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New York City Market Update First Quarter 2017 MANHATTAN BROKERAGES Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | t: 212.431.2440 East Side | 38 East 61st Street | t: 212.606.7660 West Side | 2244 Broadway | t: 212.579.9300

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MANHATTAN MARKET | OVERVIEW CONDOS & CO-OPS OVERVIEW Coming off an election season filled with anxiety and buyers ending 2016 seemingly unreceptive to unrealistic pricing, the First Quarter of 2017 appeared to unleash pent-up demand with a re-emergence of buyer confidence in the market. Buyers this quarter were encouraged by a rising stock market, hopes for strong economic growth, and more rational pricing on the part of sellers, as evidenced by a 4% decline in the overall median sales price. The First Quarter of 2017 saw the average sale price in Manhattan overall trend upward to $2,167,000, a 3% gain over the prior year. The number of sales jumped 9% in the First Quarter of the year to 2,945 from 2,711 in the last quarter of 2016 but the number of closed sales declined 5% from the prior year. The recent period of double-digit gains in sale prices has abated, making way for relative stability in the market place. The under $3mil market made up 83% of all sales activity and this segment had 4% fewer sales, a 3% drop in the average sale price and 4% decline in the median sale price. However, both the $3mil to $10mil category and the over $10mil category posted gains in the average and median sale prices.

UNDER $3M

MANHATTAN OVERVIEW

$3M TO $10M

1Q:16

2,440

2,534

-4%

OVER $10M 1Q:16

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

74

8%

2,945

3,101

-5%

Average Days on Market

96

82

17.1%

Listing Discount

3%

5%

-40%

1Q:17 425

1Q:16

% CHANGE

1Q:17

493

-14%

80

TOTAL % CHANGE

Number of Closed Sales

1Q:17

% CHANGE

Average Sales Price

$1,123,000

$1,154,000

-3%

$5,088,000

$4,918,000

3%

$18,237,000

$16,673,000

9%

$2,167,000 $2,113,000

3%

Median Sales Price

$900,000

$935,000

-4%

$4,500,000

$4,298,000

5%

$15,020,000

$14,458,000

4%

$1,100,000 $1,150,000

-4%

Listing Inventory

Further detail on page 3

5,725

5,465

5%

5.5

4.4

25%

Months of Supply

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE The average sale price of all recorded Manhattan unit sales was $2,167,000, a 3% gain over prior year and 6% higher than the prior quarter. The median sale price of $1,100,000 was a 5% gain over the prior quarter but 4% less than the prior year. The median sale price for all of Manhattan has registered over $1mil for the seventh consecutive quarter.

$2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Average Sales Price

7000

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Median Sales Price

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY

6000

Buyers are seeing tighter inventory this quarter. After a period of resisting record-high prices, buyers have returned to the market as sellers have adjusted their expectations and sale prices. The number of sales jumped 9% in the first quarter of the year to 2,945 from 2,711 in the last quarter of 2016. However, the number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2017 has declined 5% from the prior year. Inventory is at 5,725 listings which is higher than the 5,465 listings in the first quarter of 2016 but lower than the 5,963 listings in the last quarter of 2016. This level of inventory is still below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings.

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Q2:16

# of Closed Sales

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Inventory

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MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE CONDOS & CO-OPS

(based on 6 months of closed sales: 07/01/2016-12/31/2016)

The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at nearly 6 months, signifying a market in “equilibrium.� The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period. The lower price segments continue to experience shortages of inventory with $1mil at 2.7 months of supply and units under $2mil at 5.6 months of supply. The top two price tiers have absorption rates near one year, signifying an oversupply that has resulted in discounts and longer marketing time for the highest-valued properties. As the oversupply continues in the highest price brackets it is increasingly more difficult for sellers in the top price segments to remain inflexible in their price expectations.

Less than $1M $1M - $2M Active Listing Inventory

$2M - $4M

$4M - $6M

$6M - $10M $10M - $20M

$20M+

TOTAL

1,396

1,490

1,361

622

473

268

115

5,725

Average Closed Sales / Month

508

267

160

54

34

20

7

1,050

Months of Supply per Price Category

2.7

5.6

8.5

11.5

13.9

13.4

16.4

5.5

ABSORPTION RATE

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS 18.0

2%

16.0

5% 8%

24%

11%

26%

24%

< $1mil

14.0

$1mil - $2mil

12.0

> $2mil - $4mil

10.0

> $4mil - $6mil

8.0

>$6mil - $10mil

6.0

> $10mil < $20mil

4.0

$20mil+

2.0 0.0

Less than $1M - 2M $2M - $4M$4M - $6M $6M $10M $20M+ $1M $10M $20M Absorption Overall Absorption Rate

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Average Days on Market

84

73

77

82

88

84

91

96

Listing Discount

4%

4%

6%

5%

7%

6%

7%

3%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET 120

0.08 0.07

100

0.06 80

0.05

60 40

0.04

LISTING DISCOUNT

0.03

The percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price and dividing the result by the original listing price.

0.02 20

0.01

0

0 Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Av erage Day s on Market

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the days on market for every closed sale and dividing the total days by the number of closed sales.

Listing Discount

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THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKET CO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10M Over the first quarter of 2017 there were 96 ultra-luxury sales, 19% less than the prior year. However, this was a gain of 33% from the prior quarter. The average sale price in this market sector was $19,018,000, posting a 3% gain over the prior quarter and a 5% gain over the prior year. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $65.662mil for the 85th floor unit at 432 Park Avenue.

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

72

81

88

118

107

109

72

96

Average Sales Price

$19,367,000

$18,145,000

$19,600,000

$18,200,000

$17,200,000

$18,424,000

$18,527,000

$19,018,000

Highest Sales Price

$47,800,000

$37,940,000

$45,000,000

$44,833,000

$59,144,000

$86,090,000

$60,894,000

$65,662,000

Number of Closed Sales

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and AVERAGE SALES PRICE 140

$20,000,000

120

$19,500,000 $19,000,000

100

$18,500,000

80

$18,000,000 60

$17,500,000

40

$17,000,000

20 0

$16,500,000 Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

# of Closed Sales

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

$16,000,000

Av erage Sales Price

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MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPS First quarter 2017 co-op sales were down nominally by 2%. The average overall co-op price posted a decline of 6% to start at $1,216,000. In the under $3mil segment, the average sales price dropped 2% while the median sales price remained relatively unchanged with a 1% decline from the prior year. Closed sales remained relatively unchanged with a 1% decline compared to first quarter 2016. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3mil to $10 mil, the measures posted losses of 4% off the average sales price while the median sales price was nearly unchanged with 1% off the median sale price. In the top tier co-op price bracket $10mil and higher, there were 7 closed sales in both the first quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, leaving the number of closed sales flat. UNDER $3M

CO-OPS Number of Closed Sales

$3M TO $10M

OVER $10M

1Q:17

1Q:16

1,431

1,439

-1%

94

116

-19%

7

7

0%

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

1Q:17

TOTAL

% CHANGE

1Q:16

% CHANGE

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

1,532

1,562

-2%

Average Sales Price

$922,000 $937,000

-2%

$4,585,000

$4,768,000

-4%

$16,292,000

$16,966,000

-4%

Median Sales Price

$734,000

-1%

$3,975,000

$4,000,000

-1%

$15,200,000

$14,000,000

9%

$741,000

-2%

$780,000

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

2000

$1,200,000

1500

$1,000,000

1000

$600,000

$800,000 $400,000

500 0

$765,000

-6%

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES

2500

$1,216,000 $1,294,000

$200,000 $0

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Q2:16

# of Closed Sales

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15 Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Av erage Sales Price

Median Sales Price

CONDOS Overall condo closed sales decreased 8%. However, the average sale price and price per square foot continued to post gains. The average condo sale price rose 9% to $3,185,000; the average price per square foot gained 2% to $1,823; while the median sale price decreased 3% to $1,740,000. The under $3mil segment fell slightly in all measures with a 2% drop in average sale price; a nominal 1% drop in price per square foot and a 3% decrease in median sale price. For condo units over $10mil, the market measures were higher this quarter led by 13% rise in the average sale price. However, the driving factor for the higher prices continues to be due to high end deals procured in pre-construction phases from 2015 and are not representative of present weakness in the top tier of the market. UNDER $3M

CONDOS Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price

1Q:17

1Q:16

1,009

1,095

-8%

$1,400,000 $1,430,000

Average PPSF

$1,449

Median Sales Price

$3M TO $10M

% CHANGE

$1,463

$1,233,000 $1,277,000

-2% -1% -3%

1Q:17 331

1Q:16

1Q:17

377

-12%

$5,225,000 $4,965,000

$5,159

$5,065

$4,635,000 $4,425,000

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES

2000

OVER $10M

% CHANGE

TOTAL

1Q:16

% CHANGE

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

73

67

9%

1,413

1,539

-8%

5%

$18,838,000

$16,643,000

13%

$3,185,000

$2,924,000

9%

2%

$4,359

$4,134

5%

$1,823

$1,792

2%

5%

$14,978,000

$14,500,000

3%

$1,740,000

$1,795,000

-3%

$3,500,000

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$3,000,000

1500

$2,500,000 $2,000,000

1000

$1,500,000 $1,000,000

500

$500,000 0

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Q2:16

# of Closed Sales

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

$0

Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15 Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Av erage Sales Price

Median Sales Price

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NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN UPPER EAST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue This market area showed a decline in the number of closed sales for the condo and co-op sector. The average co-op sale price posted a 6% decline to $1,582,000 while the median sale price declined 9% from the prior year to $849,000. Condo average sale prices were up 5% to $2,730,000 from $2,604,000. The condo median sale price was virtually unchanged from the prior year.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

397

416

-5%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,582,000

$1,679,000

-6%

Median Sales Price

$849,000

$929,000

-9%

# Closed Sales

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

207

289

-28%

Average Sales Price

$2,730,000

$2,604,000

5%

Median Sales Price

$1,675,000

$1,700,000

-1%

UPPER WEST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside Drive The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 317, an increase of 2% from prior year. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,321,000, a 10% decline from the prior year. The condo sector posted gains in both the average sale price and the median sale price. The average condo sale price was $3,248,000 and the median sale price was $1,800,000.

CO-OPS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

317

311

2%

Average Sales Price

$1,321,000

$1,465,000

-10%

Median Sales Price

$860,000

$866,000

-1%

# Closed Sales

CONDOS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

163

174

-6%

Average Sales Price

$3,248,000

$2,368,000

37%

Median Sales Price

$1,800,000

$1,545,000

17%

# Closed Sales

MIDTOWN north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street The average co-op sale price in this market area increased 7% to $1,083,000 while the median co-op price remained relatively unchanged from the prior year. This market area had an average condo sale price of just $2,636,000 compared with $3,215,000 at the start of 2016. Lower average and median price statistics this period were due mostly in part to fewer closings at 432 Park Avenue.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

229

236

-3%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,083,000

$1,013,000

7%

Median Sales Price

$685,000

$690,000

-1%

# Closed Sales

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

322

365

-12%

Average Sales Price

$2,636,000

$3,215,000

-18%

Median Sales Price

$1,398,000

$1,840,000

-24%

UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side The average sales price of co-ops was higher by 3%, reaching $533,000. The median sale price increase was impressive with a 26% rise to $525,000. Market measures were significantly higher in the condo unit sector with a 13% gain in the average condo sales price and a 22% gain in the median condo sales price. The average condo unit price reached $805,000 with the median condo sale price reaching $698,000. Both the condo and co-op sectors saw a decrease in sales volume from the prior year.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

118

124

-5%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$533,000

$518,000

3%

Median Sales Price

$525,000

$418,000

26%

# Closed Sales

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

95

123

-23%

Average Sales Price

$805,000

$711,000

13%

Median Sales Price

$698,000

$570,000

22%

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NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN DOWNTOWN south of 34th Street through Tribeca The 447 co-op sales in the first quarter of 2017 left sales volume unchanged compared to the prior year. The co-op average sale price measure was down 10%, falling to $1,098,000 from $1,214,000. The median co-op sale price declined 7% ending this quarter at $783,000. In the condo sector, the number of closed sales went down 3% compared to the prior year. However, the average sales price was up 18% and the median sales price increased 7%.

CO-OPS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

447

447

0%

Average Sales Price

$1,098,000

$1,214,000

-10%

Median Sales Price

$783,000

$838,000

-7%

# Closed Sales

CONDOS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

471

487

-3%

Average Sales Price

$4,678,000

$3,969,000

18%

Median Sales Price

$2,982,000

$2,775,000

7%

# Closed Sales

FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITY There were 154 condo units closed in the first quarter of 2017, a 52% increase over the prior year. This was caused in part by a high volume of closings at 50 West Street. However, the average condominium price declined 19% to $1,543,000 from $1,907,000 in the first quarter of 2016. Co-op average sale price and median sale price both posted 26% gains.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

24

28

-13%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$902,000

$717,000

26%

Median Sales Price

$817,000

$650,000

26%

# Closed Sales

1Q:17

1Q:16

% CHANGE

154

101

52%

Average Sales Price

$1,543,000

$1,907,000

-19%

Median Sales Price

$1,250,000

$1,525,000

-18%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES 1200

$3,500,000

1000

$3,000,000 $3,000,000

$3,500,000

$2,500,000 $2,500,000

800

$2,000,000 $2,000,000 600

$1,500,000 $1,500,000

400

$1,000,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000

200

$0

$0

0

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q1:16

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Upper East Side

Upper West Side

Midtown

Uptown

Downtown

Fi Di / Battery Park City

Q2:15

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q3:15

Q4:15

Q4:15

Upper East Side Upper East Side Midtown Downtown Midtown

Downtown

Q1:16

Q1:16

Q2:16

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Q4:16

Upper West Side Upper West Side Uptown Financial District / Battery Park City Uptown

Q1:17

Financial District / Battery Park City

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MARKET COMPARISONS Comparing the first quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, both New York City and Los Angeles price per sq. ft. and increased 1.6% and 2.4% respectively year of year. San Francisco price per sq. ft. remained flat. Comparing first quarter of 2017 and fourth quarter of 2016 price per sq. ft. remained flat in New York City and Los Angeles while San Francisco saw a 2.2% gain.

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:15 New York City

Q1:16

Q2:16 San Francisco

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Los Angeles

For additional information please reach out to any of our Manhattan brokerages: DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN Diane Levine Brokerage Manager t: 212.431.2440 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor New York, New York 10010

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN Marissa Ghesquiere Brokerage Manager t: 212.606.7660 38 East 61st Street New York, New York 10065

WEST SIDE MANHATTAN Diane Levine Brokerage Manager t: 212.579.9300 2244 Broadway New York, New York 10024

© MMXVII Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.

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New York City Market Report | Q1 2017  
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