Builders Outlook 2015 issue10

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Builders Outlook

www.elpasobuilders.com

National, State & Local Building Industry News 2015: Issue 10

2016: Housing Recovery to pick up steam amid challenges

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teady employment and economic growth, pent-up demand, affordable home prices and attractive mortgage rates will keep the housing market on a gradual upward trend in 2016. However, persistent headwinds related to shortages and availability of lots and labor, along with rising materials prices are impeding a more robust recovery, according to economists who participated in a National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Fall Construction ForecastWebinar. “This recovery is all about jobs,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “If people can get good jobs that pay decent incomes, the housing market will continue to move forward.” The good news, Crowe added, is that total U.S. employment of 142 million is now well above the previous peak of 138 million that occurred in 2008. The one caveat is that job growth has been concentrated heavily in the service sector, which tends to pay lower wages than goods producing jobs. Meanwhile, home equity has nearly doubled since 2011 and now stands at $12.5 trillion. “The single biggest asset in most people’s portfolio is the home they own,” said Crowe. “That’s important because the primary purchasers of new homes are the sellers of existing homes. The more equity

Fall Home and Garden Show attracts thousands

The annual Fall Home and Garden show brought thousands of people into the Judson Williams Convention Center as the show kicked off October 9. The throngs of people were greeted by a very nicely presented show compliments of the producer Show Technology out of San Antonio. The show featured a spectacular showcase home by new builder member Metro Homes. The design of the display was made to be partially constructed off site in order to meet the time lines established for the show. “I have to tell you that even with that additional time we really hustled to make sure we had a great product to show,” said Fernando Torres of CTU Metro Homes. Beautiful and elegantly staged the house became the favorite of the show winning Best of Show for the efforts. “We are excited to be able to show off our models to the public and to the real estate agents because we’re new to the market and we think we have a very good product to offer the consumer,” Torres continued.

they have, the more comfortable they feel about purchasing a new home.” And while mortgage interest rates are expected to rise over the near-term, averaging 4.5 percent in 2016 and 5.5 percent in 2017, Crowe said this is not expected to have an impact on the housing recovery. “As the economy gets better, job and wage growth should keep pace. So even though mortgage rates will rise, they will still be low by historical standards and very affordable.”

Supply Headwinds Crowe noted several factors that are hindering a more robust recovery. Citing an NAHB survey of its members, 13 percent of builders reported the cost and availability of labor was a significant problem in 2011 and that concern jumped to 61 percent in 2014. About one-fifth of builders shared the No doubt that the home brought together ideas that really made the showcase home that much more interesting. The process of actually piecing the walls together, setting up the floor and the all that goes on a wall or in the ceiling is not something for the faint hearted. “We were asked by Habitat for Humanity to donate what we could from this build, and I’m proud that we could,” Torres told the Outlook. The rest of the showcase was quickly taken to a lot waiting for some of the frame and other parts that could be used so to not go to waste. Overall a very beautiful green showcase home that will continue to give for years to come. The Fall Home and Garden was the only show of its kind this year since the civic center was taken over for the Men’s Bowling Championship (ABC). The civic center turned into a large bowling alley complete with state of the art lanes. “We run into situations like this when the civic center or halls we use are the only ones that can fit our shows,” said Tommy Mantini of Show Technology. “We have to be flexible but then again I know that this year we would have pent up demand and it showed during this event.” What impressed many was the carpeted aisles and the amount of room to comfortably move around. “I thought this was one of the nicest shows we’ve had in

same concerns regarding lots in 2011 and that ratio shot up to 58 percent in 2014. Concerns over building materials stood at 58 percent among builders in 2014, up from 33 percent in 2011.

some time,” said Associates Chairman Sam Shallenberger. “We had new displays and exhibitors and that was a nice thing to have.” The presenting attraction was the Wall Wizard, Brian Santos who did several demonstrations during the three day event. “I really love coming to El Paso and seeing so many folks for the first time,” Brian told the Outlook. “The El Paso Association of Builders has helped me get other gigs with other associations and I’m grateful for the recommendation,” he continued. Santos, who has authored several “how to” books and is an inventor and innovator for several companies including Home Depot. “My relationship with Rubber Maid and Home Depot and Lowes is really a great thing to

Single-Family Continues to Post Gains Turning to the forecast, NAHB is projecting 719,000 single-family starts in 2015, up 11 percent from the 647,000 units produced last year. Single-family production is projected to increase an additional 27 percent in 2016 to 914,000 units. On the multifamily side, production ran at 354,000 units last year, slightly above the 331,000 level that is considered a normal level of production. Multifamily starts are expected to rise 9 percent to 387,000 units this year and post a modest 3 percent decline to 378,000 units in 2016. Residential remodeling activity is forecasted to increase 6.8 percent in 2015 over last year and rise an additional 6.1 percent in 2016. Continued Page 6

bring to the consumer because I know what’s hot in the world of walls,” Santos said. Our sincere thanks to CTU Metro Homes and all the suppliers and the staff of David Acosta Real Estate. We also owe a debt of gratitude to the exhibitors who filled the civic center with good products and lots of things for the visitor to see. Our Spring Home and Garden Show is on for March 11-13, 2016. Don’t miss this opportunity to reach potential customers. Visit Show Technology today at www.showtechnology.com to get information on the Spring show. See More Photos Page 8


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Builders Outlook 2015 issue10 by Ted Escobedo - Issuu