ARKUSH: Coaches need to
improve run game, special teams SINCE 1967
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193rd Time’s A Charm?
Pernell McPhee Aaron Rodgers hopes to return putting up from injury career lows
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1 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 2 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 4 DALLAS COWBOYS 5 ATLANTA FALCONS 6 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 7 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8 DENVER BRONCOS 9 GREEN BAY PACKERS 10 ARIZONA CARDINALS 11 HOUSTON TEXANS 12 OAKLAND RAIDERS 13 BUFFALO BILLS 14 WASHINGTON 15 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 CINCINNATI BENGALS 17 NEW YORK GIANTS 18 DETROIT LIONS 19 BALTIMORE RAVENS 20 LOS ANGELES RAMS 21 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 22 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 23 CAROLINA PANTHERS 24 TENNESSEE TITANS 25 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 26 NEW YORK JETS 27 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 28 MIAMI DOLPHINS 29 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 30 CHICAGO BEARS 31 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 32 CLEVELAND BROWNS
May not be pushed again until Cardinals in Week 11 AFC’s best getting better each week
Got a little help in crucial win over Falcons Still don’t see ‘D’ but can’t doubt them anymore If stripes call the P.I. on Richard Sherman . . . Need now to do it week-in, week-out How long will Big Ben be down?
Yes, you actually do need a quarterback in NFL Where oh where can their Rodgers be . . . ? Just what they needed Monday over Jets Osweiler rallies late – can he build on it? Not ready for the big boys yet
4 in a row is 4 in a row, but are they for real? Also winners of 4 in a row; may be for real? There’s tape on Wentz now, how will he answer? Who else has beat Pitt, Den, Dal, NE?
Power Rankings Welcome to our ProFootballWeekly.com NFL Week 7 Power Rankings
Please keep in mind as you read them they have nothing to do with who we think will be in the playoffs and Super Bowl, nor do they necessarily indicate who we think the best teams in the league are. These rankings are based on each team’s performance in the first six weeks of the season, players lost to injury and players expected to return soon. AP PHOTO
If they have to count on OBJ, may be in trouble Give Caldwell credit for two-week bounce-back Forget injuries, where’s the talent on offense? Have to ask: How bad must Jared Goff be? No idea who this team is?
No idea how defense can be so bad? No idea . . . at this point at all
Try-hard guys just need more talent
Huge win, 10 days rest, now we see what’s next More wrong here than just brutal schedule No business beating Bears, offense still a mess Steelers win pretty random, need another look What did they expect from this defense? Injuries sure, but are the coaches hurting, too?
Earl Thomas had a key interception in the Seahawks’ 26-24 win over the Falcons on Sunday. Seattle moves up to No. 3 in this week’s rankings.
OK, Kaepernick’s not the answer
Can someone give these guys a hug?
T
he old line that statistics lie has never been truer than it is in the NFL today. For example, if I told you that a team was seventh in total offense, fourth in passing, fifth in lowest percentage of interceptions and 12th in lowest percentage of sacks allowed, where might you expect that team to rank in scoring and what do you think its record might be? Now let’s say that same team is 11th in total defense, 10th against the pass, 11th in third down efficiency, eighth in yard differential versus its opponents and third in goal-to-go percentage. That’s probably a pretty good defense right? So where does this team rank in scoring and points allowed, and how close are they playing other teams? Actually, these guys are just 31st in points scored, 19th in points allowed, 28th in point differential per game and they are the 1-5 Chicago Bears. The only team worse than the Bears in all three of those categories is the 1-5 New York Jets, and the only other
clubs worse than the are .500 or better. Bears in both points The Bears’ biggest allowed and point difproblems right now, beyond not scoring ferential are the 2-3 enough points, are Bucs, 1-5 49ers and 0-6 being tied for 28th in Browns. third down efficiency, I guess those stats tied for 27th in percentdon’t lie. Why are the Bears age of field goals made, struggling so badly to 26th in time of possesscore points in spite of sion, 25th in red zone repeatedly piling up efficiency and 23rd yards and moving the running the football. ball up and down the It is interesting to HUB ARKUSH field? note that only three of harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com Usually, the first the top 10 teams in the @Hub_Arkush place you’d look is at league in red zone efturnovers, but while ficiency are not in the the Bears aren’t great taking care of top 10 rushing the football, and only the football, they’re not awful either. four of the top 10 in scoring aren’t in On offense, their seven turnovers the top 10 in rushing. rank them tied for 13th fewest in the On defense, six of the top 10 in fewleague and their six takeaways are est points allowed are also in the top tied for 16th. 10 in time of possession and two more, At minus-1, the Bears are tied for New England and Kansas City, are 19th in the NFL in turnover/take12th and 13th in TOP, respectively. away ratio, certainly not great, but There is one other area that jumped nine of the 11 teams behind them have out of a statistical analysis of the Bears better records than they do, and five that I had not really focused on and that
is that Connor Barth is not the only problem with the Bears special teams. They are OK returning kicks, 11th returning punts and 18th in kickoff returns, but the Bears are just 24th covering kickoffs and they’re actually deadlast in opponents’ punt return average. There are all kinds of ways to manipulate statistics and it can be dangerous to form too many conclusions from them, but they certainly do crystalize some problems with a team’s performance and can create a path to improvement. This was always going to be a rebuilding season for the Bears, and nobody expected 6-0, but nobody saw 1-5 coming either. Even with the injuries the Bears have suffered, it seems clear that with a better running game and improvement on special teams – pretty attainable goals one would assume with the healthy bodies that are currently available – the Bears can be better than they’ve been so far. The question is, what are the Bears coaches and players going to do about it?
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Bears stats show run game, special teams lagging
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
Bears rushing offense vs Packers run defense Before Ezekiel Elliott came to town, the Packers had a historic start to the season defending the run, allowing 171 rushing yards total in their first four games and a paltry 1.99 yards per carry. Elliott flipped that on a dime, though, with his monster game last week. It doesn’t mean Green Bay doesn’t have a formidable front, but Elliott was significantly better than the backs they faced in the first month of the season. What has worked is the pairing of Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez at inside linebacker, a big position question mark in the offseason. Ryan has four tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Mike
football. This is a strength vs. strength situation in the trenches, with Kyle Long and Josh Sitton (if his ankle is healthy) going against the Packers’ front seven that has stopped every runner, except Elliott. Howard has been good, but he’s not Elliott.
EDGE u PACKERS
Daniels, Letroy Guion, Mike Pennel and first-rounder Kenny Clark help form a stout D-line that faces a Bears rushing attack that stalled against the Jaguars. Jordan Howard managed only 2.3 yards per carry against a stacked box coming off his backto-back 100-yard games. Ka’Deem Carey had more success, but the Bears weren’t effective rushing the
Bears passing offense vs Packers pass defense The numbers aren’t great for Dom Capers’ pass defense, which is allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 101.7, having given up 10 touchdowns while picking off only three passes. The 16 sacks, though,
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7:30 p.m. Thursday, NBC
Two struggling offenses, but only one is puzzling. Rodgers had one of worst games ever in Bears’ Thursday night upset at Lambeau last year.
GIANTS AT RAMS
(IN LONDON) 8:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL NETWORK
Odell Beckham Jr. finally making noise again for play, not petulance. Rams back at .500, right in Jeff Fisher’s wheelhouse.
BROWNS AT BENGALS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Credit where credit is due: Cody Kessler has impressed for winless Browns. Vontaze Burfict is out of control, Bengals close to out of playoffs.
WASHINGTON AT LIONS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Washington has won four straight but has a point differential of zero; even with Stafford hot again, can’t take Lions seriously after what they let Keenum do.
RAIDERS AT JAGUARS AP PHOTOS
Willie Young
are tied for sixth in the league, sparked by Nick Perry’s 4.5 and Clay Matthews’ three. The Bears have allowed four sacks on Brian Hoyer’s 189 dropbacks, an astounding rate, but the Packers’ edge rushers will test Charles Leno and Bobby Massie. Capers will mix things up and he has a deep secondary, when healthy, including Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. However, with Rollins (groin) inactive in Week 6 and Randall leaving before intermission with a groin injury, the cornerback depth was exposed. Alshon Jeffery will have his chances, but can Hoyer get him the ball, especially in the red zone? The passing game has been fine between the 20s, but that’s it. If we’re to judge this matchup by how efficient the Bears can be, they get an advantage against a Green Bay group that hasn’t been stout vs. the pass and has injury issues in the secondary.
EDGE u BEARS
Packers rushing offense vs Bears run defense Overall it’s been a better season for a lighter Eddie Lacy, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, but he rushed only 3.8 yards a touch vs. the Cowboys on Sunday. Without James Starks, the Packers don’t offer much of a 1-2 punch in the backfield. They may not have Josh Sitton anymore, but T.J. Lang leads a good O-line to run behind. The Bears had a stellar run defense performance last week against the Jaguars, holding Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon to 53 combined rushing yards on 17 attempts. Akiem Hicks and Mitch Unrein had good days on the D-line, helping set up plays for Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. This is a close matchup that may depend on how willing the Bears are to sell out to stop the run and put a struggling Aaron Rodgers in third-and-long. The Bears have the personnel up front to contain Lacy, and would be even better off if Eddie Goldman returned, but Green Bay’s O-line is better than Jacksonville’s. Slight advantage to the Pack.
EDGE u PACKERS
AP PHOTOS
Aaron Rodgers
Packers passing offense vs Bears pass defense To quote Willie Young, “Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers.” The Bears know what Rodgers is capable of, even if the formerly all-world quarterback is completing only 60.2 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 88.4 – this is someone who has a 103.5 career passer rating. Whether it’s route concepts that aren’t helping his receivers get open or something within Rodgers’ own technique that is causing him to be inaccurate, this passing offense has not been in rhythm. He does have Jordy Nelson back, a big-play threat, along with Randall Cobb, who will really challenge the middle of the Bears’ defense. Ty Montgomery’s role could continue to expand if Davante Adams (concussion) can’t go, and that group gets a young Bears secondary that could be without last year’s Lambeau hero, Tracy Porter. Jacoby Glenn had penalty issues last week, Cre’Von LeBlanc is an undrafted rookie in the slot, Bryce Callahan can’t stay on the field and the Bears’ safeties aren’t making plays on the football. Add all that to a pass rush that remains inconsistent – the Bears are averaging four QB hits a game. Vic Fangio gives the Bears a boost, but Rodgers will get his.
EDGE u PACKERS
Sunday’s overall edge Thursday night games are strange. Short weeks keep some players out of the lineup who would have been able to play on a Sunday. Games are ugly, and that’s how the Bears could pull off an upset, like they did last Thanksgiving. However, the Packers have the seventh-best defense in the league both on third down and in the red zone, and it’s those key areas that have been problems for the Bears of late. It may not be the same Packers offense, but it’s hard to foresee Rodgers and this group losing back-to-back games at home.
EDGE u PACKERS
12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Oakland on the road again, still not playing ‘D.’ Jaguars don’t care about style points; they’ve won two in a row.
SAINTS AT CHIEFS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
More often than not, New Orleans in good shape if Brees has it last; Spencer Ware and Dee Ford are unlikely Chiefs stars.
BILLS AT DOLPHINS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Can Rex’s troops, winners of four straight, avoid looking ahead to Pats next week? The cure for Ryan Tannehill is more Ajayi.
RAVENS AT JETS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Reeling Ravens need to stop skid before the bye; Jets’ death march continues, on short rest, vs. another desperate club.
VIKINGS AT EAGLES 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz face off for the first time on opposite sidelines.
COLTS AT TITANS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Colts’ Sunday night collapse in Houston as bad as it gets? Mike Mularkey’s Titans are a game out of first place.
CHARGERS AT FALCONS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Can rookies Bosa and Henry continue to energize Bolts? Atlanta appeared for real in Seattle defeat, but must avoid letdown.
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Tampa needed the bye to figure out what it does well; Colin Kaepernick earned another start after being thrown into fire in Buffalo.
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
The NFL deserves Tom Brady vs. Landry Jones; Steelers hope Big Ben back ticking after Week 8 bye.
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS 7:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC
Seattle emerges from bye to remind everyone they’re still a force in NFC; Cardinals get another primetime stage to show early-season missteps just that.
TEXANS AT BRONCOS 7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Did Brock Osweiler start to figure it out in fourth quarter/OT last week? Gary Kubiak’s back, but are the champion Broncos?
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
BEARS AT PACKERS
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
(-8) Hub
Kevin
Arthur
Bob
Adam
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Daily Herald
Chicago Sun-Times
ARKUSH
FISHBAIN
ARKUSH
LEGERE
JAHNS
Bears 13 Packers 30
Bears 16 Packers 29
Bears 17 Packers 28
Bears 13 Packers 27
Bears 13 Packers 24
The Packers look shaky right now, but I can’t find a single sign or matchup that says the Bears can take advantage.
Likely won’t be a pretty one for either team. Most fans switch to Cubs by halftime, if they’re not already there.
Hoyer’s unwillingness to attack Pack’s banged-up CB stable bigger problem than what ails Rodgers, GB offense.
Bears sprung upset last year at Lambeau, but lightning won’t strike twice.
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been Aaron Rodgers this season, but the Bears are too banged up to beat a beatable Packers team.
SEASON RECORD: 4-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-3
SEASON RECORD: 4-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-5
SEASON RECORD: 4-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-2-1
SEASON RECORD: 3-3 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-3
SEASON RECORD: 2-4 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-5-1
Jon
Kristin
Eric
Dan
Kyle
The Herald-News
Kendall County Record
Daily Chronicle
Northwest Herald
Kankakee Daily Journal
STYF
SHARP
OLSON
Bears 17 Packers 21
Bears 16 Packers 25
Bears 7 Packers 34
The Bears keep staying in games and losing. The Packers don’t seem to have everything together. This one will be close.
Green Bay is struggling, but didn’t lose to Jaguars. Without better red-zone offense, the Bears won’t make this one close.
Look what I’ve got to show after picking the Bears so much. This week, I’d take the Packers even if I had to lay 20.
SEASON RECORD: 6-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 6-0
SEASON RECORD: 2-4 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-4
SEASON RECORD: 2-4 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-5
McCALEB Bears 16 Packers 27 The Packers have their own problems, but not as many as the Bears do. SEASON RECORD: 4-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 4-2
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Are some Bears fans rooting for Packers Thursday night?
I
t was a dance party, and John Fox busted a move. The Bears’ locker room at Lambeau Field had come alive following their 17-14 win against the Green Bay Packers last season. They had just ruined Brett Favre Night on Thanksgiving on national television. Receiver Josh Bellamy took care of the music, blasting Young Jeezy’s “Win.” Players danced, and Fox jumped in. Some players said then that they saw Fox “dabbing,” though there was no visual proof of him taking part in the craze popularized in the NFL by Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. But the videos that Bears players shared on social media definitely captured “Foxy” jumping about and sharing in their chants. It was a moment that deeply resonated with the players, who took personal offense to being picked for Favre’s homecoming. It undoubtedly went down as the highlight of Fox’s first season. Even though the Bears lost their next three games, beating the Packers on their home field said that good
night wouldn’t fully days could be coming satisfy a restless fanunder Fox. base. There are too It was more than many openly rooting just a feel-good moment. It offered hope for the highest draft a season after Marc pick that the Bears Trestman’s run as can get at this point. coach came to a disasToo many fans have trous, back-stabbing flipped the page to end. 2017. It’s too bad, too. “I remember it was The Packers have Thanksgiving; it was looked pretty ordithe holiday season,” ADAM JAHNS nary at times this seaFox said this week. ajahns@ww.com son. Even all-world “I remember it being @ajahns quarterback Aaron a pretty miserable Rodgers has looked night. It rained all human, posting a pedestrian 88.4 night. But any time you walk out of passer rating through five games. there with a win, especially being “Both teams are different,” Packon the road against a division team, ers coach Mike McCarthy said. “I it makes it worth all the effort.” think it’s consistent to say that But the same won’t apply this season. Not when the Bears are 1-5 and each and every year. It’s never the have a long list of injured players. same.” Sure, there might be some hopeful feelings that come about following a win. Beating the Packers is Everyone is piling on the Bears rare in these parts. The Bears, as these days, even the league’s own a team, certainly need all the good website. vibes they can get. In power rankings posted TuesBut beating the Packers this year day, NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison ratat Lambeau Field on Thursday ed the Bears at No. 31, but the insult
•••
came in the description. Harrison previewed the Cubs’ Game 3 matchup against the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Game 3 starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Rich Hill were mentioned. All the Bears got was this, “Oh, the Bears got beat Sunday by a wide receiver who hadn’t scored a touchdown since 2012.”
•••
Third-year defensive lineman Will Sutton might have finally won over defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. At least, it sounds like it. It helps Sutton that Fangio said they haven’t been in their base 3-4 defense much lately. Sutton, the Bears’ third-round pick in 2014, always has been considered a prototypical three-technique tackle in a 4-3 front. “Will’s done a nice job,” Fangio said. “Will’s got some good football instincts as far as [defensive] line goes. He’s got some quickness. He’s athletic in there. He’s done a nice job upholding his end of the bargain.”
Willie Young continues to be bright spot for Bears ‘D’
I
magine what the Bears’ pass rush would look like this year without Willie Young. Of the Bears’ 13 sacks through six games, Young has 6, including 5 in the past two games. The late-blooming 31-year-old was originally the Lions’ 2010 seventh-round draft pick (213th overall) out of North Carolina State. When he isn’t terrorizing quarterbacks, Young is an enthusiastic fisherman, and he’s had plenty of opportunities lately to demonstrate his sack celebrations, which mimic various casting techniques. After a personal-best three sacks in Week 5, Young had two more Sunday in front of the home fans and family at Soldier Field, which gave him a chance to go “fishing.” “The first one, I was fly fishing,” he said. “I was going for distance on the second one. It was a very strong one, a very strong cast. I had the family up in the stands, so I sent the hook right at them.” Young forced a Blake Bortles fumble on his second sack, and team-
mate Akiem Hicks replays run away from covered for the Bears him. at the Jaguars’ 28-yard He began slowly line, but they settled last season but had for a 32-yard field goal. 5½ of his 6½ sacks Young has been in the final seven making plays for three games, overcoming years as a Bear, first as not only the Achilles a defensive end in a 4-3 injury, but a position and, since last year, as shift from defensive a 3-4 outside linebackend in a 4-3 to outside er. linebacker in Vic Fangio’s 3-4 scheme. The Bears’ decision BOB LeGERE That prompted the to gamble on Young in rlegere@dailyherald.com Bears to give him a free agency after the @BobLeGere two-year extension at 2013 season has paid the start of training huge dividends. Buying low and wagering on potential, camp worth $11 million, including Young was signed to a three-year $9 $9 million guaranteed, and it included a reworking of his 2016 compenmillion deal. In four years with the sation. Lions, the 6-foot-4, 258-pound Young “We did this because of everyhad totaled just six sacks. thing he brings to the table,” general In his first season with the Bears, manager Ryan Pace said of Young. he led the team with 10½ sacks despite missing the season finale with “He’s a productive player, he’s a a ruptured Achilles tendon. He was good player and, most importantly, also second among Bears linemen he’s a good teammate.” with 55 tackles, frequently using his That much was obvious when speed and quickness to chase down Young was asked about his three
sacks in Week 5. “My performance came down to a great push up the middle and just guys getting aggressive,” he said. “Guys being dominant and winning their one-on-ones. From the start of that game, controlling the run game – that’s where it started. “None of my production was possible without the guys next to me. I don’t say that to be a company guy. I say that because those guys were playing their asses off.” The Bears’ decision in late July to reward Young seemed like a good idea back then. And, despite the team’s horrible start, it seems like a better idea now. “It feels good to reward somebody that’s worked as hard as he’s worked and overcome the injury last year, and is the leader that he is,” Pace said in the summer. “He’s out there mentoring our younger players. It’s good for our locker room; it’s good for our team.” It was the first contract extension of Pace’s regime, and he can only hope they all pay off as well.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |
Roethlisberger injury has many fantasy repercussions By J.C.
TALON
A
Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com
fter rushing for 0, 14, 28, 33, and 42 yards in the first five games of 2016, respectively, Jay Ajayi busted out against the Steelers with 204 yards and two scores on 25 carries. Yeah, we all saw that coming. Ajayi is owned in 56 percent of CBS leagues and 43 percent of ESPN leagues. Those numbers will jump dramatically this week. Whether he can become an elite fantasy back is anybody’s guess, but after his Week 6 performance, you can bet he’ll get another opportunity. The other big fantasy news from last weekend was the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. The loss of Big Ben obviously impacts his owners, but it also will have repercussions for owners of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh is hoping to have their QB back after next week’s bye, but he’ll be out this week against New England. Backup Landry Jones is one of the worst No. 2 signal-callers in the league. He started two games last year, but played meaningful time in only one of those games. In Week 7 at Kansas City, he was 16-of29 for 209 with one touchdown and two interceptions. Pittsburgh lost 23-13. On the other hand, Bell had 121 yards rushing and Brown had 124 yards receiving in the game. Although expectations are diminished, both players remain must-starts. On to Week 7 …
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT Cincinnati Bengals
OPPONENT: VS CLEVELAND BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON Anything can happen in the NFL, but there is little doubt that the Browns have the least talented roster in the league. Cleveland’s 29th-ranked defense is yielding 403 yards and 29.3 points per game. Their equal-opportunity incompetence has them ranked 26th against both the run and the pass. The over/under in this game is hovering around 46 with Cincy favored by 9.5. That would suggest the Bengals should score about 27 points. A.J. Green is a good bet for a big day and Andy Dalton is an option for owners of Roethlisberger or Cam Newton. The big question mark is the running game. In the past two games, Giovani Bernard has 34 touches and 190 yards while Jeremy Hill has only 18 touches for 53 yards. Those two games were against New England and Dallas – teams far more talented than Cleveland. Hill has also been fighting through some injuries. The uncertainty downgrades both players. Brandon LaFell has three touchdowns in the past two weeks, though he was held to two catches for 13 yards in Foxborough. MUST START: Green SOLID PLAY: Dalton, Mike Nugent, Bengals D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Bernard, Hill, C.J. Uzomah LAST RESORT: LaFell
Kansas City Chiefs
OPPONENT: VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, NOON If the Chiefs are going to win this game – and they are favored – they will most likely have to score more points than usual. Kansas City’s defense (14th) is OK, but not good enough to shut down Drew Brees & Co. Luckily for K.C., the Saints counter their second-ranked offense (in yards and points) with the league’s second-worst defense. Last week in Oakland, the Chiefs continued to feature Spencer Ware in the
running game. Jamaal Charles had nine carries for 33 yards, but Ware had 24 carries and piled up 131 yards and a TD. Both backs had two receptions. Look for Charles’ workload to increase a bit – especially as a receiver – but Ware is the better fantasy play at present. MUST START: Ware, Travis Kelce SOLID PLAY: Charles, Jeremy Maclin, Cairo Santos WORTH A LOOK: Alex Smith LAST RESORT: Charcandrick West STAY AWAY: Chiefs D/ST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OPPONENT: AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 The 49ers are giving up nearly 31 points per game – only the Saints have given up more. Roberto Aguayo seems to have worked out his early season issues and is a reasonable option at PK this week. Doug Martin (hamstring) could return, but it is far from a lock. If Martin misses another week, Jacquizz Rodgers is a decent streaming option. He had 30 carries for 101 yards in Week 5 against the Panthers. He also caught five passes for 28 yards. It is also noteworthy that Rodgers averages 4.0 yards on his 43 carries this season compared to 3.4 yards on 25 carries for Martin. MUST START: Mike Evans SOLID PLAY: Cameron Brate, Aguayo WORTH A LOOK: Martin*, Rodgers (if no Martin), Bucs D/ST LAST RESORT: Adam Humphries, Vincent Jackson
New England Patriots
OPPONENT: AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS, SUNDAY, 3:25 News flash … Start your Patriots! Apologies for the obviousness of this call, but Tom Brady & Co. are an especially good play this week against the Steelers and their 29th-ranked passing defense. There is a chance that, sans Roethlisberger, this game gets ugly. In that scenario, the emphasis could switch from Brady and the passing attack to LeGarrette Blount and a ground-and-pound show. MUST START: Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Stephen Gostkowski SOLID PLAY: Blount, Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett WORTH A LOOK: James White LAST RESORT: Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola
ALSO CONSIDER
Jacksonville Jaguars OPPONENT: VS LOS ANGELES RAIDERS, SUNDAY, NOON The Raiders are last in the NFL in yards allowed, giving up 25 yards more per game than the 31stranked Saints. The Jags’ 29th-ranked offense is struggling, but they have an opportunity to post decent numbers in this game.
Atlanta Falcons
OPPONENT: VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 This contest features the highest over/under of the week (51). San Diego has been extremely competitive in every game and is coming off a 21-13 upset over Denver. Expect a lot of points and yards from both teams.
MATCHUPS TO AVOID Chicago Bears
OPPONENT: AT GREEN BAY PACKERS, THURSDAY, 7:25 We don’t offer betting advice, but the over/under (46.5) in this game seems a bit aggressive. If it gets
there, at least 30 of those points will probably have to come from Green Bay. Brian Hoyer, as scouts like to say, is just good enough to get you beat. He dinks and dunks when defenses have to cover the entire field, but once the Bears get in the red zone and coverage tightens, Hoyer has no answers. The journeyman has thrown for over 300 yards in all four of his starts, but the Bears have scored 17 points in three of those games and 23 in the other while losing three of the four. The Packers have problems of their own, but should have little problem putting away an undermanned Bears squad. MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Alshon Jeffery WORTH A LOOK: Jordan Howard, Cameron Meredith, Zach Miller LAST RESORT: Brian Hoyer, Ka’Deem Carey, Eddie Royal, Bears D/ST STAY AWAY: Connor Barth
Philadelphia Eagles
OPPONENT: VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS, SUNDAY, NOON The over/under in this game (40) is the lowest of the week. Minnesota’s defense is second in yards allowed and first in points – yielding just 12.8 points per game. The Eagles have lost two straight and Carson Wentz has regressed during those games. Last week in Washington, he was 11-for-22 for 179 yards and no TDs. MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Eagles D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Ryan Mathews, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz LAST RESORT: Darren Sproles, Caleb Sturgis STAY AWAY: Wentz, Nelson Agholor
Houston Texans
OPPONENT: AT DENVER BRONCOS, MONDAY, 7:30 This looks like another low-scoring game. Brock Osweiler was able to rally his team last week against Indy. He won’t find the Broncos’ fourth-ranked defense nearly as accommodating. Houston’s best shot is on the ground: Denver is only 22nd against the run and is giving up 4.0 yards per carry. MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Lamar Miller WORTH A LOOK: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans D/ST LAST RESORT: Will Fuller*, C.J. Fiedorowicz STAY AWAY: Nick Novak
ALSO BEWARE Los Angeles Rams
OPPONENT: VS N.Y. GIANTS (LONDON), SUNDAY, 8:30 A.M. In case you needed a reason not to plug Rams into your fantasy lineup, the 10-plus hour flight from L.A. to London is a disadvantage. Todd Gurley is the only start here.
Seattle Seahawks
OPPONENT: AT ARIZONA CARDINALS, SUNDAY, 7:30 Considering the Cards have the fifth-ranked defense and Seattle is No. 1, this is not a great fantasy matchup for either team. Last season’s results were a mixed bag: Arizona won a 39-32 shootout in Seattle in November, but the Seahawks returned the favor in January with a 36-6 drubbing. The over/under in this game is hovering between 43 and 44.
* — Check injury status
By JOHN
I
SAHLY
jsahly@shawmedia.com
t’s fun to put Drew Brees – when he’s at home – on your Daily Fantasy Sports roster. It’s fun to click his name, then sit back, and watch him throw for 300 yards and at least two touchdowns in the Superdome, and know that position on your roster is secure. As a football fan, it’s just fun to watch Drew Brees. Put him on your DFS roster, and it makes it even more fun. At the same time, if you don’t roster him, it can be heartburn-inducing to watch his stats roll up like they did on Sunday: 465 yards, 4 touchdowns, good for 36.6 points on DraftKings. In their big Millionaire Maker tournament this past weekend, he was on six of the top 10 lineups. “Big deal, Sahly,” I hear you saying. “Rostering Drew Brees is fun. Drew Brees is good. Big newsbreaker, there. Where’s the but? There’s always a but in this column setup.” OK, you got me. But.... You don’t have to roster him. You can. And like I said, you’re safe. Brees at home is always, always, always in play in cash games. But. (There it is again). He’s expensive. He was the second-most expensive quarterback this past week, and you can find savings without giving
Drew Brees
AP PHOTO
up much in the way of points or safety and find yourself in position to roster better skill position players. We want efficient quarterbacks, not necessarily high-volume QBs. And this doesn’t just apply to Brees. Guys like
Cam Newton and Tom Brady are usually at the top of the salary chart, and you don’t have to roster them, either. I’d rather take the salary savings and find solid quarterbacks in good matchups. One example from last week: Matthew Stafford at home against a Rams team missing its best cornerback. Stafford has a higher fantasy output at home, and has been a top-10 fantasy QB since Jim Bob Cooter took over the Lions’ offense. Stafford, for a savings of $1,700 this past week, got you 28.2 points, which was four times his salary, which is more than enough to find big success in DFS. Oh, and he was on the winning Millionaire Maker lineup this week at just 4.7 percent ownership. Brees was on 10.5 percent of rosters. Paying down at quarterback is a way to differentiate yourself in tournaments. Think of your season-long league. You either reached up to get Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton or Drew Brees in the first four rounds, or you waited until the ninth or 10th to take a guy like Matt Ryan. The difference between Ryan and those topflight QBs isn’t all that much, but waiting to take Ryan allowed you to get a better skill-position player like a Lamar Miller or a T.Y. Hilton. The same applies in DFS. What do you want to pay for? A high-priced QB is a luxury, not a necessity.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
DFS: Stop paying up for quarterbacks
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
By
ARTHUR ARKUSH OVERVIEW
The Lions are back to .500 for the first time since Week Two after surviving the juggernaut known as Case Keenum’s Rams, 31-28. Detroit’s embarrassing defense made Keenum the NFL’s second-most productive quarterback in Week 6. Fortunately for the Lions, No. 1 on that list was none other than Matthew Stafford, who tossed four more touchdowns to increase his season total to 14 against just four picks. But the return of Pro Bowl DE Ezekiel Ansah did little to rectify the league’s most generous pass ‘D,’ yielding a 119.3 passer rating – worst in the NFL and more than eight points higher than in the Lions’ 0-16 season in 2008. Detroit is now ceding a completion percentage of 73.7 ahead of 2015 completion percentage leader Kirk Cousins’ visit. Cousins hasn’t been nearly as precise this season, however, seemingly burdened by $20 million weight of expectations accompanying the franchise tag. Yet, propelled by a
strong ‘D’ – Washington hasn’t permitted an offensive touchdown in seven-plus quarters – Washington has stacked four consecutive wins to remain a game behind the Cowboys in the no-longer “NFC Least.�
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Josh Norman versus Marvin Jones pairs two of free agency’s biggest bread-winners that have actually matched, if not exceeded, expectations. Jordan Reed, if he makes it back from another concussion, and/ or Vernon Davis is the latest tight end threat to a Lions defense that has permitted seven touchdowns to the position. Yet, it’s Ansah versus Washington LT Trent Williams that might be the best, and most impactful, matchup Sunday. Cousins has been sacked just one time over the past two games, the same number of times Detroit dropped Keenum. Detroit doesn’t appear to have coverage reinforcements on the way so it must get its best havoc wreaker stirring it up front.
OVERVIEW
All eyes are on tight ends coach Pat Shurmur as he returns to the city where he cut his NFL coaching teeth. Wait, there’s another reunion? Oh yeah, the NFL’s No. 2-rated passer and leader of its only undefeated team, Sam Bradford, revisits his old pals, Howie Roseman, Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz. It’s amazing to think it’s only been seven weeks, and the Vikings haven’t lost a game over that span since acquiring Bradford. He’s fit in Norv Turner’s offense like a glove on Teddy Bridgewater’s throwing hand. Relatively fresh and healthy coming off the bye, the Vikings could welcome back Stefon Diggs (groin), who missed their Week 5 trouncing of the Texans; RG Brandon Fusco, who exited early versus Houston with a concussion; and Sharrif Floyd, the former first-rounder whose chronic knee issue has sidelined him since Week 1. In Floyd’s absence, all replacement Tom Johnson has done is lead the Vikings in QB hits (13) while
serving as one of several game wreckers for the NFL’s No. 1 scoring ‘D.’ After surrendering an average of just nine points during their first three games, the Eagles have let up 50 combined in back-to-back losses to Detroit and Washington. Wentz was battered (five sacks) while failing to throw a touchdown for the first time, though the Eagles, like Minnesota, remain thrilled with the early returns from the Bradford deal.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
One of the league’s best pass rushers no one has heard of duels against one of its names no one can pronounce. Vikings DE Danielle Hunter, tied for the team lead with four sacks, goes up against rookie RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who was welcomed to the NFL time and again by Washington in his first start in place of suspended Lane Johnson. Vaitai also must contend with Brian Robison and Mike Zimmer’s fantastic deceptive and dynamic pressure packages.
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Will owners block Raiders move to Vegas?
T
o hear Mark Davis tell it, Las Vegas residents should already be planning their housewarming party for the Oakland, soon-to-be Las Vegas, Raiders. The Way We Hear It, not so fast my friends. When Nevada’s Republican governor Brian Sandoval signed a bill last Monday approving a $750 million tax plan to build a new multi-use stadium in Las Vegas for the Raiders to play in, Davis responded as if the fix was in, groundbreaking is imminent and the Raiders are on the move. We assume the Raiders’ fledgling owner knows better than that. Davis’ first order of business to eventually move his team anywhere was to go to Houston this past Tuesday and Wednesday and give his fellow owners an update on the stadium situations in Oakland and Las Vegas. An update, that’s it. He is not in a position to request permission to move until he formally files a request, which will presumably happen in January. Davis will then need the approval of at least 23 of his fellow owners to make the move – we assume he will vote yes to gain the 24 votes necessary – and it is assumed that vote wouldn’t even be held until the winter meetings in March. In the meantime, we hear that Davis finding 23 votes to approve a move to Vegas is nowhere near a sure thing, and that is not even the only bridge he has left to cross. On Nov. 8, the citizens of San Diego will cast ballots on Proposition C, which would generate the tax dollars necessary to build a new stadium for the Chargers. If the referendum were defeated, the Chargers would then almost certainly be forced to move to Los Angeles to share the future Kroenke palace with the Rams. If the Chargers get their new home in San Diego though, the Raiders have already been approved for a move to Los Angeles, one that would be much less expensive for them and potentially more lucrative. According to multiple sources, Davis has given up interest in L.A. and is much more focused on getting to Vegas, but few can figure out why. The Raiders currently play in the country’s sixth biggest market combining Oakland and San Francisco in the Bay Area. Los Angeles is the nation’s second-biggest market while Vegas is 40th, ranking ahead of only Jacksonville (47), New Orleans (50), Buffalo (53) and Green Bay (68) among NFL cities. Why would a savvy businessman want to pass on the second- and sixth-biggest markets for the 40th? Is Davis a savvy businessman? We’re hearing these are questions that will play a huge part in the Raiders owner’s ability to get the 23 votes he needs. Here are a few more of the hurdles we’re hearing Davis still needs to clear. Davis already has committed $500 million to the cost of the new Las Vegas stadium, with $200 million of that to come in the form of a loan from the
AP PHOTO
Mark Davis does not necessarily have the votes from other owners to move the Raiders to Las Vegas. NFL. The other $300 million is on him. Then there are the relocation fees. Kroenke paid the league approximately $515 million just for the right to move from St. Louis to Los Angeles. While Las Vegas isn’t nearly as desirable a destination, we’re hard-pressed to see his fellow owners giving Davis a discount. That’s a little over $800 million Davis has to come up with, and league rules prohibit him from borrowing against his ownership stake in the team. Our sources tell us Davis doesn’t have that kind of wealth. Next up, a number of his fellow owners are sensitive to the imaging problems the league is already facing for allowing the Rams to leave St. Louis in spite of the city’s best efforts to keep its team, and that becomes even more problematic if the Chargers head north for L.A. Some owners would much rather see Davis focus on finding a way to build a new home in Oakland rather than deserting a third fan base in 12 months. We also have a number of sources telling us that a lot more than a few NFL owners simply have their doubts as to how good a businessman Davis is and how far they should trust him. Unlike the Maras, Rooneys, Spanos’ and other offspring of the owners of heritage franchises, Davis grew up away from the family business rather than learning it, and as near as anyone can tell, not really doing much of anything else either. It wasn’t until his mid-40s that Davis began to learn the business and work closely with his late father, Hall of Fame owner, general manager and coach Al Davis. Some sources close to the situation report he was often tolerated as much as mentored. We’re hearing some owners are concerned that Davis is in over his head with Vegas and Nevada politicians, and billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who will contribute approximately $650 million to the stadium project and retain sub-
stantial operating control. A key figure to watch here is Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, not because he was reported to be the power broker who manipulated the Rams’ move to L.A., but because Jones maintained a very close relationship with the elder Davis over the last decade of his life and has always coveted the success and respect Al Davis earned as a “football guy” rather than a businessman. No owner has a better feel than Jones as to who the younger Davis really is, and it is an unknown as to whether Jones will support him as an ode to his late father or resist him due to concerns about his abilities. Finally, there is the 10-ton gorilla in the room. The NFL has invested tens of millions of dollars, decades of lobbying and political maneuvering and called in practically every political favor it has to battle the evils of gambling and more specifically legalized sports betting. To now reward the only state in the country where sports betting – the biggest chunk of which is betting on NFL games – with its own NFL team would be a stunning departure from the NFL’s core principles. It would also make it seemingly impossible for the NFL to continue to battle the expansion of legalized sports betting across the country and, the Way We Hear It, that is not a battle a number of the current owners are prepared to abandon. There are some owners – quite possibly including Jones – who are prepared to move on from their crusades against gambling, but there is also still a significant group of hardliners who have no intentions of abandoning that cause. It only takes nine owners to thwart a move of the Raiders, or for that matter any NFL team, and it is not only possible but likely that at least at the moment, there are more than that ready to say no to Vegas.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
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Where is there optimism for the Bears heading into Lambeau? NATE KEVINATKINS FISHBAIN Bears will wear all navy as part of the NFL’s “Color Rush” scam. Maybe the Packers won’t recognize them, or scout the Texans instead. Or Cal. Or Syracuse. That silliness aside, here’s the most legit reason: Aaron Rodgers was last among qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage before posting a whopping 73.8 percent mark in a loss to the Cowboys. We all know completion percentage can be an overrated stat – hi, Brian Hoyer! – but Rodgers just hasn’t been sharp this season. ¿Por que? (That means: Why?) Fishbain: Is it bad that I like how “boring” the Bears’ jerseys will be Thursday, es-
PATRICK FINLEY FINLEY PATRICK
pecially compared to some of the ugly ones we’ve seen this season? They are certainly getting the Packers at a time of tumult for Rodgers, McCarthy and Co. Receivers aren’t getting open, folks are criticizing the play-calling and Rodgers isn’t making the magical throws we’ve been accustomed to seeing. A short week may not be enough time for Rodgers and the offense to suddenly figure it out, and Vic Fangio did a number on Rodgers last year. Hey, there’s another positive! Can the defense keep getting better? Finley: Here are two reasons the defense can improve: Leonard Floyd and Pernell McPhee. If either, or both,
plays Thursday, the Bears have two pass-rush weapons. Even if they’re used sparingly, they’re more electric than the Sam Acho-Christian Jones duo that accompanied Willie Young on Sunday. Young’s been fantastic this season; think how good he’d be if the opposite pass rusher was halfway decent. If we know anything about Thursday night games, Kev, it’s that they’re screwy. Two underdogs have not only covered in five games thus far, but they’ve won them outright. Maybe the Bears won’t need much help uglying up the game. Fishbain: The pass rush seems to have the highest
ceiling because of Floyd and McPhee, and it also is one area of the defense that needs more consistency. The Packers have a good O-line and Rodgers is mobile and gets rid of the ball quickly. Thursday night games are wonky, as you said, and no one should know that better than the Bears, who shocked the Pack last Thanksgiving night. So, Patrick, man of optimism, you’re saying there’s a chance? Finley: Sure – albeit not a good one. History says it’ll be interesting, at least. Throw out the dreadful 2014 season – in which the Bears lost 3817 and 55-14 to their rivals – and the last five games have been settled by eight points or less. If that happens again, the Bears cover the spread. Will they win? They’re 3-12 in their past 15 games against their rivals. The best part about Thursday is the old saw, Kev: when rivals play, you can throw out their records. In fact, that’s the only way the Bears can get the stink of 1-5 off them.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
I
n this week’s edition of ‘Take 2,’ Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly and Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times look for reasons for optimism within the 1-5 Bears. Fishbain: We may have had this discussion last season, Patrick, but what do Bears fans have to be hopeful about after such a bad loss to a lowly Jaguars team? This team is 1-5 and destined to be 1-7 at the bye. The quarterback of the future isn’t on the team. Chicago’s past three firstround picks are injured. You and I can always be counted on to look at the bright side, Patrick, so I’ll start with the O-line. It started poorly vs. Jacksonville but got better as the game went along and protected Brian Hoyer well. It’s the best unit on the team right now. What’s your ray of sunshine? Finley: I’ve got three: The Packers stink right now, the Bears have actually won two of their past three games at Lambeau Field, and the
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2016
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