Labor Market Study

LABOR MARKET STUDY FOR SOUTH BEND - ELKHART REGIONAL PARTNERSHIP April 2022

SUBMITTED TO: SOUTH BEND - ELKHART REGIONAL PARTNERSHIP

SUBMITTED BY:

Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 2 Current Labor Market Trends and Future Implications: The South Bend - Elkhart Region .................... 2

Demographic and Workforce Characteristics ............................................................... 6 Population Demographics .................................................................................................................... 6 Educational and Training Attainment................................................................................................... 8 Commuting Patterns .......................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Participation, Employment, and Unemployment ............................................................ 14 Household Income and Living Wage Percentages ............................................................................. 16

Industry Analysis ..................................................................................................... 17 Industry Overview ............................................................................................................................. 17 Industry Projections .......................................................................................................................... 20 Industry Characteristics ..................................................................................................................... 23 Economic Impact on Target Sectors ................................................................................................... 27

Occupation, Wage, and Benefit Analysis ................................................................... 28 Occupation Overview ........................................................................................................................ 28 Wages ............................................................................................................................................... 31 Occupation Projections ..................................................................................................................... 33

Top 120 Jobs .......................................................................................................... 35 Top Jobs Overview in the South Bend - Elkhart Region ...................................................................... 35

Automation Report ................................................................................................. 41 Summary Review of Select Automation Studies ................................................................................. 41

Manufacturing Industry Deep-Dive ........................................................................... 48 Industry Overview ............................................................................................................................. 48 Top National Industries ..................................................................................................................... 52 Occupation Overview ........................................................................................................................ 53 Manufacturing Job Posting Data (January 2020 – September 2021) .................................................. 57

Healthcare and Social Assistance Industry Deep-Dive ................................................ 62 Industry Overview ............................................................................................................................. 62 Top National Industries ..................................................................................................................... 65 Occupation Overview ........................................................................................................................ 67 Healthcare Job Posting Data (January 2020 – September 2021) ........................................................ 71

Job Posting Analysis ................................................................................................ 76 Job Postings Breakdown .................................................................................................................... 76

Appendix ................................................................................................................ 86

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Current Labor Market Trends and Future Implications: The South Bend Elkhart Region Introduction 2020 and 2021 brought major changes to the workforce landscape across the country, including the counties served by the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership. While the initial shock of pandemic-related job losses (as reflected in the unemployment rates for Elkhart, Marshall, and St. Joseph counties) have passed, longer-term challenges within the workforce persist. Stories of the upheaval of the labor force have dominated news headlines for much of 2021, with employers scrambling to secure the workers they need and job seekers navigating the gaps between the skills they have and those they will need to secure their preferred positions in what has become a seller’s market. The wage movement alone, highlighted as part of the full report below, speaks volumes to the shift in the labor market in 2021—earnings were up across all major industry sectors and job posting activity continues at a frenzied pace. 1 This study, commissioned by the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership, highlights the state of the labor market in the region at the end of a tumultuous 2021. The report itself contributes to three immediate goals of the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership: 1. Provide a full and detailed assessment, using all available data, of the state of the workforce within the three county-region, highlighting industry employment, wage changes, demographic profiles of the real and potential labor force, in-demand skills, and occupational opportunities.

2. Building on the work of the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership’s “Lifeboat Jobs” project, which identified in-demand opportunities for job seekers in need of work at the height of pandemic-related closures, develop a broader list of “Top Jobs” in the region, informed by factors and thresholds identified as important by regional stakeholders.

3. Refresh and update, in a straight-forward manner, previous attempts to estimate the potential impact of automation on two of the region’s most important occupation families: production and healthcare related jobs.

Drawing from a wide assortment of data and information produced by the Indiana Department of Employment, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and a collection of proprietary data tables and models produced by Emsi, the full report provides important detail on the labor force in the region. Meanwhile, the companion spreadsheet, which accompanies the Top Jobs analysis, includes specific

Earnings based on Average Weekly Wage in past 12 months, Q2 2021, QCEW U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job Postings based on Emsi 2021.4 data

1

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information on 595 occupations present in the region, each with detailed information on nearly 30 factors that make them unique.

We encourage readers to take the time and review the extensive details compiled for a full understanding of the challenges, and opportunities, facing the region’s workforce and employers in the years ahead and provide this executive summary to highlight the most important components of each.

Demographic and Workforce Characteristics With a population of just over 523,000 in 2020, the South Bend - Elkhart region has continued to grow over the last 30 years and is projected to reach nearly 550,000 residents by 2030.

However, this pace of growth is below both the state and national averages and, when coupled with the fact that nearly 40 percent of the population is aged 45 or older, points to potential challenges on the horizon for meeting the labor demands of the region. Nearly 48 percent of the region’s residents have a high school diploma/equivalent or less, however, over the last 10 years modest gains have been made in the percentage of residents who have earned associates, bachelor’s, or graduate degrees.

In terms of unemployment, employment, and labor force participation (employed plus unemployed persons) in the region, nearly a decade of improvement across all three measures of labor force vitality was interrupted by COVID-19 related disruptions of 2020. The year 2021 did, however, mark a nice recovery, with annual average employment and unemployment rates in Elkhart and Marshall counties approaching pre-pandemic levels, and outpacing the average, statewide rates of recovery. While employment for Marshall County has reached close to prepandemic numbers, it is the only county in the region to experience a labor force decline both in the last five and 10 years.

Industry Analysis The average annual employment in the three counties in the South Bend - Elkhart region in 2020 was 272,954, up just over 10 percent from 2010. The Manufacturing, Health Care, and Retail Trade and Government sectors remain the largest, accounting for just over 60 percent of all employment in the region. The sectors of Management of Companies and Enterprises, Utilities, and Finance and Insurance offer the highest average annual wages in the region, with each coming in above the $90,000 threshold. The Manufacturing and Education sectors, unsurprisingly, top the location quotient scale for the region, with the former coming in at a concentration rate 3.64 times the national average, and the latter at 2.37. In terms of projected growth over the next decade, the Accommodation and Food Services (3,631 new jobs by 2030) and Healthcare/Social Assistance (3,221 new jobs by 2030) sectors are poised to add the most net new positions. Interestingly, the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sector is projected to see the largest percent increase over the next decade, growing 65 percent (adding just over 1,300 new jobs). In terms of projected declines by 2030, the Manufacturing sector is predicted to shed the most net positions (7,628 or nine percent of 2020 employment) and the Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services sector is set to see the largest percent decrease, with a 21 percent decline in employment (1,952 less positions). Pages 24-25 of the full report breakdown the industries in the region in a Competitive Effect analysis.

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Occupation, Wage, and Benefit Analysis The region has a high concentration of employment within the Production, Office and Administrative Support, Transportation and Material Moving, and Sales and Related families of occupations. These two-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) families of jobs account for just over half (51 percent) of all employment in the region, with annual average employment in 2020 totaling 139,329. Production related occupations also top the job location quotient for the region, with their concentration 3.78 times the national average, in similarly situated communities. The Management (SOC 17), Healthcare Practitioner and Technical (SOC 27), Legal (SOC 37), and Architecture and Engineering (SOC 13) occupation families pay the highest average wages in the region, each at or above $34.18 per hour. Projecting growth out to 2030, the Healthcare Support (SOC 31), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (SOC 29), and Food Preparation and Serving Related (SOC 35) are poised to see the largest net growth, combining for an additional 4,431 new jobs by the end of the decade.

Top Jobs Report Informed by the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership’s previous work on Lifeboat Jobs, and further refined and reformed through ongoing conversations with the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership, this section lays out the methodology used to score and evaluate the “Top Jobs” in the region. Using measures for Current Demand, Earnings Potential, Ease of Entry, and Long-Term Stability, the team scored all 595 occupations in the region across all four measures, ranking readily available, low barrier to entry, stable positions offering a family-sustaining income higher than those that score less well along these four identified criteria. Included with the full report is a spreadsheet with all the scores, factors, and ancillary measures for each of the Top 120 occupations in the region, to help jobseekers and policy makers better map out micro and macro workforce development strategies. Some of the highest scoring occupations included those in the fields of product and services sales, engineering, industrial mechanics, nursing, management, and transportation industry specialists. Please see the Appendix for a sample of the top 20 jobs, based on the team’s scoring criteria.

Automation Report While impossible to accurately predict the full impact of automation on the region into the future, given the erratic (and often frenetic!) pace of technological innovation and advances, this section takes a closer look at the potential impact of automation on the production and healthcare occupation families. Utilizing Automation Index scores produced by Emsi – based in part on the oft-cited work of Frey and Osborne (2013) – we model scenarios of job loss across four categories of risk for the occupations: below-average, above-average, elevated, and highest. In general, the risks for job loss among the healthcare occupation family are much lower than those in the production family of occupations, so closely tied to the manufacturing industry. Baseline projections developed by Emsi indicate a potential of approximately 7,300 jobs lost in production occupations by 2030. By extending their models to 2035 and calculating the potential for “shock loss” of additional jobs triggered by automation breakthroughs, we estimate that an additional 11,000 production jobs could be at risk by 2035.

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Manufacturing, Healthcare and Social Services Industry Deep Dives These sections provide additional, deep-level detail on the manufacturing and health care industries in the region. Included are overviews of specific occupations, demographic statistics for employment in the industries, a summary of the in-demand skills, and fuller details on trends in hiring and turnover.

Job Posting Analysis This section disaggregates the 141,804 “unique” job postings in the South Bend - Elkhart region between January 2020 and the end of September 2021, highlighting county distribution, post duration, and posting intensity. Using information on salaries and hiring trends from Emsi and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find that approximately 62 percent of all advertised positions pay less than $60,000 annually, with the remaining 38 percent of all postings falling between $60,000 and $259,000 in annual wages. This section further examines the top companies, by volume of posts, in the region and highlights the industry breakdown of advertised positions. In terms of advertised occupations, Heavy Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers and Registered Nurses were the most oft posted jobs, while Retail Salespersons, Customer Service Representatives, Stock and Orders Fillers, and Nursing Assistants show wide-open potential for job seekers, with each boasting a 1-to-1 hire to posting ratio. Certifications like a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) and Nursing licensures remain in high demand, and the most common “soft” skills requested by employers include the ability to effectively communicate and a focus on customer service.

Concluding Remarks This full report contains the latest available detail on the labor force, hiring trends, and industry employment in the South Bend - Elkhart region. The information it provides can help lay the groundwork for future initiatives and extensions in the region, helping to navigate the ongoing upheaval in the workforce, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the longerterm trends it brought to the forefront.

While the data we present and utilize in the analysis of top jobs and the potential impact of automation is the best available, it is vital that work of this nature be updated regularly to capture and gauge short-term movements that can arise quickly and echo far into the future.

As a next step for the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership, development of an automated dashboard, drawing on the most important measures and insights from this report, is an important next step. Careful planning and intentional upskilling and (re)training of the workforce should remain a priority for the region, to mitigate the (potential) disruptive impact of automation on area employees. Given the strong partnerships between workforce development, education providers, and economic development in the region, the area is wellpositioned to meet these challenges head-on with innovative solutions.

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DEMOGRAPHIC AND WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS The South Bend - Elkhart region, located in northern Indiana and comprising Elkhart, Marshall, and St. Joseph Counties, is home to over 523,000 people. The following section explores how and where the region’s population is growing and the characteristics of the population, both now and as projected moving forward.

Population Demographics With a population of 523,753 people in 2020, the South Bend - Elkhart region (including Elkhart, Marshall, and St. Joseph counties), represents roughly eight percent of the total population in the state of Indiana. Population in the region has slowly increased over time, with the region posting a 2.4 percent increase in the past 10 years, a rate below both the state and national averages. While growth has been slower in the past, the region is projected to grow by roughly 26,000 people in the next 10 years, or by approximately five percent. This growth percentage would be slightly below the projected state average, and only one percentage point below the national average.

TOTAL P O PULATION I N R EGION 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000

445,432

493,486

511,533

518,335

523,753

2000

2010

2015

2020

549,594

300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990

2030*

Figure 1: Population in the Region, U.S. Census Bureau

Area Region State (Indiana) United States

2020 Population

Actual Change (2010-2020)

Projected Change (2020-2030)

523,753

12,220

2.39%

25,841

4.93%

6,754,953

270,903

4.18%

388,842

5.76%

329,484,123

20,156,980

7.00%

20,267,674

6.00%

Table 1: Population Comparison, Hoosier Data, U.S. Census Bureau

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Population by County While the population of the region is increasing, growth has been different among each county. As Figure 2 shows, Marshall County declined in population from 2010 - 2020 while Elkhart experienced the largest gains both in terms of percentage and net population. That said, each county is expected to grow in the next 10 years, with Elkhart, again, projected to enjoy the highest growth percentage of nine percent, increasing roughly 20,000 people.

Elkhart County’s growth alone is projected to account for approximately 80 percent of the growth in the region.

Historic and Projected Population by County 47,050 46,108 49,848

Marshall

197,569 206,161 225,496

Elkhart

266,914 271,484 274,250

St. Joseph

0

50,000

100,000

150,000 2010

2020

200,000

250,000

300,000

2030

Figure 2: Historic and Projected Population by County, U.S. Census Bureau

Population Characteristics Age distribution for the region Population by Age in Region closely resembles that of the 7% state of Indiana. As described 16% in greater detail in the South Preschool (0 to 4) 18% Bend - Elkhart region READI School Age (5 to 17) Proposal, age distribution can College Age (18 to 24) be viewed through a strategic Young Adult (25 to 44) lens, representative of both the 24% 10% Older Adult (45 to 64) present and potential future Seniors (65 and older) workforce. The cohort between 25 and 64, which accounts for 25% roughly 50 percent of the Figure 3: Population by Age in Region, Indiana Business Research population, is considered prime Center working-age. The impacts of COVID-19, both directly and as an accelerant of retirements, will continue to add stress to the importance of this group of workers for the foreseeable future.

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Age Cohorts

Percent In Region

Preschool (0 to 4)

Percent In State

6.80%

6.10%

18.20%

17.00%

College Age (18 to 24)

9.90%

9.70%

Young Adult (25 to 44)

25.00%

25.70%

Older Adult (45 to 64)

23.70%

24.90%

Seniors (65 and older)

16.40%

16.50%

School Age (5 to 17)

Table 2: Age Distribution in Region, Indiana Business Research Center

Population by Race The South Bend - Elkhart region’s racial makeup closely mirrors that of the state of Indiana.

Roughly 15 percent of the region identifies as a racial or ethnic minority, with the remaining percentage of the population identifying as white. The Hispanic population in the region, however, is considerably larger in the region vis-a-vis the state, with percentages of 13 and seven, respectively. As the population grows and evolves overtime, racial and ethnic inclusion in forms of economic participation and representation will continue to be an emerging opportunity for the region.

Percent In Region

Percent In State

American Indian or Alaska Native Alone

1%

0%

Asian Alone

2%

3%

Black Alone

10%

10%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pac. Isl. Alone

0%

0%

White

85%

85%

Two or More Race Groups

3%

2%

Non-Hispanic

88%

93%

Hispanic

13%

7%

Race

Hispanic or Latino Origin

Table 3: Population by Race, Hoosier Data

Educational and Training Attainment The Lumina Foundation, an independent foundation committed to increasing educational attainment, tracks post-high school educational attainment of Americans aged 25 to 64. 2 In addition to usual attainment categories, the Lumina Foundation specializes in tracking both certification and short-term credential attainment. With increased employer emphasis on short-term credentials for their workforce, this information is crucial to understanding the current skills, and gaps, in the labor force. Figure 4 displays the state of Indiana’s and the 2 Who We Are, Lumina Foundation, 2021, https://www.luminafoundation.org/. Attainment includes “graduate or professional degrees, bachelor’s degrees, associate degrees, certificates, industry-recognized certifications”

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nation's current educational attainment levels, both with and without short-term credentials.

As seen, while Indiana is making progress toward increasing its educational attainment, the state lags the nation in overall attainment, despite gains in the past decade. 3 As of 2021, Indiana’s attainment rate is 48.3 percent, compared to the national rate of 51.9 percent. The current short-term credential attainment rate in Indiana is 9.9 percent, made up of 4.3 percent certificates plus 5.6 percent certifications. Data about these credentials are not yet collected at the county level or disaggregated by race and ethnicity.

Additionally, an educational attainment goal (60 percent) is provided in the chart. By 2025, the Lumina Foundation projects that “60 percent of adults in the United States will need some quality credential beyond high school. To count toward this goal, any credential must have clear and transparent learning outcomes that lead to further education and employment.” To reach state goals, the state will need to “significantly increase the number of people who enroll in programs and earn all types of credentials beyond high school. With the inclusion of workforce certificates (beginning in 2014) and certifications (in 2018), Indiana's overall rate of educational attainment has increased by 15.4 percentage points since 2009.” 4

Indiana Attainment

Indiana Goal

38.4%*

National Attainment

48.3%

National Goal 43.8%*

51.9%

*Without short-term credentials

Figure 4: Attainment Levels, Lumina Foundation

While credential information at the county level is not available, attainment rates for the population aged 25-46 with an associate degree or higher by county are provided in Figure 5 below. St. Joseph County holds the highest percentage of the population within this category, as compared to Elkhart and Marshall counties, in part due to the presence of the University of Notre Dame. Marshall County has seen a slow rise in attainment levels, although this metric dropped slightly in 2019. Elkhart County’s rate has remained relatively flat over the past 10 years, with only a slight bump in attainment over the last two years.

Rates include short-term credentials, for more information on short-term credentials please follow this link: https://www.luminafoundation.org/stronger-nation/report/#/progress/state/IN 4 2021 Indiana Report, Lumina Foundation, 2021, https://www.luminafoundation.org/strongernation/report/#/progress/state/IN 3

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% of Population with an Associate Degree or Higher (Ages 25-46) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009

2010

2011

2012 Elkhart

2013

2014 Marshall

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

St. Joseph

Figure 5: Attainment Levels by County, Lumina Foundation

Educational attainment in the region has increased over the last 10 years, including an increase of two percentage points each in the attainment of associate, bachelor’s, and graduate degrees. The associated dip in high school diploma percentage can be attributed to the gains in higher education, as these figures represent only the highest level of education earned. A more highly educated population is an important resource for the region; it can attract new enterprises seeking a skilled workforce and, of course, leads to higher average earnings within the population, improving both the micro and macro economy for the region. 5

Higher Paid, More Educated Workers, Society for Human Resource Management, 20215, https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/workers-receive-more-job-training.aspx

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Educational Attainment by Percent of Population 2010 40%

35%

35%

2020

33%

30% 25%

20% 19%

20% 15% 10% 5%

11% 5% 6%

14% 9%

16% 8%

6% 8%

10%

0% Less Than 9th Grade

9th Grade to 12th Grade

High School Diploma

Some College

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate Degree and Higher

Figure 6: Educational Attainment Year Comparison, Emsi 2021.4

While educational attainment has been increasing in the South Bend - Elkhart region, the region still has some ground to make up vis-a-vis the state and national averages. While the region is within a percentage point of national and state level attainment rates of associate degrees, the disparity is larger in bachelor’s and graduate degree attainment.

2020 Educational Attainment Comparison Region

State

Nation

33% 33%

35% 30%

27%

25%

19% 20% 20%

20%

20% 16%

17%

15% 10% 5%

13% 9% 6%

4%

5%

8%

7% 7%

10% 10%

9% 9%

0% Less Than 9th Grade

9th Grade to 12th Grade

High School Diploma

Some College

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate Degree and Higher

Figure 7: 2020 Educational Attainment Comparison, Emsi 2021.4

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Educational Attainment by Race 2010 vs. 2020 Breaking down educational attainment by race can identify any gaps in education and potential equity concerns. As Table 4 demonstrates, educational attainment varies widely by race in the South Bend - Elkhart region. While progress has occurred over the past decade, the Black and Hispanic or Latino community attainment levels for high school diplomas and college degrees still lag attainment rates for the White and Asian populations in the region. 6 Percent of Population in Region Race/Ethnicity

Less than High School Education

At Least a High School Diploma

College Degree or Above

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

White

14%

11%

86%

89%

30%

36%

Black

22%

18%

78%

82%

19%

24%

Asian

14%

16%

86%

84%

52%

55%

Hispanic, Two or More Races

45%

41%

56%

59%

15%

16%

Table 4: Educational Attainment by Race, Emsi 2021.4

Educational Attainment by Gender 2010 vs. 2020 Educational attainment by gender shows that females in the region hold slightly higher attainment levels than males. This has been a common trend nationally, as young women are more likely to be enrolled in college today than young men, and among those aged 25 and older, women are more likely than men to have a four-year college degree. 7 Within the region, the percentages of both males and females with a high school diploma or college degree have increased over the last decade.

Percent of Population Gender

Less than High School Education 2010 2020

At Least a High School Diploma 2010 2020

College Degree or Above 2010 2020

Males

17%

16%

83%

84%

29%

32%

Females

15%

14%

85%

86%

28%

34%

Table 5: Educational Attainment by Gender, Emsi 202.4

Native American or Alaskan Native, Pacific Islander, and Two or More Races were excluded from the chart due to lack of population/data available 7 Gender Gap, Pew Research, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/08/whats-behind-the-growing-gapbetween-men-and-women-in-college-completion/ 6

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Program Data In 2020, there were 6,915 Program Completions in the South Bend - Elkhart region. A vast majority of awards completed were bachelor’s degrees, which accounted for roughly 70 percent of all completions in the region. Completions for “Distance Offered Programs” (or remote learning) have increased by 435 percent since 2012. While the major uptick in remote completions was certainly accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, this trend is expected to continue.

Throughout the U.S., a recent emphasis has been placed on creating an increasing number of distance learning options, specifically in the realm of two-year degrees and short-term certificates. 8

Award Level

Completions (2020)

Associate Degree

220

Bachelor's Degree

4,684

Master's Degree

1,448

Doctor's Degree

443

Other

120

Total

6,915

Table 6: Award Level Completions, 2020,

Emsi 2021.4 Looking from 2012 to 2020, a seven percent decrease in total program completions occurred throughout the region. This trend is not unique to the region, with more, and sometimes better, opportunities available that do not require a college diploma and the rapidly rising cost of tuition, college enrollment rates have declined by an average of 1.67 percent per year since 2010 in the U.S. 9

Type of Program

2012 Completions

2020 Completions

% Change

Distance Offered Programs

79

423

435%

Non-Distance Offered Programs

7,314

6,492

(11%)

All Programs

7,393

6,915

(7%)

Table 7: Program Completion History, Emsi 2021.4

Commuting Patterns Commuting patterns in the South Bend - Elkhart region indicate that more people enter the region to work, than commute out. In 2019, roughly 83,000 workers commuted into the region, with Berrien, Kosciusko, and Cass counties boasting the highest number of inbound commuters. Over 50,000 workers commute out of the region, with the largest number of commuters heading to Marion, Kosciusko, and Allen counties. Additionally, 195,550 people live and work in the region, a healthy percentage of workers for the local economy to rely on for both talent attraction and retention. For further county specific data on commuting, please see the READI Proposal Report, pages 258-264.

Ibid.

College Enrollment and Student Statistics, Education Data Initiative, 2021, https://educationdata.org/college-enrollmentstatistics#:~:text=College%20enrollment%20rates%20have%20declined,are%20enrolled%20in%20American%20colleges.

8 9

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195,550 live and work in the region 83,123 workers commute in

50,068 workers commute out

Net gain of 33,055 workers

Figure 8: Commuting Overview, OnTheMap 2019, U.S. Census Bureau

Labor Force Participation, Employment, and Unemployment The percentage of the labor force gainfully employed in the region had been steadily increasing between 2010 and 2020, mirroring national trends in the reduction of unemployed persons. In 2010, roughly 30,000 people were counted as unemployed in the region, with that number dropping steadily to less than 8,500 in 2019. As a result of pandemic-related closures and business restrictions in 2020, the annual average unemployment count for the region spiked and labor force participation fell. In 2021, however, both labor force participation (up 6,000) and employment (15,000) have bounced back.

Labor Force vs. Annual Employment 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Avg. Labor Force

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021*

Annual Avg. Employment

Figure 9: Labor Force vs. Annual Employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

*2021 data through 14 | PSeptember age

Labor Force Changes While the region’s overall labor force has been increasing, the change has been disproportionate across the three counties. Elkhart County has seen both the largest 5-Year and 10-Year percent changes, outperforming both the other counties in the region and the state of Indiana as a whole. St. Joseph County has had moderate growth both in the last five and 10 years, while Marshall County is experiencing decline.

20.0%

Labor Force Participation Changes

17.0%

15.0% 10.0%

5.5%

5.0%

2.2%

4.5%

2.3%

1.6%

0.0% -5.0%

-3.5%

-10.0% Elkhart County, IN

-5.7%

Marshall County, IN Labor Force 5-Year Pct. Chg

St. Joseph County, IN

Indiana

Labor Force 10-Year Pct. Chg

Figure 10: Labor Force Participation Changes, STATS Indiana, Indiana Department of Workforce Development

Unemployment Unemployment in the region steadily declined over the past decade, until rapidly peaking in 2020. Historically, St. Joseph County has experienced slightly higher unemployment rates than Elkhart and Marshall counties, and the state of Indiana. While 2021 unemployment numbers have dropped significantly from 2020, St. Joseph still is experiencing much higher unemployment than it did pre-COVID.

Average Annual Unemployment 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

Elkhart County, IN

2014

2015

Marshall County, IN

2016

2017

2018

St. Joseph County, IN

2019

2020

2021*

Indiana

Figure 11: Average Annual Unemployment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Household Income and Living Wage Percentages Living wage data is displayed in Table 8 for each of the counties in the region. The living wage for an area is defined as “the hourly rate that an individual in a household must earn to support his or herself and their family.” As seen, the Poverty and Minimum Wage are the same regardless of county, as both rely on state and federal statutes. That said, living wages for each county track closely with one another, with St. Joseph County having the highest cost of living.

This data was pulled from the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT) Living Wage Calculator 10, the assumption is based on working full-time (2,080 hours per year) for each family earner. With two working adults, hourly rates are per working adult. 11 Elkhart County

Living Wage

0 Children

2 ADULTS

2 ADULTS

(1 WORKING)

(BOTH WORKING)

1 Child

2 Children

3 Children

0 Children

1 Child

2 Children

3 Children

Elkhart

$21.82

$26.39

$29.97

$31.63

$10.91

$14.78

$18.16

$20.57

Marshall

$21.48

$25.67

$29.25

$31.11

$10.74

$14.36

$17.69

$20.15

St. Joseph

$22.22

$26.55

$30.13

$32.00

$11.11

$14.86

$18.24

$20.75

$8.29

$10.44

$12.60

$14.75

$4.14

$5.22

$6.30

$7.38

$7.25

$7.25

$7.25

$7.25

$7.25

$7.25

$7.25

$7.25

Poverty Wage Minimum Wage

Table 8: Living Wage by County, MIT

Table 9 displays other household income data and statistics for the region. As seen, Per Capita Personal Income for each county falls below the state average. Marshall County falls the furthest below by roughly $5,500. Elkhart County holds the highest Median Household Income, roughly $5,000 higher than both Marshall and St. Joseph counties, and $1,000 higher than the state. Poverty level in the region is highest in St. Joseph County, at 11.2 percent.

County

Per Capita Personal Income

Median Household Income

Median House Value

Median Monthly Rent

Poverty Level

Elkhart

$49,875

$57,021

$144,300

$810

8.9%

Marshall

$45,277

$52,658

$138,700

$754

9.2%

St. Joseph

$51,141

$52,769

$129,000

$793

11.2%

Indiana

$51,926

$56,303

$141,700

$826

9.3%

Table 9: Household Income Statistics, STATS Indiana, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Living Wage Calculator, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2021, https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/18039.

For further detail on the Living Wage Methodology, please reference the technical report: https://livingwage.mit.edu/resources/Living-Wage-Users-Guide-Technical-Documentation-2021-05-21.pdf 10 11

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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The South Bend - Elkhart region has several specialized and growing industries. The Industry Analysis section highlights sector growth in the region, including characteristics such as employment size, earnings, location quotient (LQ), and diversity representation. Industries are analyzed at both the 2-Digit and 5-Digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) level. 12

Industry Overview In 2020, the South Bend - Elkhart region had 272,954 total jobs, with the Manufacturing (81K), Healthcare and Social Assistance (33K), and Retail Trade (25K) industries posting the highest levels of employment in the region. In the last 10 years (2010 – 2020), total jobs have increased by 10 percent in the region, adding approximately 25,000 jobs since 2010. As the region continues to recover from the pandemic, the present diversification of industries and resiliency of the overall economy will be crucial in getting back to pre-pandemic levels of jobs.

While overall jobs have been growing in the region, this has not been the case for each industry. As seen, some of the biggest performers are the Management of Companies and Enterprises industry (100 percent growth), as well as the Manufacturing industry (28 percent growth). Conversely, the Information industry has declined by 35 percent, along with the Utilities industry, which posted a 17 percent drop in employment. Overall, 12 industries saw growth in the past 10 years, with the remaining eight industries declining.

Location Quotient (LQ) is a way of quantifying how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a region compared to the nation. 13 The Manufacturing industry holds the highest LQ in the region with a score of 3.64. This would indicate there are 3.64 times as many Manufacturing jobs in the South Bend - Elkhart region than in an average region of its size. LQ is an easy way to see where the region may have a competitive edge or cluster, and in 2020, the two most prominent scores are seen in the Manufacturing, and Educational Services industries.

The average annual earnings per job for the region is $60,231. The Management of Company and Enterprises industry holds the highest annual earnings at $174,227 per job, while the Accommodation and Food Services industry holds the lowest earnings at $19,892 per job.

While a considerable range, most industries fall within the $45,000 - $75,000 earnings mark.

2020 Diversity Percentage by Industry is based on how many people in each industry identify themselves as a race/ethnicity other than White. 14 The average diversity per industry in the region is 22 percent, this means on average there is (approximately) one person of color (POC) for every 4 people who are white, which aligns closely with the overall race/ethnicity makeup of the region. The industries with the highest diversity are Accommodation and Food Services 12

NAICS Overview, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data,2021.2 QCEW, https://kb.emsidata.com/reportwalkthroughs/occupation-overview/ 13 Location Quotient, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data, 2021.4 QCEW, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/location-quotient/ 14 Industry and Occupation Diversity Methodology, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data, 2021.4 QCEW, https://kb.emsidata.com/methodology/industry-and-occupation-demographics-methodology/

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(31 percent) and Manufacturing (26 percent). The industries with the least representation for POC are Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas Extraction (four percent) and Utilities (eight percent).

NAICS

Description

2020 Jobs

2010 - 20 % Change

2020 LQ

Avg. Annual Earnings Per Job

2020 Diversity % of Industry

31

Manufacturing

81,271

28%

3.64

$69,240

26%

62

Health Care and Social Assistance

33,033

14%

0.90

$61,582

24%

44

Retail Trade

25,073

3%

0.91

$37,332

19%

90

Government

25,055

(9%)

0.56

$56,665

14%

72

Accommodation and Food Services

17,171

1%

0.83

$19,892

31%

61

Educational Services

16,504

(3%)

2.37

$54,826

20%

42

Wholesale Trade

12,213

13%

1.17

$73,760

16%

81

Other Services (except Public Administration)

10,750

(3%)

0.88

$36,839

16%

23

Construction

9,835

29%

0.72

$72,327

10%

56

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

9,412

(9%)

0.59

$38,330

33%

48

Transportation and Warehousing

7,022

19%

0.65

$65,967

20%

54

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

6,930

9%

0.39

$74,745

12%

52

Finance and Insurance

6,148

(10%)

0.51

$90,183

14%

55

Management of Companies and Enterprises

4,747

100%

1.11

$174,227

21%

53

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

2,776

17%

0.67

$56,450

15%

71

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

2,144

22%

0.66

$29,952

17%

51

Information

1,554

(35%)

0.31

$72,056

14%

11

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

788

(9%)

0.29

$50,120

19%

22

Utilities

470

(17%)

0.47

$144,965

8%

21

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

61

1%

0.06

$77,826

4%

272,954

10%

N/A

$60,231

22%

Total

Table 10: Industry Overview, 2-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021.4

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Top Industries by Earnings, Jobs, and Location Quotient (2-Digit) The top five industries by total jobs (2020), average annual earnings, and location quotient can be seen in the figures below. No single industry is represented in the top five for each category listed. That said, the Manufacturing industry is clearly the largest and most specialized industry in the region. A further breakdown of sub-sectors and occupations that make up this industry can be found later in the report.

Top Industries by Total Jobs (2020) Manufacturing

81,271

Health Care and Social Assistance

33,033

Retail Trade

25,073

Government

25,055

Accommodation and Food Services

17,171

Figure 12: Top Industries by Total Jobs, Emsi 2021.4

Top Industries by Average Annual Earnings Management of Companies and Enterprises

$174,227

Utilities

$144,965

Finance and Insurance

$90,183

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

$77,826

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

$74,745

Figure 13: Top Industries by Average Annual Earnings, Emsi 2021.4

Top Industries by Location Quotient Manufacturing

3.64

Educational Services

2.37

Wholesale Trade

1.17

Management of Companies and Enterprises

1.11

Retail Trade

0.91 0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Figure 14: Top Industries by Location Quotient, Emsi 2021.4

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Industry Projections The table below showcases the top projected industries, by growth in the region, in the next 10 years. 15 As several industries were incredibly impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic, a “recovery” or bounce-back of jobs influences the overall growth patterns for all sectors. For example, the top projected growing industry in the South Bend - Elkhart region in the next 10 years is the Accommodation and Food Services industry, with a projected 21 percent increase or roughly 3,600 new jobs. While this growth does represent the strength of the industry in the region, the recovery of thousands of lost jobs in this sector from the pandemic must also be accounted for. Most notably the Health Care and Social Assistance industry is projected to have the second highest gross number of jobs added in the next 10 years, approximately 3,200. As the population in the region continues to age, demand for applicants in occupations like Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Registered Nurses and Nursing Assistants is projected to rapidly increase. Another notable change in growth is the projected 65 percent increase in jobs for the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation industry. As this was another example of an industry hit particularly hard by COVID-19, the projected bounce back and acceleration of jobs highlights the anticipated resiliency of this industry in the region.

Overall, the region is expected to see a one percent job decline moving into the future. While projected growth in certain industries is an opportunity for the region, the more pressing concern is the projected decrease in jobs, most notably in manufacturing, the largest industry in the region. Explained in further detail later in the report, the projected decline of over 7,500 jobs for the manufacturing industry accounts for approximately 60 percent of all predicted job loss in the region. Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators are one example of an occupation in this industry that will face a considerable decline in employment. With manufacturing as the largest and most specialized industry in the region, the projected decline means that several qualified and skilled workers will be looking for new opportunities. This presents a unique opportunity for these workers to move into a similar skilled occupation in manufacturing or upskill to better position themselves to secure emerging employment opportunities.

Industry Projection Methodology, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data, 2021.2 QCEW, https://kb.emsidata.com/methodology/industry-projections-methodology/

15

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NAICS

Description

2020 Jobs

2030 Jobs

2020 - 30 Change

2020 - 30 % Change

72

Accommodation and Food Services

17,060

20,691

3,631

21%

62

Health Care and Social Assistance

32,591

35,812

3,221

10%

71

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

2,096

3,460

1,364

65%

55

Management of Companies and Enterprises

4,743

5,345

602

13%

42

Wholesale Trade

12,189

12,527

338

3%

53

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

2,692

2,933

241

9%

81

Other Services (except Public Administration)

6,066

6,258

192

3%

54

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

6,864

7,028

164

2%

23

Construction

9,587

9,706

120

1%

11

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

675

700

25

4%

21

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

61

61

0

0%

22

Utilities

470

432

(38)

(8%)

48

Transportation and Warehousing

6,445

6,355

(90)

(1%)

90

Government

22,769

22,630

(139)

(1%)

51

Information

1,551

1,368

(183)

(12%)

52

Finance and Insurance

5,594

5,236

(358)

(6%)

61

Educational Services

10,184

8,795

(1,389)

(14%)

44

Retail Trade

24,904

23,413

(1,491)

(6%)

56

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

9,397

7,444

(1,952)

(21%)

31

Manufacturing

81,201

73,573

(7,628)

(9%)

257,137

253,768

(3,369)

(1%)

Total Table 11: Industry Projections, 2-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021.4

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Top Five Projected Industries for Job Growth and Decline (6-Digit) For additional insight at a more granular level, the top five largest industries by 6-digit NAICS, in both total job growth and decline are shown in the table below. The largest net gain in jobs comes from the Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels national industry. As a sub-sector of the larger Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sector highlighted above, this group helps drive the growth in the broader industry group. The second highest projected growth in jobs comes from Full-Service Restaurants, including a potential bounce back as many restaurants closed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Again, the growth experienced in this sub-sector contributes to overall projected strength of the Accommodation and Food Services industry. Also projected are job increases in specific manufacturing, healthcare, and management industries. In terms of projected decline in employment, three of the five top sub-sectors belong to the Manufacturing Industry Sector. Specifically, the Motor Home, Plastics, and Window/Door Manufacturing sub-sectors are expected to see significant drops in employment.

NAICS

Description

2020 Jobs

2030 Jobs

2020 -30 Change

2020 -30 % Change

Avg. Annual Earnings Per Job

Growth 321911

Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels

1,746

3,328

1,581

91%

$23,453

321912

Full-Service Restaurants

6,149

7,197

1,047

17%

$20,936

321918

Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manufacturing

3,770

4,742

972

26%

$60,255

321920

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

9,891

10,529

638

6%

$66,568

321991

Corporate, Subsidiary, and Regional Managing Offices

4,673

5,255

581

12%

$172,644

10,185

7,999

(2,187)

(21%)

$67,712

Decline 336213

Motor Home Manufacturing

561320

Temporary Help Services

3,859

1,730

(2,129)

(55%)

$31,148

326199

All Other Plastics Product Manufacturing

3,738

2,289

(1,449)

(39%)

$59,744

611310

Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools

7,190

6,055

(1,135)

(16%)

$101,814

332321

Metal Window and Door Manufacturing

1,513

562

(951)

(63%)

$56,958

Table 12: Industry Projections for Growth and Decline, 6-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021.4

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Industry Characteristics Establishments by Sector Industry establishments broken down by sector throughout the region can be seen below.

Retail Trade and the Other Services (except Public Administration) have, respectively, the largest and second largest counts of unique firms operating in the region. The top five industries, by number of unique firms, are rounded out by Manufacturing, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Accommodation and Food Services.

NAICS 44 81 31 62 72 23 54 42 52 56 53 48 51 71 61 55 22 11 99 21

Industry

Total

Retail Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Construction Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Administrative and Support and Waste Mgmt./Remediation Svcs.

Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Transportation and Warehousing Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Educational Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting Unclassified Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

1,734 1,324 1,266 1,185 1,066 986 856 772 695 579 434 403 187 148 127 74 20 12 7 3

Total

11,883

Table 13: Industry Establishments by Sector, Hoosier Data, Indiana Department of Workforce

Industry Establishments by Size A notable trend for the South Bend - Elkhart Firms and Employment by Size region is the decrease in small-scale 4% 5% establishments over the past decade. From 1-9 employees 2010 to 2018, the number of small 12% 10-19 employees establishments (One to nine employees) decreased by 422. That said, the number of 20-49 employees employers with 100+ employees grew by 34 15% 50-99 employees percent, with 504 new establishments added to the list over the eight years in question.

65% 100 plus employees Even with the decrease in small employers, small firms still make up the majority of all establishments in the region, with 7,681 establishments accounting for 65 percent of all firms 23 | P a g e

in the region. It is important to note, however, that firms can grow (or shrink) in terms of number of employees and move across the size categories presented below over time. An absolute decline in one category does not mean that the affiliated number is a count of businesses no longer in operation.

Size

Establishments

Number Change 2010 – 18

Percent Change 2010 – 18

Percent of Total

1-9 employees

7,681

(422)

(5%)

65%

10-19 employees

1,728

(103)

(6%)

15%

20-49 employees

1,420

239

20%

12%

50-99 employees

550

110

25%

5%

100 plus employees

504

128

34%

4%

Total

11,883

(48)

(0%)

100%

Table 14: Industry Employment by Size, Hoosier Data, U.S. Census Bureau 2019

Figure 15: Firms and Employment by Size, Hoosier Data

Competitive Effect, 2010 – 2020 The Competitive Effect analysis is used to examine employment changes over time for industry in a region. To understand these changes, the analysis breaks employment changes into four categories: Industry Mix Effect; National Growth Effect; Expected Change; and Competitive Effect (CE): •

Industry Mix Effect is the number of jobs we would expect to see added (or lost) within an industry in the South Bend - Elkhart region, based on industry-wide growth/decline.

•

National Growth Effect is the employment change due to general growth or decline in the national economy, applying general measures of economic growth/decline to the specific industry.

•

Expected Change is found from adding both the Industry Mix Effect with the National Growth Effect.

•

Competitive Effect (CE) is then found from subtracting the Expected Change from the actual regional job change in the industry chosen. This final measure highlights how well the region is performing, after controlling for industry specific and national economic trends.

From the calculation above, the competitive effect essentially indicates how much of the job change within a given region is the result of some unique competitive advantage. 16 This factor captures the job change that occurs within a regional industry that cannot be explained by broader trends. As seen below, the furthest right column indicates what industries have exceeded or underperformed expectations based on national and industry trends in the last 10 Competitive Effect, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/competitive-effect/

16

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years (2010 – 2020). Far and away the Manufacturing industry has outperformed what was expected for the industry in the region, which coincides with growth in the heavy specialized sectors of this industry. Seven other industry sectors in the region have also outperformed what could be expected, based solely on national economic and industry-wide trends.

Conversely, the bottom three industry performers in competitive effect were Educational Services, Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance. While the Health Care and Social Assistance industry grew in jobs the last 10 years, the industry underperformed expectations based on national economic trends and industry growth. The full details for all 2-digit NAICS industry sectors appear in the table below and Figure 16 displays the top three industries with the highest competitive effect.

NAICS

Description

31

Manufacturing

55

Management of Companies and Enterprises

42

Industry Mix Effect

National Growth Effect

Expected Change

Competitive Effect

(2,618)

5,600

2,982

14,632

378

209

586

1,789

Wholesale Trade

(638)

953

315

1,060

71

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

(310)

154

(156)

546

44

Retail Trade

(1,691)

2,139

448

314

72

Accommodation and Food Services

(1,529)

1,490

(40)

280

53

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

112

209

321

80

21

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

(16)

5

(10)

11

23

Construction

1,640

669

2,309

(81)

22

Utilities

(58)

50

(8)

(88)

11

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

(3)

76

73

(148)

81

Other Services (except Public Administration)

(872)

975

102

(433)

51

Information

(212)

210

(2)

(837)

54

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

1,123

561

1,684

(1,128)

48

Transportation and Warehousing

1,745

520

2,265

(1,153)

52

Finance and Insurance

238

603

842

(1,550)

90

Government

(2,969)

2,410

(558)

(1,784)

62

Health Care and Social Assistance

3,258

2,555

5,813

(1,816)

56

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

694

914

1,608

(2,590)

61

Educational Services

622

1,497

2,119

(2,627)

(1,106)

21,800

20,694

4,474

Total Table 15: Competitive Effect, Emsi 2021.4

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Competitive Effect Analysis Industry Mix Effect

National Growth Effect

Expected Change

Competitive Effect

20,000 14,632

15,000 10,000

5,600 2,982

5,000

378

0 (5,000)

209

586

1,789

953

315 1,060

(638)

(2,618) Manufacturing

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Wholesale Trade

Figure 16: Shift Share Analysis, Emsi 2021.4

Total Diversity Percentage for All Industries in Region As defined earlier, the 2020 Diversity Percentage by Industry reflects the percentage of employees that identify themselves as a race/ethnicity other than White. 17 To minimize the disproportionate impact of the largest industries in the region, the overall diversity percentage is calculated as the average of all industry-specific diversity rates, standardizing across all sectors. Using this method, the average diversity score in the region is 14 percent: nine industry sectors currently have above average diversity representation, while 11 fall under the region’s all-industry average of 14 percent.

Average Diversity Per All Industries = 18% TOTAL DIVERSITY (%) IN INDUSTRY

40% 33%

35% 30%

26%

24%

25% 20%

31%

19%

19%

15%

20%

15%

14%

10%

5% 0% 11

4% 21

22

23

31

42

20%

14%

16%

8%

10%

21%

44

48

51

52

14%

17%

16%

12%

53

54

55

56

61

62

71

72

81

90

INDUSTRY NAICS CODE Figure 17: Diversity Percent Across All Industries, Emsi 2021.4

Industry and Occupation Diversity Methodology, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data, 2021.4 QCEW, https://kb.emsidata.com/methodology/industry-and-occupation-demographics-methodology/

17

26 | P a g e

Economic Impact on Target Sectors A forecast including changes in earnings, jobs, and taxes on production and imports (TPI) is included to highlight the economic impact of two target sectors on the South Bend - Elkhart regional economy: Manufacturing and Healthcare. Using 2020 employment counts as a starting point, the tables below illustrate the impact of adding 100 additional positions 18 to each of those industry sectors.

•

Initial Change: Shows the change in earnings for the industry employer, and the number of new jobs created. For these examples, we set the new jobs at 100.

•

Direct Change: The impact these 100 new jobs will have on the supply-chain, other employers, also in terms of additional earnings and jobs created. In the manufacturing example below, adding 100 new jobs in the initial phase is projected to generate the creation of 24 new supply chain positions.

•

Indirect Change: Highlights a further ripple effect of the initial 100 jobs, this shows the change in revenue and employment for the “supply chain’s supply chain.”

•

Induced Change: Shows the change brought about by the earnings of employees as they spend in them in the community, the investments they make, and the subsequent government created to manage the direct/indirect/initial changes in earnings. The final column features the net impact of all the change waves on local, state, and federal taxes received.

Manufacturing

Healthcare

18

Initial Direct Indirect Induced Local State Federal

Initial Direct Indirect Induced Local State Federal

Change in Earnings

Change in Jobs

Change in Taxes on TPI

$6.1M $1.6M $455K $1.6M N/A N/A N/A

100 24 8 36 N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A $232K $204K $107K

Change in Earnings

Change in Jobs

Change in Taxes on TPI

$6.4M $923K $245K $1.5M N/A N/A N/A

100 20 5 33 N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A $174K $150K $67K

Positions are distributed proportionally across the standard occupations in the typical employment matrix for each industry.

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OCCUPATION, WAGE, AND BENEFIT ANALYSIS The Occupation, Wage, and Benefit Analysis section provides additional detail at the occupation-level for the region. The tables below highlight growth/drop in employment, median earnings, location quotient (LQ), and diversity representation within a family of jobs.

Information is provided for both the 2-Digit and 5-Digit Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) level. 19

Occupation Overview In 2020, the region had approximately 273,000 jobs, paying an average median hourly rate of $18.44. In the last 10 years, the number of jobs has grown by 10 percent, adding roughly 27,000 new opportunities. Production employment is the most common in the region, with over 60,000 jobs in 2020, or nearly 30,000 more jobs than the second largest occupation family in terms of employment. With a growth rate of 17 percent over the last decade, these production occupations pay, on average, slightly below the median hourly rate in the region, but have a slightly higher diversity representation percentage than the region as a whole.

SOC (0000) 51 43 53 41 35 29 25 11 49 47 31 13 37 33 21 17 39 15 27 19 55 23 45

Occupations Production Office and Administrative Support Transportation and Material Moving Sales and Related Food Preparation and Serving Related Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Educational Instruction and Library Management Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Construction and Extraction Healthcare Support Business and Financial Operations Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Protective Service Community and Social Service Architecture and Engineering Personal Care and Service Computer and Mathematical Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Life, Physical, and Social Science Military-only Legal Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Total

60,476 32,784 24,162 21,907 18,122 14,231 13,716 11,985 11,967 10,153 9,496 9,271

2010 - 20 % Change 17% 3% 16% 5% 3% 17% (18%) 11% 16% 29% 24% 27%

2020 LQ 3.78 0.91 1.04 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.82 0.76 1.11 0.91 0.73 0.57

Median Hourly Earnings $17.96 $17.62 $16.30 $14.58 $10.51 $29.68 $22.59 $41.68 $22.29 $23.24 $13.47 $28.22

2020 Total Diversity % 27% 19% 26% 18% 29% 16% 14% 13% 15% 15% 33% 15%

6,811

(4%)

0.79

$13.74

31%

4,832 4,507 3,954 3,909 3,680

15% 21% 16% (9%) 21%

0.75 0.9 0.83 0.63 0.42

$21.51 $20.13 $32.35 $11.27 $30.61

18% 22% 14% 17% 18%

3,002

(2%)

0.81

$19.63

13%

1,762 805 766 655 272,954

74% (12%) (3%) (13%) 10%

0.68 0.44 0.35 0.31 N/A

$28.68 $19.72 $27.83 $12.61 $18.44

18% 17% 11% 27% 22%

2020 Jobs

Table 16: Occupation Overview, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.4

19 Occupation Overview, Emsi Labor Market Analytics & Economic Data,2021.2 QCEW,https://kb.emsidata.com/report-

walkthroughs/occupation-overview/

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Top Occupations by Earnings, Jobs, and Location Quotient (2-Digit) Figures 18 through 20 showcase the top occupations in the region, by earnings, jobs, and location quotient. Management occupations have the highest median hourly earnings, with a median hourly rate of $41.68, followed by Architecture and Engineering occupations ($32.51/hour) and Computer and Mathematical occupations at ($30.61/hour). Only three occupations in the region have a location quotient over 1, with Production occupations, unsurprisingly, leading the way with a LQ of 3.78.

Top Occupations by Total Jobs (2020) Production

60,476

Office & Administrative Support

32,784

Transportation & Material Moving

24,162

Sales & Related

21,907

Food Preparation & Serving Related

18,122 0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Figure 18: Top Occupations by Total Jobs, Emsi 2021.4

Top Occupations by Median Hourly Earnings Management

$41.68

Architecture and Engineering

$32.35

Computer and Mathematical

$30.61

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

$29.68

Life, Physical, and Social Science

$28.68 $0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

Figure 19: Top Occupations by Median Hourly Earnings, Emsi 2021.4

Top Occupations by Location Quotient Production

3.78

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

1.11

Transportation and Material Moving

1.04

Office and Administrative Support

0.91

Construction and Extraction

0.91 0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Figure 20: Top Occupations by Location Quotient, Emsi 2021.4

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Occupation Percent Share breakdown by County Figure 21 illustrates the distribution of 2-digit SOC families across the three counties in the region. Of note: 1. Elkhart County has nearly 75 percent of all production occupations in the region.

2. Marshall County approaches parity with Elkhart County in number of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry, Occupations. However, the county does not possess a plurality of employment, vis-a-vis the other counties in the region, in any 2-digit SOC family.

3. Finally, St. Joseph County holds the highest number of jobs in most of the occupations listed, mirroring, of course, the population distribution of the region.

Percent Share of 2020 Total Jobs by County Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service Legal Educational Instruction and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving Military-only Total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Elkhart

Marhsall

St. Joseph

Figure 21: Percent Share of Occupations by County, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.

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Wages The average earnings per job in the South Bend - Elkhart region is $22.49, while median earnings are $18.44. The lower 25 th percentile of earners make $13.62, while the upper 75 th percentile of earners make almost $13 more per hour, coming in at a rate of $26.53. Earnings by occupation are also listed in Table 17, with the gap between average earnings and median earnings illustrating the potential skewing effect of a preponderance of low-paying, entry-level positions. While wages are not fully representative of current economic conditions, comparing the Living Wage calculations in the previous section with wages paints a fuller picture of the buying power of the region’s workforce.

25th Percentile

Median Earnings

75th Percentile

$13.62

$18.44

$26.53

Percentile Earnings by Occupation SOC (0000) 17 27 37 13 21 15 47 25 45 35 29 31 49 23 19 11 55 43 39 51 33 41 53

Occupation Management Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Legal Architecture and Engineering Computer and Mathematical Life, Physical, and Social Science Business and Financial Operations Educational Instruction and Library Construction and Extraction Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Military-only Protective Service Community and Social Service Sales and Related Production Office and Administrative Support Transportation and Material Moving Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Healthcare Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Personal Care and Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Total

Average Earnings

Median Earnings

25th Percentile Earnings

75th Percentile Earnings

$48.59 $36.92 $34.44 $34.18 $33.54 $33.29 $31.13 $26.52 $24.41 $24.20 $23.23 $22.94 $21.88 $21.86 $21.52 $19.75 $18.82 $17.65 $14.86 $14.32 $13.86 $13.25 $11.43 $22.49

$41.68 $29.68 $27.83 $32.35 $30.61 $28.68 $28.22 $22.59 $23.24 $19.63 $22.29 $19.72 $21.51 $20.13 $14.58 $17.96 $17.62 $16.30 $13.74 $13.47 $12.61 $11.27 $10.51 $18.44

$29.55 $22.46 $20.49 $25.26 $22.99 $21.71 $21.27 $16.08 $17.61 $14.36 $17.32 $11.39 $13.66 $16.42 $10.81 $14.61 $14.25 $13.01 $11.24 $11.50 $8.89 $9.32 $8.84 $13.62

$59.41 $38.99 $40.69 $40.77 $40.39 $39.81 $37.22 $31.60 $29.96 $26.43 $28.20 $28.21 $28.70 $26.04 $24.31 $23.27 $22.03 $21.11 $17.18 $16.20 $16.12 $14.94 $12.75 $26.53

Table 17: Wage Percentiles for Occupations, Emsi 2021.4

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25 th – 75 th Percentile Earnings for Occupations at the 2-Digit SOC Level Average Hourly Earnings = $22.49 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00

Figure 22: 25th - 75th Earnings Percentile for Occupations, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.4

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Occupation Projections In terms of overall employment, the South Bend - Elkhart region is projected to see a decline of one percent, or roughly 3,000 jobs lost, in the next 10 years. Production occupations make up the majority of this decline, where over 7,300 jobs are projected to be lost. 20 Production occupations are seeing declines for various number of reasons, including jobs lost to offshoring, automation, and increasing specialization. 21 Office and Administrative Support occupations are also projected to decline significantly. At the other end of the spectrum, Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations are expected to see the largest net increase in employment through 2030. With roughly 2,500 projected jobs, the growth in this family of occupations represents 33 percent of the total projected job growth in the region. Healthcare Support occupations are also projected to see the above average growth, both in terms of percent change and total number of jobs. Of the 2-digit SOC families, 17 occupations are projected to grow employment while five occupations are projected to decline.

SOC (000) 35 31 29 11 49 37 39 13 21 15 33 25 17 19 23 45 27 55 47 41 53 43 51

Occupations Food Preparation and Serving Related Healthcare Support Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Management Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Business and Financial Operations Community and Social Service Computer and Mathematical Protective Service Educational Instruction and Library Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Legal Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Military-only Construction and Extraction Sales and Related Transportation and Material Moving Office and Administrative Support Production Total

2020 Jobs

2030 Jobs

2020 - 30 Change

2020 - 30 % Change

Median Hourly Earnings Per Job

18,122 9,496 14,231 11,985 11,967

20,688 10,498 15,094 12,656 12,550

2,566 1,002 863 671 583

14% 11% 6% 6% 5%

$10.51 $13.47 $29.68 $41.68 $22.29

6,811

7,307

496

7%

$13.74

3,909 9,271 4,507 3,680 4,832 13,716 3,954 1,762 766 655

4,346 9,610 4,838 3,811 4,924 13,796 4,014 1,813 792 675

437 339 331 131 92 80 60 51 26 20

11% 4% 7% 4% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3%

$11.27 $28.22 $20.13 $30.61 $21.51 $22.59 $32.35 $28.68 $27.83 $12.61

3,002

3,011

9

0%

$19.63

805 10,153 21,907 24,162 32,784 60,476 272,954

773 9,858 21,551 23,609 30,488 53,169 269,869

(32) (296) (356) (553) (2,296) (7,307) (3,085)

(4%) (3%) (2%) (2%) (7%) (12%) (1%)

$19.72 $23.24 $14.58 $16.30 $17.62 $17.96 $18.44

Table 18: Occupation Projections, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.4

20

More information on production occupation decline can be found in the Manufacturing Deep Dive section.

WFYI Indianapolis, 2018, https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/research-finds-more-indiana-manufacturing-jobs-loss-tooffshoring-than-automation 21

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Top 15 Occupations in 2020 in the Region at the 5-Digit SOC Level Occupations below are listed at the 5-digit SOC level to provide a more granular view into projected growth in employment. At this more specific level of review, Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators have the highest employment level in the region, with 19,141 jobs.

Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators are usually employed by the Motor Vehicles and Motor Equipment Manufacturing industry. 22 The Elkhart/Goshen area is the top region in the nation for employment of this occupation. 23 Other listed top occupations vary widely by industry and requisite education, with a strong, positive correlation between higher earnings and additional education. The diversity in top occupations indicates an economy that could be resilient to potential shocks, but the heavy specialization in jobs in the Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators should be accounted for in any future planning or workforce development strategies.

SOC 51-2098 53-7062

Occupations Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

2020 Jobs

2010-20 % Change

2020-30 % Change

19,141

11%

(20%)

6,995

85%

(8%)

Typical Entry Level Education

Median Hourly Earnings

High school diploma equivalent

$17.61

No formal educational cred.

$15.16

High school diploma or equivalent No formal educational cred.

No formal educational cred.

No formal educational cred.

Bachelor's degree High school diploma or equivalent

43-9061

Office Clerks, General

6,945

35%

(9%)

41-2031 35-3023 41-2011 29-1141

Retail Salespersons Fast Food Counter Workers Cashiers Registered Nurses Customer Service Representatives General and Operations Managers

6,269 5,567 5,479 5,168

2% 4% 5% 19%

(4%) 8% (10%) 6%

4,732

47%

(5%)

4,192

14%

3%

25-1099

Postsecondary Teachers

4,171

-17%

(1%)

53-7065

Stockers and Order Fillers

3,899

3%

(2%)

3,777

20%

3%

High school diploma or equivalent

$31.48

3,598

25%

13%

High school diploma or equivalent

$11.48

3,594

0%

2%

No formal educational cred.

$14.09

3,542

15%

3%

High school diploma or equivalent

$19.84

43-4051 11-1021

41-4012

31-1128 37-2011 49-9071

Sales Representatives, Wholesale Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Home Health and Personal Care Aides Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Bachelor's degree

23

$13.08 $9.70 $10.30 $31.10 $18.36 $44.14

Doctoral or professional degree High school diploma or equivalent

Table 19: Top 15 Occupations, 5-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.4

22

$16.33

DataUSA, 2020, https://datausa.io/profile/soc/miscellaneous-assemblers-fabricators Ibid.

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$32.52 $13.77

“TOP JOBS” ANALYSIS Top Jobs Overview in the South Bend - Elkhart Region Moving beyond the basic facts and descriptive statistics presented above on occupations in the region, this section is especially focused on the development of a practical, replicable system to objectively score and evaluate the best available jobs in the South Bend - Elkhart region. The challenge with developing such an objective measure is the necessary use of largely subjective criteria.

To manage the varying degrees of subjectivity attached to any criteria used to score and evaluate an occupation, the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership worked closely with the research team from TPMA to establish and vet criteria they found uniquely valuable for the construction of list of “Top Jobs.” Through a series of conversations and draft reviews, the team identified four general criteria as vital for occupation ranking: 1. Current Demand: Jobs that are in high demand should score higher than those with low.

2. Earnings Potential: Jobs that provide a family-sustaining wage should score higher than those that provide a lower salary.

3. Ease of Entry: Jobs that are easier for applicants to land without extensive education or experience should score higher than those with high barriers to entry.

4. Long-Term Stability: Occupations that are at lower risk of disappearing in the next decade should score higher than those that are at risk for elimination.

Armed with a list of priorities, the team next quantified measurements of these criteria and applied them to an exhaustive list of current 24 occupations present in at least one of the counties of Elkhart, Marshall, or St. Joseph. Based on 2020 annual averages, this list of 755 industry-specific occupations (6-digit SOCs) totals to 272,954 jobs within the 3-county region.

After eliminating all occupations with annual average employment levels of 10 positions or less, the list was cut to 595 potential “Top 120” jobs. To see a sample of the Top 20 jobs and their calculated score from the 120-job list, please see the Appendix.

General Modeling Decisions While the literature review and past work by other regions across the nation provide some guidance for modeling “Top Jobs,” the exercise itself is equal parts art and science. Ideally, the list of selected criteria passes the eye test – that is, do these criteria make sense? The best way to gauge how the list measures up is to seek and incorporate feedback from within the workforce, economic development, and education stakeholders within the greater South Bend - Elkhart region. With this in mind, the TPMA team purposely incorporated feedback from community stakeholders to produce a list of top jobs for the region. Specifically: 1. The TPMA team met regularly with South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership staff throughout each phase of the model construction, reviewing data, implications, and draft final lists.

24

As of 2020 from the state of Indiana/US BLS Occupation Employment and Wages Survey (OEWS)

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2. The TPMA team presented the draft findings at multiple community engagement sessions to elicit further feedback.

In addition to the vital feedback of the community, the other top concern for the TPMA modeling team centered on factor correlation. Ideally, when constructing one master measure for evaluating occupations, the component parts should be largely independent of one another. If too many measures, combined into a single scale, covary predictably, the model becomes potentially skewed toward one overweighted factor, measured in multiple ways. The correlation table below highlights the relationship between the factors considered for inclusion in a top jobs model.

2020 Hires Quintiles

2020 Hires Quintiles

Above $14.36 Quintiles

Education Quintile Scores

Work Experience Categories

2020/2030 Percent Change Quintiles

Automation Quartiles

1

Above $14.36 Quintiles

-0.24779

1

Education Quintile Scores

0.214796

-0.54342

1

Work Experience Categories 2020/2030 Percent Change Quintiles

-0.01095

-0.27552

0.16396848

1

-0.07642

0.016898

-0.1370017

-0.0513868

1

Automation Quartiles

-0.13534

0.414753

-0.6671471

-0.2595773

0.1426931

Table 20: Modeling Results, Emsi 2021.4

Finally, with concern to the scoring decisions themselves, the team focused on creating categories (approximate quintiles, in most cases) of rankings within the selected component factors. By combing the groups of jobs into more general categories and moving away from continuous measurement options such as raw job opening counts or uncategorized salary dollars, we minimized the risk of jobs with the most openings, or positions with the highest pay rates, overwhelming the model and becoming, de facto, the sole determining factors.

Additionally, the use of categories ensured consistency across measures of ease of access (education level and experience required), which have measures that can only be categorized into a finite number of groups.

Turning now to a fuller discussion of the four key concepts the team identified as vital to scoring occupations in South Bend - Elkhart region, we unpack both our considered, and selected, measures of Current Demand, Earnings Potential, Ease of Entry, and Long-Term Stability. Each of these potential measures was scored along the same scale, with values ranging from 0 to 1, with a higher assigned value representing a “better” score.

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1

Current Demand The team considered several options to measure current demand: job postings, annual average openings, and new hires in 2020, but quickly focused on two alternatives: Average Annual Occupation openings (2015-2020) and the more current 2020 data on New Hires.

Option A: Annual Average Openings

Option B: 2020 Hires

Mean Openings: 74.3 Range of Annual Openings: 2 to 2,869

Mean Hires: 345 Range of Annual Openings: 10 to 10,312

Score

Frequency

Annual Average Openings Range

Score

Frequency

2020 Hires Range

1

74

40 to 99

0.75

123

125 to 478

172

16 to 39

0.5

116

62 to 123

0.25

112

10 to 15

0.25

129

26 to 59

0

130

Less than 10

0

153

25 or less

1

88

100 to 2,869

0.75

93

0.5

508 to 10,312

Table 21: Annual Average Openings and 2020 Hire Scores, Emsi 2021.4

When creating our categories out of continuous measures, such as the opening and hires data above, we employed an “Approximate Quintile Score System.” True quintiles for a list of 595 jobs would be groups of 119, however, these artificial cut points do not take into consideration ancillary factors that would warrant similarly constituted jobs be grouped together. For example, when looking at the Option A above, a true quintile system would group occupations with annual average openings of less than 50 into the same category as Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators, which average almost 2900 openings per year. While certainly there are flaws in the categories as established, the team tried to apply logic and reason to establishing cut points, again focusing on the “eye test” to gauge if this makes sense.

As for the possible measures themselves, Annual Average Openings and 2020 New Hires do indeed predictably covary, moving in the same direction (see Table 21 above), which warrants including only one or the other, so as not to overly weigh the importance of Current Demand.

While both options have merit, remaining true to the original intent of this project – identifying great opportunities for citizens in the region right now – the modeling team decided to focus on perhaps the best measure of current demand: recent hires.

Earnings Potential When determining a scoring system for earnings potential, the team considered using the same criteria Emsi employed for the region’s Lifeboat Jobs project in the heart of the recession. This team used the arbitrary cut-point of $15 per hour, which is, of course, a reasonable starting point. However, after further discussions with the South Bend - Elkhart

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Regional Partnership, we decided to focus instead on the Living Wage calculations for the region, as developed by MIT. 25 Specifically, the team considered two salary cut-points, as informed by MIT’s work. The MIT scales are based on the number of working adults and children in the home, with minimum salary cut-points indicated for the living, poverty, and minimum wages. Informed by discussions with the South Bend - Elkhart Regional Partnership, the modeling team considered two options: two adults, one working with one child and two adults, both working, with one child. Tables 22 and 23 below show the distribution 26 across the 595 occupations under consideration.

Option A: 2 Adults (1 working) with 1 child Living Wage by County Elkhart: $26.39 Marshall: $25.67 St. Joseph: $26.55 Score

Frequency

Option B: 2 adults (both working) with 1 child Living Wage by County Elkhart: $14.78 Marshall: $14.36 St. Joseph: $14.86 Score

Wage Range

Frequency

Wage Range

1

197

$25.67 or More

1

506

$14.36 or More

0

398

Less than $25.67

0

89

Less than $14.36

Table 22: Living Wage Scores, MIT

While the simple cut-points – does a job pay more than $25.67 ($14.36) per hour or not – are clean breaks and an easy way to screen out non-living wage jobs, a certain degree of precision is lost with yes/no scoring criteria. To better account for a fuller range of scoring options, the team also constructed a more nuanced, forced quintile scoring option as well. Anchored with the bare minimum living wage for a household with two working adults and one child, all positions paying less than $14.36 per hour were assigned a value of 0. The full break out of wages, frequency, and assigned score appears in the table below.

Forced Quintiles, MIT Living Wage Scale Score

Frequency

$14.36-Based Quintiles

1 0.75 0.5 0.25

172 109 103 122

$27.22 to $121.18

0

89

Less than $14.36

$22.00 to $26.99 $18.00 to $21.93 $14.44 to $17.95

Table 23: Living Wage Quintiles, MIT

25 Living Wage Calculator, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2021, https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/18039.

26 Elkhart, Marshall, and St. Joseph counties each have unique values identified for the poverty and living wage in the county.

In the interest of regionalism, the team opted to use the lowest values (from Marshall County) as the cut points for each category.

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Based on the wide range of salaries available in the South Bend - Elkhart region, it is the recommendation of the research team that we utilize the forced quintile option outlined above. This approach incorporates both the upper and lower wage ranges identified as possibilities based on the MIT research (two working adults and one working adult) and, more importantly, allows for a mid-range score for occupations with wages above the minimum living wage cut point but well below the most financially lucrative occupations in the region.

Ease of Entry When evaluating potential measures for ease of entry Score Frequency Experience Level into the occupation, the team identified two important 1 512 None related, but somewhat independent (see correlation 0.5 60 Less than 5 Years table above), factors that can be used to quantify 0 23 More than 5 Years access to an occupation. The first, minimum education Table 24: Experience Levels, Emsi 2021.4 required, categorizes occupations based on the education required to be hired and the second, experience level required, categorizes occupations based on the level of experience employers require prior to hire. The tables below show the category breakouts, affiliated scores, and frequency of occurrence within the South Bend - Elkhart region.

Score

Frequency

Education Required

1

337

0.75

40

Postsecondary Non-Degree

0.5

40

Associates Degree

0.25

136

Bachelor’s degree

0

41

HS/Equivalent or No Requirement

Advanced/Professional/Graduate

Table 25: Education Levels, Emsi 2021.4

Given the collapsed categories available for experience and the heavy skew toward occupations that require only HS/Equivalent (or less) (approximately 57 percent of the occupations under review), it is the recommendation of the research team that both measures be included in a final model for scoring potential “Top Jobs” in the region.

Long-Term Stability Although the need for creating a list of “Top Jobs” for the region is firmly rooted in providing citizens with real-time, actionable advice on the best opportunities available as of today, it is nonetheless vital to include a measure of future occupational risk. To measure and quantify the long-term stability of any given occupation, the research team considered two factors: Projected Percent Change in Employment Levels by 2030 and Automation Risk, with both measures sourced from Emsi original modeling.

The two tables below identify first the net change in predicted employment by 2030 and the affiliated percent change. While both are important to understanding the data, it is the recommendation of the research team that the percent change measure be utilized in the final model to better standardized the wide range of predicted growth in the region (see, for 39 | P a g e

example, the first quintile in on the Net Change chart, which ranges from +25 all the way up to +773). It is worth noting, both options are bottom-heavy, that is, the largest categories in each scale are made up of professions which will see a decrease in employment (net and percent) over the next decade. Approximately 42 percent of the 595 occupations under consideration are projected to see a decrease in employment levels by 2030.

Score

Frequency

Net Change, 2020 to 2030

1

94

+25 to +773

0.75 0.5 0.25

77 69 103

+11 to +24 +5 to +10 0 to +4

0

251

-607 to -1

Table 26: Net Job Scores, Emsi 2021.4

Score

Frequency

Percent Change in Jobs, 2020 to 2030

1

57

+20% to +147%

0.75 0.5 0.25 0

99 93 94 251

+10% to +19% +5% to +9% 0% to +4% -41% to -1%

Table 27: Percent Change in Job Scores, 2021.4

The final option for future stability, risk of automation, is loosely related to projected growth, but is hardly a perfect correlate. Based on Emsi’s proprietary Automation Index 27, any occupation with a score of 100 or higher is deemed to be at risk of elimination/reduction from automation while those with scores below 100 are considered to be less at risk. Given the relatively small range of all possible scores (74.6 to 137.3), the team utilized a forced quartile scoring system, classifying jobs into the four categories outlined in the table below. While absolute levels of “safety” cannot be inferred from the scores, and technological breakthroughs can render occupations obsolete virtually overnight, the research team affiliated scores of: 1 with jobs at no or low risk of automation, .75 with jobs as future risk of automation, .5 with jobs at more immediate risk of automation, and a score of .25 with jobs at high risk for short-term automation.

Score

Frequency

Automation Index Score

1 0.75

269 92

74.6 to 94.8 95 to 104.9

0.5

103

105.1 to 115.9

0.25

129

116 to 137.3

Table 28: Automation Scores, Emsi 2021.4

27

Please see Emsi’s Report on the Automation Index for a full explanation of the automation index and the scoring decisions made by the EMSI team: https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/automation-index/

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AUTOMATION REPORT Summary Review of Select Automation Studies 1. There has been an explosion of research on the impact of automation over the last decade. While the debate, and potential impact of automation on existing job loss/new job creation, remains unsettled, the high-level insights of some of the most prominent works are summarized as: Frey and Osborne, who modeled the degree of risk for automation of nearly every occupational category in the U.S. Frey and Osborne find that about 47 percent of U.S. employment is at risk for automation by 2033. 28 2.

McKinsey Global Institute (McKinsey) estimated the portion of certain occupational activities are likely to be automated, as well as, how productivity gains might create increased jobs to offset lost positions. McKinsey projects that automation will occur more slowly and be roughly offset by job gains in other areas. Still, they project that 23 percent of U.S. workers will be displaced and must be re-trained or transitioned to other jobs. 29

3.

Focusing on occupational change in how jobs are completed or supplemented by AIinstead of net potential loss from automation, the Brookings Institution (Muro, Maxim, and Whiton, 2019) estimates the potential impact on occupation change and regions in the United States. They find, in part, that occupations with “routine cognitive and physical tasks” are the most susceptible to replacement via automation. Highlighting their list of “at-risk” occupations are those in the Production, Food Services, and Transportation occupation families. By extension, regions with a higher-than-average concentration of these type of occupations are most at risk 30.

4.

In 2017, a Ball State University study (Devarag, Hicks, Wornell, and Faulk) focused on both automation and offshoring risks for communities across the nation. First calculating the risk of automation for each occupation family, then applying the risk levels to the regional concentration of employment, the authors highlighted and mapped the counties most at-risk across the United States. In Indiana, the authors identified the counties of LaGrange, Switzerland, Blackford, and Perry among the top 25 most at-risk counties in the United States 31.

This section takes a slightly more straightforward approach to modeling automation risk for the South Bend - Elkhart region, utilizing projections and automation risk scores produced by Emsi.

The details on the methodology employed by Emsi in developing risk scores, and our application of these scores to a regional model for risk in the production and health care families of occupations appear below.

28 29

Frey, C. B. & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?

McKinsey Global Institute (2017b). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.

30 Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How Machines are affecting people and places (2019). https://www.brookings.edu/research/automation-and-artificial-intelligence-how-machines-affect-people-and-places/ 31 How Vulnerable are American Communities to Automation, Trade, and Urbanization? (2017). http://projects.cberdata.org/reports/Vulnerability-20170719.pdf

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Automation Index Methodology The estimates provided in this report are derived from data extracted from Emsi, which in turn also relies, in part, on the Frey and Osbourne (2013) methodology described above. Emsi economists model the risk of automation for occupations by regressing task time shares for occupations (derived from O*NET work activities) for each occupation using Frey and Osborne’s “computerization probabilities.” Combining task time shares with Frey and Osborne’s probabilities helps identify and isolate the range of occupational tasks correlated with high automation risk.

To round out the Emsi automation risk scoring model, place of occupation is included to control for high-risk communities/industry clusters. What results is a unique automation risk score for each occupation in a community, indexed with a base “average” score of 100.

Occupations with a score higher than 100 are considered at higher-than-average risk of automation, those with a score below 100 are considered at lower-than-average risk for automation. The index Emsi has created has a standard deviation of 15, which serves as our starting point for further disaggregation of at-risk occupations. 32

Automation Methodology and Results Unlike previous studies that aggregated occupations into industry sectors to identify those most at risk as a whole, our task in this analysis is to examine the potential impact of occupation automation on only two Industry sectors, Healthcare and Manufacturing.

Fortunately, the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system categorizes occupations within families easily and directly affiliated with these two industries: Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (29-0000) and Healthcare Support Occupations (31-0000) for Healthcare and Production Occupations (51-0000) for Manufacturing. With this starting point, we next considered a full list of all occupations in the region falling into one of these classifications and isolated the occupations with automation index scores over 100. Tables 29 through 32 below highlight the descriptive statistics for each of these occupation families.

Production Occupations Overview Risk of Automation

2020 to 2030 Projected Net Change

Projected 2030 Employment

Projected Employment Percent Change

Average Median Wage

-647

6,315

-9.30%

$21.43

41,140

-5,971

35,169

-14.51%

$14.65

12,314

-689

11,625

-5.59%

$17.58

Unique Occupations

2020 Employment

>/=100; <110

11

6,962

>/=110; <120

55

>/=120; </=130.3

24

Table 29: Production Occupations Overview, Emsi 2021.4

32

Emsi automation index methodology: https://kb.emsidata.com/methodology/automation-index-methodology/

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In reviewing the 90 occupations in the South Bend - Elkhart region within the production family of jobs, the overall risk of automation is elevated, with an average occupation automation index score of 116.4. 33 Nearly every production occupation is at some risk of automation, with the “least risky” occupation being First Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (51-1011), coming in with an automation index score of 88.6.

Healthcare Practitioners, Technical, and Healthcare Support Occupations Overview

Risk of Automation <100

Unique Occupations

2020 Employment

2020 to 2030 Projected Net Change

Projected 2030 Employment

Projected Employment Percent Change

Average Median Wage

55

22,393

1,933

24,325

8.63%

$37.71

>/=100; <110

3

1,037

-86

951

-8.28%

$16.54

>/=110; </=116.6

3

285

18

303

6.25%

$15.07

Table 30: Healthcare Practitioners, Technical, and Healthcare Support Occupations Overview, Emsi 2021.4

The 61 occupations in the Healthcare family of jobs are, on average, better insulated from the risk of automation than Production occupations. The average automation index score for the jobs under review is 90.9, with only 9.8 percent (six out of 61) of the occupations affiliated with index scores greater than or equal to 100. Moreover, according to Emsi’s 2030 employment projections for the region, health care occupations are projected to increase by approximately 12.7 percent, resulting in an additional 1,865 jobs by 2030.

Projected Impact of Automation Before a fuller discussion of the charts and graph below on the projected future impact of automation, it is worthwhile to reiterate the fluid nature of projections and the unpredictable pace of innovation. Two of the most oft-cited studies on automation impact, Frey and Osbourne (2013) and McKinsey (2017), disagree on both the timing and replacement rates of automated occupations, with the McKinsey group generally more optimistic on the emergence of new employment opportunities – fueled in no small part by the efficiency and productivity gains of automation – that will more-or-less offset job losses in automated occupations.

Nonetheless, both agree that the impact will be real and McKinsey estimates that around 23 percent of all American workers will need to be retrained to transition into new occupations.

Aside from the divergence in the academic literature on speed and breadth of job loss in industry, there are also additional, ancillary and external factors that can occur unexpectedly to speed or slow the adoption rate of automation. COVID-19 and the resultant tight labor market – certainly unpredictable in 2018 or 2019 – is just but one example of a potentially disruptive factor. If the labor market remains tight, and positions remain unfilled for a long enough period of time, it stands to reason employers will take a closer look at an expedited automation timeline. While it will be informative to revisit the impact of COVID on automation

33

Sum of all occupation automation index scores, divided by 90 (count of unique SOCs).

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several years from now, when the dust settles, for the time being we must assume a linear decrease in employment across occupations impacted by automation.

Tables 31 and 32 below lay out linear employment projections across three categories of jobs in the Production and Health Care Occupation families. 2010 through 2020 data are historical and accurate, as of initial release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 2030 projected employment comes from Emsi, and factors in the impact of automation on future employment levels, through 2030. Ancillary, independent regression modeling by the TPMA team revealed a strong, negative correlation between automation index score and projected 2030 employment, with higher AI scores affiliated with greater drops in projected employment levels.

The “2035 Expedited Automation Impact” values explicitly account for the three levels of automation risk, with riskier occupations expected to see more significant drops in employment by 2035. Factors of .9, .8, and .7, respectively, were applied to the 2030 employment counts to develop simple projections of future employment, with arbitrary cutpoints that allow for the explicit modeling of different rates of automation impact, accounting for the AI scores assigned to each occupation. The “2035 Linear Automation Impact” serves as a point of comparison and are an extension of the projected 5-year change calculated using Emsi’s 2020 employment levels and 2030 projected employment levels. 34

Projected Employment by Risk Level, Production Occupations

Risk Level

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035 Linear Automation Impact

2035 Expedited Automation Impact

Additional At Risk, Expedited Automation

Above Average Risk

6,084

6,523

6,962

6,639

6,315

5,991

5,683

308

Elevated Risk

34,503

37,822

41,140

38,154

35,169

32,183

28,135

4,048

Highest Risk

10,828

11,571

12,314

11,969

11,625

11,280

8,137

3,143

All Risk Levels

51,415

55,916

60,416

56,762

53,108

49,455

41,956

7,499

Table 31: Projected Employment by Risk Level, Production Occupations, Emsi 2021.4

Beginning with the production occupations table, the data shows that the linear impact of automation, without the shock of additional breakthroughs or external forces, is predicted to drive down employment within the field by 2030 and, by extension 2035, by approximately 7,300 jobs by 2030 and an additional 3,600 positions by 2035. Applying risk factors of .9, .8, and .7 to the occupation counts in the three at-risk categories shows that a differential, expedited pace of automation across the groupings, could lead to the loss of an additional 7,499 jobs by 2035.

While the results of these estimations may not be terribly surprising, given the fact that nearly Linear 2035 Projections calculated by: ((2030 Employment Projections – 2020 Employment Levels)/2) + 2030 Employment Projections. 2035 Expedited Automation Employment Projections calculated by: (2030 Employment Levels)(Factor Score of .9, .8, or .7) 34

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88 percent of all production jobs in 2020 fall into either the Elevated or Highest Risk categories, the potential drop in employment by 2035 is concerning and points to the need for training now to prepare for what could be mass disruptions to the production workforce. The graphs below highlight the potential impact of automation, both linear and in the event of “shock loss” through 2035. For ease of presentation, we provide a separate graph for each of the risk categories, as well as one that incorporates all categories of risk into a single model of potential job loss.

Production "Above Average Risk" Occupation Projections 7,500

6,962

7,000 6,500

6,523

6,639

6,084

6,315 5,991

6,000

5,683

5,500 5,000 2010

2015

"Above Avg. Risk" Category Jobs

2020

2025

Linear Automation Impact

2030

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

Production "Elevated Risk" Occupation Projections 45,000 40,000 35,000

41,140 37,822

38,154

34,503

35,169 32,183

30,000

28,135

25,000 2010

2015

"Elevated Risk" Cateogy Jobs

2020

2025

Linear Automation Impact

2030

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

Production "Highest Risk" Occupation Projections 15,000 13,000 11,000

10,828

11,571

12,314

11,969

11,625

11,280

9,000

8,137

7,000 5,000 2010

2015

"Highest Risk" Category Jobs

2020

2025

Linear Automation Impact

2030

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

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Production "All Risk" Occupation Projections 65,000 55,000

60,416

55,916

51,415

56,762

53,108 49,455

45,000

41,956

35,000 2010

2015 All Risk Levels

2020

2025

2030

Linear Automation Impact

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

Projected Employment by Risk Level, Healthcare Occupations 2035 Linear Automation Impact

2035 Expedited Automation Impact

Additional At Risk, Expedited Automation

Risk Level

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Below Average Risk

18,594

20,493

22,393

23,359

24,325

25,292

25,292

0

Above Average Risk

915

976

1037

994

951

908

856

52

Elevated Risk

193

239

285

294

303

312

242

69

19,702

21,708

23,715

24,647

25,579

26,511

26,390

122

All Risk Levels

Table 32: Projected Employment by Risk Level, Healthcare Occupations, Emsi 2021.4

All things equal, Healthcare Occupations are positioned to fare much better than Production Occupations in the region over the next 15 years. First and foremost, a much smaller percentage of positions in 2020 fall into the above-average or elevated risk categories, with only approximately six percent of all employment outside of the below-average risk category.

With no occupations falling into the “Highest Risk” category present in the Production table, the factors used to predict shock events that could expedite automation were 1.0, .9, and .8 respectively for the below average, above average, and elevated risk categories. Based on the potential impact of expedited automation beyond 2030, the additional, resultant job losses in the field number only 122. The continued growth of “Below Average Risk” occupations, and the large percentage of jobs falling into this category (in 2020, 22,359 out of 24,647 Healthcare Occupations were included in this category), should continue to provide opportunities for advancement and insulation from the impacts of automation for workers within the field. The line graphs below illustrate the potential impact of automation across the risk categories in the Healthcare family of jobs.

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Healthcare "Below Average Risk" Occupation Projections 30,000 25,000 20,000

18,594

20,493

22,393

23,359

24,325

2020

2025

2030

25,292

15,000 2010

2015

"Below Avg. Risk" Cateogory Jobs

Linear Automation Impact

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

Healthcare "Above Average Risk" Occupation Projections 1,100 1,000

1,037 976

994

915

951 908 856

900 800 2010

2015

"Above Avg. Risk" Category Jobs

2020

2025

Linear Automation Impact

2030

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

Healthcare "Elevated Risk" Occupation Projections 400 300 200

193

239

285

294

303

2020

2025

2030

312 242

100 0 2010

2015

"Elevated Risk" Cateogy Jobs

Linear Automation Impact

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

Healthcare "All Risk" Occupation Projections 28,000 26,000

23,715

24,000 22,000 20,000

24,647

25,579

26,511 26,390

21,708 19,702

18,000 2010

2015 All Risk Levels

2020

2025

Linear Automation Impact

2030

2035

Expedited Automation Impact

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MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY DEEP-DIVE Industry Overview With 81,271 total jobs, the manufacturing Average Earnings industry represents roughly 32 percent of all jobs in the region. Manufacturing pays $69,240 approximately $9,000 above the average earnings for all industries, while having the Total Jobs highest location quotient of any industry at 3.64. Along with being the largest and most 81,271 specialized industry in the region, the sector is one of the most diverse with 26 percent of its Location Quotient workers identifying as a race/ethnicity other 3.64 than White. With those who identify as White representing 74 percent of the workforce, the Total Diversity Hispanic or Latino population holds the second highest representation at 17 percent. Males 26% have the clear majority in the manufacturing industry as only 30 percent of the workforce is female. This is consistent with national trends for this industry. Age distribution across the manufacturing industry follows closely to the region’s average, with slightly less representation of those 65+. It is evident that the region has a strong dependency on the manufacturing industry, as the economy is centered on several specialized industries and occupations seen below.

Age Distribution for Manufacturing Industry

Manufacturing

11%

Industry Average

22%

14%

0%

22%

21%

10%

20%

Age 14-24

21%

21%

30%

40%

Age 25-34

18%

20%

50%

Age 35-44

60% Age 45-54

17%

70%

80%

Age 55-64

5%

7%

90%

100%

Age 65+

Figure 23: Age Distribution Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

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Race/Ethnicity Distribution of Workers in Industry 6%

Gender Distribution of Workers in Industry

2% 1% Hispanic or Latino

17% 0%

American Indian or Alaska Native White

30%

Black or African American Asian 74%

Males Females 70%

Two or More Races

Figure 24: Race/Ethnicity and Gender Distribution Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

Job and Industry Trends With the uncertainties of the labor market in manufacturing caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, automation, and the current national labor shortage, identifying national industry trends can give insights into how the region may fare moving into the future. As seen in Figure 25, throughout the U.S., the manufacturing industry continues to see record high numbers of new job openings. 35 This would coincide with the steady and increasing pace of job postings in the region for manufacturing occupations. As seen, job openings in the U.S. for manufacturing occupations have continued to increase and are currently at their highest peak. 2021 openings have been significantly higher than previous year averages and openings overall have seen an upward climb since 2011, with September 2021 openings roughly 4.5 times higher than 2011 averages. Regional job postings indicate that posting intensity for the manufacturing industry is about average for the region, although several occupations and employers are putting in significant effort to hire open positions. Both regional job postings and national openings data suggest that demand for manufacturing occupations will be at increasingly high rates moving forward.

Job hires for manufacturing have started to flatline throughout the year. That said, while hires have not been rapidly increasing, hire numbers today are still well above historical averages.

With both openings and hires remaining steady on the national level, no “cool down” of manufacturing labor seems apparent as jobs are in high demand and hiring at record paces.

35

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening description: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm

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Average Annual U.S. Manufacturing Hires and Openings 1200 902

1000

600

200

950

526

500

Jul-11

Sep-11

1010

751

800

400

974

226

264

317

259

247

269

2011

2013

2015

0

395

437

532

332

338

360

2017

2019

Jan-11

Avg. Annual Hires

419

463

Mar-11

May-11

Avg. Annual Openings

2021 Hires

502

2021 Openings

Figure 25: Avg. Annual U.S Manufacturing Hires and Openings, Oct. 2021, JOLTS U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 26 below shows that both Layoffs and Quits for the manufacturing industry in the U.S. have decreased in the latest available monthly data. 36 Quits have significantly decreased, dropping by approximately 35,000. It is important to note that although Quits have decreased, the industry is still seeing record high numbers compared to previous years. Layoffs, on the other hand, remain steady with past year averages and have significantly decreased since spiking in 2020.

Average Annual U.S. Manufacturing Layoffs and Quits 500 400

320

300 200 100

105 116

0 2011

111 104

191

208

104

110

238

262

256

111

109

346 311

135 106

2013 2015 Avg. Annual Layoffs

2017

96

2019 Jan-11 Avg. Annual Quits

114

Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 2021 Layoffs

109

104

Sep-11 2021 Quits

Figure 26: Average Annual U.S. Manufacturing Layoffs and Quits, JOLTS U.S. Census Bureau

The job trendline below indicates that the manufacturing industry in the region has seen substantial growth in the past 10 years in terms of jobs. From 2010 – 2018, the industry saw Layoff and Quit descriptions can be found from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) here: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm

36

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steady increases in annual average employment, roughly 3,500 per year. That said, in 2019, jobs dipped, and fell substantially further down due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Even with the dips in 2019 and 2020, over the 10-year period from 2010 – 2020, job change increased in the region for manufacturing positions by 28 percent. While the past decade has seen growth for the industry, the future projections are showing declines. From 2020 – 2030, jobs are expected to decline by roughly 8,000, regressing back to 2013 job totals. This decline is especially interesting as national openings and hires for the manufacturing industry are continuing at alltime highs.

Trendline for Manufacturing Jobs in the Region 100,000 72,094

80,000

79,493

85,363

92,223 81,271

79,772

78,203

76,654

75,170

73,647

63,657 60,000 40,000

2010-20 Job % Change 28%

20,000

2020-30 Projected Job % Change -9%

0 2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Figure 27: Job Trendline Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

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2030

Top 6-Digit NAICS Industries The top 20 national industries (6-digit) in the manufacturing sector for the region are shown in Table 33. Travel Trailer and Camper Manufacturing is the largest industry sub-sector, with over 15,000 jobs, while also posting a LQ of 190.55, indicating the region is almost exclusively home to these type of jobs in this industry. Similarly, the Motor Home Manufacturing industry has slightly less jobs (holding 10,185) but posts an LQ of 334.19. Both industries have a median annual earnings per job significantly higher than the region average. That said, while both industries saw increases over the past 10 years, both are projected to decline moving forward.

Fourteen of the 20 top national industries for manufacturing in the region are projected for job decline, with only three experiencing declines in the previous 10 years.

NAICS (6-Digit) 336214 336213 337110 326199 336360 336211 332710 321991 332321 336612 332999 326150 336390 322211 321918 332812 339991

National Industries Travel Trailer and Camper Manu.

Motor Home Manu.

Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manu.

All Other Plastics Product Manu.

Motor Vehicle Seating and Interior Trim Manu.

Motor Vehicle Body Manu.

Machine Shops Manufactured Home (Mobile Home) Manu.

Metal Window and Door Manu.

Boat Building All Other Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Product Manu.

Urethane and Other Foam Product (except Polystyrene) Manu.

Other Motor Vehicle Parts Manu.

Corrugated and Solid Fiber Box Manu.

Other Millwork (including Flooring) Metal Coating, Engraving (except Jewelry and Silverware), and Allied Services to Manufacturers Gasket, Packing, and Sealing Device Manu.

2020 Jobs 15,095 10,185

2010 - 20 % Change 74% 48%

2020 - 30 % Change (5%) (21%)

190.55 334.19

Median Ann. Earnings/Job $85,342 $67,712

3,785

100%

26%

17.70

$60,775

3,738

14%

(39%)

6.98

$59,744

2,330

91%

17%

18.39

$58,858

2,140 1,630

11% 39%

(12%) 12%

22.30 3.39

$66,608 $62,207

1,552

22%

(28%)

30.08

$74,523

1,517 1,501

(0%) 108%

(63%) (11%)

12.92 20.70

$57,098 $85,138

1,352

83%

(12%)

9.49

$65,479

1,197

24%

(26%)

18.59

$55,448

1,033

(29%)

(13%)

4.08

$58,089

970

30%

(10%)

5.45

$73,259

858

218%

33%

13.69

$63,789

831

59%

(19%)

8.02

$74,376

805

(4%)

(35%)

15.53

$69,421

LQ

311612

Meat Processed from Carcasses

784

22%

6%

3.11

$65,342

325620

Toilet Preparation Manu.

704

2621%

(3%)

6.92

$55,201

326191

Plastics Plumbing Fixture Manu.

641

93%

7%

24.53

$56,717

Table 33: Top 20 National Industries, 6-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021.4

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Occupation Overview 2-Digit Manufacturing Occupation Characteristics The top five (2-digit) occupations in the Top Occupations (2-Digit) for manufacturing industry represent 88 Manufacturing in the Region percent of all jobs for this sector.

Production occupations represent the 12% Production 3% largest number of positions by a significant margin, with 68 percent, or 55,234 jobs Transportation and 4% falling in this category. Production Material Moving occupations have grown considerably in Office and Administrative 6% the last 10 years (22 percent) but are Support expected to decline by 12 percent in the Installation, 7% next decade. Transportation and Material Maintenance, and Repair Moving, along with Office and Architecture and Administrative Support occupations Engineering represent another 15 percent of total jobs.

Other 68% Both occupations saw tremendous growth in the past decade, but similarly are Figure 28: Top Occupations for Manufacturing Industry, 2-Digit SOC, expected to see declines in jobs moving Emsi 2021.4 forward. Finally, Installation, Maintenance, and Repair occupations represent four percent of the total jobs, while Architecture and Engineering occupations hold three percent. Architecture and Engineering occupations pay considerably above the other listed occupations’ hourly earnings, while the Installation, Maintenance, and Repair occupation is the only group to see projected increases in jobs.

SOC (00)

Occupations 51

Production

53

2020 Jobs

2010-20 % Change

2020-30 % Change

Median Hourly Earnings

55,234

22%

(12%)

$17.96

Transportation and Material Moving

5,696

35%

(3%)

$16.30

43

Office and Administrative Support

5,157

54%

(11%)

$17.62

49

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

2,979

37%

2%

$22.29

17

Architecture and Engineering

2,559

24%

0%

$32.35

All Other

6,657

45%

(4%)

$21.65

11-99

Table 34: Top Occupations for Manufacturing, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.

5-Digit Manufacturing Occupation Characteristics To gain further insight on exactly what jobs are present in the region, the top occupations (5digit) in the manufacturing industry in terms of 2020 jobs are listed. The largest 5-digit occupation in the region is the Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators, with 18,111 jobs in 2020, or 22.30 percent share of total jobs in manufacturing. First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, followed by Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 53 | P a g e

occupations round out the top three. As seen, several occupation groups saw major increases in jobs in the past 10 years (three groups, in particular, over 100 percent change). That said, seven of the 10 occupations listed are expected to decline in the next decade. For more information on the top 5-digit occupations in the Manufacturing industry regarding hires, openings, and separations please see the Appendix. 37

SOC 512098 511011 514121 514031 537062 517011 519124 519061 514072 514041

Occupations (5-Digit)

Miscellaneous Assemblers & Fabricators

2020 Jobs

2010-20 % Change

2020-30 % Change

% of Total Jobs in Industry (2020)

18,111

(5%)

(19%)

22.30%

First-Line Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers

2,996

7%

(4%)

3.70%

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers

2,731

67%

2%

3.40%

2,693

51%

(19%)

3.30%

2,587

174%

(5%)

3.20%

2,483

164%

9%

3.10%

2,192

121%

(9%)

2.70%

2,118

17%

(19%)

2.60%

2,016

8%

(24%)

2.50%

1,949

57%

2%

2.40%

Cutting, Punching, & Press Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Metal & Plastic Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers, Hand Cabinetmakers & Bench Carpenters Coating, Painting, & Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, & Weighers Molding, Coremaking, & Casting Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Metal & Plastic Machinists

Table 35: Top Occupation Characteristics, 6-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021

Wages for Top 5-Digit Occupations

Median hourly earnings, along with 10 th – 90 th percentile earnings are displayed for each of the occupations in the table below. For more detailed information on wage rates for each occupation please see the Wage Rates section in the Appendix. 38

Hires, Separations, and Opening’s data pulled from Emsi 2021.4, methodology for each calculation found here: https://kb.emsidata.com/methodology/hires-methodology/ 38 Wage Rate section identifies 10 th , 25 th , Median (50 th ), 75 t h , and 90 th percentile of wages listed in table 37

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Wage Rates for Top Manufacturing Occupations 10th Pct.

25th Pct.

Median Hourly Earnings

75th Pct.

90th Pct.

$41.12

$35.16

$27.93 $25.05

$23.58

$29.74

$28.62

$27.79

$23.81

$22.30 $28.44 $18.77

$17.61

$12.65

$16.96

$17.14

$13.25

$12.57

$15.16

$10.89

$16.91

$18.64

$18.71

$12.75

$12.87

$13.33

$20.85 $16.97

$11.51

$13.81

6-Digit SOC Occupation Number Figure 29: Occupation Wage Breakdown, Emsi 2021.4

Occupation Characteristics The characteristics for the 334 manufacturing occupations that employed workers in the region in 2020 are highlighted below. As seen, most occupations require a high-school diploma or equivalent, while also requiring no work experience. Moderate-Term On-The-Job-Training (OTJT) is the most typical training offered by employers, Long-Term and Short-Term OTJT is less commonly offered. Average median hourly earnings ranged from $15.56 to $37.50 dependent upon on education required.

Typical Entry Level Education Required Master's Degree

2

Doctoral or Professional Degree

3

Some College, No Degree

4

Postsecdondary Nondegree Award Associate's Degree No Formal Educational Credential Bachelor's Degree High School Diploma or Equivalent

Typical Work Experience Required 16 24

11 18 56 74

294 166

5 Years or More

Less Than 5 Years

Figure 30: Typical Entry Level Education and Work Experience Required, Emsi 2021.4

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None

Typical On-The-Job Training Offered 130

140 120

98

100 69

80 60 40

25

20

10

2

0

Internship/Residency

Apprenticeship

Long-Term OTJT

Short-Term OTJT

None

Moderate-Term OTJT

Figure 31: Typical On-The-Job Training Offered, Emsi 2021.4

Average Median Hourly Earnings based on Education Required Average Median Hourly Earnings for All Manufacturing Occupations = $23.80

$40.00 $35.00

$36.06

$37.50

$30.00 $24.47

$25.00 $20.00 $15.00

$15.56

$20.51

$10.00 $5.00 $0.00 No Formal Educational High School Diploma or Credential Equivalent

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree or Higher

Figure 32: Average Median Hourly Earnings for Education Level Required, Emsi 2021.4

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Manufacturing Job Posting Data (January 2020 – September 2021) Job posting data was scraped from online advertisements by employers in the South Bend Elkhart region from January 2020 to September 2021. While postings are not synonymous with job vacancies, this data is a good measure to show the level of effort employers are putting into hiring certain occupations, as well as the skills sought out by businesses. 39 The section below shows the high-level overview of all job postings in the region regarding the manufacturing Industry, including location, occupations, top companies and titles, as well as top skills and qualifications listed.

Overall, in the South Bend - Elkhart region for the manufacturing industry, there was 10,663 total job postings from January 2020 to September 2021, of which 40,542 were unique. 40 These numbers represent a Posting Intensity of 4-to-1, meaning that for every four postings there is one unique job posting. With the regional average posting intensity being 4-to-1, this indicates that for all manufacturing occupations, employers are putting in average effort toward hiring.

Additionally, median posting duration was 35 days, indicating that on average, manufacturing employers keep job postings live and accept applications for 35 days in the region before removing the post, two days longer than the regional average.

Region Posting Data 10,663

4:1

35 days

Unique Postings

Posting Intensity

Median Posting Duration

40,542 Total Postings

Regional Average: 4:1

Regional Average: 33 days

Table 36: Region Posting Data, Emsi 2021.4

Location Analysis St. Joseph County had the largest number of job postings with 5,583, accounting for 52 percent of all postings. Elkhart County was just behind in terms of total posts with 4,428 postings, roughly 1,000 less than St. Joseph County and representing 42 percent of all postings. Marshall County, the smallest of all three counties, had 652 postings, or 6 percent of the total share. Elkhart County, while smaller than St. Joseph in terms of population, holds a considerable amount of manufacturing jobs and therefore had more job postings per person for the manufacturing industry than any of the three counties.

County St. Joseph County, IN Elkhart County, IN Marshall County, IN Total

Region 5,583 4,428 652 10,663

Table 37: Job Posting Breakdown, Emsi 2021.4

JPA and LMI Guidebook, Emsi Labor Market Data, 2021, https://www.economicmodeling.com/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/EMSI_Contextualizing_Real_Time_Report_2015.pdf 40 Unique Postings, Emsi Knowledge Base, 2021, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/unique-jobs-postings/ 39

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Job Posting Trends Job postings for the manufacturing sector in the South Bend - Elkhart region over the past five years have shown an overall increase in total posts. While rising steadily until mid-2019, a rapid fall of posts occurred in the latter half of 2019 and moving into 2020. Job postings continued to fall downward each month during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, until rebounding in July of 2020. In the past year job postings for the manufacturing industry have risen rapidly and are currently at all-time highs with close to 1,800/month.

Manufacturing Job Posting Trendline 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 Sep 2017 Mar 2018 Sep 2018 Mar 2019 Sep 2019 Mar 2020 Sep 2020 Mar 2021 Sep 2021 Figure 33: Manufacturing Job Posting Trendline, Emsi 2021.4

Top Companies Posting for Manufacturing Several companies had over 1,000 job postings during the specified timeframe in the region, with Lippert Components, Inc., having the highest number of total unique postings at 1,337.

One clear observation is the significant range of posting intensities. As seen, two companies both are spending significant effort on advertising for open positions, as they are posting the same job opportunity eight to 10 times per month.

Company

Unique Postings 1,337

Total Postings 5,066

Posting Intensity 1 to 4

Lippert Components, Inc. Valmont Industries, Inc.

281

2,369

1 to 8

Dexter Axle Company

214

358

1 to 1

Menard, Inc.

192

488

1 to 2

Honeywell International, Inc.

191

1,865

1 to 10

Table 38: Top Company Postings Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

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Top Occupations Posted for Manufacturing Industry First-line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers was the most posted occupation in the manufacturing industry in the region from the period of January 2020 to September 2021.

With 724 monthly postings, first-line supervisors have roughly 300 more monthly postings than the second highest occupation. Posting intensity for manufacturing occupations remains about average for the region, that said, manufacturing occupations tend to be severely underrepresented in job postings. 41 This is because manufacturing jobs often rely on other forms of communication to get job information out, including walk-ins and referrals.

Occupation (SOC) First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Industrial Engineers Production Workers, All Other Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Helpers--Production Workers Stockers and Order Fillers Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Unique Postings 724 451 407 378 366 308 300 294

Total Postings 2,929 1,679 1,912 1,767 952 885 1,397 1,287

213

738

204

776

Posting Intensity 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3

Table 39: Top Occupations Posted Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

Qualifications and Skills Top posted qualifications for the manufacturing industry include Linux Certified Instructor, Commercial Driver’s License (CDL), and Security Clearance. While qualifications vary in time and monetary commitment, several resources are available in the region to help obtain the qualifications that are wanted by employers. A full list of all qualifications posted for the manufacturing industry can be found in the Appendix.

Qualification

Postings with Qualification

Linux Certified Instructor Commercial Driver's License (CDL) Security Clearance Bachelor Of Science in Business Certified Forklift Operator Master Of Business Administration (MBA) CDL Class B License Six Sigma Green Belt Certification Certified Welder Professional in Human Resources

553 413 248 197 178 146 61 52 45 39

Table 40: Top Qualifications and Skills Posted Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

LMI vs. JPA, Emsi Labor Market Data, https://www.economicmodeling.com/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/EMSI_Contextualizing_Real_Time_Report_2015.pdf 41

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Top Skills Posted

Top Hard Skills •Auditing •Packaging and Labeling •Forklift Truck •Machinery •New Product Development

Top Soft Skills •Communication •Management •Operations •Problem Solving •Customer Service

Figure 34: Top Hard and Soft Skills Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

The top five hard and soft skills for all job posts for manufacturing are listed above. That said, the chart below shows hard skills with the largest gap in postings and profiles. Profiles are built from scraping job history, education, skills, location, and other characteristics from over 100 million workers in the U.S. 42 By comparing what skills are readily available in the workforce, and what skills are listed on job postings, a clear opportunity for the current population to obtain valuable skills can be found. Forklift truck operation had the largest gap in postings to profiles, while machinery experience had the second highest. While auditing and packaging and labeling had the highest overall mentions in postings, the gap between profiles mentioning these skills is smaller than several other skills listed. Many of the top overall hard skills posted overlap with the top skills with the largest gap in postings and profiles.

42

Profiles, Emsi Labor Market Data, 2021, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/profiles/

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Top Gap in Hard Skills Posted for Manufacturing Forklift Truck Machinery Palletizing Power Tool Operation Blueprinting Manufacturing Processes Good Manufacturing Practices Corrective And Preventive Action (CAPA) Auditing Packaging And Labeling Environment Health And Safety 0

100

200

Profiles

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 1,000

Postings

Figure 35: Top Gap in Hard Skills Manufacturing, Emsi 2021.4

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HEALTHCARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE INDUSTRY DEEPDIVE Industry Overview With 33,033 total jobs, the healthcare Average Earnings industry has the second largest number of jobs in the region. Healthcare industry jobs $61,582 in the region provide roughly the same as the average earnings for all industries, as Total Jobs earnings for healthcare workers are about $1,000 higher. While having a considerable 33,033 number of jobs, the healthcare industry posts a location quotient of 0.90, indicating Location Quotient that this industry is not particularly 0.90 specialized in the region. The healthcare industry has above average diversity Total Diversity representation, two percent above the average as 24 percent of all workers in this 24% sector identify as a race/ethnicity other than White. With those who identify as White representing 76 percent of the workforce, the Black or African American population holds the second highest representation at 14 percent. Females have the clear majority representation in the healthcare industry as only 18 percent of the workforce is male. This is consistent with national trends for this industry. Age distribution across the healthcare industry follows closely to the region’s average, with the largest difference being that the sector has an older population, most likely due to the need for many positions to have higher education requirements. As the sector is projected to grow in the coming years as the region and nation ages, the importance of skilled labor in the healthcare industry is increasingly important.

Age Distrubtion for Healthcare Industry Healthcare

10%

Industry Average

22%

14% 0%

22%

21%

10%

20%

Age 14-24

21%

21% 30%

Age 25-34

40% Age 35-44

19%

20% 50%

60% Age 45-54

7%

17% 70%

Age 55-64

80%

7% 90%

Age 65+

Figure 36: Industry Age Distribution Healthcare, Emsi 2021.4

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100%

Race/Ethnicity Distribution of Workers in Industry 2%

1%

0%

6%

14%

Gender Distribution of Workers in Industry

Hispanic or Latino

18%

White

Males

Black or African American Asian

Females

Two or More Races 76%

Other

82%

Figure 37: Industry Race Ethnicity and Gender Distribution Healthcare, Emsi 2021.4

Job and Industry Trends With the uncertainties of the labor market in healthcare caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the current national labor shortage, identifying national industry trends can give insights into how the region may fare moving into the future. As seen in Figure 38, throughout the U.S. the healthcare industry continues to see record high numbers of new job openings. 43 This would coincide with the steady and increasing pace of job postings in the region for healthcare occupations. As seen, job openings in the U.S. for healthcare occupations have continued to increase and are currently at their highest peak. In 2021, openings have been significantly higher than previous year averages and openings overall have seen an upward climb since 2011. Regional job postings indicate that posting intensity for the healthcare industry is above average for the region, while several occupations and employers are putting in significant effort to hire open positions. Both regional job postings and national openings data suggest that demand for healthcare occupations will be at increasingly high rates moving forward, especially for occupations with higher education and qualification requirements.

Job hires for healthcare continued to rise throughout 2021. With both openings and hires rising on the national level, no “cool down” of healthcare labor seems apparent as jobs are in high demand and hiring at record paces. Additional job posting data indicates that Registered Nurses have a hire to job posting ratio of 1-to-10, indicating that for every 10 job posts, only one hire is being made for this occupation. This ratio is significantly above other top occupations listed (as many have a ratio of 1-to-1), further solidifying the high demand for certain healthcare positions, especially those with higher qualifications.

43

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening description: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm

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Average Annual U.S. Healthcare Hires and Openings 2,500 1,813

2,000 1,500 1,000

916 545

1,341

1,293

1,911

1,450

607

500 0

1,045

1,186

1,768

792

409

461

535

2011

2013

2015

Avg. Annual Hires

572

625

623

626

656

2017

2019

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Avg. Annual Openings

763

788

Jul-11

Sep-11

2021 Hires

2021 Openings

Figure 38: Avg. Annual U.S. Healthcare Hires and Openings, Oct. 2021, JOLTS U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 39 below shows that both Layoffs and Quits for the Healthcare industry in the U.S. have slightly decreased. 44 It is important to note that although quits have decreased, the industry is still seeing record high numbers compared to previous years. Layoffs on the other hand remain below past year averages and have significantly decreased since spiking in 2020.

Average Annual U.S. Healthcare Layoffs and Quits 700

606

600

479

500 400 300

215

269

328

362

407

570 553

454

476

88

108

89

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

200 100 0

131

131

119

136

136

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Avg. Annual Layoffs

167 Jan-11

Avg. Annual Quits

2021 Layoffs

119

108

Sep-11 2021 Quits

Figure 39: Avg. Annual Healthcare U.S. Layoffs and Quits, Oct. 2021, JOLTS U.S. Census Bureau

While seeing the rapid growth of openings and low layoff trends in the nation for the healthcare industry, a regional job trendline below indicates that the healthcare industry in Layoff and Quit descriptions can be found from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) here: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm

44

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South Bend - Elkhart region has experienced some of this growth in the past 10 years in terms of jobs. From 2010 – 2020, the industry saw steady increase of jobs, a 14 percent increase over this time span or roughly 4,000 new jobs. Jobs did dip slightly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic but compared other industries that were impacted this dip is relatively insignificant.

Future job projections for the industry in the next 10 years continue the moderate growth experienced and align with current national trends. From 2020 – 2030, jobs are expected to grow by roughly 3,000, an increase of 10 percent. Although projections are not certain, the combination of an aging population with an increased focus on healthcare and eldercare, along with the current national trends in healthcare specified above, contributes to the overall growth projected for the industry.

Trendline for Healthcare Jobs in the Region 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000

29,037

29,752

31,093

32,765

33,235

33,033

34,002

34,744

35,308

35,865

36,345

25,000 20,000 15,000

2020-30 Projected Job % Change 10%

2010-20 Job % Change 14%

10,000 5,000 0 2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Figure 40: Healthcare Job Trendline, Emsi 2021.4

Top 6-Digit NAICS Industries Top 20 National Industries (6-Digit) in Healthcare Sector The top 20 national industries (6-digit) in the healthcare sector for the region are shown below. General Medical and Surgical Hospitals is the largest national industry within the healthcare sector, with close to 10,000 jobs and posting a LQ of 1.14. The General Medical and Surgical Hospitals industry holds more than double the next largest national industry in terms of total jobs, while also having above average median annual earnings. That said, the Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) is the second largest national industry in the healthcare sector, holding roughly 5,000 jobs and holding an LQ of 1.02. The median annual earnings per job for this national industry is $101,386, significantly above the average for the region. Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities) is the third largest national industry, with 3,582 jobs and holding a LQ above 1 at 1.29. Median annual earnings for this national industry are well below average, approx. $15,000 less. Seventeen of the 20 top national industries for healthcare in the region are projected for job growth in the next 10 years. The particularly moderate LQ’s for each national industry indicate that the region does not hold a competitive advantage for several healthcare specialties, and the annual earnings per job fluctuate significantly depending on industry type.

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NAICS (6-Digit) 622110 621111 623110 624120 624310 621210 623311 621610 624410 621420 624190 623220 621511 623312 621340 623210 624110 621493 621310 621320

National Industries General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities) Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities Vocational Rehabilitation Services Offices of Dentists Continuing Care Retirement Communities Home Health Care Services Child Day Care Services Outpatient Mental Health and Substance Abuse Centers Other Individual and Family Services Residential Mental Health and Substance Abuse Facilities Medical Laboratories Assisted Living Facilities for the Elderly Offices of Physical, Occupational and Speech Therapists, and Audiologists Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability Facilities Child and Youth Services Freestanding Ambulatory Surgical and Emergency Centers Offices of Chiropractors Offices of Optometrists

2020 Jobs

2010 - 20 % Change

2020 - 30 % Change

9,999

21%

7%

1.14

$67,558

4,842

18%

6%

1.02

$101,386

3,582

14%

11%

1.29

$44,798

1,668

87%

28%

0.44

$27,287

1,593 1,561

9% 6%

11% 12%

2.97 0.95

$40,087 $74,752

1,246

10%

13%

1.38

$39,266

1,069 898

17% 9%

(14%) 18%

0.39 0.60

$55,269 $26,836

651

68%

18%

1.38

$46,551

647

(11%)

12%

0.78

$59,482

591

38%

26%

1.36

$43,861

489

(29%)

(32%)

1.28

$66,949

429

(31%)

(7%)

0.51

$32,439

409

97%

34%

0.57

$50,825

385

(20%)

2%

0.53

$37,306

325

234%

59%

0.87

$42,181

284

134%

68%

0.96

$73,727

251 239

8% 22%

6% 5%

1.01 0.97

$42,126 $44,425

LQ

Median Annual Earnings Per Job

Table 41: Top 20 National Industries, 6-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021.4

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Occupation Overview 2-Digit Healthcare Occupation Characteristics The top five (2-digit) occupations in Top Occupations (2-Digit) for Healthcare the healthcare industry represent 84 in the Region percent of all jobs for this sector.

Healthcare Practitioners and 16% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical occupations represent the Technical 3% 35% largest number of positions, with 35 Healthcare Support percent, or 11,497 jobs, falling in this 6% category. Healthcare Practitioners Office and Administrative and Technical occupations have Support grown considerably in the last 10 Community and Social years (18 percent) and are expected 14% Service to grow by another nine percent in Food Preparation and the next decade. Healthcare Support Serving Related occupations make up another 25 Other 25% percent of the total healthcare industry jobs. Occupations in this Figure 41: Top Occupations for Healthcare Industry, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi field saw tremendous growth in the 2021.4 past 10 years (26 percent) and are expected to continue to grow rapidly the next decade (13 percent growth). Finally, Office and Administrative Support, Community and Social Service, and Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations round out the top five occupation groups for the healthcare industry.

Community and Social Service occupations saw the largest growth of the five occupations in the last 10 years (36 percent) and are projected to continue to see the largest increase in jobs percentage wise (16 percent growth). That said, Healthcare Practitioners and Technical occupations hold the highest median hourly earnings of the group by a large margin, with All Other occupations having higher earnings than the rest of the top occupations listed.

SOC (00)

Occupations 29

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

31

2020 Jobs

2010-20 % Change

2020-30 % Change

11,497

18%

9%

Healthcare Support

8,349

26%

13%

43

Office and Administrative Support

4,692

1%

2%

21

Community and Social Service

2,048

36%

16%

35

Food Preparation and Serving Related

1,113

21%

5%

All Other

6,024

4%

10%

11- 99

Table 42: Top Occupations for Healthcare, 2-Digit SOC, Emsi 2021.4

5-Digit Healthcare Occupation Characteristics To gain further insight on exactly what jobs are present in the region, the top occupations (5digit) in the healthcare industry in terms of 2020 jobs are listed. The largest 5-digit occupation in the region is Registered Nurses, with 4,633 jobs in 2020. Home Health and Personal Care 67 | P a g e

Aides (3,189 jobs), followed by Nursing Assistants (2,542 jobs) round out the top three. As seen, several occupation groups saw major increases in jobs in the past 10 years (all but two occupation groups saw 20+ percent growth). That said, each occupation group listed except for Office Clerks, General, were also projected to see job growth in the next decade. In particular, the top five occupations in terms of total jobs all grew considerably, accounting for 2,522 new jobs. These same occupations are projected to account for 1,230 new jobs in the next 10 years.

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses saw a steep decline in jobs from 2010 to 2020 (27 percent decrease). While this occupation had been steadily declining, the region lost roughly 200 jobs during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information on the top 5-digit occupations in the Healthcare industry regarding hires, openings, and separations please see the Appendix. 45

Top 6-Digit Occupations in the Healthcare Industry (in terms of 2020 Jobs) 2020 Jobs

2010-20 % Change

2020-30 % Change

% of Total Jobs in Industry (2020)

SOC

Occupations (6-Digit)

29-1141

Registered Nurses

4,633

21%

7%

14.00%

31-1128

Home Health and Personal Care Aides

3,189

31%

15%

9.70%

31-1131

Nursing Assistants

2,542

24%

9%

7.70%

31-9092

Medical Assistants

1,164

26%

15%

3.50%

43-4171

Receptionists and Information Clerks

948

34%

7%

2.90%

29-2061

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

875

(27%)

9%

2.60%

43-9061

Office Clerks, General

821

13%

(1%)

2.50%

703

34%

11%

2.10%

579

29%

0%

1.80%

570

43%

12%

1.70%

43-6013 29-2018 21-1093

Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Clinical Laboratory Technologists and Technicians Social and Human Service Assistants

Table 43: Top Occupation Characteristics, 6-Digit NAICS, Emsi 2021.4

Wages Rates for Top 5-Digit Occupations Median hourly earnings, along with 10 th – 90 th percentile earnings, are displayed for each of the occupations in the table below. For more detailed information on wage rates for each occupation please see the Wage Rates section in the Appendix. 46

Hires, Separations, and Opening’s data pulled from Emsi 2021.4, methodology for each calculation found here: https://kb.emsidata.com/methodology/hires-methodology/ 46 Wage Rate section identifies 10 th , 25 th , Median (50 th ), 75 t h , and 90 th percentile of wages listed in table 45

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Wage Rates for Top Healthcare Occupations 10th Pct.

25th Pct.

Median Hourly Earnings

75th Pct.

90th Pct.

$40.91

$29.84 $30.15 $20.40

$31.10 $18.04

$24.67

$23.43

$11.48 $9.79

$11.17

$19.38

$19.08 $23.33

$14.74 $14.00

$24.83

$16.35

$12.77

$16.33

$14.61 $19.38

$10.69

$10.49

$17.37

$12.72

$19.64

$15.97

$13.47

$11.62

6-Digit SOC Occupation Number Figure 42: Wage Percentiles Healthcare, Emsi 2021.4

Occupation Characteristics The characteristics for the 274 healthcare occupations that employed workers in the region in 2020 are highlighted below. As seen, the majority of occupations require a high-school diploma or equivalent, while a required bachelor’s degree is closely followed. No work experience is the most typically required selection for healthcare occupations, and On-The-Job-Training (OTJT) is not typically offered. While this may seem unusual, work experience and training data was considered for each occupation within the region, regardless of skill level and pay. The average median hourly earnings for healthcare occupations ranged from $13.11 to $52.37 dependent upon education required.

Typical Entry Level Education Required 90

High School Diploma or Equivalent

17

79

Bachelor's Degree

26 20 19 19 18

No Formal Educational Credential Master's Degree Associate's Degree Doctoral or Professional Degree Postsecdondary Nondegree Award Some College, No Degree

Typical Work Experience Required

3

31

226

5 Years or More

Less Than 5 Years

None

Figure 43: Typical Entry Level Education and Work Experience Required, Emsi 2021.4

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Typical On-The-Job Training Offered 146

160 140 120 100 80

61

60

40

40 20 0

16

8

3 Apprenticeship

Long-Term OTJT

Internship/Residency

Moderate-Term OTJT

Short-Term OTJT

None

Figure 44: Typical On-The-Job Training Offered, Emsi 2021.4

Average Median Hourly Earnings based on Education Required Average Median Hourly Earnings for All Healthcare Occupations = $27.17

$60.00 $50.00 $40.00

$52.37

$31.22

$30.00 $20.00

$13.11

$19.11

$25.71

High School Diploma or Equivalent

Associate's Degree

$10.00 $0.00

No Formal Educational Credential

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree or Higher

Figure 45: Average Median Hourly Earnings for Education Level Required, Emsi 2021.4

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Healthcare Job Posting Data (January 2020 – September 2021) Job posting data was scraped from online advertisements by employers in the South Bend Elkhart region from January 2020 to September 2021. While postings are not synonymous with job vacancies, this data is a good measure to show the level of effort employers are putting into hiring certain occupations, as well as the skills sought out by businesses. 47 The section below shows a high-level overview of all job postings in the region regarding the healthcare industry, including location, occupations, top companies and titles, as well as top skills and qualifications listed.

Overall, in the healthcare industry for the South Bend - Elkhart region, there were 58,409 total job postings from January 2020 to September 2021, of which 12,619 were unique. 48 These numbers represent a Posting Intensity of 5-to-1, meaning that for every five postings there is one unique job posting. With the regional average posting intensity being 4-to-1, this indicates that healthcare employers are working harder to post open positions and doing so more often.

Additionally, median posting duration was 35 days, indicating that on average, healthcare employers keep job postings live and accept applications for 35 days in the region before removing the post, two days longer than the regional average.

Region Posting Data 12,619

5:1

35 days

Unique Postings

Posting Intensity

Median Posting Duration

58,409 Total Postings

Regional Average: 4:1

Regional Average: 33 days

Table 44: Healthcare Posting Data, Emsi 2021.4

Location Analysis St. Joseph County had the largest number of healthcare job postings with 7,763, accounting for 62 percent of all postings.

Elkhart County had a total of 3,370 postings, roughly 4,500 less than St. Joseph County and representing 30 percent of all postings. Marshall County, the smallest of all three counties, had 1,126 postings, or nine percent of the total share. Postings closely followed total population of each county.

County

Number of Postings

St. Joseph County, IN

7,763

Elkhart County, IN

3,370

Marshall County, IN

1,126

Total

12,619

Table 45: Job Posting Breakdown, Emsi 2021.4

JPA and LMI Guidebook, Emsi-Burning Glass, 2021, https://www.economicmodeling.com/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/EMSI_Contextualizing_Real_Time_Report_2015.pdf 48 Unique Postings, Emsi-Burning Glass, 2021, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/unique-jobs-postings/ 47

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Job Postings Trends Job postings for the healthcare sector in the South Bend - Elkhart region over the past five years have shown an overall increase in total posts. Most notably postings spiked in mid-2019, and rapidly fell in the latter half of 2019 and moving into 2020. While job postings were largely unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant increase in postings from March 2021 to present is seen as demand for healthcare workers increased dramatically. Highlighting the current demand, monthly postings in September of 2021 were within 100 postings less than the apex of total posts back in mid-2019, with potential signs of continued increases.

Healthcare Job Posting Trendline 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Sep 2017

Mar 2018

Sep 2018

Mar 2019

Sep 2019

Mar 2020

Sep 2020

Mar 2021

Sep 2021

Figure 46: Healthcare Job Posting Trendline, Emsi 2021.4

Top Companies Posting for Healthcare Several companies had over 1,000 total job postings during the specified timeframe in the region, with the Theracare of New York having the highest number of total unique postings at 471. One clear observation is the significant range of posting intensities. As seen, both Sunbelt Staffing, LLC, and Trilogy Health Services, LLC, are spending significant effort on advertising for open positions, as they have a unique to total job posting intensity of 1-to-7, well above the average occupation intensity of 1-to-4. Top posted job titles for both companies include Certified Nursing Assistants, Licensed Practical Nurses, and Dietary Aides. This could indicate a labor shortage for these positions, or a lack of qualified applicants in the region.

Company

Unique Postings

Total Postings

Posing Intensity

Theracare of New York, Inc.

471

2,532

1-to-5

Sunbelt Staffing, LLC

440

568

1-to-1

Home Instead Senior Care

435

2,900

1-to-7

Procare Therapy, Inc.

428

569

1-to-1

Trilogy Health Services, LLC

428

2,958

1-to-7

Table 46: Top Companies Postings Healthcare, 2021.4

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Top Occupations Posted for Healthcare Industry Registered Nurses (RNs) was the most posted occupation in the healthcare industry for the region from the period of January 2020 to September 2021. With 1,825 monthly postings, RNs have roughly 700 more monthly postings than the second highest occupation of Home Health and Personal Care Aides. Healthcare occupations had significantly higher total posts than several other industries and posting intensities for a majority of the top occupations below are well above the regional average. This would indicate that employers are spending significant time, and effort, on advertising and promoting open positions. Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses in particular had the highest posting intensity of 1-to-7.

Occupation (SOC) Registered Nurses Home Health and Personal Care Aides Nursing Assistants Speech-Language Pathologists Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Social and Human Service Assistants Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists Medical and Health Services Managers Medical Assistants Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

Unique Postings (Jan 2020 – Sep 2021) 1,875 1,152 874 631 582 450 288 274 255 223

Total Postings 10,295 6,820 4,796 1,602 3,856 2,534 543 1,136 1,011 750

Posting Intensity 1-to-5 1-to-6 1-to-5 1-to-3 1-to-7 1-to-6 1-to-2 1-to-4 1-to-4 1-to-3

Table 47: Top Occupations Posted, Emsi 2021.4

Top Qualifications Posted for Healthcare Industry Top posted qualifications for the healthcare industry include Certified Nursing Assistant (mentioned in 1,054 listings) and Licensed Practical Nurse (mentioned in 977 listings). Both were by far the most sought-after qualification within the healthcare industry. This data aligns with the occupation postings above, as both Registered Nurses and Nursing Assistants have higher than average posting intensities. While qualifications vary in time and monetary commitment, several resources are available in the region to help obtain the qualifications that are wanted by employers. A full list of all qualifications posted for the healthcare industry can be found in the Appendix.

Qualification

Postings with Qualification

Certified Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Certificate Of Clinical Competence In Speech-Language Pathology (CCC-SLP) Bachelor Of Science in Nursing (BSN) Nurse Practitioner Licensed Vocational Nurses Commercial Driver's License (CDL) Licensed Clinical Social Worker (LCSW) Licensed Marriage and Family Therapist (LMFT) Patient Care Technician

1,054 977 274 250 191 189 179 164 137 133

Table 48: Top Qualifications Posted, Emsi 2021.4

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Top Hard and Soft Skills Listed in Postings for Healthcare

Top Hard Skills •Nursing •Cardiopulmonary Resucitiation •Medical Records •Caregiving •Infection Control

Top Soft Skills •Communication •Customer Service •Management •Valid Driver's License •Compassion

Figure 47: Top Hard and Soft Skills for Healthcare, Emsi 2021.4

The top five hard and soft skills of all job posts for healthcare are listed above. That said, the chart below shows hard skills with the largest gap in postings and profiles. Profiles are built from scraping job history, education, skills, location, and other characteristics from over 100 million workers in the U.S. 49 By comparing what skills are readily available in the workforce and what skills are listed on job postings, a clear opportunity for the current population to obtain valuable skills can be found. Nursing had the largest gap in postings to profiles, while also having the largest total mentions in job postings. Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) experience had the second highest skills gap. Many of the top posted overall hard skills overlap with the top skills with the largest gap in postings and profiles.

49

Profiles, Emsi Labor Market Data, 2021, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/profiles/

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Top Gap in Hard Skills Posted for Healthcare Nursing Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) Infection Control Caregiving Nursing Care Home Health Care Speech-Language Pathology Long-Term Care Medical Terminology Treatment Planning 0

500 Postings

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Profiles

Figure 48: Top Hard Skills Gap Healthcare, Emsi 2021.4

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JOB POSTING ANALYSIS Job Postings Breakdown Job posting data was scraped from online advertisements by employers in the South Bend Elkhart region from January 2020 to September 2021. While postings are not synonymous with job vacancies, this data is a good measure to show the level of effort employers are putting into hiring certain occupations, as well as the skills sought out by businesses. 50 The section below shows a high-level overview of all job postings in the region, including location, salary, education experience, occupations, top companies and titles, as well as top skills and qualifications listed.

Overall, in the South Bend - Elkhart region, there was 618,043 total job postings from January 2020 to September 2021, of which 141,804 were unique. 51 These numbers represent a Posting Intensity of 4-to-1, meaning that for every four postings there is one unique job posting.

Average posting intensity can be compared across sectors and occupations to see if employers in those sectors are posting more frequently and have a higher demand for open positions.

Additionally, median posting duration was 33 days, indicating that on average, employers keep job postings live and accept applications for 33 days in the region before removing the post.

Region Posting Data 141,804

4:1

33 days

Unique Postings

Posting Intensity

Median Posting Duration

618,043 Total Postings

Regional Average: 4:1

Regional Average: 33 days

Table 49: Region Posting Data, Emsi 2021.4

Location Analysis St. Joseph County had the largest number of job postings with 79,043, accounting for 56 percent of all postings. Elkhart County had a total of 51,165 postings, roughly 28,000 less than St. Joseph County and representing 36 percent of all postings.

Marshall County, the smallest of all three counties, had 11,596 postings, or eight percent of the total share. Postings nearly aligned with total population of each county, as there was roughly one post for every four people in each county.

County

Number of Postings

St. Joseph County, IN

79,043

Elkhart County, IN

51,165

Marshall County, IN

11,596

Total

141,804

Table 50: Job Posting Breakdown, Emsi 2021.4

JPA and LMI Guidebook, Emsi Labor Market Data, 2021, https://www.economicmodeling.com/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/EMSI_Contextualizing_Real_Time_Report_2015.pdf 51 Unique Postings, Emsi Labor Market Data, 2021, https://kb.emsidata.com/glossary/unique-jobs-postings/ 50

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The advertised salary and total job postings in the region have had a somewhat inverse relationship over the past year and a half. As seen, the advertised salary for all job postings has been relatively stagnant, hovering between $26.00 and $24.00. Job postings have been increasing in volume since January 2020, peaking at 21,500 in May of 2021. In early February of 2021, advertised salary started to dip, bottoming out in April 2021, and slowly rising. The less visible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on job postings could be partly explained by the increase in postings for high demand positions including nurses, truck drivers, customer service representatives, and other occupations directly impacted by COVID-19.

Regional Postings and Wages 25,000

$30.00

20,000

$25.00 $20.00

15,000

$15.00

10,000

$10.00

5,000

$5.00

0

$0.00

Job Postings

Advertised Salary

Figure 49: Regional Postings and Wages Trend, Emsi 2021.4

Advertised Wage and Salary Of the 35,415 advertised salary Advertised Salary in Region observations (25 percent of the 141,804 matching postings), the 1% 5% 2% median advertised salary for all job $10,000-$59,999 postings was $22.74/hr. This data 30% aligns very closely with the average $60,000-$109,999 salary for each occupation of $22.49 $110,000-$159,999 described earlier in the report. The largest percentage of job posting $160,000-$209,999 salaries (62 percent) fell within the $210,000-$259,999 $10,000 – $59,999 range. 30 percent of job postings fell within the $60,000 62% - $109,999 range, while the remaining eight percent listed salaries above Figure 50: Advertised Salary in Region, Emsi 2021.4 $110,000.

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Education and Experience Listings Approximately 34 percent of all job Education Listings for Job Posts in postings in the South Bend - Elkhart region required a high school diploma Region or GED, while 25 percent required a 4% 1% bachelor’s degree. These percentages align extremely closely to the No Education Listed 39% 25% educational attainment of the region, High school or GED with 33 percent of the total Associate's degree population 25 years or older at the high school graduate level of Bachelor's degree attainment, and 25 percent having a 9% Master's degree bachelor’s degree or higher. While no education was listed for 39 percent of Ph.D. or professional degree all postings, this does not mean that 34% these postings require no education, but instead were not listed in the job Figure 51: Education Listings in Job Posts, Emsi 2021.4 post. Only five percent of all postings required a master’s degree or higher, and nine percent required an associate degree.

Experience Listings for Job Posts in Region 2% 8% No Experience Listed 54% 19%

0 - 1 Years 2 - 3 Years 4 - 6 Years

Over half of all job postings (55 percent) had no experience listed, while 35 percent had 0-3 years required. The remaining 10 percent of postings required four years of experience or more. While experience is not always listed on job postings, the lack of experience required for the majority of jobs could be an indication of a job market that is in deep need for applicants and recruitment.

7+ Years 16%

Figure 52: Experience in Job Postings, Emsi 2021.4

Top Companies Posting in Region Several companies had over 1,000 job postings during the specified timeframe in the region, with the Beacon Medical Group, Inc. having the highest number of total unique postings at 4,077. Three of the top five companies with the most postings belong to the medical/health industry, with several other health and well-being companies included further down the list.

Several manufacturing and transportation focused companies are also included on the list, including several trucking specific employers. One clear observation is the significant number 78 | P a g e

of total postings by health employers. With an average posting intensity of 8-to-1, the health employers listed are pushing open opportunities at a rate that is double the region average (4to-1).

Company

Unique Postings

Total Postings

Posting Intensity

Beacon Medical Group, Inc. Soliant Health, Inc. Lippert Components, Inc. Trinity Health Corporation CRST International, Inc. Creative Financial Staffing LLC U.S. Xpress, Inc. University of Notre Dame Wal-Mart, Inc. Forest River, Inc. Roehl Transport, Inc. Great Clips, Inc. CVS Health Corporation Lowe's Companies, Inc. Goshen Health System, Inc. C.R. England, Inc. Dollar General Corporation Care.com, Inc. Aerotek, Inc. Elwood Staffing Services, Inc.

4,077 1,509 1,337 1,154 1,117 1,086 1,070 975 906 899 846 840 754 735 728 705 635 618 589 518

41,955 2,536 5,066 8,683 5,420 4,500 7,068 3,887 5,742 1,823 2,496 2,786 10,478 6,164 2,955 2,182 2,061 1,079 2,626 1,061

10-to-1 2-to-1 4-to-1 8-to-1 5-to-1 4-to-1 7-to-1 4-to-1 6-to-1 2-to-1 3-to-1 3-to-1 14-to-1 8-to-1 4-to-1 3-to-1 3-to-1 2-to-1 4-to-1 2-to-1

Table 51: Top Companies Postings Healthcare, 2021.4

Postings by Industry The industry with the most job postings in the region over the specified timeframe was Administrative and Support, and Waste Management and Remediation Services. Sub-industries including Temporary Help Services, Landscaping Services, and Janitorial Services hold the highest number of jobs in the region for this industry. Transportation and Warehousing had the second highest number of total postings, with Heavy Tractor Trailer and Light Truck-Driver occupations in high demand. The Retail Trade industry was close behind, as Retail Salespersons and First-Line Supervisors occupations grew substantially once lockdowns and COVID-19 specific restrictions were lifted. Finally, the Health Care and Social Assistance and Manufacturing industries round out the top five industries with the most job postings.

Nurses/Nursing Assistants, and Stockers and Order Filler occupations are in particularly high demand for these industries. More information on both the Health Care and Social Assistance and Manufacturing industry job posting data can be found in the specific sections for these industries.

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Unique Postings (Jan 2020 - Sep 2021) Admin. & Support & Waste Mgmt./Remediation Services

23,033

Transportation and Warehousing

17,142

Retail Trade

16,991

Health Care and Social Assistance

12,619

Manufacturing

10,663

Accommodation and Food Services

8,227

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

7,041

Construction

5,864

Other Services (except Public Administration)

4,575

Finance and Insurance

3,721

Educational Services

2,959

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

2,366

Wholesale Trade

2,179

Information

2,126

Public Administration

1,788

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

435

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

245

Utilities

136

Management of Companies and Enterprises

121

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

69 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Figure 53: Top Postings by Industry, 2021.4

Top Occupations Posted in Region Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers are by far the most posted occupation in the region from the period of January 2020 to September 2021. With 2,255 monthly postings, truck driver postings are more than double the next highest occupation. That said, the four highest job titles posted all related to truck drivers: CDL-A Truck Drivers, Regional CDL-A Truck Drivers, OTR CDL-A Truck Drivers, and Dedicated CDL-A Truck Drivers. Another finding is the hire/posting ratio for this occupation. With a 1-to-13 hire to posting ratio, there are nearly 13 times as many postings than hires, meaning employers are spending significant effort on job ads but hiring isn’t keeping pace.

Similar in this regard is the Registered Nurses (RN) occupation. With the second highest number of monthly postings (1,065), hiring again falls short, as RNs in the region have a 1-to10 hire to posting ratio. As the median advertised salary/hr. for these positions is $49.11 (roughly $25.00 above median hourly rates for the region), either there is an extreme lack of demand for citizens to move into this occupation in the region or not enough qualified applicants (or a combination of both). Interestingly, Nursing Assistants (CNAs), while having roughly a fourth of the total postings as RNs, have a 1-to-1 hire to posting ratio. This would 80 | P a g e

suggest that there are not enough qualified applicants in the region to supply the demand of RNs as this occupation must complete a higher level of educational requirements compared to CNAs. 52 Other observations that could indicate a skills/education gap is that of First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers and Retail Salespersons. While both have similar average number of monthly postings, they differ dramatically in hire-to-posting ratios. First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers, including job titles like Shift Supervisors/Leaders, Assistant/Store Managers, etc., typically require higher experience than those of the Retail Salesperson occupation. The lack of hiring by employers for this position, but not the lower-tier retail salesperson, is a similar pattern seen with RNs and CNAs. That said, postings for First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers are actually seeing a lower salary than their Retail Salespersons counterpart, potentially lowering demand for these positions with greater responsibility.

Many of the rest of the top posted occupations see normal ratios, as Healthcare, Retail, Accommodation and Food Services, and Manufacturing occupations are present. That said, Speech-Language Pathologists have an outlier hire to posting ratio of 1-to-38. This occupation is in extreme demand, with two healthcare staffing companies in the region accounting for a majority of the total posts for this occupation. Additionally, Fast Food and Counter Workers have an inverse hire to posting relationship of 3-to-1. This would indicate that employers are finding workers successfully without job ads, and that potential marketing of higher salaries and benefits of these positions (through window/physical board signs) is proving effective.

Occupation (SOC) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Registered Nurses First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Retail Salespersons Customer Service Representatives Light Truck Drivers Stockers and Order Fillers First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers Home Health and Personal Care Aides Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Fast Food and Counter Workers Speech-Language Pathologists Nursing Assistants First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Childcare Workers

Avg. Monthly Postings 2,255 1,065 632 621 322 310 307

Avg. Monthly Hires 180 109 93 466 262 160 297

Hire to Posting Ratio 1-to-13 1-to-10 1-to-7 1-to-1 1-to-1 1-to-2 1-to-1

Median Advertised Salary / hr. $33.91 $49.11 $14.22 $14.71 $16.06 $18.03 $14.95

301

138

1-to-2

$14.95

275 254 246 242 236

256 162 753 6 194

1-to-1 1-to-2 3-to-1 1-to-38 1-to-1

$12.49 $20.49 $11.45 $44.92 $14.95

210

135

1-to-2

$20.00

160

66

1-to-2

$13.48

Table 52: Top Occupations Posted, Emsi 2021.4

52

CNA vs. RN, Goodwin University, 2019, https://www.goodwin.edu/enews/rn-vs-cna-infographic/

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Regional Trends With the release of the October 2021 JOLTS data 53, specific Indiana state labor market information can give insights into what future workforce trends may be apparent. Additionally, combining the job posting data from the region with the JOLTS data could give further clues into the current state of the workforce for the region. As seen in Figure 54, Indiana continues to see record high numbers of new job openings. 54 This would coincide with the steady and increasing pace of job postings in the region. As seen, job openings have slightly decreased, and have remained relatively steady. That said, with the 229,000 job openings in September, this represents close to 100,000 more monthly openings than the total 2020 average of 138,000. While openings are continuing pace, job hires are seeing larger declines. 55 From peaking in May 2021 at 218,000, September data shows job hires have continued to decrease and now down to 143,000. While this may seem like a low number compared to the earlier months in 2021, total hires for September are still above historical average numbers. The decrease in hiring could be the result of a number of factors, including employers not finding enough applicants and/or qualified applicants, or previous roles that were vacant have now been filled with more stable workers. The decline in openings would suggest the latter, although hiring has fallen at a much more rapid rate than openings. Interestingly, advertised wages on job postings in the region over the past four months has also declined. While this could be for several factors, it could suggest that employers are starting to see more applicants and therefore lowering starting wages.

Average Annual Hires and Job Openings in Indiana AVERAGE ANNUAL (IN THOUSANDS)

300 241

250 200 150 100 50

157 106 109

129 128

182 142

244

229

218 171

144 96

143

117

0

Avg. Annual Hires

Avg. Annual Openings

Hires 2021

Openings 2021

Figure 54: Avg. Annual Hires and Job Openings in Indiana, JOLTS U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 55 below shows that both Layoffs and Quits have decreased in the past month, including total quits dropping significantly, more than 20,000 less than August 2021 numbers. 56 It is For more information regarding JOLTS data, please use the link provided: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening description: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm 55 Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Hires description: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm 56 Layoff and Quit descriptions can be found from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) here: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm 53 54

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important to note that although quits have decreased in Indiana, the region, and the nation as a whole, the South Bend - Elkhart region is still seeing record high numbers compared to previous years. The decline in the number of quits could indicate that the large movement of the workforce is starting to ease, as employees have found new opportunities they intend to stay at. That said, with job openings continuing to stay at record high numbers, there is no confirmation of this reality. Layoffs declined by approximately 7,000, currently well below prepandemic numbers. Overall Total Separations (which includes Quits, Layoffs, Retirements, and more) also decreased in September 2021.

On a national scale, in September 2021, the number of quits generally fell across industries, falling the most in Finance and Insurance, and Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities. This could suggest that perhaps some of the pressures in these industries are easing. One important aspect of the total quits declining for Transportation and Warehousing, is that employers may be having more success in attracting desperately needed truck drivers, as this issue is at the core of the supply chain problems plaguing the economy. While this may be happening on the national scale, job posting data for the region still indicates that truck drivers are in high demand, with a unique posting intensity of 1-to-13 (average posting intensity for the region is 1-to-4). Additionally, the top qualification all employers posted by a significant margin remains a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL). Another note is that the Healthcare and Social Assistance quit rate fell significantly across the U.S. Again, occupations in this industry are in high demand for the region as well as qualifications that reside with many positions. If quit rates continue to fall for both occupations, it would be expected that future job postings and intensities may decline as well, and employers could start to regain labor shortages.

Average Annual Quits and Layoffs in Indiana 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

142 101

61

123

115

70

Avg. Annual Quits

87

75

Avg. Annual Separations

144

141

105

107

122

118

92

78

2021 Quits

2021 Separations

Figure 55: Avg. Annual Quits and Layoffs in Indiana, JOLTS U.S. Census Bureau

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Total Change in Quits by Industry in U.S. (Sep. - Oct. 2021) Professional and Business Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing State and Local Mining and Logging Information Federal Retail Trade Educational Services Construction Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Other Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Finance and Insurance Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities

21 11 9 6 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -10 -17 -23 -24 -33 -35 -45 -57 -70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Figure 56: Total Change in Quits by Industry, Emsi 2021.4

Top Hard and Soft Skills Listed Merchandising, in 8,199 posts, was the top hard skill posted Top Hard Skills Posted out of all job postings in the Merchandising region over the January 2020 Nursing to September 2021 timeframe. Following as the Restaurant Operation second highest skill posted Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) was Nursing with 7,459 posts, Customer Experience and Restaurant Operation with 6,091. All the top posted 0 5,000 hard skills listed had a Postings Profiles significant difference in the number of postings vs.

Figure 57: Top Hard Skills Posted, Emsi 2021.4 profiles they were found in.

This represents a potential opportunity for employees to better these skills and list them in resumes and online profiles.

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10,000

Communications was most common soft skill listed in job Top Soft Skills Posted postings by a significant Communications margin. Customer Service was Customer Service the second highest skill posted followed by Management Management, Sales, and Sales Operations. Both Customer Operations Service and Sales had more profiles listed with this skill 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 than job postings offered.

Postings Profiles This saturation in skill listing is more common in soft skills, Figure 58: Top Common Skills Posted, Emsi 2021.4 as seen profiles often have several soft skills mentioned with little credibility. That said, Communications has a significant gap, a possible opportunity for employees to build on in the workforce. For all hard and soft skills listed in job postings, please see the Appendix for further information.

Top Qualifications Listed Qualifications listed in postings closely follow top occupations listed, as Commercial Driver’s License (Heavy Tractor-Trailer Truck Driving) and Licensed Practical Nurse (Registered Nurses) are the top two qualifications found in all job postings in the region over the January 2020 to September 2021 timeframe. Several qualifications related to Nursing occupations are listed, as well as many Manufacturing certifications and licenses. While some qualifications listed take more educational attainment, and others are more general, the list below heavily aligns with the overall occupations in need of labor and what employers are posting for in the region. For qualifications listed in job postings, please see the Appendix for further information.

Qualification Commercial Driver's License (CDL) Licensed Practical Nurse Certified Nursing Assistant Bachelor Of Science in Nursing (BSN) Nurse Practitioner Certificate Of Clinical Competence In Speech-Language Pathology (CCC-SLP) Bachelor Of Science in Business Hazmat Endorsement Linux Certified Instructor CDL Class B License Security Clearance Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) Certification Master Of Business Administration (MBA) Licensed Vocational Nurses Tanker Endorsement

Postings with Qualification 15,692 2,684 2,214 1,258 1,065 794 703 632 600 597 577 548 524 517 516

Table 53: Top Qualifications Posted, Emsi 2021.4

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APPENDIX Top 20 Jobs To give a sample of the jobs that were ranked the highest from the calculations, below are the top 20 jobs and scores.

Job Rank

Model B Score

SOC

Description

1

41-3091

Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel

4.5

2

49-9041

Industrial Machinery Mechanics

4.5

3

47-2073

Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators

4.5

4

41-4012

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products

4.25

5

11-9081

Lodging Managers

4.25

6

51-8093

Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers

4.25

7

49-9043

Maintenance Workers, Machinery

4.25

8

33-3051

Police and Sheriffs Patrol Officers

4

9

29-2061

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

4

10

39-9031

Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors

4

11

15-1256

Software Developers and Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers

4

12

43-5011

Cargo and Freight Agents

4

13

53-2012

Commercial Pilots

4

14

29-1126

Respiratory Therapists

4

15

53-3058

Passenger Vehicle Drivers, Except Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity

4

16

29-1292

Dental Hygienists

4

17

51-8091

Chemical Plant and System Operators

4

18

49-3023

Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

4

19

39-3091

Amusement and Recreation Attendants

4

20

49-9051

Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers

4

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Additional Manufacturing Industry Information Top Manufacturing Occupation Openings from 2015 – 2020 Occupation (SOC)

2015

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

492

510

433

381

355

325

490

470

413

364

357

351

180

176

155

128

82

82

72

60

52

67

68

45

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

431

527

524

406

405

384

Helpers--Production Workers

332

400

309

292

270

235

Stockers and Order Fillers

624

706

625

686

683

608

177

230

178

163

158

151

47

57

41

38

27

23

1,163

1,306

1,334

1,219

993

918

Industrial Engineers Production Workers, All Other

Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Top Manufacturing Occupation Hires from 2015 – 2020 Occupation (SOC) First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1,772

1,819

2,263

1,612

1,191

1,624

2,101

2,120

2,058

2,089

1,902

1,940

Industrial Engineers

746

639

697

708

442

409

Production Workers, All Other

636

730

694

726

1,545

516

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

2,113

2,182

2,408

2,211

2,021

2,161

Helpers--Production Workers

2,598

2,789

2,995

2,424

1,612

1,417

Stockers and Order Fillers

3,099

3,359

3,153

3,779

3,471

3,577

1,206

1,407

1,444

1,283

865

989

156

212

162

205

79

83

7,520

8,948

10,282

10,988

7,776

8,209

Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

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Top Manufacturing Occupation Separations from 2015 – 2020 Occupation (SOC) First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1,514

1,839

2,083

2,039

1,585

1,658

1,820

2,090

2,328

2,238

1,801

1,988

Industrial Engineers

260

404

419

420

465

404

Production Workers, All Other

792

1,367

1,181

750

853

425

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

2,082

1,986

2,176

2,166

1,930

2,145

Helpers--Production Workers

3,951

2,417

4,692

3,780

3,340

1,582

Stockers and Order Fillers

3,244

3,207

3,429

3,150

2,624

3,441

1,335

1,422

1,772

1,339

1,449

1,067

218

244

435

359

343

66

5,405

5,751

6,487

6,273

6,135

7,990

Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Additional Healthcare Industry Information Top Healthcare Occupation Openings from 2015 – 2020 Occupation (SOC)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Registered Nurses

432

338

346

267

513

328

Home Health and Personal Care Aides

581

561

729

602

532

575

Nursing Assistants

378

407

424

319

446

359

Speech-Language Pathologists

15

21

18

18

18

17

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

99

97

98

91

87

85

100

101

107

208

90

96

Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists

17

12

11

24

13

11

Medical and Health Services Managers

42

34

64

85

67

61

154

191

201

207

162

172

84

110

116

122

122

97

Social and Human Service Assistants

Medical Assistants Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

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Top Healthcare Occupation Hires from 2015 – 2020 Occupation (SOC)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Registered Nurses

1,109

1,333

1,358

942

1,926

1,305

Home Health and Personal Care Aides

2,652

2,582

3,266

3,049

2,683

3,064

Nursing Assistants

1,874

2,073

2,024

1,681

2,602

2,314

84

93

58

94

99

76

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

530

616

561

467

428

519

Social and Human Service Assistants

354

409

350

632

411

454

60

52

45

68

47

43

Medical and Health Services Managers

148

130

207

219

264

250

Medical Assistants

512

548

616

582

477

656

Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

278

336

348

295

401

369

Speech-Language Pathologists

Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists

Top Healthcare Occupation Separations 2015 – 2020 Occupation (SOC) Registered Nurses

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

878

1,133

1,093

1,927

1,017

1,326

Home Health and Personal Care Aides

2,901

2,896

2,424

2,956

2,313

2,860

Nursing Assistants

1,404

1,514

1,697

2,191

1,430

2,288

60

47

100

48

79

62

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

526

584

609

916

926

489

Social and Human Service Assistants

281

290

383

299

406

455

64

59

44

39

87

52

Medical and Health Services Managers

141

164

153

127

144

199

Medical Assistants

512

433

519

499

553

648

Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

242

238

249

232

230

372

Speech-Language Pathologists

Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists

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Additional Wage Rate Information Wage Earnings for Top Manufacturing Occupations Median Hourly Earnings

10 th Pct.

75 th Pct

90 th Pct.

$14.37

$25.10

$35.16

$16.96

$21.75

$35.74

$41.12

$18.77

$13.25

$15.40

$23.23

$27.93

Cutting, Punching, & Press Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Metal & Plastic

$17.14

$12.57

$14.40

$20.02

$23.58

53-7062

Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers, Hand

$15.16

$10.89

$12.76

$18.41

$22.30

51-7011

Cabinetmakers & Bench Carpenters

$16.91

$12.75

$14.20

$21.04

$25.05

51-9124

Coating, Painting, & Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders

$18.64

$12.87

$15.47

$23.11

$27.79

51-9061

Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, & Weighers

$18.71

$13.33

$15.68

$23.28

$28.62

51-4072

Molding, Coremaking, & Casting Machine Setters, Operators, & Tenders, Metal & Plastic

$16.97

$11.51

$13.71

$19.52

$23.81

51-4041

Machinists

$20.85

$13.81

$16.94

$25.37

$29.74

75th Pct.

90th Pct.

SOC

Occupations (5-Digit)

51-2098

Miscellaneous Assemblers & Fabricators

$17.61

$12.65

51-1011

First-Line Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers

$28.44

51-4121

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers

51-4031

25 th Pct.

Table 54: Wage Rates, Manufacturing Occupations (5-Digit), Emsi 2021.4

Wage Earnings for Top Healthcare Occupations SOC

Occupations (5-Digit)

29-1141 31-1128 31-1131

Registered Nurses Home Health and Personal Care Aides Nursing Assistants

31-9092

Medical Assistants

43-4171

Median Hourly Earnings $31.10 $11.48 $14.00

10th Pct.

25th Pct.

$23.43 $9.79 $11.17

$27.07 $10.44 $12.52

$36.79 $12.65 $15.47

$40.91 $14.74 $18.04

$16.35

$12.77

$14.10

$18.55

$20.40

Receptionists and Information Clerks

$14.61

$10.69

$12.54

$17.15

$19.08

29-2061

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

$23.33

$19.38

$20.99

$26.38

$29.84

43-9061

Office Clerks, General

$16.33

$10.49

$13.14

$19.16

$24.67

43-6013

Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

$17.37

$12.72

$14.49

$21.05

$24.83

29-2018

Clinical Laboratory Technologists and Technicians

$19.64

$13.47

$15.90

$25.39

$30.15

21-1093

Social and Human Service Assistants

$15.97

$11.62

$13.39

$18.05

$19.38

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Additional Job Posting Information Total List of Top Hard/Soft Skills in the Region Hard Skills

Postings

Soft Skills

Postings

Merchandising Nursing Restaurant Operation Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) Auditing Selling Techniques Accounting Warehousing Flatbed Truck Operation Basic Life Support Customer Experience Cash Register Personal Protective Equipment

8,199 7,459 6,091 5,340 5,006 4,918 4,680 4,406 4,380 4,080 3,892 3,409 3,340

Communications Customer Service Management Sales Operations Leadership Valid Driver's License Detail Oriented Problem Solving Lifting Ability Basic Math Computer Literacy Innovation

34,233 26,870 21,053 20,035 14,558 14,305 12,314 11,906 9,437 9,411 8,187 7,567 6,976

Sanitation

3,273

Interpersonal Communications

6,844

Forklift Truck Customer Satisfaction Cash Handling Loans Inventory Management Caregiving Data Entry Food Services Packaging And Labeling Finance Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS)

2,975 2,895 2,875 2,860 2,823 2,760 2,707 2,651 2,651 2,635 2,629

Organizational Skills Planning Written Communication Verbal Communication Skills Self-Motivation Scheduling Multitasking Professionalism Time Management Teamwork Presentations

6,775 6,716 6,034 5,993 5,928 5,845 5,756 5,734 5,559 5,547 5,220

Total List of Top Posted Qualifications for Manufacturing in the Region Manufacturing Qualification

Postings with Qualification

Linux Certified Instructor

553

Commercial Driver's License (CDL)

413

Security Clearance

248

Bachelor Of Science in Business

197

Certified Forklift Operator

178

Master Of Business Administration (MBA)

146

CDL Class B License

61

Six Sigma Green Belt Certification

52

Licensed Practical Nurse

45

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Qualification Professional in Human Resources

Postings with Qualification 39

Certified Public Accountant

37

(American Society For Quality) ASQ Certified

34

Certified Welder

32

Six Sigma Black Belt Certification

28

Certified Quality Engineer

27

Project Management Professional Certification

26

Bachelor Of Science in Business Administration

23

American Welding Society Certification

22

Certified In Production And Inventory Management

22

Cisco Certified Network Associate

21

Senior Professional In Human Resources

21

Tanker Endorsement

21

Hazmat Endorsement

18

Advanced Emergency Medical Technician (AEMT)

12

Certified Nursing Assistant

12

Doctor Of Pharmacy (PharmD)

12

Lean Six Sigma Certification

12

Professional Engineer

12

SHRM-CP (Society for Human Resource Management Certified Professional)

11

Certified Quality Auditor

10

Certified Safety Professional

10

Bachelor Of Science in Nursing (BSN)

9

Certified Industrial Hygienist (CIH)

9

Certified Quality Technician

9

Certified Welding Inspector

9

Cisco Certified Network Professional

9

Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer

9

APICS Certified Supply Chain Professional

8

CompTIA Security+

8

National Registry Emergency Medical Technician

8

Security Identification Display Area (SIDA) Badge

8

Certified Information Systems Security Professional

7

CompTIA Certification

7

Microsoft Certified Systems Administrator (MCSA)

7

NICET Certification (National Institute For Certification In Engineering Technologies)

7

Patient Care Technician

7

Certified Employee Benefit Specialist

6

CompTIA Network+

6

Salesforce Certification

6

Secret Clearance

6

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Total List of Top Posted Qualifications for Healthcare in the Region Healthcare Qualification Certified Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Certificate Of Clinical Competence In Speech-Language Pathology (CCC-SLP) Bachelor Of Science in Nursing (BSN) Nurse Practitioner Licensed Vocational Nurses Commercial Driver's License (CDL) Licensed Clinical Social Worker (LCSW) Licensed Marriage And Family Therapist (LMFT) Patient Care Technician Associate Degree In Nursing Certified Medical Assistant Licensed Professional Counselor (LPC) American Medical Technologists Security Clearance Certified Occupational Therapy Assistant Registered Dietitian (RD/RDN) Food Handler's Card Licensed Social Worker Medical License Radiology Certification ServSafe Certification Doctor Of Dental Surgery (DDS) Licensed Master Social Worker Certified Nephrology Nurse Doctor Of Dental Medicine (DMD) Expanded Functions Dental Assistant American Registry Of Radiologic Technologists (ARRT) Certified Bachelor Of Science in Business Certified Home Health Aide Certified Hemodialysis Technician Registered Health Information Technician Registered Health Information Administrator Certified Dialysis Nurse Certified Pharmacy Technician Master Of Science in Nursing (MSN) Certified Dietary Manager (CDM) Certified Public Accountant Tanker Endorsement ANCC Certified American Association Of Nurse Practitioners (AANP) Certified Certified Coding Specialist

Postings with Qualification 1,054 977 274 250 191 189 179 164 137 133 109 107 94 86 80 74 61 57 55 50 47 46 45 44 41 41 39 34 34 32 31 28 26 25 22 21 20 20 20 19 18 17

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Qualification CNOR Certification Critical Care Registered Nurse (CCRN) Doctor Of Medicine (MD) Board Certified In Internal Medicine Certified Case Manager Certified Surgical Technologist Family Nurse Practitioner NHA Certified

Postings with Qualification 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14

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