Emobility+ December Issue 2018

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Volume 01. l Issue 03

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December 2018

Cover Story

Key Trends For 2019:

The Future Of Indian EV Industry

Industry Insights

Electric Vehicle Taxi Fleets & Ride Sharing: Poised for Huge Growth Industry Insights

Cost Estimates & Revenue Model For A Public Charging Station

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Cover Story

Table Of Content

Key Trends For 2019: The Future Of Indian EV Industry .......8-9

Learning From The China Story 6

Modeling the Charging Infrastructure Needed to Support EV Growth 11 Mr. Akula Venkata Ramana, Founder & CEO, AVERA

Cost Estimates and Revenue Model for a Public Charging Station

Mr. Anant Nahata, Managing Director, Exicom

12

Mr. Sunil Bhatnagar, Country Head- Energy Div. Micromax Energy Ltd.

Electric Vehicle (EV) Taxi Fleets & Ride Sharing: Poised for Huge Growth 14

Mr. Akarsh Gupta, Director, Snel Charge India Pvt. Ltd (A Chemi Tech Group Company)

Mr. Amalraj, CEO, Tirame Technology Pvt ltd.

Future Of Electric Vehicles Adoption In India 24

Mr. Rahul Gonsalves, CEO, DARWYN

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India News

I

ndia Drafts Policy For Compulsory EV Charging Stations

on the amount of subsidy has been fixed at 20 percent of the cost of the vehicle. This

In order to cement manifestation of Indian government’s mission to go fully electric on

would allow buyers to get the subsidy as high as Rs 4 lakh for certain high-end electric

roads by 2030, Town and Country Planning organisation under the Ministry of Housing

cars, including such models which are not yet introduced to Indian roads, reported the

and Urban Affairs has prepared a draft which proposes to amend building by-laws and

publication quoting its sources familiar with the matter. The high-powered committee has

make it compulsory for residential and commercial buildings and even parking lots, to have

approved allocation of Rs 4,500 crore for providing subsidies and Rs 1,000 crore for setting

electric vehicle charging station. Based on this draft proposal, governments shall amend

up charging infrastructure, taking the total allocation to Rs 5,500 crore.

their building by-laws and master plan regulations, which will be applicable to residential, institutional buildings, multi-level parking complexes, bus terminals and service stations.

And, if the proposal make it to live implementation then there will be an extra load of electricity consumption by these buildings and premises thus the proposal also includes increasing electricity load for all buildings.

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ST To Reduce On Batteries Of Electric Vehicles In India ― To Boost Ev Manufacturing In The Country

GST rates for electric car batteries are set to reduce. This move will directly cause a drop in prices for electric vehicles in India. According to the latest proposal by the Indian

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yderabad Metro Rail To Be First Metro In Country To Provide EV Charging Stations

government, GST rates for the batteries are set to reduce from the current 28 percent down to 12 percent. Batteries are among one of the most expensive parts of an electric car.

In a first-of-its-kind initiative to promote electric vehicles, L&T Metro Rail Limited has

With more car manufacturers around the world slowly moving towards EVs, the Indian

teamed up with the Power Grid Corporation of India Limited to facilitate the provision of

government has also started taking actions towards this change. Currently, Mahindra

electric vehicle charging stations at Metro stations.

Miyapur and Balanagar Metro Stations will be charging stations at the beginning and subsequently, the Power Grid will provide similar electric vehicle charging stations across the entire Metro corridors. The initiative has been taken to promote these electric vehicle charging stations for first and last mile connectivity at Metro stations. In a statement, LTMRHL Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer KVB Reddy said, “We are committed

and Tata Motors are making electric cars in India. The drop in GST rates will help bring down the manufacturing costs of EVs in India. This will also help boost manufacturing and assembly process of electric cars in India. Apart from this, the concept of swappable battery packs could also see a major boost. Batteries for electric cars are still imported from countries like China and United States. However, the prices of imported electric cars

to providing best-in-class eco-friendly green Metro services to citizens of Hyderabad and

into India will remain unaffected. Electric car batteries are calculated in ‘$ per kWh’. In

this is a step in that direction.”

2010, the cost of batteries per kWh was priced at $1000 (Rs 67,392*) but since then has

EVs can also assist in stabilization of grid further with Vehicle to Grid concept, improving

reduced considerably. Currently, the cost per kWh for electric car batteries is priced at $225

the per capita electricity consumption substantially. Also, the running cost is considerably

to $250 (Rs 15,163 to 16,848*). According to a study done by Bloomberg, this is said to

low compared to the vehicles run on fossil fuels.

further reduce to $100 (Rs 6,739*) by 2026. *all prices converted according to 12th May 2018 conversion rate.

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inistry of Power Launches National E-Mobility Programme in India

Minister of Power, New and Renewable Energy, R K Singh today launched the National E-Mobility Programme in India. In line with the Government of India’s vision of 100% e-mobility by 2030, Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL) will issue a fresh tender for additional 10,000 e-vehicles, the Minister announced, according to a media statement.

EESL concluded the first tender for procuring 10,000 e-vehicles last year. Following the

I

ndian EV Charging Standards May Favour European Standards

European, Chinese and Japanese companies are battling to establish the standards for EV charging in India. The Indian government released a draft report in March singling out Combo, the EV fast charging method favored by European manufacturers, as a proposed

successful completion of the first tender, EESL envisions a growing demand from various

national standard for direct-current chargers with a voltage of 100 or more.As India plans to

government departments.

make 30% of the cars on its roads EVs by 2030. The development is a setback for Japanese

The new tender for 10,000 e-vehicles will cater to this growing demand. With these 20,000

and Chinese makers, which use CHAdeMO and GB/T systems, respectively. The report

electric cars, India is expected to save over 5 crore litres of fuel every year leading to a

does not entail a formal adoption of the Combo standard. It will be possible, for example,

reduction of over 5.6 lakh tonnes of annual CO2 emission.

for private sector operators to install CHAdeMO fast chargers of their own accord. But it

R K Singh, Minister of State for Power, New and Renewable Energy, said, “India has embarked

has put companies that use the system at a disadvantage. Japanese automaker Suzuki

on an ambitious e-mobility plan and the government has taken the leadership in enabling

Motor’s Indian subsidiary Maruti Suzuki India holds a roughly 50% share of the passenger

e-mobility in India. The National E-Mobility Programme is a step towards ushering in an

car market in the world’s second-most populous country. The company is set to launch an

era of clean, green and future-oriented technologies in the country.”

EV in the Indian market in partnership with Toyota Motor around 2020 and the two also plan to cooperate on the development of charging stations.

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ndustry, Experts Hail Delhi’s Draft Electric Vehicle Policy Several industry leaders and experts in electric mobility on Tuesday welcomed the Delhi

government’s draft “Electric Vehicle Policy 2018”, which aims to ensure adoption of 25 per cent e-vehicles among new registrations by 2023. “The draft policy is the finest ever policy for electric vehicles I have seen. I would like to congratulate the Delhi government that they are thinking in such a direction,” Professor at IIT Madras Ashok Jhunjhunwala said at the day-long series of stakeholder consultations on the draft policy. A former advisor to the government of India on electric vehicle policy, Jhunjhunwala also emphasized the need for innovation and better research so as to bring price parity between conventional and electric vehicles. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was the chief guest of the consultation

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ndia and France to Work Together for Expansion of Electric Vehicles

India and France have announced quite a few collaborations together lately to battle climate change affecting the world. The latest Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed between India’s Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited (SECI), Commissariat a l energieatomique et aux energies alternatives (CEA), a French state-owned research entity,

organised by the Dialogue and Development Commission (DDC) in partnership with the

and BlueStorage SAS, a French Company. The MoU will help in strengthening bilateral

Rocky Mountain Institute. “The Delhi government is fully committed to taking bold steps

cooperation between India and France for the expansion of e-mobility.

to fight air pollution and just like the odd-even scheme, we are ready to make all necessary

The objective of the MoU is to define the modalities of discussions concerning the

efforts to transition the transport sector in Delhi to electric vehicles,” Kejriwal said as he inaugurated the consultation

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future collaboration in a pilot project to provide SECI an e-vehicle charging station with embedded batteries, powered by solar panels and optimized connection to the grid. The collaboration aims to extend France’s support to the Indian government’s ambitious plan

oost for electric vehicles: Government plans to offer Rs 1.4 lakh subsidy

for the deployment of electrical vehicles by maximizing solar mobility and minimizing its

In a major step to boost sales of electric vehicles, the government has decided to offer

to each other in taking climate action. Recently, India’s Union Cabinet approved an MoU

a direct subsidy of around Rs 1.4 lakh for each electric car. The decision was taken in the

between India and France in the field of energy efficiency. This MoU is a science and

August 30 meeting, followed by the decision of the Ministry of Finance to raise allocation

technology agreement, which involves knowledge exchange and cooperation in the form

of subsidy on e-vehicles to Rs 4,500 crore under the second phase of Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric vehicles scheme. As per the report, all buyers of existing electric car model from Tata and Mahindra can receive subsidy of around Rs 1.4 lakh. The ceiling

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grid impact. This cooperation is another example of India’s and France’s growing closeness

of technical assistance. The MoU is expected to take forward information exchange on policies, programs, and technologies relating to enhanced energy efficiency and demand side management.

E-Mobility+• December 2018 2018 4 E-Mobility+ • December

Global News

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hinese Electric Vehicle Company Wins Ebus Order From Jerusalem

billion euros, the company said in a statement. It also plans restructuring measures that will generate 1 billion in earnings uplift already in 2018.

BYD has confirmed an order for the first pure electric buses for Jerusalem, Israel. The order,

“This planning round bears a clear signature: We are taking a very systematic approach to

for seven 12m BYD ebuses, came as the result of a tender won by BYD in 2016. Under

electric mobility and will be much more focused in future,” said Audi’s interim management

that contract, 17 buses were supplied to Haifa, in the north of Israel, and have been in

board chairman Bram Schot. “We are consistently prioritizing our resources for future-

operation with public transport operator Egged since mid-2017.

oriented products and services that are highly attractive and relevant to the market.”

Due to the excellent performance of those 17 vehicles, especially on hilly terrain, Egged decided to place this additional order for ebuses in Jerusalem, a city in a mountainous area 800m above sea level.

The order is part of a larger project, fully supported by the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Environment in Israel, and serves as a spearhead for experimenting and

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hina Drives Global Electric Vehicle Market Automobile manufacturers across the world are bracing for a sweeping change. With

stringent emission norms expected to take effect globally, the internal combustion engine

introducing technology for alternative transportation in the public transport market in

is expected to gradually make way for electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles

Israel. It is the basis for a green revolution in the field of electric public transportation in

(HEVs). According to recent JP Morgan research, the growth in EVs and HEVs is increasing

metropolitan centers.

rapidly, and by the year 2025, they will account for about 30 percent of all vehicle sales

The buses are expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2019. Isbrand Ho, Managing

globally.

Director at BYD Europe, said: “We are on a winning streak. In the past weeks we [have]

To place things in perspective, there were less than one million plug-in electric vehicle

confirmed orders for Italy and Norway, and we are now pleased to announce our second

sales (PEVs) in 2016—accounting for 1 percent of global automobile sales. However, by

order for Israel. And there is more to come. The 17 buses that have been running in Haifa for almost a year are performing very well in the hilly and hot area, and we are sure that these seven buses will live up to that.”.

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anada Invests In Solar-Powered Charging Stations Across Ontario

Member of Parliament for Northumberland–Peterborough South, Kim Rudd, on behalf of Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources, the Honourable Amarjeet Sohi, today announced a $2-million investment in Sky Solar Canada Ltd. for a total of 12 solar-powered electric vehicle charging stations at five sites across Ontario. Three of the sites are located in Cobourg, one in Markham and one in Oxford Station. Many of the charging stations are bi-directional, which means they will also be able to deliver energy from the battery to the electricity grid. The demonstration project will help identify economic benefits of bidirectional charging. This funding is part of our government’s $182.5-million investment to grow Canada’s electric vehicle infrastructure to make using electric and other alternative fuel vehicles easier and more convenient for Canadians. Through Canada’s national energy dialogue, Generation Energy, Canadians made it clear that the transition to electric vehicles and lower-carbon fuel alternatives is not a luxury but a necessity for Canada’s low-carbon future. Our government continues to support green infrastructure projects that will create jobs, advance Canada’s clean future and help us realize our domestic and international climate change goals.

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lectric VehicleTrend Gaining Steam In Latin America Despite the initial cost of electric vehicles (EV) still being quite expensive for some

countries, some of the factors increasing the global EV fleet are falling battery costs, increasing vehicle ranges, and other issues such as tax incentives, tighter fuel-economy standards, and new initiatives in electric mobility.

While China, Western Europe, and California are among the places leading the world’s transformation to EVs, cities in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico are among those leading the way in Latin America.

With the vast majority of Latin America’s citizens residing in urban areas and private

2025, the report estimates this number will near 8.4 million vehicles, translating into a 7.7 percent market share..

The EV market is poised to witness a significant surge, although HEVs are likely to be the market leader. HEVs combine an internal combustion engine with an electric motor.

Growth in this segment by 2025 will be unprecedented—from a meager 3 percent of global market share to over 25 million vehicles or 23 percent of global sales over the same period. Therefore, by 2025, it is forecast that fossil fuel-burning vehicles will account for about 70 percent of the market share. By 2030, the figure is expected to decline to 40 percent, with a large chunk of HEV sales coming from emerging economies.

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audi Energy Minister Throws Shade At Electric Vehicles Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih publicly downplayed, “what he described as the

‘hype’ of the electric vehicle market.” And he emphasized that “miscalculations around the pace of [vehicle] electrification could create ‘serious’ risks around global energy security.”

At CERAWeek’s energy gathering in New Delhi, Al-Falih said, “Conventional vehicles today, despite all the hype, represent 99.8 percent of the global vehicle fleet. That means electric vehicles with 0.2 percent of the fleet, only substitute about 30,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of a total global oil demand of about 100 million barrels. Even if those numbers increase by a factor of 100 over the next couple of decades, they would still remain negligible in the global energy mix.”

Taking another swipe at electric vehicles, the Saudi Energy Minister employs a well-worn soundbite from Big Oil’s misleading (and thoroughly debunked) FUD rhetoric. Instead of acknowledging a grid that gets increasingly cleaner every year, he deflects — pointing his finger at coal.

Taking another swipe at electric vehicles, the Saudi Energy Minister employs a well-worn soundbite from Big Oil’s misleading (and thoroughly debunked) FUD rhetoric. Instead of acknowledging a grid that gets increasingly cleaner every year, he deflects — pointing his finger at coal.

air pollution does not seem like it will go away soon. As such, Latin America has a strong

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incentive to promote electric mobility.

In November, 100 brand-new electric buses rolled off a cargo ship from China at the

Several factors, however, are still hindering the progress of these vehicles in the region and

port of San Antonio on the Chilean coast. Their impressive convoy from the coast to the

among them are the cost of cars, subsidized fossil fuels, the presence of ethanol (primarily

capital, Santiago, where they will be incorporated into the city’s public fleet, was shared

Brazil), a lack of vehicle fuel efficiency standards, and insufficient charging infrastructure.

widely on Twitter as evidence of where public transportation is headed in Chile — toward

In Brazil for example where the average annual salary is approximately $35,000 reais

100 percent electrification by 2050, according to the government’s plans. The new fleet

(US$9,400), the price of the Nissan Leaf is R$179,000.

followed a 2016 deal between Italian energy company Enel and Chinese manufacturer BYD

vehicle ownership growing at the fastest pace in the world (estimated to triple by 2050),

hy Electric Vehicles Are Gathering Speed in Latin America

to test two pilot buses which proved to considerably cut costs in comparison with diesel

Audi to invest 14 billion euros in e-mobility, self-driving cars

vehicles. They have also been a hit with passengers, with low noise levels and cleaner air

Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE) premium auto brand Audi said on Tuesday it would invest

inside the vehicles. Santiago’s story is emblematic of a global evolution in the transport

14 billion euros ($15.9 billion) through 2023 in electric mobility, digitalization and

sector. In 2017 the global stock of electric vehicles, or E.V.s, surpassed three million, up

autonomous driving.

from one million in 2015, according to the International Energy Agency.

Overall, the company’s total projected expenditure for the next five years amounts to 40

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Industry Insights

Learning From The China Story

In the last few years, China has established its dominance in EV car stock, with its share being onethird of the global stock in 2016. A plethora of research and new investments are making their way to the Chinese market. These include Daimler’s JV with BYD and investments by SAIC, Honda, Toyota, Ford with Anhui Zotye, etc. China has been clear in its intention to lead the EV market. As per the industrial policy, Made in China 2025, it wants to either globally dominate or be a major competitor in 10 high-tech industries. New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and cars that are either partially or fully electric, are a part of that goal. To this end, China has been providing significant support to the industry through subsidies and policy decisions.

3 kilometers in inner suburbs, and 1 kilometer in urban areas. To this end, China needs to invest approximately USD 19 billion.

Another development to observe are the forthcoming changes in China’s policy around subsidies. While the subsidies facilitated exponential growth in EVs, they also had unintended consequences of distorting the market and prompting carmakers to falsify sales numbers to obtain subsidies. China has begun phasing out direct subsidies and intends to remove them completely by 2021. As per a government announcement, the drop in direct subsidies will be replaced by a dual-credit scheme to be launched in

Some of the significant ones among them are:

2019. The new scheme will require individual carmakers to produce a minimum number of EVs. Those failing to meet the minimum production targets will have to buy credits

 Reduced taxes: NEVs were exempted from the standard consumption tax that consumers pay on new automobiles, in as early as 2008.

from competitors with surplus credits. Vehicles that meet their range targets will also earn credits. China is also planning to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars, in line with some of the European nations like UK and France. However, it has not yet decided on a schedule.

The China story serves as a good learning to countries like India which have been slow on

 Manufacturing subsidies: Billions of dollars have been given in direct subsidies to NEV

the road to EVs so far.

manufacturers. The quantum of subsidy was such that it contributed to sales quadrupling in 2015. For example, Shenzhen-based manufacturer BYD received USD 435 million in subsidies between 2010 and 2015, making it the state-sponsored champion of electric and

Key EV Initiatives by China: 

Exemption of NEVs from standard consumption tax

the development of energy-efficient vehicles and electric vehicle infrastructure. The



Manufacturing subsidies

generous subsidies and buoyant sales led to 200 companies announcing their intention to



Customer subsidies accounting for 20-40% of EV price (to be phased out by 2021)

make and sell NEVs in China.



50% of government vehicle procurement to be EVs

hybrid vehicles in China. The central government allocated over USD 15 billion to support

 Customer subsidies: The Chinese government began a consumer subsidy program in 2010 providing approximately USD 8,700 per car. Local governments also created their own subsidy programs that provided additional discounts for NEV purchases through cash subsidies, free parking, or free license plates. Both local and central subsidies together accounted for about 20 to 40 percent of the cost of the vehicle.

 Government procurement contracts: In 2014, government mandated that NEVs should constitute 30 percent of all government procurement contracts. In 2016, the figure was revised to 50 percent.

One significant area that will require a ramp-up to meet China’s goal of being a world leader in EVs, is charging station infrastructure.

Charging station ownership in China increased from 76 in 2010 to 5,600 in 2016 at a CAGR of 104 percent. The number of public charging piles grew from 1,122 to 150,000 at a CAGR of 126 percent during the same period. In addition to public charging piles, private charging pile ownership reached about 170,000 units in 2016, thus bringing the country’s total number of charging piles to nearly 310,000 (the largest of any country in the world).

However, given China’s aggressive goals on charging station infrastructure, there is still a wide gap to be bridged. China aims to build 12,000 centralized charging or battery swap stations and 4.8 million scattered charging piles across the country by 2020 to meet a

Credits: Innovation Norway; India EV Story: Emerging Opportunities

charging demand of 5 million EVs, with the goal of achieving a ratio of one vehicle to one charging pile. As per the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), the aim is to reduce the maximum distance between charging stations to less than 5 kilometers in suburban areas,

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Cover Story

Key

Trends For 2019

The Future of Indian EV Industry

Mr. Akula Venkata Ramana, Founder & CEO, AVERA Four technology-driven trends—Electrification, Shared Mobility,

key, EV-related initiatives and policies the EV market in India are expanding rapidly. As

Connectivity, and Autonomous driving—are leading Automotive

EVs offer lowest operating and running cost more passengers will move towards electric

Industry to this disruption.These trends will shift markets and

mobility.

revenue pools, change mobility behavior and build new avenues for competition and cooperation. Worldwide, the automotive industry is going through significant changes with four key trends dominating the landscape. These are autonomous

The electric vehicle market in India is expanding rapidly. The government of India has made a number of electric vehicle-related policies announcements for the deployment

driving, connected vehicles, local business model (including on-demand mobility) and

of electric vehicles in the country. As EESL will aggregate demand by procuring electric

hybrid/electric vehicles.

vehicles in bulk to get economies of scale. India is one of the largest users of 2-wheeler

Electric Vehicles are Trend in E-Mobility Sector resulting towards pollution-free

is going to witness a fast shift to EVs as it the inherent advantage of easy charging. By

transportation for better adoption of electric mobility nation has to focus on technology

establishing more battery manufacturing companies EV’s costs will become more and

development, demand creation, pilot projects and charging infrastructure. These electric

more affordable with the reduction of battery cost and battery swapping technology need

vehicles will replace the existing fleet of petrol and diesel vehicles with the government’s

to be adopted more for a quick charge filling.

Mr. Anant Nahata, Managing Director Exicom EV segment in India has evolved significantly over the last year

Launch of 2nd generation vehicles by OEMs

which was driven by Govt. tenders (EESL, NTPC), release of EV

Year 2018 has seen EVs being increasingly used in fleet operations, govt. fleet, airports,

Charging standards for < 100 V vehicles, issuance of clarification

corporate cabs which has given OEMs a view of the consumer preferences and challenges

on sale of electricity for EV charging and OEM announcements

they can expect to face in Indian market. With this wealth of data, we expect to see

for EV launches in 2019/2020. This has laid a foundation for new business models and

upgraded versions of existing EVs in 2019. OEMs like Nissan-Renault, Hyundai and KIA

launches to be witnessed in 2019. We will also release of EV Charging standards for more

are expected to launch their global models on Indian roads. These models will have range

than 100 V vehicles. The emobility sector will further evolve in the context of several larger

upwards of 200 kms and faster battery charging times enabling better utilization on fleet.

trends, some specific to India, and some relevant globally.

Range Anxiety to decrease as EV Chargers will be in more common place

Infrastructure development

We see the availability of public chargers to increase which will enable companies to do

The growth in the EV segment is contingent upon the infrastructure development. The

more runs and reduce anxiety. With the release of high voltage charging standards, we

government has re-categorized public EV charging from licensed activity to service delivery

expect more cars with battery size > 30 kWh and faster charging times. This will lower the

in order to attract more players to set up charging stations.[1] Emergence of several players

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for the fleet owners. With high voltage chargers, the speed

to build charging network stations, and collaboration of charging service providers with

of charging will also increase significantly.

utilities and energy companies will drive rapid expansion of charging network.

Battery Swapping as an alternate charging solution

Demand-side growth

Battery swapping as a solution is likely to be experimented by fleet operators/aggregators

Ride-sharing companies have announced ambitious plans to invest in electric mobility. Ola

in order to reduce charging down time and enable more daily runs increasing revenue

aims to have 10,000 EVs in 2019 as part of its Mission Electric. Lithium cabs, Bhagirathi are some successful examples and have developed an EV fleet of about 500 vehicles already

earning opportunities for the stakeholders. Considering issues of size standardization, we expect the use to be captive initially and later extend on to a bigger scale.

and are active in enterprise transportation segment. In addition, EVs will play a key role in the last-mile delivery in congested urban areas, providing a fillip to the EV industry from logistics and booming e-commerce companies in India.

Mr. Sunil Bhatnagar, Country Head- Energy Div. Micromax Energy Ltd. E Mobility, a hot topic of discussions is ultimately taking shape

on retrofit which in itself is a big market, some are working on E Trucks with a range of

now. Major share is captured by 2 & 3 wheelers as E cars were

400Kms. E Bus is already a reality in India and phenomenal growth is expected in coming

not able to make a dent except for hybrid cars. The main reason

years in this particular segment. Micromax is already a leading player in EV Lithium battery

of slow sales of e car is mileage anxiety, high cost and weak

packs with its battery assembly plant located at Bhiwadi. Now we have plans to put cell

charging infrastructure. Three wheelers comprising of E Rickshaw,

manufacturing plant in year 2019. The company has timed its cell plant project linked to

E Auto and E Loader have done very well. The market of 2&3 wheelers would grow at

expected high EV sales in year 2019 & 2020 and our infrastructure part for 2 GWhr Cell

exceedingly good speed in 2019. More than 100 serious manufacturers and assemblers

manufacturing plant is almost over in 25 acres at Bhiwadi. The future definitely belongs to

are already working hard and we would see year 2019 as a good beginning in whole EV

EV which may run on Lithium, Carbon, Graphene, Hydrogen and other new and renewable

segment. As has been envisaged year 2020 is the year when the fuel driven vehicles would

energy technologies.

feel the pinch of electric revolution in India. Apart from this many companies are working

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Cover Story

Mr. Rahul Gonsalves, CEO, DARWYN The electric vehicle industry is heating up new entrants flooding

If we try to compare the cost of manufacturing the packs in India vs Importing them there

the market and major brands dabbling with the idea of launching

entrepreneur is looking for tighter vertical integration, Battery management system design

electric vehicles. With 6 years in the electric vehicle industry, here

and IP held in house and a battery casing that is a structural or cosmetic part of the vehicle,

are the 3 predictions for 2019!

would get a 20% cheaper cost if done in India, not factoring in any make in India subsidies.

The only vehicles in the electric vehicle space that made sense until very recently were either

30-35% reduction in cost over china could be achieved if these are factored in.

slow boring scooters, or super sport vehicles be it race cars or premium electric sedans

Prediction: Major OEMs are going to move their battery assembly in India, leading to

and SUVs. There is surely going to be a new winner in the electric vehicle space. With the prices of Lithium ion batteries nears 250 USD per KWh thus scooters that could manage a top speed of upto 55 kmph are becoming strong competition to petrol alternatives. Look at vehicles from some of the established brands launching vehicles between Rs. 55,000 and 75,000 Prediction: the electric scooters with lithium ion batteries are going to be a major hit this year. The two methods to manufacture the lithium ion packs include importing the cells

drop in Electric Vehicle prices across segments.

India’s smog chamber delhi has recently launched the delhi EV policy, a good step in the right direction to making Electric Vehicles price competitive to petroleum based vehicles.

The policy is also going to spearhead the installation of charging infrastructure in the Delhi and NCR region. Fast and longer range electric two wheelers subsidized by about 30% collectively and a substantial support for charging infrastructure as well.

and making the packs domestically or importing the packs. The advantages of assembling

Prediction: Delhi is going to be India’s first model Electric Vehicle city, the new Delhi EV

the packs locally are manifold, starting from tighter quality control, faster turnaround time

policy seems to be a major hit.

and vertical integration in supply allowing for faster manufacturing cycles.

Mr. Amalraj, CEO, Tirame Technology Pvt ltd.

At the outset, we wish to inform you all that we are not

calls to great companies , participated in exhibitions saying that we have CELL CYCLERS

manufacturers or either researchers on Lithium ion batteries

to provide you to test your LITHIUM ION BATTERIES . Luck was on our side, we have

towards EMOBILITY. As a young entrepreneurs we have focused

received orders from big companies and Government research Institutes who are now

on reliability testing for auto components. Time had a different

actively working towards EV projects.

plan on our business. In the recent past times we had frequently seeing the name E Vehicles , Government policy towards EV, Lithium Ion battery and etc ..just going thru all this we focused on TESTING equipment for Lithium Ion batteries.

We then partnered with a reputed company in China for the promotion of CELL CYCLERS to evaluate the Charge, Discharge activities with various cells to battery packs.

Though it is humorous to quote here, yet the reality side , in the initial days we doesn’t have any knowledge on what the cell cycler does , but we enter the market and made cold

Time and need of the hour was the tutor to us. We learnt and adhere towards the markers of E MOBILITY like a chameleon(in terms of positive cause). Now we are planning to set up battery testers in our lab along with reliability test equipment to cater the new market entrant who could not afford to buy the cell cyclers.

Hope India will have a cleaner energy providing better quality of life for our future generation. And we are happy to be the part of that mission “Clean, Safe and Greener India”.

Mr. Akarsh Gupta, Director , Snel Charge India Pvt. Ltd (A Chemi Tech Group Company)

In 2019, E-mobility market will be dominated by the launch

in open access for all the chargers in a single area, which will make charging even more

of Electric Vehicles by automotive giants like Mahindra, Tata,

cost effective.

Hyundai and Maruti. The infrastructure will develop around these cars and many other automotive players will announce new launches and models.

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure sector will focus mostly on fast charging and public charging, as domestic chargers will take another 1 year to be adopted at domestic level. As the fast charging infrastructure develops, there will be more focus on how to

The market will move tremendously after Maruti will launch its Electric Wagon-R, which will be trusted and I think adaptable by even the most conservative customers.

Electric Vehicle Policy of New Delhi will also be closely watched and it can prove to be a benchmark for other states.

avoid grid modification using storage, power allocation, power spikes and scheduling and

A lot of push will be given to public Electric buses by all the state governments in 2019.

real-time monitoring.

State electric buses carry a lot of scope as public transport departments own huge parking

Most DISCOMs will be coming out with their tariffs and rules for Chargers. The new

spaces in form of bus terminals, thus, many chargers can be installed and a visible change

Electricity Act should bring in new rules so that charger aggregators could buy electricity

in pollution and fuel consumption will be seen in cities.

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Industry Insights

Modeling the Charging Infrastructure Needed To Support EV Growth

EEI and IEI estimated the EV charging infrastructure needed to support the more than 18

while the partial support option assumes more PHEV trips will be completed using the

million EVs projected to be on the road in 2030 using the Department of Energy’s Electric

gasoline range once the electric range is depleted. This analysis chose the full support

Vehicle Infrastructure Projection (EVI-Pro) Lite tool. The EVI-Pro Lite tool is a simplified,

option, with the assumption that PHEV drivers will seek to maximize their electric miles and

publicly accessible version of a model developed by the National Renewable Energy Lab

minimize their gasoline miles and that providing the necessary charging infrastructure to

(NREL) to estimate the demand for EV charging infrastructure. The tool estimates the

do so will be needed to drive adoption to the forecasted level. This assumption effectively

number of charging ports needed within a city or state to support a given EV population,

increases the number of Level 2 ports.

based on vehicle travel patterns as well as EV and charging station characteristics. The tool allows users to adjust key assumptions, such as the mix of BEVs versus PHEVs and the amount of charging done at home. Based on the EEI/IEI forecast, we estimate that about 9.6 million charge ports will be needed to support the 18.7 million EVs projected to be on the road in 2030. The mix of charge ports by location is shown in Figure EV Charging Infrastructure in 2030 Based on EEI/IEI Forecast



Home Charging: The EVI-Pro Lite tool default assumption is that all EV drivers have

access to overnight charging at home and begin each day with a full charge. While this assumption may closely approximate the EV population today, this analysis assumes that the forecasted EV buyers will resemble conventional vehicle households more closely.

Studies suggest only about 80 percent of households have access to off-street parking, and even fewer have access to a dedicated off-street parking space. This analysis assumed 80 percent of the forecasted EV population would have access to home charging, which effectively increases the charging ports needed in other locations. Additionally, this analysis assigned a home Level 2 charging station to half of these EVs with home charging (40 percent of the forecasted EV population), with the assumption that Level 1 charging at home will be available and sufficient for the remaining EVs.

Approaches to Deploying EV Charging Infrastructure

The EV market is driven by a myriad of dynamics, including customer awareness and acceptance, the types of EVs available and their affordability, and the availability of charging infrastructure. It is well established that the lack of EV charging infrastructure is a primary barrier to EV adoption. The analysis using the EVI-Pro Lite tool in this report estimates the Our assumptions include:

charging infrastructure needed to support a certain level of EVs. In this section, we discuss approaches for deploying EV charging infrastructure.



EV Population: The EVI-Pro Lite tool does not provide a national calculation option,

so the results shown are the sum of the outputs for individual analyses of all 50 states

Today, approximately 45,000 public Level 2 charging ports and 9,000 DCFC ports are

and the District of Columbia. The 18.7 million EVs were allocated by applying a uniform

available, including those dedicated to Tesla vehicles. The precise number of workplace

sales growth rate to each state. Since the tool limits the EV population to no more than

Level 2 charging stations is unknown. Based on the EVI-Pro Lite tool results, as shown

10 percent of all registered vehicles, states that exceeded this market share were capped

in Figure 5, more than 2 million charge ports in workplaces and public locations will be

at 10 percent and the excess vehicles were allocated to the remaining states based on

needed by 2030. The significant difference between the current availability of charging

their EV market share. This effectively shifts the EV distribution among the states closer

infrastructure and the expected charging infrastructure needed suggests a growing

to that of the conventional vehicle population, which is reasonable as EVs become more

“infrastructure gap” that must be addressed.

mainstream.



Vehicle Mix: The EVI-Pro Lite tool simplifies EV models to four types – PHEVs with

One of the impediments to widespread charging infrastructure availability is the cost. The costs associated with EV charging infrastructure include the equipment itself, ongoing

electric ranges of 20 and 50 miles and BEVs with electric ranges of 100 and 250 miles. This

operation and maintenance costs, and the installation costs needed to get power to the

analysis assumed a split of: 15 percent 20-mile PHEVs; 25 percent 50-mile PHEVs; 15 percent

charging station site. These costs can vary widely, from a few hundred dollars to install a

100-mile BEVs; and 45 percent 250-mile BEVs. While the current EV population is roughly

Level 2 charger at home to tens of thousands of dollars to install a DCFC.14 Much of the EV

50-50 split between PHEVs and BEVs, this projected split reflects a 60-40 bias toward BEVs

charging infrastructure to date has been paid for by the customer or entity that hosts the

that is estimated based on automaker product announcements. This effectively increases

charging equipment (the “site host”), whether that is a homeowner, a commercial property

the number of DCFC ports needed, while reducing the number of Level 2 ports.

owner, or a public entity.



Support for PHEVs: The EVI-Pro Lite tool allows users to select “partial” or “full”

support for PHEV drivers. The full support option adds Level 2 chargers at workplace and public locations, such that most PHEV trips can be completed on the electric range only,

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Credits: Innovation Norway; India EV Story: Emerging Opportunities

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Industry Insights

Cost Estimates and Revenue Model For A Public Charging Station (PCS) Government of India recently released a notification titled ‘Charging Infrastructure for

be charged in a large industrial scale facility and charged batteries are trucked to points

Electric Vehicles – Guidelines and Standards -reg.’. Availability of adequate charging

of 3-wheeler concentration where a 3-wheeler driver can swap the used battery with a

infrastructure is acknowledged as a key requirement for accelerated electric vehicle

fully charged one. Alternatively technology proprietors may install swap stations at a PCS.

adoption in the country. In accordance, setting up of Public Charging Stations (PCS) has

3-wheelers could also be charged at any PCS.

been de-licensed and any individual/entity is free to set up public charging stations,

Buses with battery sizes >100kWh would be sold with proprietary charging standards

provided the stations meet the technical as well as performance standards laid down.

recommended by the battery manufacturer. These batteries will cost several million rupees and it is not advisable to charge from any PCS. Bus operators will install the charging

Any individual/entity setting up a PCS will need to have the following minimum

devices supplied (or recommended) by the bus manufacturer at bus depots and bus

infrastructure as described in the notification:

depots as required.

Present models of electric cars come with various sizes of batteries - 11kWh (Mahindra e20) to 40kWh (Nissan Leaf) to >90kWh (Tesla Model S). These EVs require DCFCs for fast charging. The whole issue of inter-operability of EVSE for different EV models is essentially limited to cars.

In India so far only Mahindra Electric and Tata Motors have launched electric cars. The present batteries in these cars are not suitable for charging above 1C rate. The off take of electric cars may be slow as individual buyers might watch the space and move with caution as in other geographies. The initial push for electric cars is expected from taxi fleet operators, Government departments, public sector undertakings and large corporates.

Cost Estimates for a Typical Public Charging Station (PCS): The Capex and Opex of a PCS comprising of minimum infrastructure required as per the GoI notification are estimated below:

Table 1 - Capex and Opex Estimates of a Typical Public Charging Station:

Each charging station is required to have a minimum of three fast chargers: a CCS, a CHAdeMo and a Type-2 AC. While the former two will be required to operate on 50kW/ 200-1000V, the Type-2 would be 22kW/ 380-480V. Additionally, the charging station will also have two slow charge points - a Bharat DC-001 (15 kW/ 72-200V) and a Bharat AC001 (10 kW/ 230V).

A typical 50 kWh DCFC costs over Rs 1.5 million. Since present models of EVs sold in India cannot be charged above 1C rate and batteries are 11kWh to 25kWh capacity, investment in DCFC of over 25 kWh would yield unappealing returns, unless manufacturers roll out electric cars with batteries capable of fast charging with DC output in the range of 400500V or higher. This will eventually increase the capacity utilization at PCS and enhance revenues for charging infrastructure providers, making investment in a public charging stations an attractive option.

Charging Standards Application:

*The cost of swap station is considered to be borne by the swap station technology proprietor. PCS provides space for a swap station in return of margin on sale of electricity.

The IS:17017-1 published by BIS in August 2018 recommends both CCS-2 and CHAdeMO. In 2017, a Committee constituted by Department of Heavy Industries (DHI) issued Bharat charger specifications for AC and DC chargers: Bharat EV Charger AC001 & DC001. These are slow chargers with DC output below 120 Volts. BIS has agreed to retain these standards which are supporting the EVs presently operating in India. These are expected to wither

**Land lease rental is assumed to be low as per Delhi EV policy guidelines on providing land at bare minimum lease rentals to charging infrastructure providers.

Revenue Projections from a Typical Public Charging Station (PCS)

away as new EVs are rolled out with batteries capable of fast charging with DC output in the range of 400-500V or higher.

Revenue projection from the PCS business is calculated in the next table based on the

All standards will co-exist in India: CCS-2, CHAdeMO and the Bharat chargers. Tesla cars,

following assumptions:

according to recent reports will use CCS standard when launched in India.

1. 20 hours of charging operations for 30 days/month The status can be summarized as:

2. Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) of PCS setup considered at 15% for Year-1, 25% for Year-2, 40% for Year-3, 65% for Year-4 and 85% for Year-5 (optimistic scenario)

Two wheelers come with small size batteries which in many cases can be pulled out and

3. Electricity tariff to the DISCOM is considered as pass through to consumer

taken to homes/offices/shops and charged from normal wall sockets; or can be connected

4. A margin of Rs 2.5 on electricity tariff is considered in Scenario-A

to any PCS.

5. A margin of Rs 3 in first & second year, Rs 2.5 in third & fourth year and Rs 2 from fifth

Three wheelers are ideal candidates for battery swapping. In this scenario, batteries may

year on wards is considered in Scenario-B 6. EVSE Management Software fee considered @10% of net margin on electricity tariff

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E-Mobility+ • December E-Mobility+• December2018 2018 12 12

Industry Insights Table 2 - Revenue Projections from a Typical PCS:

expenses. Considering the cost estimates in Table-1, if 100% cost of chargers is subsidized,

the IRR on setting up a public charging station in Delhi makes it an attractive investment choice.

Table 3 - NPV & IRR of non subsidized PCS vs 100% charger cost subsidized: Since business volumes in the initial years will be very low, attracting private investments for PCS network creation can prove to be a challenge in the country; unless capex cost is partly or fully subsidized. Also, it will be difficult to build EV charging network in India as a standalone business. Innovative business models to incentivize the public charging infrastructure (PCI) providers and government will be required.

As may be observed from Table 1 and 2, for an initial investment of Rs 2.95 million to setup a PCS, the net cumulative return in 5 years is Rs 1.77 million under Scenario-A and Rs 1.53 million under Scenario-B. In both the cases there is little or no incentive for third parties to setup and operate PCS. Levying a margin more than 3 rupees will make the EV tariff at par with commercial electricity tariff.

“Buses with battery sizes >100kWh would be sold with proprietary charging standards recommended by the battery manufacturer. These batteries will cost several million rupees and it is not advisable to charge from any PCS.”

In the present scenario, PCS business is not viable for individuals/entities to invest. The government may fail to encourage third parties to set up public charging stations to accelerate electric mobility adoption. However, in case of Delhi, as per Delhi Electric Vehicle Policy, GNCTD will provide a capital subsidy covering cost of chargers and installation

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Author: Nimesh Dilip Shah, MBA | Energy & Infrastructure | Business Strategy & Development | Marketing Management | Policy & Regulatory Analysis

E-Mobility+ • December 2018 E-Mobility+• December 20181313

Industry Insights

Electric Vehicle (EV) Taxi Fleets & Ride Sharing: Poised for Huge Growth There is a lot of talk about Robo-taxis with the emergence of autonomous taxis and good milestones met by Waymo, Tesla, GM and others. This is certainly an interesting trend to watch. However, there is a here-and-now trend for 2019: electric taxi fleets and EV Ride Sharing. The economics seem compelling just from the perspective of fuel savings.

As Brent oil prices stay around $70-80/barrel or go higher, the economics will get even better. As battery costs drop by 18% for every doubling of production (aka learning curve) reducing the capex of EVs, the economics get even better. No wonder GM is expanding its Maven service across cities in the USA, and Tesla has announced its intention to enter the market soon.

So lets explore the simple math, just focusing on fuel savings and its power to contribute towards (an ever declining fixed cost of the EV). In business, the revenue minus variable costs is the contribution margin (or gross margin) that pays for fixed costs.

First, some context. The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly from a small base driven by a combination of rapid technology advances (battery cost declines, power electronics integration, and new vehicle platform emergence), relentless well capitalized new entrants (eg: Tesla, BYD etc), and a combination of government policies (mandates, subsidies). 783 000 units were delivered during H1 2018, a gain of 66 % over the same period last year. The EV sales momentum is expected to accelerate over the next few years.

BNEF observed that WW EV sales (inclusive of PHEVs) hit 4 million, and a million EVs are being sold in less than 6 months worldwide for the second consecutive time. Tesla Model 3 was the largest selling car in the US by revenue beating Toyota Camry in Q3, propelling the company to a profit and positive free cash flow.

Energy Efficiency and Energy Cost Differentials

The two key driving factors are Energy Efficiency (Fuel vs Electricity) and Energy Cost (fuel vs electricity). If both these factors are favorable, the EV transition will have greater tailwinds economically.

EVs are energy efficient (85-90% conversion of electrical energy to traction vs 20-25% for ICEs). The cost of petrol / diesel / gas is a function of world oil markets, but at levels of $7080/barrel of oil, the average retail price is about $3/gallon for gas ($3.25/gal for diesel) in USA and around $5.65/gallon (or 1.3 euro/litre) in Europe. Electricity prices in USA are lower than Europe (13 cents/kWh vs 17 cents/kWh), though there is a wide variance. There are some other components of opex (eg: lower maintenance of EVs vs diesel) and common variable costs which further strengthen the case for EVs.

The pictures below show the gas and electricity prices by state / country in USA and Europe / respectively.

Lets consider gas prices. First note: 1 gallon = 3.785 litres. 1 Euro = 1.15 USD. A mean value of 1.3 euro/litre (see trend graph below) = 1.3 x 1.15 x 3.785 = $5.66/gallon for comparison. Consider Norway which has a 2.02 euro/litre = $8.79/gallon price. In contrast Russia at 0.73 euro/litre is $3.18/gallon. Hawaii and the western states in the US have highest gas prices > $3/gallon. Obviously these numbers fluctuate, but can be considered representative for Brent oil prices of $70-80/barrel (see graphic below).

Lets contrast this with (commercial) electricity prices in these regions. Note residential electricity rates are significantly higher in Europe vs USA due to support of renewables.

US tends to have slightly lower commercial electricity prices ($0.13 average) than Europe in general ($0.14 average), not including any demand charges. The midwest regions of USA have significantly lower prices (8 cents/kWh) than the coastal regions (esp California 15-16 cents/kWh). However note that the Scandinavian countries, Netherlands etc have low commercial electricity rates as well (6-8 euro cents/kWh or 7-9 US cents/kWh) for comparison. Even Germany where the rates are 15 euro cents/kWh (or 17.25 US c/kWh) is comparable to California.

One interesting metric would be the ratio of gas (or diesel) prices to electricity prices.

Norway with a relatively high gas price ($8.79/gallon) and relatively low electricity price (7 cents/kWh) would be more attractive for EVs vs Germany with a gas price of $7.31/gallon and electricity price of 17.25 cents/kWh. Even so, as we shall see below, the cost per mile economics is starting to be compelling.

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Industry Insights The savings for 100K miles would be $19-24K, and five year savings of $95K-120K (in an environment of low interest rates, or time-value-of-money in Europe) and well above the full capital cost of a Tesla Model 3 (around $50-60K today in USA). Note that what matters is not the full capital cost, but the relative capital cost vs an ICE car, and net of resale value (i.e. impacted by depreciation). EVs with better economics, lower maintenance and long battery lives are expected to have lower depreciation as well.

Some of the cost-per-mile dynamics and sensitivities are captured in the graphic below.

Note that the European gas prices are way above the scale (average of $5.65 / gallon, and Norway at $8.79/gallon). The blue solid line (4 mi/kWh) on the left is indicative of Tesla Model 3 economics.

Summary

Given that EV prices are dropping fast, have larger battery packs, commercial end-point charging overnight is cheap, fast / ultra fast charging station networks will only grow, just The energy efficiency of average petrol/diesel cars is 0.04 gal/mile or 25 miles/gallon (40

the fuel saving economics for heavily used EVs will pay off the capex differential vs ICE in

km/gal or 10.6 km/litre). The energy efficiency of EV cars is between 3-4 miles / kWh (eg:

1-2 years and the full EV capex cost in ~3+ years.

Tesla model 3 is above 4 miles/kWh, and Tesla Model S is around 3 miles / kWh). Tesla claims an efficiency of 4.1 miles / kWh for Tesla Model 3 and 3.1 miles/kWh for Model X in its recent quarterly update to investors, and points to lower numbers for its competitors.

In other words, for an average EV car, the efficiency is 3 miles/kWh or 0.33 kWh/mile (or 33 kWh per 100 miles); and for a highly efficient EV (eg: Tesla Model 3), it is 4 miles/kWh or 0.25 kWh/mile (or 25 kWh per 100 miles). For reference, the US EPA has rated model 3 at 126 MPGe or 27 kWh per 100 miles. The Fully Charged show reports in its youtube video

Consider this: A Tesla Model 3 does 4+ miles/kWh, saving 75% (US, 11c/mi saved) -85% (Europe, 18+c/mi saved) on a cost-per-mile vs an ICE car. At a $1/mile rate, and 25% paid to Uber or Lyft or Grab or Tesla Network, the owner/driver gets 60c/mile. Even at this rate, a new Tesla Model 3 capex can be fully paid off in 100K miles driven (not just the differential vs a similar sized ICE car).

that the Hyundai Kona is even better at 5.1 miles / kWh - with a 64 kWh battery pack, and an affordable price point, fast peak charging it would also be a great car for a ride sharing

Expect to see large-scale shifts towards EV fleets of taxis, ride share and light commercial

/ taxi vehicle.

vehicles (LCVs). This is already reflected in EV adoption in markets like Norway, Netherlands etc. To understand the impact, imagine what Amazon can do to the 3PL logistics market

Cost-per-Mile: Fuel Savings

Lets put this together into a fuel savings on a per mile basis for a taxi or a ride share vehicle. A heavily used vehicle does 300 miles a day for 350 days or 100K+ miles/year. A

(similar to what they did via AWS to the computing market) as they shift from an ICE to EV fleet base for their logistics.

Oh, and governments are tightening emission rules in Europe post the diesel-gate issues of 2015 (see graphic below).

lightly used LCV does 100 miles a day for 300-350 days or 30-35K/year.

On a levelized basis, an average gasoline car (or light commercial vehicle, LCV) in USA would cost 12-15 cents / mile vs electric vehicle (EV) of 4.3-5.2 cents/mile in USA. This implies a cost per mile savings of 7-10 cents/mile or 58-66% in relative terms. Over 100K miles the fuel savings alone is $7K-$10K (which could be realized in one year for a heavily used vehicle).

In Europe, an average gasoline car (or light commercial vehicle, LCV) in USA would cost 23-28 cents / mile vs electric vehicle (EV) of 5.8-6.9 cents/mile in Europe. This implies a cost per mile savings of 17-21 cents/mile or 75% in relative terms. Over 100K miles the fuel savings alone is $17K-$21K (which could be realized in one year for a heavily used vehicle).

City councils are creating low emissions zones (LEZ) and announced long term ban of Note: At a cost of $0.13 / kWh or $130 / MWh (average commercial electricity tariffs in USA), it implies a cost-per-mile of $0.043 – 0.052 / mile for an e-LCV or EV car. Annual charging energy demand for 100K miles/year is 25-40 MWh/year/vehicle. Annual charging cost is $3250 – 5200 / year/vehicle vs annual fuel cost is $12,000 – 15000.

ICE (> 2030 etc). This has prompted companies like Uber to accelerate its EV push for its partners in London.

Taxis, ride share and fleet vehicles will rapidly transition to electric over the next 2-3 years.

The transition will be faster than you think since the competitive pressure of not making the switch will be a huge drag on the slow movers.

Annual charging energy demand for 100K miles/year is 25-40 MWh/year/vehicle. Annual charging cost is at €150/MWh (or 15 €-cents/kWh, based upon German rates, see earlier graphic) represents a charging cost of €3750 – 6000/year/vehicle. Compare this to annual fuel cost in Europe of €19.5K – 24.5K!

The economics becomes even better for a more efficient EV like the Tesla Model 3 which will deliver saving of 11-12 cents/mile or 73-80% over an ICE car in the USA. In Europe,

Note that all the changes that I have talked about is BEFORE the potential productivity gains from Autonomous or Robo-taxi technologies. Just the electrification of transportation is the first here-and-now game-changer, especially in major developed markets around the world.

Author: Shivkumar Kalyanaraman, Executive Leader, Growth Offerings & Initiatives at GE Power Conversion

18.7-23.7 US cents/mile (vs a baseline of 23-28 cents/mile for ICE) or 85% in percentage terms.

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E-Mobility+ • December 2018 E-Mobility+• December 20181515

CompanyInsights Feature Industry

ASTM Constantly & Consistently Enhances Its Product Range For Its Wide Array Of Customers.

The cumulative annual growth rate of market share of electric vehicles is expected to touch 15% to 20% by 2020. Apart from PHEV, BEV and HEV vehicles, hybrid and eco drive vehicles are also contributing to this growth.

However, the drivers of this amazing growth trend are dependent upon quite a number of factors. Electric load, and power of electric system impact the performance and acceptance of electric vehicles to greater extent.

Thus, high voltage and high powered electric vehicles are making their entry to locomotive market each year.

The performance with respect to energy efficiency, power to weight ratio, temperature performance, and overall lifecycle of these vehicles are dependent on battery management system and circuit protection of these locomotives to a considerable extent.

Electric and hybrid vehicles operating through the use of high voltage batteries require specific attention in monitoring and protection. Overcharging and discharging of current reduces the efficiency and lifespan of batteries.

On the other hand excessive current flow causes shorts and dendritic plating which in turn destroys the cell linings. Undervoltage of batteries is another important problem that causes breakdown or shorts in electrode materials. Excessive increase in temperature may result in a series of events that may start at short-circuit and end at outgassing of flammable gases present in organic solvent.

Effective battery management system and proper circuit protection reduces majority of these risks by preventing dangerous battery failures.

Fuses are prominent components of electric vehicles that are used in various parts of the vehicles. Fuse provides overcurrent protection to an electrical circuit and is an irreplaceable part of Electric vehicle design. At Advanced Surge Tech Materials Ltd (ASTM) various high performance and reliable circuit protection, electrical and electronic products are designed and manufactured. ASTM produces various types of fuses such as Brick Fuse, Cartridge Fuses of high voltage series, DMI fuse, EV protection fuses, Low voltage fuses, Photovoltaic fuse and Surface mount fuses. Apart from these fuses, the company also produces fuse accessories and ESD suppressor.

National and international standards for automotive and electrical components provide necessary guidelines that are in place to minimize security related risks, guarantee safety and quality of any product. ASTM has a strong understanding of these standards whether it’s the IEC, UL or the JASO standards. ASTM complies with major global electrical safety bodies. ASTM has been awarded the ISO/TS 16949 which is one the major requirement for the EV fuses.

All the products are designed to comply with the relevant standards. Design and testing of EV fuses is different from other fuses. Hence, they have a dedicated inhouse facility for vibration test, high temperature life test, thermal shock, humidity and temperature cycling test apart from short circuit and other electrical parameter testing.

company. ASTM is proud to have substantial infrastructural capacity to serve bulk and customised requirements.

The wide ranging verticals of customer base are considered both opportunity and challenge at ASTM as the company expands its research and development division for each sector.

Keeping the unique designs of each types of electric vehicles and the manufacturing companies in mind, the design team at ASTM develops unique fuses by working alongside customers. The design team of the company consists of highly experienced people from various field of engineering. They have a wide experience with some of the global fuse manufacturers before they embarked upon building ASTM. The environment inside the manufacturing base provides a team building atmosphere that not only binds the people working there but also the customers that become part of the team to develop customised products. For customisation of products, the company has a dedicated field application team that specifically cater to the customer requirements through all stages of product development. The comprehensive range of fuses offered by the company give protection to various components and segments of electric vehicles such as power distribution unit, motor control, battery pack, battery management system, and the onboard charging system. Both quality and range of the products manufactured at ASTM contribute toward its reputation among some of the largest electric vehicle manufacturers across the world.

The vast experience gained from these global customers helps and motivates the people working in the company to work further diligently to provide better products and services to the global electric vehicle platform.

Contact fae@astml.com or indiasales@astml.com for design related queries or if you have any

EV fuses are designed to protect sensitive equipments of electric and hybrid vehicles.

The ceramic body of the fuses enables electric shock resistance whereas the sliver plated copper terminal helps in smooth conduction of electricity. Both AC and DC acting fuses are designed by the company with various level of voltage capability. Some of the series of EV protection fuses manufactured by the company are: EV1451 series 700Vdc 5-100A, EV1845 700VDC series 5A-150A, EV1868 700VDC series 50A-100A, BEV5-XX-CT 500VDC 200A-600A. These EV protection series can be used for light and heavy electric vehicles as per their design. The company also manufactures fuse accessories such as fuse accessory for Cartridge Fuse, MH1P fuse holder for HEV application, PVAH1U 10X38 PV fuse holder and MH3P fuse holder for HEV application.

ASTM constantly and consistently enhances its product range for its wide array of customers. From consumer electronics to electrical vehicles, commercial industrial power supply to telecom data and renewable energy, ASTM thrives to satisfy the market demand with utmost reliable products. The products developed at ASTM are designed with the basic fundamental of safety for people, property and the environment. The range of products offered by ASTM is comprehensive with respect to market demand and future expectations. The various electrical vehicle applications are designed up to the range of 1000v so as to cater to different segments of electrical vehicle manufacturers. The product range has been designed keeping the global scenario within perspective. Different companies have different requirements as the various national and international markets.

The extensive and quality product range also signifies the manufacturing capability of the

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requirements.

“Excessive increase in temperature may result in a series of events that may start at shortcircuit and end at outgassing of flammable gases present in organic solvent. Effective battery management system and proper circuit protection reduces majority of these risks by preventing dangerous battery failures.”

Solar E-Mobility+• Quarter • December 2018 December 20181616 E-Mobility+ • December 2018 16

The experts for e-mobility

Plug&Play Charging Box (AC)

Power Output: 230/400V, upto 32A 2 Charging points: EU Typ2 upto 22kW each

Charging Station (AC)

Power Output: 230/400V, upto 32A 2 Charging points: EU Typ2 upto 22kW each

Wallbox (AC)

Power Output: 400V, upto 32A 1 Charging point: EU Typ2 upto 22kW

chargeIT Charging Controller The heart + brain of the Charging Station Upgrade and easily incorporated into third party charging stations

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Technology News

B

B

irds descend on Athens: What to know about the new electric scooters around town

oston orders nearly 200 electric-hybrid systems from BAE Systems

The University of Georgia, with its limited parking and rolling hills, is home to a variety of

BAE Systems, a global provider of more than 10,000 electric-hybrid, battery-electric, and

commuters: bus and bike riders, drivers and pedestrians. But on Thursday, Aug. 16, a new

fuel-cell electric systems, today announced that the Massachusetts Bay Transportation

form of transit appeared around town — Birds.

Authority (MBTA) has ordered 194 electric-hybrid buses using the BAE Systems Series-

These Birds don’t fly. Instead, they’re electric motorized scooters, available to rent for any

ER extended range propulsion system. As transit agencies continue to advance toward

licensed 18-year-old with a smartphone and a credit card.

more electric systems to help them meet their environmental goals, the demand for

The scooters, with a maximum speed of 15 mph, can be located using an in-app map,

BAE Systems’ reliable and efficient hybrid-electric systems continues to grow. Half of

and then “unlocked” for $1 by scanning a QR code. Once in use, Bird charges 20 cents per

the 10,000 system deliveries were made in the past three years, demonstrating a rising

minute to ride a scooter.

trend for BAE Systems’ propulsion systems.

Jeff Montgomery, Athens-Clarke County public information officer, noted Bird riders

The company is delivering its Series-ER system with a higher capacity battery to help

might put themselves at risk for breaking the law. State law prohibits the scooters from

Massachusetts reduce emissions and noise pollution on its transit bus routes. The

being driven on the sidewalk, and a local ordinance said they are not to be parked on

Series-ER system – which uses electric motors instead of diesel engines to power the

sidewalks or “places other than in parking spaces or on private property.”

buses - builds on the company’s proven technology that is saving more than 22 million

“Anyone doing either of these would be potentially subject to a citation,” Montgomery

gallons of fuel and 250,000 tons of CO2 each year across the globe.

said in an email.

Traditionally, a transit bus powers its wheels with a diesel engine, which produces

Montgomery also said county officials from different departments are looking into

harmful emissions and uses large amounts of fuel. Instead, electric-hybrid buses are

public safety issues that may arise from the scooters’ introduction, and the Legislative

propelled by an electric motor, with power provided from a highly efficient battery

Review Committee is already planning to consider explicitly permitting or banning “non-

system. The battery is recharged by both an on-board generator set, using a down-

traditional two-wheeled vehicles.”

sized internal combustion engine and by regenerative energy produced when the bus

“The Mayor and Commission approved some ordinance revisions earlier this month

slows to a stop. By moving to a Series-ER system, a fleet can operate a portion of

related to four-wheelers such as ATVs and golf carts,” Montgomery said.

the day electrically with the engine off, reducing maintenance, idling, fuel use and

On the same day the scooters showed up in Athens, Bird announced its “University Pop-Up

emissions. Transit operators are embracing this technology because it gives them zero

Tour” in a press release. The scooters will be debuted at 150 colleges across the country.

emission travel without the need to stop and charge the bus, and it eliminates the

It’s unclear whether the tour is a trial run or if the scooters are here to stay.

need to invest in costly charging infrastructure.

N

N

XP Speeds Electric Vehicle Development With New Power Inverter Platform

ow convert your car into electric or hybrid easily: Here’s how

NXP Semiconductors N.V., the world’s largest supplier of automotive semiconductors, has

Automakers and suppliers will have to get separate approvals from ARAI and Government

announced a new automotive power control reference platform for an electric vehicle

for the approved hybrid and electric retro fitment.

traction motor inverter.

When implemented, this will further disrupt the Indian car market but will also help in

NXP’s new power inverter reference design platform combines its comprehensive portfolio

reducing emissions.

of world-class automotive microcontrollers, robust power management system basis

In a recent draft notification issued by Nitin Gadkari led Ministry of Road Transport and

chips, and new isolated high-voltage IGBT gate drivers with application specific system enablement software to help carmakers deliver the next generation of hybrid and electric vehicles with greater speed and less development risk.

Highways states that the Motor Vehicles Act 1989 will further have a new law that will allow retro-fitment or aftermarket treatment of a hybrid or an electric system of existing vehicles.

The government has further asked for suggestions and objections for this proposal and

Traction motor inverters convert DC battery voltage to multi-phase alternating current

a permanent notification along with specifications will be issued later. The draft says that

to drive the traction motors of electric and hybrid vehicles at the speed and acceleration

for an electric or a hybrid vehicle to have aftermarket fitment will be done as per the gross

demanded by the driver. Complex system control is required to monitor the motor’s state,

weight of the vehicle and will be divided further into three categories and shall be in line

sense the driving currents and reliably calculate and apply the desired torque energy.

with AIS-123 standards.

NXP has partnered with VEPCO Technologies, Inc. to engineer an ASIL-D-capable, high-

MoRTH in the draft said that cars and small goods carriers with a gross weight of fewer

voltage power control reference platform and inverter prototype. For the prototype, the

than 3,500 kilograms will get a Hybrid Electric System. Automotive Research Association

platform controls a Fuji Electric 800V silicon IGBT power module with integrated current

of India (ARAI), a government-appointed body in a 2013 report had defined HES as a

and temperature sensing for driving 100 kW 3-phase motors.

combination of components added by automakers or suppliers to the base of the vehicle

NXP plans to enable its customers to develop motor inverters based on the reference

that will result in Hybrid Electric operation without modification/change/fuel type of base

design platform with its system control components, enablement software and functional

vehicle powertrain and base vehicle configuration.

safety enablement while VEPCO Technologies will offer contract system engineering

The second category is for SUVs and above 4-meter vehicles with weight more than 3,500

services for application and performance specific development on the platform.

kgs and then there will be a separate provision under CMRV that will allow the entire IC

“VEPCO Technologies’ deep motor drive knowledge and system experience together with

engine to be replaced by an electric motor operation. These retro fitments of vehicles will

NXP’s comprehensive automotive portfolio, functional safety products and tools offer our

be done via authorized service centres.

customers a compelling power inverter enablement platform,” said Dr. Guoliang Zhang,

Automakers and suppliers will need to get separate approvals from ARAI and Government

director of systems engineering at VEPCO. “Our professional engineering services, such

for this approved hybrid and electric retro fitment. When implemented, this will further

as customized application IPs, added on top of the Power Inverter Module platform will

disrupt the Indian carmarket but will also help in reducing emissions and will give a new

advance the platform to meet a customer’s unique safety and technical requirements with

life to vintage cars.

significant time-to-market savings and development cost reduction.”

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Company News

S

E

hell Invests Millions In Silicon Valley Start-Up For Fast Charging Of Electric Cars

NGIE Beefs Up Stake In Kiwi Power

Shell is going to invest millions in start-up Ample in Silicon Valley. Ample has, in his own

French energy giant confirms it has acquired additional stake in UK demand response

words, developed a technology to charge electric cars quickly. This has been announced

specialist KiWi Power. ENGIE has increased its stake in UK-based demand response and

by the company, which has not yet been officially launched. Ample completed a first round of financing of $ 31 mln, which was led by Shell Ventures. Other investors are Moore Strategic Ventures, Repsol Energy Ventures, Hemi Ventures and TRIREC.

energy storage specialist KiWi Power for an undisclosed sum.

The French energy services giant announced yesterday that it has acquired the shares in KiWi Power held by the company’s two co-founders, Yoav Zingher and Ziko Abram. The

‘Scalable solution’ ‘The financing will be used in the coming months to implement Ample technology at multiple locations’, Ample said in a press release.

“Building a scalable solution for charging electric vehicles requires a new approach to

move builds on ENGIE’s previous investment in KiWi Power, which was made three years ago when KiWi Power and ENGIE entered into a strategic relationship to jointly develop a portfolio of demand response services and energy storage projects. Reports suggested

infrastructure and partners who are committed to the development of electrification as

that as part of the deal Yoav Zingher and Ziko Abram have exited the company. KiWi

the new energy supply,” says Khaled Hassounah, CEO and co-founder of Ample in a press

Power had not responded to a request for comment at the time of going to press.

statement.

In a statement, the company said the share purchase was “a testament to the robustness

Fast charging

of KiWi Power’s agile technology, its ever-expanding UK, global and energy storage

Ample has developed a platform that fully charges an electric car within a few minutes. ‘As

portfolio, and its expertise in navigating in a highly complex, competitive, and regulated

an alternative to traditional charging, Ample uses autonomous robotics and smart-battery

market”. “It also marks the start of the next phase of growth for KiWi Power, backed by

technology,’ the company writes.

Rapid loaders already exist, but are still mainly along motorways, such as Fastned. That Dutch company is growing fast, but is not making a profit yet. Tesla also has its own network of fast chargers.

its other major shareholders who have supported the company since its inception, as the company scales up its best-in-class technology for deployment across its UK and international client base and in partnership with ENGIE’s global operations,” it added.

The remaining stake in the company is reported to be held by an unnamed private

Automatic change of batteries Exactly what Ample technology looks like is not known. The company is still in the start-

equity firm.

up phase and the website only mentions ‘Coming Soon’ and the text ‘electric cars for

The deal is a further vote of confidence in the fast-expanding demand-side response,

everyone’. According to the news website electrec, which reports about electric cars, it

which helps businesses and other organisations to automatically curb power demand

would appear from a document that Ample is working on a charging technology in which

during periods of peak demand, reducing energy bills and allowing them to sell flexible

the batteries in the car are fully automatic. This technique would not require a connection to the electricity grid.

grid provisions to grid operators.

N

S

issan’s E-POWER System Wins Technology Award

olarEdge’s EV-Charging PV Inverter Wins The 2018 BIG Awards For Business

SolarEdge Technologies, Inc., a global leader in smart energy, is a winner of the 2018

Nissan’s e-POWER electrified powertrain, available in the Serena minivan, has been

BIG Awards for Business. The Company received the “New Product of the Year Award”

named Technology of the Year for 2019 by the Automotive Researchers’ and Journalists’

for its EV-charging inverter in the Energy Category.

Conference of Japan.

Founded with the mission of recognizing true talent and superior performance in the

RJC announced the award today, following a final round of voting for its annual Car of the

business world, the Business Intelligence Group awards companies whose achievements stand above those of their peers.

SolarEdge developed the world’s first EV-charging solar inverter which offers the fastest AC EV charging rates by supplementing grid power with PV power. The Level 2 EV charger offers charging of up to six times faster than a standard Level 1 charger with its innovative solar boost mode. SolarEdge’s inverter with HD-Wave technology integrated with an EV charger enables PV production and EV charging from a single inverter and monitoring and management platform. The combined solution allows EV

Year awards on Nov. 13.

“Nissan created an electrified vehicle with excellent fuel efficiency at low costs by using existing in-house products to comprise core components such as the engine and battery,” the committee said in a statement. “Taking full advantage of the regenerative brake system, the e-POWER system enables one-pedal operation, easing driver workload and hence making driving more enjoyable.”

The Nissan Serena became the second model equipped with e-POWER in February 2018, following the Nissan Note e-POWER, which was introduced in Japan in November 2016.

The e-POWER system combines an electric motor, which drives the wheels, with a gasoline

owners to charge their vehicles with renewable energy and offers considerable cost

engine that charges the vehicle’s battery.

savings on both hardware and installation.

Because the wheels are driven by an electric motor, the e-POWER system treats drivers

“The BIG awards recognize truly innovative thinking that leads to both business

to the powerful, smooth acceleration of an all-electric vehicle, with torque delivery from

excellence and industry breakthroughs,” said Maria Jimenez, Chief Nominations

the system surpassing that of a minivan with a 3.5-liter engine. Used solely to charge the

Officer of Business Intelligence Group. “By combining EV charging with solar energy,

battery, the gasoline engine runs at a constant, optimal speed for maximum fuel efficiency,

SolarEdge has joined two formerly separate sectors and potentially helped accelerate

achieving 26.2 km/L, No. 1 in its class.

the adoption of both.”

Fun and comfortable to drive, the Serena e-POWER has been a hit in Japan. Since its

“Dedicated to developing innovative solutions for increasing the use of renewable energy and cost savings for our customers and end users, SolarEdge is re-defining the way we power our homes and lives,” stated Lior Handelsman, VP of Marketing and Product Strategy, Founder of SolarEdge. “We are honored that our EV-charging inverter is selected as the New Product of the Year in the Energy category by the BIG Awards for business.”

launch, 40% of Serena buyers have chosen the e-POWER version. In addition to the system’s powerful acceleration, its e-POWER Drive mode offers the convenience of being able to speed up or decelerate by using only the accelerator pedal. Using the e-POWER Drive mode, stress is relieved as brake pedal application decreases by nearly 70%.

With optimized engine management and noise reduction measures throughout the vehicle body, the Serena e-POWER also transcends its class in terms of quietness.

The e-POWER system is a key part of Nissan’s electrification strategy. Nissan plans to

SolarEdge’s EV-charging PV inverter is already available in the United States and is

launch more e-POWER models globally as part of its Nissan Intelligent Mobility vision for

expected to be available in other parts of the world at the beginning of 2019.

changing how cars are powered, driven and integrated into society.

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E-Mobility+• December2018 2018 20 20 E-Mobility+ • December

Charging the rEVolution

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E-Mobility+ • December 2018 21

Industry Insights

Approach For Likely Future Market Estimation

The approach to the likely future market for EV Chargers is set out below:

ii) We have considered the industry view that the AC Chargers (Slow) will dominate for some years now and DC Fast Charging could be the future

For the context of this exercise, only the Public Charging Infrastructure required for

iii) Accordingly, we have used the norm of DC Chargers to be about 60% of the business

passenger cars is being considered as the market potential for the Client (2/3W are likely

by 2026

to shift to Battery swapping in a large way and will rely on home chargers; Buses are also likely to move to the Battery Swapping model in India). 

Likely future market for EV Chargers in India

Currently, there is low visibility on how things are likely to pan out in EVs and EV

Chargers segment in India, so there is a need to make certain assumptions - we have spoken to the Industry stakeholders and validated some of these assumptions. 

These assumptions could be relooked in the future and the future estimation of the

market could be adjusted accordingly as per new inputs in future.

1. The base estimation of likely passenger car additions by 2026 considered:

i) We expect anywhere from 130,000 to 4,300,000 nos of Electric Cars to be added by 2026 based on the 2 scenarios set out by NITI Ayog in India ii) ASSUMPTION: Feedback has reckoned a conservative number of 2,000,000 Electric cars by 2026 in India, assuming the NITI Ayog’s plan to be very ambitious; the market likely to grow given the spate of new entrants and the push by the Government and the likely fall in prices going forward.

2. Next, the norms of No. of EV Charging stations required for the EVs on road considered, as per industry estimate, this could be in the range for 1 EV Charging station per 4-6 vehicles, so a norm of 5 vehicles considered

3. Dividing the no of EVs likely with this norm, gives us no of charging stations required

i) To reach a milestone of meeting the charging requirement of 2,000,000 Electric Cars, around 400,000 nos of Charging stations are required by 2026 ii) This estimation is also validated from our interviews with NTPC, when asked them about why 100,000 nos of EV charging stations are being planned by them – they had mentioned that they would like to kick start the EV revolution in India by installing the initial 20-30% of EV Chargers required for India – then the private sector could chip in and take this industry ahead.

Only the Public Charging Infrastructure required for passenger cars is being considered as the market potential for the Client (2/3W are likely to shift to Battery swapping in a large way and will rely on home chargers; Buses are also likely to move to the Battery Swapping model in India).

4. Next, we used the norm of no of EV Chargers used per EV Charging Station

i) We expect the average no of EV Chargers per station from an average of 4 / station to go up to 6 / station by 2026 Credits: Innovation Norway; India EV Story: Emerging Opportunities

5. Next the norms of the type of Chargers (AC/DC and Slow / Fast ) was considered

i) This is an area which will depend on the pace of technology developments and the prices of EV Chargers going forward

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E-Mobility+• December2018 2018 22 22 E-Mobility+ • December

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E-Mobility+ • December 2018 23

Industry Insights

Future Of Electric Vehicles Adoption In India The analysis leads to 3 major conclusions about the future of EV adoption in India.

1. If both swapping and demand aggregation work as per plan, India may reach an EV sales volume of more than 1.6 Million vehicles in FY23, mainly driven by government procurement and 3-wheelers.

Government procurement is expected to be a major driver for growth in the coming few years, through procurement of 4-wheelers for government offices and 3-wheelers and buses for public transportation. Investment by fleet operators like Ola and Uber, as well as some food delivery operators, is also likely to drive initial growth in electric 4-wheelers and 2-wheelers. However, adoption of lower mileage, privately owned 4-wheelers and 2-wheelers could also reach an inflection point in 5-6 years, on the back of decreasing battery costs and increasing charging infrastructure availability. The customer mix and drivers for each category is expected to be as follows:

 4-Wheelers: This will be largely driven by government procurement and fleet operators in the early stage. Government procurement is expected to be 30,000 vehicles till 2023, by which time there could be an inflection point for adoption amongst low mileage private owners. Mahindra and Tata will continue to grow their presence to cater to government contracts and growing private demand. Entry is also likely by MNCs like Nissan, Hyundai and Honda in the coming years.



2-Wheelers: The segment will be private ownership and subsidy driven, and will

be characterized by a migration from Lead Acid to Lithium-ion batteries and from low

* E-rickshaw sales have been excluded from this table due to lack of reliable projections of rickshaw sales in India. Source: Avalon Consulting Research and Analysis

speed to high speed vehicles. For example, all major OEMs like Hero, Ampere, TVS, Lohia have high-powered electric 2-wheelers in the pipeline. Numerous start-ups focusing on

India imports 90 percent of its oil, this amounts to INR 40 lakh Cr in oil imports for the

better performing vehicles are also emerging and will begin sales in 2018, such as Ather,

automotive industry.

Tork and Emflux. However, most of these manufacturers will continue to import electronic



components.

Scenario where India Meets its 2030 Ambitions: Meeting the government’s 2030 goals

will require at least 3,500 GWh of batteries, amounting to a wholesale value of USD 300 Billion, which translates to approximately INR 20 lakh Cr. Indian manufacturers can capture

3-Wheelers: E-rickshaws are likely to be the fastest growing segment – OEMs like

25 to 40 percent of the value of this market if they assemble packs domestically. Thus, cell

Mahindra, Kinetic Green and Autolite have already launched models or will be launching

imports would total INR 12-15 lakh Cr. Petrol and diesel imports are expected to reduce to

models in 2018, which will increase enforcement of standards and registration, creating

INR 17 lakh Cr, creating a savings opportunity of INR 8 lakh Cr.



a powerful market driver. E-Auto sales are also expected to grow through the entry of OEMs like Bajaj and TVS, though they will still account for a relatively smaller share of the overall electric 3-wheeler category. Demand aggregation through public procurement and battery swapping is expected to play an important role in early adoption.

EVs are an inevitable disruption that is changing the way we commute globally. Developing an aggressive strategy for EV adoption in India and further ensuring a well-executed implementation, is both a challenge and an imperative for the government. The sheer geography and diversity of this country will present problems that require well thought

 Buses: Major OEMs like Ashok Leyland, Tata and BYD, will continue to pilot and test in

through solutions, which are not yet visible on the ground.

the coming years. Battery swapping will reduce upfront cost and spur greater procurement from EESL and STUs. However, ramp-up is likely to be slower than 3-wheelers.

In the long-run, innate economic and social attractiveness will make an EV boom in India inevitable. The continued fall in Lithium-ion batteries will drastically lower upfront costs.

Improvement in battery technology will lead to affordable and higher range EVs. Private investment in infrastructure will likely be a function of demand driven by the above. To remain cost-competitive and enable faster scale up, EV OEMs will increase domestic sourcing.

The target set by the government is ambitious and expected to be missed due to the industry and the consumer not being ready to adopt rapidly, given the relative economics of EV vs. ICE becoming favourable only beyond FY23. Although we project a 6-fold growth in EVs from FY17, this will still not be enough to meet the government’s target of 100% EV sales by 2030. Our projections suggest that EV penetration will reach a level of 1.82% by FY23, partly due to a low penetration of 0.60% in the 2-wheeler segment. Even if EVs grew at a CAGR of 50% from FY23 to FY30, they would still only reach a penetration of ~ 20% by FY30.

3. If the government’s 2030 objectives are met, India could save INR 8 lakh Cr (a 20% saving relative to a BAU scenario) in imports of petrol and diesel for the automotive industry over the period, after considering some level of domestic manufacturing of batteries. Thus, shifting to EVs will not necessarily reduce our import dependency. However, the impact on the environment will be significant. There could be two possible scenarios: a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, where the dependency continues to be on fossil fuels for the automotive industry, or a scenario where the nation meets its 2030 EV goals.

 BAU Scenario: In the BAU scenario, India would need more than 1.6 Billion MT of petrol

Credits: Avalon Consulting

and diesel to fuel its automotive industry from 2017-30. At a crude-oil price estimate of USD 52/ barrel, this would amount to a value of USD 670 Billion or INR 44 lakh Cr. If

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E-Mobility+• December 2018 24 E-Mobility+ • December 2018 24

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