November 2018

NOVEMBER 2018

Choose to be optimistic, it feels better.

Dalai Lama XIV

Honoring Veterans 11/11/18

Did you vote?

A few words…

Since mid-September I’ve been to economic meetings, economic forums, and economic forecast conferences in Klamath Falls, Springfield, Roseburg and Portland featuring some of the best minds on the subject from Oregon, California, Pennsylvania and Washington D.C. All were especially positive.

In contrast to political campaign rhetoric and media headlines they could have been talking about different countries and communities. The difference was that the experts at the meetings I attended had facts and figures to back their comments and opinions. So, I choose them.

Today there are more jobs available in America than there are people to fill them. Technology hasn’t reduced the job market, but it has changed it. The skills necessary to fill many positions is at a different scale than the strong back, blue collar jobs of only a generation ago. Making the transition is our difficulty. Technological advances move at a more rapid pace than our system of educating the workforce can provide.

That sheep-skin diploma is no longer good enough by itself. Now, it needs to be meaningful.

We are pressing hard toward a renaissance in education. I’m impressed with the learning going on in classrooms and vocational training centers around Oregon. Internet speeds keep going beyond what we imagined a very short time ago. Those ubiquitous mobile devices we carry everywhere we go has the equivalent of all the world’s libraries in them, right there, in the palms of our hands!

America’s future looks just fine. Its our now that keeps me awake at night.

Greg The Southern Oregon Business Journal extends sincere thanks to the following companies for their continued presence as important cogs in the wheels of industry in southern Oregon. There are 45,000 businesses in southern Oregon and these are among the leaders on whom we depend.

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A JOURNAL FOR THE ECONOMICALLY CURIOUS, PROFESSIONALLY INSPIRED AND ACUTELY MOTIVATED

Contents Inside This Issue 2. A Few Words 8. Oregon’s Spiders 10. This Isn’t Your Grandparents Logging 12. Oregon Tech Awards Expert

FEATURED 5. What’s Sustainability Got To Do With It? 18. The Diversity of Local Government

13. Photo Ark Visual Storytelling

22. Small Town Survival

16. SE Oregon Economic Indicators

25. KCC Dedicates Major Additions

17. Coastal Employment Base

34. Where Have the Adventurers Gone?

20. Ruth Miles Small Business Advocate 21. Coos Bay Rail Line 28. Far Reaching Locally Rooted 30. Job Insights 32. Entrepreneurial Mindset 37. Markets Rattling Investors 38. Health Tips- Arthritis Pain Relief

703 Divot Loop Sutherlin, Oregon 97479 www.southernoregonbusiness.com 541-315-6127

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COVER PHOTO Winston, Oregon

By Greg Henderson

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WHAT'S SUSTAINABILITY GOT TO DO WITH IT? LINKING SUSTAINABILITY CLAIMS TO SALES FMCG AND RETAIL

HTTPS://WWW.NIELSEN.COM/US/EN.HTML “All natural,” “fair trade,” “organic”—more and more products across the store include claims of sustainability. But what do all these claims mean?

Describing a product as “sustainable” could mean that it’s sourced responsibly, for example, or that it utilizes recyclable packaging—as well as a whole host of other potential attributes. Understanding how and why sustainability claims are gaining momentum across product categories is critical to understanding how, when and why consumers prioritize sustainable options.

With all of the various sustainability factors and evolving trends in play, companies need to understand whether and how these broader sentiments play out for their specific brand and consumer profile. For example, who are the consumers you have yet to reach? Does your product have a sustainable attribute—and could leveraging sustainability claims on product packaging present a new market opportunity?

As society becomes more aware of the social and environmental impact of products and services, consumers are becoming more mindful of their purchases.

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In this report, we deep-dive into three product categories—chocolate, coffee, and bath products— to demonstrate how and where sustainability sells. Our analysis focused on U.S. consumers’ purchasing behavior, using sales data from the food-drug store-mass merchandiser (FDMx) channel. There are many categories to choose from, but for this study we selected chocolate, coffee and bath products because they are sufficiently different from one another and are among the most common fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) purchases across consumer groups.

What did we find? Overall, sales of items with certain sustainability claims across all three categories grew faster than the total category.

In a recent report, we compared the performance of sustainability claims in the U.S. across three product categories—chocolate, coffee, and bath products—to understand consumers’ sentiments toward various sustainability factors.

For all three categories, dollar sales of items with the specific claims studied grew twice as fast as the weighted average dollar growth of the three

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categories combined. In other words, products with certain sustainability attributes outperformed the growth rate of total products in their respective categories despite challenges that might have predicted otherwise, like a relatively smaller market share.

That said, one size does not fit all. Given the range of different, interrelated sustainability aspects in each product category, we focused on select product claims for each category. But the methodology can be replicated across many fast-moving consumer goods product categories and customized for specific brands or companies. No matter what, sustainability is no longer a niche play: your bottomline and brand growth depend on it.

energy, etc.), absence of artificial ingredients, and fair trade.

While chocolate with environmental claims makes up only 0.2% of the total category share, it grew by 22% from March 2017 to March 2018. This is more than 4x the rate of total category dollar growth when it comes to sales. Looking at units, it’s a similar story: We see chocolate with environmental claims flying off the shelves at a rate 5x faster than The overall market—15% unit sales growth compared with 3%.

SWEET, SWEET SUSTAINABILITY

Sales of products with fair trade claims (which make up only 0.1% of total chocolate share) are growing faster than the overall category as well, with dollar sales growth outpacing category growth by 2x (10% vs. 5%) and unit sales growth by 5x (15% vs. 3%).

Diving deeper into the chocolate category, our research explored the impact of three key claims across the category: environmental claims (carbon neutral, ethically sourced, made with renewable

Chocolate that is free of artificial ingredients, or made with “clean” ingredients, is growing on par in unit sales with the total chocolate category, both

Source: Nielsen Answers on Demand (Health & Wellness Characteristics) & Nielsen Product Insider, powered by Label Insight | Total US FDMx | 52 Weeks Period Ending 03/24/2018 vs Year Ago

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growing at 3%. This could lead to the assumption that products with this claim are not growing faster than the total category. However, products with this claim have grown faster from a dollar sales perspective than the total market (16% vs 5%). Based on that, we can infer that price is actually higher per unit, and that consumers are willing to pay more for the sustainable choice.

Along with the increase of the average retail unit price, chocolate free from artificial ingredients is increasingly being sold in a greater number of stores, while the distribution of all other chocolate is flat. This again shows that consumers are actively choosing to pay more for chocolate products free of artificial ingredients and that brands are increasing distribution to account for that demand.

COFFEE STIMULATES SUSTAINABILITY OPPORTUNITIES

While the total coffee category declined 1% in dollar growth from March 2017 to March 2018, coffee products with environmental and fair-trade claims experienced double-digit dollar sales growth for the same period. Overall, sales of coffee products with sustainability claims grew faster than the total coffee category.

In many ways this space is evolving; however, what we do know is that sustainability presents an opportunity to be creative about innovative growth.

Embedding consumer demand for sustainability into your company strategy and product pipeline requires data specific to your brand footprint and consumer profile.

For more information, download our full report, "What's Sustainability Got to Do With It?"

As with the chocolate category, we’ve chosen to take a look at the same three sustainability claims for coffee: environmental claims, absence of artificial ingredients and fair trade.

Crystal Barnes

TOTAL COFFEE

SVP, Global Responsibility and Sustainability, Nielsen; Executive Director, Nielsen Foundation

ENVIRONMENT CLAIMS

FAIR TRADE

ABSENCE OF ARTIFICIAL INGREDIENTS

Source: Nielsen Answers on Demand (Health & Wellness Characteristics).

“Absence of Artificial Ingredients” data sourced from Nielsen Product Insider, powered by Label Insight | Total US FDMx | 52 Weeks Period Ending 03/24/2018 vs Year Ago

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More About Oregon Spiders: Hobo, Giant House, Black Widow, and Yellow Sac Spiders Hobo (Tegenaria agrestis) & giant house spiders (T. gigantea) The most common spiders submitted for identification at the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) are hobo and giant house spiders. Both spiders were accidentally introduced from Europe. They can be found wherever people live in Oregon. This is because they prefer living in and around homes and because they “hitchhike” on people’s belongings when people move. Most of these spiders are found in the late summer through early fall because the males have emerged from their normal shelters to look for females with which to mate. When these spiders are seen in homes they are usually somewhere on the floor, but they can also be found on walls and ceilings or in cabinets, tubs, and showers. These spiders do not make obvious webs and search for prey at night.

Male Giant House Spider

Female Giant House Spider (above & below) Thomas Shahan, Oregon Department of Agriculture

Male Hobo Spider In Europe, the hobo spider and all other related species are considered harmless. In the northwest US Hobo spiders have gained the reputation as being dangerous. They are often referred to as “aggressive house spiders.” This is not true – they are no more aggressive than any other spider. That misunderstanding is based on a misinterpretation of the scientific name (which is in Latin, as are most scientific names), Tegenaria agrestis, where “agrestis” has been thought to refer to “aggressive.” In Latin, “agrestis” actually refers to “fields” where hobo spiders can often be found.

It is often very difficult to tell hobo spiders and giant house spiders apart. Adult giant house spiders are larger than hobo spiders, especially the males.

However, spiders grow gradually so that a young giant house spider may be smaller than an older hobo spider. Also, a poorly fed or “sickly” giant house spider may never grow to full size. Otherwise, these spiders look very similar. Identifiers familiar with these spiders know how to tell them apart, but this often requires examination under a microscope. If you would like to have a spider identified for you bring or mail them to ODA.

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The western black widow spider (Latrodectus hesperus) Black Widow Spider

Black widow spiders are most common in southwestern and eastern Oregon. They are much less so in northwestern Oregon, although they are present, most often on south facing slopes that are rocky and bare of dense trees. On occasion, they are found in houses in the Willamette Valley. For instance, one was brought into the ODA from a house in Salem.

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They can also hitchhike when people move from other parts of Oregon to areas where black widows are uncommon. Black widows prefer dark places such as garages, basements, and crawl spaces. They make messy looking webs in tight corners and crevices near the ground or behind and underneath furniture or other items. Once they make a web, they rarely leave it unless disturbed.

Black widows are likely the most harmful spiders in Oregon. Even so, the amount of venom received from a bite is not usually enough to cause a serious reaction in most people. Black widow venom causes very different symptoms than those associated with hobo spider and yellow sac spider bites. It damages the nervous system, leading to symptoms such as abdominal muscle cramps, nausea, profuse perspiration, tremors, fever, labored breathing, and restlessness. These symptoms often last for only a few days. While black widow bites can be very serious, fewer than one out of a hundred of those bitten die.

However, anyone who believes they’ve been bitten by a black widow should immediately seek medical attention.

Female black widows are easily identified because they have a distinctive hourglass shaped bright red spot on the underside (not the top of) their abdomen.

They also have a very round abdomen and are glossy black, with slender legs. Male black widow spiders are much smaller and differently colored and are rarely encountered. There are several Oregon spiders often found in or around homes that closely resemble female black widows, including the false black widow.

However, false black widows are all black and do not have the red spot on the underside of the abdomen.

As with hobo spiders, if you think you’ve been bitten by a black widow, try to save the specimen so an identifier can confirm whether that is so.

There are several hundred species of yellow sac spiders in North America. They are small spiders that are pale yellow to yellow green, with few other markings. Yellow sac spiders don’t make webs but actively search for prey at night. These spiders can be found outside during the day in silken sacs under objects such as planters, firewood, and rocks and on plants in curled up leaves. When they enter homes (usually during cooler weather), they hide in white silken sacs where the ceiling meets the wall or other similar corner. These sacs are also often found along windowsills.

symptoms. According to one published report, 20 verified cases of yellow sac spider bites in the US and Australia showed no significant tissue damage. In addition, of 39 verified yellow sac spider bites in international literature there was only one case with mild tissue damage from such a bite in Europe. One of ODA’s staff was bitten by a yellow sac spider in Salem.

The bite burned and was painful for a short time. A small, reddish welt eventually formed, which mildly itched and lasted for about a week. No further damage or symptoms developed. Of course, other people bitten may have different reactions. As with suspected hobo spider bites, the spider should be saved for identification and, especially if severe symptoms develop, medical attention may be advisable.

Yellow Sac Spider Joseph Berger, Bugwood.org

Other Oregon spiders Some other spiders commonly found in and around Oregon homes include grass spiders (species of Agelenopsis), wolf spiders (species of Pardosa), the cellar spider (Pholcus phalangioides), crab or flower spiders (Misumena vatia), the false black widow (Steadota grossa), the folding trapdoor spider (Antrodiatetus pacificus), jumping or zebra spiders (the Phidippus with metallic fangs and Salticus scenicus), the writing spider (Argiope aurantia), the banded garden spider (Argiope trifasciata), and the cross spider (Araneus diadematus). Although some of these are quite large and may resemble injurious venomous spiders (for instance, the false black widow resembles the true black widow and the folding trapdoor spider resembles a small tarantula), none are known to have bites harmful to people. A commonly encountered creature that resembles a spider, but is not, is the harvestman or daddy long legs (Phalangidae). Although these can be quite large and appear threatening, they cannot bite people, even though some people are firmly convinced they are harmful.

For further information please contact: Oregon Department of Agriculture Plant Division www.oregon.gov/ODA/PLANT

As with hobo spider bites, bites of yellow sac spiders have been reported to cause long term or severe tissue damage. However, also as with hobo spider bites, there have been few confirmed instances of yellow sac spider bites, let alone of those leading to these

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This isn’t your grandparents’ logging

Being new to the forest sector, I have to admit that today’s logging operations are quite different than the popular-culture image of a burly, bearded man wearing a plaid shirt and carrying an ax. Three recent firsthand experiences have provided me with a clearer picture of how logging is done in Oregon.

The first experience was on private land, and my guide was forest industry veteran Pete Sikora of Giustina Resources. I couldn’t have asked for a better guide than Pete. Since I’m a newcomer to the forest sector, I appreciated that Pete didn’t use too many acronyms – and because he’s spent his entire career in the sector, he was able to tap into his knowledge and explain what I was seeing in a sustainably managed forest.

From this visit to a logging operation, I had three key takeaways: 1) Safety is paramount in logging.

2) Technology is being used in new and unexpected ways to make logging more efficient and safe.

3) Careful planning and preparation are built into the process, to protect wildlife and water.

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My second experience was very different, because it was at Oregon State University’s McDonald-Dunn Research Forest for the Pacific Logging Congress Live In-Woods Show last month. The event itself is a hybrid of trade show, forestry educational outreach and live logging equipment demonstrations. It took three and a half years to plan and execute. The impressive show was a testament to the hard work of all the event volunteers and sponsors who worked to bring the newest equipment, methods and loggers together to put on live demonstrations. These demos showcased cutting-edge logging technology using automation, improved traction to protect soils from compaction, and even some aerial drones that assist with safety during tethered logging operations.

Again I had a great guide at the event: OFRI’s Director of Forestry, Mike Cloughesy. He's on the left in this photo of us at the show:

One other takeaway I had from this experience was provided by the more than 450 high school students in attendance. The young men and women from across Oregon that I observed were engaged in the demonstrations, and excited by possible future careers in the forest industry. I was impressed to see them pulling out their phones to take videos of the demos.

Finally, I recently spent a few hours in a small woodland with Matt Hegerberg, an OFRI board member and owner of Heron Timber. Matt’s operation didn’t have all the bells and whistles I saw at the Live In-Woods Show, but I was struck by how deeply he cares about his company and its employees. He and I discussed things like the efforts he’s taken to ensure his employees have family-wage jobs with health care and retirement benefits.

I wish every Oregonian had an opportunity to see a logging operation up-close and personal. These experiences gave me a new and real point of reference. I find that in today’s fast-paced world, many of us don’t take the time to really understand something we don’t experience in our daily lives. We too often rely on the shorthand of pop culture, the media and other people’s opinions to shape our ideas. I guess I’m just another opinion to add to the mix, but I can tell you I didn’t witness anything unsafe, there weren’t too many bearded men, and I certainly didn’t meet anyone who didn’t view themselves as a steward of the land.

Erin Isselmann Executive Director OFRI Southern Oregon Business Journal

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Oregon Tech Awards Geothermal Expert Dr. John Lund with Inaugural Ambassador Award By: Ashley Van Essen, Public Relations Representative ashley.vanessen@oit.edu

Oct. 30, 18, Klamath Falls, OR. — Oregon Institute of Technology, “Oregon Tech,” began a new tradition as it awarded the first-ever Oregon Tech Ambassador Award to former faculty member, John Lund, Ph.D. Dr. Lund was not only applauded for the length of his tenure, but for his continued engagement and ambassadorship, even after retirement from Oregon Tech. In recognition of his continued dedication and perennial ambassadorship for the university, the award was presented to Dr. Lund at an annual length of service event held by the university Oct. 18.

An internationally renowned pioneer and world expert in the field of geothermal energy, Dr. Lund has been engaged in service to the Oregon Tech community for over 50 years. He has lectured and provided training in 46 countries around the world and has written extensively on the subject with many prestigious honors and awards in the field. He began his career at Oregon Tech in 1967 as an associate professor in Civil Engineering and continued as a professor in the department through 1999, while also serving as department chair, division chair, associate dean and dean. He is one of the original founders of the Geo-Heat Center at Oregon Tech and served as director from 1997 until 2010. Dr. Lund is both an emeritus faculty member and an emeritus administrator at Oregon Tech, a significant accomplishment matched by few.

Oregon Tech President, Dr. Nagi Naganathan presented the award to Dr. Lund at the event. “I have called upon John several times during the last year to join us in presenting our geothermal expertise to important visitors to our campus, including Congressman Walden and others,” said President Naganathan. “John has always been very kind to participate and contribute as a great ambassador for Oregon Tech. It is a privilege, an honor, and certainly a true joy for me to recognize Dr. Lund with the inaugural Oregon Tech Ambassador award.”

Dr. Lund shared his passion for his work: “I came to OIT (then OTI) in 1967 as I wanted to teach at an

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institution that had a practical orientation to teaching and research,” he said. “I intended to stay only a short time, but I was so impressed with the students and faculty that I stayed 50 years and have enjoyed every minute of it. I also liked the opportunity to teach a variety of subjects that even included PE classes in cross-country skiing and hiking, as well as doing research that was practical, such as building test roads with cinders and pumice. Later, I was involved with geothermal energy testing downhole heat exchangers and founding the Geo-Heat Center. It has been a great and rewarding experience, and I still enjoy visiting campus on a weekly basis to give an occasional guest lecture and talk to faculty and students.”

Dr. Lund received a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from the University of Colorado, a Master of Engineering in Transportation Engineering from the University of California- Berkley, and a Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering from the University of Colorado. He is a registered professional engineer in Oregon, California and Colorado. His areas of interest include research, design and field work related to the direct uses and small-scale power generation from geothermal energy and geothermal heat pumps. In the field of civil engineering his interest lies in teaching, design and field work related to transportation and geothermal engineering.

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Photography, The Photo Ark and Great Visual Storytelling By: Gary Conkling

Joel Satore

has dedicated his life to capturing intimate, face-to-face portraits of animals that reflect the biodiversity of earth, as well as the dangers of animal extinction. His visual storytelling is strikingly artful, compelling to view and an example of how to show what you mean and feel in a way that connects with a wide audience. [ © Photo by Joel Satore/National Geographic] The power of photography is indisputable. The art of photography involves harnessing that power to tell a story.

There is no better visual storytelling example than Joel Sartore and The National Geographic’s Photo Ark. “Species are disappearing at an alarming rate, but together we can help. The National

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Geographic Photo Ark is using the power of photography to inspire people to help save species at risk before it’s too late.”

Photo Ark’s founder, Joel Sartore so far has photographed 8,485 different species of animals

in 40 countries. Each photograph is an intimate, face-to-face portrait of familiar and not-sofamiliar animals. His goal is to capture 12,000 species in zoos and wildlife sanctuaries to illustrate the earth’s fragile biodiversity.

Of his lifelong project, Sartore says, “I want people to care, to fall in love, to take action.”

Few storytellers are as devoted as Sartore, but his project provides useful lessons to any visual storyteller:

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Captivating Title

Photo Ark

sparks immediate recognition of the original ark and its mission to save animals during the great flood. The title taps into our memory banks of books with illustrations of animals scrambling up the ark’s plank. We know what we are in for before we see Sartore’s first photograph.

Photographs can evoke emotional responses, but people have to take notice of the photographs to have an emotional response. A captivating title is like a finger pointing in the right direction.

Visual Story Template Like any story, a visual story needs a plot and architecture that captures and directs the interest of viewers. Sartore’s plot centers on a staggering number of photographs with either a simple white or black background featuring an animal looking straight at the viewer. There is an inescapable connection, like looking at a photograph of a family member. The one-on-one scale of each photograph doesn’t favor larger animals over smaller ones such as insects. They all seem equal and equally important, which is the underlying theme of Sartore’s story.

Pictures with a purpose tell stories. Visual storytelling does not consist of random photographs strung together like a personal scrapbook. Visual storytelling requires forethought, consistency and competence. It requires a visual template that gives the photographs a harmonious meaning.

You can view 400 mesmerizing animal portraits in Joel Sartore’s photo album titled The Photo Ark .

Purchasing the book is one way to support Southern Oregon Business Journal

Sartore’s efforts to raise awareness of endangered species and what can be done to avoid animal extinction. https://www.joelsartore.com/gallery/ the-photo-ark/

Visual Depth Photographs can convey depth better than text, especially to contemporary eyes that skim over pages of words. Sartore’s photographs gleam with color. The animals are expressive. You can stare at the photographs and see details a casual glance would overlook. The photographs have a mesmerizing effect. The detailed photographs convey respect for the animals and make each one appear special and worth saving.

Visual depth results from quality photography, which is more possible because of ubiquitously affordable high-quality cameras, even on your cellphone. However, seeking out relevant detail demands commitment by the photographer to

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look for it and find ways to capture it. Committed photographers aren’t satisfied with the first shot they take. They look for fresh angles, the best light and shots that advance a storyline.

Tapping into Emotions as a Call to Action Photographs activate our sense of sight, which may be the most direct link to our emotional selves. Photographs may make us cry. They also can relieve tension by clearly showing how to accomplish a difficult task. Sartore’s Photo Ark is intended to inspire action to save endangered species by showing why they are worth saving.

His still-life photographs burst with emotional energy by putting viewers cheek-to-beak with animals Sartore illuminates as irreplaceable.

Photographs, photo essays and visual stories are almost pre-programmed to get an emotional response and can be molded into a call to action based on that emotional response. That’s why fundraising appeals for abandoned animals, disabled soldiers and malnourished children make their pitches through heart-tugging photography and videography. Words can only go so far in making people act. Photographs can make people go all the way.

Photographic Subplots

The Everyday Power of Photography Most of us won’t be on a lifelong photographic quest. But that doesn’t mean we can’t commit to a lifetime of using the power of photography to tell our stories, whether it’s in the form of visually compelling PowerPoints, origin stories or marketing campaigns.

Developing a visual story requires a different kind of thought process than sitting down at your computer and typing. But the thought process is actually a familiar one. It draws on our imagination and visual recollection. We need to see our story through our own eyes, then figure out how to tell it like we see it.

Even though sight is a very personal sensation, seeing a story can be a collaborative endeavor.

Multiple insights can enrich a visual template, add meaningful detail and infuse emotion. It is the embodiment of seeing a story through the eyes of your audience. It expands the realm of curiosity and possibility.

The excuse that “I’m not a photographer” is not true. If you can see, you are taking mental photographs all the time. You know what moves you. You may not know how to take great photographs, but don’t let that stop you from aspiring to tell a great visual story.

The Photo Ark conveys a significant subplot.

Sartore’s photographic gallery of species wouldn’t be possible if the shots were taken in the wild. By capturing animals, especially endangered ones, in zoos and wildlife sanctuaries, Sartore is underscoring the importance of their conservation efforts. One of his photographs is of a frog – the last of its species known to exist on earth. The frog would have slipped into oblivion if not for his photograph of it for posterity.

Photography can tell stories that go well beyond the pictures. The secondary stories can be subtle or blunt. They are often told as a story about the visual story.

This blog is essentially a story about a visual storyteller, his work and how his example can be emulated. 60 Minutes followed around Sartore to tell the story of how he engages with the animals he photographs.

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Gary Conkling is principal and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. But most importantly, he’s a die-hard Ducks fan. You can reach Gary at garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @GaryConkling.

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The Coastal Employment Base Differs from the Rest of Lane County

by Henry Fields October 22, 2018

The coastal area of Lane County – consisting of Florence, Dunes City, Mapleton, and the surrounding unincorporated areas – doesn’t have the same employment base as the rest of the county. The graphs compare average 2017 employment in coastal Lane County to the county overall.

Some industries are a much more important part of employment on the coast than for the county as a whole. Leisure and hospitality made up 28 percent of coastal employment, more than double the concentration for the county. Health care made up 19 percent and natural resources 5 percent of local employment, 2 percentage points and 3 percentage points more respectively.

than

the

county,

To make up the balance, certain industries played less of a role in coastal employment. Educational services made up 6 percent of local employment as compared with 10

percent overall. Two sectors were especially underrepresented: professional and business services was only 3 percent of coastal employment (9 percentage points less than the county) and manufacturing represented only 1 percent of coastal employment, versus 9 percent of total county employment.

Looking at local employment patterns may help employers understand their strengths and weaknesses. Manufacturers in western Lane County may have difficulty attracting a critical mass of workers without a labor pool shared with a number of similar businesses, but also might be able to compete favorably for employees in tourism sector industries that have seasonal swings. Similarly, workers should be able to learn more about what opportunities are most and least likely to be available in the local area.

BY: Henry Fields Workforce Analyst Lane County henry.l.fields@oregon.gov 1401 Willamette Street Eugene, OR 97401

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The Diversity of Local Government in Oregon

by Annette Shelton-Tiderman

Conversations about government employment are typically very opinionated – regardless of who is talking, the specific focus of the conversation, and where the discussion takes place! No matter which side of the fence people may be on, a county-level analysis of government employment offers insights for any discussion.

(streets, sewers, waste disposal, and snow removal), economic planning, and building and maintaining such recreational features as libraries, parks, athletic fields, and community centers. In Oregon, local government includes city and county governments as well as special districts (e.g., ports, transit systems, and regional governments

“To Promote the General Welfare” The role of government services is traditionally rooted in the concept that individual communities cannot provide all the basic goods or services that residents need. In other words, some needs are extensive or expensive enough that it takes a coordinated approach to address them. Specific areas of local government responsibility include education, public health, safety (police and fire protection), transportation services, public works

that are multi-jurisdictional councils). Adding to this broad range of services are constituent-created, special service districts designed to meet local needs for water control, irrigation, hospitals, people’s utilities, and vector control.

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Scrutinizing Oregon’s Largest Local Government Sectors Nearly 60 percent of Oregon’s local government

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employment falls within the educational services sector. This includes publicly supported elementary and secondary schools as well as community colleges and institutions of higher education.

Elementary and secondary schools account for 59 percent of statewide education employment and pay an average annual wage of $44,403. Oregon’s statewide colleges and universities employ nearly 29 percent of those associated with educational services ($70,353) and community or junior colleges account for 11 percent of employment ($36,851).

Other educational services make up the remaining positions.

Public administration, more than one out of five jobs, is the arena that most people associate with local government, e.g., city and county management, police and corrections, etc. The average salary, $62,961, ranges from those working in executive and legislative bodies ($58,996) to police ($84,493) and fire ($83,703) protection.

However, many communities rely on volunteer fire personnel to handle local fire protection services.

Public administration is divided into two smaller

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sectors. Executive, legislative, and general government makes up 51.2 percent of public administration employment. Justice, public order, and safety-related employment constitutes 28.9 percent of jobs. Under the heading of justice and related activities, police protection makes up one out of three jobs; correctional institutions account for 16.8 percent; and fire protection makes up 34.1 percent.

Other smaller duties involving legal counsel and parole offices account for the rest.

Other business activities in local government have a smaller footprint than education services and public administration. Trade, transportation, and utilities employment is in transportation, warehousing, and utilities ($57,613). Transit/ground passenger transport constitutes 55.5 percent of this sector ($44,523) and utilities accounts for 33.7 percent ($71,012). Health care and social assistance accounts for 4.3 percent of Oregon’s local government employment; leisure and hospitality is 2.7 percent; and professional and business services, of which two-thirds is in administration and waste services, accounts for 2.0 percent. Other activities

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such as libraries, repair and maintenance, cemeteries, and data processing-related services round out the remaining positions.

Oregon’s Diversity in Local Government Employment Approximately 75 percent of Oregon’s total employment hugs the I-5 corridor from the Portland area south into Eugene’s Lane County. When venturing away from the north-south interstate highway, it is not surprising to see the focus of local government employment change to meet the needs of smaller, rural communities.

Public education is the largest component of local government in Oregon (59.7%). The presence of large, higher education institutions substantially increases the footprint of educational services in select Oregon counties. Eastern Oregon University in Union County – some 260 miles east of the Portland Metro corridor – contributes nearly 70 percent to the county’s local government employment. In Lane County, 110 miles south of Portland and home to the University of Oregon, educational services make up 65.5 percent of the local government presence. At first glance, Washington County appears to have a substantially large educational component to its local government sector.

However, Oregon Health Sciences University (OHSU), which shows up as a large educational presence, has more jobs in health-related positions than in education (two out of three jobs).

Eastern Oregon, some Gorge communities, and southwestern Oregon are all home to special health care districts. Oregon legislation (ORS 440.320) enables those in sparsely populated regions to create special health care service districts.

Employment in these districts falls under the auspices of local government. As a result, Coos County’s three special health care districts shift the county’s health care-related employment to local government, meaning 35 percent of local government jobs are associated with providing health services.

Conclusion Overall, in Oregon, government makes up 15.2 percent of all payroll employment. Local government constitutes seven out of 10 government jobs; state government covers two out of 10; and federal government employment accounts for one out of 10 government jobs in the state. Rural areas have a

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larger government presence – one out of four payroll jobs in Coos and Union counties are in government. Although the distribution among federal, state, and local government varies depending on the county, local government dominates the public employment arena. The services provided, and the close accountability to local constituents, enable each part of Oregon to maintain its unique character while providing publicly supported educational, health care, public administrative, and other necessary services.

Ruth Miles Small Business Advocate, Office of the Secretary of State

https://sos.oregon.gov/Pages/meet-the-leadershipteam.aspx#ruth

Ruth works collaboratively with small businesses, nonprofits, state and local government to help streamline and improve Oregon’s business climate.

She brings a unique combination of public and private sector experience to her work in the Secretary’s Office of Small Business Assistance.

With 18 years of experience running small businesses, Ruth understands first-hand the challenges that entrepreneurs face. An avid kayaker, she comes to the Secretary of State after nine years in the legislative branch, where she helped constituents navigate the shifting waters and complexities of state government. https://sos.oregon.gov/business/Documents/business -guides/start-business-guide.pdf

The office of the Secretary of State is where you will find Ruth Miles. After meeting with her on several occasions it is evident her support of, and advocacy for, business in Oregon is her calling. She travels all over the state appearing at economic development meetings, speaking to small business owners and entrepreneurs eager to assist in any way she is able.

The team of people working with Ruth is an asset to us all. Be sure to have their contact information readily available. If they don’t have an answer for you, they will find someone who does.

Greg Henderson, Publisher, Southern Oregon Business Journal 20

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SMALL BIZ SURVIVAL THE SMALL TOWN AND R URAL BUSINESS RESOURCE

The small towns that survive will be the ones that are open to new ideas BY: BECKY MCCRAY

Can you make a small town more open to new ideas? Yes, and it may be the most important thing you can do.

Photo by Deb Brown, used by permission.

In a world driven by frenetic change, which small towns are going to thrive?

We know rural people play a key role in our society, so some small towns will have a future. Some small towns are innovative and progressive. Other small towns are stuck in the past.

Is there anything that tells us which towns will survive and prosper? The key factor is openness to new ideas.

Openness to new ideas is an advantage for rural areas addressing change, a Christian Science Monitor Southern Oregon Business Journal

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article said, pointing to work by Dr. David Peters, Iowa State University, and Dr. Linda Lobao, Ohio State University.

Small towns that are open to new ideas will be the best positioned to thrive no matter what change comes their way.

Great. Now what? How do we make our towns more open to new ideas? There are three parts to making your rural community more Idea Friendly.

Gather Your Crowd It doesn’t do any good if you are the only person in town open to new ideas. You’re going to need a crowd of people. The crowd here isn’t like a mob with pitchforks or a crowd of people watching a train wreck. It’s crowd sourcing the future of your town, a crowd of people with a positive intent.

You draw a crowd with a big vision. You start a public discussion about the kind of town you want to live in.

You create the public focal point for the kind of discussion you want to have.

You can take actions like talking to people about the big vision, posting on social networks, showing public appreciation for others, giving awards for people who try new things, and welcoming newcomers.

Build Connections

You turn a crowd into a capable network through building connections. You need to connect your people to each other so they become more than just a crowd, they become a network. In order to make your people even more capable, you connect them with resources and training.

You can take actions like holding networking events or backroom tours. You can help create shared workspaces like co-working, maker spaces, shared arts studios or business incubators, so participants get a chance to connect with others like them.

You can also build connections outside your local network. Bring in outside resource people to provide training or information. Connect aspiring artists or entrepreneurs with the resources that exist outside your town.

Take Small Steps

You and the crowd accomplish the vision through small steps. When you start by taking small steps you make it possible for more people to be involved, you cut down the scale of the vision from huge and scary to small and doable. You also make it easier to fail (and learn) at a small scale rather than crash and burn with a huge effort all at once.

You can use the Innovative Rural Business Models to take small steps to going into business. You can use the lighter, quicker, cheaper model to take small steps in governance and infrastructure.

Learn more about Idea Friendly Deb Brown and I are going to walk through all of this in detail in a web broadcast. We’ll give real world examples from small towns, and we’ll share practical steps you can put into action right away to make your town more Idea Friendly. Learn more about it at SaveYour.Town.

About Becky McCray Becky started Small Biz Survival in 2006 to share rural business and community building stories and ideas with other small town business people. She and her husband own a retail liquor store in Alva, Oklahoma, and a small cattle ranch nearby. Becky is an international speaker on small business.

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Founders Hall

A Year in The Making, Dedication of Two Major Additions @ KCC on October 2, 2018

Klamath Community College Lacey Jarrell, Public Information Officer

KCC Capital Campaign Exceeds Expectation (9/12/2017) KLAMATH FALLS - Klamath Community College is thrilled to announce that generous community support has propelled the “Completing the Transformation” campaign past its fundraising goal.

KCC launched the campaign in January, with a goal to raise $650,000 to purchase equipment for the college’s new Work Skills Technology Center

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(WSTC). When the campaign closed Aug. 31, 128 donors had contributed $760,057.

“KCC is about providing solutions, and we are grateful that the community is supporting us and our commitment to economic development,” said KCC President Dr. Roberto Gutierrez. “The initiatives that help KCC grow also support our community in developing a more talented and robust workforce.”

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The WSTC is a $5.6 million project within Phase II of the campus expansion intended to promote local workforce development. The center will house new and current technical programs and serve more than 500 students each year. The center will be a hub for high-wage, high-demand technical programs directly related to workforce needs in the local community and region.

Funds raised in the Completing the Transformation campaign are being used to purchase technology, such as synchronous equipment, computers, conference room equipment, manufacturing program equipment, and wireless network technology that will help students become workforce ready. The extra funds will be used to establish the college’s new Advanced Manufacturing Engineering Technology program.

“KCC is a five-star economic development opportunity for the Basin,” said campaign co - chair Steven Harper.

During the campaign, 19 donors -- including 10 donations of $25,000 or more -- provided contributions that allowed them to name spaces in the WSTC, such as study spaces, offices, and classrooms.

“I appreciate everyone who stepped up to support the campaign and economic development and workforce training in our area, as well as those who donated several hours of their own time to work toward reaching our goal,” said campaign co-chair Jim Bellet. “As KCC grows, I hope the county will continue to support the college in its workforce initiatives.”

Throughout the campaign, KCC hosted president tours in which community members toured campus to learn about advances KCC has made in developing specialized career-technical programs, such as diesel mechanics, computer science, and nursing.

“Where Have all the Young People Gone?”

Speaker Don Macke asked that question at the Klamath Chamber Economic Summit on September 13, 2018.

He also said that Klamath’s greatest export is its kids.

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That stings.

The opening of two impressive facilities at Klamath Community College may be an answer to that question. They’re right here and staying home or

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October 2, 2018 Ribbon Cutting

coming home after serving commitments in college or military or trainings in their chosen fields.

As a regional leader behind the vision and drive of President Gutierrez, KCC is creating a college-going culture in the region.

To support this college-going culture, KCC has embarked on the Klamath Promise with its K-12 partners by implementing a fifth-year high school program in 2013 and 2014 and establishing a blended K-12-to-college program in which students can earn college credit toward certificates and degrees as early as eighth grade.

Community leaders met in 1991 to discuss ideas about

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a campaign “to do something�.

Klamath Community College was created to fulfill a community vision for improved prosperity. Starting in 1991, a group of community leaders formulated a plan called the Klamath 2002 Vision Statement. The heart of the 2002 vision statement involved rallying community support for a new community college to improve jobs, the local economy, and the regional quality of life. On July 1, 1996 KCC became the seventeenth community college in Oregon Klamath Community College is an Affirmative Action / Equal Opportunity / Veteran / ADA institution embracing diversity. We encourage and welcome women, minority, veteran, and disabled candidates.

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Job Insights for the Fourth Quarter of 2018

By Refresh Leadership on October 30, 2018 in Executive Insights

Although 2018 is ending on a strong note for many businesses, recruiting and retention challenges will carry over into 2019.

To provide accurate and timely employment forecasts for business leaders, Express Employment Professionals International Headquarters conducts an ongoing Job Insights survey to track quarterly hiring trends across a wide range of industries.

Express surveyed business owners, decision makers, and human resource professionals about the overall hiring trends in their markets and how they impact their hiring decisions.

Insight: Business leaders predict an optimistic end to an overall strong year.

Going into the fourth quarter of 2018, the economy continues to strengthen as 48% of survey respondents expect an upward trend in employment activity in their markets—a 14% increase over first quarter of 2018. In fact, on average throughout the year, less than 9% of survey respondents said they expected a downward trend in employment activity.

Even more encouraging, 92% of companies do not plan to eliminate positions in key segments during the fourth quarter.

• • • •

Skilled Labor (Industrial): 30% Administrative/Office Clerical: 21% Accounting/Finance: 10% Engineering: 9%

Insight: The jobs are there, but access to top talent continues to plague businesses.

A recurring theme throughout 2018, there are jobs available but the competition among businesses to recruit workers with the right mix of skills and expertise needed to fill them is reaching a fever pitch. In fact, 65% of survey respondents reported a “lack of applicants with experience” as the primary reason their open jobs are not filled—a 37% increase over first quarter of 2018. Only 16% of survey respondents said all their positions are filled.

According to the survey, top reasons jobs go unfilled include: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Lack of applicants with experience – 65% Lack of applicants in general – 65% Lack of applicants with hard skills – 43% Lack of applicants with soft skills – 27% Pay is not competitive – 24%

The top 5 segments hiring in the fourth quarter of 2018 include:

Insight: Company policies may need to evolve to address increased legalization of marijuana.

•

With the increasing legalization of marijuana in some

General Labor (Industrial): 37%

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form in the U.S. and nationwide legalization in Canada set to take effect on Oct. 17, 2018, companies are being forced to reevaluate their stance on drug use. Although many companies will maintain a zero-tolerance policy, in a tight labor market, reevaluating policies for some types of positions may become necessary. According to the survey, 83% of companies exclude job applicants who do not pass a drug test, regardless of position or qualifications.

Survey participants weighed in with their own thoughts about their drug-related employment policies, including:

Company drivers who fail drug tests are suspended and given the option to enter into a counseling program. Upon successful completion of the program, the driver earns a certificate and then can start working again while continuing to be required to pass periodic drug tests.

It is important for employees to be drug free in our industry. There are many dangers to the employee and or their co-workers.

The only drug we would possibly allow is marijuana.

Any others, we would not hire the applicant.

Depends on the situation; if the drug is for medical reasons, most jobs would still be open.

We may consider hiring someone who failed a drug test for an office position without driving responsibilities, depending on the drug and the area where they work.

Be sure to subscribe to our RSS feed - powered by Express Employment Professionals!

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https://elimindset.com/entrepreneurial-learning/what-is-mindset/

Develop an entrepreneurial mindset with entrepreneurial learning experiences What is Mindset?

We all have a mindset, yet often we are not consciously aware of it or the profound effect it has on our lives. Our mindset is the underlying mechanism that can expose opportunities and ignite our ambition, engaging our faculties in ways that enable us to flourish and thrive. Yet, our mindset can also blind us to opportunities and hinder our ability to learn and grow, keeping us tethered to familiar, yet unproductive patterns of thought and action.

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have compelling goals that keep them futurefocused and intrinsically motivated, driving them to be self-directed, action-oriented, and highly engaged;

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have an optimistic interpretation of adverse events and see problems as potential opportunities, becoming highly resilient, resourceful, and solution-oriented even within highly uncertain, resource constrained environments;

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be lifelong knowledge seekers with a focus on micro-experiments as learning opportunities to test ideas, cultivating curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking;

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display a high-level of reliability, understanding that following through on simple solutions can lead to unforeseen opportunity;

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have a humanistic outlook, being other-focused and understanding that one creates value by looking to solve problems for others; and

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surround themselves with an intentional community of positive influence and critical guidance

So, what is an entrepreneurial mindset?

A mindset is a cognitive belief system consisting of interrelated beliefs, assumptions, and knowledge that we use to process information, inform our decisions, and guide our behavior.

An entrepreneurial mindset is a specific set of beliefs, knowledge, and thought processes that drives entrepreneurial behavior. Those with an entrepreneurial mindset tend to:

•

believe in their ability to succeed and influence their own outcomes, empowering them to take ownership of their lives;

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It’s important to note that successful entrepreneurs

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are often touted as exceptional individuals; a rare breed who seem to have been born with unique hereditary traits. But, the entrepreneurial mindset is most often acquired implicitly without conscious effort or awareness, which may explain why it often appears to be a dispositional trait, even though it is not.

An entrepreneurial mindset can be developed and enhanced through entrepreneurial experiences. And to cultivate the entrepreneurial mindset, we must create entrepreneurial learning experiences within our classrooms, organizations, and communities.

The Entrepreneurial Learning Initiative (ELI) is a global thought leader dedicated to expanding human potential through entrepreneurial mindset education.

Entrepreneurship is more than an academic discipline and reaches far beyond the concept of traditional business creation and small business management. Entrepreneurship is a mindset; a framework for thinking and acting that can empower anyone to succeed. And, in today’s rapidly changing, highly-complex world, the need for entrepreneurial thinkers at all levels of society has never been greater.

In effect, an entrepreneurial mindset can empower ordinary people to accomplish extraordinary things.

8631 Tyler Blvd Mentor, Ohio 44060 440-255-8861

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Where Have the Adventurers Gone? Recent Trends in Oregon Entrepreneurship By: Henry Fields

If you’ve ever struggled to spell “entrepreneur” you might know that it’s a term borrowed from French.

It’s too bad that an early English-language equivalent, “adventurer,” didn’t catch on. The term perfectly captures the swashbuckling, eccentric personality needed to start a business (and it’s easier to spell).

Though English needed the loanword, the concept requires no translation: entrepreneurship makes up an essential part of the American dream. But despite its cultural importance, entrepreneurial activity in Oregon and the nation is less common than it used to be: fewer Americans are starting a

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business now than a generation ago.

In this article I’ll look at several causes for this trend and try to explain what’s happening to Oregon’s entrepreneurs – or adventurers, if you prefer.

The Entrepreneur Gap in Oregon The most recent data on business starts from Oregon is from 2014, which is a few steps behind where the economy is today. Still, as is the case nationally, we can see that the share of young firms in Oregon has declined significantly in the last few decades.

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Since 1990, the percentage of startups – firms founded in the previous five years –decreased by 15 percentage points, from 46 percent of firms to 31 percent. The share of firms 11 years and older increased by the same amount, from 35 percent of firms to 50 percent.

The recession accelerated a long-term trend of declining entrepreneurship rates. In the years 2009 through 2011, during the height of the recession, the total number of firms in Oregon declined. That had a disproportionate impact on startups, as older businesses were better positioned to survive and new businesses were less likely to start during the lean years.

Things have started to improve since the recession, but new business formation still hasn’t kept pace with population growth in Oregon. Despite a 40 percent increase in population, fewer total companies were formed in 2014 than 25 years earlier.

The number of startup firms per capita, the yellow line in the graph below, declined by one-third during this period.

Is It Just a Matter of Time?

At first glance, it might seem that a startup decline is just a temporary effect of the recession. Business

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formation and survival did take a big hit in the recession that, even with a long-running economic recovery, has left us with relatively few new firms.

The recession can’t explain everything, though.

New firm formation from 1990 to 2008, before the recession set in, still showed a slowdown relative to population growth. In addition, Oregon saw a reduction in the percentage of workers employed at startups well before the recession, which you can see in the graph below. This trend occurred in all regions of the state.

Changing Demographics and Finances Play Their Part Oregon’s population is aging and diversifying, as is the nation’s. These demographic trends could be impacting entrepreneurial activity.

Though Oregon is less diverse than the nation as a whole, it is diversifying more rapidly, so the barriers faced by the fastest-growing parts of Oregon’s population may be contributing to gaps in business ownership. These gaps cost the economy.

Kauffman estimates that “if minorities started and owned businesses at the same rate as nonminorities do, the United States would have more than 1 million additional employer businesses ands

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much as an extra 9.5 million jobs in the economy, all else being equal.”

might make starting a business more difficult or less appealing than it used to be.

Age also affects startup rates. The two largest generations in the U.S. are the baby boomers, many of whom are reaching retirement age, and millennials, who are in their 20s and 30s.

For example, the drop in entrepreneurship hasn’t been equally felt across sectors, which could have something to do with the differences in how these industries have evolved over time. Nationally, new construction, retail, and manufacturing firms per capita each dropped more than 80 percent between 1977 and 2014. New firms in services declined by only 23 percent. It may be easier to found a services business, which can easily market and contact customers through the Internet, in comparison with a brick and mortar retail store, which competes with giant online retailers, or a manufacturing facility, which requires significant capital investment.

The Portland State University Population Research Center projects that one out of four Oregonians will be age 65 and older by 2030, up from 17 percent in 2015. In general, we’d expect an aging population to negatively impact entrepreneurship – most retirees are not eager to begin a punishing new career as a business owner. However, more entrepreneurial activity is possible among retirees who live longer, healthier lives.

Young people are less likely to start a business today than in previous generations. Economic factors such as less wealth, savings, and instability caused by starting careers during the Great Recession have an impact on entrepreneurial interest. The Economic Innovation Group reported that despite high levels of admiration for entrepreneurship – nearly 80 percent of millennials consider entrepreneurs successful – young people view financial barriers as the largest impediment to opening their own business.

Would-be entrepreneurs of all ages increasingly face challenging financial conditions. The explosion of student loan debt may make debtholders more reluctant to strike out on their own. The Small Business Administration found that self-employment decreased as student debt burdens increased among young families.

Losing out on employer-provided health insurance could also make it riskier to gamble on a business venture. Research by Fairlie, Kapur, and Gates (2010) showed a statistically significant impact on entrepreneurship rates of health insurance tied to employment, observable by comparing differences between groups immediately before and after qualifying for Medicare and those with access to spousal coverage.

The Role of Structural Effects It is possible that structural changes to the economy have driven down entrepreneurship rates, though these explanations are difficult to evaluate.

Economic, regulatory or competitive pressures

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There are many more explanations for why entrepreneurship could be lagging than I have space to go into here. In general, there doesn’t seem to be an easy answer to why Oregonians and Americans aren’t starting businesses at the rates they used to. Each of the above factors plays some role, but none explains all of the change.

Why It Matters A lack of entrepreneurship could be concerning for the Oregon economy, even as overall employment continues to grow.

New business formation is not only a part of the American dream, but also an important element of productivity, innovation, and net job growth in the economy.

Sometimes entrepreneurs develop new business ideas that change the world. Tech companies like Facebook and Apple have reached the heights of the global economy from starts in dorm rooms and garages.

Not every entrepreneur fundamentally changes the economy. More often, entrepreneurship promotes local economic vitality and stability by building companies that are invested in, and products of, the community. Local ownership and innovation are an important ingredient for a healthy regional economy in an economically uncertain world.

In other words, to promote economic growth and local dynamism, it looks like Oregon could use a few more adventurers.

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Markets Rattling Investors, Fed Still Calm OCTOBER 29, 2018

Equity market turmoil continued throughout last week, raising fresh questions about the Fed’s policy path. I don’t believe that Powell & Co. will panic just yet. I suspect they will take a broad view of incoming data and financial indicators and conclude they have little reason to alter their policy path. This will obviously be somewhat disconcerting for already rattled investors.

Start with the GDP report. It was generally upbeat with second quarter growth coming in at 3.5%, ahead of expectations for a 3.3% gain. Consumer spending grew at a solid 4% pace. No wonder we are seeing strong confidence numbers. Nothing makes Americans happier than spending, and when they can, they do – in three of the last four quarters, spending growth has registered at 3.8% or higher. With such a sustained, solid pace, I think the Fed would interpret any consumption slowing in the fourth quarter as temporary.

Inventory build contributed 2.1 percentage points to growth, while net exports subtracted 1.78 percentage points. I think we have two things going on here. First, there may have been some inventory building to get ahead of expected tariffs. That would be offsetting – counting as a plus via inventories and a negative via imports. These factors would likely fade out in the fourth quarter. But there was also a -0.45 percentage point contribution from exports, arguably attributable to some mixture slower global growth, retaliatory tariffs, and a stronger dollar. We may be waiting on the fourth quarter to see how all of these factors play out.

A more worrisome aspect in the report was the soft read on nonresidential investment, which contributed a meager 0.12 percentage points, the worst result since the final quarter of 2016.

Couple that with the fading core manufacturing orders and you can tell a story that the Trump tax cut boom is fading which – especially when combined with uncertainty created by President Trump’s trade policy – suggests that maybe the capital equipment resurgence is coming to an end.

Timothy A. Duy Senior Director, Oregon Economic Forum Professor of Practice Department of Economics University of Oregon Eugene, OR 97403-1285 duy@uoregon.edu

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Health Tips

Arthritis Pain Relief Tips to help manage arthritis pain Are you or someone you know suffering from arthritis or a related condition? Many people accept chronic joint pain as a normal part of life, often assuming nothing can be done, but there is good news – options are available locally to help relieve your pain by.

While there’s no quick fix for arthritis, there are several treatment options that may help manage your pain.

Everyone’s experience with arthritis is different. For effective treatment, it’s important for an orthopedic specialist to identify the root of your pain to determine if you have arthritis or another condition.

About one out of every five US adults is affected by arthritis, yet because it is complex, many still don’t understand the condition. Arthritis is an informal term that refers to the more than 100 different types of joint conditions and diseases. Arthritis can affect anyone, regardless of age. The Centers for Disease and Control reports more than 50 million adults and 300,000 children in the United States have some type of doctordiagnosed arthritis.

• •

Hallmark symptoms of arthritis include aching, stiffness and swelling in or around the joints and decreased range of motion. Pain can come and go or be ongoing.

Symptoms may only occur when moving or after periods of inactivity. If symptoms go unmanaged, arthritis can result in difficulty performing daily activities like bending down, walking and climbing stairs. For some types of arthritis, other symptoms include fatigue, a poor appetite and even fever.

Living with chronic joint pain can seem overwhelming.

However, there are local treatment options available to help you manage your pain and live life to the fullest.

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If you are or have been diagnosed with arthritis, try these tips to help manage and reduce inflammation.

• • •

Hot and cold therapy Low-impact exercise (like water aerobics, walking and stretching) Massage joints with olive oil Meditation Exercise

Making a few lifestyle changes, like losing weight and making healthy eating choices can yield great relief for arthritis pain too. Extra weight plays a big impact on joints by adding more pressure – especially on the knees, hips and feet. Start exploring different arthritis treatment options to find what works best for you.

CHI Mercy Health Mercy Medical Center 2700 NW Stewart Parkway Roseburg, Oregon 97471 541.673.0611 https://www.chimercyhealth.com/new-stride-tips.html

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