NYC Market Update | Q1 2018

Q1 | 2018

New York City

Market Update

Web: 00111270

All New York City

Luxury Market

04 Market Overview

09 Luxury Market

05 Market Snapshot | All Areas 06 Inventory | Absorption Rate 07 Days on Market | Listing Discount

Ownership Type Analysis

Neighborhood Analysis

10 Condos

14 Upper East Side

12 Co-ops

14 Upper West Side 15 Midtown 15 Uptown 16 Downtown 16 FiDi | Battery Park 17 Total Sales 17 Average Sales Price

New York City Market Overview

Lower sales volume, rising inventory and a general lack of urgency on the part of buyers sustained a market correction that ensued last quarter.

While lower price statistics were more about fewer new construction sales than about tax reform, buyers remained cautious and skeptical about what constitutes fair and realistic pricing. According to Vanderbilt Appraisal Services, the 2,371 closed sales in Q1 2018 were a 19% decline from the prior year, mainly due to the wave of new construction activity abating. An overall 9% decline in the average sale price was coupled with a more modest 3% decline in the median sale price. The average sale price fell under $2M for the third consecutive quarter which can also be largely attributed to reaching the near full sequence of the latest new construction cycle. The under $3M market made up 85% of all sales activity in Q1 2018 and posted 17% fewer sales than the prior year. However, this segment posted a 4% increase in the average sale price and 6% increase in median sale price. Both the average and median sale prices in the $3M to $10M category declined 3%. The $10M+ price category reflected a 37% drop in the number of closed sales with a 12% reduction in the average price and 6% drop in median price.

In Q1 2018, the average sale price of all recorded Manhattan apartment sales was $1.95M, a 9% decline over prior year. The median sale price of $1.2M was a minor 3% decline over the prior year. The median sale price for all of Manhattan has registered over $1M for 11 consecutive quarters.

The number of sales declined in the first quarter of the year to 2,371 from 2,923 in the first quarter of 2017. Inventory is at 6,256 listings, which is 9% higher than the 5,725 listings the prior year. This level of inventory is still below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings.

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

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Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 2244 Broadway | New York, NY 10024 | 212.579.9300 sothebyshomes.com/nyc © MMXVIII Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.

Web: 0139764

Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory

Average / Median Sales Price

7000 $2,500,000

6000 5000

$2,000,000

4000

$1,500,000

3000 $1,000,000 2000 $500,000

1000

$0

0

Q2:16

Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18 # of Closed Sales

# of Closed Sales

Q4:16

Q2:17

Q4:17

Inventory Average Sales Price Average Sales Price

Inventory

Median Sales Price Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2018 v 2017}

-17%

4%

6%

Q1 ‘18

2010

$1,161,000

$950,000

Q1 ‘17

2412

$1,120,000

$900,000

{2018 v 2017}

-28%

-3%

-3%

Q1 ‘18

309

$4,840,000

$4,300,000

Q1 ‘17

428

$5,001,000

$4,425,000

{2018 v 2017}

-37%

-12%

-6%

Q1 ‘18

52

$15,500,000

$13,575,000

Q1 ‘17

83

$17,600,000

$14,420,000

{2018 v 2017}

-19%

-9%

-3%

Q1 ‘18

2371

$1,945,000

$1,190,000

Q1 ‘17

2923

$2,139,000

$1,230,000

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

OVER

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Overview

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

Inventory All New York City

2% 8%

4% 28%

10%

23% 25%

Number of Active Listings 1762 1593 1460 606 486 245 104

Under $1 Million $1 - 2 Million $2 - 4 Million $4 - 6 Million $6 - 10 Million $10 - 20 Million $20 Million and Above

CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 10/01/2017-03/31/2018) The overall Manhattan absorption is 7.1 months (up from 5.8 months in prior year). This level of inventory generally signifies a market in â&#x20AC;&#x153;equilibriumâ&#x20AC;?. However, certain pockets and price segments in the market continue to be weak with supply conditions heavily favoring buyers. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period. The lower price segments continue to experience shortages of inventory with < $1mil at 4.3 months of supply and from $1mil- $2mil at 6.8 months of supply. Units priced from $6mil to $10mil have a 17.4-month absorption rate. The top two price tiers above $10mil have well over one year supply. This is an oversupply condition that will likely lead to continued discounts and longer marketing time for the highest valued properties. As the oversupply continues in the highest price brackets, it is increasingly more difficult for sellers in the top price segments to remain inflexible in their price expectations.

25 20

Absorption Rate

15 10

Line of Equilibrium Absorbtion

5 0

< $1mil $1mil - > $2mil - > $4mil - >$6mil - > $10mil $20mil+ $2mil $4mil $6mil $10mil < $20mil

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

All New York City

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Average Days on Market

88

84

91

96

98

82

90

95

Listing Discount

7%

6%

7%

3%

6%

5%

5%

4%

Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount 8%

120

7%

100

6% 80

5% 4%

60

3%

40

2% 20

1%

0

0%

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Average Days on Market

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

Q1:18

Listing Discount

Overview

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

Flawless.

Exceptional Diamonds. Curated by Sothebyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s.

SALON OPEN NEW BOND STREET, LONDON. SOTHEBYSDIAMONDS.COM

The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops, Condos & Townhouses Over $10m

Total Volume

by Price Point Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

67

72

95

82

61

53

72

Average Sales Price

$18,935,000

$18,527,000

$17,800,000

$17,582,000

$15,749,000

$18,373,617

$15,465,000

Highest Sales Price

$59,144,000

$60,894,000

$65,662,000

$55,000,000 $44,000,000 $91,000,000 $39,000,000

# of Closed Sales

Over the 1st quarter of 2018 there were 72 ultra-luxury sales, which is a 24% decline from the prior year. The average sale price in this market sector was $15,465,000 which was lower than prior year which had an average of $17,800,000. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $39mil for an Upper East Side townhouse at 16 East 69th Street. s ot h ebys h o m es.c o m /n yc

Average Selling Price vs. # of Closed Sales 150

$20,000,000

120

$16,000,000

90

$12,000,000

60

$8,000,000

30

$4,000,000

0

$0

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17 # of Closed Sales

# of Closed Sales

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

1Q:18

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price

The Luxury Market

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

Condos {Q1 | 2018}

manhattan

Average condominium sales prices were substantially lower with 30% fewer sales overall. The 1,011 closed condo sales this quarter was the lowest number of sales in the past 8 quarters. This is logical given that the latest wave of new development activity that started in 2015 has neared the end of the cycle. The average sale price declined 13% to $2,740,000 year over year while the median sale price fell 8% to $1,725,000. The average price per square foot was also lower as the measure fell 11% to $1,863. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price of $1,465,000 was 5% higher than prior year while the median sale price also increased 5% to end at $1,300,000. For condo units over $10mil, there were 44% fewer sales with a drop in the average sale price to $15,950,000. Average sales price over $10mil was down 9% year over year as sellers in this category initiated a more realistic stance on pricing. The average price per square foot for units valued over $10mil was 11% lower than prior year, ending at $3,750 per SF.

Web: 0139751

-13

%

Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}

30

%

Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}

1,011 Units Sold

2.74m

$

Average Selling Price

Number of Closed Sales

1800

Average / Median Sales Price

$3,500,000

1600

$3,000,000

1400

$2,500,000

1200

$2,000,000

1000 $1,500,000 800 $1,000,000 600 $500,000

400

$0

200

Q2:16

0

Q4:16

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18

Q2:17

Q4:17

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Median Price/Sq.Ft.

{2018 v 2017}

-27%

5%

5%

5%

Q1 ‘18

758

$1,465,000

$1,300,000

$1,501

Q1 ‘17

1036

$1,389,000

$1,235,000

$1,435

{2018 v 2017}

-37%

-4%

-2%

-5%

Q1 ‘18

217

$4,900,000

$4,400,000

$2,240

Q1 ‘17

344

$5,100,000

$4,500,000

$2,370

{2018 v 2017}

-44%

-9%

-4%

-11%

Q1 ‘18

36

$15,950,000

$13,650,000

$3,750

Q1 ‘17

64

$17,600,000

$14,250,000

$4,200

{2018 v 2017}

-30%

-13%

-8%

-11%

Q1 ‘18

1011

$2,740,000

$1,725,000

$1,863

Q1 ‘17

1444

$3,150,000

$1,875,000

$2,090

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Condos

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

Co-Ops {Q1 | 2018}

manhattan

First quarter 2018 co-op average sales price was down by 8% from the prior year and 10% lower compared to prior quarter. The average overall co-op price was higher by 12% compared to the prior year at $1,355,000. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price increased 6% and the median sale price also increased 6% year over year. There were 9% fewer sales in the under $3mil segment. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3mil to $10 mil, the measures posted a nominal gain of 1% in the average sales price while the median sales price gained 8% year over year.

There were only 16 recorded sales in the top tier co-op price bracket $10mil and higher, posting an average price of $14,966,000 which was 16% lower than prior year.

12

%

Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}

-8

%

Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}

1,360 Units Sold

1.35m

$

Average Selling Price

Web: 00111610

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

2500 $1,600,000 $1,400,000

2000

$1,200,000 $1,000,000

1500

$800,000 $600,000

1000

$400,000 $200,000 500

$0

Q2:16 0

Q4:16

Average Sales Price

Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18

Average Sales Price

Q2:17

Q4:17

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2018 v 2017}

-9%

6%

6%

Q1 ‘18

1252

$976,000

$770,000

Q1 ‘17

1376

$918,000

$725,000

{2018 v 2017}

10%

1%

8%

Q1 ‘18

92

$4,710,000

$4,150,000

Q1 ‘17

84

$4,650,000

$3,850,000

{2018 v 2017}

-16%

-16%

-6%

Q1 ‘18

16

$14,966,000

$13,800,000

Q1 ‘17

19

$17,775,000

$14,750,000

{2018 v 2017}

-8%

12%

9%

Q1 ‘18

1360

$1,355,000

$815,000

Q1 ‘17

1479

$1,210,000

$750,000

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Co-Ops

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

new york city

Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

141

189

-25%

Average Sales Price

$2,413,000

$2,933,000

-18%

Median Sales Price

$1,750,000

$1,677,000

4%

COOPS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

354

385

-8%

Average Sales Price

$1,810,000

$1,625,000

11%

Median Sales Price

$907,000

$818,000

11%

Closed Sales

The Upper East market area exhibited 8% fewer sales in the coop sector. However, the average co-op sale price posted an 11% increase to $1,810,000.

This quarter, condos posted 25% fewer sales and an average price of $2,413,000, 18% lower than 2017. The median price figures were $907,000 for co-op units, an 11% increase. Condo sales had a median of $1,750,000.

Upper West Side

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

146

161

-9%

Average Sales Price

$2,650,000

$3,154,000

-16%

Median Sales Price

$1,625,000

$1,595,000

2%

COOPS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

266

282

-6%

Average Sales Price

$1,755,000

$1,593,000

10%

Median Sales Price

$915,000

$875,000

5%

Closed Sales

The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 266, a decline of 6% from the prior year. However, co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,755,000, a 10% increase from the prior year. The condo sector had slightly lower sales volume with 146 closings.

These sales had an average sale price of $2,650,000, a 16% drop from prior year.

Midtown

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

202

269

-25%

Average Sales Price

$2,593,000

$2,397,000

8%

Median Sales Price

$1,370,000

$1,388,000

-1%

COOPS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

221

245

-10%

Average Sales Price

$915,000

$938,000

-2%

Median Sales Price

$676,000

$650,000

4%

Closed Sales

The average co-op sale price in this market area was marginally lower ending at $915,000 while the median co-op price was up slightly to $676,000. This market area had an average condo sale price of $2,593,000 which was 8% higher than last year. The median sale price was essentially stable at $1,370,000.

Uptown

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

61

85

-28%

Average Sales Price

$1,110,000

$872,000

27%

Median Sales Price

$800,000

$705,000

13%

COOPS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

137

122

12%

Average Sales Price

$602,000

$528,000

14%

Median Sales Price

$520,000

$489,000

6%

Closed Sales

The average price of co-ops was $602,000 which was 14% higher compared to prior year.

The median sale price of a co-op unit increased 5% to $676,000.

The number of co-ops sold increased 12% as this was the only market segment with higher sales compared with last year.

The average condo sales price to $1,110,000, a gain of 27% over prior year.

Neighborhood Highlights

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

new york city

Neighborhood Highlights Downtown

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

404

581

-30%

Average Sales Price

$3,177,000

$3,940,000

-19%

Median Sales Price

$2,195,000

$2,550,000

-14%

COOPS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

365

420

-13%

Average Sales Price

$1,369,000

$1,115,000

23%

Median Sales Price

$930,000

$829,000

12%

Closed Sales

The 365 co-op sales in the 1st quarter of 2018 marked a 13% decline year over year. The co-op average sale price measure was up 23%, rising to $1,369,000 versus $1,115,000 exhibited prior year. The median co-op sale price was also higher ending this quarter at $930,000. In the condo sector, fewer new construction sales caused price measures to decline.

Financial District / Battery Park

{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}

CONDOS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

Closed Sales

57

159

-64%

Average Sales Price

$1,600,000

$3,178,000

-50%

Median Sales Price

$1,175,000

$2,050,000

-43%

COOPS

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

% Change

17

25

-32%

Average Sales Price

$1,022,000

$931,000

10%

Median Sales Price

$886,000

$815,000

9%

Closed Sales

57 condo units closed in the first quarter of 2018, a major decline of 64% over the prior year.

Condominium price measures were substantially lower because of far fewer new construction sales. This market area has the fewest co-ops of any market with just 17 closed co-op sales. These sales displayed an average sale price of $1,022,000 while the median sale price was $886,000.

Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1400 1200 Upper East Side

1000

Upper East Side

Upper West Side

Upper West Side

800

Midtown

Midtown

600

Downtown

Downtown

Uptown

400

Uptown

Fi Di / Battery Park City

200

FiDi / Battery Park

0

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

Q1:18

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $3,000,000 $2,500,000 Upper Upper East Side East Side

$2,000,000

West Side Upper Upper West Side Midtown Midtown

$1,500,000

Downtown Uptown $1,000,000

Uptown Downtown / Battery Fi Di / FiDi Battery Park Park City

$500,000 $0

Q2:16

Q3:16

Q4:16

Q1:17

Q2:17

Q3:17

Q4:17

Q1:18

Neighborhood Highlights

/ New York City Q1 Market Update

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© MMXVIII Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.