2016 Q3 Condo Update

Q3 2016 CONDO UPDATE

PAUL HWANG | RANKED #1 IN SOUTH BEACH | 415.216.8746

Dear Neighbors, As we face an uncertain Presidential Election and higher variance in the global equity markets, a more conservative outlook on real estate naturally emerges. Year over Year data reflects this conservative sentiment in an increase of +87% for Q3 Average Days on the Market in South Beach and a 33% decrease in Q3 Sales Activity in Yerba Buena.

It’s logical to come to the conclusion that these are forward indicators of a return to a more normal market.

We must remember the super heated foreign money and tech driven markets of the past few years were actually an anomaly and not the norm. The naive would capriciously yell “crash coming,� the more experienced would suggest parity or equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

I would estimate that in the next 18 months a 15-20% probability of an event, global or domestic, that would trigger an ultraconservative environment. I advise sellers to reexamine their time horizons for holding property. If within 18 months, then I advise to sell now.

Best Regards, Paul Hwang | Principal Broker Ranked #1 in South Beach 415.216.8746 This document has been prepared by Skybox Realty for advertising and general information only.

Skybox Realty makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Skybox Realty excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.

2016 Q3 SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVITY

ABSORPTION & INVENTORY Absorption Rate = Number of Units Sold / 3 Months (July - Sept 2016) Months of Inventory = Number of Active Listings / Absorption Rate District 9 District 8 District 6 District 5

WESTERN ADDITION 3.7 Units 31% QOQ 1.1 Months

CIVIC C 6.7 Unit 2.7 Mon

ALAMO SQUARE 2 Units 14% QOQ 4 Months HAYES VALLEY 11.3 Units 47% Q 2.3 Months DUBOCE 101% QOQ 2.7 Units .75 Months

MISSION DOLOR 55 6 Units 1 Month EUREKA VALLEY 9% QOQ 10.3 Units 3 Months

NOE VALLEY 18.3 Units 1.2 Months

3.5% QOQ

NOB HILL 7.7 Units 3 Months

28% QOQ

FINANCIAL DISTRICT 0% QOQ 2 Units 6 Months

DOWNTOWN 4.3 Units 32% QOQ 3.2 Months TENDERLOIN .67 Units 0% QOQ 3 Months

YERBA BUENA 9.9% QOQ 6.7 Units 5.4 Months

SOUTH BEACH 5.7% QOQ 18.7 Units 3.2 Months

CENTER ts 23% QOQ nths SOMA 14.7 Units 19% QOQ 2.2 Months

QOQ

MISSION BAY 60% QOQ 6 Units 4.8 Months

RES 5% QOQ INNER MISSION 14.7 Units 4.8% QOQ 1.4 Months

POTRERO 9.3 Units 1.7 Months

36% QOQ

DOGPATCH 4.3 Units 28% QOQ 1.62 Months

MILLENNIUM TOWER | 16 - 17 181 FREMONT | 30 - 31 THE INFINITY | 10 - 11

LUMINA | 24 - 25

THE METROPOLITAN | 12 - 13 THE WATERMARK | 20 - 21 THE HARRISON | 26 - 27 ONE RINCON HILL | 14 - 15 ONE HAWTHORNE | 18 - 19

72 TOWNSEND | 28 - 29

SOUTH BEACH

2016 Q3 FAST FACTS # SOLD

AVG SALE PRICE

AVG $/SF

AVG DOM

59 $1,215,310 $1,187 56 13% QOQ

14% QOQ

2.1% QOQ

14% QOQ

8% YOY

1.8% YOY

6.1% YOY

87% YOY

CUMULATIVE $/SF DATA FOR PAST YEAR $1300 $1200 $1100 $1000

2015 Q4

2016 Q1

QOQ = Quarter Over Quarter

2016 Q2

2016 Q3

YOY = Year Over Year

9

YERBA BUENA

2016 Q3 FAST FACTS # SOLD

AVG SALE PRICE

20

AVG $/SF

AVG DOM

$898,150 $1,194 49

9.1% QOQ

51% QOQ

16% QOQ

40% QOQ

33% YOY

28% YOY

1.4% YOY

2% YOY

CUMULATIVE $/SF DATA FOR PAST YEAR $1400 $1300 $1200 2015 Q4

2016 Q1

2016 Q2

2016 Q3

$1100

All Data From SFARMLS

301 / 333 MAIN | 318 / 338 SPEAR

THE INFINITY SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING D37E | $2,700,000 (2BR) $2015/sf

D31A | $2,590,000 (2BR) $2033/sf D30H | $1,799,000 (2BR) $1360/sf D28F | $1,799,000 (2BR) $1365/sf

D20C | $1,495,000 (1BR) $1975/sf

D15H | $1,495,000 (2BR) $1130/sf

D10G | $924,800 (1BR) $1150/sf D8B | $1,450,000 (2BR) $1095/sf

A8G | $949,000 (1BR) $1189/sf A7F | $1,788,000 (3BR) $1076/sf

D5B | $1,470,000 (2BR) $1110/sf D3F | $1,199,000 (1BR) $1318/sf

A4K | $949,000 (1BR) $1141/sf

# SOLD

AVG $/SF

7

AVG SALE PRICE

$1,373 $1,728,643

AVG DOM

59

30% QOQ

14% QOQ

19% QOQ

7.2% QOQ

YOY

19% YOY

1.5% YOY

26% YOY

B37B | $7,995,000 (3BR) $2364/sf

B32E | $2,875,000 (3BR) $1712/sf B32A | $2,199,000 (2BR) $1734/sf

B24C | $1,350,000 (1BR) $1669/sf B23B | $1,995,000 (2BR) $1515/sf

B11A | $1,415,000 (2BR) $1217/sf B9C | $895,000 (1BR) $1119/sf

C5L | $892,500 (2BR) $1059/sf

B5C | $1,874,888 (2BR) $1070/sf All Data From SFARMLS

C2B | $1,149,000 (1BR) $954/sf

11

333 / 355 1ST

THE METROPOLITAN SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

N1703 | $849,000 (1BR) $1191/sf N1606 | $679,000 (0BR) $1342/sf

N1001 | $1,128,000 (2BR) $1175/sf N706 | $599,000 (0BR) $1184/sf N605 | $825,000 (1BR) $1164/sf

N1701 | $1,199,000 (2

# SOLD

3

AVG $/SF

AVG SALE PRICE

$1,249 $1,043,333

AVG DOM

57

40% QOQ

4.3% QOQ

29% QOQ

78% QOQ

43% YOY

2.5% YOY

10% YOY

43% YOY

2BR) $1252/sf

S2306 | $899,000 (1BR) $1230/sf

S1807 | $1,511,000 (2BR) $1296/sf

S1104 | $402,980 (2BR) bmr

S301 | $745,000 (1BR) $1131/sf S303 | $720,000 (1BR) $1268/sf S204 | $1,049,000 (2BR) $1089/sf All Data From SFARMLS

13

425 1ST | 489 HARRISON

ONE RINCON HILL SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING # SOLD

5

AVG $/SF

AVG SALE PRICE

$1,553 $1,722,000

AVG DOM

110

250% QOQ

5.5% QOQ

4.1% QOQ

233% QOQ

YOY

6% YOY

14% YOY

156% YOY

1607 | $1,149,000 (1BR) $1403

3/sf

15 6002 | $3,149,000 (3BR) $2064/sf 5803 | $3,595,000 (3BR) $2144/sf 5701 | $3,588,000 (2BR) $2189/sf

5106 | $2,300,000 (2BR) $1814/sf

4605 | $983,000 (1BR) $1385/sf 4504 | $899,000 (1BR) $1486/sf 4402 | $2,200,000 (2BR) $1681/sf

3408 | $1,215,000 (1BR) $1609/sf

2708 | $1,135,000 (1BR) $1503/sf

2205 | $915,000 (1BR) $1289/sf 1903 | $1,699,000 (2BR) $1329/sf 1707 | $1,159,000 (1BR) $1415/sf 1601 | $1,150,000 (2BR) $1374/sf 1402 | $1,825,000 (2BR) $1394/sf 1306 | $1,400,000 (2BR) $1131/sf

902 | $1,498,000 (2BR) $1144/sf

All Data From SFARMLS

301 MISSION

MILLENNIUM SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

604 | $2,199,000 (2BR) $1481/sf 502 | $3,600,000 (2BR) $2024/sf 405 | $2,195,000 (2BR) $1265/sf

PHA | $8,995,000 (2BR) $3324/sf

# SOLD

2

AVG $/SF

AVG SALE PRICE

$1,518 $1,917,500

AVG DOM

65

71% QOQ

6.5% QOQ

38% QOQ

54% QOQ

YOY

1.5% YOY

4.6% YOY

38% YOY

41E | $2,710,000 (2BR) $1581/sf

34E | $2,595,000 (2BR) $1514/sf

24H | $1,125,000 (2BR) $1455/sf

17A | $1,499,000 (2BR) $1014/sf

All Data From SFARMLS 4E | $1,499,000 (2BR) $1320/sf

17

1 HAWTHORNE LANE

ONE HAWTHORNE SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

25D | $3,549,000 (2BR) $1814/s

sf

# SOLD

0

AVG $/SF

$----

AVG SALE PRICE

$----

AVG DOM

----

100% QOQ

QOQ

QOQ

QOQ

100% YOY

YOY

YOY

YOY

25C | $3,450,000 (3BR) $1729/sf

19E | $1,795,000 (2BR) $1444/sf

12A | $1,049,000 (1BR) $1154/sf

7G | $999,000 (1BR) $1158/sf 6C | $899,000 (1BR) $1056/sf

2E | $875,000 (1BR) $1057/sf

19

501 BEALE

WATERMARK SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

# SOLD

0

AVG $/SF

$----

AVG SALE PRICE

$----

AVG DOM

----

100% QOQ

QOQ

QOQ

QOQ

100% YOY

YOY

YOY

YOY

18A | $3,498,000 (3BR) $2381/sf

11A | $1,889,000 (2BR) $1628/sf 10D | $1,779,000 (2BR) $1413/sf

All Data From SFARMLS

21

SOUTH BEACH & YERBA BUENA CONDOS

SOLD UNITS IN Q3 2016 Address

BR

BA

Status

Status Date

355 1st 303

1

1

Sold

7.7.16

333 Main 5L

2

1

Sold

7.28.16

355 1st 2306

1

1

Sold

8.22.16

318 Spear 4K

1

1

Sold

9.19.16

301 Mission 24H

1

1

Sold

7.27.16

425 1st 2708

1

1

Sold

7.21.16

425 1st 1601

1

1

Sold

8.5.16

301 Main 11A

2

2

Sold

9.19.16

338 Spear 5B

2

2

Sold

8.8.16

355 1st 1807

2

2

Sold

7.18.16

338 Spear 30H

2

2

Sold

9.9.16

425 1st 1402

2

2

Sold

8.16.16

425 1st 4402

2

2

Sold

8.15.16

425 1st 5106

2

2

Sold

7.25.16

338 Spear 37E

2

2

Sold

7.14.16

301 Mission 41E

2

2

Sold

7.20.16

301 Main 32E

3

2.5

Sold

8.24.16

* Only showing sold units in buildings featured in this book. Does not include new construction.

23

DOM

SF

List Price

Sold Price

$/SF

18

568

$729,000

$720,000

$1268

89

843

$949,000

$892,500

$1059

90

731

$949,000

$899,000

$1230

2

832

$959,000

$949,000

$1141

84

773

$1,078,000

$1,125,000

$1455

151

755

$1,269,000

$1,135,000

$1503

20

837

$1,139,000

$1,150,000

$1374

72

1163

$1,495,000

$1,415,000

$1217

38

1324

$1,495,000

$1,470,000

$1110

63

----

$1,595,000

$1,511,000

----

69

1323

$1,999,999

$1,799,000

$1360

148

1309

$2,095,000

$1,825,000

$1394

178

1309

$2,950,000

$2,200,000

$1681

53

1268

$2,495,000

$2,300,000

$1814

1

1340

$2,750,000

$2,700,000

$2015

45

1714

$2,695,000

$2,710,000

$1581

142

1679

$3,195,000

$2,875,000

$1712

All Data From SFARMLS

318 / 338 MAIN | 333 BEALE | 201 FOLSOM

LUMINA SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

B16C | $2,125,000 (2BR)

B12D | $1,180,000 (1BR)

B6F | $1,355,000 (2BR) B4B | $1,415,000 (2BR)

# UNITS

656

# SOLD / IN CONTRACT

2BR LIST PRICE

456+

1BR LIST PRICE

$975,000+

3BR LIST PRICE

$1,355,000+ $3,365,000+

D36A | $8,895,000 (3BR)

D15B | $1,950,000 (2BR)

D3D | $895,000 (1BR)

25

401 HARRISON

THE HARRISON SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING # UNITS

298

# CLOSED / IN CONTRACT

2BR LIST PRICE

44+

$1,250,000+

1BR LIST PRICE

$786,000+

3BR LIST PRICE

$3,750,000+

6F | $1,250,000 (2BR) $1008/sf 5D | $786,000 (1BR) $1297/sf

27

33C | $2,468,000 (2BR) $1850/sf

18D | $1,840,000 (2BR) $1419/sf 16F | $1,800,000 (2BR) $1452/sf 14G | $1,217,000 (1BR) $1486/sf 12A | $1,028,000 (1BR) $1224/sf

6B | 774,000 (1BR) $1040/sf 5F | $1,200,000 (2BR) $968/sf 4C | $1,299,000 (2BR) $1008/sf

Only showing listings marketed on SFARMLS

72 TOWNSEND

72 TOWNSEND SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

PH1 | $3,449,000 (3BR) $1982/sf

702 | $1,699,000 (1BR) $1402/sf

702 | $1,699,000 (1BR) $1402/sf 610 | $1,429,000 (2BR) $1172/sf 509 | $1,329,000 (2BR) $1170/sf

# UNITS

67

# SOLD / IN CONTRACT

51+

2BR LIST PRICE

1BR LIST PRICE

$955,000+

3BR LIST PRICE

$1,426,000+ $3,449,000+

803 | $1,175,000 (1BR) $1497/sf 703 | $1,075,000 (1BR) $1369/sf

707 | $1,100,999 (1BR) $1293/sf

607 | $1,045,000 (1BR) $1228/sf

608 | $1,225,000 (1BR) $1219/sf

Only showing listings marketed on SFARMLS

29

181 FREMONT

181 FREMONT SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING

# UNITS

67

# IN CONTRACT

10+

2BR LIST PRICE

$3,000,000+

3BR LIST PRICE

$6,500,000+

66A | $8,500,000 (3BR) $3536/sf

60C | $3,245,000 (2BR) $2571/sf

55C | $3,580,000 (1BR) $2231/sf

Only showing listings marketed on SFARMLS

31

SOUTH BEACH CONDO ACTIVITY

CONDO SALES 120

NUMBER OF SOLD CONDOS

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Q1 ‘13

Q2 ‘13

Q3 ‘13

Q4 ‘13

Q1 ‘14

Q2 ‘14

Q3 ‘14

4

33

Q4 ‘14

Q1 ‘15

Q2 ‘15

Q3‘15

Q4 ‘15

Q1 ‘16

Q2 ‘16

Q3 ‘16

All Data From SFARMLS

SOUTH BEACH CONDO ACTIVITY

AVERAGE MARKET TIME 60

AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET

55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Q1 ‘13

Q2 ‘13

Q3 ‘13

Q4 ‘13

Q1 ‘14

Q2 ‘14

Q3 ‘1

14

35

Q4 ‘14

Q1 ‘15

Q2 ‘15

Q3‘15

Q4 ‘15

Q1 ‘16

Q2 ‘16

Q3 ‘16

All Data From SFARMLS

PAUL HWANG

bre 01371169 | 415.216.8746 RANKED #1 IN SOUTH BEACH paul@skyboxrealty.com

流利國語