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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
1 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2 DALLAS COWBOYS 3 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 4 NEW YORK GIANTS 5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 6 ATLANTA FALCONS 7 OAKLAND RAIDERS 8 GREEN BAY PACKERS 9 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 10 BALTIMORE RAVENS 11 DETROIT LIONS 12 MIAMI DOLPHINS 13 TENNESSEE TITANS 14 DENVER BRONCOS 15 HOUSTON TEXANS 16 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 17 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 18 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 19 BUFFALO BILLS 20 CAROLINA PANTHERS 21 WASHINGTON 22 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Welcome to our ProFootballWeekly.com 23 ARIZONA CARDINALS NFL Week 16 Power Rankings SAN DIEGO CHARGERS The Steelers and Giants move into the top four of our Power Rankings and the Lions fall out 24 of the top 10 with two games to go. The Broncos also drop down, and the defending champs 25 CINCINNATI BENGALS may not even make the playoffs. 26 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 CHICAGO BEARS 28 LOS ANGELES RAMS 29 NEW YORK JETS 30 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 31 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 32 CLEVELAND BROWNS Dominant in Denver, no-brainer No. 1
Dak dunks doubters, Bucs, easy No. 2 Bell putting up MVP-type numbers
Flawed, sure, but who else is clearly better? Alex Smith’s tale of two halves vs. Titans
No doubting offense, can defense keep up? Shouldn’t have been that hard in San Diego
Four-game win streak, but won ugly in Chicago Nice bounce on Rams, but can’t ignore Green Bay Barely hung on vs. Philly; have to play better vs. Pitt With Dallas and Green Bay left, can they hang on? Well, Matt Moore won’t be a problem
Clearly better than we thought; the K.C. win was huge
Power Rankings
Defense still great, not super; offense is awful Savage saves the day; stick a fork in Osweiler Not quite ready for prime-time yet
OK, who saw Vikings slaughter coming?
Hard to believe but have to ask: Zimmer’s team quit? Let’s see how players feel about Rex next two weeks Rivera keeps them playing for pride in D.C.
Breathing, but Monday night bad time for clunker We knew they could score points, just no ‘D’ Hard to put finger on, something very wrong Ridiculous injuries, McCoy keeps them coming Zero character; team needs a change at the top Wentz has hit wall, needs help around him
AP PHOTO
Another loser that keeps on fighting
Why do people think this is such a plum job? You’d think Bowles deserves another shot but... Will be interesting next year; was Bradley the problem?
After their last-second victory over the Bears Sunday afternoon, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers control their own playoff destiny
Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.
Not sure why Baalke or Kelly should stay
Nothing clever left to say; not worth watching
A
re the Bears really just a terrible 3-11 football team with little hope for the future and in need of changes at almost every level, from top management through the coaching staff and throughout the locker room? If you think about it, that’s been the bulk of the conversation over the second half of this season as national reporters have offered poorly sourced stories, first about a consultant coming in to evaluate the football operations, and then a legendary GM being brought in to oversee the current GM. Or are they actually a team capable of playing much better, say 7-9 or even 8-8 football, were it not for an NFL-leading 18 players on injured reserve, including their two top quarterbacks, and having lost arguably their best offensive and best defensive players to four-game suspensions? Honestly folks, as I kick this around, I see them more as the latter than the former. No, injuries are absolutely not an excuse. But how has everyone forgotten so quickly this organization was the laughingstock of the NFL just 23 months ago, and in the first year of
competing for nine or a complete rebuild 10 wins and a playoff they were a team at spot? least looking like it If those 17 players was heading in the can each play 12-16 right direction? games next year, With nothing to and hopefully most keep other than Kyle of them get closer to Long, Alshon Jeffery, Willie Young 16, I don’t know that and maybe Jay Cutthey’re that far away ler and Kyle Fuller, at all. in two seasons the What do they need Bears have added to make it happen? Jordan Howard, JerThe Bears are curemy Langford, Kevin rently 24th in the NFL HUB ARKUSH White, Cameron Merin run/pass ratio, havharkush@ProFootballWeekly.com edith, Josh Sitton, ing thrown the ball 816 @Hub_Arkush Cody Whitehair, Bobtimes and run it 317 by Massie, Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldtimes for a 38.85 percent mark. man, Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee, More damning, only the Detroit Lions (309) and Cleveland Browns (288) Jerrell Freeman, Danny Trevathan have fewer rushing attempts than the and Tracy Porter. Bears, and the Lions, Packers and RaObviously we’ll get no consensus vens are the only winning teams with on Cutler, nor do we have any performance to judge Fuller on, but doesn’t lower ratios. it seem possible those other 17 playJohn Fox needs to figure out if ers can be good, solid, everyday startthis really is the offensive scheme he ers and at least four or five of them claimed as his. have real playmaking potential? The Bears also need a stud at left Why isn’t anyone asking the questackle, someone to anchor the line tion: How far away is this team realand lead the charge rather than a guy ly from being where it should be in who’s good enough to get by with, and Year 3 of the new regime, capable of they need a healthy Zach Miller and a
starter in front of him with the skills of a Martellus Bennett. On defense, they need at least one more true five-technique, a big body that can demand double-teams and free up pass rushers. And they need two safeties, at least one of whom can be a game-wrecker in the Earl Thomas/Eric Berry mold, and two more cornerbacks, although I’m not convinced yet that some of those guys aren’t already here in the form of Deiondre’ Hall, Cre’Von LeBlanc, Bryce Callahan and Deon Bush. Finally, of course, there is the quarterback, who I don’t think is here and won’t be easy to find – but do you have to find him right away? Take a close look at the Miami Dolphins’ depth chart, a team that was also 6-10 a year ago and 1-4 11 weeks ago. They are slightly better than the Bears on the offensive and defensive lines, not as good at running back or linebacker, and similar everywhere else. A Ryan Tannehill-type talent isn’t that hard to find. They’ve already got the nine wins the Bears need to get next year. Maybe these Bears aren’t as far away as you think they are.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
The Bears might not be as far away as most think
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
Bears rushing offense vs Washington run defense Jordan Howard reached the 1,000-yard mark last week, and he did it in 42 fewer carries than Matt Forte needed in his rookie season of 2008. Howard has a great opportunity to build on his sensational rookie campaign against a Washington defense that gives up 4.5 yards per carry (28th in the league). Its defense is banged up, and without Will Compton and Su’a Cravens, Washington let Jonathan Stewart rush for 132 yards on 25 carries on Monday night (5.3-yard average). That Monday night game takes away a day of rest for Washing-
involved to force Washington’s defense to stop the run before letting Matt Barkley air it out.
EDGE u BEARS
Bears passing offense vs Washington pass defense ton players before they travel to Chicago, another advantage for the Bears. Howard got going in the second half against the Packers with 10 carries for 68 yards after halftime. This game would be ideal to get Howard 25-plus carries, and maybe even find a way to get Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey
Washington has playmakers on its pass defense, from Josh Norman at cornerback to pass rushers Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy, but opposing QBs have a 94.4 rating while completing 66.3 percent of passes. Matt Barkley had an impressive fourth quarter against the Packers, rallying the
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DOLPHINS AT BILLS
’Phins made lots of flashy signings this offseason, none bigger now than re-signing Matt Moore. Rex Ryan preparing for what looks like his final home game in Buffalo.
FALCONS AT PANTHERS
In past four wins, Falcons 164, foes 74. Too little, too late for Panthers, but reigning conference champs still showing a lot of pride.
WASHINGTON AT BEARS
Washington has a short week to recover after squandering playoff destiny. Lose final two and Chicago will have its worst record since NFL went to 16-game schedule.
CHARGERS AT BROWNS
Sad that the Bolts may feel more at home in Cleveland than San Diego. Robert Griffin III earns third start to pursue first passing touchdown.
VIKINGS AT PACKERS
Minnesota on cusp of becoming sixth team since 1990 to miss playoffs following a 5-0 start. Green Bay closing in on 6-0 finish to secure eighth consecutive playoff berth.
Josh Norman
Alshon Jeffery
Bears back after he threw two picks in the third quarter. Having Alshon Jeffery back is a boost to the passing game and the protection has been sound, which will be important against a Washington ‘D’ that is ninth in sacks per pass attempt thanks to Kerrigan (11 sacks, 19 QB hits) and Murphy (eight sacks, 23 QB hits). Washington has struggled this season covering the tight end, so Daniel Brown could have some opportunities up the seam, though he is not the weapon that Zach Miller would have been. Washington has not been a great takeaway team (only eight interceptions, though that’s more than Chicago’s seven). Washington’s ‘D’ is aggressive, but this is hardly a strength for either team. Slight edge to the side with more talent.
EDGE u WASHINGTON
Washington rushing offense vs Bears run defense Vic Fangio said Washington has good balance on offense, and its run game is going for 4.4 yards per carry, just behind the Bears, but it was awful vs. Carolina on Monday. Robert Kelley had nine carries for eight yards. On the season, though, he’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has six scores. Kelley can be a load to bring down, so the Bears will have to tackle much better than they did in a putrid showing against the Packers, when Green Bay and Ty Montgomery went off for 226 rushing yards at 9.8 yards a pop, sending the Bears’ run defense down the rankings. Getting Jerrell Freeman back should help, certainly in the tackling department, but if Eddie Goldman can’t go, that’s a knock on what the Bears can do against Kelley. With as much as Washington throws it, it’s easy for defenses to ignore the run game, which has led to strong performances from Kelley. However, Washington’s lead back has not rushed for more than 63 yards since Nov. 20. Slight advantage to the Bears’ front seven.
EDGE u BEARS
AP PHOTOS
Washington passing offense vs Bears pass defense Kirk Cousins is second in the NFL in passing yards. His 67.5-percent completion rate ranks fifth and he has an impressive 98.3 passer rating after a tough start to his franchise-tag season. Cousins threw it a ton vs. Carolina, but was not effective – 315 passing yards, no touchdowns, one interception. He is an accurate quarterback who can beat teams short or deep. He torched the Bears last season (24-of-31 passing for 300 yards) and has a great trio of receivers – DeSean Jackson, who can blow the top off a defense, slot man Jamison Crowder, who is having a breakout season, and veteran Pierre Garcon, who is always a tough cover. Then there’s tight end Jordan Reed, who – if he plays through an injury – has lit up the Bears in his last two outings (18 catches on 18 targets for 254 yards). That pass-catching group is a lot for a young Bears secondary to handle. The pass rush will be key. The Bears are up to third in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt, but Washington – led by left tackle Trent Williams – is third in the NFL in sacks allowed.
EDGE u WASHINGTON
Sunday’s overall edge Washington is very good on punt returns with Crowder (third in the NFL), but the Bears have been solid in coverage of late with Josh Bellamy and Sherrick McManis. Third down and red zone will be important as always, as Washington’s offense is fourth in the NFL on third down, but 28th in the red zone. Its defense is 30th on third down and 25th in the red zone. Washington gives up 24.5 points per game, so the Bears will get chances to put up points and sustain drives. Washington is the better team that still has hope of the playoffs. The Bears are playing everyone close of late and should do the same on Christmas Eve.
EDGE u WASHINGTON
TITANS AT JAGUARS
Titans one win from forcing Week 17 AFC South title game at home, which Mike Mularkey can earn by beating former team that just canned his replacement.
JETS AT PATRIOTS
What will it take for us to see Christian Hackenberg make his NFL debut vs. Belichick in Foxborough? The Patriots beat Broncos in Denver to clinch top seed without a TD from Brady.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS
Bucs hope Jameis Winston got that fourth quarter in Dallas out of his system for good with time left to recover. Drew Brees isn’t broken, after all, but Saints’ title window might be.
COLTS AT RAIDERS
Where did that come from, Colts, and can you do it twice more? For the first time in 14 years, welcome back to the playoff party, Oakland.
49ERS AT RAMS
Could this be the week the 49ers snap their 13-game losing streak? The Rams might want to sit Jared Goff in order to preserve the allure of their new head-coaching vacancy.
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS
Larry Fitzgerald, 33 and a national treasure, leads the NFL with 98 catches. The Seahawks have their fourth NFC West crown in past seven seasons.
BENGALS AT TEXANS
Houston has admitted it has a Brock Osweiler problem and turned to Tom Savage, who’ll make his first start. Will Mike Brown decide after the season he has a Marvin Lewis problem?
RAVENS AT STEELERS
Steelers are the AFC’s hottest club and can lock up the North on Christmas, while the Ravens keep surviving but need two more wins to get in.
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS
Denver, unraveling on and off the field, needs a lot more help than Chiefs, who may have squandered title hopes with ugly home loss but are still in control of top wild card.
LIONS AT COWBOYS
When Dak Prescott says he isn’t distracted by the noise, he apparently means it. Detroit no longer controls NFC North title hopes, magic carpet ride in jeopardy of crashing short of playoffs.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
GIANTS AT EAGLES
Janoris Jenkins avoids serious injury, G-Men can likely avoid letdown without him vs. perhaps NFL’s worst WR corps. Eagles apparently decide not to be an easy out for playoff hopefuls.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
(+3½) Hub
Kevin
Arthur
Bob
Adam
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BEARS 23 WASHINGTON 27
BEARS 20 WASHINGTON 18
BEARS 20 WASHINGTON 26
BEARS 23 WASHINGTON 21
BEARS 27 WASHINGTON 24
With Washington still alive in the playoff chase, Cousins carves up Bears young DBs for must win.
Bears can’t lose every close game, right? Well, they can, but this one they close out.
Matt Barkley has some Kirk Cousins in him, but Cousins has the weapons Barkley lacks.
Washington still has playoff hopes. That won’t be enough against a Bears team still playing hard.
Washington’s week is short, and the whole team struggled in its loss to the Panthers. Give me the Bears.
SEASON RECORD: 9-5 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 7-7
SEASON RECORD: 10-4 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 5-9
SEASON RECORD: 10-4 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 8-5-1
SEASON RECORD: 9-5 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 6-8
SEASON RECORD: 8-6 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 5-7-2
ARKUSH
FISHBAIN
ARKUSH
LEGERE
JAHNS
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Kristin
Eric
Dan
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The Herald-News
Kendall County Record
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Kankakee Daily Journal
BEARS 21 WASHINGTON 17
BEARS 25 WASHINGTON 30
BEARS 20 WASHINGTON 26
BEARS 22 WASHINGTON 24
BEARS 27 WASHINGTON 24
Keep being surprised the Bears haven’t packed it up for the year yet. This one is certainly winnable.
Two teams that like to turn the ball over, but it’s Washington that makes the game-changing plays this week.
Washington has something to play for, at least.
I’ll admit I have no idea how either team is going to respond after tough losses last week, so I’ll go with the favorite.
Washington’s soft defense provides the perfect target for Jordan Howard’s next monster day.
SEASON RECORD: 12-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 10-4
SEASON RECORD: 8-6 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 5-9
SEASON RECORD: 6-8 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 6-8
SEASON RECORD: 9-5 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 6-8
SEASON RECORD: 11-3 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 7-7
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Draft order is important for rebuilding Bears
C
ornerback Kyle Fuller was good once. Remember that? He made big plays. He provided hope. Heck, at some point, he was considered the long-term replacement for Charles Tillman. So what the heck happened? There are plenty of reasons for Fuller’s fall from grace. But his plummet is another example of why the draft order is important. Plenty of picks are blown, but it’s still best to have the higher pick, especially if you’re rebuilding like the Bears are. In the long term, the most important factor is having the right people in place to handle the drafts. And right now, it’s so far so good for general manager Ryan Pace. But Fuller’s situation has turned into a classic case of what might have been because defensive tackle Aaron Donald nearly fell to the Bears in 2014. The Rams, formerly of St. Louis, selected Donald with the 13th overall selection before former general manager Phil Emery took Fuller at No. 14. A first-team All-Pro selection last season, Donald is arguably the best
defensive player in the If Pace doesn’t make league. He’s an unstopthat move, Floyd likely pable force with 27 sacks is a member of the New over three seasons. York Giants, who had the And then it happened No. 10 pick, and the Bears again in 2015. might be wondering what Defensive tackle Leonmight have been for the ard Williams nearly fell third consecutive year. to the Bears before the New York Jets, who were Rookie linebacker Nick loaded on the defensive Kwiatkoski’s bad day line, selected him with against the Green Bay the sixth overall pick. Packers didn’t bother the Pace took receiver Kevin ADAM JAHNS Bears too much. It’s part White at No. 7. ajahns@ww.com of his learning process. It’s unknown what @ajahns Coach John Fox and White will be in the NFL defensive coordinator Vic after undergoing his secFangio actually spent more time this ond surgery on his lower left leg in week discussing Kwiatkoski’s ability two years. But Williams has blosto break up a screen on the play prior somed into a stalwart for the Jets. He to quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ 60has seven sacks this season. yard bomb to receiver Jordy Nelson. But here’s a positive: Kwiatkoski tackled running back Missing out on Donald and WilTy Montgomery for a one-yard loss liams makes the Bears’ bold move to and hurt guard Lane Taylor in the trade up to the No. 9 pick this year process. to draft outside linebacker Leonard “[I’ve] been very pleased just with Floyd look even better. his progress,” Fangio said “With the Pace saw a player he liked and opportunities that he’s had, he’s done made a move to ensure he gets him. He didn’t let him fall. well. He’s always had a play here or
•••
there he’d like to do over, which we all do, but I like his progress. I like his future, and I think he’s a nice fourth-round pick for us.”
•••
This week’s thought about the draft: the Raiders struck gold in 2014. With two picks, they changed their entire organization and direction, but it didn’t involve forcing the issue at quarterback. The Raiders, who clinched their first playoff berth since 2002, selected outside linebacker Khalil Mack at No. 5 and quarterback Derek Carr in the second round at No. 36. There were three quarterbacks that were drafted before Carr: Blake Bortles (No. 3, Jaguars), Johnny Manziel (No. 22, Browns) and Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32 Vikings). If the Bears’ evaluations warrant drafting a quarterback in the top five this year, then they should do it. The Bears need a quarterback for the future. But it’s important to not allow the need of one influence everything. It can lead to disastrous results. See Bortles and Manziel.
LeBlanc’s impressive rookie season shouldn’t be overshadowed by one mistake
C
re’Von LeBlanc is representative of a Bears secondary that has suffered through some acute growing pains this year, but one that also has played better than expected and provided optimism going forward. The 22-year-old rookie was one of the goats in the Bears’ devastating 3027 loss to the Packers in Week 14. He was the one victimized on the 60-yard Aaron Rodgers-to-Jordy Nelson pass in the final seconds, which set up the Packers’ game-winning field goal. Nelson, on a play that began with 31 seconds remaining, inexplicably got behind LeBlanc. Even more inexplicable was a coverage call that provided no safety help on the play that positioned the Packers at the Bears’ 14-yard line. After Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock with three seconds remaining, the winning kick came as time expired. But LeBlanc has come a long way this season. He went undrafted out of Florida Atlantic, signed with the Patriots, was cut and then signed with the Bears, where he has been a bright
spot in a 3-11 season. veteran Tracy Porter. The 5-foot-11, 190-poundLeBlanc is one of six er has started eight rookies or second-year straight games after being players in the secondary inactive for the first two, who have logged significant snaps for the Bears and he appears to have a this season. They have future in Chicago. That’s contributed to a defense why Fox refused to single that’s No. 6 in passing out LeBlanc for criticism yards allowed. But they but offered advice instead. “In playing the secondalso have learned some ary, you’ve got to have a hard lessons, as they did short memory,” Fox said. against the Packers. “You’re going to get beat. “Like I said, somebody BOB LeGERE If you haven’t been beat relegated some of the rlegere@dailyherald.com as a corner, you haven’t questions just to the sec@BobLeGere ondary,” Fox said. “(But) played. “Those things hapthey’re giving all they’ve pen. When you’re in the arena like got. That’s all, from my perspective, that and you get beat, it’s how you you can ask. We just haven’t won respond that’s critical. I think (LeBenough. I think they understand how lanc) is a tough young man who will close we are.” respond right.” Bryce Callahan, a second-year playA week earlier, LeBlanc returned er from Rice who also was undrafted, his first NFL interception 24 yards has started nine games, including five for a touchdown against the Lions, as the nickel corner. And 22-year-old Deiondre’ Hall, anwhich gave the Bears a 17-13 lead other fourth-round pick this year who with 7:07 left, but they couldn’t hang has one of the Bears’ seven intercepon. LeBlanc has nine pass breakups, tied for the team lead with nine-year tions, is starting to see more snaps.
The Bears are just as young at safety. Adrian Amos started 16 games as a rookie last year when he was a fifthround draft pick out of Penn State. He’s started 12 of 14 games this season and is fourth on the team with 58 tackles, although he still needs to make more plays on the ball. This year’s fourth-round pick, Deon Bush, has started the past five games, replacing Harold Jones-Quartey, who was undrafted out of Findlay in 2015, and is third on the Bears with 61 tackles. Aside from that one big play Sunday, the Bears’ secondary played well vs. the Packers. It prevented Rodgers from throwing a touchdown pass for the first time in 23 games, and contributed to the four sacks with tight coverage. But all that was overshadowed by one spectacular third-down play by Rodgers, who is 15-3 against the Bears in games he’s started and finished. The Packers converted only two other third downs on nine opportunities. “Actually, we had a decent day on third down,” Fox said. “They just made a really good play.”
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Tips for those still playing in Week 16 By J.C.
offense is 27th in yards and they are traveling to face the Eagles’ 12th-ranked defense. Philly is in last place in the NFC East, but is 4-2 at home. New York has struggled all year on the ground. The Giants are ranked 30th in rushing yards and produce just 81 per game. If a New York RB were to produce, we’d give the nod to Paul Perkins. He ran for 56 yards on 11 carries last week versus the Lions. Rashad Jennings had 18 carries but produced only 38 yards. Jennings is averaging 3.2 yards per carry this season, down from 4.4 a season ago. This is also not a great fantasy matchup for the Eagles. The Giants give up just 17.9 points per game. MUST START: Odell Beckham SOLID PLAY: None WORTH A LOOK: Eli Manning, Perkins, Sterling Shepherd, Giants D/ST LAST RESORT: Jennings, Robbie Gould STAY AWAY: Shane Vereen, Victor Cruz, Will Tye
TALON
T
Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com
his is championship week for most fantasy leagues: A tip of the cap to those of you who are still in the hunt for a title. The holidays have created an unusual NFL schedule, but it appears that no NFL team will be resting their starters for the playoffs … at least for this week. On to week 16 …
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT New England Patriots
OPPONENT: VS NEW YORK JETS, SATURDAY, NOON New England has been held under 30 points eight times this season, but it’s unlikely to get to nine this week. At this point, the Jets are phoning it in … if they’re even bothering to pick up the phone. Gang Green has been thoroughly embarrassed in two of the last three games. They did beat the pathetic 49ers in Week 14, but gave up 248 yards rushing in that game. Future Hall-of-Famer Matt Moore (assuming Harts High School has a HOF) just lit them up for four TD passes. Martellus Bennett is not filling the void created when Gronk went down. Julian Edelman has 44 catches in the past six games, but only one TD. It’s always risky starting a NE running back. Dion Lewis led the team in carries and yards (18 for 95) last week, but LeGarrette Blount (15 TDs this year) remains the No. 1 option at the goal line. MUST START: Tom Brady, Blount, Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots D/ST SOLID PLAY: Lewis, Edelman WORTH A LOOK: Bennett, Malcolm Mitchell LAST RESORT: James White, Chris Hogan
Indianapolis Colts
OPPONENT: AT OAKLAND RAIDERS, SATURDAY, 3:05 The Colts have a Jekyll and Hyde offense, to be sure, but they play much better on the road than at home. In their last four away games, Indy has scored 34, 31, 41, and 34 points, respectively. In those four games, they averaged 35 points – 9.1 points better than their season average. In their last four home games, they’ve scored just 60 points – total – an average of 15 per game. MUST START: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton SOLID PLAY: Donte Moncrief* (if active) Adam Vinatieri WORTH A LOOK: Phillip Dorsett (if no Moncrief) LAST RESORT: Robert Turbin, Erik Swoope, Dwayne Allen, Jack Doyle STAY AWAY: Colts D/ST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OPPONENT: AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SATURDAY, 3:25 Jameis Winston threw for just 184 yards and 0 TDs in a 16-11 win against the Saints on Dec. 11. Logic suggests more points and more yards this time around. The Saints play better at home and average a league-leading 423 yards per game on offense. The Bucs will need to score a bunch to win. Tampa is in luck: New Orleans gives up 28 points per game. MUST START: Mike Evans, Cameron Brate SOLID PLAY: Winston, Doug Martin
Cincinnati Bengals
LeGarrette Blount has 15 touchdowns this year WORTH A LOOK: Roberto Aguayo LAST RESORT: Adam Humphries STAY AWAY: Charles Sims, Bucs D/ST
Seattle Seahawks
OPPONENT: VS ARIZONA CARDINALS, SATURDAY, 3:25 These two teams last faced off in Week 7 and battled to a historically bad 6-6 tie. In the seven games since then, the Cardinals have given up 30, 20, 30, 38, 23, 26, and 48 points, respectively, for an average of 30.7 points allowed per game. For the season, only the 49ers yield more points than the Cardinals have given up during that span. Perhaps Arizona has the Seahawks’ number, but this could be a very different game than the last matchup. Seattle is tough at home and is battling for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. MUST START: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks D/ST SOLID PLAY: Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Steven Hauschka WORTH A LOOK: Thomas Rawls, Tyler Lockett
ALSO CONSIDER
Todd Gurley might finally get things going against the 49ers and their atrocious run defense. Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 101 yards last time the Broncos and Chiefs faced each other. If Denver’s vaunted pass defense has an Achilles’ heel, it would be tight ends. It should be another good week for LeSean McCoy: the Dolphins give up 4.8 yards per carry. Those in desperate need of a QB could consider Matt Barkley. He has thrown six TDs in his four starts and crested 300 yards twice. Washington gives up 258 passing yards per game. The Titans are a sneaky D/ST play this week. Only San Diego and the Jets have turned the ball over more than Jacksonville.
MATCHUPS TO AVOID New York Giants
OPPONENT: AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, THURSDAY, 7:25 The Giants may be 10-4, good buddy, but their
OPPONENT: AT HOUSTON TEXANS, SATURDAY, 7:25 The Texans have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL thus far this season. The Bengals are suffering through a miserable season and are particularly bad (2-5) on the road. A.J. Green could return this week. MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Green*, Tyler Eifert WORTH A LOOK: Jeremy Hill, Brandon LaFell (if no Green), Bengals D/ST LAST RESORT: Andy Dalton, LaFell (if Green active) STAY AWAY: Randy Bullock
Detroit Lions
OPPONENT: AT DALLAS COWBOYS, MONDAY, 7:30 Detroit is 29th in rushing yards and is averaging a paltry 21.5 points per game. The Lions have compiled a 9-5 record by playing conservative, mistake-free football. That template won’t be good enough to beat the 12-2 Cowboys in Dallas. The NFC Central title will likely come down to Week 17, making this game virtually meaningless to the Lions. If Theo Riddick (wrist) returns, it could provide a boost to Detroit’s anemic ground game. MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Golden Tate WORTH A LOOK: Matthew Stafford, Eric Ebron, Matt Prater LAST RESORT: Riddick*, Dwayne Washington (if no Riddick), Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin STAY AWAY: Lions D/ST
ALSO BEWARE
The Cowboys D/ST is playing well, but don’t bank your fantasy championship on them. Detroit has turned the ball over just 12 times all season. Le’Veon Bell managed just 32 yards on 14 carries last time he faced the Ravens. Can’t imagine anyone sitting Bell, but wanted to get that out there. Brandon Marshall has become an afterthought in the Jets’ passing “attack.” Time to give up on Allen Robinson. He has totaled 11 catches in his last five games. The Titans will likely beat the hapless Jags, but this is not a great matchup for Marcus Mariota. Jacksonville gives up just 210 passing yards per game.
* — Check injury status
By JOHN
I
SAHLY
jsahly@shawmedia.com
n this column space this season, I hope I’ve been able to help with a few lessons in daily fantasy sports. Most of these lessons revolve around how we think when it comes to constructing a fantasy football roster each week. How you confront recency bias, why you should take a hard look at some weather patterns (wind) over others (snow), with all of these lessons designed to put you in the best position to put together a winning DFS roster. This is the last “normal” week of DFS for the season. Week 17 always gets crazy, because an inordinate amount of value plays open up by the end of the week. When teams have basically quit on the season, or others are benching players or playing starters for only a half because a playoff spot is already cemented, underpriced guys become fantasy studs. You’ll be able to do pretty much any stars-and-scrubs lineup you want next week. But this week, I’m actually looking at some NFL coaches and lessons they’ve learned about their teams this season and trying to apply it for Week 16. Don’t be afraid to try something new. Ty Montgomery was the fantasy darling of last week, as Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy finally unleashed Montgomery with a full load of carries
Ty Montgomery at running back, leading to 162 yards. His number may be in the 80s, but Montgomery showed every bit the type of burst needed to succeed at running back. DFS sites still don’t know what price Montgomery should be, and they only recently moved him
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to RB. He’s just outside the top 10 running backs in price, with a date against the Vikings, who used to be a good defense. Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans finally got wise and benched Brock Osweiler for preseason stud Tom Savage. Savage has three years of experience with O’Brien’s system and, most importantly, an actual connection with DeAndre Hopkins. Remember Hopkins? The fantasy stud who was one of the highest-priced DFS receivers for most of 2015? He’s back, and got 17 targets last week and his most yards since Week 2. He’s priced right in the middle of WRs this week, and should be a popular play. Chances are you haven’t put Hopkins on your DFS roster in months, and Savage all year. They’re one of my favorite cheap stacks this week against a Bengals team with nothing to play for at all. Finally, Todd Gurley. On the PFW Fantasy Football podcast, I’ve made suggestions that Gurley is Trent Richardson 2.0, but even I can’t resist his matchup this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has an all-time terrible rush defense, already giving up the most rushing yards in a season in franchise history – with two games remaining. Gurley has been nothing short of disappointing this season, but with Jeff Fisher gone and at least something different to play for, why not try someone new like Gurley.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
DFS: Don’t be afraid to try something new
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
By
ARTHUR ARKUSH OVERVIEW
Here they go again? When the Packers were last 8-6, in 2010, all they did was win six consecutive games to raise the Lombardi Trophy. A few common denominators: a white hot, albeit dinged Aaron Rodgers for the stretch run, and a once-grounded run game suddenly balancing the offense behind a backup thrust into a starter’s role heading into the postseason. A balky calf kept Rodgers in the pocket, but not from bailing out the Packers’ collapsed fourth-quarter defense with another epic crunchtime bomb. Ty Montgomery’s tackle-breaking exhibition paved the way for Green Bay’s best ground attack in more than a calendar year. This defense isn’t formidable like that No. 2 scoring unit, but it’s healthier and creating takeaways. The Vikings are coming off a brutal letdown, the worst defeat of the Mike Zimmer era, sinking them for the first time this season into third place and in need of a minor miracle to return to the
postseason following a 5-0 start. Rather than spark the club, Adrian Peterson’s return from a Week 2 meniscus tear contributed to the Dumpster fire, a 34-6 defeat to the Colts with both teams in dire straits coming in. Peterson essentially lit the match, too, with a second quarter lost fumble squandering Minnesota’s best opportunity to make things competitive headed into intermission.
OVERVIEW
Here they go again? In fairness, the Lions didn’t trip over the myriad verbal bouquets they’ve recently received when they fell, 17-6, on the road to the Giants. There’s no shame in losing for the first time in six games, not to a dangerously ascending Giants club. There is, however, real concern the Lions could go from the No. 2 seed entering Week 15 to missing the playoffs altogether. Especially with the secondary hamstrung following Darius Slay’s injury Sunday, as Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson loom. Matthew Stafford is not playing like an MVP in his first start with the dislocated middle finger. Green Bay is now in the driver’s seat to steal away the Lions’ first NFC North crown ahead of a Week 17 trip to Detroit, following the Packers hosting the reeling Vikings as the Lions visit another NFC East hornet’s nest, where the conference’s best club is again buzzing. The Lions’ improbable eight fourth-quarter comebacks are reason enough
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Stefon Diggs had arguably the best game of his young career (9-182-1) in Minnesota’s 17-14 conquest of Green Bay in Week 2, when Peterson suffered his injury and Diggs toasted Packers CB Damarious Randall routinely. Diggs wasn’t benched like Randall a week ago, but he disappeared in the offense’s worst showing of the season. It goes without saying the Vikings must harass an immobile Rodgers – they sacked him five times in the first meeting – but they also need Diggs and Sam Bradford to again catalyze a lifeless offense against a prolific Packers club.
not to write them off. Their history, plus a deck that appears increasingly stacked against them, are legitimate causes for concern. So too is an offense that bogs down every time it reaches the red zone, where the Lions have just five touchdowns in their past 18 trips. Dallas ranks fifth inside its opponents 20 and fourth overall in scoring compared to the Lions, No. 23 and 20, respectively.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Starting with Slay, then Nevin Lawson following Slay’s injury, the Lions did an admirable job containing Odell Beckham Jr. Repeating that feat without Slay against Dez Bryant is a gargantuan task, specifically with Ezekiel Elliott preventing Detroit from assigning consistent safety help to Bryant’s side. Dallas’ No. 1 receiver has five touchdowns in four career games against the Lions. He was contained in the most recent meeting, also Detroit’s last postseason victory, but that was with a healthy Slay just growing into his star corner role.
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IF REX IS OUT IN BUFFALO, WHO’S IN?
As Adam Schefter first reported Sunday for ESPN, we have been hearing from multiple sources that Rex Ryan’s time is at an end in Buffalo. On the face of it, this seems Rex Ryan strange when you consider Ryan reportedly has three years remaining on his contract at $5.5 million a year and through one season and 14 games, he is exactly 15-15 – 8-8 last season and 7-7 today. Why is that awful enough to get fired? Normally it wouldn’t be, but Ryan is often his own worst enemy. This season will mark the Bills 17th straight without a trip to the playoffs, the longest drought in the NFL today. Only the Browns with 14 missed playoffs and the Rams with an even dozen have gone more than a decade without a visit to the postseason. This past summer, Ryan proclaimed his Bills playoff ready and announced anything less than the playoffs this year would be a failure. But that still isn’t enough on its own to get him canned. The Way We Hear It, Bills owners Terry and Kim Pegula – who just bought the team early in the 2014 season and then saw their head coach, Doug Marrone, exercise an out in his contract following the season, forcing them to hire a new coach (Ryan) just a few months after taking over the club – have simply had enough of Ryan’s act. Ryan is exceedingly brash, arrogant and has never met a microphone or television camera he doesn’t like. Ironically, that is his coaching style. Behind the scenes, he can be calm, polite, humble and quite pleasant, but it is reportedly his coaching style that has worn thin quickly with the Pegulas as they’ve assimilated to NFL ownership. It also has been reported in multiple outlets that Bills general manager Doug Whaley, who oversaw the hiring of Marrone and Ryan, is likely to stay and have a hand in hiring a third head coach, a rare opportunity for an NFL GM. Some have wondered why, since Whaley hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with the Bills’ personnel decisions. We hear the answer may be because the Pegulas already know who their next head coach is going to be, and that is what is giving them some comfort in making the move on Ryan so quickly. Their guy may be more than capable of upgrading Whaley’s end of the operation as well or, if necessary, helping in the process of replacing him down the road.
WHO’S THE BEST FIT IN LOS ANGELES WITH THE RAMS?
AP PHOTO
The Bills have had interest in former head coach Tom Coughlin since last summer
The Way We Hear It, the Pegulas have been in conversations for some time now with Tom Coughlin, and Coughlin is the front-runner to be the next head coach of the Bills following this season. Reports of the Bills owners’ interest in Coughlin date back to last summer, and our sources are telling us that conversations began again a few weeks ago and that the interest is mutual. Unlike some former head coaches of Coughlin’s stature who need to be persuaded, coerced and wined and dined to return to the sidelines, Coughlin can’t wait. We are told he will jump at the first top job that is offered, which may be why the Bills appear ready to move on from Ryan so quickly. While reports have surfaced of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ interest in Coughlin, they are really as simple as general manager David Caldwell saying “the right thing” at a press conference discussing their head-coaching search. Coughlin was good but not great – 68-60, four playoffs in eight seasons – as the first-ever coach of the 1995 expansion team. He was fired after consecutive 6-10 seasons. Relatively new owner Shad Khan – he bought the Jaguars five years ago – will be hiring his third coach in five seasons. After missing on veteran Mike Mularkey and Gus Bradley, we hear he is unlikely to want to take the franchise back 15 seasons for a do-over with Coughlin considering his fairly young roster and Coughlin’s age (71 in August 2017). As we reported here last week, we continue to hear that Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith is the most likely fit in Jacksonville. Nonetheless, according to our sources, the Pegulas are sold on Coughlin. We hear they could move quickly the week after New Year’s Day to
According to our sources, unlike Jacksonville and the Bills, the Rams’ head-coaching search is likely to be much more protracted and involve a number of top candidates. The Way We Hear It, that search will absolutely not involve Jim Harbaugh or Pete Carroll, in spite of what a number of wishful thinkers continue to write for various other outlets. We have not spoken directly to Harbaugh but we do know that his love affair with the University of Michigan is genuine. While it would not be at all surprising to see him take a run at another Super Bowl down the road, he is definitely not going anywhere before beating Ohio State, winning Big Ten Championships and taking a real run at a national title with his beloved Maize and Blue. Harbaugh has plenty of time left for the NFL, but it won’t be coming any time soon. Kyle Shanahan Carroll is perfectly content in Seattle, under contract through 2019 on a deal he just extended this past summer, and considering the Raiders got two first-round picks, two second-rounders and $8 million for Jon Gruden 15 years ago, what exactly do you think Carroll would cost the Rams, who don’t have a one or a three in 2017 thanks to the Jared Goff deal? What we are hearing right now is that the early leader in the clubhouse for the Rams job is Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Shallow as it may seem, Shanahan is young, good-looking and energetic, which will be job requirements in Los Angeles. More importantly, he has impeccable coaching bloodlines from his Super Bowl winning dad. At the age of 37, he already is one of the most experienced offensive coordinators in the league, having run the show in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and now Atlanta. He also has a reputation as the kind of quarterback whisperer that Goff badly needs. Shanahan happens to be represented by Marvin Demoff, whose son Kevin is in his fifth season as Executive V.P. Football Operations and COO of the Rams, so negotiations can be conducted at the dinner table over the holidays with no fear of tampering violations going public. We’re not accusing, we’re just saying.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
Tom Coughlin is the frontrunner to replace Rex Ryan in Buffalo
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
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Gift-giving to members of the 2016 Bears NATE KEVINATKINS FISHBAIN
Fishbain: Let’s get in the
Christmas spirit, Patrick, and give out some gifts to members of the 3-11 Bears. We can’t get anyone a playoff appearance, let alone a Super Bowl, but maybe we can get them some gifts for the future. Like GM Ryan Pace, for example. Could there be a better gift for Pace than a long-term quarterback? Maybe he walks out to his driveway on Christmas morning and sees Jimmy Garoppolo there with a giant bow like those car commercials? Finley: I’d ask Lake Forest College to invite John Fox to be their graduation speaker and hand him a scroll afterward. That way
us r o ci fo ! i l s e ck h � D a t Sn al He
sidered.
he can no longer claim he’s not a doctor when asked about injuries. Rather, he’d have to couch it – “My doctoral degree is in Letters, and it’s merely honorary.” Maybe this would be a good gift, Kev – a whole mess of ace bandages with a nice card that says we hope they won’t have to use them as much next season. Fishbain: A healthy roster would be quite the gift for Fox, and it would save him from having to tell us that everyone is day-to-day. If there truly is any rift between Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, we should set them up as each
PATRICK FINLEY FINLEY PATRICK
other’s Secret Santa. Or just get them a friendship bracelet. Is there a way to gift-wrap more takeaways for Fangio? Maybe get him a ball-hawking safety? Finley: How about a ball-hawking safety and another who can tackle? The Bears made Ty Montgomery look like Barry Sanders on Sunday. I understand the lack of turnovers – the healthy members of the Bears’ defensive backfield aren’t particularly skilled – but tackling is a basic, effort-driven task. There’s no excuse for those mistakes. Linebacker Jerrell Freeman’s return against
Washington will help in that regard. Speaking of which – should the Bears get their players a better drug-screening app, or a Whizzinator, perhaps? Fishbain: There’s a good gift for anyone in Bears management: someone who will monitor all supplements that players purchase to avoid any further suspensions. What would you get the McCaskey family, Patrick? They haven’t seen their team make the playoffs since 2010. How expensive are time machines? Asking for a friend who thinks they have some hires in the 201213 range that could be recon-
Finley: Bruce Arians has won exactly one more playoff game than the Bears have since he got the Cardinals job. He was 12-2 at this time last year, went 2-2 the rest of the way – including a 34-point loss in Carolina in the NFC title game – and has led the Cardinals to only two more wins than the Bears this year. Is he still the one that got away? Sure. But Bears fans aren’t drooling the way they were last Christmas. As for what to get the McCaskeys: A Brinks truck to take to Alshon Jeffery’s house? Fishbain: Or do Pace and Fox instruct the McCaskeys to get Jeffery a parting gift? Maybe one of those airplane pillows to use on his flights for a free-agent tour? Patrick, do you think the Bears’ head coach will get us beat writers anything for the holidays? Finley: Two words, Kev: Hot dogs.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
I
n a special holiday edition of ‘Take 2,’ Patrick Finley of the Chicago SunTimes and Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly give out gifts to members of the Bears family.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016
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