May 1st 2016

Oregon Ranks in the Top 10 for Entrepreneurs

Oregon Clean Electricity and Coal Transition Plan Becomes Law Touring Coos Bay

Caldera

Brewing Company

Leadership Decision Making

A Few Words From Greg:

By now you’ve noticed the quality of the content in each issue of the Southern Oregon Business Journal.

Our intent is to always make it that way, though an occasional folksy bit or local event may stray from the high standards of The New Yorker or Forbes. We are as local as the content allows us to be, and plan to improve with every issue.

Our goal is perfection with the knowledge that it will never be completely achieved. By having perfection in mind we trust that our humility will be retained as we are reminded that there is always room for improvement.

This issue of the journal includes an impressive article, “Leadership Decision Making” by Dr. Hossein Arsham, Teaching Professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School. It is longer than most of the journal’s articles, but well worth the read.

We intentionally diversify the subject matter in each issue of the journal in order to provide material of interest to anyone who might be scanning the table of contents. If one article is of minimal interest to you can take comfort in knowing that there is another that will be right up your alley.

In selecting the articles for the journal we attempt to stay away from news items that you see in community bulletins or membership newsletters of the chamber or professional organizations. They do an excellent job of sharing personal interest stories and local calendars. There’s no need for us to take part in reinventing that wheel.

Now that spring is here we all have things to do that have been waiting for improved weather. May every day bring new and memorable experiences for you.

Take care, Greg Henderson, Publisher greg@southernoregonbusiness.com Southern Oregon Business Journal, 703 Divot Loop, Sutherlin, Oregon 97479 www.southernoregonbusiness.com 1

Contents

May 1st , 2016

featured story 10 Leadership Decision Making

features

Barry Robinson General Manager •••••

3 Caldera Brewing Company

barry@ameri-title.com (541) 672-6651 Fax: (541) 672-5793

5 Oregon Ranks In The Top 10 For Entrepreneurs 8 Worksource Oregon: Employer Highlights 15 Oregon Clean Electricity & Coal Transition Plan Becomes Law 17 The Marshmallow Test 19 Touring Coos Bay

22 Why Is Our Trade Balance So Important?

25 Retirement: How Do I Move Forward With An Exit Strategy?

AmeriTitle is proud to announce the availability of ACH capabilities for both our Borrowers and Lenders. ACH payment handling will eliminate delays in mail and lost checks allowing us to provide a more efficient service to you.

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sponsors 2 Ameri-Title 18 Cardinal Services, Inc. 23 Gary Leif

www.SouthernOregonBusiness.com

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Caldera Brewing Company

A leader among small businesses

Located in Ashland, Oregon,

Caldera Brewing Company is dedicated to producing uncompromised quality ales, lagers, sodas and cuisine. In 2005, Caldera became the first craft brewery on the West Coast to brew and can its own beer, helping to start a revolution. Today, six of Caldera's most popular beers are available in cans, with several more currently available in 22 oz bottles, and there's more on the way.

We Like Everything Green: Caldera has been dedicated to being green before green was cool. We strive to reuse or recycle anything we can.

Caldera's tap handles are made from scrap ash hardwood from Sawyer Paddles & Oars, located in Talent, Oregon All of Caldera's spent grain, hops, yeast and filter sheets are composted to make rich soil Our used specialty grain bags go to employees for garbage bags, and are used by our spent grain guy to package his soil. Caldera is assisting the City of Ashland in making sandbags with the specialty grain bags as well.

The hop foil pouches are re-used to package soil.

Caldera re-uses hop boxes to cover full can pallets to keep layers of cans clean for shipping. All broken pallets are picked up by the pallet company for rebuilding.

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Caldera was the first craft brewery on the West Coast to brew and can its own beer, beginning in 2005. Aluminum cans are 100% recyclable and weigh less than glass which reduces shipping costs which reduces fuel usage.

Building Design: Low water plants for landscaping reduces water usage Passive solar through daylight windows in cupola of building reduces electricity. Low energy lighting throughout building. Coolers have the most efficient insulation possible. Kitchen cooler strip curtains maintain cooler temperature during opening and closing of doors. Caldera's HVAC system draws cool air into building in the summer Mini splits are used in offices to reduce power consumption.

Brewery Design: Hot liquor tank reuses heat exchanged water for the next brew. Cold liquor tank uses 38째 F water instead of City water which averages 70째 F, thus saving water. Cool Fit glycol piping is the most efficient piping made which saves electricity as the chiller runs less. Caldera uses steam to power all three kettles (30 bbl Brew House Kettle, 10 bbl Brew House, 10 bbl Soda Kettle) instead of natural gas, which is more efficient and environmentally friendly.

Restaurant: Water is served upon request to conserve our watershed Cooking oil is recycled into biofuel. We source local and organic ingredients whenever possible. Food scraps are composted.

“In 2010, due to the huge increase in demand for Caldera's internationally award winning craft beers, we broke ground at our new facility, a 30 bbl capacity brewhouse and restaurant. Here, Caldera's new canning line was installed, streamlining the packaging process with a capacity of 1,200 cans per minute. This allows for full time production of Caldera's flagship beers, while also allowing for the continued creation of experimental beers using Caldera's old 10 bbl system, which was moved from our old location just down the street. This arrangement allows Caldera to continue producing its line of well known beers, as well as to continue to experiment, a vital process necessary for an innovative craft brewery, as well as for the brewers themselves.

In addition to the 10 bbl system, the extra room at our new facility also allows to store bourbon barrels, in which several of our most popular beers, as well as some brand new ones, are now aged. Look for these specialty beers at a location near you, or if you happen to be in the neighborhood, c'mon down and sample to your heart's content.”

Registered as Caldera Brewing Company in March of 1996 by James Mills, its president, the owners of Caldera Brewing in Ashland, Oregon has become a leader in entrepreneurial example.

Read about Caldera and see the interview with Jim Mills at http://brewpublic.com/oregon-beer/interview-with-calderas-jim-mills/ 4

Oregon Ranks in the Top 10 for Entrepreneurs but Regulatory Burdens Limit Startup Success Edward L. Glaeser is a professor of economics at Harvard University, a City Journal contributing editor, and a Manhattan Institute senior fellow

“The U.S. Census’s Business Dynamics Statistics program shows definitively that entrepreneurs’ fledgling companies are the country’s jobs engine. Consider a good year, 2005, when American firms added 2.15 million new jobs to the economy. Most kinds of companies didn’t contribute to that growth; firms between six and ten years old, for example, added about 1.7 million new jobs but destroyed more than 2 million through contractions or closings, for a net job loss of more than 350,000. In almost every age group, job destruction exceeded job creation. The exceptions were two types of firms: the very old and the very young. Firms over 26 years old added slightly fewer than 100,000 jobs, on net, while brand-new firms added more than 3 million.

Or look at the period from 1996 to 2008. Every year, the new firms added more than 2.9 million jobs, on net; every year except 2000 and 2006, the other firms, considered as a whole, destroyed jobs, on net. Similarly, the boom of the 1980s was led by job creation from new firms. Even in 2009, at the bottom of the recession, new firms managed to add more than 2.3 million new jobs—though those job gains were overwhelmed by the 7 million jobs lost by older firms. The lesson here: older firms generally shrink, while new firms erupt, hire new workers, and make up for the older firms’ job losses.”

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State of Entrepreneurship

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Revisit the Regulatory Environment – A Place to Begin Promotion Beyond the specific measures localities may enact to promote entrepreneurship, it is important to understand that the regulations and amenities in the local environment, more generally, can have a tremendous influence on starting businesses and allowing them to be successful. The suggestions below are only a few of the arenas that have an impact on entrepreneurship, offering policymakers a place to start when they consider improvements to their region.

• Reexamine professional and occupational licensing.

Nearly one-third of American workers are required to have a government-issued license to do their jobs. Occupational licensing can act as a barrier to entrepreneurs seeking to bring new innovations and business models to market. While licensing is meant to ensure quality, other policy options exist that protect public health and safety, while fostering competition and new-business creation.

• Simplify tax codes and payment systems. Taxes matter, but what entrepreneurs are most concerned about is tax complexity. Simplifying tax codes and payment systems so they are easier to understand will relieve what many entrepreneurs feel is a burden on them and their businesses. For instance, different sales tax rates by different cities and counties, and different rules about taxing within the metropolitan area are frequently cited as barriers by entrepreneurs.

• Rethink non-compete agreements. Many entrepreneurs have prior industry experience that they leverage to create new companies. Yet, if potential entrepreneurs are restricted by employee non-compete agreements, their ability to start companies will be hindered. The barriers erected by non-compete agreements can be mitigated by changes to state law governing these employment arrangements.

• Streamline zoning approval processes and offer clear guidelines. Land-use and zoning regulations are consistently reported as significant concerns of entrepreneurs.

Surveys consistently find that business owners identified zoning, land use, or run-off as the type of rules that create the greatest difficulty for them, a greater percentage than regulations related to environmental or hazardous materials. This concern is likely significant because about half of all entrepreneurs start their firms within their own homes, while only 40 percent rent or lease space.

Blanket deregulation in zoning is hardly the answer, however. Regardless of the purpose of the zoning,

whether it be exclusionary, anti-growth, or environmental, this decision should ultimately be made by local residents. One immediate action cities can take is to establish transparent criteria for zoning approvals and to institute quick decision making processes by local boards. Both are crucial to startups, especially those in the earliest stages.

Cumbersome and long decision-making processes can function as a de facto denial and are detrimental to entrepreneurs who have business ideas, operating cash, and customers, but must wait months to find out where they can locate their businesses.

• Welcome immigrants. Immigrants have been nearly twice as likely as native-born Americans to start businesses.

Initially, this activity was thought to be limited to lowskill and low-entry sectors, such as grocery shops, restaurants, and the provision of basic services. More recent studies, however, indicate that immigrants also are more entrepreneurial in high-skill, high-tech sectors.

Indeed, 52 percent of key founders of high-tech firms in Silicon Valley were immigrants.

While the federal government is responsible for larger immigration policy issues such as visas and citizenship, local governments can create a welcome environment for all immigrants and embrace ethnic diversity in order to attract job-creating immigrant entrepreneurs. Immigrants are increasingly settling in cities and neighborhoods outside large port cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco that traditionally functioned as gateway cities. Since the 1990s, immigrants increasingly have settled directly into suburbs, smaller metropolitan areas, and even rural towns.

• Set goals and track your progress. Doing is hardly enough, and you need to see how well you are doing.

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Employer Highlights Employers are the primary customers of Work-

Source—the demand side of the system that must drive how services are developed and delivered.

This section highlights three key discussions with employers; Understanding the workforce trends they are experiencing, how those trends translate into value-added services, and where WorkSource resources could be allocated or deployed to best meet with value.

Employer trends & concerns common throughout the state Many applicants lack basic skills: Employers report basic skills are absent from a wide range of candidates from entry-level positions to college graduates. Writing and communication skills are among the most common missing skills, along with basic and applied math such as the ability to read a tape measure or making change from a sales transaction.

Applicants are missing other base skills critical to many Oregon industries. Employers consider customer service, basic knowledge of computers and common office software, and familiarity with standard workplace protocols (appropriate attire, punctuality, etc.) as basic skills. They observe older applicants often lack computer skills and have difficulty marketing their skills or experience.

Employers also notice significant intergenerational workplace challenges with regards to workplace expectations, especially between millennials and baby-boomers. This suggests a need to better develop the talent of management in addressing those issues effectively.

Applicants lack technical and vocational skills. Employers in a wide array of industries, especially trades and manufacturing, note a significant gap in vocational and technical skills from previous generations. This included a range of skills from being able to read

a tape measure or instrument panel to having basic mechanical skills or understanding of what constitutes quality control.

Problem-solving skills that are valuable in many occupations, including college degreed jobs, are also missing. Businesses noted a lack in vocational education, statewide and nationally, and the focus on students to be college bound has hurt the competitiveness of many businesses, especially those in rural communities.

Employers are seeing far less early work experience and work readiness skills among job applicants under age 25. Applicants under 25 years of age tend to have fewer work experiences than in previous generations.

Employers are seeing more college graduates with low work readiness skills, even in simple matters such as showing up on time.

Employers are experiencing lower quality in younger employees’ work and/or an attitude of “just doing enough to get by.” They perceive the education system as not including job readiness as an important aspect of learning.

Use of staffing agencies and temp-to-hire continue to rise. Because of a lower overall quality of applicants, many employers are using staffing services to find employees through temp-to-hire situations where potential new hires are tested for skills and fit with The Future of WorkSource: Statewide Report and Summary 2 the workplace.

While this is more expensive for employers on a per person basis, it saves them money in the long run due to the high percent of temps that do not make it through the trial period. If they do fit, however, turnover is greatly reduced and employers are more willing to make investments in training.

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Employers rely heavily on different forms of work-based training In addition to using temp-to-hire as a way to find employees with the right mix of skills, employers noted they are doing more basic skill training just to bring a new hire to an entry-level skill set. This basic training, combined with business or skill specific training means the return on training investment (training ROI) continues to take longer before a new employee is productive.

Once an employee is up to speed, employers prefer to promote from within to maintain this investment. This results in a high demand and preference for incumbent worker training to “skill-up” existing employees to replace workers that have either left or retired. Employers are struggling to use apprenticeship programs.

face additional challenges in finding, training and retaining workers. These challenges include: A high portion of seasonal jobs means many workers hold multiple jobs in a given year and rely on temporary seasonal unemployment to make it through leaner parts of the work year.

Geographically disbursed workforce and employers often mean longer commute times, even for lower-wage jobs.

Combined with seasonal industries, transportation costs are often a significant barrier to keeping employees. Employers having to go outside the region to find professional, technical and management level positions.

Even after casting a wide net, recruiting mid to high-level occupations to rural communities is difficult, especially when there is a trailing spouse or partner who would also need employment. Often compensation packages are more costly and retention rates are low. A lack of a local qualified workforce encourages companies to steal good The recession and pressures to lean operations have left employees from one another—despite knowing this is not many companies, especially trades and manufacturing, without adequate journey level staff to take on the num- good for the long term regional economy. Drug use, espeber of apprentices that they need. Furthermore, a signif- cially methamphetamine, was noted as serious problem in icant number of businesses reported that age restrictions eastern and southern Oregon with many applicants failing on the use of equipment prevented them from attracting drug testing. The ability to address this issue as part of an students into apprenticeships or pre-apprentice training. overall employment strategy will be critical.

Employers are concerned with retirement and succession planning.

As the economy improves, employers are starting to see more of their older employees consider retirement.

With little job growth over the past five years, there are fewer people in the pipeline to move up within the organization and recruitment from the outside is costly or difficult. This is especially a concern with smaller and rural businesses.

Structural cliffs in government assistance hurt lower income workers. Employers in all regions commented that unemployment insurance payments and wraparound assistance such as food stamps or transportation assistance were an “all or nothing” program making it difficult for job seekers to take an entry-level job and risk losing the support they needed as they transitioned back into work. This meant that qualified applicants often declined jobs reducing the applicant pool even further for employers.

Additional Rural Trends: Employers in rural regions 9

www.worksourceoregon.org

Leadership Decision Making

"Somewhere along the line of development we discover what we really are, and then we make our real decision for which we are responsible. Make that decision primarily for yourself because you can never really live anyone else's life."

-- Eleanor RooseveltÂ

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Just being worried about making serious decisions is like sitting on a rocking chair--it gives you something to do I was just thinking: but doesn't get you anywhere. Therefore worrying about making a decision is a waste of time. A decision is some- • Is it thinkable? Is your problem thinkable? thing you have the capability of changing. Anything else is a fact of life.

• Is it my business? Is it really necessary for you to think about it? It seems like one of the hardest lesThinkable Decisions and the sons to be learned in life is where your business ends and somebody else's begins. The moment a question Economy of Strategic Thinking comes to your mind, see yourself mentally taking What do artists do? They make models of reality that hold of it and disposing of it. In that moment is are more beautiful than reality itself in order to make your choice made. You learn to become the decider and not the vacillator. our existence bearable. However, as Michelangelo once said, "A man paints with his brains and not with his hands." Moreover, a modeler of reality is an artist • Do you have enough explicit information to with constraints. A Japanese proverb says, "Thinking start your strategic thinking? Information can be without action is a daydream. Action without think- classified as explicit and tacit forms. The explicit ing is a nightmare." Therefore, there are two kinds of information can be explained in structured form, while tacit information is inconsistent and fuzzy to failures: those who thought and never did and those explain. A good thinking resides in the capacity for who did and never thought. The trouble with most evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting people is that they think with their hopes or fears or information. wishes rather than with their minds.

Speechless thought moves over the fibers of our brain like water over the face of the deep. That we think, we know because we think. That we are, we know because we think; but what is it to think? And what is it to know that we think? What happens when you let your mind wander? When human mind has nothing specific to think about, it becomes chaotic, flitting from one thought to another in a random way. That's why thinkers are more often in a good mood while thinking than they are in their free time.

When one faces a problem, one must always ask whether the problem is thinkable. Not every idea or concept is thinkable. Moreover, every thinkable idea deserves its own duration of time in your mind.

Our senses furnish the mind only with materials of information; it is our thinking that converts information we receive to our useful knowledge for decision making. Decision-making is described as the economy of thinking. There are six steps that must be considered in making a good decision. The steps are as follows: 11

• How long should I think about it? The key is in not "spending" time, but in "investing" it. Thinking does not stay in some minds very long because unfortunately they do not like solitary confinement that is needed.

Decision does not just happen; it takes reflection and thought. Reflection time must be built into the decision process allowing ample time to ponder and rethink. For many people, unfortunately, the expectation that responding immediately is far more important than responding thoughtfully for many.

• Implementation - taking action. Thinking without action is daydreaming. To think too long about doing a thing often becomes its undoing.

• Monitoring my action. Since everything changes, to be in control of my problem I have to adapt and update my thinking. The art of life is a constant readjustment to our situation.

Following the above thinking process with its many loops, then it is very likely that good ideas spring into being in response to your analytical probing.

This analytical thinking is the most powerful tool for the mind. Without this, recurrence relation will keep coming back to your mind to haunt you.

Mind maintains, and holds whatever has been put on it during the last few minutes. It holds and works on it, unless we replace by something new. Therefore, in order not to think about what is not worthy one must start thinking about something else immediately. That is the hygiene for the mind.

The crux is noticed in Alices' Adventures in Wonderland: " ' How am I to get in?' asked Alice again, in a louder tone. 'Are you to get in at all?' said the Footman, 'That's the first question, you know.' " Remember that most people waste most of their time every day majoring in minors. Time is of no account with great thoughts. Obviously, the basic problem is this: Law firms, which bill by the hour, are more profitable when less efficient. As Goethe said, "Things, which matter most, must never be at the mercy of things which matter least." Time is the scarcest resource and unless it is managed nothing else can be managed.

If you work on a nonexistent problem there are much fewer obstacles to overcome. To accomplish something noteworthy, we should look to do something worth the effort unless we are trying to relax.

In times of leisure, nonexistent problems usually need to be sought out!

Here is an example of an unthinkable question/ problem. Is there an after life? This question is not thinkable. You must think about it as much as you think about "life before life." We can ask primal questions, but we can never stand near the beginning or the end.

In other cases, the questions are thinkable, however, one "wishes" not even raise any doubt about them that invoke strategic thinking. These cases include, e.g.,

our deepest beliefs. And in many cases, one even deliberately changes the perception of the problem in order that it suits ones preconceived desirable decision. This is unfortunate, but people lie much more to themselves than to others.

I studied the lives of relatively great men and famous women, and I found that the men and women who got to the top were those who did the jobs they had in hand, with everything they had of energy and enthusiasm and hard work.

On the duration of the strategic thinking, Albert Einstein said, "I think and think for months and years, ninety-nine times, the conclusion is false. The hundredth time I am right. It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer."

As a general rule for strategic thinking, if you cannot describe in writing to be understood by someone else about your decision problem and what you are doing as a process about it, then you do not know what you are doing. The best place to make a decision is on paper.

Being able to control the thought process is the hardest of all, and it takes discipline and training. One must develop the ability to engage in a consecutive, and a well-focused strategic thinking for a predetermined limited time in order to produce a solution to a given well defined problem. It is not that things will necessarily go wrong (Murphy's Law), but rather that they will take so much more time and effort than you think, if they are not to.

The cardinal aim is to uncover the underlying logical structure of the decision problem by means of a mathematical model. All branches of human knowledge are moving towards scientific representation. These include all the --logy subjects, such as sociology, and psychology, etc., usually being taught at our liberal art and humanity colleges. Nowadays, one expects a deeper understanding from studying sociometric, psychometric, and econometric, etc.

Students often ask me if, as a thinker, I was rational or creative. Left-brained or right-brained. I consider it, and ask in reply, do I have to choose? Is it possible to be both?

I did not think I could afford to discriminate.

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You want to be good at designing a good solution strategy, and you need all the brainpower I had available.

Well-focused strategic decision-making is the act of simultaneous thinking. However, there is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the real labor of thinking.

Remember that: Birds fly; when they get tired, they land.

Man thinks; when he gets tired, he says "I understand."

Philosophy of Creation: The fundamental project in life is engaging with the central idea that being strives for creativity. There are various ways in which being affirms the unlimited creative power. Moreover it dissolves whatever might restrict or mediate its expression, including the organisms, objects, representations, identities, and relations that this power generates along the way.

Thinking could be dangerous: The following metaphor illustrates how in some cases people prefer to not think for fear of being disappointed, adhering to the saying that "ignorance is bliss". There was a boy who lived his whole life on an iceberg. One day, he wondered what could be under the ice. He decided to dig in to find out for himself. To his greatest disappointment he discovered that he was actually living on water. From that day on, he never felt comfortable living on the iceberg and he wished he had not asked himself that question.

Mastering your fears: The major obstacle that stops people from making their own decisions is fear of making wrong decision.

When one has fear there are two primary reactions: facing the problem courageously or avoiding any commitments. However, since one has a powerful ability to analyze and understand, one can overcome the fear by self-psychoanalysis techniques to cope with the flight instinct.

Top business performers have developed a multiple-step approach to conquering their fears. First, ask yourself a few important questions. Try to identify what you actually fear. Ask yourself what's the worst that can happen if you fail. Most of the time in business, it's either a fear of loss or a fear of embarrassment.

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Next, identify what you could gain if the task or strategy works out well. This positive vision helps overshadow the negative fear. Last, ask yourself what the price is to you and to others if you do not overcome this fear There are two types of people: those who try, stumble and get up and try again, and those who fear stumbling and never even try. Guess, which type is more successful?

Our stomach is wiser than our brain: When one eats too much, the stomach rejects it by throwing up. However, the brain has no such mechanism. While mind controls the body, unfortunately, it is unable to control or give order to itself. The main cause for this is our habits, which are the centers of the gravity of the mind. Habits are weighing our mind down and therefore they are shortcuts that become comfortable means to avoid thinking.

Process of thinking for yourself: Thinking for yourself has been valued ever since ancient time: "If I am walking with two other men, each of them will serve as my teacher. I will pick out the good points of the one and imitate them, and the bad points of the other and correct them in myself."

-- Confucius

The critical thinking techniques enable us to evaluate arguments and question the quality of the reasoning that leads to a certain conclusion.

Too often we accept what we see and hear, becoming passive absorbers of information rather than critical listeners or readers. We must guard our mind against adapting a belief as our own before examining the validity of arguments for or against. We should ask questions in order to reach our own personal opinion or decision including:

• What are the issue and conclusion?

• What are the reasons?

• Which words or phrases are ambiguous?

• What are the value conflicts and assumptions?

• What are the descriptive assumptions?

• Are there any fallacies in the reasoning?

• How good is the evidence?

• Are there rival causes?

• Are the statistics deceptive?

• What significant information is omitted?

• What reasonable conclusions are possible?

Unfortunately, pure uncritical thinking enables us to absorb a great deal of information and provides a foundation for more complex thinking at some future time.

However, it is a passive exercise and, therefore, does not require an exhaustive mental effort, just concentration and memory skills. Clearly, this approach does not provide us with a method for discerning the facts, which could have serious consequences. Moreover, I am always fascinated by the way memory diffuses facts.

On the other extreme is the interactive approach to thinking that requires a "question-asking attitude" to determine the value of what is read and heard. If we are capable of thinking for ourselves, then the rewards are considerable and allows us to critically evaluate and then form personal opinions based on that evaluation of what makes sense and what is non-sense. We must also be aware that we bring our own personal experiences and values into the process and must not allow emotional involvement to taint our ability to think in an open-minded manner.

Dr. Hossein Arsham

The Wright Distinguished Research Professor at the University of Baltimore and Teaching Professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School “Decisions are at the heart of leader success, and at times there are critical moments when they can be difficult, perplexing, and nerve-racking. However, the boldest decisions are the safest. This source provides useful and practical guidance for making efficient and effective decisions in both public and private life. Nothing succeeds a success better than another sweet success.”

--Professor Hossein Arsham "Doubt everything or believe everything: these are two equally convenient strategies. With either, we dispense with the need to think." Believing means not wanting to know what is fact. Human beings are most apt to believe what they least understand. Therefore, you may rather have a mind opened by wonder than one closed by belief.

The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.

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Oregon Clean Electricity & Coal

Transition Plan Becomes Law

PORTLAND, Ore. — Pacific Power customers will be getting half of their electricity from renewable resources by 2040 under a bill Governor Kate Brown today signed into law. The law also sets firm timelines for Pacific Power to eliminate coal-fired generation from its Oregon customers’ energy mix no later than 2030.

Pacific Power worked to develop the legislation as an alternative to more costly and less effective ballot measures that were proposed for the November 2016 ballot. Ballot measure proponents agreed to drop those measures if legislation was passed. Pacific Power analysis indicated those proposed ballot measures could have cost Oregon customers up to $600 million more than this legislation.

"Our company has been reducing reliance on coal generation and expanding our renewable energy portfolio for the past 10 years as market forces, regulation and evolving customer preference continue to drive change in the way electricity is generated and delivered," stated Stefan Bird, President and CEO of Pacific Power. "This landmark legislation allows us to effectively manage Oregon’s transition to a clean energy future in a manner that protects customers from cost impacts, ensures grid reliability and allows us to meet all of our responsibilities to the communities we serve."

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BOOK: In Review A one year old with the temptation of a frosted cupcake hasn’t encountered a need to delay satisfying the urge to help herself. What difference does it make?

In another year or so it may make all the difference in the world to her. Self-control may dictate the direction of her life and the satisfactions she experiences in it, because she learned how to wait.

Knowing the developmental details of a growing, learning child has become a more important part of the studies to improve the education of young and old alike. The understanding of how a small child will act or react in different situations make the education process more focused with processes that are used based on valid observations and experimentation. We can no longer attribute the activities of a two year old with a cavalier brush-off of “Oh, he’s in his terrible two’s” as a good enough explanation for outrageous behavior. There are cause and effect explanations for many disruptive personalities that goes beyond old fashioned excuses.

The “Marshmallow Test” explains much of the research done in the past fourty plus years to better understand human behavior. The behaviors that may not be genetic may very well have had environmental influences in prenatal times. The stresses of early parenthood, even pre-birth, may cause personality changes in an unborn infant. This is a good read.

Greg Henderson, Publisher

www.SouthernOregonBusiness.com 18

TO U R I N G C o o s B ay 19

What now makes up the central district of Coos Bay was called Marshfield until 1944 when residents voted to change the name to Coos Bay to match the name of the Bay itself. The City of Marshfield was named after the Massachusetts home town of the City's founder, J.C. Tolman, and incorporated in 1874.

The waterfront was the focus of Marshfield, with Front Street where there are now various larger industrial uses and office buildings, being a hub of pedestrian and waterfront activity.

While taking this walking tour, you will note that many of the buildings in the central district of Coos Bay were completed near the turn of the century. This was a time of growth for the community.

The City of Coos Bay is now made up of various communities that once surrounded the Bay, the oldest of these being Empire City, which was once the Coos County seat. Another community which makes up Coos Bay was until recent years the City of Eastside. Both Empire and Eastside are now districts of Coos Bay. The prominence of these and other individual communities and districts within the city of Coos Bay give it a unique character not often found in small town. Today Coos Bay is known throughout the world as a major exporter of wood products, as the largest city on the Oregon Coast, a center of culture and museums, and a playground for tourists and retirees. It and is the professional and financial hub of the region.

was called Marshfield until 1944 when residents voted to change the name to Coos Bay to match the name of the Bay itself. The City of Marshfield was named after the Massachusetts home town of the City's founder, J.C. Tolman, and incorporated in 1874.

The waterfront was the focus of Marshfield, with Front Street where there are now various larger industrial uses and office buildings, being a hub of pedestrian and waterfront activity.

While taking this walking tour, you will note that many of the buildings in the central district of Coos Bay were completed near the turn of the century. This was a time of growth for the community.

A FEW OF OUR HISTORIC POINTS OF INTEREST: The Egyptian Theatre, 229 South Broadway

Outstanding example of Egyptian Revival Architecture, made popular by the discovery of King Tutankhamu's tomb. Elaborately decorated theatre remains largely unchanged. For the time being the interior is closed due to structural damage but can be viewed from the outside.

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The Egyptian Theatre, 229 South Broadway

Outstanding example of Egyptian Revival Architecture, made popular by the discovery of King Tutankhamu's tomb. Elaborately decorated theatre remains largely unchanged. For the time being the interior is closed due to structural damage but can be viewed from the outside.

Albert Powers/Conrad House, 480 Hall Street Canadian born Powers was a well-known lumberman who founded the town of Powers, Oregon. W.J. Conrad, a later occupant, formed the Conrad Lumber Co. in 1927. circa 1907 Pat Hennessey House, 893 South 5th St A coal min superintendent, Hennessey's name is a reminder of the importance of this once major industry. Hence, the name Coal Bank Slough, south of Coos Bay. circa 1908 Nerdrum House, 955 South 5th St (Coos Bay Manor) Constructed in 1911-1912. Mr. Nerdrum emigrated from Finland and was employed by the C. A. Smith Lumber Co. He pioneered a new technique for making pulp by using slat water from the bay.

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Pioneer Cemetery, 7th & Ingersoll, (Marshfield HS) IOOF Cemetery owned & maintained by the CIty of Coos Bay. Established in June 1888. Price of a lot at that time was $5. Records are available at City Hall or a map at the Visitor Center.

Bror Olsson House, 631 South 10th St Built for Sea Captain Bror Olsson, a local hero admired for saving a number of lives at sea and on land. The Bungalow Style home was originally constructed in 1912-1913 as a single family residence and today remains very much intact and original in configuration. Prominent Marshfield architect Benjamin Ostlind placed the garage “San Francisco syle” in the front yard because of the yard's slope and size of the house.

Marshfield Sun Building, 1049 North Front St Jesse Lusse published the Marshfield Sun from 1891-1944 and was the building's sole tenant.

The newspaper was the longest continuously published paper under a single owner operated in Oregon. The Sun, was hand set & printed on a hand press during its entire existence. The original equipment and many artifacts remain at the site. The building is open 1-4pm Tues – Sat between Memorial Day & Labor Day. For winter tours, call 541-266-0901.

Why Is Our Trade Balance So Important?

A basic explanation of trade beth.r923@gmail.com

In order for people to prosper, they have to be able to earn money. Whether they work to provide a good or a service, they will have a base of consumers to rely on. If they have a lot of customers, they can work more, charge more, and earn more. This is all very basic, something everyone understands on a small scale. But modern business, in this area of globalization and the Internet is very complicated, and many people have no idea who the ultimate consumers of the products they create are. The international nature of these customers might be a surprise.

America exports all manner of things, from cars to industrial supplies to art and entertainment, (the last two are particularly popular and profitable) at a total value of $148.81 billion in April. But we import far more, $189.09 billion in April. Every time you buy a shirt made in China, French wine, or gasoline, you are

the end of a chain of buyers that at one point bought a product from a Chinese or French or Saudi Arabian (or Venezuelan, or Norwegian) company. This sounds all very normal and boring, and one of the miracles of our time is that it is.

The problem comes with the aggregate effects.

Essentially, when we import more than we export, we as a country are buying more than we are making. Domestic trade is zero-sum. Someone makes something, sells it and earns money, and someone buys it and spends the same amount of money. The buyer is poorer, but the seller is richer. When we import more than we export though, we are sending money overseas.

We pay for these purchases in dollars, and the sellers then have to sell those dollars for their own currency, to buy things for themselves, or lend those dollars, earning interest Someone has to buy or borrow those dollars, and

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(our exporters would be paid in foreign currencies and would want to buy dollars with that money) the rest of the world ends up loaning America back the dollars it spends. The government borrowed some, and American consumers and businesses borrowed the rest. This worked for a short time but was unsustainable. American people and banks finally realized they were more in debt than they could handle, which in part caused the recent crisis.

We are still buying more than we are making. In the short term, the slack is being taken up by the huge deficit the government is running. Long term, nothing has been solved, and another crisis is in the making. Some politicians blame China, which uses its exchange rate to make its goods cheaper. This may be a part of the problem, but the largest single import the US buys is oil. Like so many other problems, this one would be nearly solved if we could reduce our use of petroleum.

I enjoyed this simple explanation of trade with the understanding that it is missing quite a number of factors. Things like government policies, not just America’s, but all our trading partners. And of course there’s the possibility that many of us believe high debt isn’t a big deal when no one seems to care if we need to pay it back, which in many ways we do and are. Finance and economics is complicated enough in discussing trade practices, but then there’s humanitarian aid, military support, and a large portion of our own citizens who are in no position to be contributing to our production machine, because they lack education, or skills, or things that have grown beyond their control.

If we want to control our debt and re-balance our trade we are obliged to work on it together. This isn’t something that only a few can fix. - Publisher The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products. In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Japan, Germany and Mexico. United States records trade surpluses with Hong Kong, Netherlands, United Arab Emirates and Australia. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high 23

and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Balance of Trade - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2016.

#BuzzWords Make social media work for you. www.umpquanexus.com

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I would like to retire from my business in three years.

How do I move forward with an exit strategy?

By Arlene M. Soto CMA, Southwestern SBDC Director

Just like starting a successful business requires a good business plan, retiring from a business also needs a plan. There are many questions to ask and answer. There are decisions to be made.

There are tasks that need to be done to make the transition smoother. The key is to truly have an exit strategy that is well thought out with plenty of time to implement the plan.

The first step is to decide what is to become of the business on your retirement. Will the busin2ess be transferred to the next generation of family? Will the business be closed? Will the business be sold? If the business is to be sold, will it be to an outside buyer, a competitor or supplier or to the employees?

If the business will be continued and not closed, the next step is to evaluate the business to determine its value to a new owner. This may be difficult for you to do because of the sweat equity you have put into making the business a success. Your decisions about the value of your company may be more emotional than realistic.

If possible, find an outside business valuation specialist to help.

A possible resource is the Institute of Business Appraisers http://www.go-iba.org/. Some CPA firms, realtors and business brokers also provide this service. The true value of a business is what an independent buyer is willing to pay for the company. Keep in mind there may be tax consequences and estate concerns so contacting an attorney is a prudent move.

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Finding a buyer or training the next generation to lead the company into the future will take some time. You may need to stay after the sale of the business to train the new owner. Even closing a business takes time to inform customers, employees and suppliers, negotiate leases and contracts and plan going out of business sales. Create a checklist of tasks to accomplish in this process to make sure no details are over looked.

Make the business as attractive to a new owner as possible.

Repair equipment, eliminate obsolete inventory, update instruction manuals, create a list of what is being sold, have a list of customers and suppliers and make sure financial statements and tax returns are current. If a buyer needs to obtain financing to complete the purchase give them all the information they need for their lender.

The U.S. Small Business Administration has information on planning an exit strategy at https://www.sba.gov/managing-business/closing- down-your- business. Contact your personal financial advisor to make sure you are prepared money-wise to enjoy retirement.

The SBDC is a partnership of the U.S. Small Business Administration, the Oregon Small Business Development Center Network, the Oregon Business Development Department and Southwestern Oregon Community College.

Arlene M. Soto has been the Director of the Southwestern Small Business Development Center since July 2007. To ask a question call 541-756- 6445, e-mail asoto@socc.edu, or write 2455 Maple Leaf, North Bend, OR 97459.Additional help is available at the OSBDCN Web page www.bizcenter. org.

www.SouthernOregonBusiness.com