THE RISE OF REGIONAL AVIATION

By 2028, we will see the start of a regional aviation renaissance as short-range electric and hydrogen aircraft begin to enter service. Cheap, low-noise and low-pollution point-to-point regional and commuter flights will disrupt the current hub and spoke model, with many smaller airports coming back to life or even seeing commercial air travel for the first time.

During the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, flying medium- or long-haul will look much as it does right now as the world’s major airlines will still be receiving deliveries of the kind of aircraft that are in service at the moment, such as the Airbus A321, A350 or Boeing 787 Dreamliner. For example, United Airlines’ recent giant aircraft order from Boeing will see those aircraft being delivered until 2032.

Where we can expect to see big changes, however, is in the regional air mobility market. In addition to the eVTOLs we talked about in the previous section, by 2028, next-generation low- or zero-carbon regional aircraft will be flying in our skies.

For example, 2028 is the year that Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 is due to come into service. At the time of writing, investors, partners and customers include United

Airlines, Air Canada, Air New Zealand and SAS – to name just a few. By 2028, ZeroAvia should also have successfully completed certification for both its ZA600 and ZA2000 hydrogen-electric powertrains, meaning that they will be used in regional aircraft of up to 80 seats. Meanwhile, very small (9-19 seat) electric and hybrid-electric aircraft due to be flying on commuter routes by 2028 include the Eviation Alice and Electra’s eSTOL (electric short take-off and landing) aircraft.

CHEAPER, CLEANER, QUIETER

In addition to offering environmental benefits, this next generation of regional and commuter aircraft could potentially be transformative for the communities they serve, and result in a regional air mobility revolution. Their introduction will reverse the trend of many smaller regional airports losing commercial air services due to regional turboprop fleets being relatively expensive to operate.

By comparison, electric, hybrid-electric and hydrogen-electric aircraft offer significant savings. ZeroAvia, for instance, estimates that its hydrogen-electric powertrains offer 60% lower powertrain operating costs compared to turbines, making it not only much more economical to fly point to point but also relieving pressure on crowded hubs.

As well as pollution and operating costs, these aircraft will be much quieter, removing another common friction point with communities situated near airports. To give one example, electric aircraft engine maker magniX has carried out tests on an ‘eBeaver’, a modified DHC-2 Beaver Seaplane. It found that the sound emitted decreased at least 100x on average, compared to the standard Beaver during all phases of flight.

In its Regional Air Mobility Report, NASA summarised what all this will mean, concluding that “the local airport you may not even know existed will soon be a catalyst for change in how you travel.” Instead of being expensive, noisy and polluting, flying short distances could end up being the greenest form of travel by the end of the decade, turning the received wisdom about short-haul aviation and the environment on its head.

Overcoming Battery Limitations By 2028

Battery issues have previously held back the developments of electric aircraft. So let’s look at the advances in battery technology by 2028 that will make Regional Air Mobility (RAM) possible.

In a July 2022 paper on electric aviation, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) concluded that (as things stood at the time of writing) an electric aircraft could probably carry nine passengers for a distance of 140km.

The ICCT did, however, account for an improvement in the technology, saying that nearly doubling the battery-specific energy would allow a 90-seat aircraft to fly for 280 km. This goal looks to be in sight. For example, Cuberg is developing a lithium metal battery with electric aviation in mind that offers energy densities some 70% higher than conventional NMC lithium-ion batteries of today.

Meanwhile, NASA is working on a solid-state battery project called SABERS. Instead of being lithium based, this battery is made primarily from sulphur and selenium. In October 2022, NASA said that the initial results had exceeded expectations. According to Rocco Viggiano, principal investigator for SABERS, “not only does this design eliminate 30 to 40 per cent of the battery’s weight, but it also allows us to double or even triple the energy it can store, far exceeding the capabilities of lithium-ion batteries that are considered to be state of the art.”

Cuberg expects to start production in 2026. Meanwhile, auto giant Nissan has partnered with NASA on the solid-state battery development, expecting them to be ready in 2028. As a result, by 2028, one of the biggest technology hurdles to net-zero short regional and commuter aviation will have – to a large part – been overcome.