Hurricane Season News

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. We’ll take a look at last year, the science involved, as well as 2021 forecasts. Remember, regardless of what’s predicted for the season, you should prepare for the worst. Coastal Georgia has been lucky since 2016 when Tropical Storm Hermine came through in early September, followed just a month later by Hurricane Matthew, which spun up the Georgia coastline about 50 miles offshore as a Category 2 storm. Remember, it only takes one storm to make this a bad hurricane season.

By Amy Thurman

2021 Forecast Storm Type NOAA CSU NCSU Named TBA 17 15-18 Hurricanes TBA 8 7-9 Major TBA 4 2-3

Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas

If more than 21 named storms occur in the season, the Greek Alphabet will be used.

2020 Season Recap

The 2020 hurricane season started off in high gear with three named storms, Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal, prior to the official June 1 start. These three storms and six others that formed in June and July constituted a new record for nine early season named storms.

It didn’t slow down. By September we’d already gone through all 21 names allotted for Atlantic storms for 2020, with Wilfred being the last name on the list. After the 21 names are used in a season, naming switches to the Greek alphabet, and by the season’s end, an additional nine named storms took us through Iota. This was only the second time in recorded history that the Greek alphabet was used for the rest of the season. In total, there were 30 named storms last year, setting a new record as the busiest season to date, followed by 2005 with 28 named storms. Of those 30, 13 were classified as hurricanes, 12 made landfall in the continental U.S. and six were considered major hurricanes, with windspeeds of 111 mph or higher. These numbers also made 2020 the fifth consecutive year of an above normal hurricane season. Why?

The Science

One explanation for the increase in hurricane activity in recent years is the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO. This is basically long-term warm and cool phases of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic. These phases last 20 – 40 years and we’re in a warm phase that began in 1995. Warm phases can mean more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms than cool phases. It’s impossible to predict how long we’ll remain in this warm phase, but we are still definitely in it. (For more on the very interesting topic of AMOs, visit: www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php) 2020 was also a La Nina year. El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns that originate in the Pacific and can impact weather worldwide. Simply put, El Niño means a stronger hurricane season

Tropical Storm (not part of Saffir-Simpson) Sustained winds of 39 – 73 mph Dangerous winds, will produce some damage.

Sustained winds of 74 – 95 mph Very dangerous winds, will produce some damage.

Sustained winds of 96 – 110 mph Extremely dangerous winds, will cause extensive damage.

Sustained winds of 111 – 129 mph Devastating damage will occur.

Sustained winds of 130 – 156 mph Catastrophic damage will occur.

Sustained winds of 157 mph or higher Catastrophic damage will occur.

in the central and eastern Pacific basins, while La Niña means a stronger hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

La Niña began to taper off last fall, leaving us in a kind of neutral zone, as El Niño has yet to begin and may not begin again this year. Each of these climate patterns typically last from nine to 12 months. They typically begin in the spring (around March) and last through the fall. To learn more about El Niño and La Niña, visit the government climate website at bit.ly/nino-nina-QA.

On another note, last year marked the end of a 30-year “period of record,” running from 1991 – 2020. The previous period of record ran from 1981 – 2010 and provided data that gave us yearly averages. Those averages, which you’ve seen listed alongside most

hurricane forecasts for the past ten years, were 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, per season.

Now that we’ve entered a new 30-year period of record, the data from 1991 – 2020 has been calculated and we have new “average hurricane season” numbers to use as a guideline. And they’ve increased to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, though three major hurricanes per season remains unchanged. This doesn’t mean we’ll have more hurricanes, it simply means that the numbers have increased over the previous 30-year period of record.

What does all this mean for this year?

2021 Hurricane Season Forecasts

Southern Tides follows three hurricane forecasting centers: NOAA, Colorado State University (CSU) and North Carolina State University (NCSU). NOAA has released a statement that it will issue its forecast in late May, and it seems unlikely that they will predict a less-than-average season. CSU and NCSU have issued theirs and both are predicting slightly higher than average activity.

In looking back over the past six years, all three agencies have routinely forecasted fewer storms than what were actually recorded. It is also possible that these forecasts may be revised as new climate data becomes available or changes significantly, so check periodically for updates.

CSU states in their published forecast, “We anticipate an aboveaverage probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” They also state that a significant El Niño seems unlikely, and if you’ll recall, a significant El Niño means a less active hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

In addition, CSU predicts a 45% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the east coast (the average for the last century is 31%).

The bottom line is another busy season and you should begin preparing for it now. Southern Tides will post our hurricane guide on our website prior to June 1. For some basic tips to get you started, take a look at the Editor’s Note on page 7.

Stay safe!

www.chathamemergency.org/

bit.ly/BryanCo_EMA

www.libertycountyga.com/244/Emergency-Management

www.mcintoshema.com/

bit.ly/GlynnCo_EMA

www.camdencountyga.gov/81/Emergency-Management

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