SPAN: March/April 1974

THE END OF SCARCITY

by Daniel Bell MISSING THE BOAT IN POPULATION POLICY?

by Chanchal Sa rkar

" ~--'

THE REAL VILLAIN IN HEART DISEASE .by C.P. Gilmore JASPER JOHNS'S EWSIVE BULCS·EYE

by Robert Hughes

SPAN 4 A Vision Equal to the Challenge by Dr. Henry A LEITER FROM THE PUBUSHER

The World Resources Shortage: of Everything?

5 Are We Running Out 10 A More

Open and Equitable World

'

.

The world resources· shortage.

Queues of people (facing page )-to buy kerosene, food, and other essentials-are increasingly common in all nations of the world. The soaring price of crude oil will hurt the developing world at 'least as much as the industrialized nations, for it will affect such areas as the fertilizer industry, vital to food production.

~ 18 What's

""-rT7'

by Lester R. Brown ••••••}.L£-

An Intervie:With

Holding Up Nuclear Power?

Peter M. Flanigan'

~

12 The End of Scarcity by Daniel Be//:r;II: As prices of food, petroleum and other essentials keep rising, this issue of SPAN presents a Special Section on the world resources shortage, in which we examine the resources shortage from several angles. On page 5, Lester Brown presents an overview of the whole problem-and its f9rmidable complexity. On page 10, Peter M. Flanigan, Special Assistant to the U.S. President, presents the official American Government viewpoint on many of the issues Brown raises. In "The End of Scarcity" (page 12), a distinguished American intel~ lectual, Daniel Bell, strikes a note of cautious optimism.

Bell looks at the question of scarcities from a fresh-and refreshing-point of view. Certain things will be scarce in the future, he says, but they will not be the things we think they'll be. The Special Section returns to the energy crisiswhich may be at the root of all the other world shortagesin the articles on pages 18 and 20, which report on the prog~ ress being made in two fields that may make petroleum obsolete as a source of power: nuclear fission and thermonuclear fusion. Finally, in our late-closing pages (2-4), we offer a sampling of press comments on how the energy crisis affects developing nations and excerpts from Dr. Kissinger's address to the recent Washington energy conference.

One thing you may have noticed about the cover of this issue is the date, which says "March-April." We are not really combining two issues but simply "renaming" them so that our May issue reaches our readers in late April and so on ad infinitum! This does not mean, however, that there will be one less issue of SPAN. Subscribers will still receive 12 copies for their annual subscription.

Which brings us to another new feature on the cover of this issue: the price. Costs of paper and other materials needed for printing SPAN have been rising-like everything else. For this reason we are raising the price of SPAN to two rupees per copy-and raising the yearly subscription rate to Rs. 18 (for 12 issues). At the same time as we do this, however, we are reopening the SPAN subscription list. If any of your friends have expressed an interest in receiving SPAN, they may now receive an annual subscription (12 issues) at the special reduced price of Rs. 18. They should send their checks made out in favor of SPAN magazine and should be "ale payee." Checks should be forwarded to A. K. Mitra, the Circulation Manager, SPAN, 24 Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi-llOOOI. -A.E.H.

::r)::rI:

A. Kissinger

7)IIC.

An Interview With Dr. Dixy Lee RUt

20 Is Fusion the Ultimate SolutiOn?:;:rrI:~l

22 Jasper

Johns's Elusive Bull's-Eye

.J1I.

by Robert Hughes

28 Missing the Boat.in Population Policy?

32 The Real Villain in Heart

.

Disease by

by Chanchal Sarkar

JI") r'

.III:.

C.P. Gilmore

40 Americans Are Talking About :rtt:.1 42 A Gol'emment of Laws 'and Not of Men' by Richard

Schroeder

45 'We Have a Dynamic Role·to Play'

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by S.R. Madhu

48

PL-480 Rupee Agreement ~igned 3) JI",J:JZ:.

49

Drab Oty Walls Suddenly Go Wild

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Front cover: SPAN artist Gopi Gajwani sees the resources shortage ,as a vast global desert with only one blossom left. Attacked by a swarm of bees-the nations of the world-the flower slowly yields its nectar. How long can it continue to do so? A Special Section on "The World Resources Shortage," which appears on pages 5 to 21, examines the question from several viewpoints.

Back cover: In the desert surrounding Richland, Washington, the Westinghouse Corporation is constructing the Fast Flux Test Facility to study components and materials tor use in the first large-scale nuclear breeder reactor plant to be built in the U.S. For a story 011 the prosp.ectsof atomic power, turn to page 18.

Photographs: Inside front cover, 5, 16 top-Avinash Pasricha. 16-WiUiam Albert Allard; Fred Maroon; General Motors Corporalion. 21-courtesy General Electric Company. 22-Collection of the Museum of Modern Art, NYC, gift of Mr. and Mrs. Robert C. Scull. 23 top·-Collection of Mr. and Mrs. Robert C. Scull; bottom~courtesy Leo Castelli Gallery. 24·2S~Collection of Edwin Jaoss. Jr., Los Angeles.26-27-eourtesy LudwigCollection, Germany. Photo courtesy Leo Castelli Gall"ry. 27 bottom-Collection of the artist. Photo courtesy L"o Cast"lIi Gallery. 42-G"org" Sugasawara.Back eover-courtesy WestinghouseElectric Corporation.

The following: is a statement

of ownership' and other partku~rs

~bout SPAN

~:~~~e ua:d~q~i~i: 8~1efh~~~~t~:~~J :rf~~~~:S~~~:~::~~;'R~I~~,81~5 1.

Place of Publication

2.

3.

Periodicity of its Publication Printer's Name Nationality Address

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United Slate$ Information Sert'ke 24 Kaslurba

Gandhi

MarK.

Nell'

Delhi-Ilml

4.

Publisher·sName Nationality Address

S.

6.

'Editor's "Name Nationality Address

...

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'1r~n,:lf.Melita Indian Yakil &: SQns Pvt. Ltd. Va/dls Hj)u~. SprOll Road. /8 Ballard £State. Bombay-40000J Albert E. Hemsing American

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ENERGY CRISIS HURTS POOR COUNTRIES MOST The unpredictable spin-off of rising oil prices has dismayed planning officials in many developing countries as they recalculate projected economic growth rates downward. Though third-world nations are not intended targets of the Arab oil embargo and ensuing price escalations, the scatter effects of this broadly aimed oil weapon include them amongst the hardest-hit victims. The prospects are chilling.

A recent editorial in the Los Angeles Times cited the unfortunate link between the shortage of oil and a possible shortage of food. The crisis in food supplies, the Times editorial said, will begin to develop around mid-August in India, possibly Africa, much of the Mideast and parts of Latin America. This is principally because oil is a major component of fertilizer.

Quoting Lester Brown of the Overseas Development Council [see also Brown's article on page 5], the Times editorial said Japan has cut fertilizer production 25 per cent and probably will reduce exports onethird, meaning that India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will suffer. But that's only part of it, the Times said. "Food also depends on irrigation. In India two million irrigation wells are often pumped by small motors, chugging along, burning oil. The price of oil rises, irrigation costs more, food costs more, people who can't pay die."

Again using Lester Brown's comments, the Times said: " ... With less fertilizer and two per cent regular increase in population, this is the first year in which one can say positively: There will be a reduction of food production in Asia, regardless of the weather." Brown added: "Never before in my memory was it possible to say that." . Another story citing the seriousness of the situation was filed to the New York Times by Bernard Weinraub from New Delhi. The doubling of crude oil prices, he said, may cause India to cut back on oil imports by "at least three million tons" this year. The New York Times dispatch added: "The move will deeply affect production of fertilizers and foods, transportation, generating of power, shipping and industrial growth." Weinraub's article quoted an Indian official as saying: "Unless the oil producers or the U.N. does something,

India and the third world are doomed to poverty. You will find standards of living, already meager, and built up in the last 20 years at great sacrifice, completely nullified in less than a year."

Columnist Milton Viorst wrote in the Washington Star-News that the "high price of petroleum has boomed up the cost of chemical fertilizer, and shifted the economics of food production in poor countries in a calamitous way." The use of chemical fertilizers, Viorst continued, "showed farmers how to get much higher yields on their acreage-to the point where the underdeveloped countries, despite their soaring population, became practically self-sufficient in food." Now, the rising cost of fertilizer "threatens to turn promise into disaster," he concluded.

Writing on what he called "Fertilizerthe Forgotten Shortage," Guy' Halverson said in the Christian Science Monitor that the United States may be able to continue fertilizer production at last year's level, but other producers such as Japan and parts of Western Europe "are reported to be trimming their fertilizer exports." The Monitor article said that "last year between 18 and 26 per cent of the total U.S. production went abroad," but "at present it is believed that no important new export contracts are being signed, though some supplies are moving abroad under contracts negotiated last October." Halverson predicted a shortage of fertilizer for American farmers, too, since agricultural specialists had predicted at least 10 per cent more crop land would be put into production this planting season. Thus, there would be more land to fertilize and less fertilizer for the job.

The possible consequence of all this is placed in chilling perspective by another editorial from the Los Angeles Times. It said "if the present situation continues, experts say tens of million of human beings will starve."

In order to do something about the present situation, delegates from 13 oil-consuming nations met in Washington for an , "energy conference" in early February [see page 4]. Commenting on th~s meeting was T.V. Parasuram, Washington correspondent of the Indian Express, who wrote: '''The conference on the world energy situation convened by President Nixon is, in terms of its impact on the world economy, perhaps the most important interna-

tional meeting to be held since the Second World War ....

"When it comes to oil and its prices the old lines between developed and developing countries, between black nations and white nations, between the browns and the yellows, between the rich and the poor, all evaporate. The division is between the producing countries seeking unreasonable profits and consuming countries who have to survive."

Parasuram went on to discuss the American attitude toward the world oil crisis: "Among the nations of the world only the United States could have afforded the luxury of splendid isolation. Fortunately, it has taken the lead for a co-operative effort. Developing countries like India may not have much economic strength at present but they can give the United States strong moral support. Self-interest and national survival justify the shedding of a few slogans and shibboleths about the Third World, Afro-Asian solidarity and nonalignment. " In another article in the Indian Express, Parasuram stated his case even more bluntly and related the problem more specifically to India. Because of the rise in oil prices, he said, "the carefully built-up system of international institutions to attract capital and transfer technology to developing countries was in danger of collapsing ....

India had been the primary beneficiary of international institutions and hence any collapse of the institutions would hurt India most as it would be the primary victim. The world could no longer be seen in just simple terms of the rich being bad and the poor being good. The shock on oil had come from underdeveloped countries."

AMBASSADOR KAUL URGES INDO-U.S. CO-OPERATION IN COAL-BASED FERTILIZERS One solution to India's fertilizer production problem was suggested by Indian Ambassador T.N. Kaul in a recent speech reported in the February 1, 1974, issue ofthe India News, official newspaper of the Indian Mission in Washington. Excerpts from the India News story follow: "Ambassador T.N. Kaul said in New York on January 24 that he saw wide possibilities of industrial and technological collaboration between India and the

United States, and mentioned production of the coal-based fertilizers in particular, reports the Press Trust of India.

"He was addressing the Asia Society on 'India 1974.' The society held a reception to mark India's Republic Day celebrations....

"After tracing the advance made by India in its 26 years of independence in democratic peace and an orderly manner, Mr. Kaul said that India had taken a leading part in focusing attention on problems of the developing countries and dangers to the harmony and security of the world if the existing gulf between the developing and the developed countries was allowed to widen. "'We believe that problems such as shortage of food, fertilizer, industrial raw materials, transfer of technology and the current shortage of energy are problems that must be tackled on a global scale and not on a narrow national scale,' he said.

'There must be discriminating but not discriminatory attitudes toward less developed countries,' ·he said.

"Mr. Kaul said that India had vast resources and industrial raw materials while the United States had modern technology.

There was no reason why the two could not be 'married.'

"One of the immediate steps to be taken

by India was to switch production of fertilizer based on naphtha to a coal base.

This was a field in which there could be technological co-operation between the two countries."

out. What seems to be the problem?"

One of the men spoke up. "Arthur's the problem."

"Could you be more specific?" Sims asked.

"As soon as he gets in the car he starts singing 'Oh what a beautiful morning.' Even when it's raining. I can't stand a cheerful person at that hour."

Arthur spoke up. "Well, I like to sing in the morning. It sets me up for the day.

Harold gets in the car and just reads his newspaper and doesn't even say hello to anybody. What kind of a car pool can yo~ have if someone doesn't even know you're there?"

"Oh, yeah/' Harold replied. "The reason I put my nose in my newspaper is I can't stand the way Sidney drives. He zooms in and out of traffic, cursing every driver on the road. My to-year-old son could do a better job of getting us to work."

Sidney went red. "At Jeast I don't smoke . those smelly cigars in the morning. And while we're saying what's on our minds, I've never seen you use the car ashtray once."

Harold responded, "I don't use your ashtrays because they're always full of cigarette butts. It's not fun to see a filthy ashtray at breakfast time."

Mr. Sims turned to the fourth man, who hadn't said anything. "Alistair, you're very quiet. Is there anything you'd like to get off your chest?"

"Yes, there is," Alistair said. "Everyone in the car pool forgot my birthday."

Arthur moaned, "Oh, for God's sake."

"Well, it may not be important to you, but my birthday means a Jot to me. I didn't ex-.

CAR-POOLING IS pect a cake or anything like that. But what NOT LIKE MARRIAGE would it have cost you all to say, 'Happy birthday, Alistair?' " On the lighter side of the energy crisis, "It slipped our minds," Harold replied.

American humor columnist Art Buchwald "If it will do anything for you, happy commented on a phenomenon that has be- birthday." come increasingly common in the U.S. and "It's too late," Alistair sulked. "I reIndia: car-pooling. The following column membered your birthday, Harold." titled "Car-Pool Dangers" is copyrighted@ "So we forgot," Sidney said. "We had 1974 by the Los Angeles Times and is re- other things to think about." printed with permission.

Alistair wouldn't budge. "Car-poolers are Washington-The problem with car-pool- supposed to remember each others' birthing is when you have four people sharing a . days." vehicle, tensions arise that can cause great Mr. Sims said, "I perceive tremendous emotionaldamage to all those concerned. To tension in this pool. Now the question is what deal with the situation, many cities are set- do we do about it?" ting up car-pool clinics where car-poolers "I want out," Arthur said. "If I can't sing can get counseling and help.

'Oh what a beautiful morning,' I would just I attended one in Fairfax, Virginia, the as soon take the bus." other evening. The car-pool counselor, a "I'm for going our separate ways," Mr. Sims, was seated in a comfortable chair Harold said. smoking a pipe. Four men in business suits "Now wait a minute," Mr. Sims said. sat nervously in a semicircle around him. "Car-pooling is a very serious institution.

They refused to look at each other.

When you take a vow to share an autoMr. Sims said, "The important thing in mobile with another person you promise to this session, gentlemen, is to let it all hang love, honor and cherish him in sickness and

in heaJth~All of you have to make more of an effort to understand each other and live with .each otber two hours a day..

"Car-pooling isn't like marriage, something that yeu can treat lightly. Remember, what the energy crisis has joined together let no man cast asunder. And keep this in mind.

If you break up your car pool and join another one you'll probably wind up with the same kind of people you left behind."

CHINA BUYS YANKEE SKILLS America's increasing economic ties with the Soviet Union [see "Trading With the Communists," December '73 SPAN, and "U.S.-Soviet Commercial Relations in a New Era," July '73 SPAN] have been so much in the headlines that they have tended to obscure growing American economic ties with the People's Republic of China. A recent report on these ties was carried in the February 4, 1974, issue of U.S. News & World Report. The report, titled "China Buying Yankee Skills," is reprinted here: "Peking is opening still more trade doors and U.S. suppliers are stepping in to help mainland China upgrade its operations in fields from oil drilling to auto-parts production.

"The Rucker Company has obtained a S2-million order to provide mainland China with gear designed to control pressure in wells during drilling. Now that the door to commerce is open, an officer of this Oakland [California] firm sees a "potentially large" market for equipment in the expanding Chinese oil and gas industry.

"In a petroleum-related industry, a proc. ess owned by Standard Oil (Indiana) for making polypropylene will be supplied for a new plant in China through an Italian licensee. The material is used in packaging, in the manufacture of plastics and as a fiber in woven fabrics.

"In the automotive field, Gleason Works has closed a deal to provide Red China with machinery valued at $8.2 million for producing car gears and axles. The Rochester, New York, firm is to train Chinese to use the equipment.

"Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department has approved a sale to China by Litton Industries of computerized navigation systems for use aboard four recently acquired Boeing jetliners. And preliminary talks have been held by United Aircraft with Chinese officials about selling Sikorsky S61N helicopters to the Peking Government."

0 Reprinted from U.S. News & World Report. published at Washington •. D.C. Copyright Q 1974 U.S. News· & World Report. Incorporated.

A VISION EQUALTOTHE CHALLENGE On February 11, 1974, the 13 major oil-consuming nations met in Washington, D.C.,jor a conference on the world's energy crisis. The meeting was opened by U.S. Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger who warned the delegates that "isolated solutions" to the energy problem "are impossible." Failure to move urgently toward cooperative solutions "would threaten the world with a vicious cycle of competition, autarky, rivalry and depression such as led to the collapse of the world order in the 'thirties." Excerpts from Dr. Kissinger's address follow: My great predecessor, Dean Acheson, once observed that "sometimes there is nothing man can do to avert disaster but more often our failure lies in meeting big bold demanding problems with half-measures, timorous and cramped." The nations gathered in this room are confronted with an unprecedented challenge to our prosperity, and to the entire structure of international cooperation so laboriously constructed over the last generation. The impact of the energy crisis reaches around the world, raising fundamental questions about the future of the developing countries [and] the prospects for economic growth of all nations ....

Let me summarize the U.S. views .. " First, the energy situation poses severe economic and political problems for all nations. Isolated solutions are impossible ....

Second, this challenge can be met successfully only through concerted international action. Its impact is controllable if we work together; it is unmanageable if we do not.

Third, the developing countries must quickly be drawn into consultation and collaboration. Their futures are the most profoundly affected of all. Unable to meet present prices for oil and fertilizer, they face the threat of starvation and the tragedy of abandoned hopes for further economic development. In the name both of humanity and common sense we cannot permit this.

Fourth, co-operation not confrontation must mark our relationships with the producers. We each have legitimate interests. We each face looming dangers. We need each other. If we move rapidly and co-operatively toward collective action, all will benefit.

Fifth, the U.s. recognizes its own national responsibility to contribute significantly to a collective solution. While we are less immediately affected than others, we see it as a matter of enlightened self-interest-and moral responsibility-to collaborate in the survival and restoration of the world economic system ....

The most immediate and critical problem concerns price., Current price levels are simply not sustainable. At these levels, the industrial countries alone will incur a current account deficit of $36 billion to $40 billion in 1974 ....

The threat to the world's poorer nation.s is even more profound.

At present prices the less developed nations will face a current account deficit 0[$25 billion to $30 billion in 1974, of which more than $10 billion is caused by the increase in oil prices. This deficit is three times the total aid flow of the entire world in recent years.

Neither the 'developing nations nor traditional aid donors can finance such a sum. Even the attempt would destroy two decades of hard-won progress, leaving in its wake a legacy of political

tension, social turmoil and human despair.

Moreover, as a direct result of the oil price hikes the poorer nations' supply of crucial fertilizer has been severely reduced in recent months. Fertilizer prices have at least doubled, raising the specter offamine. We cC\nnot permit this to happen ....

We suggest that this conference consider [these] areas for cooperative exploration ....

Conservation. The development of a new energy ethic designed to promote the conservation and most efficient use of existing energy supplies is crucial ....

Alternative Energy Sources. The demands of this decade cannot be met unless we expand available supplies through vigorous development of alternative energy sources ....

Research and Development •... It is to our mutual benefit to coordinate and combine our efforts. Thus, the U.S. is prepared to make a major contribution of its most advanced energy research and development to a broad program of international co-operation in energy ....

Emergency Sharing. The allocation of available supplies in time of emergencies and prolonged shortages is essential. ... The U.S. declares its willingness to share available energy in times of emergency or prolonged shortages. We would be prepared to allocate an agreed portion of our total petroleum supply provided other consuming countries with indigenous production do likewise ....

The Less Developed Countries •... Massive increases in oil import costs are occurring at a time when the export prospects of many less developed countries have sharply diminished as a result of the slowdown in world economic activity. Even at lower oil prices, the balance-of-payments problems of the less developed countries would require sustained attention. Our approach to this human and economic challenge should be based on several principles: • The developing consumer countries should be invited to join the next stage of our deliberations.

• Develclped countries should avoid cutting their concessional aid programs in response to balance-of-payments problems. In this regard, the United States will urge the Congress to restore our contribution to the International Development Association (IDA).

• The wealth of the producer nations opens up a potential new source of large-scale capital assistance for development. The producer nations should have a special understanding for the problems facing the poorer nations. We should encourage and facilitate their participation in international and regional institutions.

• Urgent measures must be taken to assure sufficient fertilizer supplies for the coming year. The immediate problem is to provide oil at a price that will allow existing fertilizer production capacity to be fully utilized. The longerterm problem is to create sufficient capacity to meet the world's rapidly growing needs. The United States would be prepared to contribute its technological skills to such a joint enterprise ..•.

Let us resolve: To meet the special challenges C\nd opportunities facing the major consuming nations with a program of cooperation; to bring the developing nations into immediate consultation and collaboration with us; to prepare for a positive and productive dialogue with the producing nations .... Our choice is clear, our responsibility compelling. We must demonstrate to future generatio)ls that our vision was equal to our challenge. 0

• • ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF EVERYTHING?

Reviewing the gamut of global shortages in the article overleaf, the author says that 'the supply position of some raw materials will improve, but over-all the prospect is for continuing scarcity.'

A

s we approach the final quarter of this century, global scarcity of many important resources is emerging. The energy crisis has been occupying the headlines, but scarcity of other resources is now apparent too.

Global consumption of every important mineral required by a modern industrial economy is increasing dramatically.

Having already depleted their own reserves of critical raw materials, industrial countries are turning increasingly to nonindustrial countries for supplies. As global economic growth continues, we can only anticipate growing international competition and rising prices for supplies of many key resources.

Accelerating world price rises and frequent shortages of arising from forest products-lumber, fuel and newsprint-are the fact that the earth is gradually being deforested.

Shortages of natural fibers, principally cotton and wool, are helping to drive up clothing prices. In the past, scarcity of natural fibers has been offset easily by increased production of man-made fibers. However, the rising cost of petroleum-a basic raw material for the synthesis of fibers-has severely reduced that possibility.

Skyrocketing food prices in 1973 resulted in part from a disturbing long-term trend: the global demand for foodstuffs generated both by population growth and affluence is gradually outrunning the productive capacity of the world's farmers and fishermen.

Food scarcity is being accentuated by energy scarcity.

Energy is an important cost in the manufacture of chemical fertilizers, and the primary raw material for the production of crucial nitrogen fertilizer is natural gas. High-yield agriculture in Western Europe, Japan and the Midwestern United States depends upon the intensive use of energy.

In many nations, population growth and economic growth are rapidly increasing the demand for land suitable for living space and commercial purposes. The result has been soaring land prices. Recreational, industrial and residential uses are reducing the land available for food production-a dangerous trend in a food-short world which has little unused arable land.

One essential resource which is beginning to constrain the expansion of both agricultural and industrial activity in substantial areas of the world is the availability of fresh water.

Within agriculture, it is now the principal constraint on the spread of the new high-yielding dwarf wheats in countries ranging from Mexico to Afghanistan. It is hamstringing Soviet efforts to meet expanding consumer demand for livestock products.

In many nations, we are seeing growing pressures on another resource on which economic activity depends: waste absorptive capacity. Increases in the incidence of environmentally induced illnesses, the change in oxygen content of lakes and a lengthening list of species threatened with extinction are among the symptoms.

The scarcity characterizing the world market for many important commodities in the early 1970s must not be viewed as a historical accident or a temporary situation which will

shortly vanish. It is the product of continuing exponential economic growth within the physical constraints of a finite, rather small planet. And if we are to deal with this problem, we must create new mechanisms of global co-operation, such as a world food reserve and international management of ocean fisheries.

We are, in fact, seeing a domino effect of resource scarcity in operation. A shortage of fresh water with which to restore strip-mined areas holds down the level of coal extraction, adding pressures not only on available coal supplies but on all other energy resources as well. A fall-off in the growth of the world fish catch raises global demand for soybeans in order to produce substitute protein products such as poultry. A scarcity of cotton pulls cropland needed for soybean production into cotton production, intensifying the protein shortage. The list of such extended chains or networks of resource interdependence is long.

Economists traditionally have regarded substitution as the panacea for scarcity of a particular resource. In today's world, however, the opportunities for substitution frequently insure only that scarcity is contagious.

These are not merely national scarcities affecting a particular country or group of countries, they are global scarcities.

Countries throughout the world are dependent on common supplies of petroleum, soybeans, marine protein, copper and natural fibers. As the global economy has become more integrated, as a result of growing monetary interdependence and rapidly expanding international trade, it has become exceedingly difficult for individual countries to isolate themselves from scarcities elsewhere.

The United States, historically blessed with relative selfsufficiency of resources, is experiencing a growing dependence on imported minerals, closely paralleling that for energy. Of the 13 basic raw materials required by a modern economy, the United States in 1970 was dependent on imports for more than half of its supplies of six. By 1985, it is projected to be primarily dependent on imports for supplies of nine of the 13 basic raw materials, including three major ones: bauxite, iron ore and tin.

In no areas has American interdependence with the world been demonstrated more dramatically than with food. If there is any area in which the U.S. economy was believed to be invulnerable, it was in its capacity to provide an adequate supply of low-cost food for American consumers. But at present, American consumers find that they must share food scarcity with consumers in other countries, most importantly those in the Soviet Union. The United States could have avoided the politically painful food price rises of early 1973 by restricting farm exports, but unfortunately an adequate U.S. energy supply is dependent on expanded farm exports to pay the rapidly rising import bill.

The international consequences of the growing common dependence on geographically concentrated, and often increasingly scarce, global resources deserve far more attention

'Scarcity may make continuing global population growth a much more obvious threat to the future wellbeing of people everywhere.'

than they have thus far received.

Resource scarcities are altering the economic and political relationships among countries, changing the relative position and influence of countries in the international hierarchy. A given country may find its position abruptly strengthened in one sector of economic activity and weakened in another.

World food scarcity has greatly improved the terms on which the United States makes foodstuffs available to the rest of the world. But its negotiating position in the world energy economy has deteriorated sharply. The converse is true for the Soviet Union, which is highly vulnerable in food but in a much better position with energy, which it produces in surplus.

Efforts by individual countries to expand their share of global output, employment and wealth are taking new forms.

Linkages between global scarcities and internal policies affecting economic growth, inflation and employment are becoming both more numerous and more direct. Stresses on the international political fabric are increasing. Co-operation among countries is needed in spheres of activity where none was needed before.

Since World War II, the overriding objective of national trade policies has been that of expanded access to markets abroad for exports. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created specifically with this in mind. Five successive rounds of GATT negotiations since World War II have steadily reduced tariff barriers, as evidenced by the healthy growth in world trade throughout the postwar period.

Scarcity is now bringing the other side of the international trade coin, the question of access to supplies, to the fore.

Highlighting this question is the disturbing tendency for countries to limit exports of raw materials. Countries are limiting exports to cope better with internal inflationary pressures, to extend the foreign exchange-earning lifetime of a nonrenewable

resource, to increase the share of indigenous processing, to improve export terms and to take advantage of anticipated future price rises.

Countries with nonrenewable resources such as petroleum and minerals are beginning to ask themselves at what rate they want to exploit their resources. Historically, when potential supplies almost always exceeded prospective demand and supplier countries were eager to maximize exports, this issue was seldom raised. But today it is a much more complex issue.

Should the growth in world demand determine the rate at which a given resource is exploited or should it be determined by some longer-term internal development strategy, which might argue for a much slower rate of exploitation and lower level of exports?

What should determine the rate at which Venezuela's remaining oil reserves are exploited-its own longer-term foreign exchange needs or the short-term consumption needs of the United States? The former may argue for a much lower level of petroleum production and export than the latter.

Exports of scarce commodities are being banned or restricted by a number of countries in order to cope with internal inflationary pressures. Brazil limited the export of beef in 1973 to levels 30 per cent below the corresponding month in 1972.

Thailand, a leading world supplier of rice, has banned exports in order to prevent inordinate price rises in its national food staple. The United States severely limited the export of soybeans last summer (the controls subsequently were lifted) and it is virtually the sole supplier of this critical protein resource to the rest of the world.

As lumber prices soar within the United States, a leading exporter of forest products, it is attempting to negotiate a voluntary quota for Japan on its imports of U.S. forest products. This represents a dramatic turnabout in U.S.-Japan trade relationships, where the focus over the last decade has been on the negotiation of voluntary quotas with the Japanese to limit their exports of textiles and steel to the United States.

Under what conditions should a country be permitted to use trade policy, in effect, to export inflation?

Should a country be permitted to deny others access to an indigenous raw material of which it is the principal global supplier? We must begin to at least ask the question of how to cope with export throughout the world.

Many developing countries see the improved market outlook for raw materials as an opportunity to substitute exports of semi-processed or processed raw materials for those of raw materials per se. They wish to abandon the "hewers of wood, drawers of water" role they have traditionally occupied in the world economy. Perhaps the best single example to date of the exercise of newly acquired bargaining power is an agreement between Japan and Turkey, wherein Japan has agreed to build a 50,000-ton-a-year ferrochrome ore alloy plant in Turkey in exchange for agreement to supply a million tons of chrome ore over the next 11 years.

If the Shah of Iran gets his way, more and more of the

oil leaving Iran will be refined rather than crude oil. Argentina, Brazil and India are taking advantage of the global scarcity of cattle hides by restricting or banning exports, thus furthering development of their domestic leather goods industry.

Indonesia is combining its favorable resource situation with mounting Japanese fears of pollution at home to persuade Japanese firms investing in mineral extraction to ship processed ore rather than crude ore to Japan.

Poor countries eager to acquire smokestacks, and the jobs which they bring, are likely to view their unused or underused waste absorptive capacities as a resource to be exploited in international economic competition, much like mineral reserves or fertileofarmland.

The response of investors to pollution differentials among countries in some ways parallels that of wage differentials. In effect, firms are beginning to locate pollution-intensive phases of their operations in countries with low pollution levels, much as they have located labor-intensive aspects of their operations in low-wage countries, most prominently Mexico, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea over the last decade.

As the industrial countries turn increasingly to nonindustrial countries for raw materials, their negotiating position is likely to weaken over time, altering the terms on which these raw materials are made available.

In the wake of the extraordinarily successful, highly visible collective bargaining by petroleum exporters over the last few years, the possibility of collective bargaining by suppliers of other raw materials is being viewed with more than ordinary interest. For them it is a tantalizing model. The prospects for successful collective negotiation by raw material exporters are influenced by a number of factors, including the number of suppliers, the ability and willingness to restrict supply, the availability of possible substitutes, alternative sources of foreign exchange earnings for the supplier and the possibility for collective bargaining by importing-countries.

Efforts to bargain collectively fail far more often than they succeed, but often a convergence of special circumstances can give the exporting countries the leverage to alter the terms on which a given raw material is made available. A prolonged strike in the mining or transport sector and interference with global transport arteries, such as blockage of the Suez Canal or the severing of a strategic rail or pipeline linking a major supplier with world markets, are but two ofthe events which can combine to strengthen inadvertently the hands of exporting countries.

One of the necessary, though far from sufficient, requisites for effective collective bargaining is that a relatively small number of countries control most of the exportable supplies.

Four poor countries-Chile, Peru, Zambia and Zaire-supply most of the world's exportable surplus of copper. Three others -Malaysia, Bolivia and Thailand-account for 70 per cent of all tin entering international trade channels. Australia, Mexico and Peru account for 60 per cent of the exportable supply of lead. Cuba and New Caledonia have well over half of the world's known reserves of nickel. Known reserves of

cobalt are concentrated in Zaire, Cuba, New Caledonia and parts of Asia.

Exportable protein feedstuffs are concentrated in even fewer countries. One country, Peru, supplies most of the fish meal entering the world market.

Exportable supplies of cereals are controlled by a few countries. North American dominance of cereal exports, both food grains and feed grains, is even greater than Middle Eastern dominance in energy. Not only is the United States the leading supplier of wheat and feed grains, but it is now the leading exporter of rice as well. The world is more dependent on North American food supplies than ever.

Suppliers of some raw materials are certain to attempt to emulate the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The four copper exporting countries are already doing so. There is concern within the aluminum industry that the politics of petroleum are becoming the politics of bauxite.

Coffee' exporters are beginning to bargain collectively as a group whereas in the past they were dependent on the willingness of the importing countries to support prices of coffee.

While some poorer nations may be benefiting handsomely from resource shortages, others may suffer greatly. Global resource scarcity could threaten future economic progress in those countries which are densely populated and not blessed with any of the critical raw materials the rest of the world needs.

For example, a 40 per cent rise in the world market price of petroleum and cereals could bring economic development to a near-standstill in those poor countries dependent on imports of both. The foreign assistance needs of resource-rich Indonesia, Algeria or Brazil no longer can be considered in the same light as those of Bangladesh, India or Colombia.

Global resource scarcities impinge heavily on economic and political relationships among countries, in part because they affect so directly the living conditions within a given

How to cope with global scarcity must be recognized as a global problem and calls for new modes of international co-operation.

country. They affect the very lifestyles of people, their dietary habits, their mode of transportation. The level of protein intake in the Soviet Union and Japan are directly affected by U.S. farm export policy. The size of automobiles in the United States is inevitably affected by production decisions of Middle Eastern oil countries. It is this dimension of global resource scarcity that makes the terms of access to needed resources such a politically sensitive issue.

As global resource scarcity makes itself felt within the United States, it is generating a need to modify lifestyles. As long as the resources consumed within the United States are largely indigenous, how much was consumed was largely an internal matter, but as these resources come more and more from abroad, others will have some say over the rate and terms on which they are consumed.

Many of the technologies embodied in the U.S. economy evolved in a situation of resource abundance, of seemingly unlimited supplies of energy, land and water. The time has now come to re-examine these technologies in light of the growing resource scarcity. For example, the time may have come to redesign the transportation system, imposing limits on the size of automobiles and investing more in urban mass transit and less in interstate highways and urban throughways.

A similar situation exists with food. Claims on world food resources by the average American are nearly five times as great as those of the average Indian, Nigerian or Colombian.

Whether Americans can continue to consume ever more animal protein in a protein-scarce world, as existing economic projections indicate they intend to, is now problematic. It may become necessary, for both economic and ecological reasons, to begin to substitute high-quality vegetable protein for animal protein, much as vegetable oils have been substituted for animal fats over the last generation.

Coping with scarcity of some resources calls for specific new modes of international co-operation. Growing food scarcity is one such need. With world grain reserves now far below the desirable working level, and idled cropland in the United States rapidly disappearing, a major stabilizing influenceon world food prices has been lost. Under these circumstances, an internationally managed world food reserve becomes highly desirable as a counter to the threat of famine and as a source of assurance and security to consumers everywhere, including the United States.

In some instances, such as in world fisheries, the failure to co-operate could leave all involved worse off. Unless an institutional framework can be created within which to cooperatively manage oceanic fisheries, we must face the prospect of depleted stocks, declining catch and soaring seafood prices.

It is in this context that consumers have a direct stake in the U.N.-sponsored Law of the Sea Conference, scheduled to take place in Venezuela this June.

Advancing technology has brought us to the point where national efforts to expand the supply of fresh water through river diversion or alteration of rainfall patterns may have in-

ternational if not global consequences. Under these circumstances, we need to think seriously of creating a supranational institution to regulate national interventions in the hydrological cycle. When should a country be permitted to increase its rainfall at the expense of another, if at all? Should individual countries be permitted to divert river flows or deforest on a scale which will affect the global climatic system?

Scarcity, manifested in rising prices and intensified competition among countries for access to and control of resources, may make continuing global population growth a much more obvious threat to the future w(fll-being and security of people everywhere than it is today.

One of the inevitable consequences of scarcity and, more importantly, the realization that it may not be temporary, is a growing doubt as to whether the currently projected world population of 6.5 billion by the end of the century will be considered tolerable. This in turn may impart a new urgency for putting on the demographic brakes, highlighting the importance of the U.N.-sponsored World Population Conference, now scheduled for Bucharest in August 1974, and the world population plan of action it is intended to produce.

The supply position of some raw materials undoubtedly will improve from time to time in the years ahead, but over-all the prospect is for continuing scarcity. Over the longer term, technological breakthroughs may dramatically improve the supply situation. The energy crisis may one day disappear, but a technological breakthrough which might permit this, such as the harnessing of fusion power, is not likely to have an impact before 1990 at best. Advances in the technology of fish farming may some day permit growth in the supply of cultivated fish to offset the inevitable decline in growth in the oceanic catch. But progress on this scale almost certainly will be reserved for some point beyond the current decade, if it comes at all. And so it is with all too many resources plagued by global scarcity.

How to cope with global scarcity must be recognized as a global problem. The temptation at the governmental level will always be to act in the national interest, narrowly defined, and against a short-term scale. Political leaders often will be tempted to blame other countries for inflation, economic stagnation, rising unemployment or other ills deriving from scarcity. All too often, they will be tempted to use trade and monetary policy to export inflation and unemployment.

We delude ourselves if we think the years ahead will be an easy period in international relations. At best, they wilI be troubled ones. The complex resource issues which must be resolved, one way or another, will place great stress on the international political fabric. At issue is whether we can create a workable world order for an increasingly interdependent w~d.

D About the Author: Lester R. Brown, a senior fellow of the Overseas Development Council, is a former u.s. Agriculture Department official and the author ~rSeeds of Change and World Without Borders.

A MORE OPEN AND EQUITABLE WORLD U.S. Presidential Assistant Peter M. Flanigan (left) argues in the following interview that restrictive trade practices accentuate the problem of scarcity.

America, for example, can produce enough food for the world 'if our access to markets' is not limited.

QUESTION: We have often heard that the Second Nixon Administration attaches special significance to international economic issues, looking toward a more open and a more equitable world. What does this mean?

FLANIGAN: We believe a more open and a more equitable economic world will be one in which workers, consumers, and investors of all countries will benefit. There will be higher standards ofliving, because there will be more trade and-equally important-fairer trade, in which distortions existing today against efficient exporters will be significantly diminished.

We believe these economic issues should be seen as part of our broader relationships with other countries. We think a fruitful, open, and equitable trading and investment world with a sensitive monetary system-a monetary system that will keep all countries in equilibrium over time-will not only contribute to rising standards of living but also remove sources of friction that can develop into political confrontations.

Our concept of an international economic system covers the entire system. We talk about trade, we talk about money, and we talk about investment when we should be more concerned with the restructuring of the entire international economic world. We need to change the rules and the conditions under which nations-and the peoples of those nations-do business with one another.

The rules that guided commercial transactions among nations since the end of World War II were largely designed for a bygone era. Those conditions no longer exist. For example, the United States is no longer the dominant factor in the international economic world.

QUESTION: Do you believe progress in international monetary reform must precede progress in the trade negotiations? What is the rationale for linking the two sets of negotiations?

FLANIGAN: If you look at the history of these discussions, you will seethat it was the United States that first pointed out the real, fundamental connection between money and trade. The monetary system is designed solely to serve the trade and investment system. Obviously

you can't change one without affecting the other. This relationship has to be recognized, and there has to be progress in both. We don't think the progress has to be in lockstep, but we would expect the negotiators in one field will consider progress in the other. But I think it would be unlikely that the two sets of negotiations would be completed at the same time.

QUESTION: Could you give us your views regarding the issue of relatively free flow of investment capital across borders, versus capital controls? Do you believe the U.S. balance-ol-payments deficit should be corrected by capital controls?

FLANIGAN: I think it's a fallacy to suggest you could cure our balance-of-payments problems by capital controls. In 1972 the United States was an importer of capital. That is, more money was invested in the United States from abroad than Americans invested in other countries. There is no way our $9,000 million balance-of-payments deficit could have been cured with capital controls in 1972.

Personally, I think in the normal course of events we should be capital exporters. We have a lot of capital, and developing countriesand other countries-need investment capital.

In general, I think capital controls work a very great disservice on the citizens of both the importing country and the exporting country.

The well-being of the people of the world will be best served by allowing capital to go where it can be most efficiently employed.

I think it would do a great disservice to the citizens of a country if its government says to foreign investors, "We will not accept your capital"-because it's that capital that can provide jobs and income in the host country, and goods that other countries need at the most competitive price.

QUESTION: Could you expand a little on increasing foreign investment in American firms?

FLANIGAN: Well, I just said we think capital flows should be free.

That means flows into other countries and flows into the United States.

It is the policy of this Administration that there should be no impedi-

ment to foreign investment in the United States.

Foreign companies have taken over U.S. companies in the past and no doubt this will happen again. We do impose some limitations in certain public service activities, such as air transportation or communications. But in general we do not restrict foreigners who wish to invest in the United States. If the stockholders of our companies wish to sell-except in the special cases I mentioned-and foreign interests wish to buy, they're welcome to do so. We say: "Come on in. The water's fine."

This is particularly important with regard to agricultural products.

Nontariff barriers to agricultural trade inhibit both the production and movement of a large volume of agricultural products, and the developing countries have a great need and potential for expanding their production and exports of these very products. Therefore, I expect they will playa significant role in the negotiations. I think they will press hard to remove these barriers, because they, at least as much as the developed countries, stand to gain from a successful round of negotiations.

QUESTION: How about the developing countries? How does the Administration expect to approach their economic development needs?

QUESTION: U.S. officials have also stressed the needfor the negotiations to bring about improved conditions for world trade in agricultural

FLANIGAN: Well, as you know, we have urged the U.S. Congress to products, putting the emphasis on the need to open up markets for effiprovide funds for the international financial institutions. We wish to cient producers. Has the recent tightness in world supplies offeed grains see them remain vigorous forces in the development process. In addi- and oilseeds opened up another perspective on this question? Is there a tion, we have asked Congress to appropriate the funds necessary to need to reform the trading rules for agricultural products to provide permit us to carry our fair share of the vital and important effort in greater assurances that adequate supplies will be available on world helping raise the standard of living in the developing countries. markets to accommodate all demands?

But in all honesty, I believe we should not become overly optimistic FLANIGAN: First, on the subject of supply. I believe adequate supregarding the benefits of official development aid. All the development plies will be best insured by giving farmers the incentive to produce. aid provided by all the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-opera- This means giving consumers-the people who want the goods-an tion and Development) countries represents only two per cent of the opportunity to bid for them in the market place, without imposing total gross national products of the developing countries. This is artificial restraints on the supply. obviously no more than a drop in the bucket.

In 1972we had not been able to supply quite all of the unexpectedly The major development push will have to come from the efforts of high foreign demand for our farm products. But frankly, we would these countries themselves. And their efforts can often be best stimu- have had the supplies-we would not have had 24 million hectares lated by private investment-investment that identifies the most effec- of crop land lying fallow-if our access to foreign markets had not tive and most productive economic activities in these countries, and been restricted previously.

In my view, the importance of giving priority to the agricultural brings in the capital to help develop these activities.

It's because of the importance of investment capital in the economic part of the trade negotiations has been underscored by the recent development process that we deplore nationalization of foreign invest- world-wide tightness in supplies of agricultural goods. Both exporters ment without proper compensation. All that does is to destroy the and importers need greater certainty and stability in the market place. opportunity of the host country to get more investment, which is just And since market prices have gone above the subsidy prices in most countries, farmers in the developed countries will be less concerned what it needs to develop its economy.

We recognize-and fully support-the position that any country by reductions in their countries' import barriers. That probably inhas the right to nationalize resources within its borders. But it has a creases the likelihood of successful negotiations in this area. But I firm obligation to pay an adequate price to the owner of those re- think all of us recognize this is the most sensitive and most difficult sources, and to pay it promptly. And we also think it's a terrible part of the negotiations. mistake for a country to nationalize foreign investments when it has limited capital of its own. This not only deprives the country of the QUESTION: In summary, and in terms of the lives of people in counbenefits of that capital, it also discourages more capital from coming tries around the world, what might the reforms of the international monetary system and the international trading system accomplish? in and creating further opportunities for development.

FLANIGAN: Well, since World War II, international commerce has QUESTION: There can be grant capital, investment capital, and also increased at twice the rate it did in the full century leading up to the war. I think that's been enormously beneficial to the peoples of the expanded returns through trade. What role do you expect the developing various countries that have participated in that increase. It's enriched countries to play in the trade negotiations now under way? What might their lives, not only materially by raising standards of living, but also they gain from the negotiations, and how actively do you think they by contributing to a more peaceful world. If your material well-being will participate?

FLANIGAN: I think they will playa very important role as principals depends on trade with other countries-and it most certainly doesin the negotiations, and I think they will participate actively. They then we must find a way to keep the peace in our increasingly interhave given every indication in all the preparatory meetings that they dependent world.

In the past 25 years, this participation in the international world of will play an active role.

I think these negotiations can be of enormous benefit to the develop- commerce has been uneven because some countries have had trade ing countries. The developed countries will pay a price if trade doesn't practices which limit participation in the benefits of expanded trade. expand, but they can live with it. The developing countries, on the It's my hope that as a result of the reformed system under which naother hand, have no way to improve their standards of living unless tions will deal commercially with one another in the future, all counthey can bring their goods and their products into the mainstream of tries will participate to a greater degree, and we'll all benefit from a world trade. And therefore it is in their most vital interest that tariff greater movement, and a faster movement, toward those generations of peace that President Nixon has made his primary goal.

0 and nontariff barriers to trade be reduced all around the world.

THE

END OF SCARCITY Social prophets have predicted both a utopian end of scarcity and a doomsday depletion of resources.

But the author of 'The Coming of Post-Industrial Society' argues that, although scarcity will remain a problem, it will take new forms in the shape of rising costs of time, information and co-ordination.

Not long ago social scientists were predicting dramatic changes in our work habits, the coming of a "leisure society," and-even more remarkably-the end of scarcity as we moved from an industrial to a post-industrial society. More recently we have been warned that, unless we curtail our appetites and learn to control our exploitation of the natural environment, there will be too many people, not enough resources, and more than enough waste and pollution to engulf future generations.

Both of these conceptions-a utopian end of scarcity and a catastrophic end of resources-seem to me to be wrong. What is more likely to come is a new and different set of scarcities, a new set of "costs" that previous generations did not have to pay but that must be borne by those inhabiting the post-industrial society.

Central to this discussion is the notion of scarcity, a word given many interpretations, but usually viewed as something absolute rather than relative, in physical rather than economic terms. For a number of writers the idea of a post-industrial society is equated with a post-scarcity society. David Riesman, when he first used the term "post-industrial" in 1958, was thinking of a "leisure society" and the sociological problems that might arise when, for the first time in human history, large numbers of persons had to confront the use of leisure time rather than the drudgery of work. Anarchist writers such as Paul Goodman and Murray Bookchin envisage a post-scarcity society as one in which technology has freed men from dependence on material things and thus provides the basis for a "free" relation to, rather than dependence on, nature. The elimination of scarcity, as the condition for abolishing all competitiveness and strife, has been the axial principle of all utopian thinking, including Marxist.

Although Marx himself rarely speculated on what the future society would be like, it is clear from every aspect of his work that the condition for socialism, for genuine equality, was economic abundance, the possibility of which lay in the

extraordinary accomplishments of the bourgeoisie. In 1848, in a startling panegyric in the Communist Manifesto, Marx wrote that the bourgeoisie "has been the first to show what man's activity can bring about," and has created "during its rule of scarcely 100 years ... more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all the preceding generations together."

Writing in 1930, John Maynard Keynes pointed out that the world-wide depression then under way was not the "rheumatics of old age" but the "growing pains of over-rapid changes ... between one economic period and another." The "disastrous mistakes" we have made "blind us to what is going on under the surface-to the true interpretation of the trend of things." The underlying trend of things could be seen in two innovations: the discovery of technical efficiency or productivity, and the sustained means for the accumulation of capital.

From the earliest times down to the 18th century, Keynes wrote, "there was no very great change in the standard of life ofthe average man living in the civilized centers of earth." But with the combination of technical efficiency and capital accumulation, mankind had discovered the "magic" of "compound interest," of growth building on growth. "If capital increases, say, two per cent per annum, the capital equipment of the world will have increased bya half in 20 years, and seven and a half times in 100 years. Think of this in terms of material things-houses, transport, and the like." And to Keynes this meant "in the long run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the standard of life in progressive countries 100 years hence will be between four and eight times as high as it is today .... It would not be foolish to contemplate the possibility of a far greater progress still." , In the decades since Keynes wrote, greater and greater progress, spurred by technological advances, has been envisaged by social scientists. This technological euphoria reached its vertex in 1964 with the statement of a group calling itself The Ad Hoc Committee on the Triple Revolution. "A new era of

Reprinted from Saturday Review of the Society. Abridged from the coda of The Coming of Post-Industrial . Society by Daniel Bell. Copyright Š 1973 by Daniel Bell, published by Basic Books, Inc., publishers, New York.

'The question used to be: Are there enough material goods, and how do we produce more? The question now becomes: What are the costs of new kinds of services, and how much are we willing to pay?'

production has begun," the committee declared; indeed, a new "cybernation revolution" was under way whose "principles of organization are as different from the industrial era as those of the industrial era were different from the agricultural." Cybernation-a term invented by Donald Michael-is "the combination of the computer and the automated self-regulating machine." The increased efficiency of machine systems "is shown in the more rapid increase in productivity per man-hour since 1960, a year that marks the first visible upsurge of the cybernation revolution." Cybernation results "in a system of almost unlimited productive capacity which requires progressively less labor."

Has the economic problem been solved? Will scarcity disappear? Put in the terms that socialist and utopian thinkers have used-19th-century terms-the answer is no, or not for a long time. For one thing the cybernetic revolution quickly proved to be illusory. There were no spectacular jumps in productivity. A detailed study by the President's Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, completed in 1966, showed that for the past two decades there had been no sharp changes in the rate of productivity, and, if one looked ahead 10 years-the period for which one could jdentify oncoming technological developments-there were no increases in the offing. In fact, the prospects for the economy were quite the reverse. The expansion of the service sectora significant feature of the post-industrial society-had become a drag on productivity. The image of a completely automated production economy-with an endless capacity to turn out goods-was simply a social science fiction of the early 1960s.

Paradoxically, the vision of utopia was suddenly replaced by the specter of doomsday. In place of the early 1960s' theme of endless plenty, the picture by the end of the decade was one of a fragile planet of limited resources whose finite stocks were being rapidly depleted and whose wastes from soaring industrial production were polluting the air and waters. Now the only way of saving the world was zero growth.

The difficulty with such thinking is that it assumes that no qualitative change takes place, or is even possible. But this is clearly not so. Materials can be recycled. New sources of energy (e.g., solar energy) can be tapped. We do not yet have a full inventory of the mineral and metal resources of the earth (in the oceans, Siberia, the Amazon basin, and elsewhere). And technology makes possible the transmutation of resources. For example, taconite, once thought to be worthless, is now a vast source of iron ore; aluminum oxide, once a curiosity, has now become a source of hundreds of millions of tons of metal re-

serve because industrial chemistry reduced the cost of extraction. The ecological models take the physical finiteness of the earth as the ultimate bound, but this is fundamentally misleading. Resources are properly measured in economic, not physical, terms, and on the basis of relative costs new investments are made that can irrigate arid land, drain swampy land, clear forests, explore for new resources, or stimulate the process of extraction and transmutation. These methods of adding to the supplies of "fixed resources" have been going on throughout human history.

If in the foreseeable future-say for the next 100 yearsthere will be neither utopia nor doomsday but the same state that has existed for the last 100 years-namely, the fairly steady advance of "compound interest"-the banality of this fact (how jaded we soon become to the routinization of the spectacular!) should not obscure the extraordinary achievement Keynes called attention to. For the first time in human history, he reminded us, the problem of survival in the bare sense of the word-freedom from hunger and disease-need no longer exist. The question before the human race is not subsistence but standard of living, not biology but sociology. Basic needs are satiable, and the possibility of abundance is real. To that extent, the Marx-Keynes vision of the economic meaning of industrial society is certainly true.

But this is to define the future in 19th-century terms, to conceive of scarcity as something to be overcome by the production of goods, and to see society as a game between man and nature, a game man wins when he can wrest enough goods and thereby "conquer" scarcity. When the interaction between man and nature, if not at an end, is less pressing, the primary mode of interaction becomes that among persons-and this is the design of post-industrial society. This new design brings with it a new set of scarcities, not viewed in physical terms as something to be overcome by production, but seen in economic terms measurable in rising costs. For pre-industrial society, scarcity is an absolute measure of have or have not. Yet few goods are completely "free," and if we think of scarcity, we have to think of relative costs.

The question used to be: Are there enough material goods, and how do we produce more? The question now becomes: What are the costs of new kinds of services, and how much are we willing to pay?

Thus, if we think of scarcity in terms of cost, the postindustrial society brings with it a whole new set of scarcities.

What have become costly in this society are information, coordination, and time. The 19th century never thought of these in terms of costs, but now because we have to pay more for time, each is a scarcity. Let us examine them one by one.

The post-industrial society is an information society, and the centrality of information creates some new and different problems for the society to manage. These are: 1. The sheer amount of information that one has to absorb because of the expansion of the different arenas-economic, political, and social-of men's attention and involvement.

More information is not complete information; if anything, it makes information more and more incomplete. For example, in the political world one must keep up with the changing fortunes of several dozen countries and pay consistent atten-

tion to political situations in a half-dozen areas of the world simultaneously. And the cost of gathering relevant information necessarily goes up.

2. The increasingly technical nature of the information.

Today the discussion of international affairs involves a knowledge of balance of payments, of first- and second-strike nuclear capabilities, and so forth; to judge economic policy on unemployment and inflation, one has to understand the intersects of the Phillips curve, the relation of monetary to fiscal policy, and the like. Information thus becomes more arcane, and one must study a subject more intensively than ever before.

3. The greater need for mediation, or journalistic translation: news is no longer reported but interpreted. There is the question of selection from the vast flow of information; explanation is required because of the technical nature of the information. Not only do journalists have to become more specialized, but the journals themselves become more differentiated in order to explain the new theories to intermediate and mass audiences. The differentiation of journalism inevitably becomes a rising "cost" to the society.

4. The sheer limits of the amount of information one can absorb. There is an outer limit to the span of control of the "bits" of information an individual can "process" at one time.

There is equally an outer limit to the amount of information about events one can absorb (or the fields or interests one can pursue). And with the "exponential" growth of kilOwledge and the multiplication of fields and interests, the knowledge that any individual can retain about the variety of events or the span of knowledge inevitably diminishes. More and more we know less and less.

The Costs of Co-ordination The post-industrial society is a "game between persons" that requires increasing amounts of co-ordination, especially when that game is carried on in a visible political arena rather than through the "invisible hand" of the economic marketplace. The costs of co-ordination can be deducted from this change in the locus of decision making.

1. Participation. The expansion of the political arena and the involvement of a greater number of persons means that it takes more time and greater cost to reach a decision and to get anything done. More claimants are involved, interests multiply, caucuses have to meet, demands have to be bargained over, differences have to be mediated-and time and costs mount up as each person or interest wants to have a say. Often one hears the statement that individuals or groups feel "powerless" to affect affairs. But there is probably more participation today than ever before in political life, at all levels of government, and that very increase in participation leads to the multiplication of groups that "check" each other, and thus to the sense of impasse. Thus i.ncreased participation paradoxically leads, more often than not, to increased frustration.

2. Interaction. With the expansion of the world sensorium, we exchange more telephone calls, travel more often, go to more conferences, meet more people. But at what cost? Either one accepts the fleeting nature of such encounters, or one encounters an "upper bound" that limits the degree of personal interaction. What happens is that the number of contacts and interactions often increases at the expense of one's relatively good friendships. Tncreasingly, one goes through "cycles" of

friendship while at a particular job or place, and then these end or become attenuated as one moves on to a different job or place. Thus the increase of mobility, spatial and social, has its costs in the multiplication of interactions and networks that one has experienced.

3. Transaction. In our definition of freedom we attach a high value to easy mobility and freedom from schedules. We seek to have rapid and easy access from our homes to any other point. Living farther apart, we need to ship more goodsand to ship ourselves-across larger distances. As a result we incur an increasing amount of what one might call transaction costs, especially in the form of goods and space devoted to communication and transportation.

Two cars per family no longer represent an increase in the standard of living. These are part of the rising transaction costs of the newer affluent lifestyles-and they give rise to large social costs in the congestion on the roads, the lack of ample parking space, air pollution, and the like. The costs of freedom and mobility in the end become quite high and must be regulated, or the lifestyle becomes self-defeating.

4. Planning. Inevitably a complex society, like the large, complex organizations within it, becomes a planning society.

The large corporations engage in five-year and even longerrange planning in order to identify new products, estimate capital needs, replace obsolescent plants, train labor, and so on. Necessarily, government begins to plan-in dealing with such questions as renewal of cities, building of housing, planning of medical care, etc. The costs of planning, involving as they do research and consultation, inevitably become more expensive as more and more factors-and claimants-enter into the planning process.

5. Regulation. The more income and the greater the abundance in a society, the greater becomes the need for regulation and for an increase in the costs of regulation. It may well be, as Herman Kahn has predicted, that U.S. private income in the year 2000 will be $10,000 a person, as against $3,550 in 1965, but that person will not be three times better off, just as a person today, whose income is twice as high as it was 20 years ago, is not twice as well off as he was then. As incomes rise, there is a greater demand for goods or amenities that are by their nature limited: access to parks, to beaches, to vacation homes, to travel. The greater use of these amenities involves more planning, scheduling, and regulation.

The moral is clear: Without appropriate organization the results are apt to be unsatisfactory. But organization, too, has its costs, not only in time, personnel, and money, but in the degree of coercion required. As Mancur Olsen pointed out several years ago in his pathbreaking book The Logic of Collective Action, the nature of collective goods or benefits is such that they apply to all in the group, and it is impossible to exclude any member of the group from the benefits. But for this very reason there is often an incentive for each individual not to make a payment of his own accord, since he will receive the benefit once it is extended. This is why, for example, trade unions seek to impose a closed shop or obligatory union membership on all workers in a plant in order to bar a "free ride" for those who do not pay the union dues. For a collective action to be fair, everyone must be required to join the agreement.

Again, greater abundance and more time for leisure create wider choice and more individual options, but also, and

Most of the durable goods we buy -houses, motor cars, boats, television sets-have costs in the form of time required to enjoy them. The more things we have, the less 'free time' we are likely to have to enjoy them.

paradoxically, the greater need for collective regulation. If all people are to coexist, there is a greater need for a social contract, but for that contract to work it must also be enforceable -which is also a greater cost.

The Costs of Time Benjamin Franklin, that practical Yankee, used to say that "time is money," a remark that Max Weber regarded as the heart of the Protestant ethic of calculation. We usually think of time as a cost when applied to production. When a machine is idle-or "downtime" -costs mount up; an efficient manager seeks to get full use of the time of the machine. But consumption also requires time. In the modern economy, which is one of growing abundance, time paradoxical1y becomes the scarcest element of all. Unlike other economic resources, time cannot be accumulated. In economic terms there is a limited "supply" of time. And like any limited supply, it has a cost.

When productivity is low, time is relatively cheap; when productivity is high, time becomes relatively expensive. In short, economic growth entails a general increase in the 'scarcity of time.

Working time is subject to measurement and allocation.

Time, outside of work, is "free time" for play or leisure. But in the post-industrial society that "free time" also becomes subject to measurement and allocation, and the "yield on time" in those activities is brought into parity with the yield on working time.

There are three areas in which this calculus begins to take hold: 1. Services. Most of the durable goods we buy-TV sets, autos, houses-have costs in the form of time required for maintenance. An individual can either take these costs out of his own time (e.g., paint the house himself), or engage a service man to do the work. When only a small proportion of people own many goods, it is easy to farm out the maintenance cost.

But as productivity rises and the high yield on time spreads throughout the whole society, the price of maintenance services rises, too. Thus the consumer finds he needs more income to buy the maintenance time required for his consumer goods.

2. Consumption. The pleasures of consumption take time: the time to read a book, to talk to a friend, to drink a cup of coffee, to travel abroad. In "backward countries" with fewer goods to enjoy, there is more time. But when a man has a sailing boat, a sports car, or a series of concert tickets, he finds that his "free time" is his scarcest resource. If he wants to go to a concert, he may have to rush through his dinner, and since good cooking takes time, he may buy frozen dinners that can be cooked quickly. If he goes to a concert and takes his dinner

afterward, he may have to stay up too late and thus lose sleep in order to get to work "on time." If he could cut down the "on time" requirements, he would have more time, but then he would have to be quite wealthy or retired. So he must ration and allocate his time.

3. Time-savers. Since "free time" becomes more and more precious, the consumer will tend to buy those items that require relatively little of his nonwork time and relatively more of his income from work. He will buy items that he can use and then throwaway. He will "contract out" various services or maintenances (as he now sends clothes to the dry cleaner's).

And to do this, he may have to work longer in order to acquire the kinds of goods and services that give him a high yield on his non work time. But the cost may be too high, and he has to begin to reckon his trade-offs. He must calculate relative prices and yields from different al1ocations of time and money.

He may find that because of high maintenance cost he will do his own laundry or dry cleaning in a self-service store, thus spending part of his time to save money. Or he may want to spend money to save time. In balancing these considerations he begins to plot (without knowing that he is doing technical economics) an indifference curve of differential scales of substitution (of time and money) and the marginal utility of each unit of satisfaction in the different sectors of his expenditures.

Low yields have to be transferred to high yields until, at the end, his resources have been so efficiently distributed as to give him an equal yield in all sectors of use. Economic abundance thus reintroduces utility by the back door of time. Man, in his leisure time, has become homo economicus.

In cruel fashion, utopia thus stands confounded. The end of scarcity, as it was envisaged by 19th-century writers, would bring such a plethora of goods that man would no longer need to delay his gratifications or live like a calculating machine.

And yet it has all been turned around. Industrial society is spectacularly devoted to the production of things. But in the post-industrial society the multiplication of things and their rising custodial costs bring time into the calculus of allocating one's personal activities; men become enslaved to its measurement through marginal utility.

In utopia (as in the market economy) each man is to be free to pursue his own interest, but in the post-industrial society-where the relation among men (rather than between man and nature, or man and things) becomes the primary mode of interaction-the clash of individual interests, each following its own whim, leads necessarily to a greater need for collective regulation and a greater degree of coercion in order to have effective communal action. And when individuals demand full participation in the decisions that affect their lives, the consequence is an increase in information costs and in the time required for bargaining in order to reach agreement.

The end of scarcity, it was believed-the leap from the kingdom of necessity-would be the freeing of time from the inexorable rhythm of economic life. In the end, all time has become an economic calculus. As Auden put it, "Time will say only, I told you so."

0 About the Author: Daniel Bell is Professor of Sociology at Harvard and co-editor of the quarterly The Public Interest. His books include History of Marxian Socialism in the U.S. and The Coming of Post-Industrial Society, from which this article has been adapted.

Reprinted from U.S. News & World Report, November 28, 1973, published at Washington, D.C.

WHAT'S HOlDING UP NUClEAR POWER;J respect to nuclear plants, however, we had the added problem of the Calvert Cliffs decision in 1971. ...

Q. Dr. Ray, what is the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission doing to help ease America's energy crisis?

A. First of all, an effort is being made to bring more nuclear reactors into service, and that will certainly help take some of the pressure off the energy crisis. Nuclear plants now supply something approaching five per cent of the electricity for this country with the 42 units now in operation. And we're hopeful that another 21 plants will go on line during the next 12 months.

Q. President Nixon, in proclaiming an energy emergency in this country, asked the Atomic Energy Commission to reduce the lead time in bringing new atomic power plants into service. Is that possible?

A. We are deeply committed to reducing the amount of time required to review and build nuclear power plants. The President has suggested that this time be cut from 10 years to six years, and we think it can be done. We are going to give it our best effort. We are examining more effective steps toward standardization of plant design. We are studying ways to implement the use of pre-approved sites of various kinds, and we are undertaking a full review of possible alternative types of licenses.

All of these things can save valuable time.

Already we have made progress at the operating-license phase. We are now at a point where the Commission is ready to make a decision on an operating license when the plant is ready to begin operation. We will move as expeditiously as possible in making adjustments in the licensing process which can be made without compromising our rigid standards of safety.

Q. Are public protests the major delaying factor in getting new atomic plants into operation?

A. Delays are due to a combination of reasons. Public protest is one. But there are others, such as delays in getting equipment and materials and delays caused by labor difficulties. In some cases, they are the very same reasons that have kept more oil refineries from being built in the past few years,

Q. Has the energy shortage already speeded the process of getting reactors into operation?

A. I think that would have happened anyway.

But there is, I believe, a growing recognition that fossil-fuel supplies are limited, that nuclear power can be used to produce electricity.

It is a waste to use either natural gas or oil -using those two as an illustration-to burn under a boiler to produce electricity when one has alternatives.

Heavy industry and the transportation sector especially need these fossil fuels. They shouldn't be wasted.

The Chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Dr. Dixy Lee Ray (above), predicts that by the year 2000, the U.S. will have about 1,000 nuclear plants as compared to 42 today.

and why fossil-fired power plants are also suffering scheduling setbacks.

Just for the record, I'm no expert on oil.

But using it as an illustrationWe all want the use of oil, and there is demand, as you know, in many sectors of the economy for its use as fuel. We all recognize that this material has to be both taken out of the ground and refined in refineries. Like sewage-treatment plants, however, everybody knows we need them, but nobody wants one nearby. Everyone agrees: "Sure, we have to have oil refineries. Just put them someplace else." But that someplace else always has somebody who will say: "No, don't put it in our backyard."

Q. Does this apply to nuclear power plants, too?

A. Certainly. The problem is the same for all kinds, whether coal, oil or nuclear. With

Q. What do you mean when you say fossil fuels are being wasted?

A. I can make this point as follows: Some time ago, the Minister of Water and Power for the Government of Iran visited us. I couldn't help but ask him, since he was obviously getting as much information as he could about nuclear-powered plants, "Why, in Iran, with all the oil you have, are you going to build nuclear power plants to generate electricity?"

He said, "We have no plan to use petroleum for any such purpose, and none of our electricity will be produced that way because we consider petroleum far too valuable simply to produce heat for making electricity."

Q. What do the Atomic Energy Commission's long-range projections show about the generation of electricity by nuclear plants?

A. Our present projections-as accurately as anybody can figure-call for about 1,000 nuclear power plants to be operating by the year 2000. That's quite a jump from the 42 we now have. And these new plants will average about 1,000 megawatts apiece. That means one of these plants by itself will be able to handle the electrical-power needs of a city the size of Washington, D.C.-not including the suburbs.

Q. What other developments look encouraging?

A. We're making headway with the fast-

breeder reactor-the one that generates more nuclear fuel than it consumes. Plans are being drawn for our first large-sized demonstration plant at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, but it still will be at least another 10 years before such breeder reactors are ready for commercial use.

There has also been a lot more interest recently in solar and geothermal energy-but, again, they won't be major contributors to our energy supply for quite some time.

Then, of course, there's fusion, and all of its potential for providing virtually limitless power, but that's a long way down the road.

Q. What isfusion, and how does it differ from the fission process that now powers nuclear plants?

A. The word fission means splitting apart.

The radioactive atom is unstable, and in the case of uranium 235 emits a neutron or so.

That neutron goes out and hits another atom, breaking it apart and bumping neutrons from it. It's the control of that chain reaction and capturing of the energy released in each step that produces power from the fission process.

Now, fusion is something else again. This is what powers the sun and the stars. It is essentially a matter of taking hydrogen atoms under conditions of extraordinarily high temperatures and fusing them together to make helium. During every second of the sun's existence, it converts 524 million tons of hydrogen into 520 million tons of helium.

The four million tons of something left over is the energy-the light, heat and various forms of radiation.

That's what we call fusion. This process, we think, can be perfected in fusion reactors here on the earth, using hydrogen from ordinary sea water as fuel.

Q. Will a fusion reactor be safer than those using the fission process?

A. It will have one big advantage: Its fuel and waste products are much less radioactive.

With the systems we envision today, we're talking about temperatures for fusion that reach millions of degrees. We've got to invent ways to contain these gases at those temperatures. What kind of material do you know of that will withstand 100 million degrees F? So we're experimenting with holding the fuel in a magnetic field. The hot gases are called "plasma," and that's where a major portion of the plasma physicists are working now.

And for a marine biologist like me, that's all I know about fusion!

Q. Have there been many accidents involving nuclear power plants?

A. No member of the public ever has been

hurt in the operation of any commercial nuclear power plant from exposure to radioactive material. And the safety record within the Atomic Energy Commission's own production plants from 1942 is extraordinary.

Q. What is that record?

A. There have been only seven radiationassociated deaths in more than 30 years.

Q. Where will utilities put these 1,000 nuclear plants that are supposed to be built in the next 25 years? Is there enough unpopulated land?

A. For today, yes. For the needs we anticipate by the end of this century, maybe. Understand, this is my personal opinion. We are studying this question right now.

I believe-and again, we are studying this subject-that we should cluster nuclear power plants instead of spreading them all over the countryside.

In addition, at the same location, we should put fuel-fabrication plants, processing plants and waste-handling equipment. Everything should be at one location. That would mean less transportation of hazardous materials. It also means these facilities would be large enough to hire the best safety and environmental people in the field.

Q. Will disposal of radioactive waste become a problem with all these new plants coming into operation?

A. Let me separate this into three parts: First, there is the waste that comes from the nuclear-weapons program. There is a lot of this stuff, and it's been accumulating for 30 years.

Secondly, there are many industrial and medical uses of radioactive materials-ranging from density gauges in production plants all the way up to brain-scanning examinations. In 1972, one of every three people that entered a hospital in the U.S. was either treated or diagnosed with radioactive isotopes of some kind. The waste from these activities is all low-level waste, and much of the disposal is done commercially.

Q. What is the third element of these wastes?

A. Waste from nuclear power plants. But let me hold off a minute on that because right now it is trivial compared to what has come out of the weapons program ....

Q. What's being done to solve the waste problem in nuclear power plants?

A. Everybody wants to know why we haven't got some place right now specially designed to handle this material. The answer is simple: There's not enough of it. Commercial nuclear power plants don't produce very much waste.

In 10 years-when we expect to have a new waste facility-we'll have enough power plants to warrant the expense and concern.

Nevertheless, because of the amount of public concern being expressed on this subject, we are being pushed into making a decision so we will be able to say, "Yes, we're going to dispose of it this way or that." We didn't want to close off any options, but we're being pushed in that direction right now.

Q. Are the wastes from nuclear power plants less dangerous than other kinds? Is there less radioactivity?

A. I didn't say less radioactivity. In fact, there is more radioactivity. The stuff is hot-highly radioactive-and it is dangerous. But thus far the volume has been small. It is nothing like the 65 million gallons at Hanford in Washington state generated by the weapons program. From now until the end of the century, there will not be anywhere near that amount of radioactive waste generated by the operation of nuclear power plants.

Q. How much waste will be generated from power plants?

A. All right, I said that by the year 2000 we may have something like 1,000 nuclear power plants in operation. The total volume of wastes from those plants, assuming that it is solidified, could easily be stacked up on a tennis court.

Q. A growing number of scientists are getting excited about a possible ÂŤhydrogen economy" in the U.S. Is it likely that hydrogen will eventually replace fossil fuels?

A. Hydrogen is a very, very interesting material. There are people who believe that the so-called hydrogen economy is a viable alternative for the future. But you've got to ask the question: "Where do you get the hydrogen?" And, generally speaking, the best hydrogen source is water, and to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, takes enormous amounts of energy.

A second problem is that hydrogen is hard to handle. To be handled in volume it must be very, very cold, and it tends to make most metals very brittle, and that's a bad thing to happen to metal.

But we're not rejecting hydrogen. It has 0 interesting possibilities for the future.

About the Interviewee: Dr. Dixy Lee Ray became the first woman Chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission in '73. She wasformerly on the faculty of the University of Washington. Seattle.

Atomic power plants, geothermal and solar energy, coal, oil shales, and the force of the ocean's¡ tides-these and many other solutions are being offered to the world's desperate energy problem.

But more promising than them all, perhaps, is harnessing the power of the hydrogen bomb.

IS FUSION THE ULTIMATE SOLUTION;J

If man can ever harness the thermonuclear fusion reaction of the hydrogen-bomb to generate electricityand there is every indication that he can-he will have conquered the energy problem for all time.

Thermonuclear fusion has the potential to provide the world with a cheap and abundant source of energy-a source as ancient as the sun itself, for it is the fusion process by which energy is produced in the sun and other stars.

The fusion reactor of the future would use light atoms such as deuterium (an isotope of hydrogen) and lithium, or possibly deuterium alone, as its basic fuel source. These materials are in ample supply. In a fusion reaction, the nuclei of these atoms are joined together. (By contrast, in a fission reaction, the reaction that takes place in nuclear reactors and in the ordinary A-bomb, the nuclei of heavy atoms such as uranium and plutonium are split apart.) In both reactions, large amounts of energy and large quantities of neutrons are released. The advantage that fusion has over fission, however, is that immense energy comes from a tiny amount of material. For instance, a large fusion reactor would hold only about two grams of fuel. But what makes fusion power even more attractive is the amount of fuel available to the world.

The supply offusion fuel is virtually inexhaustible. Deuterium can be extracted cheaply from the world's oceans. Another advantage of fusion over fission is in the problem of pollution. Radioactive wastes will be about 1,000 times less than in conventional nuclear reactors. The main product of the fusion process is innocuous helium gas.

Thermonuclear power plants will also minimize the waste-heat problem. Most of the proposed fusion devices would use the thermonuclear reaction as a source of heat for converting water or some other fluid to steam to drive a more or less conventional turbine. But some scientists believe it might be possible to bypass the inefficient steam cycle, where great heat losses occur, and convert the stream of charged particles emerging from a fusion reaction directly into electricity.

Though any estimate of the potential efficiency of fusion reactors is still highly conjectural, fusion physicists believe that they might convert a respectable 40 to 60 per cent of fusion's heat into electricity. Some have even speculated that fusion reactors could one day virtually eliminate the waste-heat problem altogether.

Existing power plants are about 30 to 40 per cent efficient.

When can the world expect fusion power plants to become a reality? "Before the year 2000," according to Dr. Melvin B.

Gottlieb of Princeton University's Plasma Physics Laboratory and one of the leaders in nuclear fusion research. "We'll solve the problem in principle well before then-we think within 10 years. But then the solutions of the engineering problems of practical, safe and economic reactors -these will take some decades."

Most scientists agree that man has never tackled a more difficult engineering problem than that of developing a fusion reactor. To make controlled fusion work, one must heat a tenuous ionized gas to temperatures on the order of a hundred million degrees Fahrenheit. The gas must be "contained" in some way so that it cannot touch and melt the walls of the vessel. And it must be held in this condition long enough for the fusion reaction to take place.

"We have been able to maintain the burn for a few hundredths of a second now," Dr. Gottlieb said. "To be in business, we have to raise that to a full second by increasing the thermal insulation."

One of the most promising experiments so far is the use of powerful laser beams to engender nuclear fusion. In this effort, scientists such as Dr. Leonard M. Goldman at the University of Rochester in Rochester, New York, [right] are attempting to induce fusion reaction by using lasers to heat the deuterium atoms to fusion temperatures. Fusion-through-laser research in America is also being conducted at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and many other places.

The laser is only one of several tools that scientists around the. world are trying to use to control thermonuclear fusion. As a matter of fact, fusion research, according to Dr. Gottlieb, "is probably the greatest international effort of our time. Almost every industrialized nation is working on it ... and there is great freedom in exchange of information. We don't think the Russians are holding out on us. We've been all through their labs and we've profited greatly from their experiments and their ideas, as they have from ours.

"The International Atomic Energy Commission sponsors a major meeting on controlled fusion every three years and there are many more international seminars under other auspices. We've had good scientific people, including Egyptian and Israeli scientists, working here from all over the world. The co-operation is at a high level."

D

Right: Dr. Leonard M. Goldman of the University of Rochester adjusts instrumentation on top of a special chamber in which laser pulses are used to heat deuterium atoms to fusion temperatures.

TARGET WITH FOUR FACES, (opposite page), 1954, combines a richly painted surface with wood and realistic plaster sculpture.

More than any other work, it established Johns's reputation as a major new artist. The target surmounted by four apparently imprisonedfemale faces creates an effect that is both mysterious and sinister. PAINTED BRONZE (right), 1960, a pair of ale cans, is one of the pieces credited with having inspired the pop art movement.

Jasper Johns"sElusive BuIl"s~Eye His paintings are enigmatic, hermetic, sometimes didactic -not pop art, nor op art, nor anti-art. Bewilderingly simple and bald, they may also be the most influential works of the past decade.

Jasper Johns's face, as a writer pointed out some years ago, resembles that of William S. Hart, the silent gunslinger of the silent Westerns. The narrow, crinkled eyes stare flatly, with an expression of ironic watchfulness, across the V of a gun sight or the end of a paintbrush at-in either casea target. It is the mask of cool, of a dandy who shuts up and puts up.

What goes on behind that mask has provoked reams of critical speculation for more than a decade; it was 16 years ago, to be exact, that the 28-year-old Johns had his first show at Leo Castelli's gallery in New York. Since he afterward became to the 1960s what Willem de Kooning was to the 1950s-the most influential American artist of the decade-it is difficult to remember with what an air of prodigy Jasper Johns burst upon New York. Trailing no discernible past behind him, he landed on point at center stage.

The biography is scanty: Born May 15, 1930, in Augusta, Georgia, the son of a farmer. Eighteen months of college at the University of South Carolina; one day at Hunter College in New York. Two years of Army service, mostly in Japan. Several years of drifting in Manhattan after he began, in 1952, to paint "seriously," supporting himself, but only just, through

odd jobs, such as selling books and doing window displays for Tiffany's and other uptown stores with his friend Robert Rauschen berg.

"I had never heard of Jasper," Leo Castelli recalls, "until I saw his Green Target in a show at the Jewish Museum in 1957.

The name, the assonance I suppose-J.J.stuck in my mind. And it was a very singular painting, quite unlike anything I'd seen before. I meant to look him up, but I couldn't find out anything about him. Nobody else had ever heard of him, either.

Then I was visiting Bob Rauschenberg one day, and he happened to mention a young painter who lived in the loft below, a friend named Jasper Johns. So I asked if I could visit. When the door opened, I was stupefied. You see, there they all were, just stacked around the wall ... the flags, the targets,

everything Jasper had done up to then.

Possibly every dealer has one exquisite moment of discovery in his life, which seems to justify all the buying and selling.

Vollard's was meeting Picasso. Certainly mine was Jasper."

Success is the most obvious characteristic of Johns's reputation, and it has turned out to be both a problem and an emblem: a problem, because it is self-contradicting; an emblem, because it anticipated and colored the consumer frenzy of New York art in the 1960s.Johns's first show was sold out, and he was all but unanimously elected the historical alternative to the broad, slashing, romantic art of the abstract expressionists; with him, and Rauschenberg, the decade was given its birth certificate.

The Museum of Modern Art, a rather more powerful taste-making instrument then than now, bought three canvases from Johns's first show in 1958, an unheard-of gesture to an unknown painter; several other museums followed suit. If ever a reputation was launched by one swipe of the Establishment's hand, it was Johns's. This instant acceptance helped touch off the lunacies of pop ballyhoo: an avid public began looking for new Jaspers under every stone. To be seized as the paradigm of allAmerican success was a strange fate for so complex and reclusive an artist.

In 1959 Hilton Kramer (now an art critic for The New York Times) unburdened himself of the view that Johns's work was both "mock-naIve" and corrupt: "His handpainted American flags, targets, numbers, and so on, are a kind of Grandma Moses version of Dada [a modern European art movement which stood in open defiance to all previous art forms]. But Dada sought to repudiate and criticize bourgeois values, whereas Johns ... aims

to please and confirm the decadent periphery of bourgeois taste." The years have not confirmed this irritable judgment. The "decadent periphery" was served not by Johns but by the hundreds of artists who, feeling the influence of his work, responded to it mechanically and blatantly, without a trace of the formidably intelligent maze of nuances, ironies, and sheer painterly skill with which Johns contrived to surround every image he produced.

It is grim enough to be the most influential artist in America, and New York's taxes on talent (to be paid at times, as by some abstract expressionists, in alcoholism, paranoia, and suicide) are dreadful. Johns's defense is withdrawal, a remarkable degree

of public silence. Even his studio is an architectural¡ irony: an unused bank on Houston Street in Manhattan, a bare room 30 meters square, with the old vaults below, where instead of bonds and safety-deposit boxes, Johns's paintings are stored. There can be no more succinct image of the interchangeability of imagination and capital that was the sustaining myth of the New York art market in the 1960s. The paintings Johns showed in 1958 have now increased in value 40- or 50-fold. Johns's large painted version of Buckminster Fuller's Dymaxion world map was purchased for some $200,000-the highest price yet for a work by a living American artist.

These statistics are not, perhaps, very

interesting in themselves. Who remembers the recent million-dollar Van Gogh? But they cast an oblique light on the difficulties of Johns's position. American culture consumes stars. But Johns, in his public and private attitudes, tries to eschew the role of culture hero. The model here is Marcel Duchamp, who was Johns's friend. Much of Johns's work is a sustained meditation on the lessons to be learned from the unique open-endedness of Duchamp's work. According to What is Johns's equivalent of Duchamp's Tu m' (1918), complete with a small canvas facing the picture surface and displaying the title on its back and a plaster cast of the leg of the art critic Barbara Rose.

It swings from its half-chair at the top left-

hand corner and casts a shadow, in the manner of the illusory shadows in Duchamp's earlier work.

There are plenty of anecdotes about Johns. Some of them are even true, like the story about the origin of Painted Bronze [see page 23], the celebrated cast-bronze ale cans Johns made in 1960. De Kooning, irritated

by Leo Castelli, was heard to grumble that "that son of a bitch could sell a couple of beer cans." Johns overheard, thought it not a bad idea, and went back to the studio and made the work, which Castelli duly sold to the collector Robert Scull for $1,200. Last year, the sculpture was sold for $90,000.

In the 19th century, Walter Pater wrote that art aspired to the condition of music-

the perfect, internal harmony of parts. In the 20th, Johns's proposition is that art aspires to the condition of silence. By definition no work of art can reach this state (art, inevitably, means some kind of discourse). But a void can surround an image; it can be enveloped by absences, as under a bell jar. So it is with the deliberate. One is tempted to write about the ostentatious ordinariness of Johns's subject matter.

There is not much to be thought, it seems, about a coat hanger, a flashlight, a .set of numbers or letters, a brace of Ballantine ale cans, or-once you have dispensed with the patriotic associations, which are no concern of Johns's and have nothing to do with his art-an American flag. Why, ,then,

ACCORDING TO WHAT (above), 1964, is a 16-foot-long canvas that incorporates various objects. One of fohns's major works, it has been praised as "the capstone of a decade." At top left is a plaster cast of a female leg attached to half a chair, upside down. A small canvas with title, at bottom left, unhooks to reveal a portrait of the artist's mentor, Marcel Duchamp.

Some of the big letters are painted; some are aluminum objects that swing back and forth.

make them subjects of art?

Because, as Johns once put it, "using the design of the American flag took care of a great deal for me because I didn't have to design it. So I went on to similar things like targets-things that the mind already knows. That gave me room to work on other levels."

The diabolic rigor with which Johns keeps narrative out of his work can be indicated by one example. Target With Four Faces [see page 22] involves a row of four plaster casts of part of a girl's face. Each is the same girl. But she became progressively more tired, and this showed in the casts as a nearly imperceptible slackening of her mouth. In the painting Johns reversed casts three and four, to avoid the look of accumulating expression-of a "story."

Despite (or thanks to) such hidden nuances, Johns's work can look bewilderingly simple and bald, its declarations as flat as

the enumerative descriptions in a catalogue novel. American flags are made of cloth.

Can one imagine an American flag made of paint? And if there were an American flag made of paint, would it be a flag, or a painting, or both? And is a flag made of paint a painting of a flag, or does the fact of its being painted return it to the area of pure abstract design? The rendering of such a configuration in paint contrives in an extremely subtle way to change its use. For it will now attract more attention than is given to a flag. Perhaps a memory of my own will clarify the manner of this change. It has to do with shooting, and thus with targets.

As a boy in Australia one of my obsessions was target shooting with a .22 rifle.

How a marksman sees a target defines its visual function, since a target has no use except to be shot at. And this way of seeing depends on selective inattention. Only the

bull's-eye really matters. The outer rings are just for orientation. Once you see a target esthetically, its use is lost. The paradox is that a target is never scrutinized except in terms of an action that is not "seeing"-to wit, squeezing a trigger at the right moment. It is a sign, not an image. An image requires scrutiny and penetration; its "use" is the imaginative process of comprehending it, which happens more gradually. But one stares at a sign; it is unambiguous, clear and functional. Use and form are linked in a rigid way: use precedes form.

But what if use follows form? Can some change be made in the form of a target, and in the way of looking at it, that will cancel its use? That was the question Johns posed nearly 20 years ago in paintings like Target with Four Faces and Target with Plaster Casts (1955). His strategy was to switch the target's nature from sign back to image.

MAP, 1967-1971 (30 by 15 feet), is based on a famous projection invented by Buckminster Fuller-the Dymaxion Airocean World projection. This map, says Fuller, "revealed the world's land masses as a one-world island at the bottom of the airocean." Fuller's map can be cut out and folded into a polyhedron. Johns's is intended to be flat. He originally painted it as an almost literal rendering of world geography, but later reworked the surface into a thick, whirling collage of oil paint, varnish, wax and bits of newspaper.

You are forced to deal with the target's five rings-three greenish-blue ones, two yellow, centered on a rich red field-as painting and painting alone. This happens through the way they are painted: an even, sumptuous, almost edible skin of encaustic, so full of nuances and little incidents that the eye travels every inch of it with relish.

No part is more "important," visually, than any other part, and the idea of putting a bullet through it becomes absurd. What is there to aim at? Thus a sign, which can only be stared at, becomes a painterly image, which must be scanned.

Few painters have the icy detachment that would let them follow Johns all the way into his labyrinth of contradiction. Yet his influence on other artists (especially American artists) has been vast, not only as a moral presence on the scene, but as a stylistic one, too. Even though much of pop art is a vulgarization of Johns's use of

banal, everyday signs and things, the ancestry is clear. But what is not so commonly acknowledged is Johns's influence, especially through his flags, on "literal" abstraction and minimal art. Much fuss was made of the "objectness" of the paintings of certain abstractionists in the 1960s, like Frank Stella. But in the mid-1950s Johns had already done his flags with no field behind them; the image, or sign, was the entire painting. At this point, he said, "it was clear that the painting was an object not a window," tightly structured and dense.

The swing from abstract expressionism to the new literalism of the '60s hinges on Johns's work. In this way, he began two opposing tendencies, pop and minimal, that have fought it out, like Cain and Abel, in the galleries and art reviews ever sinceunder their sire's neutral and detached gaze. In his work he has contrived to expose and clarify most of the interesting

issues related to art in the past decade, and to do it better than words normally can: At the same time, his work exists with exemplary purity as painting, creating fresh structures of visual experience. "Everything in nature," Jasper Johns has remarked, "has limitless possibilities. In my work, there is some attempt to distinguish the possibilities." There is an echo in that sentence. Leonardo, with whom Johns is obsessed-it is a curious coincidence that his career as a painter started in 1952, the SOOthanniversary of Leonardo's birthexpressed the same amazement at the world's polymorphism: ÂŤIl mondo e pieno d'injinite ragioni che non furono mai in isperienza"-"The world is full of an infinity of causes which were never set forth in experience."

D About the Author: Robert Hughes is the regular art critic for Time, the weekly newsmagazine.

In August this year, the United Nations will hold a World Population Conference in Bucharest to evolve a common global demographic strategy. In this article, the author reviews the progress of family planning, with special reference to India. He feels that not enough is being done about what may be the best solution of all to the world's resources shortage: controlling the number of people who eat up those resources.

MISSING

THE BOAT

IN POPULATION POLICY

The doctor in the National Family Planning Institute's clinic in New Delhi took a badly printed Hindi pamphlet from out of the drawer. Written by a "virility-merchant" hakim, it was full of fantastic farragoes about sex. The promises made were equally fabulous.

In Lucknow once, the doctor told me, he'd dropped in 011 one of those "sex-specialists" out of curiosity and had a long discussion with him. The self-styled hakim had a thriving business and, thawed by the interest shown by a "fellow practitioner," he told the doctor his professional philosophy. In three words this was "Fool the public."

And the hakim was envious of the doctor because, he said, with his medical training and pseudo-scientific jargon, the doctor could do the fooling so much more convincingly.

Thousands of trusting people go to these quacks who advertise everywhere. And it's against this background of ignorance, entrenched beliefs and false hopes that Asia's family planning effort will have to be set.

All over South Asia the signs are clear.

I see Calcutta's Chittaranjan Avenue during the evening jam. Disorderly traffic, horns full blast, the whole broad road choked with buses, trucks and cars. I see metropolitan Manila at nine in the morning, the office-bound cars Itnd jeepneys fighting for the road. And T think-growth rate 2 Various media have been used to spread the message of family planning in India. Above left: A boat on the lake in Naini Tal displays the now familiar poster. At le}t. a worker eulogizes the virtues of a planned(amily to villqg,ers.

per cent (that's South Korea), growth rate 2.3 per cent (that's Sri Lanka)-the populations will double in 35 years or 30. India's growth rate is around 2.5 per cent. In 30 years what will be the decibel count of noise in Delhi's Faiz Bazar, or the composition of the smog in Bombay? What will population, poverty and the assault of pollution make of the quality of our life?

Places for me often mean faces and figures.

Fisher folk near beached catamarans and boats on the Madras Marina-what do they look like? Young children scrabbling to porter shopping at Delhi's INA Market-are they underfed? The mother with three children who came to be fitted with a loop because her husband wouldn't hear of sterilization even though her three children were rickety and one could scarcely stand. Beggars crowding round a tourist coach near Bombay's Nariman Point, at Dacca airport, and occasional importuners now even on Bangalore's Mahatma Gandhi Road-what kind of clothes do they wear? Egmore Station in Madras before dawn; waiting for the light to break before sallying out into the city, I watch the homeless ones sleeping on the floor-families, mothers with suckling babies, old men, younger ones. As before I wonder, why so many with gray hair, don't the people look older and more pinched than they should at their age? Why so many aimless, sleeping and sitting figures mottling the station floor?

We have so many people, a great variety no doubt, but how do we put them all to use?

Last November the Indian Government restored some of the funds it had cut from its birth control programs for

'Right now the whole world seems bored with Family Planning. Can the world afford the luxury of such boredom?'

1973-74. But even with the restoration, the total amount still remains lower than the birth control funds allotted to the Ministry of Family Planning in the previous budget year. The Government has now sanctioned about Rs. 54 crores for birth control programs in 1973-74. This is more than the Government's original allocation, but about Rs. 23 crores less than the previous year's allocation.

In spite of the restoration of funds, there still seems to be a growing boredom about birth control and family planning in India-as indeed there is in much of the world.

When yet one more documentary flickers on to the screen, there's a moan. Not silent either. Yet another anodyne program notched up on AIR's periodic records leaves all but the compilers of AIR's statistics yawning. The billboards? Successful, in that one looks to spot the latest variation of Do Ya Teen Bus, Chhota Parivar Sukhi Parivar or Dusra Bachcha Abhi Nahin, Teesra Bachcha Kabhi Nahin -which is perhaps somewhat unrealistic because, with the prevailing rate of infant mortality, three is a safer figure.

At the same time there are devoted doctors and paramedics slogging away patiently in towns and villages trying to coax more practice (now around 12 per cent) from a 75 per cent aware people. Their effort will be badly hit by the current financial crisis. At the moment all the services at the family planning clinics are free. Primovalar, for instance, the best estrogen-progestin combined pill is given away free though it costs Rs. 5.50 for the month's 28 tablets. How long can that continue? As it is, too much is being spent on "compensations"-paying people to have a vasectomy or tubectomy. In 1972-73, Rs. 22 crores was paid out on this. If used to improve the earnings of the grass roots family planning worker the results would be much better.

Every year in India the family planning program loses 20 per cent to 30 per cent of its trained workers, partly because the pay is low.

Although a scattering of reports show that there's more acceptance of family planning if the mass media are active, there's a lot of hocus-pocus in the research. How big was the sample? Wasn't interpersonal communication the best? Do we begin early enough in children's lives and are we convincing enough in our communication methods? The population story, though it engages all the human aspects of life from birth to death, isn't an area where many media people feel comfortable. They are frightened by the new jargon and new functions. The best propagandist for the family planning message is still the satisfied acceptor and since the family planning effort started in earnest only in 1965 there isn't a great deal of evidence and feedback.

We are still at a superficial level. Over much of Asia, where the labor-force will grow from 780 million in 1965 to 1,000 million in 1980, there was an initial spurt in birth control and then a comfortable slackening back into the groove of growth.

Technology and research are ticking over very slowly just now with only tiny advances in the design, perfecting

and testing of new methods. There are experiments with prostaglandins-monthly, three-monthly, and six-monthly and even, perhaps, the five-year injection on which work is going on in the United States. There are experiments with implants, IUDs redesigned or with additives, new vasectomy and tubectomy techniques, laparoscopic sterilizations and so on. The promise of prostaglandins, not only for birth control but for several fell diseases, was fully described in SPAN's November 1972 number ["Putting the Cell's Own Messengers to Work," by Gene Bylinsky]. Indian experts are still undazzled by the effusive praises for prostaglandins and are waiting to be convinced that their side effects are negligible. Aside from the cheap oral pill produced in 1968 no new breakthrough is yet in sight that would be safe, easy, esthetic and cheap. The "pharmaceutical revolution" hauled down the death rate, and so the birth rate rules alone. Can we say much more than that living in a stimulating society promotes birth control?¡ When we talk proudly of India and other South Asian countries as being "young nations," having a lot of young people and therefore dynamic, we are slurring over some demographic realities. The "juvenation" of the population that is taking place in many developing countries is ominous.

With an over-all growth rate of, say, X per cent, the younger age-groups in that population soon begin to increase proportionately by more than X per cent. Speedily the point is being reached where 40 per cent or so of the population is in the "young dependent" age. And since people are now living longer, the number of older dependents is also growing. Briefly, the dependency ratio-the relationship between those who can work and produce and those who can'tgrows steadily adverse in underdeveloped countries.

The new population, the flood of newcomers, eat even less well. The diet steadily worsens and the likelihood of brain damage from malnutrition is more, instead of less, than before. Then, there's the despondency brought about by the long braking distance that population takes. Even if, for argument's sake, the birth rate can be winched down to target figures (and the Fourth Five-Year Plan target of reducing the birth rate to 32 per thousand hasn't succeeded, it's nearer 38 per thousand now), the population will go on increasing by large absolute numbers for a long time (more than a generation, often much more). So the absolute number of children to be fed and clothed, young people to be found work, and people of all ages to be serviced in a hundred ways keep on rising. The supply of available assets to parcel out among the new generation is beginning to run out.

Meanwhile, throughout the world, Family Planning has joined the Establishment. There's more international money in it than in almost anything else except preparing for war.

At the Mass Communications Institute of the University of the Philippines there are so many people doing research on some aspect or other of family planning that other research is rare. It's the same at the East-West Communication Institute in Hawaii. Grants are to be had for the asking in Family

Planning. Being part of the Establishment means that the policymakers are solid, wooden and impervious to new ideas.

The search for miracle drugs or methods goes on in many laboratories in the world. In India, too, there are at least eight centers where good work is going on. At the Central Drug Research Institute [see SPAN October 1968] in Lucknow, for instance; at Delhi University under a wellknown reproductive biologist; at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi; at the Institute for Research in Reproduction in Bombay and so on.

In the U.S., the Upjohns Company alone will be spending Rs. 240 million in research on prostaglandins.

Funds of that order are just not available in India. Since the U.S. Agency for International Development's operations in India have been wound up, its considerable help in Indian family planning has also tapered off [see box on this page]. The Ford Foundation has given valuable initial help to almost all the institutions in India that are in family planning research or programs. Even now Ford Foundation helps to keep intellectual exchange kindled by providing reprints of important papers and documents from all over the world.

The affluent world is greatly concerned at the growth in numbers that threatens even the "off limits" areas like Australia and Europe with their spiky immigration laws.

The quality of life in the richer countries is in danger.

The rub is in the word policy. A population policy for most people, including the policymakers, usually signifies a clinical effort to prevent birth. And here, perhaps as much as anywhere, is where we are missing the boat. A population policy should mean so very much more than a clinical effort. It should be a policy about education, employment, ecology, about the status of women and their opportunities, about instilling confidence in society that progress is possible and desirable. Population policy also touches and is affected by tax law, the law of inheritance, subsidies and allowances, social service allocations, the urban-rural balance of development and a hundred other areas of economic, fiscal and social policy. Different groups of the population grow at different rates.

Since India's Independence, the total amount of American aid to Indian family planning programs exceeds Rs. 30 crores in grants. This includes: • A grant of Rs. 6 crores and a dollar loan of $2. 7 million (Rs. 2 crores), for manufacturing more than 6,000 vehicles to increase the mobility of family planning tea:ns, especially in rural areas.

• Rupee grants (from PL-480 rupee funds) totaling Rs. 8.5 crores for expanding experimental and innovative family planning activities.

• A grant of $20 million (Rs. 15 crores) in foreign exchange in 1970 to help finance an expanded family plan-

A clinical policy covers very little of these facets. Even steps like the legalization of abortion have little meaning without a proper base. In preventive medicine circles a well-known axiom is: "A minimum standard of health care is essential for family planning." Abortions are dangerous if not done under proper supervision, but about 50 per cent of Indian women seeking abortions still go to unauthorized people-and have often to entreat the legitimate abortionists to accept them after they've been messed around with.

The loop in India had its moment of glory. In the years 1965 to 1967 the cry among women was "Nothing but the loop." By 1968 it had turned to "Anything but the loop" because of the bleeding and other side effects. This was unfair to the loop which was a most effective instrument of birth control and, with the Copper T, is still the best check known save for the pill. Selectively used, the loop is a very good contraceptive and slowly it is beginning once again to be recognized as such.

Demographer friends and journalists in Asia tell me there's an overreaction to the prediction's and promises about doom and chaos. "Standing Room Only" which all the international-development and third-world-development people have been talking about doesn't seem to have come upon us yet. What will happen in 30 years or 35? Well, that's a long time away and isn't knowledge and technology growing "exponentially" (a term the experts love to use)?

Maybe there are more Green Revolution miracles up the sleeves of boffins. Maybe birth control miracles in the next 10 years will save us. Right now the whole world seems bored with Family Planning. Can the world afford the luxury of such boredom?

0

About the Author: Chanchal Sarkar, a syndicated columnist, has been Director of the Press Institute of India since it was established in 1963. His articles have appeared in a wide variety of papers and periodicals in India and abroad, and his books include The Changing Press and Window on Asia. He was educated at Presidency College, Calcutta, and Clare College, Cambridge University, and was a Nieman Fellow at Harvard University in 1960-61.

ning program during the Fourth Five-Year Plan.

• A grant of Rs. 2.25 crores has provided 170 million condoms to support the Nirodh program, launched in 1968.

• Technical assistance extended to the International Institute of Population Studies (formerly the Demographic Training and Research Center-See SPAN June 1970) in Bombay to help this institution expand its activities.

• Finally, of course, the recent Indo-U.S. rupee settlement provides for Rs. 105 crores of the total Rs. 1,664 crores granted to India to be designated for family planning.

THE REAl VillaiN IN HEART DISEASE

i hat causes heart attacks? A host of reasons have been cited by doctors in the past-heredity,

weight, nsion, smoking, lack of exercise, coffee-drinking. Today, medical opinion is veering round to the view at the number one cause may be high blood cholesterol. And the best way to lower the cholesterol vel, alas, is to cut down on such goodies as ice cream, eggs, butter, pastries, and rich layer cake.

The first thing you notice in Dr. Campbell oses's office is that picture on the wall. It ows photographs of eight tubes, like secns of white rubber hose, cut open and etched out so you can see the inside. The e on the left has a clear, smooth inner surceoThe second contains a few barely disrnible streaks. In the third, you see a sprin'ng of tiny, inconspicuous white lumps, oking like so many seed pearls set into the 'ng. Each successive tube has more and ger growths; by number five they begin to ke on a pinkish tinge and the terrain is growg progressively rougher. Number eight looks e a crater-strewn landscape, with angry d protrusions covering much of the surface. ee illustration on page 36.]

The tubes are sections of human aortae large artery that curves out of the top of e heart and plunges down through the chest d abdomen, supplying blood to most of the dy. The specimens, which were removed autopsies, progress from the completely althy one at left to the one almost consumed atherosclerosis-hardening of the arteries at right. Dr. Moses is medical director of e American Heart Association (AHA), and e picture in his office dramatizes the stealthy tion of America's No. 1 killer. The full

story, however, is in the statistics: • Cardiovascular disease will kill a million Americans a year-54 per cent of all deaths. • 675,000 wili die from heart attacks, 176,000 of them under 65. These are "premature" heart attacks; their victims are primarily men at the peak of their productivity.

These facts are well known. Not so widely appreciated, however, is the fact that we know how to stop much of the dreadful toll. "Perhaps we can't prevent heart attacks completely," says Dr. Moses, "But we could push most of them back into the 80s and 90s instead of having people struck down in the prime of life. Most people would consider that quite an improvement."

Moses's optimistic statement doesn't mean that victory is complete. There are still gaps and tangled threads in the cloth of evidence.

But for the first time, the bulk of informed scientific opinion has swung, with an almost audible click, into something like agreement.

During the past three years, most of the country's principal scientific and public health agencies have reached the conclusion that premature heart disease-at least a good part of it-can be prevented.

Finding the answers wasn't easy. Suspected at one time or another of being the principal

villain behind the heart-attack epidemic were such diverse items as fat, cholesterol and sugar in the diet, lack of certain vitamins and trace minerals in food and water, excessive coffee drinking, overweight, high blood pressure, diabetes, stress, personality, a sedentary life, body build, cigarette smoking, even soft water.

One study even correlates the heart attack rate with lack of regular church attendance, another with too much sleep and a third with ownership of radio and TV.

The Problem Heart disease comes in many forms. The heart muscle itself can simply fail or become infected. Valves that regulate the flow of blood in and out of the heart can leak or refuse to close when they should. The timing mechanism that keeps the beat of life going can become erratic and slow down or it can speed up to a dangerously fast pace. But the great killer-the one behind what we call heart attack-is atherosclerosis.

The beginnings of atherosclerosis, one of a family of blood-vessel diseases called arteriosclerosis, are still mysterious. When children go off mother's milk and onto cow's milk, they develop what investigators call fatty streaks-long, yellowish markings-on the

Studies have revealed a remarkable fact. The richer the country, the more likely it is to have a high rate of coronary disease. Even within a country the relationship between wealth and heart attacks holds. inner linings of their arteries. Fatty streaks in early life are not important and usually disappear. But there is evidence that in some people fatty substances such as cholesterol are deposited in the fatty streaks, and in later life can produce damage to the arteries. Gradually, the lining of the arteries becomes heavy and irregular, and displays thick deposits called "plaques." This whole process severely restricts blood flow through the artery, and the roughened spots can break loose, cause rupture by weakening the blood-vessel's walls, or provide ideal spots for the formation of blood clots that choke off blood flow entirely.

It can happen in any artery, but it is most common in the large and middle-sized arteries in the body-in the brain, the kidneys, the aorta, the legs. When blood circulation is cut off or an artery breaks in the brain, the result is called a stroke. But the damage takes its greatest toll when it affects the arteries of the heart-the group of three, I 27-mm-long, soda-straw-sized blood vessels that sit atop the heart and wrap around it like a crown (hence their name: the coronaries).

The process of arterial injuries, or lesions, is slow, probably taking 20 to 40 years on the average. Most Americans have moderately severe atherosclerosis by the time they reach 50.

For many years, hardening of the arteries was thought to accompany only old age.Then, in the Korean war, came a stunning discovery: A team of doctors performing autopsies on young soldiers killed in battle found that nearly eight out of 10, most of them in their late teens and early 20s, had appreciable coronary atherosclerosis. As the realization grew that the disease was not restricted to the aged, many investigators began to examine their other preconceptions about the disease. Main question: Was atherosclerosis really an inevitable process-or could it be a preventable disease?

The Disease of Affluence Studies of the world's population have revealed a remarkable fact: The richer the country, the more likely it is to have a high rate of coronary heart disease. A study in England a few years ago showed that even within a country the relationship between wealth and heart disease holds; in fact, the single facet of that affluent society that correlates best with the heart-attack rate is the number of radio and

TV sets in a home. Nobody seriously believes that radio and TV sets bring on heart disease. Rather, the blame must lie with a host of changes in lifestyle that accompany the acquisition of these material wants. But what elements are responsible, and might be changed to prevent the disease? In the history of the growing awareness that heart attack is associated with certain traits and habits characteristic of an affluent civilization, there stands out one great scientific landmark-the Framingham study.

Framingham, Massachusetts, is a gray factory town surrounded by pleasant suburbs 34 kilometers from Boston. As a town whose 28,000 residents in 1949 were ethnically and sociologically representative of the American population, it was a logical candidate for the Heart Disease Epidemiology Study of the National Heart Institute. Two and a half decades ago, more than 5,000 healthy men and women between the ages of 30 and 59 and free of any sign of heart disease were selected for the experiment in Framingham. In the 23 years since, each subject has come in for biennial examinations. During the course of the experiment, some 900 subjects have died.

And from these deaths have come a series of scientific facts where only general impressions and suspicions had existed before.

The 'Risk Factors' The study's overwhelming accomplishment was the identification of a series of "risk factors." It proved that men have more and earlier heart attacks than women, and that people who have high levels of cholesterol in the blood, high blood pressure, diabetes, electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities or low vital capacity (the amount of air that can be expelled from the lungs), who smoke cigarettes or have parents and grandparents with heart problems are more likely to have heart attacks than those with none of these factors.

And the more factors, the higher the risk.

The study put numbers on the risk factors.

For example, cholesterol in the vicinity of 250 milligrams per 100 milliliters of blood had been considered perfectly normal; yet the study showed that a man with 240 had three times the risk of a heart attack of a man below 200. An individual with a systolic (pumping) blood pressure of 160 was four times as likely to have heart trouble as one below 120; if he had an abnormal ECG, his risk was two and

a half times as great, and low vital capacity or cigarette smoking made him twice as likely a candidate for trouble. Surprisingly, being overweight was not particularly importantunless it was extreme, or connected with other risk factors. The study showed that a combination of risk factors increases the danger enormously. For example, men with moderately high cholesterol levels, moderately high blood pressure and certain ECG abnormalities are 23 times more likely to have a heart attack than those with none of these factors.

An important element to recognize about the Framingham study, and others since then, is that it demonstrated a clear statistical association between heart disease and a number of factors. But statistical association doesn't prove cause and effect. For example, cigarettes and heart disease are associated statistically. But one can either assume that the cigarettes cause the heart trouble, or that something that makes individuals susceptible to a heart problem also makes them more likely to smoke. Either hypothesis, in the absence of additional evidence, is equally good. The same reasoning applied to the other Framingham risk factors. The real question became: Will changing the risk factors help to prevent heart disease? Some of the answers were surprising -and not hard to establish.

(1) Diabetes: Study after study gave the same result: Controlling diabetes does not lower the risk of heart attack. But the point is moot; treating diabetes does clearly lower a patient's chances of dying from a variety of other ailments. So there is no question that diabetes should be treated vigorously.

(2) High blood pressure: Same situation.

Lowering blood pressure does not reduce the heart attack risk. But it dramatically lowers the probability of death from heart failure and stroke.

(3) Overweight: Actuarial tables drawn up by insurance companies have shown that obese people die earlier from a variety of diseases-including heart problems-than those whose weight is normal. The Framingham study, by contrast, showed that moderate obesity-1O to 20 per cent over ideal weightdid not seem to be directly connected with heart attacks, unless the subject also had high levels of blood cholesterol, in which case his risk was far higher than that of a normal subject with the same cholesterol level. Somehow, the two worked together. So there has never

been much argument that being thin is better than being fat, and probably gives some protection from heart disease.

(4) Sex, heredity, vital capacity, ECG abnormalities: Nothing you can do about these anyway, so no chance for reducing risk here.

(5) Cigarette smoking: There was still some argument until about the time of the U.S. Surgeon General's report on smoking and health in 1964. But since that time, despite a few holes in the evidence and the best efforts of the Tobacco Institute, the implication of cigarettes as a causative factor in heart disease has been almost completely accepted by the scientific establishment.

Heavy cigarette smokers are more than three times as likely to die from a heart attack as nonsmokers; when they quit, their death rate declines almost immediately. It continues to decline slowly for at least 10 years, although even then it is somewhat above those who have never smoked.

(6) Blood cholesterol: This is the one all the fighting has been about. Many investigators have conclusively demonstrated that the level of blood cholesterol can be reduced by diet. But does lowering the serum (blood) cholesterol reduce the risk of heart attack?

Should Americans ease off on the products they like so well and consume in such enormous quantities-thick, well-marbled steaks, prime rib roast, ham, leg of lamb, ice cream, scrambled eggs and bacon, cheese, chocolate bars, rich, butter-filled baked goods-and turn instead to veal, chicken, fish and low-fat milk, in an effort to protect themselves from the great scourge?

Diet-The

Crux of the Matter

In a way, the diet-heart argument deserves the central place it has received. While research has not resolved the prevention question to the satisfaction of everyone, it is clear that high blood or serum cholesterol is the central risk factor. And diet is central to serum cholesterol levels. In countries where the general level of serum lipids-blood fats-is low and the heart-attack rate a fraction of that seen in the United States (Chile, Japan, Italy and Greece, for example), other risk factors such as overweight and cigarette smoking are far less potent; in fact, some of them cannot be correlated with the probability of heart attack at all. Conversely, there is evidence from many countries that the individual with a low serum cholesterol reading is virtually immune to a heart attack.

But is cholesterol in the blood causing those clogged arteries? Or is some basic process, as yet not understood, causing both the accumu-

lation of cholesterol in the artery walls-the atherosclerosis-and the high blood levels?

And the other logical question: Will reducing the level of serum cholesterol help prevent heart attacks, or is that simply treating a symptom and not the disease?

Cholesterol is a white, odorless, tasteless, nearly ubiquitous fatty alcohol found principally in eggs, meats (especially organ meats) butterfat, shellfish (in moderate amounts), and practically all foods except vegetables. It is also manufactured in the body, primarily by the liver, and is essential for life. Cholesterol is used by the body, for example, to make hormones and bile acids, which play an important part in digestion.

Two substances in the diet largely control the circulating blood cholesterol level. One is dietary cholesterol. The more you eat of such foods as eggs and sweetbreads and, to a lesser extent, clams, scallops and oysters, the higher the cholesterol in the blood serum. Even more important in influencing the serum cholesterol are dietary fats. Saturated fats, the kind usually solid at room temperature, make serum cholesterol rise; foods such as butter, cheese, beef, pork, lamb and chocolate are high in saturated fats. Unsaturated fats tend to make serum cholesterol go down; they are usually liquid at room temperature and include corn, cottonseed, safflower and other vegetable oils.

(An important exception is coconut oil, which, though a liquid, is one of the most saturated fats in existence. And there is a third, inbetween category, such mono-saturated fats as olive and peanut oil, which neither raise nor lower cholesterol level.)

Researchers have for years suspected that diet is involved in atherosclerosis, simply because arterial plaque is made up largely of cholesterol. But the evidence was only circumstantial, and a good argument could be made that the cholesterol in the plaques was manufactured by the cells in the artery walls and had little to do with the sUji)ply circulating in the blood stream. In fact, how cholesterol is deposited in the artery walls is still one of the most mysterious aspects of the problem.

By the early 1960s, the medical profession had taken the position that the diet-heart theory was interesting, but unproven. Many thought it might be a good idea to change the diets of high-risk patients-those with multiple risk factors, for example, and those who had already survived one or more heart attacks. Nevertheless, when it came to making recommendations to the public at large, most of them balked. For one thing, nobody was sure-really sure-that it would do any good. continued on page 37

AMERICAN CARDIOLOGISTS IN INDIA Evidence of the growing attention that the international medical community is paying to heart disease was the visit to India late last year of four eminent American cardiologists. The doctors were on a world-wide study tour of cardiovascular disease, sponsored by the U.S. State Department.

In this country, their visit was co-sponsored by the All-India Heart Foundation.

The American team was headed by Dr. Henry D. McIntosh, President of the American College of Cardiology.

Other members were: Dr. Paul Allen Ebert, Professor of Cardiac Surgery at Cornell University Medical College; Dr. Dan Goodrich McNamara, Director of Pediatric Cardiology at Texas Children's Hospital; and Dr. Richard L. Popp, Assistant Professor of Medicine at the Stanford University School of Medicine.

In a series of meetings in New Delhi and Bombay, the U.S. specialists exchanged notes with their Indian counterparts and discussed the latest developments in cardiac research. One significant difference they noted is that in the affluent nations the major causative factor in heart attacks is atherosclerosis. The other major cause, rheumatic heart fever, has been largely brought under control. In the developing countries, however, rheumatic heart disease accounts for fully half the num ber of heart cases.

An intensive study of rheumatic heart disease is being conducted

by Dr. S. Padmavati, President of the All-India Heart Foundation.

One finding of her research, which is financed by the U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, is that between 10 and 12 Indian schoolchildren in every 1,000 show evidence of rheumatic heart disease. The U.S. Government is also assisting the T ndian Council of Medical Research in conducting four cardiac research projects with grants totaling more than Rs. 2 crores.

Studies such as these will help bring about a greater understanding of heart disease, now fast becoming the world's No.1 kiHer. Dr. Padmavati cited the need for international co-operation and for a pooling oftechnology and resources. She agreed with Dr. McIntosh that "medicine knows no geographical boundaries."

'There is even some evidence that a change of diet can actually reverse the progress of atherosclerosis.'

When atherosclerotic monkeys were fed a low-fat diet, it was found that 'the plaques actually regressed.'

Second, nobody could be absolutely certain that changing the basic American diet would not be harmful to some people. And third, encouraging a large-scale switch of dietary habits might wreck whole segments of the food industry, for example, the meat, egg and dairy producers.

success. The men did stick to the diet for the planned two years, and their average serum cholesterol readings dropped by about 10 per cent. In addition, the low-fat group had only about half as many heart attacks as the control group. Doctors were quick to point out that the number .of subjects was too small and the time too short for any firm concluDream Study sions. Moreover, many men had become inThere was a way to settle the problem: terested in preventing heart attacks and had Take two large groups of people and let one lost weight, stopped smoking and taken other continue to eat the super-rich typical Amer- steps that were perhaps good for them but ican diet for 10 years or so, while the other made the apparent improvement in heartchanges to a low-saturated-fat, low-choles- attack rate meaningless. terol schedule. If Group II has substantially In recent years there is even some evidence fewer heart attacks and other complications -tenuous at this point-that a change of diet of atherosclerosis, the point will be proved can actually reverse the progress of atherobeyond a doubt. Thus, more than a decade sclerosis to some extent. Dr. William E. ago, many researchers began calling for a 10- Conner of the University of Iowa College of year, $100-million national study of 100,000 Medicine, for example, fed monkeys a highpeople to settle the matter once and for all. fat diet and they all developed atheroscleroThe National Heart Institute came up with sis. Then he switched them to a low-fat diet. $750,000 for a feasibility study in the early Periodically, his team did autopsies, and 1960s.Half of 1,500 men who were selected in found that not only did the growth of athfive cities ate a diet especially prepared by erosclerotic plaque stop, but the plaques food processors for the experiment. They ate actually regressed. ice cream containing vegetable fat, for examThis may happen in human patients. ple, rather than the usual butter-fat; steaks Drs. Donald S. Frederickson and Robert 1. were special lean, tenderized cuts; cakes and Levy of the National Heart and Lung Instipies were made with unsaturated fats and no tute (NHLI) were studying a group of paegg yolks. The other subjects ate an appar- tients with extremely high blood lipids ently identical diet, but it was closer to the (cholesterol, triglycerides and other fats), a typical American fare in saturated fats and disease which causes peripheral vascular procholesterol. No one knew until the experiment blems-a clogging of the arteries in the arms was over which diet he had been on. And, of and legs with atherosclerosis. When the pacourse, all 1,500 men were free to live their tients were put on a strict diet and treated liveswithout any restrictions other than those with a serum-lipid lowering drug called on their diets. clofibrate, not only did their serum-lipid The purpose of the study was not to see if levels drop, but the circulation in their arms the so-called "prudent" diet would prevent and legs-far easier to check than coronary heart attacks, but rather to see if (1) it would circulation-improved dramatically, indicatlower serum cholesterol in those who were on ing that the atherosclerotic plaques had beit, and (2) whether the experimental group come smaller. would stick to the diet. If those two questions A number of other studies have tended to were answered affirmatively, then it would show the beneficial results from lowering be possible to go ahead with a mammoth serum cholesterol Yet they still don't furnish lOO,OOO-person, five- to 1O-year study. the kind of conclusive, ironclad proof most The Diet-Heart Feasibility Study was a practitioners would like to have. Diet seems to lower serum cholesterol effectively for most-but not all-people.

Why? What Opposite page: Cross section photofJraphs about cholesterol-lowering drugs?

Sometimes off our coronary arteries show near normal they work and sometimes they don't.

Why? one(top left}, two arteries increasingly And the epidemiological evidence isn't quite choked by atherosclerotic plaques (top as firm as it sounds. Members of the Masai right, bottom left), and the totally occluded artery of an attack victim (bottom right). tribe in Africa, for example, live on milk and

blood, a diet hideously high in saturated fat. The Samburu people of northern Kenya eat milk and meat. Yet both tribes have extremely low levels of serum cholesterol and heart trouble is virtually unkno~n. Some researchers theorize that their active, outdoor life offsets the effects of diet, others have shown they have a hereditary ability to handle fats in the diet without increasing blood levels of cholesterol. But no' one really knows the answer. The Japanese eat few fats and have few heart attacks. Yet their blood-pressure and stroke rate is high. Both strokes and heart attacks come from atherosclerosis. So how can you have one without the other? And how does diet fit the picture?

A Wonder Drug?

As most of the public attention in the heart controversy focused on diet, other researchers worked on serum cholesterol lowering drugs to see if they could affect the heart-attack rate.

In one experiment, half of a group of 1,400 United Airlines ground personnel each day took pills containing clofibrate, while the other half were given placebos. During the five years of the study, Dr. Louis Krasno of San Francisco reported, the heart-attack rate for the older men on the drug was 1.89 per 1,000 per year vs. 6.6 per 1,000 without the drug-three and a half times higher. In the young men the results were even more striking-0.64 versus five, indicating that the unprotected group had almost eight times as many heart attacks.

Other drugs have been tried, too, and have shown that they can reduce serum cholesterol, sometimes by large amounts. A combination of drugs and diet is effective in many cases, and some doctors look forward to the time when practically everybody with a serum cholesterol of more than 200 might be put on a combination diet-drug regime to drop the level below this apparently magic number.

As work has progressed over the years, it has become increasingly clear that that definitive 100,000-patient diet-heart study that researchers have been calling for isn't going to happen. First of all, the money isn't in sight. And second, the data showing that something can be done about preventing heart attacks are reaching the point where many doctors feel such a study would border on the unethical. "We're not going to take thousands of 20- or 30-year-olds and follow them

'A heart attack may be as good a way to die as any,' says cardiologist Dr. Campbell Moses. 'And I would be very happy to see the heart-attack rate rise to 100 per cent, so long as it happened at age 95.' for years, not changing their cigarette habits, not controlling their high blood pressure, not controlling their general environment, just changing their cholesterol levels to see what happens," says Dr. Moses. Others who have no ethical reservations are beginning to think the program wouldn't work anyway. So much attention has been given to the risk factors that some slight changes are occurring in living patterns and the change may speed up somewhat in coming years. So it is at least possible that we could spend all the time and money and at the end still not be absolutely sure that diet did it.

Drs. Frederickson and Levy of the NHLI are just beginning a study of 250 hyperlipoproteinemics-patients with an inherited predisposition toward extremely high levels of serum cholesterol and other blood fats.

Without treatment, most of these victims would die of heart attack at a very early agemany before 30. During the study, they'll all go on strict diets; one-half will also receive drug treatment, but the other half will not.

At the beginning and end of the study, all the subjects will go through a process called angiography, in which physicians use a complex X-ray technique to actually view the blood flowin~ through the coronary arteries and gauge the degree of obstruction of each.

When the test is over, the results will be analyzed to see if those who received the drug had significantly lower serum cholesterol levels(previous experiments indicate the levels should run 20 to 30 per cent lower) and if so, whether their artery disease progressed at any slower rate than those with higher cholesterol levels, stopped progressing altogether, or perhaps even regressed.

Because of the severe nature of the disease seen in these patients, the usual progress of atherosclerosis is, in the absence of treatment, speeded up enormously. So statistically valid results, showing whether the treatment is doing anything to prevent heart attacks, should be available within three years.

The Personality Variable As the great diet-heart debate moved ponderously toward a final answer, research progressed quietly in other areas. For many years, for example, it was an article of faith among laymen that heart attacks happened mostly to tense, high-powered, hard-driving executives whose life-style and personality

somehow contributed to their fate. Recent research casts doubt on the supposed connection. Dr. Lawrence E. Hinkle of Cornell University Medical College spent five years studying 270,000 men working in various jobs for the Bell Telephone Company in the United States. The results showed the highest incidence of heart disease among foremen and workers such as linemen, repairers, and installers. In direct opposition to conventional wisdom, the higher on the executive ladder he climbed, the less became a man's chances of heart attack.

Two investigators who believe that stress does count are Drs. Meyer Friedman and Ray H. Rosenman of the Harold Brunn Institute of Mount Zion Hospital in San Francisco.

The two men looked at their patients' habits and personalities closely, and gradually came to the conclusion that most fall into one of two classes. One group that they dubbed Type A's are aggressive, competitive, ambitious, obsessed with a profound sense of time urgency. They walk and talk rapidly, and are men who "get things done." Type B may also be a man of considerable accomplishment, but he seems to be less driven by the pressures of time.

In 1960, Drs. Rosenman and Friedman selected 3,500 men with no sign of heart disease, classified them as Type A or B, and began giving them careful annual examinations. So far, 257 have developed coronary heart disease. The type A's suffered two and a half times as many heart attacks as the type B's. They also ran higher serum cholesterol readings as a rule, but Rosenman and Friedman, after analyzing their data, have concluded that Type A's have a higher risk of heart attack than can be accounted for by cholesterol readings or any of the other conventional risk factors. Thus, they conclude, a Type A personality is itself a risk factor.

Ten years ago, almost nobody but Drs. Friedman and Rosenman believed that stress was involved in heart attacks. Now the professionals are not so sure. Many think the evidence is growing too strong to ignore.

Other Possible Villains Hundreds of thousands of joggers fill the sidewalks, highways and gymnasiums of America, running in place is a national pastime, health clubs have sprung up and prospered across the country. Does it do any

good? There is some evidence that it may.

Regular exercise has certain measurable physiological effects. It lowers pulse rate, increases vital capacity, causes the heart to pump more blood with every stroke, probably promotes increased vascularization-growth of a better network of blood vessels. Consistent exercise also tends to lower weight somewhat.

Thus, the Task Force on Arteriosclerosis appointed by the NHLI concluded that the evidence was too incomplete and inconclusive to advocate a national program aimed at increasing the general level of physical activity for the purpose of preventing heart attacks.

Yet many experts are loath to believe that an individual in good shape doesn't have some advantage over the individual who isn't.

"We're all pro-exercise here, despite the fact that the evidence isn't overwhelming," says Dr. Frederickson of NHLI. If the case for exercise must be judged unproven, the cases implicating a host of other suspects that have been indicted are even more tenuous. For example, Dr. E. Cuyler Hammond of the American Cancer Society, who followed some 800,000 men and women for six years starting in 1960, found, to nobody's great surprise, a correlation between death from heart attack on the one hand and heavy cigarette smoking, lack of exercise, overweight and high blood pressure on the other. But he made a completely unexpected finding, too: The death rate from arteriosclerotic disease (mainly stroke) was almost twice as high for men and women between 60 and 79 who slept 10 or more hours a night as from those who slept 7. The conclusion of most experts: Interesting, but inconclusive.

A British investigator has presented data that suggests sugar consumption may be the real culprit behind heart disease, but most researchers cite the lack of laboratory proof and believe he is on the wrong track. Heavy coffee drinking-20 cups a day, for example -has also been associated with heart risk, but this case, too, is far from proven.

Another researcher, Dr. George W. Comstock of Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health may have uncovered the strangest clue of all. Choosing a county in Western Maryland, he sought to test the theory, which some studies tend to confirm, that people living in areas where they drink hard (high mineral-content) water have fewer

heart attacks than those who drink soft water.

He was unable to find any differences between those from hard- and soft-water areas. But in analyzing the details from the socioeconomic questionnaires, he found that men who did not go to church regularly were twice as likely to have a heart attack as those who went once a week or more. Nobody is willing to call this anything but clear coincidence.

The Bandwagon Most researchers now accept as a working hypothesis that the prime causative factor in heart disease is high serum cholesterol. Jumping on the bandwagon early was the powerful American Heart Association, which in 1961 came out in favor of a cholesterol-lowering diet for high-risk patients, and in 1965 recommended that all Americans cut down on saturated fats and cholesterol, and adapt the "prudent diet." The AHA position was hardly more popular with the medical profession than ants at a picnic. Cardiologists tend to be conservative. "They deal with a disease that kills unexpectedly; that makes them conservative," says Dr. Campbell Moses of the AHA. They weren't convinced that diet would do any good for the general population, or that it did not contain hidden hazards that would show up only after years of use, after the damage had been done. And there were holes in the theory.

One by one the great scientific organizations have been coming around to the conclusion that efforts to combat heart disease must begin with a better diet. The switch began over three years ago when the Intersociety Commission for Heart Disease Resources, a group of more than 100 of America's foremost heart experts came up with a sweeping set of recommendations, including a warning to the public to cut sharply the consumption of saturated fats and cholesterol. In June 1971,a Task Force on Arteriosclerosis of the NHLI came out squarely on the side of prevention: "It would appear prudent for the American people to follow a diet aimed at loweringserum lipid concentrations. For most individuals, this can be achieved by lowering the intake of calories, cholesterol and saturated fat."

One year later, in July 1972, came a thin but important report from two highly prestigious bodies that had been fighting among themselves for years over the dietheart controversy: the Council on Foods and Nutrition of the American Medical Association and the ultraconservative Food and Nutrition Board of the National Academy of

Sciences-National Research Council (which sets "minimum daily requirements" of all nutrients known to be necessary for human health.) "The evidence now available is sufficient to discourage further temporizing with this major national health problem," the joint report said. Then it went on to recommend that everyone with a plasma cholesterol level of 220 or above-which the board estimated includes two-thirds of the men and an unknown number of women-change their diets to bring the level down. That just about made it unanimous.

The emphasis is now switching to youth.

While a change of diet and modifying other risk factors will apparently help almost anyone, the younger the age, the more good it does. "The problem in my opinion is a pediatric problem," says Dr. Stephen Scheidt, a cardiologist at New York Hospital-Cornell Medical Center. Most of the professionals I talked to have already banned butter from their homes, switched the kids to low-fat milk, and severely cut consumption of steaks and roast beef in favor of fish, veal and chicken.

'Managerial'

Prevention

Can we stop heart attacks completely? It isn't possible, maybe not even desirable. "We know death rates are going to remain 100 per cent from living," says Dr. Moses. "A heart attack may be as good a way to die as any. And I would be very happy to see the heart attack rate rise to 100 per cent, so long as it happened at age 95." Finally, at the end of an incredibly long and complex search, we do know how to prevent many-perhaps most-premature heart attacks. The prescription is deceptively simple: (1) Have an annual physical that includes blood-pressure measurement, a blood-sugar test and a cholesterol assay. If any of the readings are high, bring them down immediately with diet and drugs, or by any necessary means.

(2) Maintain ideal weight, or something close to it.

(3) Do not smoke cigarettes.

(4) Get some regular exercise.

(5) Eliminate as much stress, tension and deadline-associated activity from your life as possible. If you must work in a stressful occupation, try to avoid combining high stress levels with inordinate fatigue.

Most doctors make little real effort to get their patients to follow preventive medical advice. They probably don't because they are fairly cynical about the effectiveness of such advice to their patients, although there

is no way to document such a claim. Says Dr. William B. Kannel, medical director of the Framingham study: "There is the patient who is a recognized coronary risk. His doctor tells him to watch his weight, go on a low-fat diet, stop cigarettes. And the patient says to himself that he could get that kind of advice from his mother-in-law. What he wants is a pill to counteract the effects of his bad habits."

The pill idea, for the moment, is fantasy, but it may not be for all time. If a really safe, effective drug could be developed for keeping serum cholesterol low, such an advance might indeed allow people to do whatever they liked and still be relatively immune to heart attack.

Other researchers have hypothesized that if we ever really learn what causes the blood clotting that brings on fatal heart attacks and strokes, we might be able to prevent themperhaps with a pill.

Organizations responsible for the nation's health, recognizing that most individuals will not take the necessary steps to cut their risk, are recommending so-called "managerial" prevention. The Intersociety Commission, for example, has called for an "orderly phasing out" of the cigarette industry, a major national program to detect and control high blood pressure, a program to breed cattle with a smaller percentage of fat to meat (an Australian team recently reported that it had sharply reduced the saturated-fat content of steaks by special feeding of the cattle) and a repeal of all laws that make it illegal to do such things as manufacture meat products containing polyunsaturated vegetable oils.

The task force of the NHLI recommended that America's food industry be persuaded to influence the composition of the American diet by all means possible. Great reductions in average intakes of saturated fats could be achieved, for example, if food processors switched to vegetable oils in the preparation of all snack foods, TV dinners and similar prepackaged items. One company is already test marketing a cholesterol-less egg product.

Nutritionists who have tried it tell me that scrambled eggs made from it are indistinguishable from the real thing.

Major changes in laws, habits and customs take time, and any large-scale reduction in the over-all heart-attack rate by Government fiat or industrial revolution will be years in the making. In the meantime, those who want to protect themselves and their families finally know what needs to be done.

0 About the Author: C.P. Gilmore, executive editor of Popular Science magazine, has won several awards for his articles on cardiological research.

WOODY ALLENUNNIEST COMEDIAN ALIVE TODAY? mericans have come to expect othing but the best from oody Allen, their favorite ovie anti-hero-and one of e funniest comedians alive oday. But now, they say, Allen as surpassed even his own uperlative standards. By 11accounts, Sleeper, the fourth . m he has directed, is his best o date-with Allen as Immaker, as actor, as writer.

In Sleeper, Allen plays the art of Miles Monroe, proprietor f the Happy Carrot Health ood Store. A clarinetist by vocation, Miles goes into ospital for an ulcer operation nd gets-in the words of the ~ lm-"a cosmic screwing." He s discovered 200 years later, ~rapped in aluminum foil and rozen stiff in a capsule. The ear is 2173, and the world now automated, regimented,

super-futuristic. The scientists who defrost Miles want to cherish him as a source of information on the past-they're just discovering individualism and are getting interested in Marxism. But within minutes the secret police are on the trail of the "alien." And the chase is on.

Initially disguised as a robot, Miles sets off in all directions, taking along with him as hostage a poetess who majored in cosmetics, sexual technique and, of course, poetry. On the run he performs incredible feats of derring-do, flying and swimming with all sorts of futuristic aids. He hides out in woods haunted by weird creatures-one, in fact, has "the body of a crab and the head of a social worker." Meanwhile, the cops bumble along, complete with backfiring space-age tools. In the end, after Miles has been rescued, he proceeds to execute some daring solo missions. He also reveals that being dead 200 years is just like spending a week-end in Beverly Hills.

This is the plot of the film.

But its hilarity, say the critics, lies in the sight gags and throwaway lines, "in the sparkling scattering of satiric wit ... as our hero stabs at the present and the future with the wonderfully lunatic sanity that is the hallmark of the true humorist."

Released late last year, Sleeper is generally considered

the finest comedy of 1973.

Americans are still referring to it in these terms without quibbling or hesitation-just with bellylaughs and guffaws.

AND NOW ...

THE FOUR-DAY WORKWEEK Every May since 1969, workers at Reader's Digest headquarters in Pleasantville, New York, have closed shop on Thursday evening, and taken off for a three-day week-end. "May was picked," says an official of the firm, "because it's a month when people could enjoy being outside. And the magazine does not increase the number of hours worked during the four days."

Though the Digest experiment started many years ago, it is limited to the month of May. Today the four-day workweek is a growing phenomenon among thousands of American companies-and it extends throughout the year. Since the number of working hours affects millions of Americans, the four-day workweek is being discussed in homes and offices all over the U.S. Innumerable variations on the shortened workweek have been tried-from a seven-hour, seven-day week followed by a week off, to a three-day, 36-hour week with four days off. One variation that several firms have tried is the use of a four-

day week in summer only.

Reactions to the four-day workweek vary. Some employers are pleased with higher productivity and decreased absenteeism.

Their workers enjoy the extra day off, using it for errands, shopping, travel or entertainment.

On the other hand, some companies have dropped the shortened workweek-their employees, they found, were totally exhausted after working the lO-hour to 12-hour day.

(These were companies which, unlike the Reader's Digest, did increase the length of the working day.)

In New York, the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association works a four-day week only in summer-from April 30 to August 31. And the Wales Manufacturing Company, a textile mill in Gastonia, North Carolina, has been operating on a three-day week since the autumn of 1972. The factory runs 24 hours a day, which means that employees are divided into four groups, each working 12 hours a day. Plant owner Lester Cutler says: "We don't have any problems with people getting tired ....

Our production has increased by 20 per cent and our employees' morale has been boosted."

In total agreement with him is Luke Shayden, president of the City Savings Bank in Pittsfield, Massachusetts. "If we tried to go back to five days," he says, "I think we'd lose half our staff."

ERICANS RETALKING

BOUli

CLEAN GAS AND OIL FROM COAL

FIRST AMERICAN MISS WORLD rn a country where beauty contests abound, the winners often attract no more than passing attention. But this is not so with Marjorie Wallace, Miss

World 1973, who is the first American to hold the title in the contest's 22-year history. The 19-year-old fashion model from rndianapolis plans to continue her career, and may accept a movie role. Above, Miss World adjusts her crown after winning the competition in London.

In the frantic search for new energy sources, Americans are gradually beginning to realize that their country has fantastic reserves of coal. The U.S. landmass contains some three trillion tons of coal which, even at a vastly accelerated American rate of consumption, would last for at least 200 to 300 years. Having once provided the bulk of U.S. energy, coal lost first place to oil in 1953, and went on to decline to less than 20 per cent of the market.

Now, however, there are indications that Americans are turning once again to their major energy reserve.

But the only way to significantly expand the use of coal today, most experts agree, is to develop more economic ways to convert coal to synthetic gas and oil. Only in this way can coal begin to meet the needs of an advanced industrial economy dependent for two-thirds of its energy on gaseous and liquid fuels.

The basic coal-conversion technologies have been around for half a century, but they were little developed in the U.S. because of the abundant availability of the cheaper natural products-petroleum and natural gas. Over the past decade, however, a small government program in collaboration with private

industry has developed half a dozen new processes to the pilot plant stage.

These new processes have three main objectives. One is to produce a gas of high heat value to supplement natural gas. The second is to replace much of the natural gas, fuel oil and raw coal now burned in electric power plants with a cheap "power" gas. The third is to produce a range of synthetic oil products, from crude to gasoline.

But the conversion of native coal to these higher products is a long, arduous engineering job whose dimensions are just beginning to sink into the American public consciousness.

Coal is not a simple substance, but a highly-complex recalcitrant one, and it contains varying amounts of up to 36 other elements. All this makes coal a dirty fuel when simply burned, and much more difficult to handle and manipulate chemically than oil.

But the really gritty problem in coal conversion is materials handling on a gigantic scalehuge tonnages will have to be mined, pulverized and moved through plants in carefully controlled streams. What is required is nothing less than a major new industry. Compressing the coal-conversion program into a short time span makes it about equal in scale and investment to the original U.S. crash program to produce atomic energy.

0

'A vast majority of Americans see the law as the foundation of the social order, deserving of respect and allegiance.'

America is a society of consensus. It moves and evolves within the rather limited confines of shared beliefs. Throughout history, differences in the United States have been largely differences of interpretation and not "great ideological schisms," as Daniel Boorstin, an American political thinker, has pointed out.

This tradition stands in marked contrast to the great ideological conflicts of the European nations from the Protestant Reformation to the Risorgimento, the Paris Commune of 1871 and the Russian Revolution.

In the eyes of observers outside the United States, and indeed in the view of some critics, the American consensus has been breaking down recently under the impact of such profound social questions as relations between the races, urban problems and the relation of individual freedoms to national security.

To most Americans, however, the consensus is still very present and very real. A vast majority of Americans still see the law as the foundation of the social order, deserving of respect and allegiance. For all the fiery rhetoric, revolution in its classic sense is still remote and unthinkable, no matter in what light the people may view the policies of their government.

American respect for the law owes much to the remarkable durability and elasticity of its constitutional system. The United States Constitution, framed nearly two centuries ago, is the oldest in the world. In the sense that it is a living, constantly evolving set of principles, it is also one of the most modern.

Clearly, there are deficiencies in the Constitution, and there is debate among scholars over whether the evolutionary process of review and interpretation is sufficient to correct the shortcomings. Yet it should be noted that in the American system, the Constitution is the expression of social evolution; its deficiencies are the deficiencies of society at large. The law follows society, and as society changes, the law will surely reflect those changes.

Modern Western democracy may be said to have begun with the American Revolution of 1776. Significantly it was a revolution based on the feeling of the American colonists that the state itself had violated the rule of law.

Harold Berman, a noted legal scholar at Harvard University, has written that "the English who colonized America in the 17th and 18th centuries brought with them the Western concept of the supremacy of law, as embodied in the English historical tradition."

Yet much of the 17th-century English law was illadapted to conditions in the New World. Many of the privileges of the landed gentry were out of place in the frontier settlements; moreover, stability of family ties and of property relations was less important in the wilderness than equality of opportunity. Fortunately, English legal doctrine itself provided that the colonists carried with them only such laws of the mother country as were suitable to their new conditions ....

But the mother country refused to grant to the colonists all the legal rights of Englishmen. It was this more than any other single fact which ultimately caused the revolt against British rule. The American Declaration of Independence of 1776 consists chiefly of a list of charges of tyrannical abuses on the part of King George Ill, deprivations which the King was legally empowered to inflict upon his subjects in the colonies, although not upon his subjects at home .... The American Revolution was, in part, a secession of the colonies from England in order to enable the colonists to enjoy the rights of "free Englishmen.' ,

The United States that came into being in 1776 was a nation as poor as any on earth.

There were 13 separate colonies of varying size and interests, each jealous of its own powers and identity. It was Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration of Independence, who, when asked if he was a colonist, is said to have replied, "Sir, I am a Virginian."

It is worth noting that 13 years elapsed between the Declaration of Independence and the acceptance by the states of the Constitution to "form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity .... " In that time it became clear that only a strong federal authority, undergirded by the firm foundation of law, could implement the lofty ideals of the Declaration that "all men are created equal," and that each is entitled to "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."

The Constitution that was drafted in 1787 and went into effect in 1789 set up a "government oflaws and not of men." Curiously, that phrase does not appear in the Constitution itself, although the principle has guided all subsequent constitutional evolution in the United States. The phrase is actually John Adams's, and appears in the Bill of Rights appended to the Massachusetts Constitution of 1780: In the government of this Commonwealth, the legislative department shall never exercise the execu-

tive and judicial powers, or either of them; the executive shall never exercise the legislative and judicial powers, or either of them; the judicial shall never exercise the legislative and executive powers, or either of them; to the end it may be a government of laws and not of men.

Acceptance of that principle ensures that the United States will be governed not by caprice or individual whim, or by the tyrant's fiat, but by established precepts, commonly accepted by the great mass of the people.

Such an idea was not, of course, original with Adams or with the American colonists. It was part of the New World's inheritance from a long line of English political philosophers, and especially from John Locke. In much the same vein, Edmund Burke wrote in Thoughts on the Cause of the Present Discontents (1770), "Not men, but measures," and Oliver Goldsmith, in The Good-Natured Man (1773), made the statement, "Measures, not men, have always been my mark."

The Constitution adopted by the 13 states was specific en'Ough to establish the framework of government, with three separate branches, each with its own powers and checks upon the powers of the other branches.

But it was also broad enough in many parts to permit a wide degree of interpretation.

It is precisely this quality of "creative ambiguity" that has enabled the Constitution to grow and change with the changing American society.

The vital need to interpret, and indeed, constantly re-interpret various provisions of the Constitution has fostered a system of judicial review, in which the courts, and especially the Supreme Court, have the power to determine whether legislative acts and administrative practices are in agreement with the fundamental provisions of the Constitution. Interestingly enough, this is a power that is not explicitly spelled out in the document itself; yet it is one of the principal foundations of the constitutional system.

Implicit though the principle was, it was not affirmed until the landmark case of Marbury vs. Madison was decided by the Supreme Court in 1803. In his opinion in that case, Chief Justice John Marshall wrote "a legislative act contrary to the Constitution is not law .... It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is. Those who apply the rule to particular cases, must of necessity expound and interpret that rule. If two laws conflict with each other, the courts must decide on the operation of each."

Marshall further declared that, "The judi-

cial power of the United States is extended to all cases arising under the Constitution .... r n some cases, the Constitutioq must be looked into by the judges. And if they can open it at all, what part of it are they forbidden to read or obey?"

Because of the need to reconcile the divergent interests of the states, the Constitution was constructed laboriously through the summer of 1787, with nearly all its major provisions representing compromise of one degree or another. For example, the states of Virginia and New Jersey submitted conflicting plans for the structure of the legislative branch. The Virginia plan, reflecting the wishes of the larger states, provided for a bicamerallegislature, with a House of Representatives elected by popular vote, and a Senate elected by the House. The Virginia plan would have given the larger states clear control over the legislature. Consequently, the smaller states supported the New Jersey plan which provided for a unicameral legislature, with all states equally represented. The issue was resolved by the so-called "Great Compromise," introduced by Connecticut, under which all states are equally represented in the Senate and are represented in the House in proportion to their populations.

Dissatisfaction with the lack of guarantees of individual rights and liberties led to the drafting. of 12 amendments to the Constitution in the initial session of the new Congress in March 1789. Ten eventually were approved, and became known collectively as the Bill of Rights. Individual guarantees were further re-enforced by the passage after the Civil War of the 14th Amendment which provided, among other things, that "No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection¡ of the laws."

Learned Hand, one of 20th-century America's most eminent jurists, has equated the Bill of Rights to the concept of "natural law" which underlies the constitutional structure of most Western nations. He writes: Some of the states ... made these amendments a condition upon their ratification of the Constitution, and they were generally regarded as embodying the same political postulates that had been foreshadowed though not fully articulated in the exordium of the Declaration of Independence: "Self-evident" and "unalienable rights" with which all men "are endowed by their Creator" and among which are "life, liberty

Justice, said Earl 'Varren, could best be achieved 'whenever those who were not injured by injustice were as outraged as those who had been.'

and the pursuit of happiness."

That these were rights arising out of "natural laws" inherent in the structure of any society, or at least any civilized society, were notions widely accepted at the end of the 18th century. Even when the powers of king or emperor were at their most absolute and unconditioned peak, it had been conceived that there were limitations valid against any human authority.

When ruler or rulers, be they who they might, exercised powers that went beyond them, their acts were no law at all and nothing could make them so.

Harold Berman takes this line of reasoning a step further. He notes: ... It must be stressed that the Constitution itself specifically enacts, as positive law, certain broad principles of moral justice. Thus the Constitution states that no person may be deprived of life, liberty or property without "due process of law"-a phrase which means to an American what the phrase "natural law" has meant traditionally, namely, equality, consistency, impartiality, justice, fairness. The Constitution also guarantees certain broad freedoms such as freedom of speech and of religion, and certain broad rights such as the right not to be subjected to unreasonable searches and seizures, the right to an impartial trial and the right of all citizens to equal protection of the laws. By requiring that all laws must conform to these moral principles, the Constitution has encouraged American judges to submit to the test of conscience not only legislation, but all legal rules and all governmental acts, including their own judicial decisions.

It has been seen that flexibility is the key to the longevity of the American Constitution and that interpretation of constitutional law by the Supreme Court is a principal vehicle for change. Arthur S. Miller, a leading constitutional scholar, has written of the "living Constitution," and notes that, "The great and continuing function of the Court has been to act as a continuing constitutional convention, to update the fundamental law, to make it relevant in different times and for different people. Because it so acted for nearly two centuries, the oldest constitution in the world survived."

In its ongoing role as interpreter, the Supreme Court has not been reluctant to overturn its own decisions, when they have proven outdated or unequal to meeting the challenges of evolving society. In the English tradition, the courts were until very recently bound by the doctrine of stare decisis (let the

In recent years, Americans have become decision stand) to a strict adherence to precedence. American courts have been much increasingly outspoken about their social more flexible. In one landmark decision, for problems. Some critics have seen in this a example-Gideon vs. Wainright-the Court sign that the rule of law is entering a difficult ruled in 1963 that an accused is entitled to period, that respect for law, for the courts counsel, to be provided by the state if he and for the Constitution is on the decline. cannot afford it himself, even in noncapital Others take the openness as an inherent sign cases. That decision overturned a previous of the strength of American democracy.

Like most societies, the United States is Court decision to the contrary in the 1942 Betts vs. Brady case. passing through a period of profound social But judicial review is only one of several change. The minorities of the country are ways in which the American constitutional finding their voices after long years of silence. system is constantly changed. Among the Not only the blacks, but Mexican Americans, others are: Puerto Ricans and American Indians are beginning to demand a share of the American • formal amendments birthright. And Americans both inside and • legislative acts outside government are searching intently for • administrative or executive practices • informal practices not included within ways to meet such legitimate demands. the Constitution.

The temptation, in troubled times, is to The amendment process is a difficult one, measure the real against the ideal, and to forinvolving approval by three-quarters of the get that justice is a process that is constantly states of any proposed change. Nonetheless, it being achieved. Impatience with injustice is has been done 26 times since 1789. One of the the driving force behind social change; unmore recent amendments, approved in 1967, checked, it can also destroy the system that provides for the accession of the Vice Presi- holds the possibility for change. dent in the event of the death or incapacity Happily for all, the American constituof the President. The latest, ratified in 1971, tional system is anything but static. It is in a enfranchises all citizens 18 years of age and state of dynamic flux, everchanging and being above. changed to reflect the evolving needs of society. Former Chief Justice Earl Warren once put the problem into perspective: Only a few legislative acts, however, may "Over the entrance to our Supreme Court be said to have fundamentally influenced the Building in Washington are engraved the course of constitutional development. Three words 'Equal Justice under Law.' We would statutes cited by Arthur Miller are the Sher- like to believe we had already achieved that man Antitrust Act of 1890, the Employment end. But as we see evidence of injustice Act of 1946 and the Civil Rights Act of 1964. paraded before us in the Court Room we are In each case, argues Miller, " ... Congress, by forced to the conclusion that it is a goal of enacting the statute, in effect made a constitu- our nation and not its actual accomplishment. tional pronouncement. . . . Taken together, As you perhaps read in the press, our nation these three enactments-and there are others is now in the throes of wiping out the last -clearly indicate that Congress at times has vestiges of discrimination against people of actual, if not theoretical, power to change the every race, color and creed. When that is Constitution without benefit of amendment." done we will be a happier people and a In a similar manner, the President, through stronger nation."

Earl Warren-who presided over the the vast power concentrated in his office, can make decisions that have a profound effect Court during the historic 1954 decision which on constitutional processes. Vigorous en- struck down segregated public educationforcement, or lack of it, by executive agencies was asked how justice can best be achieved. is the determining factor in implementing the His answer, paraphrasing Solon. the Greek acts of Congress. law-giver of 2,500 years ago, was that justice Among the most interesting processes of could be achieved whenever those who were change are those which are found outside the not injured by injustice were as outraged as those who had been. "And that," said the Constitution itself. Many of the institutions and practices that have evolved in American Chief Justice, "is as true today as it was in 0 life were not contemplated by the framers of ancient Athens." the Constitution. Thus, no mention is made of political parties, business corporations or About the Author: Richard C. Schroeder is a freelabor unions. Yet the three are fundamental lance writer and a consultant to the U.S. State parts of the political and economic life of Department and other national and international the country. bodies. He is co-author of Dateline Latin America.

"No one thing is more important for the future relations of our two countries than growth in exchange of goods and services and people." This remark was made last April by U.S. Ambassador to India Daniel P. Moynihan. Significantly, his forum was the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce (IACC), which during the past five years . has done much to promote such an exchange.

To learn more about the IACC-what it is and what it doeswe visited its President, Harish Mahindra (above), in his Bombay office. These are the questions we asked and the answers he gave.

QUESTION: Mr. Mahindra, what is the IACC? Who are its members?

ANSWER: The Indo-American Chamber of Commerce represents a relatively new phase in an old business dialogue between India and the U.S. In 1968 several entrepreneurs interested in promoting Indo-American partnership in industry formed the IACC. The organization was formally inaugurated by Chester Bowles, then U.S. Ambassador to India, on October 28, 1968.

Indian and American citizens, firms and corporations are eligible to be members of the lACe. It started out with 120 members. Today it has 310 members whose activities cover agriculture, industry, engineering and trade.

The IACC is entirely financed by the subscriptions of its members.

QUESTION: Could you tell us a little about the aims of the IACC? ANSWER: Our broad objective is to promote and enlarge IndoU.S. trade. We hope to achieve this by: • Helping promote joint ventures (financial or technical) between Indian and American entrepreneurs.

• Helping promote the products and activities of memberfirms in India and the U.S. • Aiding exports through research services, incentive awards and establishment of contacts in the Indian and U.S. markets.

• Sponsoring and taking part in industrial fairs, exhibitions and catalogue shows.

• Holding seminars, lectures and panel discussions; dissemi nating information on' trade and investment opportunities through a monthly newsletter.

Guests at the IACC meeting in 1973 included three ambassadors.

From left: Ambassador Daniel P. Moynihan, H.P. Nanda, former lAce President, Ambassador T.N. Kaul, Ambassador L.K. Jha. • Encouraging business delegations from the U.S. to India and vice versa.

• Maintaining close liaison with chambers of commerce and trade and business organizations in India and abroad.

• Making representations to the Governments of India and the United States on matters pertaining to Indo-American trade and co-operation.

QUESTION: Would you say-to make a summary generalization-that the IACC provides a contact point in Indiafor American and Indian businessmen and facilitates a profitable economic relationship with the United States?

ANSWER: Yes. The IACC does facilitate a profitable economic relationship with the U.S. We are convinced that healthy international economic relations promote international peace.

We are strongly committed to India's economic growth and prosperity, and we are affiliated with India's two major commercial organizations-the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, and the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India.

QUESTION: Could you outline in detail some IACC activities?

ANSWER: Let me begin with export promotion, which the IACC attaches tremendous importance role in stimulating economic growth. We strive to

of the major a function to in view of its boost India's

exports not merely to the U.S. but to other countries as well.

ANSWER: Since its inception, the IACC has held nearly 50 In 1972, to commemorate the silver jubilee of Indian Inde- seminars on Indo-U.S. economic co-operation and on interpendence, the IACC instituted two annual awards for outstand- national economic problems in general. These have enabled ing performance in exporting nontraditional goods to the United businessmen, academicians and government officials to meet . States. A panel of judges selected two Indian companieseach other, define problems, explore solutions. The participants Dhrangadhra Chemical Works, Bombay, and Bhagwati Steel are often top decision-makers in government, business and Works, Calcutta-for the awards. industry.

Last year we held seminars on such subjects as "Contemporary Dhrangadhra Chemical Works exported Rs. 80.48 Ia:khsworth of upgraded ilmenite ore (78 per cent of its production) to the Issues in the World Economy," "Multinational Corporations U.S. in 1971, and Rs. 120.10 lakhs worth of it (the entire pro- in Economic Development," "Investment, Trade Promotion and duction) in 1972. Bhagwati Steel Works exported 99 per cent of Export Incentives," and "The Industrial World Ahead." A its production of hot-dipped galvanized tension bars to the U:S. Madras seminar titled "Promoting Indo-U.S. Trade in the in three successive years, the value being Rs. 35.86 lakhs in 1971 'Seventies" was extremely successful.

In 1972, at a seminar called "The Role of U.S. Collaboraand Rs. 72.16 lakhs in 1972.

From this¡ year, two awards will be given under separate tion in the Industrial Development of South India," there were categories: to an Indian company with or without foreign col- excellent background papers by Prof. S. Radhakrishnan, K.M. laboration for outstanding performance in exports to the United Mammen Mappillai of the Madras Rubber Factory [See "Tires States; and to an Indo-American collaboration company or an for the World," November 1973 SPAN] and others. Then there American branch or subsidiary in India for outstanding per- was a conference on "Business and Business Associations in the Changing Environment," co-sponsored by the All-India Assoformance in exports to any part of the world. ciation of Industries, which was addressed by such eminent industrialists as D.C. Kothari and Dr. Bharat Ram as well as by QUESTION: Are there not-I think I have seen them-statistics showing how well other Chamber members are doing in exports, business executives from the U.S., Japan and West Germany.

The IACC has hosted scores of stimulating lectures by visiting not just to the U.S. but to all foreign nations?

ANSWER: There is one export survey covering 49 members (for and local economists, distinguished Americans from governthe year 1970-71) which showed a total export figure of Rs. 54 ment, industry and academia, Indian Ambassadors to the U.S. crores. American member-firms of the IACC exported a sub- and American Ambassadors to India. The Chamber has thus stantial percentage of their production. IBM exported as much served the cause not merely of Indo-U.S. economic co-operation but also of better Indo-U.S. understanding. as 61 per cent; Merck, Sharp and Dohme, 25 per cent.

Penetrating sophisticated export markets calls for extensive data surveys and market studies. The IACC has taken a step in QUESTION: In its first year of existence, the IACC took part this direction with an exhaustive¡ commodity survey to identify in the Fifth National Agricultural Fair in Bombay with an exhibit areas where opportunities for exports to the U.S. have arisen. featuring the activities and products of member-firms. The IACC This survey analyzes items that enter the U.S. market, identifies pavilion won a special prize for "outstanding contribution to the success of the fair." Has the IACC been involved in any similar India's major competitors and their share in total U.S. imports.

It discusses the scope for consumer and engineering goods and . exhibitions or shows? provides a list of labor-intensive products in which India has ANSWER: We have organized book exhibitions on such subgood prospects in the U.S. market. It also gives detailed infor- jects as "American Management Techniques," "The Role of Technology," and "The. American Economy." Then, of course, mation on India's share in U.S. exports to help prospective there have been the "catalogue shows." These shows are sponAmerican exporters looking for new opportunities in India. sored by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are sometimes QUESTION: Isn't the Chamber also quite active in studying held in conjunction with symposia and film shows. The purpose of catalogue shows is to introduce American products to the Indo-American joint ventures?

ANSWER: Yes. One study we are working on discusses the Indian business community.

I should like to mention two other fields where the IACC is social and economic benefits resulting from Indo-American collaborations in relation to the costs involved. Another study is very active-helping small Indian industries and finding jobs in India for Indians who are working in America. on containerization, lash and seabed concepts in sea transport Though. the IACC consists primarily of large and mediumand the applicability of these concepts to the handling of bulk cargo at Indian ports. This study is likely to be of great value in sized enterprises, its facilities and services are used even more modernizing port facilities and reducing transport costs. A useful by small-scale industries. Several prospective small exporters to the U.S. from all over the country have sought information study completed in 1972 is titled "Regional. Compensation Practices in South East Asia," which provides data on com- from the Chamber about marketing possibilities for their propensation policies and practices, allowances and fringe benefits, ducts in the U.S. To help small industries, many IACC members not only buy their requirements from small-scale industries but wages and salaries. It also forecasts wage trends in India.

We have also produced over a dozen pamphlets on such sub- also help them solve technical or marketing problems. Several IACC members operate training centers for small entrepreneurs jects as "Foreign Capital and Technology," "The Indian Market," and "Indo-American Collaborations Approved by the Govern- to provide the expert guidance they lack. ment of India." We also publish a monthly newsletter that Then there are job placements for Indians working in America. provides information on trade and investment opportunities in Qualified Indians residing in the U.S. have often sought the India and America, and carries special articles on various as- IACC's help to obtain jobs in India. We maintain liaison with pects of Indo-U.S. economic co-operation. the India League of America in Chicago and with firms in India to help resettle returnees. We have assisted scores of U.S.-trained QUESTION: Other activities the Chamber is noted for are its professional men to return to their mother country. and partiseminars and lectures. Could you tell us something about those? cipate in its development.

QUESTION: I seem to recall that a few years ago the Chamber was trying to do something about the unemployment problem for Indian engineers in India. What was the lACe's solution?

ANSWER: In 1970 we suggested that private industrialists provide on-the-job training for engineers for six to 12 months, and that Indian industry send qualified engineers on overseas assignments for specific periods to assist countries where such talent was lacking. Escorts, an IACC member company, began training young engineers in the techniques of modern farming, farm management, and the marketing and maintenance of farm machinery. Two other IACC member-firms-IBM and ITT (International Telephone and Telegraph Corporation)-also implemented programs for sending engineers abroad.

QUESTION: Mr. Mahindra, are you optimistic about the expansion of Indo-U.S. trade?

ANSWER: Yes, I hold high hopes. Because in today's world, the continuing dynamism and growth of the American economy would be impossible without expanding foreign trade. And for India and other developing countries, increasing trade with more developed nations is essential to achieve and maintain an adequate rate of growth.

India ought to benefit from the projected expansion of America's imports consequent on the rise in its GNP and per capita income. According to an IACC study, by 1990 more than 40 million American families will have incomes exceeding Rs. 120,000(at 1971 prices). About one in every four families in 1990 will have an income above Rs. 200,000 as compared to one in every 20 today. This means a tremendous potential increase in American purchasing power, which should benefit many countries including India.

At present, India accounts for less than 0.8 per cent of America's total world imports. It seems ludicrous to me that a country of India's size and population and India's vast potential should sell so little to America.

As Ambassador Moynihan said recently, if India merely maintains its present share of u.s. imports, Indian exports ought to rise from Rs. 319 crores to Rs. 353 crores; ifIndia were to double its share, its exports would touch a handsome Rs. 720 crores.

IACC members are determined to do their bit toward doubling India's share.

I will add that India and the U.S. have much in common. In a sense we speak the same language-English is not really a foreign hinguage. I think there is a certain respect and rapport between the people of India and the U.S. Our ideologies are not in conflict. And the basic foundation for Indo-U.S. co-operation has been laid. We do not have to start from scratch. What is needed is a vigorous effort on the part of both countries to give trade a boost.

QUESTION: In what areas do you envisage higher Indian exports to the U.S.?¡ ANSWER: At present, 80 per cent of India's exports to the U.S. consists of traditional goods-such as jute manufactures, cotton textiles, tea, cashew kernels, and so on. It is nontraditional goods, however, which offer greater scope for export expansion, and it is in these that India should concentrate-particularly in the labor-intensive items where we hold an advantage. That is why the lACe has instituted an award for export of nontraditional goods to the U.S. In fact, America constitutes the largest single market for manufactured exports from developing countries.

The range of nontraditional goods India has started exporting is striking. It includes such items as cast iron and steel pipes,

small tools, metal manufactures, readymade garments, leather, rubber, paper and wood manufactures. But there is still a vast array of goods the U.S. imports in which India does not figure at all or has only a negligible share. There is thus enormous scope here for India to"improve ¡its performance. And India can do so if it evolves a long-term approach, ensures strict adherence to the standards and specifications of U.S. buyers, conducts planned market research, and ensures scientific distribution of products in the U.S. Importing the latest technology will enable India to compete effectively in international markets. This may seem a drain on the country's foreign exchange resources, but in the ultimate analysis, selective import of technology from advanced countries will help India generate foreign exchange resources through increased exports of high-quality manufactured goods.

The possibility of Indo-U.S. collaboration establishing industries in India aimed at exports to third countries is worthy of investigation.

I would also like to mention another form of Indo-American collaboration-the specialized skills contributed by Indian students, managers, engineers and technicians educated or trained in the U.S. Their contribution is intangible but very valuable.

QUESTION: To.ask a very fundamental question-do you think Indo-American collaboration has benefited the Indian economy?

ANSWER: Indo-U.S. collaboration or, for that matter, collaboration with any advanced country, contributes to India's economic growth. If one examines India's industrial base before Independence, one finds that most of India's industries dealt with consumer goods, plantations and extractive products. Barring two steel mills, we hardly had any capital or intermediate industries. Today the industrial landscape presents a totally different picture, with well-established petroleum refineries, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, light and heavy engineering industries. It is of course difficult to assess exactly the contribution of foreign capital and, technology in this impressive development, but I can say without hesitation that many of these industries owe a lot to technology and skills obtained from abroad.

Of the 4,000 joint ventures approved by the Government of India, the highest number is with the United Kingdom (929), followed by the United States (663), West Germany (569), Japan (337), Switzerland (177), France (150) and Italy (100). All the collaborating countries have contributed in one way or another to diversifying India's industrial structure. Indo-American collaboration, particularly, has played an outstanding role in the growth of high-technology industries.

QUESTION: Has foreign private investment benefited India?

ANSWER: Its most significant role has been to fill technological gaps-:'and this is particularly vital in export-oriented industries.

I would welcome foreign private investment in selected areas¡ where Indian know-how is limited-for instance, in fertilizers and the chemical industry, in agricultural equipment and sophisticated engineering goods.

QUESTION: What role do you envisage for the IA CC in the future?

ANSWER: I think we have a positive and dynamic role to play in India's economic growth. I can do no better than quote our distinguished Ambassador to the U.S., T.N. Kaul, who said: "We must develop India's economic relationship with the U.S. to the maximum extent possible on a footing of fairness, equality and reciprocity." The IACC agrees with this objective and is 0 vigorously pursuing it.

PL-480 RUPEE AGREEMENT SIGNED On February 18, 1974, the Government of India and the Government of the United States formally signed an Agreement for the disposition of U.S.-owned rupees generated by PL-480 grain sales and other American economic assistance to India in the past 20 years; The signatories were the same two men who had previously initialed the Agreement two months earlier-Indian Economic Affairs Secretary M.G. Kaul and American Ambassador Daniel P. Moynihan. After the signing, Secretary Kaul made the following remarks: "Mr. Ambassador, on the 13th of December 1973, you joined with me in initialing an Agreement between the Government of India and the Government of the United States on the disposition of the PL-480 and other U.S.-held rupees. It was our understanding that as soon as legislative and government approval had been completed, we would meet again to conclude this Agreement formally. This we are now doing ....

"Under the various agricultural sales agreements, commonly called PL-480, the U.S. sold to India from 1956 to 1972 about 60 million tons of agricultural products of value of about $4.8 milAmbassador Moynihan (left) shakes hands lion. We have repaid today, under the terms of this Agreement, the with Secretary Kaul after signing the rupee Agreement. loans given to the Government of India against the sale proceeds of these commodities. A large part of this repayment is now being ther strengthening of economic relations between us, an objective granted to us under the terms of this Agreement, and we have toward which we must proceed with the utmost dispatch. The agreed to attribute these funds to a number of development pro- mutual trust begotten by this Agreement will, I am sure, make this jects in the Fifth Five-Year Plan. This attribution is in recognition effort easier and more fruitful." of the large contribution made to our economy by PL-480 loans At the conclusion of Secretary Kaul's remarks, Ambassador in past years during which .agricultural commodities were received Moynihan responded with these words: and utilized by us ....

"The Agreement also provides that over a period of five years the United States Government will additionally import [Indian] . " ... The Agreement which you and I have signed today is, I goods of the value of a $100 million out of which a quarter, name- submit, unique in the annals of diplomatic history. When we sat ly $25 million, will be paid for out of U.S.-retained rupees. The down several months back to start work on this Agreement, both balance will be purchased against free dollars provided by the of us were without precedents to guide us. You and your colUnited States. The scope for additional exports of this nature to leagues in Delhi, and I and my colleagues both here and in Washthe United States is large. I would hope from this small start much ington, had no textbooks to tell us how to do away with the major part of a debt owed by one sovereign country to another, apd to do larger exports unrelated to this Agreement will flow .... ~'The conclusion of this Agreement, Mr. Ambassador, is a mile- it in a way that would satisfy both the interests of the respective stone in the economic relations between our two countries, an countries and-perhaps much more important in our respective outstanding evidence of the desire to strengthen these relations on countries-to satisfy the public opinion of each. The fact that we the basis of equality and mutuality of interests. The desire to con- are here today demonstrates our success ....

"Mr. Secretary, I should like very much to associate myself with clude such an Agreement has existed on both sides for many years.

Only now has it become possible to bring this desire to fruition. In both the substance and the spirit of the remarks which you have large measure, this is due to the efforts made by you and to your made, amending them only to say that it is my experience and my personal involvement in ensuring a successful outcome. To this judgment, but the judgment, I think, of all the American officials end you have not spared yourself any effort, physical or mental. on this side of the table, that whatever we may have contributed to And I would, here on this occasion, wish to pay a tribute both to the willingness to bring about this Agreement, its substance, its this effort and its. success. I would in fact venture to say, Mr. form and its final completion could never have come about withAmbassador, that when you look back on your tenure in India, out your own unique role within your own country and the singuthis Agreement will stand out as a signal achievement among, of lar regard with which you are held by the representatives of other 0 course, many other achievements. It is a happy augury for the fur- countries. Thank you, Mr. Secretary."

DRAB

CITY WALLS SUDDENLY GO WILD How does one transform a drab neighborhood into a colorful community? There are any number of ways, most of which call for a tremendous outlay of money.

But American artists have discovered something that is novel and yet not expensive. They are converting the ugly sides of buildings, transforming eyesores into easels. In a movement that is sweeping the U.S., artists are using these walls

for giant murals and supergraphics. In Detroit, Alex Pollock took the Eastern Farmers' Market (left) and gave it his imaginative treatment (below). Other examples: Railway passengers in Boston see a tribute to the brotherhood of man painted on a row house (bottom left).

And in Cincinnati, the bricked-up windows of a warehouse (bottom right) were transformed into all-seeing eyes!