هل بات تغيير الجنيه المصري الملاذ الأخير أم توجيه لقرارات المودعين؟ مركز البديل للتخطيط والدراسات ال

‫ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺩﻋﻳﻥ؟‪ ­ ‬ﻣﺭﻛﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺩﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬

‫اﻟ‬

‫ﻫﻞ ﺎت ﺘﻐ‬ ‫ﻟﻘ ارات اﻟ دﻋ ؟‬

‫ﻪ اﻟ‬

‫اﻟ ﻼذ اﻷﺨ‬

‫‪5/16/2017‬‬

‫أم ﺘ ﺠ ﻪ‬

‫‪ ۱٦ ‬ﻣﺎﻳﻭ‪۲۰۱۷ ،‬‬

‫ﻛﺛﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺩﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﻣﺅﺧﺭﺍً‪ ‬ﺣﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺁﺧﺭﻯ‪ ‬ﺃﻭ‪ ‬ﺣﺗﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺩﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺧﺗﻠﻑ‪ ‬ﻓﺋﺎﺗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﺟﺎء‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﺻﺭﻳﺣﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻭﺍﺏ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ‪ ‬ﺃﺛﺎﺭﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﻠﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺻﺭﻳﺣﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻳﺩ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﺋﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﺣﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﺟﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‪ ‬ﻭﺣﻘﻳﻘﺗﻪ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻛﺎﺳﺏ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺧﺳﺎﺋﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻭﺩ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺄﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﻫﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‪ ‬ﻳﺷﻬﺩ‪ ‬ﻓﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺗﺩﻫﻭﺭﺍ‪ ‬ﻣﻠﺣﻭﻅﺎ‪ ‬ﻭﺗﺭﺍﺟﻌﺎ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺷﺭﺍﺋﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ‪ ‬ﺑﻠﻐﺕ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﻟﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﻧﺫ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺛﻼﺛﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﻋﺎﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻗﺎﺭﺑﺕ‪ ‬ﻧﺣﻭ‪ ،%33 ‬ﻓﻳﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﺗﺑﺩﻭ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻏﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﻛﺑﺞ‪ ‬ﺟﻣﺎﺣﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺭﻓﻊ‪ ‬ﺳﻌﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ %20 ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺷﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﺑﺑﻌﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻭﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﻳﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻭﺻﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺛﺔ‪ ‬ﺻﻧﺩﻭﻕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺑﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‪ ‬ﻟﺭﻓﻊ‪ ‬ﺳﻌﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺩﺓ‪ .‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺩﺍﻭﻟﺕ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺩ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻗﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﻟﻛﺗﺭﻭﻧﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺻﺣﻔﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﺻﺭﻳﺢ‪ ‬ﻣﺳﺗﺷﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﺯﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺑﺩﺍﻟﻣﻧﻌﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﺷﺄﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ‪ ‬ﻣﺻﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺳﻳﻁﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻬﺎﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﻣﺳﺗﺷﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﺯﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺿﺢ‪ ‬ﺃﻧﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﻡ‪ ‬ﻳﺻﺭﺡ‪ ‬ﻷﻯ‪ ‬ﻭﺳﻳﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻋﻼﻣﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﻭﺟﻭﺩ‪ ‬ﻧﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻬﺩﻑ‪ ‬ﻫﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻣﺣﺎﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻌﻠﻘﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﻭﺑﺣﺙ‪ ‬ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺟﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺎذا ﻌ ﻲ ﺘﻐ‬ ‫‪1/5‬‬

‫اﻟﻌ ﻠﺔ؟‬

‫…‪http://pss.elbadil.com/2017/05/16/%D9%87%D9%84­%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA­%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%B1­%D8%A7%D9%84%D8‬‬

‫ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺩﻋﻳﻥ؟‪ ­ ‬ﻣﺭﻛﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺩﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬

‫‪5/16/2017‬‬

‫ﻳﺗﺧﺫ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺃﺷﻛﺎﻝ؛‪ ‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﺃﻧﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻗﺩ‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻧﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺱ‪ ‬ﺑﻘﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻧﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻊ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻗﻳﻣﺗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ‪ ‬ﻗﺩ‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻧﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺁﺧﺭﻯ‪ ‬ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﺩﻭﻟﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ‪ ‬ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺗﺟﺎﺭﺏ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﺗﺧﺫﺕ‪ ‬ﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﻬﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﺛﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ :‬‬ ‫ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻧﺯﻭﻳﻼ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺗﻌﺭﺿﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻷﺯﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻛﺑﻳﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﺭﺍﺟﻌﺕ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻠﺗﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﺻﻭﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻛﺑﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺑﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﺧﻁﺕ‪ ،%3000 ‬ﻗﺎﻣﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﻧﺯﻭﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻁﺭﺡ‪ ‬ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ‪ ‬ﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫‪ 500‬ﻭ‪ 5000‬ﺑﻭﻟﻳﻔﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﺳﺗﺗﺑﻌﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻁﺑﺎﻋﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ 1000 ‬ﻭ‪ 2000‬ﻭ‪ 10000‬ﻭ‪ 20000‬ﺑﻭﻟﻳﻔﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻟﺗﺩﺧﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺧﻼﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﺻﻑ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ‪ ‬ﻣﺭﺕ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻬﻧﺩ‪ ‬ﺑﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻣﺎﺛﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‪ ‬ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻧﻭﻓﻣﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻲ‪ ‬ﺑﺈﻟﻐﺎء‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺎﻣﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﻣﻼﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺑﻳﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ %80 ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺣﺟﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺑﺎﺩﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﺣﺎﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻬﻧﺩﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺳﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻬﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺿﺭﻳﺑﻲ‪ ‬ﻭﺗﻧﻅﻳﻑ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻼﺩ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺩﺍء‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻧﺣﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻬﻧﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﺗﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﺷﻬﺭ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﻣﻭﺍﻁﻧﻥ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺩﺍﻋﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻓﻰ‪ ‬ﺣﺳﺎﺑﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﻣﺻﺭﻓﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺩﻯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻌﺛﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﻳﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺏ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻬﻧﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‪ ‬ﻗﺩﺭﺗﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺳﺣﺏ‪ ‬ﺃﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻐﻁﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻧﻔﻘﺎﺗﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺷﺭﺍءء‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻁﻠﺑﺎﺗﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﺟﻬﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﺭﻛﻳﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺿﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﻛﺑﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻓﻳﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻳﺗﻌﻠﻖ‪ ‬ﺑﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺷﺭﺍﺋﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ‪ ‬ﺑﻠﻎ‪ ‬ﺳﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺻﺭﻑ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩ‪ ‬ﻧﺣﻭ‪ ‬ﻣﻠﻳﻭﻥ‪ ‬ﻭ‪ 514‬ﺃﻟﻑ‪ ‬ﻟﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﺎﻡ‪ 2005 ‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺫﻯ‪ ‬ﺟﻌﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﺿﻁﺭ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺗﺗﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺗﺑﺩﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺳﺣﺑﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﻭﺍﻕ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻁﺭﺣﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺻﻔﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻧﺣﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻁﻧﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﻓﺗﺭﻩ‪ 10 ‬ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﻻﺳﺗﺑﺩﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻛﺯﻱ‪ ‬ﻭﻓﺭﻭﻉ‪ ‬ﺑﻧﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﺎﻡ‪ 2009 ‬ﻁﺭﺣﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻔﺋﺔ‪ 200 ‬ﻟﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﻛﺎﻧﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟـ‪ 100‬ﻟﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻫﻲ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﺗﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺗﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﻩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺄﻣﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻭﺻﻌﻭﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﺯﻭﻳﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻛﻠﻔﺕ‪ ‬ﺣﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻭﻳﺞ‪ ‬ﻻﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﻧﺣﻭ‪ 1.14 ‬ﻣﻠﻳﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻳﻭﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻰ‪ ‬ﺣﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻠﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ‬ﻳﺗﺭﺍﻭﺡ‪ ‬ﺑﻳﻥ‪ 11 ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ 12 ‬ﻟﻳﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻧﺗﻬﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﻬﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﺎﻡ‪ 2016 ‬ﻣﻊ‪ ‬ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻛﺯﻱ‪ ‬ﺑﺄﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻁﻧﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﻟﻡ‪ ‬ﻳﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺑﺈﻣﻛﺎﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻟﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﻫﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻅﻝ‪ ‬ﻅﺭﻭﻑ‪ ‬ﺍﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻗﺎﺳﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺃ ُﺟﺑﺭﺕ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﺯﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻠﺗﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،1999 ‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺿﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﺃﺩﻯ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻠﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﺭﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻧﻌﻛﺱ‪ ‬ﺳﻠﺑﺎ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻘﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻳﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺑﻝ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﻳﻌﺗﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﺯﻳﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ،2004 ‬ﻣﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﺷﺭﻫﺎ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﺯﻳﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻖ‪ ‬ﻟﻭﻻ‪ ‬ﺩﺍ‪ ‬ﺳﻳﻠﻔﺎ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺗﻌﺯﺯ‪ ‬ﻗﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﺯﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻧﺎﻓﺳﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫اﺘ ﺎﻩ ﺘﻐ‬

‫اﻟﻌ ﻠﺔ اﻟ‬

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‫ﺭﺍﻭﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺛﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺑﻌﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺷﺄﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺗﺳﺎﺅﻻ‪ ‬ﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺎ‪ ”: ‬ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﺳﺗﺗﺟﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻘﺩﺭﺗﻬﺎ‪ ،“ ‬ﻭﺗﺟﻳﺏ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺎﺭﺏ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﻫﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺳﺎﺅﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻳﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺑﻳﺭ‪Hyper Inflation ‬‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﺑﺎﺏ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﺩﻓﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻔﻛﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻠﺗﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻛﻠﻳﺎ‪ ‬ﺳﻭﺍء‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺗﺑﺩﺍﻟﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻗﻳﻣﺗﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻛﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﺃﺷﺭﻧﺎ‪ ‬ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎً‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‪ ‬ﺗﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻧﻭﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺩ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‪ ‬ﺣﺎﻝ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﺻﺭ‪ ‬ﻟﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻠﺗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻫﻣﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺣﺟﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺋﻊ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻭﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺧﻼﻝ‪ ‬ﺣﺙ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺇﻳﺩﺍﻉ‪ ‬ﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻟﺩﻳﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺃﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻭﻙ‪ ‬ﺣﺗﻰ‪ ‬ﻳﺗﺳﻁﻳﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭﻫﺎ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺷﺄﻥ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﻓﻭﺍﺋﺩ‪:‬‬

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‫…‪http://pss.elbadil.com/2017/05/16/%D9%87%D9%84­%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA­%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%B1­%D8%A7%D9%84%D8‬‬

‫ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺩﻋﻳﻥ؟‪ ­ ‬ﻣﺭﻛﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺩﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬

‫‪5/16/2017‬‬

‫‪­1‬ﻣﺣﺎﺻﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺃﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺳﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺟﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺑﻭﻫﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍﻣﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺭﺅﻭﺱ‪ ‬ﺃﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺧﻔﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻳﻲ‬ ‫ﻻﺗﻣﺗﻠﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﻋﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﻫﺫﻩ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﻪ‪ ‬ﻏﺎﻟﺑﺎً‪ ‬ﺗﺩﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﻁﺭﻳﻖ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺎﻣﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﻳﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﺣﺟﻣﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ 500 ‬ﻣﻠﻳﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺳﻧﻭﻳﺎً‪ ‬ﻭﺑﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺗﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺿﺎء‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻠﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻋﻣﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍﻣﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻣﻝ‪ ‬ﺗﺣﺕ‪ ‬ﻣﻅﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺧﻔﻲ‪ ‬ﻭ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﻩ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺗﻠﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺣﺻﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺿﺭﻳﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﺔ‪ ‬ﻏﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻋﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪­2‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﺭ‪ ‬ﻳﺗﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺿﺎء‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻛﺗﻧﺎﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺗﺷﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺑﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﺭﺟﻊ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﻔﺿﻳﻼﺗﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺃﻭ‪ ‬ﺍﻋﺗﺑﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﺗﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻔﺎﻅ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‪ ‬ﺇﻳﺩﺍﻋﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﺑﻧﻭﻙ‪ ‬ﺑﺳﺑﺏ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺗﻔﻌﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺧﻼﻝ‪ ‬ﺗﻘﻠﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺭﻭﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺃﻳﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺛﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺗﺣﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﻠﻳﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻬﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﺎﺳﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻥ‪ ‬ﻳﺑﻘﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﻭﺻﻠﺕ‪ ‬ﺣﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﻳﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﺑﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‪ ‬ﻳﺩﻓﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺳﻭﺍء‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺧﻼﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺃﻭ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺧﻼﻝ‪ ‬ﺇﺻﺩﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﺷﻛﺎﻝ‪ ‬ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻘﻳﻡ‪ ‬ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺃﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻳﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻁﺑﻊ‪ ‬ﻟﻡ‪ ‬ﻳﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﻟﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻭﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﻧﺯﻭﻳﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻓﻠﻡ‪ ‬ﻳﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ،%3000 ‬ﻓﺑﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻥ‪ ‬ﺑﻭﺿﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﻟﺟﺄﺕ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﻛﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺃﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻟﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﺯﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻧﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻳﺭﻫﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﻧﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﺻﺭ‪ ‬ﻟﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﺻﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‪ ‬ﻳﺩﻓﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻐﺎء‪ ‬ﻧﻅﺎﻣﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻟﻪ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺃﺛﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻛﺎﺭﺛﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﺭﻫﻘﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﻼﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺑﺩﺍﻟﻪ‪ ‬ﺑﻧﻅﺎﻡ‪ ‬ﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺃﺧﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺗﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍً‪ ‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‪ ‬ﻣﺎﺯﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺑﺈﺟﺭﺍءﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﻭﺁﻟﻳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‪ ‬ﺩﻭﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺟﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﺣﺎﺭﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺳﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﻭﺗﺷﺟﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺝ‪ ‬ﻭﻏﻳﺭﻫﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻵﻟﻳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﺗﻬﺩﻑ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﻭﻓﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻼﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺟﻧﺑﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻧﺎ‪ ‬ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺩﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺗﻳﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﺑﺣﺙ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﻅﻧﺎً‪ ‬ﻣﻧﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺃﻧﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺳﻳﻁﺭﻩ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‪ ‬ﻳﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻣﺛﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﻛﺎﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﻛﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﻓﻘﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﺧﺗﻠﻔﺕ‪ ‬ﺃﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﺣﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻣﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﻓﻣﻧﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﻳﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺃﻧﻪ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺩﺭ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻼﺟﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺟﺫﻭﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻧﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﻳﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﺳﻳﺩﻓﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺣﺎﻓﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻭﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﺃﻧﻪ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻅﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﻡ‪ ‬ﻭﺟﻭﺩ‪ ‬ﻏﻁﺎء‪ ‬ﺫﻫﺑﻲ‪ ‬ﻛﺎﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻟﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﻧﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻛﺯﻱ‪ ‬ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻪ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﻁﺑﻊ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻼﺕ‪ ‬ﺟﺩﻳﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻊ‪ ‬ﺗﺩﻫﻭﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﺿﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻳﺎﻁﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﻓﺈﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﺳﺗﺣﺗﺎﺝ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺩ‪ ‬ﻫﺎﺋﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻳﻠﻳﻭﻧﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﻟﺻﻙ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﻓﺈﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺻﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻫﻲ‪ ‬ﻫﺩﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺛﻡ‪ ‬ﺯﻋﺯﻋﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻭ‪ ‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺟﻧﻭﻧﻲ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺳﻌﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺿﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﻫﺫ‪ ‬ﺇﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﻣﺯﻋﻭﻡ‪ ‬ﻳﻬﺩﻑ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﺟﻣﻳﻊ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﻛﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻣﻛﻥ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺋﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍﻣﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻏﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻧﺔ‪ ‬ﻛﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﺳﺑﻖ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺿﻳﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻛﻥ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﻗﺩ‪ ‬ﻳﺣﺩﺙ‪ ‬ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‪ ‬ﻋﻛﺳﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﺗﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺇﺳﺭﺍﻉ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻭﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻟﺩﻳﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‪ ‬ﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﻣﻼﺕ‪ ‬ﺃﺟﻧﺑﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺃﻭ‪ ‬ﺳﻠﻊ‪ ‬ﺗﺗﺳﻡ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺗﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﺛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺫﻫﺏ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺛﻡ‪ ‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻼﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺟﻧﺑﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺭﻭﺽ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﺳﻌﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﺭ‪ ‬ﻫﻭ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻟﻥ‪ ‬ﺗﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺗﻔﻌﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺧﻼﻝ‪ ‬ﺯﻋﻣﻬﺎ‪ ‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺭﺍء‪ ‬ﺑﻬﺩﻑ‪ ‬ﺗﺧﻔﻳﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺭﻭﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻟﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺭﻭﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻻ‪ ‬ﻳﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺏ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻲ‪ ‬ﻟﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺗﻔﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪ ‬ﺃﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻛﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ‬ﻻ‪ ‬ﻳﻣﺗﻠﻛﻭﻥ‪ ‬ﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺍﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﺎ‪ ‬ﻳﻛﻔﻲ‪ ‬ﺳﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﺣﺗﻳﺎﺟﺎﺗﻬﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻝ‪ ‬ﻫﻭ‬

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‫…‪http://pss.elbadil.com/2017/05/16/%D9%87%D9%84­%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA­%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%B1­%D8%A7%D9%84%D8‬‬

‫‪5/16/2017‬‬

‫ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺩﻋﻳﻥ؟‪ ­ ‬ﻣﺭﻛﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺩﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻧﺎﺗﺞ‪ ‬ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺭﺋﻳﺳﻲ‪ ‬ﻋﻥ‪ ‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﻳﺭﺍﺩ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﻥ‪ ‬ﺛﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻹﻧﺗﺎﺝ‪ ‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﻗﺭﺍﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﻡ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﻓﺭﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺳﻭﺍﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﺗﺎﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻗﺩﺍﻡ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺳﻳﺅﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‪ ‬ﻏﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﻣﺣﻣﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﺻﺢ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺽ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪ ‬ﻭﻫﻭ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﻗﺭﺏ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ‪ ‬ﻓﺈﻥ‪ ‬ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ‬ﻟﻥ‪ ‬ﻳﺅﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺇﻟﻰ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺳﻳﻁﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺧﻔﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺑﻝ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻛﺱ‪ ‬ﻗﺩ‪ ‬ﻳﺅﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺿﺧﻡ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻧﺧﻔﺎﺽ‪ ‬ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‪ ‬ﻓﻲ‪ ‬ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺟﻊ‬ ‫‪ 1‬ــ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ..‬ﻛﺎﺭﺛﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‪ ‬ﺃﻡ‪ ‬ﻁﻭﻕ‪ ‬ﻧﺟﺎﺓ؟‪ ،‬ﻣﻭﻗﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺭﺓ‪ ‬ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ‪13/5/2017 ،‬‬ ‫‪( goo.gl/v3trgb (http://goo.gl/v3trgb‬‬ ‫‪ 2‬ــ‪ ‬ﻣﺻﺎﺩﺭ‪ ‬ﺑـ»ﺍﻟﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ«‪ ‬ﺗﻛﺷﻑ‪ ‬ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻭﻗﻊ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺟﺯ‪ 12/5/2017 ،‬‬ ‫‪ (goo.gl/quwV4G (http://goo.gl/quwV4G‬‬ ‫‪ 3‬ــ‪ ‬ﻳﻭﺳﻑ‪ ‬ﺣﺳﻧﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺑﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﺃﻣﺎﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺻﻌﻭﺩ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﺧﺎﻭﻑ‪ ‬ﻛﺎﺭﺛﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻭﺍﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ‪ 14/5/2017 ،‬‬ ‫‪ (goo.gl/dGib6P (http://goo.gl/dGib6P‬‬ ‫‪ 4‬ــ‪ ‬ﺣﻣﺩﻱ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺫﺍ‪ ‬ﻳﺣﺩﺙ‪ ‬ﺣﺎﻝ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺷﻛﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺻﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺑﻳﺔ‪ 13/5/2017 ،‬‬ ‫‪ (goo.gl/W3zw4ncontent (http://goo.gl/W3zw4ncontent‬‬ ‫‪ ­5‬ﺍﻷﻫﺭﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺩ‪ ‬ﺷﺎﺋﻌﺔ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ..‬ﻧﺭﺻﺩ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‪ ‬ﻓﻰ‪ 9 ‬ﺩﻭﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﻳﻥ‪ ‬ﺁﻣﺎﻝ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺻﻌﻭﺩ‪ ‬ﻭﻣﺧﺎﻭﻑ‪» ‬ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺭﺛﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩﻳﺔ«‪http://arabi.ahram.org.eg/News/113179.aspx .‬‬ ‫‪ ((http://arabi.ahram.org.eg/News/113179.aspx‬‬ ‫‪ ­6‬ﺗﺭﻙ‪ ‬ﺑﺭﺱ‪ ،‬ﺗﺭﻛﻳﺎ‪ ‬ﺗُﻧﻬﻲ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻣﻠﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻳﻣﺔ‪ ‬ﻣﻊ‪ ‬ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫‪(http://www.turkpress.co/node/7440 (http://www.turkpress.co/node/7440‬‬

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‫‪(/http://pss.elbadil.com) ‬‬

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‫ﻫﻝ‪ ‬ﺑﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺟﻧﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻱ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺫ‪ ‬ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺃﻡ‪ ‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ‪ ‬ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺩﻋﻳﻥ؟‪ ­ ‬ﻣﺭﻛﺯ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺑﺩﻳﻝ‪ ‬ﻟﻠﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁ‪ ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ‬ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻳﺔ‬

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‫‪5/16/2017‬‬

‫…‪http://pss.elbadil.com/2017/05/16/%D9%87%D9%84­%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA­%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%B1­%D8%A7%D9%84%D8‬‬