Pftt 2016 10 06

Can the Broncos, Vikings, and Eagles stay unbeaten?

SINCE 1967

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6, 2016

Way We Hear it

Fantasy Tips

CHARGERS’ McCOY ON HOT SEAT AFTER LAST-MINUTE LOSSES?

WHAT TO DO WITH TODD GURLEY AND LARRY FITZGERALD

Arkush

NCAA

ANALYZING THIS YEARS’ EARLY-SEASON SURPRISE TEAMS

Power Rankings THERE’S A NEW TEAM AT THE TOP

Take 2 WHAT’S WRONG WITH

PANTHERS, CARDINALS

PRO PROSPECTS MYLES GARRETT & DEREK BARNETT

Brady is back!

PATRIOTS STAR QB RETURNS FROM SUSPENSION THIS WEEK

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

What can we glean from the early-season surprise teams?

I

know this is probably not what the majority of NFL fans want to hear right now, particularly those in Oakland, Houston, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta and Los Angeles, but it is just too early to tell if the NFL’s 2016 biggest surprises – the Raiders, Texans, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons and Rams to the upside and the Cardinals, Panthers and Colts to the downside – are the real deal.

We all love to look back over time and study the odds of 4-0 or 3-1 teams hanging on to make the playoffs and, of course, we’re also already checking how rare it is for 0-4, 1-3 or 2-2 teams to make playoff runs.

Clearly, the historical odds will favor the winners and cast doubt on the losers, but none of these measurements is even vaguely close to absolute.

Consider the Panthers in particular.

In 2014, Carolina was 3-8-1 before winning its last four to sneak into the playoffs and then knock off the Cardinals in the wild-card round.

In 2013, they were 1-3 and then won

their offense if you’re eight straight and 11 of not careful, but they their last 12. actually have a loss Obviously, if Cam to the lowly Bucs and Newton is concussed their wins are over the and forced to miss sigRaiders, 1-3 Saints and nificant time, the Pan1-3 Panthers. thers will have a very Like Oakland, the difficult mountain to Atlanta defense has climb back to respectbeen terrible: 30th in ability. total defense and 29th But if the 2015 NFL in points allowed.

MVP is fit and ready to Let’s see what hapgo this Sunday vs. the Bucs, recent history pens in Denver this tells us they are probaweekend and maybe HUB ARKUSH then we’ll at least have bly still the favorites in harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com @Hub_Arkush a clue. the NFC South.

Or will we? Even I’m impressed by the defending Super Bowl champion the Raiders, but can we really say Broncos have put together a 4-0 mark a club that has struggled mightily to against opponents who are a combined eke out last-second victories over the 5-11 — the Panthers, Colts and Bucs all 1-3 Saints, 1-3 Titans and resurgent at 1-3 and the Bengals at 2-2.

Ravens, playing with the NFL’s 19thWe just don’t know. ranked offense, are solid contenders?

As excited as Raiders, Texans, RaOakland is currently 32nd in total defense and 22nd in points allowed. We vens, Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons and really need to wait and see.

Rams fans are right now, of the 21 vicThe Falcons will blow you up with tories they have between them, exactly

Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.

four are over winning teams, including the Falcons’ defeat of the Raiders and the Raiders’ win over Baltimore.

Perhaps the best example of all of the uncertainty of the first quarter of the season is a club I haven’t mentioned and about which most of us have no doubts at all.

The New England Patriots are 3-1, and fans around the league are buzzing that they’ve gotten there without Tom Brady, Rob Ninkovich and with a wounded Rob Gronkowski, while giving Jimmy Garoppolo his first two NFL starts and rookie Jacoby Brissett starting the other two.

Brady and Ninkovich will return this week and Gronk is close to full strength. Does that instantly make the Patriots the best team in the NFL, or will they struggle to find their rhythm behind Brady?

Was the 16-0 whitewash they absorbed at home from Buffalo last week an ominous sign?

Let’s give it a few more weeks and then we’ll know a lot more about all of this.

Getting a little better each week

20. BUFFALO BILLS 21. ARIZONA CARDINALS 22. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 24. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 25. CHICAGO BEARS 26. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 27. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 28. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 29. MIAMI DOLPHINS 30. TENNESSEE TITANS 31. DETROIT LIONS 32. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Nice win over Pats, but a rookie QB in a cast

Solid at 4-0, but victims a combined 5-11

Still time to bounce but has Palmer hit the wall?

With Brady back, now we’ll see who they are

May have saved Bradley’s job in London, for now

Week off to heal on ‘D’, offense coming around

Off the schneid but it took a gift from Chargers

Top 5 at least until somebody beats them

Colts have fallen and they can’t get up

Huge bounce back from Eagles debacle

Now they have a running back, what about QB?

Paxton Lynch filled in for an injured Trevor Siemian in the Broncos win over the Buccaneers on Sunday

Jets beatdown easily best game so far

On the cusp, but better figure out the red zone How good can they be in life after Watt?

14. DALLAS COWBOYS 15. LOS ANGELES RAMS 16. CAROLINA PANTHERS 17. NEW YORK JETS 18. WASHINGTON 19. NEW YORK GIANTS

Haven’t beaten winning team; Bengals, Pack next What’s gotten into Case Keenum? Where’s Gurley?

The ‘D’ is for real but where’s the offense?

NFL’s Jekyll & Hyde through first four weeks Winning but barely beating mediocre teams Do we find out who they really are on Sunday?

Struggling but recent history says they’ll be back 4 quarterbacks and none better than Fitzpatrick?

Handling Browns doesn’t quite move the needle Need OBJ more visible on the field, less off

Saints loss was about as ugly as it gets

Where’s Lovie Smith when they need him? No ‘D’ Kelly defends Gabbert, you have to wonder why Gase drew line in sand, now who does he bench?

Why is Mularkey better for Mariota than Whiz?

Caldwell might want to think about packing bags Sad but this is what Haslam asked for

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

1. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 2. DENVER BRONCOS 3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 4. GREEN BAY PACKERS 5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 6. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 7. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 8. CINCINNATI BENGALS 9. HOUSTON TEXANS 10. BALTIMORE RAVENS 11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 12. OAKLAND RAIDERS 13. ATLANTA FALCONS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

Julio Jones racked up 300 receiving yards against Carolina, but he faces a much tougher test against Denver in Week 5 AP PHOTO

Strength vs. strength as Falcons ‘O’ challenges Broncos ‘D’

By ARTHUR

T

ARKUSH

aarkush@profootballweekly.com

he Denver altitude might’ve offered more resistance against Julio Jones and Matt Ryan than the Panthers’ defense last week, when the pair went bananas on the reigning NFC champs in a statement blowout victory for the NFC South leaders.

But did the NFL’s hottest QB-WR connection save anything for the league’s most imposing pass defense (sorry, Vikings, but the Broncos’ Super Bowl ring is a pretty fair tiebreaker), much less the thin air?

Wade Phillips’ Broncos, who lead the NFL in

sacks (17) and opponent passer rating (61.3), welcome Atlanta, which paces football in total offense (478.8 yards per game) and scoring (38.0) – by a wide margin – making this game the epitome of strength versus strength and one of the early season’s most anticipated showdowns.

Prior to their total destruction of Carolina a week ago, the Falcons’ critics were quick to point out Atlanta’s Charmin-soft opening slate of defenses – Tampa Bay, Oakland and New Orleans – not to mention the fact Dan Quinn’s club got off to a 6-1 start last year before quickly proving it was a mirage.

Add to that Quinn’s own defensive issues and, while the Falcons appear flawed, this matchup, on

paper, looks like it’ll be a good one.

Coming off just the sixth 300-yard receiving day in NFL history, Jones has Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, not Bene Benwikere and James Bradberry, to contend with. Ryan and his much-improved O-line must counter Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and Co. But if the Falcons do what few other teams have done over the past year-plus – execute their high-octane offense at Mile High – is Trevor Siemian, who was knocked out of Week 4 with a sprained left AC joint, equipped for another shootout? He should have time to attack Atlanta’s secondary with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, both amid their own hot streaks.

Arguably the second-best game of the weekend,

7:30 p.m. Thursday, NBC

Raise your hand if you thought Drew Stanton could be responsible for saving the Cardinals’ season in Week Five.

WASHINGTON AT RAVENS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX

Washington back at .500 after escaping trap vs. Cleveland; Ravens’ ‘D’ back to earth, but West has run game headed north.

PATRIOTS AT BROWNS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Brady and Ninkovich return to give Pats just the firepower they need to survive a trip to the NFL’s last winless team.

EAGLES AT LIONS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX

Jim Schwartz returns to Detroit, where not much has changed since he left; Wentz epitomizes game-changer in Philly.

TITANS AT DOLPHINS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS

The honeymoon didn’t last long in Nashville; Adam Gase has to go back to drawing board with Tannehill.

TEXANS AT VIKINGS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS

With strong ‘D,’ even sans Watt, Osweiler seeking Bradford’s efficiency; Vikings look like NFC’s most complete team.

JETS AT STEELERS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Steelers offense might be invincible; Jets undoubtedly in big trouble.

BEARS AT COLTS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX

Bears have a QB controversy; Jim Irsay has a QB and no one to get the most out of Andrew Luck.

FALCONS AT BRONCOS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX

Alert traffic conrol: High-flying Julio and No. 1 scoring offense soaring toward Denver’s “No Fly Zone.”

BENGALS AT COWBOYS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS

After a four-game suspension, Tom Brady returns to action as the Patriots face the Browns Houston-Minnesota pairs two teams that have been knocked down, repeatedly, but remain standing. The Texans’ first taste in more than five years of life without J.J. Watt was a fourth quarter Will Fuller punt-return touchdown away from being awfully sour. But Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and a Watt-less pass rush did enough to survive against a bad Titans club at home.

Now, they’ll need a lot more from Brock Osweiler, who threw two more picks and struggled versus pressure, against the NFC’s only undefeated team and its fiercely physical ‘D.’ As the Texans try and adjust to the loss of their best player, they might want to take a few notes from the Vikings, who appear stronger than ever after losing their Hall-of-Fame running back, starting quarterback and left tackle.

Indeed, the Vikings have put on an exhibition in perseverance – aside from embattled kicker Blair Walsh. But Sam Bradford looks like he’s been in Norv Turner’s evolving offense for four years, not four weeks, and the Vikings appear for now to be the team to beat in the NFC. Their improving O-line, though, will be challenged by an outstanding Texans ‘D.’ And after locking down

AP PHOTO

Odell Beckham Jr. and Kelvin Benjamin, the Vikings’ corners can’t come up for air with Fuller and Hopkins looming.

With Deflategate finally behind him, Tom Brady returned to work this week with a simple message: “It is a lot of fun to be back,” he said.

We’d surmise the Browns disagree. Poor Cleveland, the NFL’s last winless team, is the first to officially welcome Brady back from his suspension. It comes at the right time, at least for New England, which was shut out at home for the first time since 1993, courtesy of the Bills. The Browns have at least been competitive the past two weeks behind Isaiah Crowell and Terrelle Pryor, but this one figures to get ugly.

SPEED RUSH: Roughly 30 miles separate Landover from Baltimore, where Washington visits the Ravens in an inner-state battle of teams seeking validation. … Don’t look now but the Rams are a win over Rex Ryan from 4-1 and opening up a twogame lead in the once-vaunted NFC West. … The latest test to Dak Prescott’s poise is the chippy Bengals. … The Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. imploding road show gets another primetime stage at Lambeau Field.

Reinforcements on way for Bengals’ 31st-ranked red-zone offense (Eifert) and Dallas’ 25th-ranked pass rush (Lawrence).

BILLS AT RAMS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Rex Ryan and Jeff Fisher doing their best to ensure the jokes are on us.

CHARGERS AT RAIDERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS

San Diego is 1-3 with a plus-13 point differential, while Oakland is 3-1 with a plus-2 point differential.

LIONS AT COLTS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX

It’s possible Indy will miss Vontae Davis more than Detroit will miss Calvin Johnson in this one.

GIANTS AT PACKERS 7:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC

OBJ’s lack of discipline rubbing off on G-Men; Pack emerge from early bye with offensive optimism, healthier ‘D.’

BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS 7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Jameis more than halfway to rookie INT total at quarter-pole; Carolina has tripled 2015 loss total.

TEAMS ON BYE

Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

CARDINALS AT 49ERS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

THIS WEEK’S GAMES AZ @ SF NE @ CLE PHI @ DET CHI @ IND TEN @ MIA WAS @ BAL HOU @ MIN NYJ @ PIT ATL @ DEN CIN @ DAL BUF @ LA SD @ OAK NYG @ GB TB @ CAR

Arizona 27, San Francisco 13 | Carson Palmer’s last stand

San Francisco 13 , Arizona 10 | Cards can’t find answers

New England 41, Cleveland 16 | Brady’s back, big boy time

New England 29, Cleveland 7 | Brady just shaking off the rust

Philadelphia 30, Detroit 20 | Lions just don’t have the horses

Philadelphia 31, Detroit 21 | Eagles won’t be tested here

Indianapolis 34, Chicago 27 | Colts just need it more

Chicago 26, Indianapolis 17 | Bears feeling their oats

Miami 20, Tennessee 17 | Gase is mad, Miami shows up

Miami 18 , Tennessee 7 | Dolphins in a real yawner

Baltimore 24, Washington 13 | Ravens D keeps getting better

Washington 17, Baltimore 14 | Ravens just can’t score

Minnesota 16 , Houston 13 | Good old fashioned slugfest

Minnesota 17 , Houston 14 | Looks like a heavyweight bout

Pittsburgh 31, N.Y. Jets 16 | Revis limping, Steelers routing

Pittsburgh 15 , N.Y. Jets 10 | Steelers struggle but find way

Denver 27, Atlanta 20 | Falcs in over their heads here

Denver 32 , Atlanta 29 | Falcs coming, Broncs champs

Cincinnati 30, Dallas 17 | ‘Boys try huge step up in class

Cincinnati 32, Dallas 24 | Holes in Dallas D costly

Los Angeles 23, Buffalo 13 | Bills take long ride for beating

Buffalo 10, Los Angeles 7 | Sets offense back 100 years

Oakland 38, San Diego 27 | Raiders in another shootout

Oakland 21 , San Diego 20 | Raiders keep finding a way

Green Bay 30, N.Y. Giants 20 | Pack always dangerous off bye

Green Bay 35 , N.Y. Giants 20 | Pack is back, hungry

Carolina 34, Tampa Bay 20 | Bucs just what Dr. ordered Car

Carolina 31 , Tampa Bay 10 | Bounce back game for Panthers

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

C

hargers owner Dean Spanos has the weight of the entire city of San Diego and Chargers fans everywhere on his shoulders at the moment and, The Way We Hear It, no good answers as to what to do about it.

Unlike Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who couldn’t wait to ditch his fans and the city of St. Louis to put down roots in Los Angeles, Spanos has done everything humanly possible to be loyal to the fans of San Diego and avoid joining Kroenke as his tenant in Tinseltown.

On Nov. 8, San Diegans will go to the polls to vote yay or nay on Proposition C to provide $1.2 billion in taxpayer dollars to build a new multi-use stadi-

AP PHOTO

Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy has seen his team lose three times after holding the lead with just five minutes left in the game um in downtown San Diego and expanded convention facilities.

With the odds stacked heavily against the vote succeeding, Spanos has spent over $5 million of his family’s money campaigning for votes and ex-

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

Chargers’ McCoy between a rock and a hard place

pects to spend still significantly more in the coming weeks.

The problem at the moment, however, is his football team is breaking its fans’ hearts almost every Sunday. It reached a new low in Week 4 with two fumbles inside its own 31-yard line in the final seven minutes to blow a 13-point lead for the Chargers third loss in four weeks.

All three losses this year have come after the Chargers led with just five minutes remaining in the game.

Reviewing these games, you’ll find that head coach Mike McCoy hasn’t really made any tough calls or controversial decisions to contribute to these meltdowns, but as the head coach, he is still responsible for everything his players do.

McCoy was actually thought to be a dead man walking at the end of last season after going 4-12 with nine of the 12 losses by one score or less, but Spanos decided the glass was still half full on the heels of a 9-7 2014 slate and instead extended McCoy’s contract.

The problem now is this year’s troubles appear to be part of a trend. McCoy’s Chargers are 3-12 in games decided by eight points or less, have lost 15 of their past 20 and appear to be looking for new ways to lose.

There is growing pressure on Spanos to make a change, but according to our sources he has no idea how Chargers fans will react if he does and what impact it might have on the stadium vote.

Then there is the issue of general manager Tom Telesco, who was hired as one of the youngest GMs in the league following the 2012 season and made

Keenan Allen and running back Danny Whitehead – for the season to injuries.

There is not enough young talent in the pipeline to replace them.

Should Spanos stick with McCoy and he gets the Chargers turned and winning over the next five weeks leading up to the vote, it could have a very positive impact.

Of course, a coaching change that would result in a winning streak could also really help encourage voters to support the new stadium.

But should Spanos either stick with McCoy or make a change and the Chargers continue to lose, his dream of keeping the Chargers in San Diego could be toast.

Normally a coach on the bubble can have some impact on his own future, but McCoy’s chances of keeping his job are most likely being driven by circumstances well beyond his control, and Spanos and his son John, who oversees the football operations, are left to hope their current predicament is not a no-win situation.

Heat on in the ‘Big Apple?’

N

FL observers would have to be deaf, dumb and blind to have missed the cold shoulder Tom Coughlin offered Giants owner John Mara after his firing following the 2015 season. The reasons why are starting to leak out of the Giants’ front office.

Coughlin has been around too long, is too smart and has been too successful to not have known he was on the chopping block and that his firing – we know, it was reported as a mutual separation – was justified and perhaps even necessary.

Following 7-9, 6-10 and 6-10 seasons from 2013 on, and with his 70th birthday approaching this past August, Coughlin knew his time had come and it was jus-

us r io o ! ic s f l e ck h � D a t Sn al He

tified.

What we’re hearing now, however, is that at least part of what Coughlin was miffed about was his having to take the fall while general manager Jerry Reese, who was facing his own free agency and drafting slumps, not only wasn’t taking the fall with him, but was sticking around to name his replacement.

Dating back to the 2012 draft, the only significant additions the Giants added were Justin Pugh and Johnathan Hankins in 2013, Odell Beckham Jr. and Weston Richburg in 2014 and Ereck Flowers, Landon Collins and Bobby Hart in 2015.

With no help from 2012 and just seven meaningful contributors from 2013

and Shane Vereen than what they’ve gotten.

Is it fair Coughlin got the axe while Reese was brought back to through 2015, and OBJ the only break the bank in free agency this star power, it’s easy to see why it year on players like Olivier Verwas getting harder and harder for non, Damon Harrison and Janoris Coughlin to win.

Jenkins?

Reese’s free agency classes Jerry Reese We’re hearing Coughlin didn’t from 2012 through 2015 were think so, and we’re also hearing even less productive, yielding Martellus now that Reese’s retention came with a Bennett for one season in 2012 and Cullen caveat: “Fix this mess fast or you’re next.”

Reese’s 2016 draft class got solid early Jenkins in 2013 before Reese went wild and brought in 25 free agents in 2014 with grades for value, and certainly Vernon, the best the group had to offer turning out Harrison and Jenkins all possess star powto be Rashad Jennings, Jon Beason, Geoff er, but that doesn’t have any impact on Reese’s job security in New York.

Schwartz and Josh Brown.

The Way We Hear It, if the Giants aren’t In 2015, we’re sure Reese and Coughlin hoped for a lot more from Marshall New- at the very least serious playoff contenders house, Dwayne Harris, Jonathan Casillas, this season, they could be in the market Kenrick Ellis, J.T. Thomas, George Selvie for a new GM.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

McCoy his first hire as head coach.

Telesco also received a contract extension following the 2015 season and is still a respected talent evaluator around the NFL, even if his last two drafts have yielded little production to date.

Part of the Chargers’ problem is, after a preseason-long holdout, No. 3 overall draft choice Joey Bosa really hasn’t contributed yet and they’ve lost their two best offensive players other than quarterback Philip Rivers – wide receiver

ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |

Time to unload Todd Gurley if you haven’t already

By J.C.

spectable. The 49ers stink on both sides of the ball.

San Fran’s 30th-ranked offense has been especially wretched. Is this the week the 49ers turn to Colin Kaepernick at QB? Who cares?

WORTH A LOOK: Carlos Hyde LAST RESORT: Garrett Celek STAY AWAY: Blaine Gabbert, Jeremy Kerley, Torrey Smith, Phil Dawson, 49ers D/ST

TALON

W

Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com

hat is 3-1, sits atop the NFC West, and has scored a grand total of 63 points in four weeks?

Your 2016 Los Angeles Rams … we’re still not buying them on either side of the ball.

Ranked dead last in offense and 23rd in defense, this undisciplined team has somehow managed to defeat Arizona and Seattle.

L.A. is too poorly coached and too undermanned on offense to keep winning. Todd Gurley owners should be open to trade offers while the second-year RB still (possibly) has some value left.

And it’s probably time to adjust our expectations of Arizona’s offense and Carolina’s defense.

Through four games, neither unit seems anywhere close to its level of play in 2015. Carolina is no longer a defense to steer clear of, and Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd will move down fantasy boards, especially if Carson Palmer (concussion) misses much time. Even with a healthy Palmer, the Cards look out of sync.

On to Week 5 …

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT New England Patriots

OPPONENT: AT CLEVELAND BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON It’s rare to see a fantasy matchup with this much obvious upside. The Browns are clearly the worst team in the league and the Patriots not only get Tom Brady back, they will be looking to make a statement after getting shut out for the first time since 1993. Maybe this is too good to be true, the proverbial “trap game.” Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth – start your Pats. Gronk played more snaps last week and is getting closer to 100 percent.

We’re going to hold off, for now, on calling him a “must start.” Martellus Bennett will continue to get targets with Brady under center.

MUST START: Brady, Stephen Gostkowski SOLID PLAY: LeGarrette Blount, Julian Edelman, Gronkowski, Patriots D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Chris Hogan, Bennett LAST RESORT: James White, Danny Amendola

Philadelphia Eagles

OPPONENT: AT DETROIT LIONS, SUNDAY, NOON The Lions just gave up 408 yards of offense to a Bears unit that had previously been averaging 310. Detroit’s defense is 25th in yards allowed and is dealing with significant injuries. Philadelphia counters with an efficient offense that will be well rested after a bye. Zach Ertz returns from injury and should see a good number of targets.

MUST START: Ertz* SOLID PLAY: Jordan Matthews, Eagles D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Carson Wentz, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews*, Caleb Sturgis LAST RESORT: Wendell Smallwood, Nelson Agholor

Oakland Raiders

OPPONENT: VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, SUNDAY, 3:25 PM This contest features the highest over/under of the week (50) and is a favorable fantasy matchup for both teams. San Diego is much better against the

Houston Texans

AP PHOTO

Todd Gurley

run (7th) than against the pass (27th). That’s great news for owners of Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree. Cooper, in general, has been quiet this season. Crabtree has more receptions (26 to 20) and TDs (4 to 0). Cooper will go off one of these weeks – and this week is as good a bet as any.

MUST START: Carr SOLID PLAY: Latavius Murray, Cooper, Crabtree, Sebastian Janikowski WORTH A LOOK: Clive Walford LAST RESORT: DeAndre Washington, Seth Roberts STAY AWAY: Raiders D/ST

Green Bay Packers

OPPONENT: VS NEW YORK GIANTS, SUNDAY, 7:30 PM Fantasy owners will have to decide if the Packers currently being ranked 29th in offense is an ominous sign of things to come, or simply a threegame anomaly. The Giants (11th in fewest yards allowed) have played solid defense, but Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will challenge their mediocre secondary.

MUST START: Rodgers, Nelson SOLID PLAY: Eddie Lacy, Cobb, Mason Crosby WORTH A LOOK: Packers D/ST LAST RESORT: Davante Adams, Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers

ALSO CONSIDER Pittsburgh Steelers

OPPONENT: VS NEW YORK JETS, SUNDAY, NOON Thus far, the Jets’ defense has been decidedly middle of the road. After delivering a clunker in Week 3, Pittsburgh’s offense erupted against Kansas City.

Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown are must starts.

Denver Broncos

OPPONENT: VS ATLANTA FALCONS, SUNDAY, 3:05 PM The Falcons are clearly better than we expected … on offense. Their 30th-ranked defense is still rather porous and Denver should score some points in this one. Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is likely to start at QB. Demaryius Thomas owners can breathe a sigh of relief – it looks like he’s back to being a legitimate fantasy WR1.

MATCHUPS TO AVOID San Francisco 49ers

OPPONENT: VS ARIZONA CARDINALS, THURSDAY, 7:25 PM Arizona has not been particularly productive on offense, but its 8th-ranked defense has been re-

OPPONENT: AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS, SUNDAY, NOON Minnesota’s defense is seventh in yards allowed and second in points allowed. Opponents are averaging just 12.5 ppg against the Vikes. That’s impressive enough on the surface, but considering the competition, it’s a remarkable feat. During Weeks 2 through 4, Minnesota faced Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning, respectively.

Brock Osweiler will be scaring no one wearing purple.

It’s hard to get too excited about any Texan in this game. The Vikings are proficient against the run (8th) and the pass (9th). Houston has a solid D/ ST, but Minnesota is so conservative on offense, it’s hard to see the Texans generating any defensive scoring plays. We’re calling Lamar Miller a solid play, but this matchup is well below average.

Hopkins owners in smaller leagues may want to look elsewhere. The Vikings held Odell Beckham to a career-low three catches for 23 yards.

SOLID PLAY: Miller WORTH A LOOK: Hopkins, Will Fuller, Texans D/ ST LAST RESORT: Ryan Griffin STAY AWAY: Osweiler, Nick Novak

Los Angeles Rams

OPPONENT: VS BUFFALO BILLS, SUNDAY, 3:25 PM Hovering around 40, this game features a season-low over/under. It’s hard to get excited about fantasy options on either team. Buffalo is allowing a lower-than-average 3.6 yards per carry, which could mean another dud for Todd Gurley. You probably have to play him, but yards are going to be hard to come by.

SOLID PLAY: Gurley WORTH A LOOK: Rams D/ST LAST RESORT: Tavon Austin* STAY AWAY: Case Keenum, Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, Lance Kendricks, Greg Zuerlein

ALSO BEWARE Washington

OPPONENT: AT BALTIMORE RAVENS, SUNDAY, NOON Washington has been up and down on offense.

They are more likely to be down against a very good defense. The Ravens are yielding a league-fewest 256 yards per game.

Buffalo Bills

OPPONENT: AT LOS ANGELES RAMS, SUNDAY, 3:25 PM This should be an offensive game – it will most likely offend any fans hoping to see touchdowns.

The Rams’ defense (23rd in yards allowed) is overrated, but – outside of LeSean McCoy – the Bills don’t offer much in the way of fantasy options.

* — Check injury status

By JOHN

SAHLY

E

jsahly@shawmedia.com

arly on in the fantasy football season is one of the more volatile times when it comes to roster construction. The reason is simple: We don’t have enough data yet to know who these teams are.

And while we’re still not there yet, four weeks is enough time and enough of a sample size that we can begin to get away from our reliance on 2015 data.

It’s old, and starting to bust in certain places.

So, after four weeks, what can we reasonably say about good opportunities for your fantasy football team, and how can we use that data with some certainty?

Here are a couple of situations I feel confident about after four weeks:

1) The Lions still can’t defend tight ends My colleague Arthur Arkush wrote about this in detail, but it’s worth pointing out again. The Lions are historically bad against tight ends, taking over from last year’s Raiders and Saints debacles against the position.

Injuries to the linebacking corps and a reliance on blitzing to pressure the quarterback have left tight ends wide open against the Lions, with no signs of slowing down.

Detroit has allowed six (six!) touchdowns to tight ends through four games. Tight ends have averaged six receptions for 64 yards and 1.5 touchdowns a game.

But you know who has been even worse? The Falcons, who have given up five touchdowns and an average of 85 yards a game to tight ends. Atlanta gets Denver and a banged-up Virgil Green this week, so I’m still looking

at the returning Zach Ertz, but look for Jimmy Graham to potentially be in a monster spot in Week 6 against the Falcons.

2) The Packers, Jets, Titans are funnel defenses So let’s define funnel defense first: A defense that is great against the run, but weak against the pass. In other words, these defenses are so good at stopping the run, that offenses are forced to go to the air, where they find success because those defenses don’t have the personnel to stop both the run and the pass.

Green Bay has especially proven that to be true in the first month, allowing just 128 rushing yards and one touchdown in three games. Meanwhile, the Packers give up an average of 227 yards to receivers, and have allowed four touchdowns on just 42 receptions.

That’s why in DFS for Week 4, I’m not afraid to target Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr., despite their struggles. Beckham especially won’t be popular after another meltdown on national TV, which makes him a great contrarian option this week.

As for the Jets, their fearsome front seven has forced teams to go the air, where Darrelle Revis and company have been roasted for 797 yards on just 66 catches by receivers. Antonio Brown is expensive, but don’t be afraid of a matchup with Revis. Sammie Coates makes a great sleeper play this week, too.

The Titans have been bad and trailing, so they’re seeing a lot of rushing attempts against them. But they aren’t allowing RBs into the end zone, with just one TD allowed on the ground. Look to that burnable secondary for fantasy goodness.

AP PHOTO

Fantasy owners should stick with Odell Beckham Jr. even tough he has yet to score a touchdown this season

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

DFS: Four weeks in, what do we know? And how can we use it?

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016 Myles Garrett

AP PHOTO

Derek Barnett

AP PHOTO

SEC showdown highlights several NFL prospects

W

hile the SEC may be a bit overrated in the various polls, it is easily the strongest football conference from top to bottom. Many of the schools are loaded with future NFL players. Among those schools are Tennessee and Texas A&M, who meet this week in College Station, Texas.

Texas A&M has the country’s premier pass rusher in Myles Garrett, a true junior who most likely will enter the NFL Draft after this season. If the draft were held tomorrow, Garrett would most likely be the first non-quarterback selected.

Garrett has all the tools that NFL clubs look for in a pass rusher. He is tall with length, has very good speed and athleticism, and great natural strength and power. In four games, Garrett has three sacks and five tackles for loss. Look for him to hit double digits in sacks by the time the season ends.

Tennessee has a good pass rusher

the required height and themselves. True junior Derek Barnett has 23 tolength to go along with tal tackles, including 8.5 good ball skills. Outside tackles for loss and 4.0 linebacker/defensive sacks. At about 6-3, 265 end Corey Vereen is a down-the-road type with pounds, he has all the upside. tools. He can play the run For Texas A&M, opand rush the passer. posite Garrett is senior Other players to watch Daeshon Hall. At 6-5, at Tennessee include Joshua 260 pounds, Hall can quarterback Dobbs, who is athletGREG GABRIEL play defensive end in a ic, can make plays with 4-3 or play on his feet at @greggabe his feet and is a betOLB in a 3-4. He has had ter-than-average passer. He is more a producitve year to date with 22 total tackles, 3.0 sacks and 8.5 tackles of a developmental type who will for loss. go in the mid-to-late rounds. Running back Jalen Hurd is big and At linebacker, A&M has an interesting player in Shaan Washingpowerful with good production. He ton. He is big and athletic with inis also a very reliable receiver out stincts. Going into this game, he is of the backfield. Junior receiver Josh Malone is tall and athletic. He the Aggies’ top tackler with 38 total would be better off staying in school tackles. A corner to watch is junior Nick Harvey. Harvey doesn’t have another year.

On defense, besides Barnett, one any interecptions but he has four of the best prospects is corner Campass breakups and 31 total tackles. eron Sutton, who is out right now Another defensive back to keep an with an ankle injury. Sutton has eye on is Armani Watts. As a soph-

omore last year, Watts led A&M in tackles with 123 total.

One of the interesting players on offense is junior receiver Ricky SealJones, who at 6-5, 240 pounds may well be a move tight end at the next level. His size and speed can create matchup problems for any defense.

This week offers two other games between Top 25 teams. No. 23 Florida State with two losses travels to Miami to play the 10thranked Hurricanes while top-ranked Alabama travels to No. 16 Arkansas.

Two juniors who will most likely enter the draft will be featured in the Brad Kaaya Florida State-Miami game – Miami QB Brad Kaaya and Florida State RB Dalvin Cook.

Arkansas has an interesting tight end in Jeremy Sprinkle. Like most spread formation tight ends, Sprinkle is not a top blocker, but he is a serious threat as a receiver.

arson Palmer is unlikely to play and C Drew Stanton looked awful filling in last week. Cam Newton is also dealing with a concussion. If Cam can’t go, slot Derek Anderson at No. 13. Trevor Siemian should play, but Denver won’t lose much, if anything, if Paxton Lynch steps in.

1. Tom Brady, Patriots @ Browns 2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Giants 3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Jets 4. Philip Rivers, Chargers @ Raiders 5. Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Chargers 6. Andrew Luck, Colts vs. Bears 7. Cam Newton*, Panthers vs. Bucs 8. Andy Dalton, Bengals @ Cowboys 9. Eli Manning, Giants @ Packers 10. Matt Ryan, Falcons @ Broncos 11. Carson Wentz, Eagles @ Lions 12. Joe Flacco, Ravens vs. Washington 13. Matthew Stafford, Lions vs. Eagles 14. Trevor Siemian*, Broncos vs. Falcons 15. Kirk Cousins, Washington @ Ravens 16. Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Bengals 17. Jameis Winston, Bucs @ Panthers 18. Brian Hoyer, Bears @ Colts 19. Tyrod Taylor, Bills @ Rams 20. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins vs. Titans

35. Chris Hogan, Patriots @ Browns 36. Phillip Dorsett, Colts vs. Bears

TIGHT ENDS

Tom Brady

AP PHOTO

Antonio Brown

AP PHOTO

RUNNING BACKS

As the season wears on, dependable RBs are harder to find. Look for Jordan Howard to have another productive week against a vulnerable Indy defense.

1. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers vs. Jets 2. David Johnson, Cardinals @ 49ers 3. DeMarco Murray, Titans @ Dolphins 4. Jordan Howard, Bears @ Colts 5. C.J. Anderson, Broncos vs. Falcons 6. LeSean McCoy, Bills @ Rams 7. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. Bengals 8. Jeremy Hill, Bengals @ Cowboys 9. Melvin Gordon, Chargers @ Raiders 10. Todd Gurley, Rams @ Bills 11. Lamar Miller, Texans @ Vikings 12. Eddie Lacy, Packers vs. Giants 13. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots @ Browns 14. Carlos Hyde, 49ers vs. Cardinals 15. Devonta Freeman, Falcons @ Broncos 16. Matt Forte, Jets @ Steelers 17. Isaiah Crowell, Browns vs. Patriots 18. Frank Gore, Colts vs. Bears 19. Latavius Murray, Raiders vs. Chargers 20. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings vs. Texans 21. Matt Jones, Washington @ Ravens 22. Terrance West, Ravens vs. Washington 23. Charles Sims, Bucs @ Panthers 24. Theo Riddick, Lions vs. Eagles 25. Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers vs. Bucs 26. Ryan Mathews, Eagles @ Lions 27. Tevin Coleman, Falcons @ Broncos 28. Giovani Bernard, Bengals @ Cowboys 29. Wendell Smallwood, Eagles @ Lions 30. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins vs. Titans 31. Fozzy Whitaker, Panthers vs. Bucs 32. DeAndre Washington, Raiders vs. Chargers 33. Orleans Darkwa Giants @ Packers

Despite, Brady’s return, we’re reluctant to return Gronk to the top of the board until we see him catch some passes. Zach Ertz returns this week and could be productive depending on snap counts. If Hunter Henry is available in your league, grab him.

1. Jordan Reed, Washington @ Ravens 2. Greg Olsen, Panthers vs. Bucs 3. Hunter Henry, Chargers @ Raiders 4. Delanie Walker, Titans @ Dolphins 5. Zach Miller, Bears @ Colts 6. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings vs. Texans 7. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots @ Browns 8. Zach Ertz*, Eagles @ Lions 9. Gary Barnidge, Browns vs. Patriots 10. Martellus Bennett, Patriots vs. Browns 11. Cameron Brate, Bucs @ Panthers 12. Eric Ebron*, Lions vs. Eagles 13. Dennis Pitta, Ravens vs. Washington 14. Jason Witten, Cowboys vs. Bengals 15. Clive Walford, Raiders vs. Chargers 16. Dwayne Allen, Colts vs. Bears 17. Tyler Eifert*, Bengals @ Cowboys 18. Jacob Tamme, Falcons @ Broncos 19. Jesse James, Steelers vs. Jets 20. Charles Clay, Bills @ Rams

PLACEKICKERS

Jordan Reed

AP PHOTO

34. Derrick Henry, Titans @ Dolphins 35. Duke Johnson, Browns vs. Patriots 36. DeAngelo Williams, Steelers vs. Jets

WIDE RECEIVERS

This is a great week to play your Chargers, Raiders, Broncos and Steelers. The loss of Palmer will impact the value of Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd. Kelvin Benjamin should be OK even if Derek Anderson has to play.

1. Antonio Brown, Steelers vs. Jets 2. A.J. Green, Bengals @ Cowboys 3. Jordy Nelson, Packers vs. Giants 4. Mike Evans, Bucs @ Panthers 5. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos vs. Falcons 6. T.Y. Hilton, Colts vs. Bears 7. Alshon Jeffery, Bears @ Colts 8. Julio Jones, Falcons @ Broncos 9. Odell Beckham, Giants @ Packers 10. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers vs. Bucs 11. Stefon Diggs, Vikings vs. Texans 12. Brandon Marshall, Jets @ Steelers

Stephen Gostkowski

AP PHOTO

13. Amari Cooper, Raiders vs. Chargers 14. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans @ Vikings 15. Marvin Jones, Lions vs. Steelers 16. Michael Crabtree, Raiders vs. Chargers 17. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos vs. Falcons 18. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins vs. Titans 19. Jordan Matthews, Eagles @ Lions 20. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals @ 49ers 21. Julian Edelman, Patriots @ Browns 22. Travis Benjamin, Chargers @ Raiders 23. Terrelle Pryor, Browns @ Patriots 24. Quincy Enunwa, Jets @ Steelers 25. Sterling Shepard, Giants @ Packers 26. Steve Smith, Ravens vs. Washington 27. Will Fuller, Texans @ Vikings 28. DeSean Jackson, Washington @ Ravens 29. DeVante Parker, Dolphins vs. Titans 30. Cole Beasley, Cowboys vs. Bengals 31. Randall Cobb, Packers vs. Giants 32. Tyrell Williams, Chargers @ Raiders 33. Mike Wallace, Ravens vs. Washington 34. Michael Floyd, Cardinals @ 49ers

1.

Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots @ Browns 2. Brandon McManus, Broncos vs. Falcons 3. Justin Tucker, Ravens vs. Washington 4. Adam Vinatieri, Colts vs. Bears 5. Mason Crosby, Packers vs. Giants 6. Mike Nugent Bengals @ Cowboys 7. Graham Gano, Panthers vs. Bucs 8. Josh Lambo, Chargers @ Raiders 9. Dan Bailey, Cowboys vs. Bengals 10. Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals @ 49ers 11. Caleb Sturgis, Eagles @ Lions 12. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders vs. Chargers 13. Chris Boswell, Steelers vs. Jets 14. Blair Walsh, Vikings vs. Texans 15. Connor Barth, Bears @ Colts

PLACEKICKERS

1. Vikings vs. Texans 2. Patriots @ Browns 3. Cardinals @ 49ers 4. Broncos vs. Falcons 5. Steelers vs. Jets 6. Ravens vs. Washington 7. Eagles @ Lions 8. Bills @ Rams 9. Packers vs. Giants 10. Bengals @ Cowboys 11. Panthers vs. Bucs 12. Rams vs. Bills 13. Texans vs. Vikings 14. Titans vs. Dolphins 15. Bills @ Rams *Check injury status

TEAMS ON BYE

Seahawks, Saints, Jaguars, Chiefs

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

QUARTERBACKS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

What’s up with the 1-3 Panthers and Cardinals?

KEVIN FISHBAIN nals fan. Two of the Panthers’ losses are against the undefeated Broncos and Vikings, among the elite teams in their respective conferences. And while Arizona’s first loss was to the Patriots, their last two came at the hands of the mediocre Bills and at home vs. the offensive-starved Rams.

And let’s face it, if Palmer misses a significant amount of time, well, let’s just say that Drew Stanton isn’t keeping any NFL defensive coordinators up at night.

Fishbain: It’s amazing how much confidence Arizona has in Stanton — and Derek Anderson actually looked alright (albeit, against a porous Atlanta defense) when he had to

DAN McCALEB

sub in for Newton in a pinch on Sunday. The Cardinals’ defense is still good, right? And David Johnson has played well, but what really makes me more concerned for our readers in the desert is Arizona’s division. They have yet to play the Seahakws, have another game at the Rams, have to play in Minnesota and in Atlanta, too. Bruce Arians has to get things turned around in a hurry. My question for the Panthers — was last week’s performance by the ‘D’ more about its opponent, or do the Panthers miss Josh Norman?

McCaleb: Interesting question, Kevin, one I’ll have to answer with a ‘yes’ and a

‘yes.’ I don’t think there’s any doubt the Panthers miss Josh Norman. At the same time, that Falcons’ offense is on fire. I had the opportunity to draft Julio Jones No. 3 overall in my fantasy draft. I went with Todd Gurley instead. But that’s a whole other column.

We’ll know more about the Atlanta offense after its game this weekend at the Broncos.

I’m betting the Panthers get their ‘D’ settled this weekend vs. Tampa Bay. Then they travel to the Big Easy for a matchup with Drew Brees and the Saints. Those two games are as close to must-wins as you can get this early in the season. What do you think?

Fishbain: Yes, the Panthers

have to get those wins, but their schedule appears much more favorable than Arizona’s, even with tough back-toback road games in Oakland and Seattle. What’s interesting is these two teams will play against each other in Charlotte on Oct. 30, a Sunday afternoon tilt and rematch of last year’s NFC title game. It’s clear that the Cardinals have to take care of business in San Francisco on Thursday night and against the Jets next Monday. It’s still possible for one if not both of these teams to rally to make the playoffs.

There’s too much talent on both rosters. Do you see it happening?

McCaleb: I see the Panthers still having a real good shot to make the playoffs. For the Cardinals to do it, Palmer has to get healthy quick and he might even need to discover the fountain of youth. This is the NFL, though, where there’s plenty of mediocrity to go around. For all I know, the Panthers will be facing the Cardinals again in the NFC title game.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

P

ro Football Weekly’s Kevin Fishbain and Dan McCaleb discuss the surprising 1-3 starts by last season’s NFC Championship Game contenders, the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals.

Fishbain: We’re through the first quarter of the season, Dan, and the two NFC favorites are both 1-3 — the Panthers and the Cardinals. Carolina’s defense looked abysmal against the Falcons, though no one has been able to stop Atlanta in the first month.

And then the Cardinals have major issues at quarterback, where Carson Palmer is dealing with a concussion and maybe lingering effects from last year’s playoff disaster. He has six touchdowns and five interceptions. Which team’s fan base should be more concerned?

McCaleb: Neither team’s fan base should be feeling good right now, Kevin, but pressed to pick one, I’d be more concerned as a Cardi-

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016

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