Figure 34 Projected passenger demand

5.4. Historical freight demand

There is no dedicated air freight service. Air freight to/from Esperance Airport is carried on the Rex RPT services. No data was available to quantify the historic volume or value of air freight carried.

5.5. Route regulation

The Perth-Esperance route is fully regulated under the WA Aviation Strategy and policies regarding state intervention in the market.

The following regulated routes and their passenger numbers are of specific relevance (source: WAAS Supporting Documents, (18/19 BITRE data)):

• Perth – Albany – 61,469 (fully regulated)

• Perth – Kununurra – 77,072 lightly regulated, seasonal duopoly

• Perth – Learmonth (Exmouth) – 85,789 lightly regulated monopoly (No 3)

• Perth – Geraldton – 110,217 lightly regulated (No 3).

5.6. Forecast passenger demand

Forecast passenger demand is a key determinant of future aircraft operations and infrastructure requirements.

The analysis provided at Figure 34 assumes passenger demand returns to pre-COVID19 levels by June 2021.

Several indicative growth rates (0%, 1%, 1.5% and 2.5%) have been projected from this point to establish a range of reasonably possible outcomes.

A 1% growth rate derives around 60,000 movements (61,624) in 2040, and a 2.5% growth rate produces just over 80,000 movements (81,546) in 2040.

One way of calibrating potential demand is by using multiples of population, noting the forecast for the population to reduce slightly over the next decade. Based on the profile of similar airports, it is highly unlikely that passenger demand would exceed 4 times regional population unless there is some unusual economic circumstance like a mining boom.

Figure 34 Projected passenger demand

An indicative cut-off at 80,000 passenger movements has been adopted as a guide to the likely level of regulation on the Perth-Esperance route.

According to the range of most likely passenger movements, it is likely the PerthEsperance route will remain fully regulated for most if not all of the 20-year master planning period.

YESP01 – MASTER PLAN 2020 – ESPERANCE AIRPORT 30