New York City Market Update | Q4 2018

Q4 | 2018

New York City

Market Update

Web: 01310715

All New York City

Luxury Market

04 Market Overview

09 Luxury Market

05 Market Snapshot | All Areas 06 Inventory | Absorption Rate 07 Days on Market | Listing Discount

Ownership Type Analysis

Neighborhood Analysis

10 Condos

14 Upper East Side

12 Co-ops

14 Upper West Side 15 Midtown 15 Uptown 16 Downtown 16 FiDi | Battery Park 17 Total Sales 17 Average Sales Price

New York City Market Overview

The market adjustment continued through the 4th quarter with fewer closed sales. The indication is that buyers maintain an advantage and seller price expectations are being recalculated. Buyers remain cautious about affordability and the cost of ownership with the removal of certain tax benefits. While the local economy is strong, financial markets have been volatile and there are worries that positive economic conditions may not continue. In certain price segments and market areas, sellers have capitulated to new market conditions and prices have stabilized. With sellers offering more negotiability; additional resale listings entering the market; and, new construction inventory expected to arrive this year, the market does present attractive buying opportunities. The 2,599 closed sales this quarter were a 6% decline from prior year. There was a modest 3% increase in the average sale price. The median sale price was reduced by 2% to $1,063,000.

The under $3mil market made up 85% of all sales activity and posted 5% fewer sales than the prior year. This segment held flat year over year at an average sale price of $1.1M and a 2% decrease in the median sale price. In the $3mil-$10mil segment, sales declined 10% while the average and median price measures were up 10% and 7% respectively. Because of a wave of closings at 520 Park Ave and 220 CPS, the $10mil+ category reflected a 9% increase in the number of closed sales with a 21% rise in the average price and a 10% increase in the median price. However, this should not be signaled as strength in the top tier price segment as contracts at both of these new buildings were procured 1-2 years ago.

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, NY 10010 | 212.431.2440 EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Marissa Ghesquiere, Brokerage Manager 38 E. 61st Street | New York, NY 10065 | 212.606.7784 WEST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 2244 Broadway | New York, NY 10024 | 212.579.9300 sothebyshomes.com/nyc © MMXIX Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should be relied upon as such.

Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.

Web: 01310655

Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory

Average / Median Sales Price

8000 $2,500,000

7000 6000

$2,000,000

5000 $1,500,000

4000 3000

$1,000, 000

2000 $500,000

1000 $0

0

Q1:17

Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18 2Q:18 Q3:18 Q4:18 # of Closed Sales

# of Closed Sales

Inventory

Q3:17

Average Sales Price

Inventory

Average Sales Price

1Q:18

Q3:18

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2018 v 2017}

-5%

0%

-2%

4Q:18

2218

$1,102,000

$905,000

4Q:17

2343

$1,100,205

$925,000

{2018 v 2017}

-10%

10%

7%

4Q:18

322

$5,062,000

$4,500,000

4Q:17

356

$4,618,098

$4,200,000

{2018 v 2017}

9%

21%

10%

4Q:18

59

$22,167,000

$16,851,000

4Q:17

54

$18,373,617

$15,294,000

{2018 v 2017}

-6%

3%

-2%

4Q:18

2599

$1,983,734

$1,063,000

4Q:17

2753

$1,918,994

$1,082,000

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

OVER

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Overview

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

Inventory All New York City

2% 6%

4%

8%

35%

21%

24%

Number of Active Listings 2,315 Under $1 Million 1,541 $1 - 2 Million 1,389 $2 - 4 Million 516 $4 - 6 Million 419 $6 - 10 Million 256 $10 - 20 Million 105 $20 Million and Above

CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 07/01/2018-12/31/2018) While the overall Manhattan absorption rate is 6.8 months, properties priced more than $2mil have supply levels of 10 months or greater. This level of inventory is consistent with conditions that favor buyers and weaken pricing in all segments except for the two lowest price tiers (<$1mil and $1mil-$2mil). The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period. The top two price tiers above $10mil have more than a 1-year supply. This sustained oversupply condition at the top end signifies that this market segment continues to necessitate price discounts from sellers.

20 15

Absorption Rate

10

Line of Equilibrium 5

Absorbtion

0

< $1mil $1mil - > $2mil - > $4mil - >$6mil - > $10mil $20mil+ $2mil $4mil $6mil $10mil < $20mil

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

All New York City

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Q2 2018

Q3 2018

Q4 2018

Average Days on Market

96

98

82

90

95

107

101

109

Listing Discount

3%

6%

4%

6%

4%

6%

6%

8%

Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount 9%

120

8%

100

7% 6%

80

5%

60

4% 3%

40

2%

20

1% 0%

0

Q1:17

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

Average Days on Market

Q1:18

Q2:18

Q3:18

Q4:18

Listing Discount

Overview

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

PHOTO BY PAUL VAN COTTHEM ON UNSPLASH

w i n e i s a n e v e r- e n d i n g j o u r n e y. sothebyswine.com

AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London

The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops, Condos & Townhouses Over $10m

Total Volume

by Price Point Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Q2 2018

Q3 2018

Q4 2018

 82

72

54

72

79

 75

59

Average Sales Price

$17,582,000

$16,525,000

$18,373,617

$15,747,000

$19,446,000

$18,046,000

$20,123,000

Highest Sales Price

$55,000,000 $44,000,000 $91,000,000 $35,000,000 $58,000,000 $58,000,000 $73,800,000

# of Closed Sales

Over the 4th quarter of 2018 there were 59 ultra-luxury sales, which is an increase of 25% from the prior year. The average sale price in this market sector was $20,123,000 which was higher by 1% than prior year which had an average of $19,909,000. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $73,800,000 for a 60h floor penthouse condominium unit at 520 Park Avenue. s ot h ebys h o m es.c o m /n yc

Average Selling Price vs. # of Closed Sales $24,000,000

120

$20,000,000 90 $16,000,000 60

$12,000,000 $8,000,000

30 $4,000,000 0

$0

Q1:17

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17 # of Closed Sales # of Closed Sales

1Q:18

2Q:18

Q3:18

Q4:18

Average Sales Price Average Sales Price The Luxury Market

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

Condos {Q4 | 2018}

manhattan

Condominium sales were substantially lower with 15% fewer sales overall. The 1,081 closed condo sales this quarter posted significantly higher numbers due to closings at a few high-end, luxury buildings that skewed the numbers including 432 Park Avenue, 520 Park Avenue, 220 CPS and 70 Vestry Street. The average sale price increased 11% to $2,994,000 in Q4 2018 compared to $2,699,000 in Q4 2017. The median sale price fell 9% to $1,526,000. The average price per square was higher as the measure ticked upward 8% to $2,014. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price of $1,367,000 was 2% higher than the prior year while the median sale price fell 3%. For condo units over $10mil, there was a 5% increase in the number of sales during this period over last year with 51 closed sales. These sales revealed an increase in the average sale price of 25% to $25,583,000. The average price per square foot for units priced over $10mil was 16% higher than prior year, ending at $5,219 per SF.

Web: 00112238

+11

%

Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}

-15

%

Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}

1,081 Units Sold

2.99m

$

Average Selling Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

$3,500,000 2,000

$3,000,000

1, 800

$2,500,000

1, 600 1, 400

$2,000,000

1, 200

$1,500,000

1, 000

$1,000, 000

800 600

$500,000

400

$0

Q1:1 7

200 0

Q1:17

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

1Q:1 8

2Q:18 Q3:18

Q3:17

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Q4:18

1Q:1 8

Q3:18

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Average Price/Sq.Ft.

{2018 v 2017}

-15%

2%

-3%

6%

4Q:18

813

$1,367,000

$1,249,000

$1,685

4Q:17

956

$1,341,380

$1,287,000

$1,590

{2018 v 2017}

-20%

14%

10%

4%

4Q:18

217

$5,205,000

$4,740,000

$2,491

4Q:17

271

$4,568,160

$4,292,000

$2,395

{2018 v 2017}

5%

25%

23%

16%

4Q:18

51

$23,583,000

$18,750,000

$5,219

4Q:17

49

$18,929,460

$15,294,000

$4,499

{2018 v 2017}

-15%

11%

-9%

8%

4Q:18

1081

$2,994,425

$1,526,000

$2,014

4Q:17

1276

$2,698,486

$1,680,500

$1,872

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Condos

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

Co-Ops {Q4 | 2018}

manhattan

Fourth quarter 2018 co-op sales volume were up by 3% from the prior year. The average overall coop price was $1,264,000 up slightly 1% year over year. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price decreased 1% and the median sale price decreased 2% year over year. There were 2% more sales in the under $3mil segment. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3mil to $10 mil, the average sales price was flat compared to the prior year while the median sales price gained 4% year over year.

Additionally, there was an increase of 8% in the number of closed sales in the $3-$10mil bracket. There were only 7 recorded sales in the top tier co-op price bracket $10mil and higher, posting an average price of $11,853,000 which was 15% lower than prior year where 8 units were sold.

+1

%

Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}

+3

%

Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}

1,518 Units Sold

1.26m

$

Average Selling Price

Web: 00112450

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

2500

$1,600,000

2000

$1,400,000 $1,200,000

1500

$1,000, 000 $800, 000

1000

$600,000 $400, 000 $200,000

500

$0

Q1:1 7

Q3:17

1Q:1 8

Q3:18

0 AverageSales Sales Price Average Price

Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:1 8 2Q:18 Q3:18 Q4:18

Median Sales Median SalesPrice Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2018 v 2017}

2%

-1%

-2%

4Q:18

1408

$941,000

$736,000

4Q:17

1374

$949,000

$750,000

{2018 v 2017}

8%

0%

4%

4Q:18

103

$4,751,000

$4,171,000

4Q:17

95

$4,746,000

$4,000,000

{2018 v 2017}

-15%

-22%

-26%

4Q:18

7

$11,853,000

$11,675,000

4Q:17

8

$15,247,000

$15,750,000

{2018 v 2017}

3%

1%

-1%

4Q:18

1518

$1,264,000

$784,000

4Q:17

1477

$1,245,580

$795,000

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Co-Ops

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

new york city

Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

136

198

-31%

Average Sales Price

$2,332,000

$2,435,800

-4%

Median Sales Price

$1,675,000

$1,567,500

7%

COOPS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

411

395

4%

Average Sales Price

$1,720,000

$1,460,000

18%

Median Sales Price

$980,000

$825,000

19%

Closed Sales

The Upper East market area exhibited 4% higher sales count in the coop sector with the average sale price rising 18% to end at $1,720,000. This condo sector posted 31% fewer sales.

The average condominium price fell 4% from the prior year at $2,332,000 (these area-specific figures exclude sales at 520 Park Avenue). The median price was $980,000 for co-op units, a 19% increase. Condo sales had a median of $1,675,000, 7% higher than prior year.

Upper West Side

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

145

228

-36%

Average Sales Price

$2,779,000

$2,680,000

4%

Median Sales Price

$1,425,000

$1,783,000

-20%

COOPS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

301

229

31%

Average Sales Price

$1,308,000

$1,497,000

-13%

Median Sales Price

$958,000

$1,115,000

-14%

Closed Sales

Co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,308,000, an 13% decrease from the prior year. The condo sector had a 36% decline in sales volume with just 145 closings. This was due to fewer closings at the new developments, specifically 1 West End. These condo sales had an average sale price of $2,779,000, an 4% increase from prior year. The median price was sharply lower with a 20% drop to $1,425,000.

Midtown

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

314

248

27%

Average Sales Price

$2,943,000

$3,053,000

-4%

Median Sales Price

$1,390,000

$1,475,000

-6%

COOPS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

287

209

37%

Average Sales Price

$934,000

$1,075,000

-13%

Median Sales Price

$640,000

$739,000

-13%

Closed Sales

The average co-op sale price in this market area was lower by 13% ending at $934,000 while the median co-op price was also down 13% to $640,000. This market area had an average condo sale price of $2,943,000 which was 4% lower than last year.

Uptown

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

92

98

-7%

Average Sales Price

$978,000

$1,060,000

-8%

Median Sales Price

$745,000

$750,000

-1%

COOPS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

120

117

3%

Average Sales Price

$574,000

$541,000

6%

Median Sales Price

$540,000

$515,000

5%

Closed Sales

Neighborhood Highlights

The average price of co-ops was $574,000 which was 6% higher compared to prior year. The median sale price of a co-op unit increased 5% to $540,000. The number of co-ops sold increased 3% year over year. There were 7% fewer sales in the condo segment. Although the average sale price was down 8% to $978,000, the median remained relatively unchanged.

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

new york city

Neighborhood Highlights Downtown

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

314

386

-19%

Average Sales Price

$4,005,000

$3,643,000

10%

Median Sales Price

$2,450,000

$2,610,000

-6%

COOPS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

379

500

-24%

Average Sales Price

$1,233,000

$1,236,000

0%

Median Sales Price

$827,500

$800,000

3%

Closed Sales

The 379 co-op sales in the 4th quarter of 2018 marked a 24% decline year over year. The co-op average sale price measure was flat at $1,230,000 compared to $1,236,000 exhibited the prior year.

The median co-op sale price was also higher by 3% ending this quarter at $827,500. In the condo sector, the 314 sales were a 19% decline year over prior year. The average sales price of $4,005,000 was 10% higher while the median sales price increased 20% to $2,550,000.

Financial District / Battery Park

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

80

118

-32%

Average Sales Price

$1,399,000

$1,723,300

-19%

Median Sales Price

$1,085,000

$1,225,500

-11%

COOPS

Q4 2018

Q4 2017

% Change

21

27

-25%

Average Sales Price

$966,000

$975,000

-1%

Median Sales Price

$733,000

$780,000

-6%

Closed Sales

There were only 80 condo units closed in the fourth quarter of 2018, a decline of 32% over the prior year.

Condominium price measures were substantially lower because of far fewer new construction sales. The average sales price was down 19% over the year prior to $1,399,000.

The median sales price was down 11% year over year to$1,085,000. This market area has the fewest co-ops of any market with just 21 closed coop sales. These sales displayed an average sale price of $966,000 while the median sale price was $733,000.

Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1,400 1,200 Upper East Side

1,000

Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown Upper West Side Downtown Midtown Uptown Downtown

800 600 400

Fi Di /Uptown Battery Park City

200

FiDi / Battery Park

-

Q1:17

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

Q1:18

22Q:18

Q3:18

Q4:18

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $3,000,000 $2,500,000 Upper East Side

$2,000,000

Upper West Side $1,500,000 $1,000,000

Upper East Side Upper West Side

Midtown

Midtown

Uptown

Downtown

Downtown

Uptown

Fi Di / Battery Park City FiDi / Battery Park

$500,000 $0

Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17

Q1:18 2Q:18 Q3:18 Q4:18

Neighborhood Highlights

/ New York City Q4 Market Update

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© MMXIX Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.