GEOM20013 Assignment 2 Census GIS

Applications of GIS Assignment 2: Census GIS 5/4/19 Shruti Dalvi: 993220 Pages:11 Word Count:1400

TREND IN AGEING POULATION & EMPLOYMENT 2019

CONTENTS INTRODUCTION METHODOLY SELECTED SA2 AREAS RESULTS PTV BUS ROUTES PTV TRAIN ROUTES DISCUSSION SUGGESTIONS CONCLUSION

2

INTRODUCTION

M O T I V AT I O N Considering the significant rise in ageing population, as seen in Figure 1, in Australia with almost every 1 in 7 Australia aged 65 and over (AIHW, 2018), it is essential that the urban form and infrastructure adjusts to this shift in demographic. The key reasons for ageing population being higher life expectancy rates, also indicate to healthier lifestyles of humans hence they are living longer which means we have to accommodate to an older way of living and consider employment for those who are past current retirement age but still require an active lifestyle.

P R O B L E M S T AT E M E N T A need for better elderly employment services and access through public transport infrastructure is needed for the increased ageing population (ages 55+).

APPROACH Through research I have found the trend in ageing population in Australia and mapped the ageing population and from that derived the percentage of elderly population not in the workforce. This allows for a clear visual of the population which requires detailed attention and greater services. Through mapping the public transport system across the 3 selected SA2 Areas, I have showcased the lack of adequate transport for elderly population who may not drive.

MAIN FINDINGS There is a large percentage of the ageing population not in the workforce and with the retirement age of Australians extending further, I have found the trend that supports the notion of increased public transport routes and connections and services which allow elderly people to get into the workface in their late age.

3

METHODOLOGY ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪

▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪

Adding SA2 Victoria layer onto ArcGIS through selecting the Victoria attribute and exporting as new layer Converting SA2 area codes from numeric to text in order to export to SA2 Vic area Creating a join for the table and SA2 Vic map Changing symbology to visually show the difference in population through gradient of shades.

Repeating same for trend two, percentage of ageing population and calculating the percentage values: [trend/total population + 0.00001] *100 Ensure no 0 values are divided Drag public transport data shape files into map and overlay on SA2 Vic areas Highlight selected areas In layout view, add border, orientation, legend, title and scale Export map as PNG and label required areas

Parameters used

Table T01 Total population used

Table 33A, B, C, D, E Employment data

Classification of parameters

Arrange data from ages 55+

Collect data only about ages 55+ not in workforce

Evaluation

Add data table into SA2 Vic map and analyse trend

Add data to SA2 Vic/calculate and map percentage

4

SELECTED SA2 AREAS

Legend

MORNINGTON

SOMERVILLE

HASTINGS – SOMERS

▪

Located south of Metropolitan Melbourne

▪

Near the bay hence increased tourism for local and international tourists

▪

Establish areas of the south, no new developments but rich historical image

▪

Selected areas are neighbouring suburbs hence affect and gain from each 5 other’s population and economic activity

On the left, Map 1 shows the total population of people aged 55 and above, hence defined elderly population of 2006 in areas of Mornington, Somerville and HastingsSomers.

RESULTS

Below, Map 2 shows the total elderly population in numbers of the selected areas, the trend showing a darker shade hence indicating an increase in population of elderly people.

Mornington 6536

Somerville 3315

Hastings-Somers 4244

Mornington 7217

Somerville 4167

Hastings-Somers 5197

Mornington 8814

Somerville 5054

Hastings-Somers 6694

Map 3 on the left shows a clear increase in population while the darkest colour indicates greatest population compared to HastingsSomers and Somerville. There is a clear trend that there is an increase in population of elderly people.

6

RESULTS

Mornington 71.3%

Map 4 on the left indicates the percentage of elderly population in the 3 selected areas who are not in the workforce in 2006. As can be seen through the light colours, there is a relatively high percentage of elderly people not in the workforce as compared to Map 5 below which shows more saturated colours hence shows a greater concentration of population not in the workforce in 2011.

Somerville 56.9%

Hastings-Somers 63.5%

Mornington 72.4%

Somerville 59.1%

Hastings-Somers 68..6%

Mornington 75.3%

Somerville 55.6%

Hastings-Somers 65.1%

On the left, Map 6 is the most recent data showing high percentage of elderly population not in the workforce, even greater than past few years and Mornington showing the highest percentage of elderly people not in 7 the workforce.

PTV BUS ROUTES

A clear lack of sufficient bus routes can be seen in the highlighted yellow areas with only 2 routes running in Somerville which drops down to just one route in Hastings – Somers. While there are more routes in Mornington, there are none connecting the area east to west. More analysis will be provided in suggestion

8

PTV TRAIN ROUTES

With only a single train line running through Somerville and HastingsSomers and none through Mornington, there is a significant issue in public transport link between Metro Melbourne and the selected SA2 areas. The Stony Point line is the one that runs through Somerville and Hastings. More analysis in suggestions section.

9

DISCUSSION ANALYSIS OF MAPS Through mapping the trend in total elderly population, we can clearly distinguish the trend of ageing population over the last 10 years. The numeric labels allow a clear visual of numerical increase and gradual increase in intensity of colour allows us to see the visual increase in population. Through the maps, it can be derived that Mornington is the heaviest populated with an older population at 8814 people in 2016 compared to 6536 in 2006. Over the 10 years, there is an average percentage increase in ageing population in total by 32%.

The maps for aged population not in the workforce in the 3 towns represent a trend of significant percentage of total elderly population who does not participate in the workforce. While the percentage of elderly people not in workforce decreased for Somerville from 2006 to 2016, the rate increased by an average of 1.6% for Mornington and Hastings-Somers. It is essential to note that this increase in unemployed elderly people grows in a similar trend to the total elderly population grows.

CURRENT ISSUES • The growing ageing population needs to stay healthy and active, some may be just sitting in their homes without moving throughout the day • Employment opportunities for elderly population such as consulting, tutoring, lollipop person, customer service or coach could highly encourage active movement and healthier lifestyles for these individuals • The high tourist character of Mornington attracts lots of business which can provide as an excellent workforce for the significant number of senior citizens in the area • This is stopped by the lack of any train line going into Mornington. If the train lines and train stations were increased, there could be heavy movement in and out of Mornington

10

SUGGESTIONS

Create employment hubs

Encourage active movement and healthier lifestyles for these individuals

Greater attention to public transport infrastructure

Increase train stations and add train line

Increase connectivity between SA2 areas and within them

Increase bus routes within and between SA2 areas

Neighbouring SA2 areas can feed of each other’s economic developments

Easier access to transport increase social activity hence to lead to healthier lifestyle

11

CONCLUSION L I M I T AT I O N S Due to the static nature of the data, assumptions had to be made about the percentages and numbers in the data while some datasets may also be incorrectly calculated. Another assumption made was that the census considered every individual living in the SA2 area whereas this is not the case. The movement of people is too dynamic for the data to be accurate. Assumptions had to be made about the health of the elderly population who are not in the workforce. A certain percentage may not be physically or mentally fit to work but for the study, the general population has been taken into account.

EXTENSIONS While achieving the required shift in infrastructure may take a while, similar ideas can be forwarded to neighbouring areas who have a large percentage of elderly population that are not active in the workforce. This will lead to a rise in health and sociability of the elderly citizens who may not get the physical and mental exercise otherwise.

SUMMARY Through this study, I have visualised the trend in rising ageing population of the neighbouring SA2 areas of Mornington, Somerville and Hastings-Somers. These areas, on average, have 64% of the elderly population not in the workforce which proves a problem for the economic development future of the areas. If the elderly population stays at home, greater amount of staff is required for their care. Through increased employment hubs for comfortable and safe employment options and advice for the elderly population and public transport infrastructure connections between the towns to increase connectivity of the people who don’t have regular access to cars, the elderly population can slowly transition to caring for themselves and their fellows. The increase in social activity will also lead to much healthier lifestyles for this rising and future rising ageing population.

12