Pftt 2016 09 15

SINCE 1967

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

Power Rankings

Draft ’17

THE TOP PRO PROSPECTS FOR THE SOONERS, BUCKEYES

PATRIOTS ARE NEW #1

Way We Hear It

Arkush

EAGLES EARLY WINNERS IN OFFSEASON MOVES

RAMS, WASHINGTON, EAGLES

Fantasy Football

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

Take 2

NFC North

DID THE NFL FAIL CAM NEWTON?

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers face Adrian Peterson and the Vikings in the inaugural game at U.S. Bank Stadium

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

Eagles early huge winners in offseason dealings One thing we can glean from the first full weekend of the 2016 NFL season is the Philadelphia Eagles know what they’re doing.

When Philly sent 2016 and 2017 first-round picks, a 2018 second and 2016 third- and fourth-round picks to the Cleveland Browns for the second pick in the 2016 draft and a 2017 fourth-rounder, many wondered if they had paid too dearly without even knowing which quarterback the Rams would leave them.

My understanding is that the Eagles were prepared to take either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz. My sources tell me they strongly preferred Wentz and their sources were telling them the Rams were leaning toward Goff, which is exactly how things played out.

This past Sunday, Wentz hung a skin on the wall with a very impressive performance starting the very first game of his rookie season, while Goff was inactive and in street clothes for the Rams Monday night.

It is far too early to declare the Eagles the winners, but that’s not the best

part of this story.

The two ones the About the time it Eagles gave Cleveland was becoming obvious are replaced by the pick to the Eagles they had they got from Cleveland to take Wentz and a keeper in Wentz, the Vikings one, the Teddy Bridgewater 2018 second is replaced suffered a horrible by the Vikings’ second knee injury and the next year, and the four Minnesota Vikings they sent Cleveland came in search of is replaced by the one Sam Bradford, who they got back from the was expected to keep Browns.

Wentz on the bench Even if Bradford indefinitely. So the flops in Minnesota, the Eagles sent Bradford HUB ARKUSH Eagles get Wentz and a to the Vikings for a harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com fourth-round pick for a first-round pick in @Hub_Arkush two and a three.

2017 and a conditional Again, no one is writing off Goff yet, fourth-rounder that could be a second. but what did he cost the Rams?

Let’s assume the best for both the Tennessee sent the Rams the No. 1 Eagles and Vikings – the four becomes overall pick they used on Goff, plus a a two if Bradford plays well – and fourth- and a sixth-round pick in the Philly gets a one and a two for Bradford. Once you stop moving all the piec2016 draft. In return, the Titans got es around the board, the Eagles will the Rams first-round picks in 2016 and have acquired whom they hope is their 2017, two 2016 second-round picks and franchise quarterback for a net value of third-round picks in 2016 and 2017. a 2016 third-round draft choice.

So the net on that deal is the Rams

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got Goff and fourth- and sixth-round picks for a one, two twos and two threes.

No matter how you spin it, Howie Roseman, Doug Pederson and the Eagles are huge winners over Les Snead, Jeff Fisher and the Rams even if Goff is eventually the better player than Wentz as long as Wentz doesn’t go in the tank and Goff doesn’t become Tom Brady.

And how did the Browns do?

Cleveland ended up trading the Eagles’ eighth pick in the first round to the Titans for their 15th pick in the first round and an extra second and third.

So net, the Browns ended up with WR Corey Coleman, an extra one, two twos and two threes, a really nice haul assuming they know what to do with it.

But after Sunday, they also ended up with their hoped-to-be franchise quarterback of the future, Robert Griffin III, on injured reserve with a broken shoulder, 37-year-old journeyman Josh McCown now under center, and no college QBs looking like future NFL franchise picks on the horizon.

Only the Eagles are counting their winnings as we head into Week 2.

C’mon, W in Arizona with no Brady, Gronk or Nink?

They paid what for Norman?

What a difference a Nelson makes

Hmmm, who saw Rams beating coming?

Better than we thought, still questions at QB

Not awful, not very good, OTs need some help

Newton can’t take that beating 16 times

Dalton’s a winner, can they keep him upright?

If that’s all A.P.’s got left, they have a problem

Saved the W, how did it get that bad in 1st place?

That’s the Jadeveon Clowney we thought he was

Kids need to develop, let’s check back Week 14

Fitz is fine, David Johnson great, but Palmer?

Del Rio wins big ones of the week award

Is the defense back in the Giants?

20. DALLAS COWBOYS 21. WASHINGTON 22. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 23. CHICAGO BEARS 24. MIAMI DOLPHINS 25. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 26. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27. ATLANTA FALCONS 28. BUFFALO BILLS 29. LOS ANGELES RAMS 30. TENNESSEE TITANS 31. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 32. CLEVELAND BROWNS Mediocre on their best day with that lineup

Fully loaded without Bell and Green

They showed up ready, give Gase’s guys that

With their win in Arizona, Jimmy Garoppolo and the Patriots take over the top spot in our rankings

14. N.Y. JETS 15. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 16. DETROIT LIONS 17. BALTIMORE RAVENS 18. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 19. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES L, but how many sacks when Richardson’s back?

Move over guys, Jameis Winston is here

So Stafford likes spreading the ball around

Nice, but won’t get depleted Bills every week

Can see them coming but not there yet

Looks like Wentz is ready to us

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 3. GREEN BAY PACKERS 4. DENVER BRONCOS 5. CAROLINA PANTHERS 6. CINCINNATI BENGALS 7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 8. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 9. HOUSTON TEXANS 10. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 11. ARIZONA CARDINALS 12. OAKLAND RAIDERS 13. N.Y. GIANTS

Same old story, plenty of ‘O’ but just no ‘D’

Speaking of no ‘D,’ what are Colts thinking?

Need a week or two here, how good are Bucs?

Suspicions confirmed, this is a bad football team

And Jared Goff was where?

You can buy players but you can’t buy wins

Allen injury a shame, no excuse for meltdown

You expected something else?

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016 Will Fuller had 107 receiving yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut

AP PHOTO

Jeremy Hill and the Bengals lost to the Steelers in last year’s playoffs

AP PHOTO

Top matchups this week in AFC, NFC North divisions

P

erhaps revenge in the NFL is a dish best served when the stakes are higher than in Week 2, yet good luck telling that to the Packers, Bengals and Texans.

We’ll start in Cincinnati, because none of these three clubs know January disappointment better than Marvin Lewis’. After being within two minutes of exorcising their postseason demons and burying their division rivals in the process, Cincinnati’s epic meltdown – even by Bengals’ epic meltdown standards – propelled the Steelers to the divisional round and kept Lewis in all-too-familiar territory: one-and-done postseason-ville.

Now, the Bengals and Steelers, both 1-0 and fresh off impressive quarterbacking performances in the face of adversity, renew pleasantries. Jeremy Hill, Adam Jones and Co. are desperate to prove they’re more composed and their Bengals are still

the team to beat in the AFC North – even if the Steelers were the NFL’s most impressive Week 1 winner.

Joey Porter and Vontaze Burfict will remain on their respective sidelines – Porter coaching Pittsburgh’s OLBs; Burfict serving the second of his three-game ban for headhunting – but there will be plenty of drama at Heinz Field on Sunday.

The Packers and their streak of seven consecutive postseason appearances, tied with New England for the NFL’s longest, won’t garner a lot of sympathy around the league, not after winning a postseason game – still a novel concept for Bengals fans – and entering this season as a Super Bowl favorite.

And unlike Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, one of the NFL’s nastiest current rivalries by any measure, Vikings coach Mike Zimmer conceded this week that his team must “beat [the Packers] a lot more often for it to be a rivalry.’’

Perhaps, but Green Bay isn’t used to looking up in the division, nor having to go on the road in

the wild-card round. It was resigned to that fate in January after Minnesota went into Lambeau Field and took what the Packers consider theirs in the NFC North championship game.

Minnesota might not have decided on a starting quarterback yet this week, but rest assured Zimmer’s bunch will be determined not to let Green Bay take the spotlight away from the reigning division champs in primetime for the debut of U.S. Bank Stadium.

No, the Texans and Chiefs aren’t division foes, but Houston’s playoff clunker, a 30-0 home whitewashing courtesy of Kansas City and, let’s not kid anyone, ex-Texans QB Brian Hoyer, rivals the Bengals on the postseason embarrasment scale.

Unlike the Bengals, who welcomed back all their biggest culprits with open arms, Houston underwent a dramatic offensive overhaul this offseason to get Bill O’Brien, his defense and Texans fans the shot they deserve. And it just so happens all O’Brien’s shiny new toys – Brock Osweiler, Lamar Miller and Will Fuller – shone brightly in Week

Thursday, NBC

Darrelle Revis vs. Sammy Watkins doesn’t have its usual luster, but that won’t curtail Rex Ryan’s bluster.

49ERS AT PANTHERS Sunday, FOX

Something tells us an angry Carolina team with extra rest isn’t what the well-traveled but not well-rested Niners need.

RAVENS AT BROWNS Sunday, CBS

After a hard-fought Week 1 win, the Ravens might be longing for RG3 after what Josh McCown did to them last time.

TITANS AT LIONS Sunday, CBS

The battle of coaches whose interim tags were removed by rookie GMs; Mularkey needs Mariota on track fast.

CHIEFS AT TEXANS Sunday, CBS

Bill O’Brien can’t wait for this playoff rematch with a newlook offense; Chiefs’ furious comeback sign of things to come?

DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS Sunday, CBS

What did Adam Gase do to deserve Miami’s start? Jimmy Garoppolo looks like he’s been paying attention in class.

SAINTS AT GIANTS Sunday, FOX

Still shell-shocked by Raiders, Saints head to New York, where ‘D’ improved and coverage plan for OBJ unclear.

BENGALS AT STEELERS Sunday, CBS

It’s more likely we’ll see a lot points scored than any pleasantries being exchanged between Joey Porter and Adam Jones.

Jordy Nelson had 6 catches and a touchdown in the Packers’ win over the Jaguars in Week One 1, whereas the dominant defense the Chiefs rode into Reliant Stadium in January needed to be bailed out by Alex Smith for the Chiefs to pull off the week’s biggest comeback.

ENCORES: Eagles and Patriots fans might still have their arms raised and lighters lit as they anxiously await their exciting young quarterbacks return to the stage after smashingly successful NFL debuts.

Carson Wentz might’ve been picking on the lowly Browns at home in his first NFL start, but it was the poise and control with which he played that should have the Eagles most pleased with their decision not to wait before opening a new era. We wonder if Jeff Fisher and the Rams are paying attention?

Wentz faces a step up in class Monday night, when his first road game will come in primetime at Soldier Field against a Bears defense still well short of playoff-caliber but almost assured to provide more resistance than the Browns. Wentz also could be asked to do it without his injured tight end and suspended right tackle.

Just don’t bother mentioning excuses to Jimmy Garoppolo, who went into Arizona, home of the NFC West champs and another legitimate Super Bowl contender, and dissected the Cardinals without his Hall of Fame tight end, both starting tackles and most dymamic running back. Garoppolo gets to return to Foxborough this week, but he still must contend with renowned QB-terrorizer Ndamukong Suh and a formidable Miami defensive front still stewing after letting Russell Wilson

AP PHOTO

and the Seahawks escape.

Dak Prescott needs more help as he heads to Washington for his first road start. He and a ridiculously undermanned ‘D’ weren’t great but probably should have pulled out a win versus the Giants; fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant just weren’t all that good. Washington again failed to mount a pass rush, and refused to trust $75 million cornerback Josh Norman to cover the opponent’s best player. That might be enough help for Prescott.

Ironically, Trevor Siemian, least impressive of the four debut starters, was the only one who helped his team erase a 10-point halftime deficit against an elite stop-unit. He’ll oppose easily an elite quarterback in his encore, but also the worst defense, as the Colts couldn’t even make Andrew Luck’s otherwordly 385-yard, four-TD masterpiece hold up.

SOUTHBOUND: The Falcons and Saints already find themselves in tough spots. Atlanta’s still-bad ‘D’ travels cross-country to face the Raiders, playing with house money. The Saints, like the Colts, are wondering how much more their quarterback can do to mask a bad defense, suddenly without its best cornerback, as they visit Eli, Odell and an improving Giants team. Like Dan Quinn’s Falcons, fellow ex-Seahawks coordinator-turned-embattled coach Gus Bradley travels through three time zones this week to visit a Chargers club with everything to lose. Bradley’s Jaguars are 0-1 for the fourth consecutive season, none of the previous three nearly as urgent as 2016, when Shad Khan’s spending spree means playoffs-or-bust for Bradley.

COWBOYS AT WASHINGTON Sunday, FOX

Dak Prescott looks pretty good but will Dez Bryant pick it up against Josh Norman?

BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS Sunday, FOX

Fans of vertical offense rejoice; could Dirk Koetter be the next Bruce Arians?

SEAHAWKS AT RAMS Sunday, FOX

An ankle injury puts Russell Wilson’s streak of 74 consecutive starts to begin career in jeopardy.

COLTS AT BRONCOS Sunday, CBS

Luck couldn’t have done any more, yet 0-1 Colts head to Denver, where franchise QBs aren’t safe.

FALCONS AT RAIDERS Sunday, CBS

Jack Del Rio is playing with house money; pressure already rising on Dan Quinn’s Falcons and banged-up WR corps.

JAGUARS AT CHARGERS Sunday, CBS

It’s hard to say which of these desperate teams can least afford an 0-2 start.

PACKERS AT VIKINGS Sunday, NBC

Vikes cut ribbon on U.S. Bank Stadium against team they cut ahead of for NFC North superiority.

EAGLES AT BEARS Monday, ESPN

It’s a long way from Fargo to opening against Cleveland to first road trip, at Soldier Field, in prime time for Carson Wentz.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

JETS AT BILLS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

THIS WEEK’S GAMES NYJ @ BUF CIN @ PIT TEN @ DET BAL @ CLE DAL @ WAS NO @ NYG SF @ CAR MIA @ NE KC @ HOU SEA @ LA TB @ AZ JAX @ SD ATL @ OAK IND @ DEN GB @ MIN PHI @ CHI

HUB

ARKUSH

DAN

HAMPTON

Jets 20, Bills 16 | Jets’ ‘D’ dominates here

Bills 20, Jets 17 | Taking the home team in this one

Steelers 27 , Bengals 20 | No Bengals payback this time

Steelers 21, Bengals 17 | Pittsburgh looked scary in Week 1

Lions 24 , Titans 23 | Titans still finding way

Lions 28, Titans 10 | Stafford and Co. cruise

Ravens 23, Browns 16 | Harbaugh doesn’t lose these

Ravens 17, Browns 7 | Cleveland just not very good

Washington 27, Cowboys 16 | Josh & Dez put on a show

Washington 17, Cowboys 10 | Zeke’s struggles continue

Giants 30 , Saints 27 | Bombs away from Eli & Brees

Giants 35, Saints 28 | This should be a shootout

Panthers 34, 49ers 6 | NFL needs slaughter rule here

Panthers 35, 49ers 3 | Mismatch of the week

Patriots 30, Dolphins 13 | Tom who? It’s Jimmy time

Patriots 24, Dolphins 10 | Belichick owns AFC East

Chiefs 23, Texans 20 | Bring the brass knuckles here

Texans 20, Chiefs 17 | Two pretty good football teams

Rams 16, Seahawks 13 | Upset special over limping Russell

Seahawks 17, Rams 0 | Will the Rams score at all this year?

Cardinals 31, Buccaneers 24 | Cards won’t lose 2 straight at home

Cardinals 31, Buccaneers 20 | Winston on the rise, but not here

Jaguars 27, Chargers 26 | Long trip, Jags find a way

Jaguars 28, Chargers 20 | West Coast trip doesn’t slow Bortles

Raiders 27, Falcons 23 | Raiders feast on NFC South

Raiders 31, Falcons 10 | Raiders are back, baby!

Broncos 26, Colts 20 | Colts just don’t have the horses

Broncos 22, Colts 21 | This one goes down to wire

Packers 23, Vikings 19 | Packers spoil the house-warming

Packers 17, Vikings 13 | Defensive battle despite offensive weapons Bears 28, Eagles 10 | Wentz struggles on road, MNF

Bears 24, Eagles 20 | Bears break out blitz, Wentz wilts

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

R

umors have been flying for weeks now that significant contract extensions are in store for Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher, and several folks reported they would be done before the Rams’ season opening embarrassment in San Francisco Monday night.

The way we hear it, Rams owner Stan Kroenke may very well have been considering extending his two top lieutenants, but that decision was never really final and it was pretty easy to see why Monday night.

After all, shouldn’t it take a little more than looking good for HBO’s “Hard Knocks” to justify giving your top football people multi-million dollar deals?

Kroenke is among the NFL’s most “buttoned-up” owners, so it’s hard to know exactly what’s on his mind, but according to our sources, the results of Fisher’s and Snead’s labors are pretty plain to see, and they’re as plain to Kroenke as anyone else.

In four-plus years with the Rams,

The future is uncertain for Les Snead (left) and Jeff Fisher Fisher has never made it to .500, winning 7, 7, 6 and 7 games for a 27-37-1 mark.

While Fisher did take over a 2-14 football team, four-year rebuilding plans with zero signs of progress are rarely tolerated, and many believe the Rams have had the most talent-

AP PHOTO

ed defense in the league the last two seasons, which yielded a 13-19 mark.

For Snead’s part, after also arriving in 2012, he kicked things off with a bang by hiring Fisher, and with Sam Bradford already in place from a No. 1 overall pick, Snead traded the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft to

Washington for three first-rounders and a second-rounder.

Some thought it was the steal of the century, but the yield in terms of wins has been disappointing.

After Fisher’s and Snead’s blockbuster deal that sent Bradford to the Eagles for Nick Foles was a colossal bust, they turned around last spring and gave the Tennessee Titans two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders for the No. 1 overall pick and a fourth- and sixth-rounder.

As you all know by now, the Rams chose Jared Goff over Carson Wentz, who went to the Eagles at No. 2 and had a strong debut starting Week 1 of his rookie season and bringing home a win for the Eagles. Goff had a frontrow view – in street clothes – to the stunningly awful opening night performance of Case Keenum, who beat Goff out for the starting job.

There are many miles to go before we have any idea whether the Rams got it right on Goff.

But where Kroenke finds himself right now is with a public relations problem, at best, in Goff and a black hole at the quarterback position, no

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

How expensive was 49ers loss for Fisher, Snead?

WASHINGTON PAID WHAT FOR JOSH NORMAN?

There was a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington after the Steelers took the locals to the woodshed on “Monday Night Football,” mainly over the decision to keep mega-million dollar free agent cornerback Josh Norman on one side of the field and away from Antonio Brown, the NFL’s best receiver.

Washington fans screamed loudly and long into the night after Brown put up eight catches for 126 yards and two touchdowns: “Isn’t that what we

us r io o ! ic s f l e ck h � D a t Sn al He

executives with no real football experience like Bruce Allen get involved in football decisions.

Don’t get us wrong, Norman had a great year in 2015 and is a good cornerback. But he excelled in mostly zone schemes in Carolina that allowed him to freelance and pick spots to make big plays on the ball, as opposed to being asked to lock down a receiver the way a Patrick Peterson does or Darrelle Revis at least used to do.

Put another way, Norman has never done what you’d expect a $75 million cornerback to do, and that’s why with a franchise famous for short honeymoons, this one could be a record-setter.

Josh Norman

AP PHOTO

signed Norman for, to take away the other guys’ top receiver?”

Apparently the answer is no, and the way we hear it, it’s not because Washington defensive coordinator Joe Barry is smart enough to know it’s not something Norman ever did in Carolina – it’s something he may not be able to do, period, which is why Carolina was willing to let him get away in the first place. This is what happens when team owners and

EAGLES GOT MORE THAN WENTZ AND THEIR FIRST-ROUND PICK BACK IN THE BARGAIN

Much like it’s way too early to write off Jared Goff in Los Angeles and Josh Norman in Washington, it’s way too early to anoint Carson Wentz as the savior in Philadelphia.

But here are two things we’re hearing from the smart folks around the league who should not be ignored.

Most scouts we talked to prior to the 2016 NFL Draft liked Goff, Wentz and Paxton Lynch, and the bulk of

the conversation about which one to take centered around which would best translate to the NFL game and which one would be ready the quickest.

It should have been clear to everyone that was Wentz. Sure, Wentz played FCS competition, but he did it in a pro-style offense in which he was calling plays in the huddle, regularly under center, checking off and making calls and audibles at the line of scrimmage, and constantly reading the field while dropping into the pocket.

Goff and Lynch spent almost their entire college careers in the shotgun, end of discussion.

Here is a second important note for the Eagles that a top NFL scout pointed out to us: Philadelphia was probably less than thrilled when Bradford initially whined about the drafting of Wentz, and by dealing him when they did, the Eagles unloaded almost the entire $35 million contract they gave him a few months back.

That’s $24 million off their 2017 cap that should allow the Eagles to add at least two or even three top free agents, should they choose to.

If we were Howie Roseman, we’d be buying lottery tickets over the next couple of months.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

first- or third-round picks in the 2017 draft, a team that appeared disinterested in the second half in San Francisco, and the coach and GM who engineered the mess looking for expensive new guarantees.

For an owner who just spent nearly $3 billion to woo a brand new fan base in an NFL market where the game has failed twice before, how does he sell that to his new followers?

What we’re hearing is Kroenke is thinking long and hard about it, and Fisher and Snead may have to get used to being lame ducks needing to do something to earn a change in that status.

ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |

Don’t overreact after Week 1 fantasy duds

By J.C.

TALON

I

Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com

f you are a fantasy football owner, you overreact … it’s what you do. But be careful not to read too much into Week 1. Remember in 2015 the Vikings traveled to San Francisco in Week 1 and got waxed.

Minnesota won the NFC North and the 49ers were a train wreck the rest of the way. Owners of Todd Gurley have reason to be concerned – the Rams were bad, almost inconceivably so – but it’s too soon to panic. Likewise for owners of Devonta Freeman, Brandon Marshall, Coby Fleener and Tyrod Taylor.

For Browns fans … it’s never too soon to panic.

Interesting factoid of Week 1: Only two rushers (DeAngelo Williams, Lamar Miller) gained 100 yards or more.

On to Week 2 …

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT New York Giants

OPPONENT: VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, NOON New York opened against a Dallas defense that most observers consider to be mediocre, at best. This week, the G-Men draw a New Orleans defense that is arguably the worst in the NFL. Eli Manning now has a variety of reliable targets, which makes any receiver after Odell Beckham a bit of a hit-or-miss proposition. Still, this is a premier fantasy matchup for the Giants.

MUST START: Manning, Beckham SOLID PLAY: Rashad Jennings, Victor Cruz, Josh Brown WORTH A LOOK: Sterling Shepard LAST RESORT: Will Tye, Larry Donnell STAY AWAY: Giants D/ST

Detroit Lions

OPPONENT: VS. TENNESSEE TITANS, SUNDAY, NOON Detroit’s offense looked pretty darn good in Indianapolis, racking up 39 points, 448 yards, and averaging seven yards per play. Of course, the Lions defense gave up 450 yards and 35 points, so Detroit fans might want to hold off on Super Bowl plans, for now anyway. The Lions did a nice job of spreading the ball around with five players getting at least one carry, and eight players catching at least one pass (six Lions had at least three receptions). If that distribution of touches continues, it could limit the value of several Lions. Based on an extremely small sample size, however, Matthew Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron look like good bets to outperform their 2016 draft position.

Tennessee’s defense seems to have improved this year, but this remains an above-average matchup for Detroit.

SOLID PLAY: Stafford, Abdullah, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Matt Prater WORTH A LOOK: Riddick, Ebron LAST RESORT: Lions D/ST

Arizona Cardinals

OPPONENT: VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 Arizona came up short last week in a hard-fought game against New England. In general, the Cards still look like one of the better teams in the NFC, al-

Todd Gurley is still a solid play this week

AP PHOTO

though Carson Palmer looked shaky at times. David Johnson had a 45-yard run, but gained just 44 yards on his other 15 carries. For about five years in a row, the general consensus has been that Larry Fitzgerald would no longer be the primary receiver in Arizona. Maybe that happens in 2017. Tampa’s defense held Atlanta to just 52 yards rushing in Week 1, but yielded 334 yards in the air.

MUST START: Johnson SOLID PLAY: Palmer, Michael Floyd, Chandler Catanzaro WORTH A LOOK: John Brown, Jermaine Gresham, Cardinals D/ST

Oakland Raiders

OPPONENT: VS. ATLANTA FALCONS, SUNDAY, 3:25 The Raiders handed the ball off to five different RBs in Week 1. Most teams don’t even have five backs active in a given week. While this has to concern owners of Latavius Murray, the featured back did get the lion’s share of the carries (14 of 24). Atlanta proved in Week 1 its defense can be exploited, especially through the air.

MUST START: Amari Cooper SOLID PLAY: Derek Carr, Murray, Michael Crabtree, Sebastian Janikowski WORTH A LOOK: Clive Walford LAST RESORT: Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Seth Roberts STAY AWAY: Raiders D/ST

ALSO CONSIDER Carolina Panthers

OPPONENT: VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, SUNDAY, NOON The 49ers shut out the anemic Rams, but you can bet the scoreless streak will end here. Cam Newton and the Panthers have had an extra three days to prepare. They will be stinging from their opening-week loss.

New Orleans Saints

OPPONENT: AT NEW YORK GIANTS, SUNDAY, NOON This is trending to be the highest over/under betting line of the week. New York’s defense has improved from last year, but that’s not saying much.

MATCHUPS TO AVOID Buffalo Bills

OPPONENT: VS. NEW YORK JETS, THURSDAY, 7:25 As mentioned at the beginning of this column,

you don’t want to panic after one week. On the other hand, you also don’t want to double down on bad bets. In their opener – against a Ravens defense that no one was confusing with the ’85 Bears – the Bills managed a grand total of 160 yards in total offense.

That’s about a quarter’s worth of passing yards for Drew Brees. Sammy Watkins is struggling with a foot injury. He says he’ll play, but he’s unlikely to be anywhere near 100 percent. The Jets secondary looked pretty suspect against the Bengals, but if the Bills play like they did last week, it won’t matter.

SOLID PLAY: LeSean McCoy, Watkins* WORTH A LOOK: Robert Woods LAST RESORT: Tyrod Taylor, Charles Clay, Bills D/ST STAY AWAY: Dan Carepenter

Miami Dolphins

OPPONENT: AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, SUNDAY, NOON Miami gave Seattle all it could handle for 59 minutes, but fell just short of victory. The Dolphins can build on that defensive performance, but are going to need to a lot more than 10 points, 11 first downs and 214 yards on offense if they want to compete in this game. The Patriots might not be as stout as Seattle on defense, but they’re better than average. Assuming he has concluded his pouting fit, Jay Ajayi should return this week to back up Arian Foster.

SOLID PLAY: Jarvis Landry WORTH A LOOK: Foster LAST RESORT: Ajayi, Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Stills STAY AWAY: Andrew Franks, Dolphins D/ST

Los Angeles Rams

OPPONENT: VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, SUNDAY, 3:05 In the opening week in San Francisco, the Rams managed a grand total of zero points, 185 net offensive yards and had as many penalties (10) as first downs. Hey, if the Rams continue playing like that, management will probably double the length of Jeff Fisher’s proposed contract extension. That’s a snarky way of saying that L.A. is a very poorly run team. Although it would be nearly impossible for the Rams to continue playing as bad as they did Monday night, a date with Seattle doesn’t exactly scream “bounce-back game.” The Seahawks yielded just 214 yards and 10 points in their opener against Miami.

SOLID PLAY: Todd Gurley WORTH A LOOK: Rams D/ST LAST RESORT: Tavon Austin STAY AWAY: Case Keenum, Kenny Britt, Lance Kendricks, Greg Zuerlein

ALSO BEWARE

Kansas City Chiefs

OPPONENT: AT HOUSTON TEXANS, SUNDAY, NOON Do you remember Houston’s opening-round playoff loss to Kansas City that ended their 2015 season?

The Texans do.

San Francisco 49ers

OPPONENT: AT CAROLINA PANTHERS, SUNDAY, NOON Carlos Hyde is a solid play here, but (in most leagues) we recommend sitting any other Niners this week.

* — Check injury status

By JOHN

E

SAHLY

jsahly@shawmedia.com

arly-season DFS might be my favorite time in fantasy football.

We had our preseason projections all sussed out.

We thought we knew who the studs were, who was ready to fall flat, and who the big sleepers were. Pricing came out a month early, so we knew the value plays that would open up the opportunity to roster the big-money players.

And then, you didn’t roster Willie Snead (9 receptions, 172 yards, 1 TD).

Because Michael Thomas was the hot rookie. And Saints coach Sean Payton even said to get Thomas on your fantasy team.

Never forget that Payton hates your fantasy team, both season-long and DFS. And then you didn’t roster A.J. Green, either. Even though I told you don’t be worried, even about his Week 1 matchup with Darrelle Revis.

Now, we have an entire one week’s worth of data. It’s the very definition of small sample size, and the race to overreact to that one week has start-

ed.

The question is, how do you find the correct signal among all of the noise created by one week?

This is a question I posed last week to Fantasy Labs’ co-founder Jonathan Bales on the PFW Fantasy Football podcast. He said that in Week 2 and the early part of the season, when we don’t have the pricing inefficiencies created in Week 1 by salaries being released on DFS sites a month early, he typically sees people overreact to Week 1. That creates a higher ownership of moderately valued players.

“The first month of the season, we’re going to see ownership on chalk that’s going to be roughly the same as in Week 10, but in Week 10 we have so much more data,” Bales said. “We know so much more about these teams and these players. So I think that the data is still valuable, but you use it in a different way and there’s just way more value in getting away from chalk I think in tournaments.”

Bottom line: Pay attention to ownership for the next few weeks. If you’re in a tournament, especially a large-field tournament, an easy way

to get ahead of the field is to make a leverage play against what you believe will be a highly owned player.

Here are two such examples for Week 2: Gary Barnidge might be the most popular Week 2 tight end, at least as of the early part of the week. I’m projecting him at about 20 percent ownership this week in tournaments.

There are good reasons for this: Barnidge with Josh McCown last year: 600 yards and six touchdowns.

Cleveland’s QB this week: Josh McCown. Barnidge vs. Baltimore last year in two games: 15 receptions on 21 targets for 230 yards and a touchdown. Barnidge is just $4,000 on DraftKings and priced as the 11thmost expensive tight end in the main slate.

See? Good reasons to play Barnidge, and I’m all over him in my cash games.

But in tournaments, I’m looking to leverage against Barnidge and say those targets go elsewhere against an inconsistent Ravens’ secondary that added Eric Weddle – one of the best safeties that can cover a tight end – and is likely more focused on

stopping Barnidge this time. Corey Coleman is just $4,700 and Terrelle Pryor is just $3,500.

Boy, Drew Brees looked great against the Raiders, didn’t he? He’s healthy. Brandin Cooks was phenomenal. Willie Snead was great on your bench. And the Giants were bad last year on defense and got to face a rookie QB last week.

I’m not saying go out of your way to avoid Brees, but depending on the site you play, Brees is about 4-5 points worse on the road vs. at home.

The Giants’ defense looks legitimately better and now doesn’t have to face the best offensive line in football.

In the same game, Eli Manning is $600 cheaper on DraftKings, and makes for a nice stack with Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,500) and either Sterling Shepard ($5,200) or Victor Cruz ($4,300) against a Saints defense that just gave up 35 points and looks every bit as awful as last season. Plus, top Saints CB Delvin Breaux is out six weeks.

Thinking about ownership and leveraging yourself away from the chalkiest of plays can go a long way, especially this early in the season.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

DFS: We have one week of data, now what?

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

AP PHOTO

Raekwon McMillan

Dede Westbrook

AP PHOTO

Plenty of NFL prospects on field as Ohio State visits Oklahoma

A

fter a Week 2 slate that really had no big games, this week we have a game that not only will be fun to watch, but might also have an effect on who will be in the College Football Playoff at season’s end.

Perhaps the best game of the week is Ohio State at Oklahoma. Oklahoma lost its opener at Houston and, if the Sooners want to have any chance of reaching the playoff, they have to win this home game.

OHIO STATE

Ohio State lost a number of players to the NFL last year, but that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes aren’t loaded with prospects. While the majority are underclassmen, we have seen in recent years that Head Coach Urban Meyer has no problem with the underclassmen leaving. He recruits so well that he just has excellent players waiting their turn to become starters. The top prospects to date …

LB Raekwon McMillan | The junior has instincts and athleticism.

Through two games, he has 12 total tackles and a pass broken up.

C-OG Pat Elflein | The fifth-year senior almost came out last year. The last two seasons he has played guard. This year, he has been moved to center. His versatility along with his strong play will get him drafted high.

fensive end. He received significant play time in 2015, finishing with 6.5 sacks. To date this season, he has 7.0 total tackles and 1.0 sacks.

DE Tyquan Lewis | The 6’3, 262 pound junior led Ohio State in sacks last year. That’s quite an accomplishment considGREG GABRIEL ering the other starter @greggabe at defensive end was Joey Bosa, who just happened to be a top five selection in QB J.T. Barrett | Barrett might not the 2016 draft. Lewis has marginal be as gifted a passer as some other height but his long arms, speed and quarterbacks in the country, but quickness make him an edge-rush there are few who have the strong terror. intangibles that Barrett has. BarOG Bill Price | Price is a three-year rett is a great athlete who can pass starter at guard. Like Elflein, he is and make plays with his feet. Goa consistent performer. Price does ing into this season, he had 17 total a good job getting and keeping posistarts, 3,826 total passing yards and tion with his blocks and knows how 45 touchdown passes. Barrett just to use his hands. keeps improving and could be a top NFL QB prospect by year’s end.

OKLAHOMA

DE Sam Hubbard | Hubbard is a very athletic third-year sophomore.

He was originally a safety, then moved to tight end and finally to de-

The Sooners don’t have the high number of prospects that they usually do going into the 2016 season.

Right now, there are only two se-

niors who look to be draftable prospects.

WR Dede Westbrook | At 5’11, 177 pounds, Westbrook is more of a slot receiver type. He is quick and shows the ability to get in and out of cuts fairly quickly. In the first two games, he has 12 receptions for 103 yards and no touchdowns.

S Ahmad Thomas | Thomas has good size (6’0 – 215) and range. In the first two games, he had 10 total tackles and no interceptions. Last year, he had three interceptions to go along with 62 total tackles.

Oklahoma’s best underclassman is redshirt junior defensive tackle Charles Walker. Walker had an excellent 2015 with 6.0 sacks and 36 total tackles. In the first two games this year, Walker has a total of only 5.0 tackles and no sacks. At present, Walker is best suited to play inside as a defensive tackle in a 4-3. If he gets a little bigger, he might be able to play as a 5-technique in a 3-4.

The other underclassman to take a peek at is junior corner Jordan Thomas. Thomas was an All Big 12 selection last year with 46 total tackles and five interceptions.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

QUARTERBACKS

Newton needed the extra rest and should enjoy going from Denver to home versus the Niners. Coming off a monster outing, Stafford breaks into top 10.

1. Cam Newton, Panthers vs. 49ers 2. Drew Brees, Saints @ Giants 3. Eli Manning, Giants vs. Saints 4. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Bengals 5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ Vikings 6. Matthew Stafford, Lions vs. Titans 7. Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Falcons 8. Carson Palmer, Cardinals vs. Bucs 9. Blake Bortles, Jaguars @ Chargers 10. Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ Rams 11. Andy Dalton, Bengals @ Steelers 12. Andrew Luck, Colts @ Broncos 13. Philip Rivers, Chargers vs. Jaguars 14. Kirk Cousins, Washington vs. Cowboys 15. Matt Ryan, Falcons @ Raiders 16. Jameis Winston, Bucs @ Cardinals 17. Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots vs. Dolphins 18. Brock Osweiler, Texans vs. Chiefs 19. Marcus Mariota, Titans @ Lions 20. Carson Wentz, Eagles @ Bears

RUNNING BACKS

Anderson gets a plum matchup after the Colts made Detroit’s run game viable. Peterson usually goes off in Week Two, but it’ll be a concern if he struggles again.

1. David Johnson, Cardinals vs. Bucs 2. Lamar Miller, Texans vs. Chiefs 3. C.J. Anderson, Broncos vs. Colts 4. DeAngelo Williams, Steelers vs. Bengals 5. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys @ Washington 6. Adrian Peterson, Vikings vs. Packers 7. Matt Forte, Jets @ Bills 8. Latavius Murray, Raiders vs. Falcons 9. Mark Ingram, Saints @ Giants 10. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers vs. 49ers 11. DeMarco Murray, Titans @ Lions 12. Jeremy Langford, Bears vs. Eagles 13. Eddie Lacy, Packers @ Vikings 14. Ryan Mathews, Eagles @ Bears 15. Spencer Ware, Chiefs @ Texans 16. Carlos Hyde, 49ers @ Panthers 17. LeSean McCoy, Bills vs. Jets 18. Devonta Freeman, Falcons @ Raiders 19. Todd Gurley, Rams vs. Seahawks 20. Doug Martin, Bucs @ Cardinals 21. Melvin Gordon, Chargers vs. Jaguars 22. Rashad Jennings, Giants vs. Saints 23. Ameer Abdullah, Lions vs. Titans 24. Jeremy Hill, Bengals @ Steelers 25. Arian Foster, Dolphins @ Patriots 26. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars @ Chargers 27. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots vs. Dolphins 28. Danny Woodhead, Chargers vs. Jaguars 29. Christine Michael, Seahawks @ Rams 30. Matt Jones, Washington vs. Cowboys 31. Giovani Bernard, Bengals @ Steelers 32. Thomas Rawls, Seahawks @ Rams 33. Frank Gore, Colts @ Broncos 34. Isaiah Crowell, Browns vs. Ravens

Cam Newton

AP PHOTO

35. Tevin Coleman, Falcons @ Raiders 36. Justin Forsett, Ravens @ Browns

WIDE RECEIVERS

Beckham has a better matchup, but

Brown looks unstoppable right now. Will Fuller makes a big leap up our board.

1. Antonio Brown, Steelers vs. Bengals 2. Odell Beckham, Giants vs. Saints 3. A.J. Green, Bengals @ Steelers 4. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans vs. Chiefs 5. Julio Jones, Falcons @ Raiders 6. Allen Robinson, Jaguars @ Chargers 7. Alshon Jeffery, Bears vs. Eagles 8. Amari Cooper, Raiders vs. Falcons 9. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers vs. 49ers 10. Brandin Cooks, Saints @ Giants 11. Mike Evans, Bucs @ Cardinals 12. Dez Bryant, Cowboys @ Washington 13. Brandon Marshall, Jets @ Bills 14. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos vs. Colts 15. Jordan Matthews, Eagles @ Bears 16. Jordy Nelson, Packers @ Vikings 17. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks @ Rams 18. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals vs. Bucs 19. Eric Decker, Jets @ Bills 20. Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs @ Texans 21. Will Fuller, Texans vs. Chiefs 22. Willie Snead, Saints @ Giants 23. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins @ Patriots 24. Golden Tate, Lions vs. Titans 25. Julian Edelman, Patriots vs. Dolphins 26. DeSean Jackson, Washington vs. Dallas 27. Donte Moncrief, Colts @ Broncos

David Johnson

AP PHOTO

28. Michael Floyd, Cardinals vs. Bucs 29. Marvin Jones, Lions vs. Titans 30. T.Y. Hilton, Colts @ Broncos 31. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos vs. Colts 32. Michael Crabtree, Raiders vs. Falcons 33. Sammy Watkins*, Bills vs. Jets 34. Stefon Diggs, Vikings vs. Packers 35. Travis Benjamin, Chargers vs. Jaguars 36. Sterling Shepard, Giants vs. Saints

TIGHT ENDS

Zach Ertz is out with a rib injury. Be sure to check Gronk’s status. If he’s out, move Bennett up three spots.

1. Jordan Reed, Washington vs. Cowboys 2. Greg Olsen, Panthers vs. 49ers 3. Rob Gronkowski*, Patriots vs. Dolphins 4. Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ Texans 5. Delanie Walker, Titans @ Lions 6. Julius Thomas*, Jaguars @ Chargers 7. Jason Witten, Cowboys @ Washington 8. Martellus Bennett, Patriots vs. Dolphins 9. Eric Ebron, Lions vs. Titans 10. Gary Barnidge, Browns vs. Ravens 11. Antonio Gates, Chargers vs. Jaguars 12. Virgil Green, Broncos vs. Colts 13. Zach Miller, Bears vs. Eagles 14. Jesse James, Steelers vs. Bengals 15. Dwayne Allen, Colts @ Broncos 16. Coby Fleener, Saints @ Giants 17. Clive Walford, Raiders vs. Falcons 18. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings vs. Packers 19. Jared Cook, Packers @ Vikings 20. Jimmy Graham*, Seahawks @ Rams

Antonio Brown

AP PHOTO

PLACEKICKERS 1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots vs. Dolphins 2. Graham Gano, Panthers vs. 49ers 3. Matt Prater, Lions vs. Titans 4. Justin Tucker, Ravens @ Browns 5. Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals vs. Bucs 6. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders vs. Falcons 7. Mason Crosby, Packers @ Vikings 8. Steven Hauschka, Seahawks @ Rams 9. Chris Boswell, Steelers vs. Bengals 10. Dan Bailey, Cowboys @ Washington 11. Brandon McManus, Broncos vs. Colts 12. Nick Novak, Texans vs. Chiefs 13. Blair Walsh, Vikings vs. Packers 14. Josh Brown, Giants vs. Saints 15. Dustin Hopkins, Washington vs. Cowboys

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS 1. Seahawks @ Rams 2. Panthers vs. 49ers 3. Patriots vs. Dolphins 4. Texans vs. Chiefs 5. Jets @ Bills 6. Broncos vs. Colts 7. Cardinals vs. Buccaneers 8. Ravens @ Browns 9. Packers @ Vikings 10. Chiefs @ Texans 11. Vikings vs. Packers 12. Eagles @ Bears 13. Lions vs. Titans 14. Bills vs. Jets 15. Dolphins @ Patriots

*Check injury status

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

Arkush: So Dan, we’re one weekend into the 2016 NFL season with 16 more to come and one of the hottest topics around the league is once again the question of what to do about concussions and traumatic brain injuries and what the NFL is doing. Is it enough? What can Roger Goodell and company do and what should they do to protect the players? The conversation got jump-started during the very first game of the season with what was done and wasn’t done to protect Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who took four separate vicious shots to the head, only one of which drew a penalty flag and that one was offset by an intentional grounding call. The NFL says its concussion protocol was followed, but I didn’t see it that way. What did you see?

McCaleb: Well, Hub, on the one play you mentioned that

Did the NFL fail Cam Newton in Week 1?

NATE ATKINS HUB ARKUSH was flagged, Broncos safety Darian Stewart launched himself at Newton, hitting the ear hole of Newton’s helmet with the crown of his own. Newton fell face down before flopping over onto his back. He was in obvious pain and appeared disoriented. After he got back up, he returned to the huddle and played out the series. He wasn’t checked by anyone, let alone a team physician. How is that following concussion protocol? And the fact that three other helmet-to-helmet hits weren’t even penalized?

That’s disturbing. Is it possible the NFL still doesn’t get it?

Arkush: Dan, some would say it’s not that the NFL doesn’t get it, it’s that the league’s powers-that-be are

PATRICK FINLEY DAN McCALEB

more worried about the problem’s impact on their checkbooks. Obviously, you and I aren’t qualified to diagnose concussions in any event let alone seeing them occur on TV, but at least 10 or 15 million of the people watching the game knew instantly from Newton’s reaction that he had to be evaluated at the very least after the Brandon Marshall and Darian Stewart hits. Yet it took three days for NFL league spokesman Brian McCarthy to issue this statement on Sunday after the Thursday night game: “The NFL is committed to the proper application of the concussion protocol. In order to ensure that it is being applied across all 32 teams, we have decided to initiate a review of the medical

team’s response to the Cam Newton tackle.” What could they possibly be reviewing?

McCaleb: From what the public saw, there was no medical team response, at least not in the immediate aftermath of the hits. Not that the NFL needs more delays in action, but for the well-being of the players, any time a helmet-to-helmet hit occurs, maybe the head official needs to be trained to do an initial evaluation of the players involved. If there’s any doubt in the official’s mind, he should be able to send the player to the sideline for further evaluation.

Is that putting too much on the referee?

Arkush: Dan, I think the answer is a question. Is there too

much we can ask of officials, coaches, team owners and, yes, Roger Goodell, to protect these players from traumatic brain injuries and the damage they can do to a player for the rest of his life? Some think I’m too hard on Goodell, but we saw him all over this weekend patting himself on the back for “getting it right with Deflategate” when everybody knows he embarrassed himself, the league and the game with how wrong he was on that and pretty much everything he’s touched the last few years other than money. But where is he on this, almost certainly the most serious and important issue facing the game today?

McCaleb: Goodell and the rest of the NFL get no sympathy from me on this issue. The league covered up the concussion problem for years. Even though they’ve taken steps to address it, there remains an infuriating lack of transparency and urgency on Goodell’s part. The commissioner should be asking the hard questions when debacles like the Broncos-Panthers game occur, not hiding and hoping the public and media forget about it.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

In this week’s Take 2, Pro Football Weekly Editor Hub Arkush and Editorial Director Dan McCaleb discuss the helmet-to-helmet hits against Cam Newton and the NFL’s response.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016

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