Special Feature

SEISMIC TESTING

BY TOM FRANCISKOVICH

Early one morning this summer, the fog was hanging around and the seas were calm, so I decided to take a cruise around Avila Bay on my stand-up paddleboard. Far off in the distance, I would guess it was about a halfmile or so, I spotted a pair of humpback whales breaching the surface, spraying plumes of water vapor into the air, lifting their massive tails out and then back in. This continued for a while as they kept a steady pace, swimming toward the rock jetty at Port San Luis. I started paddling out for a closer look and, after a while, I was within about 100 yards of them. As I stood there marveling at how a 40-ton animal could be so graceful, I was mostly thinking about how lucky we were to live in such an amazing place that we could hang out with whales before breakfast. I continued to take it all in when I realized that it had been a while since my new friends had surfaced. I wondered where they would pop up next. As I scanned the horizon thinking they may now be out of range, a wall of gray barnacle-speckled mass rose out of the water ten feet in front of me and seemed to eclipse the sun. My knees buckled, my stomach dropped, and my heart pounded. The pair exhaled and gracefully disappeared, swimming directly below my board; the shifting water seemed to pull me along with them. It was one of the most unique and incredible experiences of my life. And, it got me thinking… Despite much initial controversy, since construction started in 1968 Diablo Canyon has been a good neighbor. The nuclear power plant has generated mostly carbon-less electricity, provided a huge amount of property tax, employed friends and family, sponsored local sports teams, and on and on. It would be fair to say that a lot of goodwill has been created between Diablo Canyon and the community since its inception. But, perceptions began to change on March 11th of last year when a massive earthquake erupted off the coast of Japan. The resulting tsunami with its surging seawater, as high as 130 feet in some cases, sped toward Japanese nuclear reactors, which had been strategically built on its coastline to use the cold ocean water to cool their cores. Three reactors suffered meltdowns and at least three experienced explosions. In the days that followed uncertainty reigned and it was not inconceivable that Japan, as we knew it, could have disappeared under a mushroom cloud. The aftermath caused much handwringing and introspection here as policymakers turned their attention inward to America’s aging nuclear infrastructure, and at the top of the list was Diablo Canyon, one of two California reactors, which is perched atop the Hosgri fault (this was discovered after it was built). Later, in 2008, a second active fault was found running along the shoreline. Considering what happened in Japan, it would be logical to want to know more about the risks presented by these faults. It would make sense then to employ whatever means necessary to attempt to predict the likelihood that those faults would generate an earthquake. So, AB 42, a bill sponsored by San Luis Obispobased State Senator, Sam Blakeslee, which requires PG&E to conduct seismic testing, became law. PG&E has since sought permits to begin testing along a 90-mile stretch of water off the shores of Diablo Canyon beginning next month. Originally developed in the 1920’s, seismic testing has been used primarily for two purposes: first, to locate oil and natural gas reserves for which it has proved incredibly effective; and, second, to analyze and map fault lines (some claim it is also able to actually predict earthquakes, but that has proved dubious at best). Although the sophistication of the equipment used has evolved considerably, it is still based on the same relatively basic science: create massive shockwaves capable of reaching miles below the seafloor and then use sensitive listening equipment to receive the reverberations of those sound waves as they bounce back. The result is a three-dimensional map of whatever is below the Earth’s crust. While basic in its science, the resulting aftermath has been much more complicated and it seems that everywhere seismic testing has gone controversy has followed. It has been argued, although unsuccessfully, that by agitating and blasting a known active fault line with powerful shock waves, it may artificially trigger an earthquake. By definition, a fault is a point where two tectonic plates intersect; they exist under tremendous force that is constantly seeking release—any disturbance to this homeostasis could potentially cause a sudden and dramatic slippage or shift, also known as an earthquake.

• • • But, it is not earthquakes that local opposition groups such as Stop the Diablo Canyon Seismic Testing has been worrying about. Their focus has been on the damage that may be done to the marine wildlife as a 240-foot ship tows a quarter-mile array of eighteen 250 decibel “air cannons” that send out blasts every twenty seconds, twenty-four hours a day for 42 days straight. How loud is 250 decibels? To put it in perspective, each unit of measurement is ten times louder than the last one, so 2 decibels is louder by a factor of ten than 1 decibel and so on. A gunshot measures 133 decibels, 164 decibels is like being inside a jet engine, eardrums burst at 195 decibels, at 202 decibels the sound waves become lethal to humans, and a nuclear bomb generates 278 decibels. Would opponents then be correct by asserting that PG&E would be effectively carpet bombing a sensitive marine habitat that includes the protected Point Buchon State Marine Reserve with sound waves strong enough to instantly kill a human being and is approaching the energy blast created by a nuclear warhead? The size and scope of the proposed seismic test is unprecedented and would, at least according to California Fish and Game Commissioner, Richard Rogers, “cleanse the Point Buchon State Marine Reserve of all living marine organisms.” An article earlier this year in Scientific American, attempts to answer the question as to why a massive number of dolphins (at the time of its publication the count stood at 2,800) had washed up dead on remote Peruvian beaches. The article quoted local veterinarian, Carlos Yaipén, who is also the founder of Lima-based Scientific Organization for the Conservation of Aquatic Animals (ORCA). The article stated that “All of the 20 or so animals Yaipén has examined showed middle-ear hemorrhage

Their focus has been on the damage that may be done to the marine wildlife as a 240-foot ship tows a quarter-mile ‘‘ array of eighteen 250 decibel “air cannons” that send out blasts every twenty seconds, twenty-four hours a day for 42 days straight.

and fracture of the ear’s periotic bone, lung lesions and bubbles in the blood. To him, that suggests that a major acoustic impact caused injury, but not immediate death.” Although the article goes on to offer different hypotheses for the dolphin die-off, including toxins that may have been present in the water, only one seems plausible in that it is consistent with the injuries sustained: seismic testing by a petroleum company believed to be searching for oil deposits in the area.

Anticipating the effect testing may have on the local fishing industry, PG&E has offered $1.2 million as compensation for the loss of revenues during November and December. Giovanni DeGarimore, who owns and operates Giovanni’s Fish Market & Galley in Morro Bay says, “Initially, when I first heard about this, I took a somewhat self-centered position and it all came down to how much will PG&E be compensating me? But, the more educated I became on the subject the more I realized how much bigger this is than me. And, I’m not a political activist type, but at some point you have to stand up for what you believe in.” In many ways DeGarimore is at the center of Morro Bay’s fishing industry. In addition to selling fish in his market, he is also in the business of unloading the daily catch from commercial fishing vessels as well as selling fuel to the fisherman who almost never lack an opinion. “It’s been really refreshing to see the fisherman go from saying, ‘How much can we get from PG&E’ to saying, ‘Hey, we don’t want this it all, I don’t care how much you pay us. This is bad; really, really bad.’ We’re not just looking at total devastation of the mammals, but also the fish and who knows if it ever comes back. And all this for what? So, PG&E can get a new map to renew their license for another 20 years?” It’s worth noting that the cost of seismic testing is estimated at $64 million, which PG&E will be charging to their customers—you and me—in order to cover the expense. While policymakers’ intentions appear to be noble—looking after the safety of Central Coast residents—it is not entirely clear how the results of seismic testing would achieve that goal. Just how do highly detailed threedimensional maps of the area’s spider web of fault lines change anything currently taking place at Diablo Canyon? There is nothing that can be done to, say, add steel bracing to shore up a fault line here or fill in with cement a fault line over there. Eventually they will produce an earthquake. That’s just what faults do and there is nothing that can be done to stop it. And it is unclear how the information we gain by doing the testing, which may or may not—depending on who you ask—come at a great cost to our sensitive local marine ecosystem, would mitigate the disaster resulting from a massive earthquake. It would be one thing if seismic testing was able to forecast earthquakes. For example, if by doing this we knew that next summer the Hosgri fault would produce somewhere between a 7.0 and 8.0 earthquake, then that would certainly change the equation, but predicting earthquakes with seismic testing has long been debunked—it just doesn’t work. Any way we slice it, for better or worse, we are left with an aging nuclear power plant resting upon a hotbed of seismic activity perched on the side of an ocean cliff. Besides, no amount of retrofitting, it seems, could have prevented the Japanese meltdowns resulting from what turned out to be a 9.0 earthquake. Realizing this reality, Japan last month announced that it is phasing out all 50 of its nuclear reactors by 2040. Although seismic testing is on schedule to begin next month, there is still one big hurdle to clear: the California Coastal Commission. The group will be hearing the issue in Oceanside on October 10th and it appears they may be leaning toward approving the project, as they gave PG&E the green light to install six seismic monitoring devices on the seafloor near Diablo Canyon in April.

Maritime lore is rich with a history of harrowing shipwrecks and sailor survival stories. Many of them feature a friendly sea mammal, typically a dolphin or a whale showing the way to safety or providing a lift to someone in dire need, often just before death. In those instances sailors describe a unique bond and a method of communicating between species that is difficult to comprehend, and probably impossible unless it is within the context of some extreme emergency or crises. After briefly interacting with the humpbacks myself this summer, I can begin to see how there may not be as much separating us as we may believe. Although I likely encountered the whales early on in their visit to Avila Beach—probably just as they entered the bay—so many of us were able to have our breath taken away by these majestic creatures who paid us a very special visit this summer. But, maybe, they were here for a reason. Maybe they were trying to tell us something. SLO LIFE

© Reuters

Dolphin carcasses washed ashore along a remote Peruvian beach.

Want to know how you can weigh in on seismic testing? Contact the California Coastal Commission before their meeting on October 10th to voice your opinion.

California Coastal Commission Energy & Ocean Resources Cassidy Teufel 45 Fremont Street, Suite 2000 San Francisco CA 94105 (415) 904-5502 (415) 904-5400 fax c.teufel@coastal.ca.gov