Pftt 2016 09 29

Patriots, Ravens, Vikings look to stay unbeaten PG. 5 SINCE 1967

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

Marcus Peters and the Chiefs face off against Antonio Brown and the Steelers in this week’s

PLUS: Way We Hear It • Predictions • Fantasy Football

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

NFL TV ratings are down, but should it be a major concern?

T

here is no bigger event or moneymaker on network television than the NFL in prime time, but three weeks into the 2016 season there are early reports that could be changing.

Total viewers for the Sunday afternoon national broadcast of Giants-Cowboys were actually up 18 percent Week One, but were down 21 percent Week Two and down one percent in Week Three.

Sunday night viewership was down 14 percent Weeks One and Two and seven percent in Week Three, and Monday night viewership was down four percent for the early game in Week One and down three percent Week Two. There are several potential answers as to why and we should note that while some ratings were also down year over year the first three weeks of 2014 and 2015, viewership for those total seasons had still increased by year’s end.

But why is 2016 off to such a slow start?

Certainly there are The first possibility fans who are unhappy, is matchups. The Sunday night opener with perhaps even outraged the Tom Brady-less by the actions of Colin Patriots visiting ArKaepernick, Eric Reid, izona would seem to Jeremy Lane, Brandon be a better draw than Marshall and others.

2015’s Giants at Dallas But the suggestion offering, but the comthey are hurting TV bined New York and ratings is silly.

Dallas markets are How many fans tune much larger than Bosin to enjoy the national ton and Phoenix. anthem? Most network The Week Two broadcasts don’t even matchup of Minneshow it, or didn’t until HUB ARKUSH sota and Green Bay the protests began. harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com was promising, but it Large numbers of @Hub_Arkush didn’t offer the nationfans may be upset with al appeal of 2015’s NFC Title rematch the small percentage of players staging protests, but they aren’t giving up between Green Bay and Seattle. their favorite sport, TV show and pasAt the end of the day, it is unlikely time because of it. the matchups are the difference.

It is possible that a growing number A recent article from Forbes staff of fans have tired of the damage comwriter Mike Ozanian offered a different explanation. missioner Roger Goodell and the NFL “My opinion: Fans are ticked about owners have done to the integrity of the players protesting the national anthe game with their gross over-reachthem.” es in player discipline and even more

Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.

gross failure to recognize the horrors of domestic abuse and other select player behaviors?

Perhaps fans are increasingly turned off to the number of players using illegal drugs to create artificial advantages and by doing so, have become horrible role models to our youth?

I’m certain some fans are tuning out because of the recently discovered horrific dangers it presents due to concussions and traumatic brain injuries, but there is public opinion polling and data to suggest that number is growing but insignificant so far.

I believe the most likely answer is one nobody seems to be talking about, but regardless of your political affiliation, we can all agree we’ve never seen a more bizarre presidential election season and I think the craziness and sensationalism is probably pulling some audience from all entertainment vehicles as we all watch one of the scariest comedies of all time.

What I don’t believe is that the NFL really has anything to worry about, at least not yet.

Can Jamie Collins play QB? He does everything else

Luck and Hilton wouldn’t let Colts drop to 0-3

Showing championship caliber ‘D’ and mental toughness

Could easily be 3-0 but emotional losses taxing

Siemian the reason for victory, not roadblock, Sunday

New offensive coach, same old defensive issues

That’s more like it for Aaron Rodgers and offense

For one week at least, Rex’s decision paid off

Credit rookie QB, but also rookie coach, his great staff

Credit Cousins for delivering with distractions swirling

QBs should stop throwing Marcus Peters’ way Le’Veon Bell back at right time after dud in Philly

‘D’ great as always but Russell Wilson injuries mounting

Can get three straight in division but must protect Cam Mini bye much needed for Watt, Miller and morale

Credit ‘D’ for being stout while offense finds footing

Run game showed a pulse in tough home opener OBJ’s outbursts a detriment to himself, team in bad loss

us r io o ! ic s f l e ck h � D a t Sn al He

20. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 21. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 22. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23. BUFFALO BILLS 24. WASHINGTON 25. MIAMI DOLPHINS 26. TENNESSEE TITANS 27. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 28. DETROIT LIONS 29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 30. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 31. CHICAGO BEARS 32. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Deserved to lose against worst team in football

In his debut, rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett led the Patriots over the Texans last Thursday

14. ARIZONA CARDINALS 15. OAKLAND RAIDERS 16. NEW YORK JETS 17. ATLANTA FALCONS 18. DALLAS COWBOYS 19. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Carson Palmer’s playoff hangover a cause for concern

Defense played better but stopping the run still a problem

Usually good enough to get you beat, Fitz awful in K.C.

45 points with little help from Julio bodes well for offense

30 carries, 140 yards — that’s the Zeke we remember Big offensive plays great but need to get Gurley going

Strong run game means little if Mariota doesn’t progress

Call to bullpen for Kap could come this week

Stafford-to-Jones is real but so are defensive deficiencies

High-priced ‘D’ finally delivers but Bortles couldn’t

‘D’ predictably bad but Brees’ struggles surprising

0-3 with much bigger tests for shorthanded ‘D’ coming

What other positions can Terrelle Pryor play?

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3. DENVER BRONCOS 4. GREEN BAY PACKERS 5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 6. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 7. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9. CAROLINA PANTHERS 10. HOUSTON TEXANS 11. BALTIMORE RAVENS 12. CINCINNATI BENGALS 13. NEW YORK GIANTS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 Luke Kuechly had a game-high 13 tackles against the Vikings

AP PHOTO

Matt Ryan leads the NFL this season with a 119.0 passer rating

AP PHOTO

Panthers and Falcons to meet in NFC South showdown

By ARTHUR

T

ARKUSH

aarkush@profootballweekly.com

heir 45-32 shootout victory in New Orleans on Monday Night Football is unlikely to be the last time this season the Falcons require a fireworks display to cover up the defense. Nonetheless, that they did it with Julio Jones barely leaving an impact (one catch for 16 yards) bodes well for a more diversified offense and dialed-in quarterback in Matt Ryan.

Whether Carolina loses any more games in which it surrenders 211 net yards and one offensive touchdown depends on how many teams can

generate the Vikings’ and Broncos’ kryptonite-level of pass rush to ground Superman.

It seems likely Dan Quinn’s Falcons aren’t one of those teams, nor is it anticipated Carolina can hold down the NFL’s top scoring offense the way it did Minnesota.

Thus, this NFC South tilt could serve as a strong early-season barometer for both clubs. Even with their explosive two-headed backfield carving out chunks behind a much improved O-line and quarterback, the Falcons will fly namely under the radar until the NFL’s most anemic pass rush becomes at least respectable. Dwight Freeney can still close, but it’s time for Vic Beasley to parlay

his speed into success. A susceptible Carolina offensive line on the road and battered Cam Newton should present opportunities.

The Panthers have a chance to get well with three straight division games, albeit only one at home, but they must be starting to experience déjà vu after a pair of punishing losses, particularly for the reigning MVP, after the way last season ended.

— Coming off their most pedestrian offensive performance in more than two years, the Steelers get their bellcow back from suspension … and a visit from Marcus Peters and the Chiefs’ band of thieves. If Antonio Brown is the best wideout in the game, how much longer before Peters is con-

Thursday, CBS

One of these teams will be .500, the other staring at a huge division deficit. Picture Burfict for Cincinnati.

COLTS AT JAGUARS Sunday, CBS (LONDON)

Gus Bradley might need a season-saver similar to Colts’ Week Three victory to avoid being left across pond.

PANTHERS AT FALCONS Sunday, FOX

The Falcons might know the recipe to beat Cam but they lack the ingredients; how will Carolina respond to 1-2?

RAIDERS AT RAVENS Sunday, CBS

Road-weary Raiders get defensive boon in Nashville; Baltimore riding ‘D’ to 3-0 start but needs more offense.

AP PHOTO

Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension this week

AP PHOTO

Linval Joseph had seven tackles and a sack Sunday

LIONS AT BEARS Sunday, FOX

Detroit looking for franchise-record seventh consecutive win over Bears, who seek first home win in 363 days.

TITANS AT TEXANS Sunday, CBS

Two young QBs, both enduring growing pains, but Mariota trying to do too much while Osweiler might need to do more.

BILLS AT PATRIOTS Sunday, CBS

Rex says he’s coming after TBD Patriots QB, so this should go well.

SEAHAWKS AT JETS Sunday, FOX

Fortunately for Gang Green, Wilson’s knee, not Fitzpatrick’s six INTs, will garner most discussion this week.

BROWNS AT WASHINGTON Sunday, CBS

No RG3 homecoming, but we’re all excited to see what Terrelle Pryor and Kirk Cousins do for encores.

AP PHOTO

AP PHOTO

Russell Wilson may play with a sprained MCL

The Chiefs intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick 6 times

sidered in the same conversation regarding cornerbacks? If he pickpockets Brown and Big Ben twice Sunday, perhaps next week.

Le’Veon Bell might not be the only feature back making his 2016 debut at Heinz Field Sunday. Jamaal Charles is nearing his return from an Oct. 2015 ACL tear — perhaps an unsettling feeling for the Steelers after being victimized by Darren Sproles and a Doug Pederson offense that mirrors what Andy Reid and Alex Smith will bring to town.

— A bounce-back for the Steelers will be tough, but perhaps not as daunting as what Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets face when the Seahawks touch down in Jersey on Sunday. Fitzpatrick’s six-interception abomination was so bad some league pundits are wondering if Geno Smith might be an upgrade. Seattle still has its offensive concerns — none greater than Russell Wilson’s knee injury — but the Seahawks’ ‘D’ looks as dominant as ever, save for one missing ingredient — takeaways.

As for Wilson and his sprained right MCL, we have to wonder if Pete Carroll will consider saving Wilson from himself, not to mention the Jets’ dangerous defensive front.

— The Vikings and Giants met just last Decem-

ber, yet they’ll barely recognize each other with Minnesota sporting a new backfield, albeit the same vicious defense, and Big Blue bringing its new $200 million defense and Odell Beckham Jr., who was suspended for his club’s 49-17 pasting of the Vikings in Week 16 last season.

After Ben McAdoo admitted this week Beckham, whose latest sideline outburst resulted in him getting beat up by a kicking net, must control his emotions and become less of a distraction, he’ll face the league’s deepest, and one of its most aggressive, group of corners.

As much as we disagree with building a defense through free agency but like some of the upgrades Jerry Reese identified, we can’t help but point out Reese could’ve saved himself $12 million by re-signing Linval Joseph. Unlike Damon Harrison ($24 million guaranteed), Joseph is dominant versus the run and pass and signed two offseasons ago in Minnesota at what’s now a bargain price.

— Speed rush: Will Rex Ryan ever stop poking the bear known as Belichick? … The Bengals and Cardinals, popular Super Bowl picks, are home upsets versus Miami and Los Angeles, respectively, from being 1-3. … If the Ravens stymie the Raiders’ offense, it’s time to take their defense seriously.

BRONCOS AT BUCCANEERS Sunday, CBS

If Case Keenum led four TD drives against Bucs, what will Trevor Siemian, after his four-TD road win, put up?

RAMS AT CARDINALS Sunday, FOX

The division-leading Rams visit the reigning division champs, who can’t afford too many more duds from Palmer.

SAINTS AT CHARGERS Sunday, FOX

Bolts could easily be 3-0 after another squandered lead late; Saints close to wasting another prime Brees year.

COWBOYS AT 49ERS Sunday, FOX

Dallas hoping it landed on next Aikman in Prescott, but no one will mistake Gabbert for Young in SF.

CHIEFS AT STEELERS Sunday, NBC

Le’Veon Bell suspension over; is Jamaal Charles done rehabbing? Round One between Brown and Peters.

GIANTS AT VIKINGS Monday, ESPN

Two teams that firmly believe defense still wins titles; Big Blue begins two-game road primetime stint in NFC North.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

DOLPHINS AT BENGALS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

THIS WEEK’S GAMES MIA @ CIN IND @ JAX TEN @ HOU CLE @ WAS SEA @ NYJ BUF @ NE CAR @ ATL OAK @ BAL DET @ CHI DEN @ TB LA @ AZ NO @ SD DAL @ SF KC @ PIT NYG @ MIN

Cincinnati 23, Miami 16, | Something still missing from Fish

Cincinnati 31, Miami 21 | Getting Burfict back helps

Indianapolis 34, Jacksonville 30 | If Colts’ “D” beat Rivers it can handle Bortles

Jacksonville 32, Indianapolis 28 | Jags have to get off the schneid sometime

Houston 19, Tennessee 13 | Texans take ball from Osweiler and give it to “D”

Houston 40, Tennessee 20 | Texans 10 days to get ready, get angry

Cleveland 24, Washington 23 | Upset special, not buying Washington revival yet

Washington 29, Cleveland 20 | Too bad RG III won’t dress

N.Y. Jets 20, Seattle 13 | ‘Hawks O-line, Jets D-line, feeding time at the zoo

N.Y. Jets 22, Seattle 15 | Jets front owns ‘Hawks O-line

New England 27, Buffalo 16 | Doesn’t matter if Belichick has to play QB

New England 17, Buffalo 10 | Pats too tough no matter who’s at QB

Carolina 41, Atlanta 27 | Falcons “D” still a mess

Carolina 31, Atlanta 10 | Short week for Falcons under-manned “D”

Oakland 27, Baltimore 16 | Are Ravens really good enough for 4-0?

Baltimore 10, Oakland 9 | Ravens keep on winning ugly

Chicago 27, Detroit 26 | Check Week Four last season

Chicago 24, Detroit 21 | Have you seen the Lions’ “D”?

Denver 27, Tampa Bay 19 | Winston will be special, just not yet

Denver 31, Tampa Bay 16 | Rams proved Bucs not ready yet

Arizona 27, Los Angeles 3 | Don’t tell me you’re on the Keenum bandwagon

Arizona 23, Los Angeles 10 | ‘Zona better get serious soon

San Diego 34, New Orleans 27 | Saints “D” is still a disaster

San Diego 42, New Orleans 35 | Who’s playing better than Rivers?

San Francisco 24, Dallas 23 | Kaepernick rides to the rescue late

Dallas 21, San Francisco 10 | Cowboys have the formula now

Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 20 | Last week in Philly a Steeler mirage

Pittsburgh 19 , Kansas City 17 | This is head-knocker of the week

Minnesota 27, NY Giants 24 | Bradford’s ball security looms large in close one

Minnesota 36 , N.Y. Giants 28 | Giants will score but Bradford scores more

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

Bills battles to keep jobs just beginning?

O

ver the past two weeks the Buffalo Bills have fallen to 0-2 at home with a sloppy mess of a loss to the Jets on a Thursday night, fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman the next day, bounced back 10 days later with a huge and impressive upset of the Arizona Cardinals and then immediately seen head coach Rex Ryan begin taunting and poking the biggest, baddest bear on the block as they ready for this Sunday’s trip to New England.

Ryan may not be the best coach in the NFL, but he never fails to entertain.

That said, how much longer the show goes on in Buffalo remains to be seen.

As badly as the Bills needed that win over the Cardinals, it really didn’t answer many questions and Ryan is a long way from out of the woods.

Bills fans would like to believe the firing of Roman and installation of Anthony Lynn in his place was all the Bills needed, but that would be

AP PHOTO

Anthony Lynn replaced Greg Roman as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator naïve at best.

In the Jets game that triggered Roman’s firing, the Bills put up 31 points, although seven came on a defensive score, while the defense overseen by coordinator Dennis Thurman, assistant head coach de-

fense and twin brother of Rex, Rob Ryan and Rex himself gave up 497 yards and 37 points.

In 2015, Roman’s first season running the Bills’ offense, the team was average at best but the 23.7 points per game, 360.9 yards per game and

5.68 yards per play the offense managed was the best of any of the seven Jets and Bills teams Ryan had been the head coach of.

Lynn was Ryan’s running backs and assistant head coach with the Jets and followed him to Buffalo to take the same job. He is now in his first offensive coordinator job and the pressure is squarely on Ryan for him to succeed.

Lynn is Ryan’s fifth offensive coordinator in eight years as a head coach following Brian Schottenheimer, Tony Sparano, Marty Mornhinweg and Roman, suggesting hiring one is not Ryan’s strong suit.

Adding to the intrigue are the circumstances surrounding Roman’s firing. It has been reported in the Buffalo area it was a move from the top, pushed for by relatively new owners Terry and Kim Pegula, who purchased the Bills just two years ago and made Ryan their first head coach at the end of the 2014 season.

The Way We Hear It, that was not the case, as it was Rex’s doing all along and he merely sought approval from the Pegulas who had made Roman one of the highest paid offensive

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NERVES BEGINNING TO FRAY IN CLEVELAND AS BROWNS KEEP LOSING? Cleveland Browns first-year head coach Hue Jackson has received somewhere between solid and rave reviews for the way he is handling

his young Browns team so far, as the club has gone from losing big to just blowing games they might have won.

But at the end of the day, 0-3 is 0-3, and some of the moves the Browns have made to get there have insiders scratching their heads, and we’re hearing could be beginning to strain the relationship between Jackson and front-office honchos Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown.

With DePodesta being a baseball sabermetrics guy and Brown a salary cap guru with no NFL talent evaluation experience between them, it’s unclear who is making final calls in the war room on draft day.

It is also unclear whose idea it was to let Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, Tashaun Gipson, Donte Whitner and Karlos Dansby all walk via free agency, releases which yielded little in return – Cleveland could receive compensatory draft picks next spring for Mack, Schwartz, Benjamin and Gipson – and with no proven talent waiting in the wings to replace them.

And that’s just where the story starts. The Way We Hear It, Cleveland dealt the second overall pick in the draft this year in part to load up more picks, but also as much

Paul DePodesta’s future may be in doubt with the Browns after passing on Carson Wentz in this year’s NFL Draft because they didn’t believe Carson Wentz could be their quarterback of the future.

Our sources are telling us the Browns were reasonably sure the Rams were taking Jared Goff with the first overall pick before trading their pick to Philadelphia, but the Browns’ “talent people” didn’t see Wentz as an eventual top-20 passer in the NFL. Is it possible the Browns are so smart that they see a better prospect than Wentz coming in 2017 and can

AP PHOTO

grab him and still have plenty of extra picks?

Jackson has been around too long to buy that.

We’re hearing nothing is imminent in Cleveland, but don’t be surprised if there is a minor coup of sorts after the season and before the draft that leaves Jackson with a clear hold on personnel power in Cleveland and DePodesta or/and Brown in different positions, in Cleveland or perhaps even elsewhere.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

coordinators in the league and will now continue to pay him not to work for them.

Our sources are telling us that the Pegulas are taking a page from their experience purchasing the Buffalo Sabres in 2011, settling in, and trying to learn the NFL and then moving slowly. It is highly unlikely they told their head coach to fire his coordinator.

The perception has been that with Ryan still due $22 million for the remainder of this season and the next three after, the Pegulas felt stuck with Ryan, so looked to find improvement elsewhere.

Our sources say that after paying roughly $1.7 billion in cash to buy the Bills, ownership’s last concern is over saving $22 million if they decide Ryan isn’t the guy they hoped.

Ryan is still very much on the coaching bubble in Buffalo and the wins better keep on coming if he hopes to be there after this season.

ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |

Week 4 matchups to exploit, avoid

By J.C.

MATCHUPS TO AVOID

TALON

Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com

H

Tennessee Titans

opefully you did not take our advice and start Marcus Mariota (17 for 33, 214 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) last week. And we were as surprised as anyone by the clunkers delivered by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Perhaps the return of Le’Veon Bell will get the Steelers back on track.

We saved a little face by recommending you pick up Jordan Howard. He could pay modest dividends this week against a soft Detroit run defense. Don’t be surprised if he keeps the starting job – albeit for a very bad Bears team – even after Jeremy Langford returns.

On to Week 4 …

OPPONENT: AT HOUSTON TEXANS, SUNDAY, NOON Tennessee managed just 10 points at home against a league-worst Raiders defense. It’s hard to imagine the Titans having much success on the road against a significantly better Texans squad.

The Titans have a solid run game, but are 24th in passing, averaging just 229 yards per game through the air. That ranking is likely to drop this week in what should be a tough day for Mariota. Houston’s defense is ranked No. 1 versus the pass. At 40.5, this game is tied with Jets/Seahawks for the lowest over/under of the week.

SOLID PLAY: DeMarco Murray WORTH A LOOK: Delanie Walker* LAST RESORT: Derrick Henry, Jace Amaro (if no Walker), Titans D/ST STAY AWAY: Mariota, Tajae Sharpe, Rishard Matthews, Ryan Succop

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT Cincinnati Bengals

OPPONENT: VS DOLPHINS, THURSDAY, 7:25 This is an excellent matchup for Jeremy Hill, and, perhaps, Giovani Bernard. Miami’s defense is 31st in rushing yards allowed. The Dolphins are a more respectable 18th versus the pass, but this is still a plus matchup for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Conversely, this is not a good week to start your Dolphins. The Bengals have played a brutal schedule thus far and have been in every game.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins had to go to overtime to beat the Browns last week for their first win.

Tyler Eifert is practicing again, but he is unlikely to play on a short week. If he does play, beware of a “Gronk-line” situation from last Thursday (limited snaps, no targets).

MUST START: Hill, Green SOLID PLAY: Dalton, Mike Nugent, Bengals D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Bernard LAST RESORT: Tyler Boyd, Brandon LaFell

Washington

OPPONENT: VS BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON Just when it looked like Washington’s season was destined to become a dumpster fire, the team rallies for a big win in the Big Apple. Banking on Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense carries risk for fantasy owners, but if you are going to roll the dice, this is the week to do it. Kirk and the boys are unlikely to face a better matchup than Cleveland at home. A problem for fantasy owners: Washington is distributing the ball to four receivers. Jordan Reed (16/190/0), Jamison Crowder (16/175/2), DeSean Jackson (14/238/1) and Pierre Garcon (13/135/0) are all capable of having big games. On the other hand, they are all (except maybe Reed) capable of being shut out. Matt Jones left last Sunday’s game to be evaluated for a concussion, but was able to return.

MUST START: Reed SOLID PLAY: Cousins, Jackson*, Dustin Hopkins WORTH A LOOK: Jones, Crowder LAST RESORT: Garcon STAY AWAY: Washington D/ST

Carolina Panthers

OPPONENT: AT FALCONS, SUNDAY, NOON Atlanta is giving up 433 yards per game – only New Orleans and Oakland have yielded more.

Their 30.3 points allowed per game is fifth-worst in the league. The Panthers are seventh in offensive

AP PHOTO

Panthers QB Cam Newton should put up big numbers against a poor Falcons defense

yards, generating 389.3 yards per game … and that’s after being limited to 306 yards against a tough Minnesota defense. Carolina will have plenty of motivation to play well; they’re trailing Atlanta by one game in the NFC South. With Jonathan Stewart still sidelined, Cameron Artis-Payne should get the bulk of the RB touches, but expect most of the offense to run through Cam Newton.

MUST START: Newton, Greg Olsen, Graham Gano SOLID PLAY: Artis-Payne, Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Fozzy Whittaker LAST RESORT: Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn

Denver Broncos

OPPONENT: AT BUCCANEERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 L.A. had not scored a touchdown prior to its Week Three visit to Tampa. The Rams offense found the end zone four times in a 37-32 victory over the Bucs.

Trevor Siemian is coming off a 312-yard, four-TD performance against a Cincy defense that is stingier than the unit he’ll face this week. Tampa’s defense is better against the run (14th) than the pass (20th), but we still like C.J. Anderson in this game.

MUST START: Anderson, Broncos D/ST SOLID PLAY: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon McManus LAST RESORT: Devontae Booker, Virgil Green*

ALSO CONSIDER Detroit Lions

OPPONENT: AT CHICAGO BEARS, SUNDAY, NOON The fourth-ranked Lions offense squares off against a decimated Bears defense, currently ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed.

San Diego Chargers

OPPONENT: VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, 4:25 San Diego should move the ball up and down the field in this game. New Orleans’ defense is right where it’s been for three consecutive seasons: 31st in yards allowed. Be sure to also take a good look at your Saints. The over/under on this game is around 53 – by far the biggest number of the week.

Oakland Raiders

OPPONENT: AT BALTIMORE RAVENS, SUNDAY, NOON Something will have to give when the Raiders and their second-ranked offense (producing 436 yards per game) travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens’ second-ranked defense (yielding just 254 yards per game). After watching Arizona struggle in Buffalo last week, we’re betting the long trip/early start tips the scales in Baltimore’s favor.

SOLID PLAY: Latavius Murray WORTH A LOOK: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree LAST RESORT: Derek Carr, DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, Clive Walford, Sebastian Janikowski STAY AWAY: Raiders D/ST

New York Giants

OPPONENT: AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS, MONDAY, 7:30 The Vikings have faced the Packers and Panthers in consecutive weeks and are still ranked sixth in fewest yards allowed. They are even tougher on points – only Seattle and Philadelphia have allowed fewer than the Vikes’ 13.3 per game. New York is ranked sixth in total offense and should be able to muster some yards in the passing game. The Giants face a strong pass rush, however. Minnesota leads the NFL with 15 sacks. If the Giants fall behind early, it could be a long night for Eli Manning.

MUST START: Odell Beckham Jr. WORTH A LOOK: Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Giants D/ST LAST RESORT: Orleans Darkwa STAY AWAY: Will Tye, Larry Donnell, Josh Brown

ALSO BEWARE Chicago Bears

OPPONENT: AT VS DETROIT LIONS, SUNDAY, NOON Right now, the Bears are a reflection of their coach: a rambling, incoherent mess. Jordan Howard could, however, find reasonable success on the ground.

Los Angeles Rams

OPPONENT: AT ARIZONA CARDINALS, SUNDAY, 3:25 Despite scoring 37 points in Tampa, the Rams remain dead last in offense. They’ll run into an angry team in Arizona this week.

* — Check injury status

By JOHN

SAHLY

A

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sk most DFS players where they begin their week of research and the answer is uniform: Las Vegas.

There’s a reason Vegas sports books continue to thrive and profit. They’re good at forecasting the over/unders, the favorites, the underdogs and the point spreads.

So when you see a game with a 50-point over/ under total, it’s a good idea to roster a multitude of players from that game. If you see a game with a 40-point over/under total, it’s usually a good idea to stay away from most players in those games. After all, fewer actual points = less potential for fantasy points.

It seems simple, and there are plenty of DFS players who follow Vegas lines and choose their rosters as such. Some players go as deep as the individual player propositions put out on Sunday mornings by the sports books.

There’s a school of thought that Vegas is overvalued in the DFS world, that we put too much stock into it, and just go for the 50-point games when a game with a 47-point over/under could be just as good. Fantasy Labs co-founder Jonathan Bales addressed that point in a PFW fantasy football podcast a month ago, and it’s hard to disagree with him.

But line movement is another matter, and that

AP PHOTOS

Carson Palmer was sacked five times and was intercepted four times Sunday against the Bills is something we should pay attention to for big swings. And a perfect example occurred this past weekend.

If you listened to Wednesday’s PFW game-bygame fantasy football podcast, you know I was all over the Arizona Cardinals against the Buf-

falo Bills. I thought it was a potential chance to be sneaky in DFS tournaments as well, considering the Bills were coming off the mini-bye of a Thursday night game, and it was a west coast team traveling to the east coast for the early start, a spot which traditionally hurts west coast teams.

When I said all of that, the Cardinals were sixpoint favorites, a nice sweet spot where plenty of points are expected but it’s not such a blowout that you risk offensive studs being benched.

By Saturday, the Cardinals were down to three-point favorites, despite multiple reports saying that as much as 80 percent of the bets taken were on the Cardinals to cover. Quite simply, it was textbook reverse line movement, where the line moves in the opposite direction of the public betting. In other words, some sharp Vegas gamblers who know way more than you or I were betting heavily on the Bills and the six points. Seeing this, I didn’t end up with one Cardinal on my roster this past week.

The result? Bills 33, Cardinals 18. The only fantasy player worth rostering from the Cardinals was matchup (and apparently Vegas) proof David Johnson, who scored twice. Carson Palmer had four interceptions and no touchdown passes.

Vegas knows. And if it doesn’t, it learns quick and acts even quicker. Don’t forget to take a second look at the lines before you hit submit on Sunday.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

DFS: Where Vegas can help us when setting our lineup

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 Louisville’s Lamar Jackson is an early favorite for the Heisman Trophy

AP PHOTO

Deshaun Watson led Clemson to the National Championship Game

AP PHOTO

Game of the Week: Louisville at Clemson

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s we finally get to October, the college football schedule starts to pick up with meaningful conference games, and there are a few games that match up teams in the top 25.

The first would be Friday night when Stanford travels to Seattle to play Washington at Husky Stadium.

Though early season polls are pretty much meaningless, Stanford is currently ranked 7th while Washington is at No. 10. The best NFL prospect in that game will be Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who just may be the best all-purpose running back in the country and an easy first-round selection if he enters the NFL Draft. McCaffrey already has 436 yards rushing and 12 receptions.

Saturday afternoon has a huge Big Ten matchup between Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin doesn’t have the overall talent of some of the other top teams, but they are very well coached and pay attention to detail.

If you want to see one of the better

defensive players in the would win hands down. country, take a look at Jackson’s favorite Michigan safety Jabrill target is senior wide Peppers. Peppers is only receiver James Quick, a redshirt sophomore, who is coming on real but he already is one of strong in 2016. Quick the best defensive proshas 16 receptions and pects available. In the a 22.5-yard average per NFL, he will be a safety catch. He has already or a hybrid linebacker. caught three touchdown He easily has the athletpasses.

GREG GABRIEL icism to play outside at Running back Bran@greggabe don Radcliff is also havcorner also. He has great ing a strong season with instincts and can be very 427 yards and three touchdowns. physical.

Senior outside linebacker Devonte On Saturday night, the “Game Fields is the best defensive prospect of the Week” will be an ACC affair on the Louisville squad. Fields can with No. 3 Louisville visiting No. 5 come off the edge and give a consisClemson. tent pass rush.

While he is only a true sophomore Safety Josh Harvey-Clemons is and not yet ready for the NFL, Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson another good prospect. He originally may be the most exciting player in enrolled at Georgia and transferred the country. He leads a Louisville following the 2013 season. At about offense that has averaged 63 points 6-5, 225 pounds, Harvey-Clemons has though four games. Jackson has that hybrid safety/linebacker look thrown for over 1,300 yards and 13 that NFL teams are looking for. He is touchdowns while rushing for 526 Louisville’s leading tackler with 29 yards and 12 touchdowns. If the tackles and two interceptions.

Heisman voting were today, he On the other side of the field will

be Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson . Going into the season, Watson was the odds-on favorite to be the first quarterback drafted, but his play has slipped a bit early in the season. That said, it’s early and he has more than enough time to recover and put himself back on top.

Watson has one of the better wide receivers in the country to throw to in Mike Williams. Williams is big and physical and has already caught 21 passes, but only one touchdown.

His production in the red zone has to pick up.

Some felt that defensive tackle Carlos Williams was the best defensive lineman on the 2015 Clemson team. While that might not be the case, he is a good player in his own right and capable of playing in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. To date he has 19 total tackles and three sacks.

Another defensive player to look at is corner Cordrea Tankersley.

Tankersley has the height, length and athleticism NFL teams covet. In four games this year he has 15 tackles and four PBUs but has not yet recorded an interception.

This week’s top six all have great matchups. If Garoppolo goes for the Pats, slot him at No. 11.

1. Cam Newton, Panthers @ Falcons 2. Drew Brees, Saints @ Chargers 3. Matthew Stafford, Lions @ Bears 4. Philip Rivers, Chargers vs. Saints 5. Andrew Luck, Colts @ Jaguars (London) 6. Blake Bortles, Jaguars vs. Colts (London) 7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Chiefs 8. Andy Dalton, Bengals vs. Dolphins 9. Kirk Cousins, Washington vs. Browns 10. Carson Palmer, Cardinals vs. Rams 11. Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ 49ers 12. Trevor Siemian, Broncos @ Bucs 13. Derek Carr, Raiders @ Ravens 14. Joe Flacco, Ravens vs. Raiders 15. Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Panthers 16. Alex Smith, Chiefs @ Steelers 17. Eli Manning, Giants @ Vikings 18. Brock Osweiler, Texans vs. Titans 19. Sam Bradford, Vikings vs. Giants 20. Russell Wilson*, Seahawks @ Jets

34. DeVante Parker, Dolphins @ Bengals 35. Terrelle Pryor, Browns @ Washington 36. Mike Wallace, Ravens vs. Raiders

TIGHT ENDS

Cam Newton

AP PHOTO

Le’Veon Bell

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RUNNING BACKS

Le’Veon Bell returns for Pittsburgh and wastes no time in making an impact. We probably like Hill more than most, but Miami is weak against the run. If the Bears are listening to critics, they will run the ball — good news for those who grabbed Howard off waivers.

1. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers vs. Chiefs 2. David Johnson, Cardinals vs. Rams 3. Jeremy Hill, Bengals vs. Dolphins 4. Lamar Miller, Texans vs. Titans 5. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys @ 49ers 6. DeMarco Murray, Titans @ Texans 7. Melvin Gordon, Chargers vs. Saints 8. Mark Ingram, Saints @ Chargers 9. C.J. Anderson, Broncos @ Bucs 10. Jordan Howard, Bears vs. Lions 11. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots vs. Bills 12. Todd Gurley, Rams @ Cardinals 13. LeSean McCoy, Bills @ Patriots 14. Devonta Freeman, Falcons vs. Panthers 15. Carlos Hyde, 49ers vs. Cowboys 16. Matt Forte, Jets vs. Seahawks 17. Christine Michael, Seahawks @ Jets 18. Isaiah Crowell, Browns @ Washington 19. Frank Gore, Colts @ Jaguars (London) 20. Latavius Murray, Raiders @ Ravens 21. Spencer Ware, Chiefs @ Steelers 22. Charles Sims, Bucs vs. Broncos 23. Theo Riddick, Lions @ Bears 24. Tevin Coleman, Falcons vs. Panthers 25. Matt Jones*, Washington vs. Browns 26. Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers @ Falcons 27. Giovani Bernard, Bengals vs. Dolphins 28. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars vs. Colts (London) 29. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins @ Bengals 30. Orleans Darkwa Giants @ Vikings 31. Dwayne Washington, Lions @ Bears 32. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings vs. Giants

Gronk owners still seething from last

Thursday have to expect more this week.

Even before injury, Gates was running on fumes in SD. Despite costly fumble, look for Henry to be main TE rest of the way.

1. Greg Olsen, Panthers @ Falcons 2. Jordan Reed, Washington vs. Browns 3. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots vs. Bills 4. Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ Steelers 5. Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. Saints 6. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings vs. Giants 7. Gary Barnidge, Browns @ Washington 8. Zach Miller, Bears vs. Lions 9. Eric Ebron, Lions @ Bears 10. Julius Thomas, Jaguars vs. Colts (London) 11. Dennis Pitta, Ravens vs. Raiders 12. Coby Fleener, Saints @ Chargers 13. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks @ Jets 14. Jason Witten, Cowboys @ 49ers 15. Delanie Walker*, Titans @ Texans 16. Dwayne Allen, Colts @ Jaguars (London) 17. Jacob Tamme, Falcons vs. Panthers 18. Cameron Brate, Bucs vs. Broncos 19. Martellus Bennett, Patriots vs. Bills 20. Jesse James, Steelers vs. Chiefs

PLACEKICKERS

A.J. Green

AP PHOTO

33. DeAngelo Williams, Steelers vs. Chiefs 34. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins @ Bengals 35. Derrick Henry, Titans @ Texans 36. Justin Forsett, Ravens vs. Raiders

WIDE RECEIVERS

olts offense seems more productive C with Hilton as featured receiver. A potential shootout is brewing in San Diego.

1. A.J. Green, Bengals vs. Dolphins 2. Antonio Brown, Steelers vs. Chiefs 3. Allen Robinson, Jaguars vs. Colts (London) 4. T.Y. Hilton, Colts @ Jaguars (London) 5. Brandin Cooks, Saints @ Chargers 6. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans vs. Titans 7. Marvin Jones, Lions @ Bears 8. Julio Jones, Falcons vs. Panthers 9. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers vs. Falcons 10. Odell Beckham, Giants @ Vikings 11. Dez Bryant*, Cowboys @ 49ers 12. Stefon Diggs, Vikings vs. Giants

Greg Olsen

AP PHOTO

13. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos @ Bucs 14. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals vs. Rams 15. Mike Evans, Bucs vs. Broncos 16. Amari Cooper, Raiders @ Ravens 17. Travis Benjamin, Chargers vs. Saints 18. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins @ Bengals 19. Alshon Jeffery, Bears vs. Lions 20. Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs @ Steelers 21. Eric Decker, Jets vs. Seahawks 22. Will Fuller, Texans vs. Titans 23. Doug Baldwin*, Seahawks @ Jets 24. Michael Crabtree, Raiders @ Ravens 25. DeSean Jackson*, Washington vs. Browns 26. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos @ Bucs 27. Brandon Marshall*, Jets vs. Seahawks 28. Julian Edelman, Patriots vs. Bills 29. Willie Snead*, Saints @ Chargers 30. Golden Tate, Lions @ Bears 31. Tyrell Williams, Chargers vs. Saints 32. Sterling Shepard, Giants @ Vikings 33. Michael Floyd*, Cardinals vs. Rams

1. Graham Gano, Panthers @ Falcons 2. Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals vs. Rams 3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots vs. Bills 4. Adam Vinatieri, Colts @ Jaguars (London) 5. Justin Tucker, Ravens vs. Raiders 6. Dan Bailey, Cowboys @ 49ers 7. Nick Novak, Texans vs. Titans 8. Brandon McManus, Broncos @ Bucs 9. Matt Prater, Lions @ Bears 10. Steven Hauschka, Seahawks @ Jets 11. Josh Lambo, Chargers vs. Saints 12. Mike Nugent, Bengals vs. Dolphins 13. Chris Boswell, Steelers vs. Chiefs 14. Dustin Hopkins, Washington vs. Browns 15. Cairo Santos, Chiefs @ Steelers

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

1. Cardinals vs. Rams 2. Texans vs. Titans 3. Broncos @ Bucs 4. Seahawks @ Jets 5. Panthers @ Falcons 6. Bengals vs. Dolphins 7. Ravens vs. Raiders 8. Vikings vs. Giants 9. Patriots vs. Bills 10. Jets vs. Seahawks 11. Lions @ Bears 12. Steelers vs. Chiefs 13. Cowboys @ 49ers 14. Bills @ Patriots 15. Giants @ Vikings BYE WEEK: Packers and Eagles

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

QUARTERBACKS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

Which teams will stay undefeated/ winless?

NATE ATKINS HUB ARKUSH

coach Bill O’Brien isn’t even willing to talk about it. So I’ll take them and Denver. I keep telling myself, on everything from the bumbling Bears to the now formidable L.A. Rams (that looked futile in Week 1) that we really have to be patient on sample size and all of these teams, filled with the best athletes in the world, are capable of winning at any time.

But I believe the standings separation will arrive soon enough. I also like the Broncos because what’s around the quarterback is so good. As for the winless team most likely to turn it around, Jacksonville’s the easy answer. They’ve got talent and the upcoming schedule — Indy in England, Chicago, Oakland and Tennessee —

PATRICK FINLEY JON STYF

to get back near .500 quickly.

Arkush: You know Jon, I keep thinking the same thing about the Jaguars, and then the facts jump up and kick me in the butt. Gus Bradley may be a great guy, a players coach, tough as nails, etc., but he’s also 12-39 leading the Jaguars and a former defensive coordinator who hasn’t been able to get his defense to play in threeplus seasons in Jacksonville. I get the Packers were a tough opener, but is getting annihilated by San Diego and then losing at home to Baltimore any more unbelievable than losing to the Colts, Bears, Raiders or Titans?

I know I’m crazy, but I look at their rosters and my gut tells me if they can get some of their guys back on defense, the Bears

are still the most likely of the four 0-fers to be competitive in the second half of the season.

Styf: New Orleans is another team that would be easy to think is better than the 0-3 record. They have some offensive weapons in place and a proven and effective quarterback. But, the reality is, 2013 was the only time the Saints started a season well. And that could have been partly the relief of Sean Payton coming out of his suspension.

Besides that, the regression has continued for a team that used to be annually competitive and only made the playoffs or had a winning record once in the past five years. I hear your Bears optimism, and see the talent on the defensive front, but none of it is healthy enough to get on

the field and a ton would have to go right for that to change.

Getting back to the first question, the Eagles are growing on me too, and not just because of Carson Wentz. After holding the Steelers to three points last week, they have the best scoring defense in the league. While we know things will get more difficult for Wentz at some point, an effective defense like we’ve seen to this point can help us forget about any offensive issues quickly. The schedule will get more difficult, just not right away.

Arkush: The Eagles, aye? I love Wentz and think he is going to be special, but they’re likely to lose Lane Johnson to a 10-game suspension out of the bye, the receivers are just average and I think the linebackers and secondary are still sketchy.

For me, the Patriots are a given and right now I have to like the Vikings to grab the first seed in the NFC Playoffs.

Styf: The Eagles’ biggest issue is the competitiveness of that division. The Vikings don’t face that with what appears to be a clear gap between the top two and bottom two. I’m just not buying that they’re going to beat out the Packers.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

In this week’s edition of ‘Take 2,’ Hub Arkush of Pro Football Weekly and Jon Styf of the Northwest Herald discuss the NFL’s early parity and which undefeated/winless teams will continue down that road.

Arkush: It seems strange to me that after just three weeks of the 2016 season there are only five teams that have managed to stay undefeated — New England, Baltimore, Denver, Philadelphia and Minnesota — and only four teams remain winless —Cleveland, Jacksonville, New Orleans and Chicago. Whether it’s Pete Rozelle’s parity or pure and simple mediocrity, the NFL with 24 teams within one game of each other in the standings has never been more balanced.

But it is early and I find myself wondering of these five undefeateds, which club(s) is the most legitimate, and which of the winless wonders has the best shot at turning things around?

Styf: There’s no better example of the Patriots’ staying power than last Thursday’s dismantling of a good Houston team with Jacoby Brissett and LeGarrette Blount leading the way. It was so ugly that Texans

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

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