Battleground Uttar Pradesh: Will BJP Retain This Crucial State?

In order to counter anti-incumbency sentiments, will the BJP change its strategy for the 2022 Assembly elections?

By Achyut Nath Jha

In Indian politics, there is a popular saying — the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow (Capital of Uttar Pradesh). In state elections too, it elects the largest numbers of MLAs — 403. In 2017, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies had a landslide victory, winning 312 seats, i.e. 110 seats more than the simple majority to rule the state Next assembly elections are scheduled for January-February next year, just six to seven months from now. Repeating this feat or even coming back to power in India’s most populous state is an uphill task as much water has flown under the bridge since 2017.

As expected, all eyes now once again focus back on the 2022 assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh even as the second and deadlier wave of the coronavirus is receding in the state. Many say that the results of the recently concluded panchayat elections this month have boosted the confidence of the main Opposition party, Samajwadi Party (SP). SP has claimed that of the 3,500 district panchayat seats which went to the polls, it supported 1,500

candidates, of which 800 won. The SP defeated the BJP in its strongholds of Varanasi, Ayodhya, Gorakhpur and Lucknow. But the ruling BJP claims that it has bettered its performance from the 2015 edition. It will be interesting to see, however, how the incumbent dispensation handles the impact of the farmers’ protest against the Centre’s new agricultural bill that have gained momentum particularly in the western parts of the state.

In the last assembly polls, BJP’s main rivals, SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could win 47 and 19 seats, respectively. The BSP, however, polled more votes than the SP. After almost completing its full term, the incumbent claims that it will return to power next year with more seats than it had won in the 2017 assembly polls even as former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav-led SP maintains that the saffron party has failed people of the UP during the pandemic and people will express their anger through their votes.

Many saw the panchayat elections as a semi-final for the assembly polls as they give an idea of the ground situation prevailing in the rural parts. The SP says the candidates supported by it performed extremely well as there is resentment against the government among the people in the countryside. The polls are not contested on party symbols but candidates effectively represent one political party or another.

Addressing media after results were declared, SP spokesperson Sunil Singh Sajan said, “The mandate, that the Samajwadi Party has got in the panchayat elections, even after misuse of power by the BJP and the administration working in their favour, proves that the people are angry and fed up with the BJP. In 2022, the BJP leaders will not be able to roam around with the party flag. The farmers are also upset with them along with unemployed youth, Dalits and those who have lost their family members due to the coronavirus are furious.” But BJP state leadership expressed satisfaction at his party’s performance while maintaining that it would have done better but for the pandemic. Party’s senior leaders say that BJP

has done remarkably well, going by the number of party-supported candidates that had won in 2015.

A section of the ruling party thinks that BJP can’t be solely blamed for a pandemic as it is a natural phenomenon prevailing all over the world. However, the Opposition alleges that people haven’t just died because of Covid but also due to the mismanagement and unpreparedness of the government. However, BJP spokesperson has reportedly said, “The BJP is the only party which has, through its organizational setup, stood with the people of the state in difficult times. Others like the SP and BSP didn’t help anyone.”

Many political observers say that it will be interesting to see if the coronavirus is able to alter the equations significantly. Akhilesh is of the opinion that Covid will be a key factor in the 2022 assembly polls. Other SP veterans are of the view that while the entire country was fighting with the coronavirus and everyone acted responsibly, Yogi Adityanath government acted irresponsibly. They say that the people who are in power, who could have arranged for beds in hospitals, oxygen, medicines, such people not just showed laxity but also embezzled funds in the name of Covid. “People, who have lost their near and dear ones due to lack of oxygen, shortage of beds and non-availability of ambulances, will not forget this cruel face of the BJP” said a senior SP leader.

As elections are approaching, observers say that political parties have already chalked out their plan and

The BJP is the only party which has, through its organizational setup, stood with the people of the state in difficult times. Others like the SP and BSP didn’t help anyone

have started to work silently towards achieving their goals. SP says that during the first wave and the second wave, party workers were helping the people. Many of those who died during the pandemic were given financial assistance by the party and even today the party has been demanding compensation for the teachers who lost their lives during panchayat election duty due to corona. State BJP leadership, however, argues that they have a lot of achievements to tell the people, right from farmers’ issues, jobs, fight against corruption and maintaining law and order and the BJP will return to power with even more seats in the 2022 assembly polls.

Many experts believe that while a slight dent has been caused to the BJP government due to over-reliance on officers, Covid won’t be able to topple it. But there are those who feel that Akhilesh Yadav has an advantage as he has strongly positioned himself as the main Opposition leader in Uttar Pradesh.

In order to counter antiincumbency sentiments, will the BJP change its strategy for the 2022 Assembly elections? However, there is broad consensus that the party may not alter its game plan or project a new face as there is very little time for any major change. The only big thing that they might do is to include some new faces in the cabinet. There won’t be any major change and it will be more or less the same as it was in 2017. The BJP might lose in some areas which were badly affected by the pandemic but it may not affect substantially. The party will be focusing more on the districts where it has performed well in the panchayat polls to ensure a win in the assembly elections.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s central leadership has started work on the party’s election strategy for the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh amidst concerns that the handling of the Covid-19 crisis could have an adverse impact on the party’s prospects in the crucial poll next year. Several senior leaders have been in a huddle in the past few days to discuss the way forward for the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah reportedly attended a meeting of the BJP and its ideological parent, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), to discuss the party's strategy. The meeting in Delhi also came at a time when the Uttar Pradesh government has been criticized for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Not just the Opposition, but members of the ruling BJP have also questioned Yogi Adityanath’s handling of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

But reports from the ground indicate that the Assembly polls in the state no longer seem a cakewalk for the BJP. After the results of the recently-held panchayat elections, even the slight shift in public mood has lifted the spirits in the ranks of the BJP’s principal rival in UP, the SP. It has taken to proclaim its slogan, ‘Akhilesh dobara’ (Akhilesh Yadav once again). But the moot question is: With Mayawati-led BSP showing a terminal decline, does Akhilesh Yadav possess the acumen to defeat the BJP’s triumvirate of Narendra ModiAmit Shah-Yogi Adityanath?

But a loss in swing state for the BJP would boost the morale of the opposition in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In addition to what was then called, ‘reverse polarization,’ the BJP’s 2017 victory, where the party and its allies won 325 seats, had come on the back of rollout of social several welfare schemes, like the Ujjwala, which provided free cooking gas cylinders to the poor and raising patriotic pitch. Can the BJP do something in the next coming months to neutralize anti-incumbency factors including anger and discontent arising on account of government’s handling of second wave of pandemic? n