SPAN: November 1971

A CLOSER LOOK A special treatment ofthe world of photography .•• a journey through what is possible, what is different, what is exciting. A combination of patterns and colours and artistry ... a blending of the human eye, the camera lens, the darkroom enlarger.

This was the theme of a photography show held recently at Kodak's Gallery in New York to present photography as an experimental and interpretive medium. Each of the photos in the composite picture on the opposite page represents a different technique used by a photographer to express a feeling.

The rich red mixed with blue, yellow and white (top) is not finger-painting. It is the technique of equidensities as used at Kodak Pathe, Kodak's French affiliate. The picture is a black-and-white aerial photograph of the Institute Geographique Nationale in France. Each shade of grey in the photograph is assigned a colour and the negative is then printed creating the vivid effect.

The scene at upper right that looks as if it might have been taken in a tobacco field is an example of a crystal composition photographed by Robert Forrester of Los Angeles. Using a microscope, a camera and his own special knowledge of chemistry, Forrester (a New York University graduate in chemistry) photographed crystals as seen-the colours and forms are natural properties of the chemicals themselves.

The bright colours on the left side are a simple cropping of a picture of boats in a harbour and their reflections on water.

The inverted cones that could be flying saucers just below the harbour picture are the product of a special -and secret-technique worked out by photographer Winter Prather using light reflection through a lens.

To the right of Prather's photograph is an exaggerated cropping of an industrial photograph of a beaker in a chemical laboratory.

The picture of the sun is one of the winners in the "Scholastic"'Magazine photo contest. A broken railing adds composition.

The scene at lower left-yellow sky, blue trees and apparent snow on the ground-is an original Ektachrome that was used as a negative to make this transparency.

The pattern at bottom middle is a look at a television transmission tower from the ground up in blackand-white, printed in reverse.

The final scene of racehorses is a special darkroom technique developed by Leon Kuzmenov, the New York photographer who won the recent "Life" Magazine photo contest.

SPAN 2

Beauty in Industry Photographs by Milter Bedi

8

Science and Technology:

by Dr. Glenn T. Seaborg

The Years Ahead

12

The Futurists: Explorers

by Edward S. Cornish

of Tomorrow's

18

The Green Morning

by Ray Bradbury

32

The Productive Use of Manpower

by Seymour L. Wol/bein

38

Yusuf Khan

by Tom Stockley

42

A New 'Man-Made'

by Dr. N.S. Sisodia

World

Grain

Front cover: Mitter Bedi's picture of a worker's hands reveals his ability to dramatize the commonplace, a talent further demonstrated on pages 2-7.

Back cover: Model of Paolo Soleri's city of the future, which rests on stilts 63 storeys high. For more of his futuristic visions, see pages 26 to 31.

Editorial Staff: Carmen Kagal, M. Reyazuddin, Avinash Pasricha, Nirmal Sharma, Krishan Gabrani. Art Staff: B. Roy Chowdhury, Nand Katyal, Kanti Roy, Kuldip S. Jus, Gopi Gajwani, Gopal Mehra. Production Staff: Awtar S. Marwaha, Mammen Philip. Photographic Services: USIS Photo Lab. Published by the United States Information Service, Bahawalpur House, Sikandra Road, New Delhi, on behalf of the American Embassy, New Delhi. Printed by Arun K. Mehta at Vakil & Sons Private Limited, Vakils House, Sprott Road, 18 Ballard Estate, Bombay-I. Photographs: 8-M.LT. Lincoln Laboratory; 20-25-NASA; 28William Albert Allard; 29 bottom-Courtesy M.LT. Press; 32, 37Robert Moeser, U.S. Department of Labor; 40-Dan Budnik, Courtesy Woodfin Camp Inc.; 42-44-Courtesy N.S. Sisodia; 46-Inside Back Cover-Courtesy Friends magazine.

Use of SPAN articles in other publications is encouraged, except when copyrighted. For permission, write to the Editor. Subscription: One year, rupees five; single copy, fifty paise. No new subscriptions can be accepted at this time. For change of address, send old address from a recent SPAN envelope along with new address to the Circulation Manager, USIS, New Delhi. Allow six weeks for change of address to become effective.

Beauty inindustru A portfolio of industrial photographs by Mitter Bedi, who draws beauty from the cold gleam of steel and the brittle transparency of glass.

of cities and deep into the Indian countryside, the darkness of night is diffused by the glow of fluorescent lights, the glitter of a thousand bulbs. These oases of light are India's plants and factories, watering-places along a nation's path to progress. And each is a beacon of the country's industrial growth.

As these pictures show, there are innumerable other signs as well: the symmetry of batteries placed together in close-set ranks; the lattice-work of steel ON THE FRINGES

furniture, parts; the rich jewel tones of chemicals to supply a burgeoning pharmaceuticals industry.

From the fiery heart of a furnace, glass flows out to form bulbs that will light millions of homes. In these same homes music will waft in through radios, finished by delicate feminine hands.

But the source of it all, in a sense, is the laboratory where the alchemy of research scientists creates the formulas, the processes, the methods to enhance the products and hasten the pace of industry.

'ing structures

rise to alter tl,e skyline of city and country.

the thrust of industry seems upward 'hen an oil rig rushes to meet the sky in a of cables and tubes. Or when, in the concrete builders pile floor upon floor upon floor :h hallucinogenic heights.

lMES

But industry also moves horizontally-as power hums along miles of newly-strung electric wires. As its products stream out on convoys of trucks. And as factories border the highway in an unbroken chain between city and city.

TI,e pace of ce"turies is quicl,ened by newer")faster rhytl"ns.

of the glories of nature. But industry has its own harsh beauty. Thus, a fertilizer plant stretches its chimneys against the sunset and sends down reflections into a still deep pool of water.

In the vast open spaces, giant pipelines swoop downhill in a paean to power.

Apart from the sights of industry, there are its sounds: the swish of spindles in a textile mill; the whirr of cables spinning onto wheels; the gurgle of oil flowing from pipe to tank.

The projects shown on these pages represent the EVERYONE SINGS

investment of many, many crores of rupees. Some of this is private investment by American firms, the majority of which are joined in collaborative ventures with Indian companies. In addition, the u.S. Government has provided more than Rs. 2,000 crores for the development ofIndian industries. Though this sum exceeds the entire aid programme of any other nation, it is of course a small part of India's total investment.

For in a nation's pull to progress, what really counts is its own resources, its own effort, the sacrifices of its own people.

END

A marvel of modem technology, this huge 12o-foot-diameter aluminium saucer-its immeusity emphasized by the man at bottom of the photo-is used for scientific studies in radio and radar astronomy. It "maps" the surfaces of planets by radar and probes millions of light-years into space for radio signals from celestial objects. The antenna's surface is precisely parabolic within 0.025 of an inch.

AN EMINENT NOBEL LAUREATE ANSWERS THE QUESTION: ARE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO BLAME FOR THE PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD?

A BIG MYTH has sprung up in the world today. The story goes that science and technology have "had it"-that their ascendancy is over and people had better look elsewhere for ways to save mankind. This proposition is enjoying a considerable degree of popularity among certain people because of some natural reactions and reevaluations taking place in America. But to mistake these and the ensuing re-adjustments for a "decline and fall" of science and technology is a serious misjudgment.

Instead of a demise of the essential forces of modern civilization, the nation is only going through a brief period of a healthy shifting of goals and priorities and will witness, in a few years, a new emphasis on science and technology.

The tremendous growth of science and technology in only the past few decades has had a powerful effect. It has amplified the influence of man's activities and, as a result, many environmental and social problems have surfaced rather abruptly and

harshly-problems that were incipient or fore mankind. Scientists should begin to tap the vast reservoir of the knowledge simmering for a long time. that lies below what they already know.

The fact that there are no "instant" solutions to these complex problems has They should also begin to apply properly led to another "instant" response which is what they do know to the extent necessary.

Here are some examples of areas in unfortunate. Many have attacked science and technology in the mistaken belief that which scientists and engineers can expand somehow the complexities and conflicts of that knowledge and make significant new the modern world can be lessened by contributions to society, to assure a brightreducing the influence of science and tech- er future for man.

There are the earth sciences with their nology. The thrust of such thinking is wrong. It is wrong because the bad situa- vital relationship to the management of tions today cannot be ameliorated merely many environmental and economic probby the devitalization of science and tech- lems. Scientists still know little of the earth nology, by running history backwards or beneath their feet, of its geological formaby reversing the process of development. tion, stability and movement, potential for It was not an excess of science and tech- earthquakes, resources-minerals, energy nology that brought on those conditions sources and water supply. The science of but the lack of them-or more specifically, oceanography, the study of that whole their lack of depth and scope and the better other world beneath the waves, is in its integration of scientific and technological infancy. Much is yet to be learned of the atmospheric sciences if man is ever to knowledge.

Expanded knowledge holds the key to fuBy understand the complex system that solving many of the major challenges be- controls weather and climate-knowledge continued

"THE SCIENTIFIC AGE, RATHER THAN FACING A DECLINE, IS ABOUT TO ENTER A PERIOD OF NEW, SIGNIFICANT GROWTH." that can have an enormous effect on how the environment is dealt with.

If modern civilization is to prevail within that environment, certainly man's knowledge and use of chemistry and chemical engineering will have to grow. Here is a field which, for all the great strides science has made, still displays a woeful ignorance compared with what scientists need to know. The new re-cycle revolution, the problems of water systems and air pollution and the apparent conflicts between industrial chemistry and the new "environmental economics" indicate that a vast undertaking lies ahead for chemists and chemical engineers in reconciling the activities of man's modern society with his natural habitat, in re-establishing man's viability in the web of life.

The advances of chemistry must, of course, go hand in hand with those of the biological sciences to assure man's survival and progress. The emphasis on ecology opens a broad new vista of opportunities for both fields. The challenges in biology range from those of helping control human reproduction to understanding the nature, role and interactions of the most basic forms of life. Some feel that it is only through the growth of this understanding that man can advance: otherwise the increase of his indiscriminate activities will soon overstress and shatter the ecologic system at its most tenuous points and perhaps cause irreversible damage. While I cannot agree that that point is almost at hand, the possibility should be well heeded and the necessary support given to those sciences and technologies that can change About the Author: Americium, berkelium, californium, curium, einsteinium, fermium, mendelevium and plutonium are among the exotic chemical elements which Dr. Glenn T. Seaborg, working with several colleagues mostly at the Berkeley campus of the University of California, discovered between 1940 and 1958. All these elements are heavier than uranium, the heaviest naturally-occurring metal.

Dr. Seaborg's research on "transuranium" elements won him the Nobel Prize for physics in 1951 and led to his appointment as chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission 10 years later. He concluded a decade of service in that post earlier tHis year to resume work Oil the transuranium elements at Berkeley, where he was chancellorfrom 1958 to 1961.

man's destructive course.

Biology and biochemistry offer other challenges that may well be as significant as those related to environmental problems-in the long run perhaps more so.

These involve what Time magazine recently referred to as "The Promise and Peril of the New Genetics," the evolving body of knowledge that will give man such a great degree of control over human life-over disease and longevity and over human appearance, activity and behaviour.

The possibilities or implications of this branch of science highlight perhaps more than any other the fact that the scientific age, rather than facing a decline, is about to enter a period of new and significant growth. Its significance will lie in the fact that such growth will not be just an expansion of knowledge and power but will incorporate, of necessity, a greater degree of what we should call wisdom; it will be not only growth but maturation. Science and technology bring us face to face with our morality. Such a confrontation is increasing and I believe this will ultimately uplift the human race, not destroy it.

Closely allied to biology is medicine. In fact, advances in biology and biochemistry are having such a profound effect on medicine that many are saying it is experiencing a conversion from an "art" to a science.

Certainly in the years ahead when something akin to a complete "genetic mapping" and biochemical examination of a newborn individual, as well as a lifelong routine of preventive-medicine diagnostic tests, are carried out, people will be more apt to speak of the "science" rather than the "practice" of medicine.

Agriculture is another area of human activity that has flourished when dealt with scientifically and has now become inexorably bound to scientific progress. The future will see a tremendous increase in this relationship. In some way~ the Green Revolution is just beginning. The control of pests and plant diseases is a dynamic and evolutionary matter, not a battle won in a single victory. Therefore scientists will have to create and bank, on a continuing basis, a great variety of new strains of agricultural plants, almost as if participating in a game of wits with nature. Scientists also have much to learn and apply to achieve the most ecologically sound management of fertilizer, irrigation, pest control and agricultural waste.

In any list of sciences and technologies that must make new contributions to so-

ciety, physics, mathematics and engineering should not be overlooked. The range and influence of physics today is simply astounding. It reaches out to explore forces in the most distant galaxies, it probes even deeper into the structure of matter, and in between it reveals knowledge essential to developments in all man's dealings with materials and energy and their relationship with natural and man-made environment.

Such pervasiveness is also true of mathematics and the field that has become known as computer science. It is obvious now that the entire scientific revolution depends on

man's new ability, through computers, to deal with extremely complex calculations, projections and simulations. A man-computer relationship of the highest quality will be needed in the future. Such a relationship will not "diminish" man but will give him incredible new opportunities for a higher level of fulfilment.

Engineers in the years ahead will be inTechnology hastens the learning process. Audio-visual

aids like this

tape recorder below stimulate children's curiosity about new things.

volved closely in everyone of the fields mentioned, and in the most intriguing manner. Whether in the design and development of such a bioengineering item as an implantable artificial heart or of a project as large as a global environmental control system, good engineers will be essential to every step.

Sciences also bound to increase in importance and gain more support are the social sciences. Men must better understand themselves and their social relationships, and develop the ability to improve them, if they are not to see human polariza-

tion and conflict bring all else to naught.

The prophets of the decline and fall of science and technology are myopic. To believe that today's temporary setbacks are indicative of a permanent trend is not valid. The demand for good scientists and engineers is going to rise again soon. They will be assuming a wider role and greater responsibility in bringing us a healthier world and a life of quality. They will be instrumental in achieving a lasting global peace, one based not on a security enforced by fear but on that created by a well-shared and well-managed abundance.

END

Adrift on the sea of time, the earth is a fragile craft heading towards the vast unknown.

What are the forces that shape the future?

And what can man do to steer a safe course? The effort to answer these questions has given rise to a whole new field of study known as "futuristics."

he I lurisls EXPLORERS OF TOMORROW'S apparently heading faster and faster towards both Utopia and catastrophe, it is not surprising that there is a movement by scientists, businessmen, government officials, and others to forecast the kinds of things that may happen to us in the future.

The growing interest in the future arises from deep practical concerns.

Man's growing technological capabilities are being used to transform the entire earth, but the long-range consequences of what is done are largely unknown ..

On the positive side, technology has allowed the industrially-developed countries to produce an overflowing abundance of all kinds of goods. Increasing numbers of people are escaping from p,overty and are living in a style that, in times gone by, an emperor might have envied. There is at least a hope that all mankind can some day have adequate food, clothing, and shelter, and perhaps even a television set.

But the new technology has also created frightful spectres-thermonuWITH MANKIND

clear war, exhaustion of the earth's irreplaceable natural resources, overpopulation, and pollution. And so the dream of approaching Utopia is clouded by the nightmare of a vast and final global disaster.

People interested in looking seriously at .future possibilities are increasingly known as futurists, but their field is so¡ new that it still has no generally accepted name. Some futurists call what they do "futures research" -with future pluralized to emphasize that what is being studied is not a single fixed future but a whole spectrum of possibilities.

Other terms currently used or proposed include "futuristics," "futurology," "prognostics," and "fustory" --:'a contraction of "future history."

The differing terms reflect varying views of the field itself. Some futurists strongly oppose the term "futurology" because it implies a science, and one cannot have a science (at least in the sense of a body of knowledge) about what does not exist. "Futures research" suggests a scholarly enterprise, but

WORLD

much that is happening in the futures field is occurring in business or government. The imaginative proposals of science-fiction writers and Utopian thinkers quite properly belong in the field, as do, perhaps, some social experiments, such as new schools and experimental communes.

Perhaps the most neutral and inclusive term is "futuristics," and there are some indications that this term is becoming increasingly popular, at least in the United States.

Unlike the mystics who try to divine the future by interpreting tea leaves or .reading palms, futurists explicitly recognize that they cannot know the future and cannot even study the future itself. What they can and do study are ideas about what might happen in the future. In their jargon, these are called "alternative futures" or "futuribles."

A futurible is not a prediction. It is simply a statement of what might possibly happen. A futurible is one of a spectrum of possibilities. Whether a particular futurible actually becomes continued

I

reality depends on whether people de- Herman Kahn, author of such books as ists think that moves for social reform cide to make it happen.

The Year 2000 and The Emerging Jap- might go aground on the shores of Futurists generally are less confident anese Superstate, and the Institute for chemical bliss. than non-futurists in believing that they the Future in Middletown, ConnectiSerious exploration of the future now know what will actually happen in the cut). Increasingly, however, interest in is underway in many organizations. future. The typical non-futurist tacitly U.S. Treasury economists use a maththe future is spreading to physicians, assumes that things will continue much clergymen, chemists, engineers, stu- ematical model of the American econas they have in the past. The futurist omy to explore the possible impacts of dents, housewives, and many others.

The World Future Society, the larg- proposed policy changes before the knows that powerful forces for change have been set loose, and the world will est futurist association, was founded in changes are actually made. An econnever again be what it has been in the Washington, D.C., in 1966. It now has , ometric model, consisting of more than past. Tomorrow's world will be revolu100 equations, is fed into a computer about 10,000 members in 50 countries. tionized by sweeping technological, The Society publishes a journal, The along with figures representing the nasocial, and natural trends that we have Futurist, which reports the forecasts tion's current economic situation. An economist can then vary certain factors hardly begun to perceive, much less that scientists and others are making understand or control. for the coming decades, and has estab- that the government can control--tax see Futurists also point out that if it were lished chapters in a growing number of and interest rates, for instance-to possible to know what the future will be cities so that futurists can hold face-towhat happens. like, futuristics would be a useless face meetings and compare notes. The academic amusement. A knowable fu- Society's First General Assembly, held Futurists knpw tb,8t ture is a predetermined one, and if the in Washington earlier this year, drew powerful forces for change future is predetermined, man can do more than a thousand people for a widenothing to change it. The value of ranging, freewheeling series of debates have b en set loose, studying possible futures is that we can on what might happen in the future. and the world will never again shape tomorrow more wisely. CharacProminent Americans at the Assembly be what it was. teristically, futurists talk about "inventincluded Glenn T. Seaborg, former ing the future" -a phrase popularized Chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy by the British physicist Dennis Gabor, Commission (and a director of the Suppose the income tax were inSociety); Orville L. Freeman, President who wrote a book with that title. creased by one per cent. The computer The task of the futurist is to imagine of Business International Corporation solves all the equations. The economist a variety of possible futures, and to and former U.S. Secretary of Agricullooks to see if there is any improvement study and evaluate them. Thus he plays ture (also a director of the Society); in terms of such government goals as three distinct roles: He is artist, scientist, psychologist B.F. Skinner; and authorfull employment, maximum output, a and cost-benefit analyst. As artist, he critic Marya Mannes. high growth rate, constant prices, and must create out of his imagination what A glance through recent issues of The equilibrium in the balance of payments. did not exist-an image of a possible Futurist reveals the many concerns that A computer can make 20 simulations of future. As scientist, he must analyse his futurists have. One article explores the the economy in 10 minutes. creation, determining its likelihood and various proposals that have been made Another method of exploring the fupossible consequences. As cost-benefit for instituting greater harmony among ture is the so-called Delphi technique, analyst, he must evaluate the possible nations. Another article explores the developed at the Rand Corporation in future in terms 'of the value system of future of the family, one of the most Santa Monica, California. The goal here the organization or government that battered institutions in the western is to arrive at a consensus of expert employs him. world. Noting that there is a growing opinions concerning a possible future Though all of us may be classed as trend towards a marriage-divorce-redevelopment. But instead of calling the futurists if we take a serious interest in marriage pattern (often called "serial experts together, a Delphi practitioner what lies ahead, a class of professional monogamy"), the article discusses such interviews them individually (perhaps or full-time futurists is developing. possibilities as contract marriages hav- by mail or by a computerized system These people, who are paid to think ing a stated time duration (with option to operating over telephone lines), thereabout the future, are now found most renew), polygamy, and group marriage. by avoiding the undesirable effects of frequently in urban and regional planThe recent development of means for. group interaction. No prestigious (or ning bureaus, in corporation offices people to experience elation by means loud) panel member unduly influences dealing with marketing and long-range of drugs or electrical stimulation of the the results. planning, in social science departments brain (ESB) is another issue that conWhenever a participant offers a foreof universities, and in research institutes cerns futurists. How. will men manage cast that differs markedly from the fore(especially policy research institutes like I their affairs if they are made constantly cast of other participants, he is asked the Hudson Institute, whose director is happy by means of drugs? Some futur- . to give his reasons, and these reasons

are passed on to the other participants who may then revise their own views.

Tests indicate that polls taken with the Delphi technique do indeed result in more accurate forecasts than are produced when the experts are assembled or when the opinions of experts are simply averaged.

Still another method used by futurists is the writing of "scenarios." A scenario is an attempt to describe, by means of a logical sequence of events, how a certain situation might develop. The scenario technique generally focuses on certain crucial decisions or turning points for alternative actions. A futurist concerned with maintaining peace might imagine the creation of an international peacekeeping force, and then develop a series of scenarios to explore how his imaginary force might snuff out future conflicts before they explode into world wars.

Spurring the intensifying interest in the future is a growing realization that the pace of social change is increasingly rapid. A century or two ago, a man could live his whole life in a community that remained substantially the same.

Today a community may change almost totally in the space of 10 or 20 years: There are new people, new activities, new mores, and new surroundings.

We are experiencing a kind of time compression. What used to take a century now is done in a few years. Symbolic of the time compression is the evershortening interval between a scientific discovery and its practical application.

Photography, based on an 18th-century discovery, required 112 years before it was used to make pictures. The telephone, based on a 19th-century advance, required only 56 years. In the 20th century, television leaped from discovery to application in only 12 years, the atomic bomb in five, and the transistor in three.

Technological chang~ brings social change, though the effects are delayed.

The steam engine had little impact on the contemporaries of Newcomen and Watt, but it revolutionized life in the 19th century. The automobile has had so many impacts on human life that a I mere listing of them would probably I fill volumes. For example, it created the

modern suburbs, because people in outlying areas no longer needed to live within walking distance of a railroad station. Before the automobile appeared, the countryside around cities was dotted with towns, each separated byan expanse of farms and forests. The automobile made accessible every part of the countryside where a road could be built, and so the areas between the towns were filled in with the sprawling suburbs that now surround most big cities in the western world.

The full impact of a new technology is often slow to be felt, because it takes time for the technology to be diffused through the world, and social institutions do not immediately respond. A television set appears first as an amusement, then politicians discover its power, and the character of political campaigns changes. A new type of candidate may be sought-one who is photogenic and perhaps wealthy (to pay for the cost of broadcasting). Then the political system may begin to redress the balance, by limiting campaign expenditures. A long chain of action producing reaction and further action runs through the society.

What is happening is that social change touched off by technological changes made years ago is now racing through our society. What once was unthinkable becomes an everyday reality. The equalization of opportunities for blacks in the United States has occurred with great rapidity, though not as fast as many would like; prejudice against blacks (as indicated by public opinion polls) has dropped rapidly, and already it is possible to foresee a not distant day when the United States will have true racial equality. Accomplishing this required a major upheaval in attitudes and institutions, yet it is only one of many that now are occurring.

Some social scientists estimate that the changes in society during the next 10 years will amount to three or four times as many as in the past 10. This means that the world of the 1980s could be as different from the 1970s' world as our present world is from the world of the 1930s.

We are in an historic transition,

though we do not know what the nature of this transition really is. It may result in a change in human life that will be even greater than the change from savagery to civilization.

In his best-selling book Future Shock, Alvin Toffier notes some of the characteristics of this revolutionary period.

One is transience-the temporariness of everything. We live in a throw-away world where objects are made to be used for only a few times, and then junked. People change their residence with increasing frequency; each year one out of five Americans changes his residence, so that a person finds it difficult to retain the same circle offriends even if he stays throughout his life in the same place. During his lifetime, most of his friends will have moved away.

In addition to transience, the modern world is characterized by novelty: We are constantly confronted with things that we .never experienced before-new styles of architecture, new words, and new electronic systems. At the same time there is a growing diversity of the things that we experience. Where once we worried about uniformity, now we worry about the lack of uniformity.

We live in a world where more and more things come in different modds, a world in which we constantly confront people with different life styles, clothing, music, and occupations.

Rapid social change may result in what Toffier calls "future shock." Anthropologists have long spoken of culture shock-the disorientation that a person experiences when he is set down in a culture that is very different from his own: a California dentist in a Punjabi village, or a Nepalese peasant in a Paris cafe. Today a person does not have to move from one country to another .to experience culture shock, because his own culture is changing so fast. During a few decades, the life of his community may change completely. Today people born when there were no automobiles are having to adjust psychically to spacecraft, satellites, moon landings.

Very little is known about the effects that this rapid change is having on. people. But there is some evidence that change does have a very real psychic continued

impact. Researchers at the University of Washington found that people who have experienced a great deal of change in their personal lives (death of a spouse, move to a new home, etc.) were much more likely to become physically ill than those who have not.

If this is true, society may wish to become. more selective about the changes it institutes. Already there is a growing "technology assessment" movement.

The idea is that a new technology should be critically studied and its probable impacts assessed before it is applied.

Too often, advocates say, a new technology has been applied whenever ,a businessman thought it might help make a profit or whenever a governmerit thought it might help win a war.

A bill. to establish an Office of Technology Assessment is now before the U.S. Congress and may come up for action in 1972.

There is also a growing "people's technology assessment" - a periodic outburst of public wrath at the introduction of technology that is considered to be opposed to the public interest.

This type of assessment resulted in Congressional rejecti.on in 1971 of further government expenditures for the supersonic transport (SST) plane.

Most people have only a vague notion of the broad trends that are shaping the world of the future, because the trends rarely make "news." A two per cent increase in population each. year may seem insignificant, but it means a doubling in 31 years.,A city that doubles in size inevitably becomes very different in character. Imagine a Tokyo or a New York or a Calcutta with twice as many people as it presently has.

The extremely rapid growth of world population, which will double in the next 32 years at the present rate of increase, is one of the crucial problems that futurists are concerned about. Another extremely important trend, which is even less well understood, is theenormous increase in the world's industrial plant. Between 1959 and 1969, industrial production went up by 114 per cent, according to the United Nations Statistical Yearbook.

Our first impulse is to rejoice that

there now are more factories making more goods to supply the world's people, . but some scientists fear that the increase in industrialization is so polluting the atmosphere that the air all over the world may some day become deadly poisonous or that the dust from combustion may blanket the earth so that not enough sunlight reaches it, and the world may enter another ice age.

The main task for tile world is to iBstBute policies that will permit an orderly trausitioD to equililwium. ~ An Italian economist and businessman, Aurelio Peccei, vice chairman of the board of Olivetti and a member of the board of Fiat, became so alarmed at these mounting world problems that in 1968 he founded a unique organization known as the Club of Rome to try to head off global disaster.

The Club found funds for an unusual research project at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). This effort, known as the Project on the Predicament of Mankind, is directed

by Professor Dennis L. Meadows and uses the system dynamics method developed by Professor Jay W. Forrester which was previously applied to understanding the dynamics of business organizations and cities.

The MIT group has created a series of models of the world system. These models--each is actually a series of mathematical formulae-describe the interaction of population, industrialization, natural resources, pollution, and so forth. To create the model, the researchers rely on the findings of other scientists concerning how one variable relates to another.' For example, an increase in the amount offuel consumed increases in most cases the amount of pollution entering the atmosphere.

After the complex mathematical world model is entered into a computer, the researchers can study what happens as these interactions continue through. time. The interactions are so compli~

cated that the human mind simply cannot cope with them.

Using this procedure, the MIT researchers have made a variety ~f projections of what may happen between now and the year 2100. It should be emphasized that these are projections-.:not forecasts of what actually will happen. In each case, the researchers are interested in trying to find out what may happen IF-IF the world's natural resources continue to be used up at the present rate, IF population continues to grow at the present rate, IF pollution continues to increase as fast as it is now.

Based on the work so far, Meadows reports that there seems to be no possibility of sufficient technological and cultural progress occurring in the next 100 years to sustain as many as 14 thousand million people on our globe. This means that some time within the next 60 years the world's population will undergo a profound deceleration, he says.

Deceleration of population growth. might be accomplished through a decrease in births (contraception or abortion) or by an increase in deaths (starvation, pollution, war, etc.).

The main task for the world, as Meadows sees it, is to institute a set of policies that will permit the world to negotiate an orderly transition to equilibrium. Already many futurists are speculating about the nature of a "steady state" society, and how to attain it.

Despite the very sobering projections of the MIT group, futurists generally remain optimistic about the future. It may be that one has to be somewhat optimistic about oncoming times if he is interested in studying them, but it may also be that serious study of the future tends to increase a person's optimism. Though there are an enormous number of cataclysms and disasters that can be discerned on the horizon, there are also many enticing dreams.

Most futurists are hopeful that man can realize Utopia rather than disasterespecially if he devotes more attention to looking towards what lies ahead.

About tbe Author: Mr. Cornish is president of the World Future Society in Washington, which has a membership of 3,000. A science writer, he was formerly a United Press correspondent.

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Ray Bradbury, one of America's most famous novelists, has made science fiction a literary art. Although written more than 20 years ago, this story reflects mUll)' of man's environmental concerns today: reforestation, the quality of human l(fe, man's relationship to nature, the role played by every living thing, plant and animal, in the whole complex ecology of life.

TH R N M RNIN WHENTHESUNSEThe crouched by the path and cooked a small supper and listened to the fire crack while he put the food in his mouth and chewed thoughtfully. It had been a day not unlike 30 others, with many neat holes dug in the dawn hours, seeds dropped in, and water brought from the bright canals. Now, with an iron weariness in his slight body, he lay and watched the sky colour from one darkness to another.

His name was Benjamin Driscoll, and he was 31 years old. And the thing that he wanted was Mars grown green and tall with trees and foliage, producing air, more air, growing larger with each season; trees to cool the towns in the boiling summer, trees to hold back the winter winds. There were so many things a tree could do: add colour, provide shade, drop fruit, or become a children's playground, a whole sky universe to climb and hang from; an architecture of food and pleasure, that was a tree. But most of all the trees would distil an icy air for the lungs, and a gentle rustling for the ear when you lay nights in your snowy bed and were gentled to sleep by the sound.

He lay listening to the dark earth gather itself, waiting for the sun, for the rains that hadn't come yet. His ear to the ground, he could hear the feet of the years ahead moving at a distance, and he imagined the seeds he had placed today sprouting up with green and taking hold on the sky, pushing out branch after branch, until Mars was an afternoon forest, Mars was a shining orchard.

In the early morning, with the small sun lifting faintly among the folded hills, he would be up and finished with a smoky breakfast in a few minutes and, trod ding out the fire ashes, be on his way with knapsacks, testing, digging, placing seed or sprout, tamping lightly, watering, going on, whistling, looking at the clear sky brightening towards a warm noon.

"You need the air," he told his night fire. The fire was a ruddy, lively companion that snapped back at you, that slept close by with drowsy pink eyes warm through the chilly night. "We all need the air. It's a thin air here on Mars. You get tired so soon.

It's like living in the Andes, in South America, high. You inhale and don't get anything. It doesn't satisfy."

He felt his rib cage. In 30days, how it had grown. To take in more air, they would all have to build their lungs. Or plant more trees.

"That's what I'm here for," he said. The fire popped. "In Reprinted from The Martian Chronicles by Ray Bradbury, published by Doubleday & Co., Incorporated. Copyright Š 1946, 1949. 1950 by Ray Bradbury. lIsed by permission of the Harold Matson Company. Incorporated.

school they told a story about Johnny Appleseed walking across America planting apple trees. Well, I'm doing more. I'm planting oaks, elms, and maples, every kind of tree, aspens and deodars and chestnuts. Instead of making just fruit for the stomach, I'm making air for the lungs. When those trees grow up some year, think of the oxygen they'll make!"

He remembered his arrival on Mars. Like a thousand others, he had gazed out upon a still morning and thought, How do I fit here? What will I do? Is there a job for me?

Then he had fainted.

Someone pushed a vial of ammonia to his nose and, coughing, he came around.

"You'll be all right," said the doctor.

"What happened?"

"The air's pretty thin. Some can't take it. I think you'll have to go back to Earth."

"No!" He sat up and almost immediately felt his .eyes darken and Mars revolve twice around under him. His nostrils dilated and he forced his lungs to drink in deep nothingness. "I'll be all right. I've got to stay here!"

They let him lie gasping in horrid fish-like motions. And he turned his head to look across the Martian fields and hills. He brought them to focus, and the first thing he noticed was that there were no trees, no trees at all, as far as you could look in any direction. The land was down upon itself, a land of black loam, but nothing on it, not even grass. Air, he thought, the thin stuff whistling in his nostrils. Air, air. And on top of hills, or in their shadows, or even by little creeks, not a tree and not a single green blade of grass. Of course! He felt the answer came not from his mind, but his lungs and his throat. And the thought was like a sudden gust of pure oxygen, raising him up. Trees and grass. He looked down at his hands and turned them over. He would plant trees and grass. That would be his job, to fight against the very thing that might prevent his staying here. He would have a private horticultural war with Mars. There lay the old soil, and the plants of it so ancient they had worn themselves out. But what if new forms were introduced? Earth trees, great mimosas and weeping willows and magnolias and magnificent eucalyptus. What then?

There was no guessing what mineral wealth hid in the soil, untapped because of the old ferns, flowers, bushes, and trees had tired themselves to death.

"Let me up!" he shouted. "I've got to see the Co-ordinator!"

He and the Co-ordinator had talked an entire morning about things that grew and were green. It would be months, if not years, before organized planting began. So far, frosted food was brought from Earth in flying icicles; a few community gardens were greening up in hydroponic plants.

"Meanwhile," said the Co-ordinator, "it's your job. We'll get what seed we can for you, a little equipment. Space on the rockets is mighty precious now. I'm afraid, since these first towns are mining communities, there won't be much sympathy for your tree planting .... " "But you'll let me do it?"

They let him do it. Provided with a single motorcycle, its bin full of rich seeds and sprouts, he had parked his vehicle in the valley wilderness and struck out on foot over the land.

That had been 30 days ago, and he had never glanced back.

For looking back would have been sickening to the heart. The weather was excessively dry; it was doubtful if any seeds had sprouted yet. Perhaps his entire campaign, his four weeks of bending and scooping were lost. He kept his eyes only ahead of him, going on down this wide shallow valley under the sun, away from First Town, waiting for the rains to come.

Clouds were gathering over the dry mountains now as he drew his blanket over his shoulders. Mars was a place as unpredictable as time. He felt the baked hills simmering down into frosty night, and he thought of the rich, inky soil, a soil so black and shiny it almost crawled and stirred in your fist, a rank soil from which might sprout gigantic beanstalks from which, with bone-shaking concussion, might crop screaming giants.

The fire fluttered into sleepy ash. The air tremored to the distant roll of a cartwheel. Thunder. A sudden odour of water. Tonight, he thought, and put his hand out to feel for rain. Tonight.

He awoke to a tap on his brow.

Water ran down his nose into his lips. Another drop hit his eye, blurring it. Another splashed his chin.

The rain.

Raw, gently, and easy, it mizzled out of the high air, a special elixir, tasting of spells and stars and air, carrying a peppery dust in it, and moving like a rare light sherry on his tongue.

Rain.

He sat up. He let the blanket fall and his blue denim shirt spot, whilethe rain took on more solid drops. The fire looked as though an invisible animal were dancing on it, crushing it, until it was

angry smoke. The rain fell. The great black lid of sky cracked in six powdery blue chips, like a marvellous crackled glaze, and rushed down. He saw ten billion rain crystals, hesitating long enough to be photographed by the electrical display. Then darkness and water.

He was drenched to the skin, but he held his face up and let the water hit his eyelids, laughing. He clapped his hands together and stepped up and walked around his little camp, and it was one o'clock in the morning.

It rained steadily for two hours and then stopped. The stars came out, freshly washed and clearer than ever.

Changing into dry clothes from his cellophane pack, Mr. Benjamin Driscoll lay down and went happily to sleep.

The sun rose slowly among the hills. It broke out upon the land quietly and wakened Mr. Driscoll where he lay.

He waited a moment before arising. He had worked and waited a long hot month, and now, standing up, he turned at last and faced the direction from which he had come.

It was a green morning.

As far as he could see the trees were standing up against the sky. Not one tree, not two, not a dozen, but the thousands he had planted in seed and sprout. And not little trees, no, not saplings, not little tender shoots, but great trees, huge trees, trees as tall as ten men, green and green and huge and round and full, trees shimmering their metallic leaves, trees whispering, trees in a line over hills, lemon trees, lime trees, redwoods and mimosas and oaks and elms and aspens, cherry, maple, ash, apple, orange, eucalyptus, stung by a tumultuous rain, nourished by alien and magical soil and, even as he watched, throwing out new branches, popping open new buds.

"Impossible!" cried Mr. Benjamin Driscoll.

But the valley and the morning were green.

And The Air! All about, the oxygen blowing from the green trees. You could see it shimmer high in crystal billows. Oxygen, fresh, pure, green, cold oxygen turning the valley into a river delta. In a moment the town doors would flip wide, people would run out through the new miracle of oxygen, sniffing, gusting in lungfuls of it, cheeks pinking with it, noses frozen with it, lungs revivified, hearts leaping, and worn bodies lifted into a dance.

Mr. Benjamin Driscoll took one long deep drink of green END water air. . . .

After "twelve fantastic days," the Apollo-I5 men sit in a recovery raft in the Pacific awaiting pick-up by helicopter. From left are David Scott, James Irwin and Alfred Worden.

On the moon, the astronauts set up various instruments, right, known as ALSEP (for Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Package) , designed to measure a variety of phenomena such as the moonquakes. meteorites hitting the moon, magneticforces on and near the moon.

APOLLO 15 A SCIENTIFIC BONANZA a moment of dramatic silence as Apollo 15's skipper, David Scott, stepped out of his lander "Falcon" and faced the dazzling, incandescent light of lunar midday.

Then he exclaimed, "Fantastic!" Silence again. broken this time by the philosopher in Scott: "As I stand here in the wonders of the unknown at Hadley, I try to understand the fundamental truth of our nature. Man must explore. This is exploration at its greatest." And indeed Scott and his teammate, James Irwin, faced the most awesome lunar terrain ever investigated.

After a three-and-a-half-day almost flawless journey that began on, July 26, 1971, at Cape Kennedy, the astronauts landed 1,800 feet from their target in the Marsh of Decay, a crater-pocked, chasm-sliced valley at the base of the 15,000-foot Apennine Mountains. A little further lay Hadley Rille, a mile-wide gorge whose origin has long mystified earth-bound scientists and which, it is hoped. contains virgin rocks-the moon's original crust at the time of its formation.

While the two men were unloading their scientific instruments and the lunar rover from the lander, the third member of crew, Alfred Worden, was already at work-taking photographs and conducting experiments in the command ship. "Endeavour," orbiting the moon. The rover, like any earthly vehicle, had a fault: the buggy's front-wheel steering did not function. However, the astronauts found that it was ready to go with its back wheels steering. Clambering aboard, fastening seat-belts. Scott pushed the control lever and the rover went forward. "Whew!" yelled Scott. "It's reaJly rolling." Thus began Apollo 15's mission on the moon-"the most important scientificendeavour of all time."

THERE WAS

To commemorate the memory of the eight American and six Soviet astronauts who died on duty, the Apollo-I5 crew left behind on the moon this plaque, left, bearing their names. In the foreground is a figurine of a fallen spaceman.

James Irwin salutes the U.S. /lag, right, implanted in the moon's surface. The "Falcon" is in the centre and the lunar vehicle at right.

In the background is Hadley Delta.

Above is a close-up view of a portion of a rock-strewn crater the Apollo-15 astronauts termed as "relatively fresh." The Apennine Front is in the left background and Hadley Delta in the right background.

Standing on the slope of Hadley Delta, David Scott, above right, photographs surface features. The moon buggy is partially visible in the background.

The base of the Apennine Mountains, seen in the distance. is about 17 km away.

Linear structuring is visible in this view of Silver Spur. right, in the Hadley Rille region. Geologists predict the photographs the spacemen have brought back will prove as valuable as the lunar rocb and soil samples.

"THEREIS some beautiful geology out there," radioed Scott as he and Irwin explored the moon on their first lunar outing. With extraordinary competence, they reported on the rugged terrain and gave descriptions of the rocks. For the eager geologists, this five-mile,six-and-a-half-hour excursion produced few surprises. But what really "rocked" mission control in Houston was the astronauts' second trip.

"Guess what we just found," Scott said excitedly. "Crystalline rock," explained Irwin. "Oh boy, I think we might have ourselves something close to anorthosite." It is believed that anorthosite rock formed the original crust of the moon.

Thus the rock collected by the astronauts may well be as ancient as the moon itself.

Hadley Rille-the astronauts' target for their third driveproved to be another scientific bonanza. The Rille's opposite wall, observed the men, consisted of a series of horizontal layers, much like a picture of terrestrial strata in a geology textbook. This discovery triggered speculation that the process responsible for forming the lunar seas in the distant past had involved many flows of lava, not just one.

After scooping up rocks from the lip of the Rille, Scott and Irwin returned to the lander to prepare for their departure. The two astronauts spent a record time of 67 hours (continued) on the lunar surface.

Up IN HIS high-flying laboratory, Alfred Worden was far from idle. The scientific instrument module (SIM), attached to the rear part of the command ship, contained eight experiments. And the immediate results of these experiments were so impressive that many scientists in Houston leaped with joy. But what followed was still more startling. Worden spotted a 4O-square-milefield of cinder cones, which jubilant geologists called the first definite sign of explosive volcanism on the moon-evidence of "one of the moon's last belches."

Even after "Falcon" reunited with the "Endeavour," the scientific tasks continued. Worden triggered the release of a 78.5-pound subsatellite in the moon's orbit which will transmit data on the moon's magnetic and gravitational field for about a year.

Once the "Endeavour" was homeward bound, things quietened a bit for the three men. However, one important task was still to be accomplished: to collect two film cassettes from the service module. Making an exit from the ship, Alfred Worden made the first true "deep space" walknearly 200,000 miles above the earth-to reach the service module. "I'm enjoying it," he radioed, as he retrieved the films. The descent of the craft through the earth's atmosphere was, however, less than flawless. One of its three parachutes failed to open. Without it, the Apollo 15 landed 14 per cent faster than normal, leading to a splashdown "hard enough to make you remember you'd landed," according to astronaut Wally Schirra. Landing just seven miles from the recovery ship, U.S.S. Okinawa, the Apollo-15 men were again back home after accomplishing mankind's most ambitious scientific expedition. Alfred Worden best capsulized the feelings of the astronauts: "We've just finished the most fantastic twelve days I've ever had in my life." Then he added, "It sure is nice to see you all."

But for the scientists the "nice" thing was the 180 pounds of lunar rocks and hundreds of photographs through which they hope to unlock the door to lunar END history.

Left: James Irwin checks scientific equipment on the lunar rover. The lander "Falcon" is at left. In centre background is the St. George Crater, five kilometres away, near the base of the Apennine Front.

Descending slightly faster than normal due to the failure of one of its parachutes, the craft, below, nears its splashdown in the Pacific. In emergencies, however, the ship can operate safely even with one chute.

Scott works with a drill to dig two IO-foot holes, one to obtain lunar soil and the other to measure the flow of heat from the moon's interior. Such readings could offer clues to the composition and origin of the moon.

OIBMAI'S BLUEPRIIT FORTaB

rUTURE

Dreamer, visionary, architect, ecologist, sculptor-Paolo Soleri is all these, and more.

He is also an "arcologist"-creator of cities a mile above the earth's surface and of a whole new concept of urban living.

the Plexiglas picture windows girding the horizon you take in the panorama of lush meadows, rolling hills and stands of trees. The air is light, clear-and the countryside is visible for miles. You relax in your apartment half a mile high, which you occupy in proximity with a million or so neighbours. Yet you feel neither cramped nor isolated. All the amenities of lifeyour office, shops, theatres, parks and even the airport-are only a brief elevator drop and a IS-minute walk away. There are no streets clogged with the stench and noise of traffic, no discordant jets screeching overhead-there are only the vagrant and harmonious sounds of nature.

You live in an "arcology"-a city housed in a building a mile high. It is a city in which there are no automobiles, and therefore no smog; where people travel by foot on ramps, bridges, spans, elevators and stairs. No more wasted time in traffic jams nor wasted expense in car maintenance and gasoline ... all the power for transportation comes from nuclear reactors far down within the city's massive foundations.

This is the substance of one man's OUT OF

Looking almost as insubstantial as the dream it embodies is Soleri's model of Arcosanti, above, the small cityonly J ,500 peoplethat he plans to build first. Made of concrete, steel and aluminium, it will be approximately 150feet high and 800 feet in length.

Within its vertical columns, at left, Arcosanti provides dormitory units, each of which would be high enough for occupants to build balconies for beds or study alcoves.

Scale is shown by the human figures in the modcl.

A pilot model arcology, Arcosanti is Soleri's first opportunity to translate his vision into reality. vision of the future. His name is Paolo Soleri, a 52-year-old architect, sculptor and ecologist-dreamer to some, messiah to others. Soleri believes that arcology-a combination of architecture and ecology -is the answer to the modern malady of urban sprawl, pollution, waste and a gradually desecrated and destroyed countryside. He is a man urged on by a sense of impending ecological disaster. For almost a decade he has quietly spread the gospel

At the foot of the mesa where Arcosanti will rise, above, young volunteers last year put up structures for builders' residences and storage of materials and equipment.

The drawing at right shows the great semicircular apses which will house nine storeys of workshops on either side of the arcology.

Left, an intense, brooding Soleri pauses before his model of 3-D Jersey, a 300-storey combination city and supersonic air terminal.

that architects and planners must infuse their professionalism with a concern for the whole "system" of human life. To him arcology is in effect the life raft for a world drowning in its own pollution.

"There might not be any other way," he says, "to save ourselves. Today's cities are evil. They do not work for man, but against him. We may as well go back into the wilderness. A city that worked for man would give to the individual and collective mind the greatest freedom ever known."

In February 1970, Soleri displayed the fruits of his genius at the Corcoran Gallery of Art in Washington, D.C. For years he had worked out his ideas for cities, airports and bridges on thousands of feet of

brown paper. Now Soleri's ideas electrified the exhibit halls-vast models and yards of drawings on long scrolls of paper, with his comments etched in metaphysical flights of prose. To walk into the halls was to enter a beautiful, bizarre, unreal world ... to wander among vast geometric fantasies of the future ... to see cities shaped like mushrooms, beehives and exquisite dreams.

Some are designed to fit inside a canyon, or occupy a mesa or fill an enormous spherical space above the earth's surface.

Thousands of Washingtonians and visitors crowded the galleries to witness, marvel and disagree about the meaning and import of these architectural visions. Instead of the reverential hush that descends

"Today's cities are evil.

They do not work for man, but against him." over many art exhibits, viewers were provoked to conversation, argument and squeals of delight. It was without question a provocative show. You either saw it as an apocalyptic vision of the millennium, or as a most blatant architectural hoax.

An intens~, wiry man with thoughtful eyes, Paolo Soleri looks the visionary. He went to the United States in 1947 from his native Turin, Italy, and studied briefly with Frank Lloyd Wright. In the mid-'50s he moved to the 4i-acre Paradise Valley settlement, now called the Co santi Foundation, near Scottsdale, Arizona. There he began to work out his architectural/philosophical ideas.

Soleri's career reflects a gradual reali-

zation that the architect of the future must design whole cities rather than single buildings. He compares the difference between a conventional city and arcology to the difference between a plant, with its large surface area and low energy utilization, and an animal, which comes in a compact package and is able to make high use of energy. He describes the arcology as a huge, complex, "biosensitive" organism, and in fact, biomorphic shapes abound in his work. His models of bridge projects, for example, have the sculptural spareness of bones.

Like the human organism, arcology depends upon miniaturization and centralization. A city of one million people, for example, has thousands of miles of sewer and water mains; an arcology for the same number would have a few hundred miles.

A city has millions of sources of air pollution thai must be monitored and control-

led; the air in an arcology would be filtered and processed at a central point. Because it is self-contained, an arcology would not "impose upon" its environment, Soleri says. His arcologies would compress populations and free the land for farming and recreation.

Paolo Soleri's visions have touched the imagination of many, particularly the young. In the summer of 1970, with the aid of his students and apprentices, he began breaking ground for Arcosanti II, a pilot model arcology, near his studio.

This microarcology is to be approximately 150 feet high and about 800 feet in length, built of concrete, steel and aluminium.

The structure will provide living and recreation areas', offices and studios for up, to 1,500 people-educators, planners, businessmen, politicians, artists and others.

It is the architect's first opportunity to turn his vision into reali ty.

END

THE UTILIZATION of a country's work force as the productive pathway towards achieving national goals is the heart and substance of a human-resource development policy.

In its all-encompassing sense it concerns itself with all three phases of the life-span of an individual: (1) education and learning before entry into the labour force; (2) recruitment, selection, job performance and assessment, training and re-training, career development, income and labour standards during working life; and (3) the conditions of living after the completion of a person's years in the work force.

All of these forces interact with each other and net out to some reckoning of how a nation's population contributes its manpower potential for the national and individual good.

In this article I wish to focus on three aspects of this phenomenon. The first is predicated upon the proposition that the manpower utilization/productivity problem can be validly perceived only in terms of the dynamics of social and economic change prevailing in a given country.

Part A, "Social and Economic Change," illustrates this for the United States by reference to six major changes now operating there with great force, and then refers briefly to some of the manpower consequences of these changes. The U.S. experience, if only by the rapidity of the changes it is undergoing and the major results they have engendered, reflects some of the potentialities of the direction in which most countries of the world may move.

Part B, "The Three Matching National Policies," emphasizes the fact that manpower policy and programmes do not operate in a vacuum. They are, as a matter of fact, inextricably bound up with related national policy goals-particularly those which deal with economic development and income policy.

Within this context, Part C, "Strategic Factors in Manpower Utilization and Productivity," outlines 15 general principles to which policy and programme in this field should normally be responsive. They are distilled from experience in many countries of the world during the past quarter-century.

Left: Workers stream out of Ingalls Shipyard in Mississippi, a company which is well known for hiring and training unskilled labour.

Social and Economic jobs each year for the past 20 years to the point where only about four-and-a-half Change As is the case with million agricultural workers produce all all national policy, the food, feed, and fibre for a population manpower develop- of over 200,000,000 persons, plus the ment has to relate not amounts exported to oth,::r parts of the only to the situation world. Another result has been the migraas it exists at a given tion of millions of persons to the urban time, but has to be responsive to the cur- metropolitan areas from the rural regions, with consequent problems of manpower rent scene and future changes.

The six changes affecting the manpower utilization for different parts ofthe country.

2. Employment Change. Another conscene in the U.S.A. which are reviewed very briefly here may differ in degree from sequence has been the dramatic change in what prevails elsewhere, but they are quite the industrial distribution of the employed similar in direction to the changes occur- population. In the U.S.A. today, most ring in most parts of the world. Represent- workers are no longer engaged in the proing as they do such basic parameters as a duction of goods, even though the output country's technology and its employment of mining, construction, agriculture, and structure as well as the fundamentals of manufacturing has never been higher. its population and manpower profile, they Instead, two out of every three workers go to make up the framework in which in the U.S.A. work in a sector which transportamanpower policy and programme have to "produces" services-trade, tion, finance and insurance, providing be designed.

1. Technological Change. Of obvious personal services in hospitals, education, import to the matter of manpower utiliza- entertainment, and the like, and operating tion and productivity is the factor of chang- in government.

As might be expected, the distribution ing technology. In the U.S.A., output per man-hour, i.e., the amount of goods and of occupations has followed suit, and by services produced for each hour of work now the biggest single bloc of workers is put in, has increased at the rate of 3 per no longer in production and maintenance, but rather in the office, professional, cent per annum for the past 25 years. Asa result, output per man-hour is up 100 per managerial, clerical, sales and technical cent, i.e., has doubled during this interval. category. The number of professional Just as important has been the differen- personnel alone has overtaken the number tial rate of increase among various eco- of all skilled workers in the U.S.A. 3. Geographic Change. All this has gennomic sectors. Thus, the biggest rise of all in productivity has taken place in agricul- erated significant changes in the very geture, resulting in a decline of about 200,000 ography of employment opportunity, which

has by no means been confined to the ruralurban shift. Even within urban, metropolitan areas themselves there have been major shifts in the location of jobs between the "inner cities" and the suburban rings.

Concentrations of employment increases have reached the point where one out of every six jobs is now located in just three of the 50 states of the U.S.A. Perhaps the most important point to make in this connection is that manpow~r has emerged as a pivotal factor in the location of industry and business. The improving technologies of fuel, transport, and power have combined to free industry from previously rigid locational factors (such as proximity to water-power or coal) and have enabled it to be responsive to where the need really is, i.e., to the availability of a supply of manpower both in the quantity and of the quality required.

4. Educational Change. Of similarly obvious import to the manpower arena has been the burgeoning increase in schooling of the population and the labour force.

Approximately 60 per cent of the U.S. population between the ages of 5 and 34 is enrolled in formally-established schools; some eight million persons were enrolled in colleges and universities in the autumn of 1970, and the number is projected to rise to 10 million by 1975. As a result, the median years of school completed by the labour force are now more than a high-school sequence (12.5 years).

These changes are, of course, responsive to the changing employment structure, but there is still a long way to go in adding quality performance to the quantitative side of this picture, particularly in the vocational arena which is supposed to produce the needed manual talent. As is pointed out later, most manual workers receive their job skills through employment experiend~ rather than in school.

5. Population Change. Like most other countries, the U.S.A. has experienced very substantial population growth during the past quarter-century, putting special emphasis on the younger part of the population pyramid. Approximately one out of every three people alive in the.United States today was not yet born 15 years ago.

Although birth-rates have fallen recently, these rates are now applicable to the higher population reflected in past high birth-rates, so that the actual number of annual births in the United States is not expected to decline until the 1980s. The geography of population change also has

contained major differentials. Between 1960 and 1970, the population actually declined. in some states (West Virginia, Wyoming, and North and South Dakota) and rose by as much as 50 per cent in others.

6. Manpower Change. A country's manpower profile rarely remains the same over time, and is, in fact, subject to enormous changes which have to be taken into account in all manpower planning. In the U.S.A., between 1965 and 1975, for example, there is expected to be a 20 per cent increase in the work force. However, the increase will amount to over double that (40 per cent) among persons aged 20 to 34, but will actually decline by about fiveand-a-half per cent in the age group 35-45.

Workers 35-45 years of age in 1975 (born during the Depression decade of the 1930s when the birth-rate also was severely depressed) will decrease by about one million.

Many other manpower sectors will also display great differential growth to which manpower policy and programmes will have to be responsive. For example, the projected percentage increase in the number of female workers will be about 50 per cent above that of males in the period 1965-75,as will the increase in black workers in comparison with white workers.

The Three Matching National Policies Manpower policies and their implementing programmes, particularly in the area of utilization, affect and are in turn affected by other national policies. The nature and conditions-and consequences-of these interacting impacts have to be recognized and taken into account in formulating and designing the basic principles on which action in the manpower field is to be based.

As a rule, the most relevant national policies involved are those which attempt to deal with the social and economic changes described in Part A of this article, and, while they have differed in many details among the various nations of the world, they have for the most part followed three major pathways in their attempt to achieve national goals.

1. The first, economic policy, while its specific design and format will differ from time to time and place to place, has as its main thrust the achievement of rates of economic growth which are high enough to provide employment opportunities for

all who seek them. Various nations have devised a wide array of fiscal and monetary measures as well as international economic policies which attempt to assure attainment of this national goal.

2. The achievement of high levels and rates of economic growth and corresponding employment opportunities do not assure the presence of an adequate amount of hands, skills, and talents needed to perform the tasks involved. Manpower policy, therefore, has as its goal the provision of information, guidance, counselling, education, training and re-training, recruitment selection, and career development of the labour force for these purposes.

3. Adequate economic growth and manpower resources are rarely considered as sufficiently satisfying national goals, and work-income policy attempts to assure the provision of an equally adequate income from work for a decent level of living, fair labour standards in the work force, programme operations without discrimination, and some level of security in periods of life when needed, e.g., during unemployment or in retirement.

During the past quarter-century all parts of the world have seen a very extensive development of policies and programmes to implement these three national policies.

In America today, economic policy has to contend with such factors as rapidly rising prices, and has therefore to devise measures to damp economic growth sufficiently to retard spiralling prices.

This is an excellent example of how interrelated the three national policy goals are, because the damping of economic growth, at the same time, had major manpower consequences in retarding employment growth to the point where it has generated unemployment.

Manpower programmes also developed enormously in the United States during the decade of the 1960s; they reached the point where a total of one million training and re-training slots are being provided annually by all the different programmes.

These programmes have gained significantly from the fact that increasing numbers of jobs have been available because of advancing economic growth; at the same time, they have been able to help meet the demand for labour in many shortage occupations which might otherwise restrain economic growth or even add to price pressures.

The comprehensive manpower plan proposed by President Nixon contains an in-

teresting illustration of the overt recognition of the connection between economic and manpower policy by calling for an automatic increase of 10 per cent in funds for manpower programmes whenever the national unemployment rate exceeds 4.5 per cent for three consecutive months.

Examples in the work-income field in the United States vary from those provisions of the Fair Labor Standards Act which provide for a minimum wage for workers in eligible trades to the recent proposals to lift families out of poverty.

The pIOneering active manpower and economic policies in Sweden, the recent industrial-training legislation in Britain, the new manpower-training programmes in Canada, the education and job-training measures in Israel, as well as those in many other countries of the world, illustrate not only the burgeoning growth of manpower policy but also its relationships to other national policy goals in the context of a given country's stage of development. The International Labour Organization's Asian Manpower Plan is also directed towards achieving these goals on a regional basis.

In all cases it has been demonstrated that economic policy can be sterile if it is not accompanied by manpower development; similarly manpower programmes can have seriously deleterious effects if they are not accompanied by viable job opportunities; and all this-if not actually dangerous in political terms-is of small avail if levels of living are not improved as well. Formulation of policies in each of these three arenas must, therefore, necessarily assess the implications they have for the others.

Strategic Factors in Manpower Utilization and Productivity The manpower-utilization - and - productivity constellation of a country's overall national policy has witnessed substantial growth and development during the last quarter-century all over the world, and it is possible to discern some overriding strategic principles which have emerged from this course of events. Without attempting to be encyclopaedic or all-encompassing; and recognizing that different strategies need different emphases at different stages of a nation's development, it is possible to list and briefly review 15 general principles in the manpower-utiliza-

tion-and-productivity arenas which warrant implementation as matters of both policy and programme. Each is important in itself; together they create a critical mass which can generate significant positive development.

I. One of the cardinal principles to emerge in recent years is the need for an evolutionary course of development in this field, with emphasis on a balance between manpower and economic development.

While bursts of change are appropriate at certain intervals, the consequences of being out of phase in the relationship between the demand for various skills and their supply can be very serious in any country, whatever its stage of industrial development.

The often-noted presence of so-called "over-educated" persons is a direct result of violation of this strategy. This principle stems directly from the emphasis suggested in Part B of this article on the need for simultaneity, of tandem policy formulation and implementation in both the manpower and economic fields. To keep the two in phase, to have them interact, is just about the best vantage point for successful consummation of manpower utilization/ productivity goals.

2. For much the same reason, there has to be simultaneity and complementarity between "education" and "training." For this purpose I would define education as the first round of learning which the individual receives, while training would be defined to cover all subsequent encounters with the learning process in which an individual can make up for any deficiencies in the first round to update what he has learned, or to prepare himself for a new phase of his working life.

By definition, the existence to begin with-and the quality performance in addition-of training and re-training institutions and opportunities is a necessary condition for successful manpower utilization.

Of equal importance, however, is the fact that successful training and re-training efforts take place in and with the support of the country's industrial, commercial, and business establishments, thereby providing an extremely important step in also helping to achieve the first strategy, i.e., keeping economic and manpower development in step.

Even in countries with highly developed and sophisticated systems of education, such as the United States, the great bulk of blue-collar manual workers learn their

trade on the job, and the bulk of whitecollar workers, including highly qualified manpower, get their re-training with the support, and through the efforts, of their employing institutions.

3. It is therefore profitable, even if repetitive, to make a separate point of, and to emphasize, the need to maintain a balance between two essential verities: that economic development and the building of an effective demand for hands, skills, and talents is a necessary although not sufficient condition for successful programmes of manpower utilization and productivity-and that effective manpower utilization/productivity programmes are a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for successful economic development of a nation. The engagement of the employing institutions themselves in developing, providing, and supporting needed manpower programmes is a most effective strategy for success in this field.

4. There is also substantial evidence to support the principle that the development of concepts and techniques for enhancing the utilization and productivity of a nation's work force-again no matter what the stage of development of a countrycannot emerge in all of its ramifications, full-blown at one time. It needs experimentation and actual demonstration in order to perceive the factors which yield the desired results, before substantial commitment to a specific course of action.

5. Such action underscores another parameter of successful strategy in this general field, i.e., the need for carefully designed and mounted research in the various concepts and techniques of manpower training and utilization, objective evaluation of the results in accordance with agreed-upon criteria and standards and, most important, the communication of the results to all those engaged in the process in order that everyone know and understand what has succeeded and what has failed. A co-ordinated system of research-evaluation-information, with timely feedback into the manpower policy and programme channels, is a major element in minimizing costs, avoiding duplicative effort, and accelerating forward movement of successful programmes.

6. One of the most direct, yet frequently overlooked, routes towards improvement of manpower utilization and productivity is represented by policies and programmes aimed at those already employed, particularly those at the lower echelons of the continued

skill ladder. The upgrading of the labour force already on hand not only yields an increased supply of more skilled personnel at potentially higher earnings, but also creates additional opportunities in the ranks vacated by those who have been upgraded.

7. The experience of the recent past has emphasized the substantial progress that can be made by accompanying policies and programmes designed to improve the labour supply with analogues in redesigning labour demand to fit existing labour supply. This experience has demonstrated that there is a very wide array of jobs which can be re-arranged and reclassified to permit the employment of persons with more elementary skills and that, as a matter of fact, there is a very wide array of jobs the educational and training prerequisites for which are too high, relative to the actual demands they make for successful performance.

In America, for example, recent programmes have uncovered a substantial number of jobs for which a high-school education was an entry prerequisite, but whose actual duties were in no way related to that kind of educational attainment.

Relaxation of these prerequisites has led to the hiring and successful job performance of persons without high-school diplomas.

8. The previous seven points underline the importance of an additional strategy, i.e., the formulation at the national level of a comprehensive policy which deliberately involves the combined efforts of both manpower and education personnel and programmes which operate in this arena.

Recent experience in many countries of the world demonstrates the critical importance of providing (and, indeed, requiring) a design, a format for formulating and implementing policies which set goals and meld the efforts of educational and manpower institutions at national, regional and local levels.

9. In many, if not most, countries of the world, major migrations of the population as well as significant locational shifts in the geography of jobs are, and will be, taking place. It becomes very important, therefore, to take this factor deliberately and overtly into account in the . design of manpower programmes. The shift of people from rural to urban settings, the increased mobility of industry under advancing technology, makes the matter of geographic manpower-matching a key force in enhancing the utilization and productivity of a nation's labour force.

The specifics of the policies, programmes and techniques in this strategy vary with time and place, of course, but recent experience has given special emphasis to the need for mobility assistance coupled with a wide range of supportive services to those who move in response to economic opportunity.

10. The need for comprehensive, allencompassing manpower policy is underscored again by noting the requirement that since manpower utilization, and particularly productivity, can depend in a critical way on the introduction of improved technology, the very management of such change has to be considered as part of an overall manpower strategy. During the past quarter-century in many countries of the world, governments (as a matter of public policy) and industry (as a matter of labour-management relations) have made adjustment to technological change a subject of urgent concern-particularly the factor of adaptation of the labour force through training and re-training to the new technology.

11. The first 10 principles noted so far relate to policy, programme and institutional forces in the manpower utilization/ productivity field. The next five relate to the people themselves. To begin with, recent experience has again demonstrated the need to formulate manpower policy and design manpower programmes based on the fundamental strategy that everyone can be trained and re-trained for some viable position in a nation's work force.

In the United States, for example, a variety of experimental and demonstration projects have shown the manpower potentialities of such diverse groups as persons with minimal education, including functional illiterates; persons with major physical and mental handicaps; the socially and economically disadvantaged, etc. Implementation of policy and programmes grounded inthis principle has enhanced the utilization of all manpower sectors, and resulted in net economic gains as well as human gains.

12. By the same token, everyone, without exception, needs training and retraining, particularly in the context of efforts to improve the utilization of manpower and its productivity. This point illustrates the interactions among the various strategies reviewed in this Part, since the recognition that everyone needs to be trained and re-trained also requires the provision of institutions with the capability of affording the needed curricula and materials for carrying all this out. It also

emphasizes the need for training and retraining throughout the working life of an individual, so that he may continue to be as flexible and responsive as possible to the changing demands of a changing economy under conditions of changing technology.

13. The principle that everyone can be, and that everyone needs to be, trained and re-trained in the face of change has to be accompanied by one other associated strategy, because change is by no means' always a welcome phenomenon, and institutions as well as persons often question and even resist change. An understanding of the forces affecting change, and a perception of the need for meeting its consequences, should be part of the educational process itself, with emphasis upon the obligation of the individual to keep in as adaptable as possible a stance to cope with and benefit from it.

14. Events of the recent past have demonstrated both the feasibility of, and the substantial gains which ensue from, the use of indigenous populations as trainers and related personnel in the training process itself. In America, for example, there ' have been significant successes in the training of disadvantaged groups by people from those very groups. As is to be expected, their understanding of not only the problems but also the aims and aspirations of their own groups is unexcelled.

15. Finally, all these strategies are predicated upon a fundamental, overridingly important proposition: that all manpo';Ver training and re-training efforts-and particularly those which focus on the utilization of the work force-have to operate with the knowledge of the aptitudes, talents,' skills, interests, and aspirations of the individuals themselves.

Policies with the greatest success are those which recognize the huge range of individual differences and mount programmes which deliberately take those differences into account, in the places where those programmes are carried out, in their content and in the techniques they use to provide the needed training and re-training.

END About the Author: Seymour Wol/bein is Dean of the School of Business Administration at Temple University, Phi/adelphia. Prior to his appointment at the university, he was for many years a high official of the U.S. Department of Labor, having served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Manpower and as head of the Office of Manpower, Automation & Training. Dr. Wol/bein visited India last winter, taking part in several seminars.

Thanks to a recent co-operative programme, this Navajo Indian woman now has a good job close to home.

The worker at left is taking a radiotelevision repair course from which he will learn new technical skills.

Indian champion teaches squash in Seattle YUSUF KHAN's OPPONENT emerged from the court dripping with perspiration, his Tshirt sticking to his back and chest. Khan, his dark wavy hair in place, followed, looking as refreshed as if he had been for a walk over a country meadow in springtime.

Strolling into the men's locker room of the College Club in Seattle, he sat down, propped his legs on another chair and lit a king-sized cigarette.

It would be but a moment's break before another squash student appeared ready to take on the master. There would be a steady stream of students until 7 o'clock that night. Then Khan, an internationally noted squash player, would return to his home less tired than most businessmen who have spent the day at a desk. ,"I teach seven to eight hours a day now," he said before returning to the court, "and I'm starting to teach on week-ends and evenings, too. There's no doubt squash is becoming very popular in Seattle."

While he's too modest to admit it, the recent popularity here 9f the English game is because of Khan.

Since he arrived three years ago from his native Bombay, his fame as a player has put Seattle on the map in the squash world.

In addition, he has formed an excellent team and inspired enthusiasm among members of the College Club, Seattle Tennis Club

Reprinted from The Seattle Times.

Copyright Š 1971, The Seattle Times.

and Washington Athletic Club.

"It's really interesting how he teaches," says Dr. Paul Eggertsen. one of his students. "He starts feeding you shots that you have trouble with. You'll get 'em all day long! Suddenly your game starts improving and you wonder why.

And he hasn't said a single word!

He's really the perfect teacher."

Khan actually started playing tennis first, as a boy in India.

"My brother wanted me to try squash. I said, 'No, that's a lady's game. I'm not interested'."

He became interested enough to win the national championship of India 10 times and did likewise with tennis. It wasn't long before he was playing all over the world.

His shots have actually been timed at 100 miles an hour.

When Khan was hired by the College Club, he had never been in the United States before.

"I really like the American way of playing. They use a harder ball than the English. It's much more stylish," he says.

He has won many fans off the court as well, and a new wife.

He and Mrs. Khan (Jane) live across the street from Volunteer Park in a huge home that has boxes of broken racquets in the dining room and exotic Indian music playing on the tape recorder.

At the age of 36, he has the best of two worlds: He is the tops in teaching and still plays in professional tournaments. Added to that is the satisfaction of making END Seattle a squash capital.

David Smith in his Bolton Landing studio.

FOR MORE than 30 years, the late David Smith thundered around his isolated studio in Bolton Landing, New York, hoisting slabs of steel, pounding iron rods, and welding together the inventive shapes that made him the foremost American sculptor of his generation. Like some latter-day Vulcan, he forged in those three decades a prolific body of work who~e might and durability reflected his own powerful personality. Now on view in most major museums and private collections throughout the world, Smith's works stand as daring monuments to their maker. By the time of his death in a car accident in 1965, he had perfected a personal style which culminated in the massive "Cubi" series of stainless-steel structures, such as "Cubitotem 7 and 6" (1961). A man of blunt speech and warm heart, Smith scorned learned analysis of his works, once remarking: "It always astounds me that I can make something that somebody doesn't understand." Instead, he kept hammering away with one consuming interest: "To make the best damn sculpture I can make."

Beauty and brutality are the twin tensions in the sculpture of David Smith.

"Possibly steel is so beautiful," he once said, "because of all the functions associated with it. Yet it is also brutal: the rapist, the murderer and the death-dealing giants are also its offspring." The bridging of these two qualities was the lifetime work of David Smith. While Alexander Calder won fame early by making sculpture move and Jacques Lipchitz hammered out a personal vision using traditional casting techniques, Smith chose to wrestle with the raw materials of the steel age. As a result, his art, which was frequently exhibited and lavishly praised during his lifetime, was

VULGANOF MODERN ART For more than three decades this extraordinary New Yorker hoisted slabs of steel, pounded rods of iron to forge sculptures of great power and beauty. nevertheless somehow resistant to easy appreciation and it wasn't until the past decade that the scope of his influence on American art was fully acknowledged. As a practising painter in the 1920s, Smith was impressed by some illustrations he saw of Pablo Picasso's early welded sculptures.

Having already learned the rudiments of industrial metalcraft as a riveter in an automobile plant in South Bend, Indiana, Smith applied his workaday experience to high artistic purpose, and welded sculpture -then held in little repute in genteel art circles-became his central interest and

commitment. Though the Russian Constructivists (Vladimir Tatlin, Naum Gabo and others) pioneered in the medium, it was relatively new and undeveloped when Smith turned to it, although he certainly knew of their work, having journeyed to the Soviet Union in 1935. But he brought to welded sculpture his blazing independence and a distinctive native workmanship. This spirit is caught in the photograph of Smith's work, "Helmholtzian Landscape," shown at far right. The photograph is a portrait of the complete sculpture with details from the same sculpture superimposed to accent the exquisite craftsmanship. Characteristically, the artist himself had the last, and just possibly the best, word about his own art: "I do not work with a conscious and specific conviction about a piece of sculpture. . . . It should be a celebration, one of surprise, not one rehearsed. The sculpture work is a statement of identity. It is part of my work stream .... In a sense it is never finished.

Only the essence is stated, the key presented to the beholder for further travel."

Bolton Landing was home, studio, outdoor museum, factory and inspiration for David Smith. When he sat there, brooding over his collected works, the sculptor himself took on their timeless quality. "I feel no tradition," he once wrote. "I feel great spaces. I feel my own time. I am disconnected. I belong to no mores, no party, no religion, no school of thought, no institution. If you ask me why I make sculpture, I must answer that it is my way of life, my balance, and my justification for being. I think we ought to very simply let art be what the artist says it is. And what the artist says it is, you can see by his work. I would like to leave it like that."

END

"Helmholtzian Landscape" ( 1946), steel, 40 centimetres high.

Left: "Cubitotem 7 and 6" (1961).

From left: "Circle 11J," "Circle 1J," "Circle I" ( 1962) , steel.

ANEW'

-MADE' GRAIN

What happens when plant scientists cross wheat with rye?

The result is triticale, a new hybrid grain species that is high-yielding, resistant to drought and rich in protein.

According to research scientists at lawaharlal Nehru Agricultural University in labalpur, the 'man-made' crop has tremendous potential for increasing food production, particularly in India's vast monsoon-dependent areas.

Left: Triticale heads in comparison with Kalyan Sana, a popular Indian high-yielding wheat variety. In general, triticale has approximately 50 per cent more kernels in each head of grain.

Above: Derivation of common wheat and triticale.

In crosses with durum wheat, scientists substituted the cultivated crop rye for the weedy species <goat Krass' to get a more productive hybrid rariety.

continued SPAN NOVEMBER

1971

43

What can triticale do for India? Its THEGREENREVOLUTION is without doubt most important being that some of the most important characteristics, from our a long-awaited and most welcome devel- flowers failed to develop a seed. opment in Indian agriculture. However, it Initially durum wheat could not be point of view, are that it is resistant to remains a continuing race to keep increases crossed with rye. But around 1950, the drought and suitable for making chapatis. in food production well ahead of those perfecting of the technique of growing the In the countries of the West, triticale's use in population. Also, it is limited to well- young embryos in a glass tube made the is at present limited because it is not suitirrigated areas. Despite the vast irrigation development of durumfrye hybrids possi- able for bread of the types they prefer.

Being more drought-resistant than potential in India, there are many difficul- ble. In contrast to the earlier ones, these ties in the way of its being realized quickly. triticales had considerable vigour and wheat, triticale has potential for increasing rain-fed grain production. Wheat yields And the economic gap between farmers other commercially desirable qualities. pursuing the two types of agricultureUntil the University of Manitoba pro- under rain-fed conditions average five irrigated and rain-fed-is widening. gramme started in 1954, there were no quintals a hectare. Without being overRecently, therefore, there has been organized attempts to develop the new optimistic, we can foresee suitably develgreater emphasis on stepping up rain-fed triticales into a commercial crop. In 1958, oped varieties of triticale yielding 10 agricultural production. Besides the con- before a world gathering of wheat scien- quintals a hectare and covering 50 per cent ventional approaches, experiments with tists, Dean L.H. Shebeski of Manitoba of the wheat acreage in the country. This newer crops, better suited to such condiUniversity speculated that durum wheat would amount to a net increased productions, can be highly rewarding. Triticale, crossed with a cultivated crop like rye tion of about 1.5 million tonnes-a 20 per recently developed by plant scientists in should result in a more productive grain cent increase over India's total wheat proCanada and elsewhere, is such a crop. species than the present-day common duction, equivalent in value to approxiCommon wheat, the most important wheat. Plant scientists responded by pro- mately Rs. 100 crores. (This estimate is on cereal, originated as a natural hybrid of ducing several hundred such triticales the basis of 1961-65 figures.)

Because its protein is higher in both three grass-like species-each of which from different wheat and rye varieties all individually lacked any apparent com- over the world. Triticales selected from quality and quantity, triticale would also mercial potential. In the early '50s, plant these were then intercrossed to combine provide a more nutritious diet to that large scientists began to wonder, "Could man all the desired characteristics in a single sector of India's population whose daily ever equal or even surpass this remarkable variety with commercial potential. Result: intake is mainly wheat and a small amount achievement of nature's by combining Manitoba released a commercial variety of pulses. A recent U.S. nutritional study grain species of already-proven worth?" in 1969; triticale is being grown commer- on field mice showed that triticale protein With this question in mind, the University cially in America, Hungary and Spain. is 50 per cent more efficient biologically of Manitoba, Canada, started out in 1954 Yields of 24 quintals per hectare in than wheat protein. on a programme of species synthesis. The. poor, sandy soils without irrigation have To sum up: while the triticale of yester. been reported from Hungary, and up to day appears a scientific curiosity, the tritioutcome was triticale.

What is triticale? Basically, it is a "man100 quintals per hectare under irrigated cale of today is proving more productive made" grain species, a hybrid of wheat conditions, from the United States. In and nutritive than such cereal crops as and rye. Rye, a cereal crop little known general, plant scientists estimate a 50 per wheat. This superiority has been attained in India, is more drought-resistant than cent yield advantage over wheat grown in a mere 15 years, and great possibilities wheat and higher-yielding under poor under identical conditions. Several scien- still lie unexplored. From its performance moisture conditions. tists are now working in different parts of in other countries, suitably developed A cross between two species possesses the world to develop triticale further. varieties of triticale appear to have a great characteristics of both, but ordinarily has In Madhya Pradesh, 94 per cent of the potential for increased production not no hope of posterity-as in the well-known three million hectares of wheat is grown only in the rain-fed, but also in the irriinstance of the mule. Produced by crossing under rain-fed conditions with very poor gated areas of India. horse and donkey, the mule can never be yields. The state's Jawaharlal Nehru AgriOf course, since it is a new grain, we made fertile. In the case of triticale, how- cultural University, headquartered atJabalcan anticipate technical and human probever, fertility can be restored by treating pur, is the first institution in India to initi- lems cropping up in its successful introits chromosomes with a drug called col- ate a large-scale programme on the new duction in India. But the potential in triticale chicine. Thread-like bodies present in plant species, in co-operation with the University is there, and it must and will be explored END cells,chromosomes are carriers of heredity. of Manitoba. Work is also in progress, on thoroughly.

There are two main kinds of cultivated a smaller scale, at the Indian Agricultural About the Author: A native of the Madhya Pradesh village of Kesur, Dr. N.S. Sisodia has wheat: common wheat (known in India as Research Institute in New Delhi. pissi) and durum wheat (kathia). While Some 250 strains of triticale, 120 strains long been associated with triticale research in durum has a higher yield potential and is of rye, and other useful material were in- Canada, where he graduated from the University of Manitoba. After gaining his doctorate more drought-resistant, common wheat is troduced last year and grown at Jabalpur. in 1964, he worked on sugarcane in the Caribsuperior to it in bread-making qualities.

Some strains seemed promising and are bean State of Barbados till 1967. Later he The first triticales were produced by being tested more thoroughly this year. returned to research on triticale with a private crossing common wheat with rye. A At the same time, work is in progress to firm in California. In early 1970 he joined distinguished Swedish scientist, Dr. A. develop newer triticales, using Indian Jawaharlal Nehru Agricultural University, at Mlintzing, pioneered in research on these. wheats in an attempt to develop varieties whose Indore campus he is now working on the However, they had certain defects, the better suited to our local requirements. dry-land agriculture project.

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Three hundred and fiI~i1grims

Freshfood is cooked every day of the two-week Thanksgiving demonstration at Plimoth Plantation, above left. The Pilgrims did 'much of their cooking outdoors-but never tasted a turkey like the one at right. Clams, above, were called "quahogs" by the Pilgrims. Left: Wood chips are usedfor fuel.

held

Chestnuts are slit and cooked in jackets, below.

Haddock,left, is broiled and smoked simultaneously.

Bottom: A view of Miles Standish house.

Though the roast turkey lords the modern Thanksgiving table, it is a far cry from the tougher wild bird that the Pilgrims knew.

"FOR FISH AND FOWL,we have great abundance. Fresh cod, in the summer, is but coarse meat with us. Our bay is full of lobsters ... and affordeth a variety of other fish. In September, we can get a hogshead of eels in a night. with small labour ... the earth sendeth forth naturally very good sallet herbs (i.e., vegetables, like lettuce and endive, for salads). Here are grapes, white and red, and very sweet and strong; strawberries, gooseberries, raspberries, and plums of three sorts .... " The above is an excerpt from a letter sent by a Pilgrim colonist in Massachusetts to a friend in England, shortly after the first Thanksgiving. Most of this abundance, of course, was available only during the summer months. The Pilgrims had to put away a reserve offood to get them through the winter adequately, and that was the reason for the first Thanksgiving celebration in 1621.

They'd had a late but reasonable harvest (after a disastrous first winter that wiped out about half of their number), and-s,ince a harvest festival was traditional in rural England, an autumn feast of Thanksgiving seemed doubly appropriate in their new home.

Edward Winslow, the writer quoted above, was a . signer of the Mayflower Compact. He also left an account of how that first Thanksgiving got under way: "Our harvest being gotten in, our Governor William Bradford sent four men on fowling, that so we might, after a more special manner, rejoice together after we had gathered the fruit of our labours. They four, on one day, killed as much fowl as, with a little help besides, served the company (about 50 survivors) almost a week." Describing the arrival of the American Indian guests, he goes on, "At which time, amongst other recreations, we exercised our anns, many of the Indians coming amongst us, and amongst the rest, their greatest king, Massasoyt, with some 90 men; whom, for three days, we entertained and feasted. And they went out and killed five deer; which they brought to the Plantation; and bestowed on our Governor, and upon the Captain (Miles Standishj and others."

Despite the fact that almost every American child is taught the rudiments of Puritan history, many misconceptions and old myths linger on about the Pilgrim colonists. It's not true, for instance, that they all wore sombre black and grey clothes, or that they were a sober, cheerless bunch. The accompanying photographs of employees at Plimoth Plantation (a reconstruction of This article has been reprinted by permission from the Friends magazine. Copyright Š 1970 Ceco Publishing Company.

life 350 years ago, with all details carefully researched) give an accurate presentation of how they lived and dressed, and one has only to study court records and other documents from the period to dispel the idea that they were unusually straitlaced in behaviour. It's true, however, that in 1622 their deportment was compared favourably with that of the settlers in Virginia.

John Pory had spent three years in the Virginia colony, and after visiting the Plimoth settlement wrote, "Now as concerning the quality of the people, how happy were it for our people in the Southern Colony if they were as free from wickedness and vice as these are in this place!"

Old accounts such as these give a surprisingly complete history of the early colonial days, and form the basis for the reconstruction of Plimoth Plantation and the Thanksgiving feast that is held there each year. The original celebration is believed to have taken place close to harvest time-September or October-rather than late November as now. Plimoth Plantation duplicates the original feast as closely as possible. Main items on the Pilgrim menu were compound dishes (pies, puddings, stews, pottages) prepared according to the English custom of the period, and containing various combinations of venison, rabbit, beaver, and squirrel, and game birds such as turkey, duck, quail, and pigeon.

Often oysters and clams would be added. The puddings were boiled by tying the ingredients in a clean linen cloth and suspending them in boiling water or broth.

The meat puddings would have a crust made of flour and suet (from kidneys). Pease pudding-still obtainable to this day in English delicatessens-was made of old mealy peas boiled in a sueted cloth. Stews and pottages were slow, simmering affairs containing any vegetables and meats available, and boosted with seafoods.

These main dishes would be accompanied by roasts of venison and small game and great steaming platters of boiled and baked fish, notably cod and haddock.

Although roast turkey lords the modern Thanksgiving table, it is a far cry from the tougher wild bird that the Pilgrims knew. For them, turkey was just another side dish among a host of other game birds.

Eels were almost a delicacy-they would be roasted in their skins or pickled in vinegar.

When venison is not obtainable at the present Plantation, other meat is substituted. However, the settlers were short of fresh green vegetables for years, and were probably restricted to wild salad greens. Their bread would have been made of barley or maize flour; the whole repast washed down with ale or fruit wines.

END