URBAN AIR MOBILITY - THE POTENTIAL

We will first of all look at the potential and hype around the sector.

A recent Deloitte Insights Report, “Change is in the Air”, made a number of projections:

Between 2025-2030, the idea is that we will start seeing the basic infrastructure evolve, including so-called “vertiports”, as well as the first stage of commercial flights -though these are more likely to be piloted, as opposed to autonomous

By 2030, so at the start of the next decade, Deloitte expects to see “greater social acceptance”, e.g normalisation, and greater adoption.

At the same time there will be advances in battery technology allowing for longer ranges.

Already at the Paris Olympics in two years’ time, we should see EVAs getting a significant publicity boost, following the news last year that “flying taxis” are being trialled with the idea that they will be used to bring (we assume) officials and athletes to the Olympic and Paralympic venues.

Those eVTOL’s will be from Volocopter, while British operator Skyports is working with Paris airports authority Groupe ADP, to create a modular “Vertiport” reception infrastructure.

This facility will enable the testing of boarding and disembarking operations, recharging batteries and vehicle maintenance.

Electric ‘air taxis’ should then be even more prominent at the games after that, in Los Angeles in 2028. This is of course because many urban mobility companies are based in California.

Meanwhile the LA area itself is a so-called “battleground for eVTOLs”, with a number of urban mobility firms partnering with the LA-city funded Urban Movement Labs, which calls itself “a public-private partnership to make Los Angeles the transportation innovation capital of the world.”

As a result, the vision in LA is for the city to be “the transportation technology capital of the world” by the time the 2028 games come around.

So eVTOLs are making the news, being linked to major international events, and urban areas are starting to plan how they can be integrated into their transport systems.

WHAT ARE AIRLINES DOING?

Not surprisingly, airlines are taking an active interest in what Morgan Stanley says will eventually be a $1.5 trillion dollar market.

For example, in February 2021, urban mobility company Archer Aviation made the news, when United Airlines agreed to assist the company in the development of battery-powered, short-haul aircraft.

United said that once the aircraft are in operation “and have met United’s operating and business requirements”, it, along with partner Mesa Airlines, would acquire a fleet of up to 200 of these electric aircraft.

The idea is that they will serve as a “quick, economical and low-carbon way to get to United’s hub airports and commute in dense urban environments within the next five years.”

This was followed by another announcement in April, that United and Archer are forming a joint eVTOL advisory committee.

This committee, chaired by a senior executive of both Archer and United, will be “advising on maintenance and operational concepts to recommend to Archer for its all-electric aircraft aimed at driving towards best-in-class operational standards.”

In Japan, Japan Airlines has said it would like eVTOLs to be in operation for Expo 2025 in Osaka. These electric vertical aircraft will be ones made by Volocopter (in which JAL is an investor).

There’s also active eVTOL airline activity in Brazil. GOL intends to operate 250 aircraft, made by the UK company Vertical Aerospace. At the same time, Lilium, one of the giants in the urban mobility field, is working with Azul to deliver 220 aircraft from 2025.

Meanwhile, Vertical Aerospace and Virgin Atlantic say they are working on shorthaul, electric aircraft connectivity between UK cities and airport hubs starting with London Heathrow, Manchester and London Gatwick.

The two parties say that the V-X4 offers huge potential to support zero emissions short haul transfers for 7.7 million customers outside of London, for flights to and from the UK’s main hub airport.

Finally, American has also signed an agreement with Vertical Aerospace, committing to buy up to 250 aircraft.