Market Summary

The 2020/2021 financial year witnessed a hive of consumer activity in the vacant land market, reflected through a record high result of lot sale volumes which eclipsed the previous recent high set in 2016/2017.

This increase in volumes was driven initially by the implementation of government stimulus in response to COVID-19 – in particular the Home Builder Grant, further coupled with record low interest rate conditions, strong interstate migration into SEQ and a major increase in interstate buyer activity in the SEQ property market (and SEQ’s relative affordability).

The Ray White Special Projects Land Report Data captures all urban lot sales (lots less than 2,500 sqm) for the 2020/2021 financial year. The data demonstrated a 45.68% increase in lot sales from the corresponding financial year. Sales volumes increases were particularly notable in the corridors which had the availability of supply to service the sharp rise in consumer demand, including:

• Logan LGA: 108.53% increase in yoy vacant land settlements

• Ipswich LGA: 55.66% increase in yoy vacant land settlements

• Moreton LGA: 55.55% increase in yoy vacant land settlements

Following this period as land supply began to fail to keep up with consumer demand, the market has seen a substantial uptick in land pricing which will be witnessed through the 2021-2022 land market data set.

The data further demonstrated the rate on a $/sqm for land dropped marginally by -2.34% for the 12 months. We expect this is a result of most land developers focussing on managing lot delivery to meet demand, as opposed to an immediate increase in lot pricing.

SEQ further saw an increase in Lot Approvals of 13.35%, a likely result of the major uptake of supply in a short period requiring developers to bring forward future supply pipelines to ensure future demand can be catered for.

The top performers in price growth were three LGA’s which had existing constrained land supply and hence saw sharp reactive price growth:

• Gold Coast LGA: 7.64% yoy increase in median lot price

• Redland LGA: 6.69% yoy increase in median lot price

• Sunshine Coast LGA: 5.44% yoy increase in median lot price

Overall, the data represents a landmark 12 month period for South East Queensland, particularly with consideration to lot sale volumes. We anticipate the following 12 month period to reflect a substantial increase in lot sale prices as a result of this diminished supply and ever strong consumer demand both locally and from interstate.

Continued downward pressure on future supply for the majority of LGA’s appears to be the key trend shaping the land market at present. This downward supply trend has had substantial influence on the very strong competition and premium sale results witnessed for development sites throughout SEQ which are offered to the market particularly those sites with scale, a clear planning pathway, access to essential infrastructure and offer security of forward pipeline.