Bears vs Jaguars SINCE 1967
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 13, 2016
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BEARS LOOKING FOR THEIR SECOND WIN What does WR Cameron Meredith’s performance in Indy mean to the team? GO TO
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
1 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 2 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3 GREEN BAY PACKERS 4 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 6 DENVER BRONCOS 7 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 8 ATLANTA FALCONS 9 HOUSTON TEXANS 10 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 11 OAKLAND RAIDERS 12 DALLAS COWBOYS 13 BUFFALO BILLS 14 LOS ANGELES RAMS 15 ARIZONA CARDINALS 16 BALTIMORE RAVENS 17 CINCINNATI BENGALS 18 N.Y. JETS 19 WASHINGTON 20 N.Y. GIANTS 21 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 22 CAROLINA PANTHERS 23 TENNESSEE TITANS 24 DETROIT LIONS 25 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 26 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 27 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 28 CHICAGO BEARS 29 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 31 MIAMI DOLPHINS 32 CLEVELAND BROWNS
Down 2 OTs now, but haven’t been close to loss yet Maybe No. 1 but that was just the Brownies That ‘D’ could be great by end of season Apparently Eagles game was just a blip
Jets spanking convinced a lot of doubters
Never said they were perfect; has Lynch era begun? Just one loss but kind of a bad one
Big win in Denver; ‘D’ has more to prove Can Osweiler figure it out vs. Colts?
Check Reid’s record coming off the bye 4-1 is 4-1 but need a quality win
Really impressed over Cincy, but is that a quality win? Rex on a run; Pats rematch will define them
Power Rankings Welcome to our ProFootballWeekly.com NFL Week Six Power Rankings
Please keep in mind as you read them they have nothing to do with who we think will be in the playoffs and Super Bowl in 12-16 weeks, nor do they necessarily indicate who we think the best teams in the league are. These rankings are based on each team’s performance in the first five weeks of the season, players lost to injury and players expected to return soon. AP PHOTO
Typical Fisher team; Keenum clearly not the answer Need to turn it on right now
OC takes the fall, now can Flacco turn ‘em around No idea what to make of them after Dallas flop Schedule’s been an absolute killer, as has Fitzpatrick Starting to think Jay Gruden’s a pretty good football coach Still in middle of division race, but must-win Sunday Statement win for Koetter in Carolina
This is about a lot more than Josh Norman Just me or is Mariota not progressing? Caldwell saves his job ... for now
Bought some time, but it was the Bears
Sunday in Chicago turning point for Bradley, up or down So why exactly is Sean Payton worth $45 million? Time to challenge what OC Loggains is doing Hard not to feel for McCoy
Can Kaep prove he should have started sooner?
Sam Bradford and the Minnesota Vikings are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL
Never saw them being this bad
Never doubted they’d be this bad
T
hroughout the past offseason and the 2016 preseason, questions rained about whether or not John Fox and the Chicago Bears had made the right choice in replacing departed offensive coordinator Adam Gase with quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains. I have done my best to remain steadfast in saying it is unfair to offer an opinion until Loggains at least had enough games to give us a body of work to judge him on. It’s time, and we should be very worried. Roughly 500 words to go and I can already see my inbox. “What’s the matter with you, you clown. The Bears are ninth in total offense, second in the league in average gain per play, sixth in passing and they’re coming off a game in which they put up 522 yards of offense!“ True. Sadly, it is also true the Bears are 28th in time of possession, 30th in points per game and 1-4. I am not lobbying for Loggains’ firing, resignation or a change at offensive coordinator for the Bears right
now. spiracy to commit murLoggains is more der every time it drops than entitled; in fact, the to pass protect, how do Bears owe him at least you help it out? one full season to prove Let them fire off the his worth and then we football and punch peocan all re-evaluate at the ple in the mouth by runend of the year. ning it right at them. What I am saying is When the most prohe currently has his ductive and explosive offense pointed in the player on your offense wrong direction, one is your rookie running that is not consistent back, how do you take with what Fox told us advantage? was his system, not Feed him the football! HUB ARKUSH Gase’s when he hired harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com When your backup @Hub_Arkush Loggains, and one that quarterback has to play is likely to cost him his and is far more focused job and put a stain on his future if he on not making plays to lose than he is on doesn’t figure it out. making plays to win – which is why he’s Part of the problem is Brian Hoyer, a backup – how do you help him out? but he’s the smaller part. More here in Pound the rock and force defenses a moment. to make them easier to attack through When your defense is missing half the air. its starters, what’s the best way to proAgainst the Colts, the Bears ran the ball 29.5 percent of the time despite tect it? Eat the clock on offense and keep averaging 6.7 yards a pop on 18 carries while throwing the football 43 times. them off the field. On the season, the Bears are runWhen your offensive line risks con-
ning the ball 35 percent of the time, which ranks them 30th in the NFL. Only New Orleans and Kansas City are worse. The top 10 teams in the NFL in run/ pass ratio – 49ers, Cowboys, Patriots, Bills, Vikings, Titans, Rams, Broncos, Eagles, Falcons – have a combined record of 33-16. The bottom 10 – Raiders, Giants, Dolphins, Ravens, Colts, Washington, Jaguars, Bears, Saints and Chiefs – are 20-27. It isn’t rocket science, folks, and there is one more point that isn’t terribly complicated either. Of the 128 passes Brian Hoyer has attempted in his three starts, Alshon Jeffery has been targeted 18 times. The Bears made him their franchise player. Shouldn’t they at least try and get him the ball on more than 6.3 percent of their plays or at least more than 14 percent of their pass plays? Absolutely, defenses are trying to take him away, which they can because they don’t have to stack to stop the run. It’s Loggains’ job to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
Bears not committed enough to the run
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
Bears rushing offense vs Jaguars run defense Jordan Howard is coming off back-to-back 100yard games, the latter of which included a 57-yard run. He probably should have gotten more than the 16 carries he received in Indianapolis. The rookie continues to show his strong running abilities, pushing forward, breaking tackles and getting an extra gear in the open field. Helping that has been an offensive line that is quickly becoming the Bears’ strongest unit – just watch how they moved the Colts on Howard’s long run. Things are humming for the rushing attack, which faces a Jaguars defense that is in the middle of the league
playmaking ‘backer. This is not a matchup the Bears will dominate, but if they commit to the run and get Howard moving with the zone scheme consistently, they’ll have an advantage.
EDGE u BEARS
against the run. They did allow Frank Gore to rush for 4.3 yards per carry in London, but have yet to allow 100 yards on the ground in a game. Veteran linebacker Paul Posluszny anchors the middle of the defense. He has good instincts to bring down ball carriers, and will get help from outside linebacker Telvin Smith, a very athletic,
Bears passing offense vs Jaguars pass defense The Bears’ passing attack is an interesting one to analyze with Brian Hoyer at the helm. He has been incredibly efficient, having yet to throw an interception while completing an astounding 71.4 percent of his passes. Hoyer
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7:30 P.M. THURSDAY, NBC
Coming off first loss, will Denver turn it back over to Trevor Siemian? How will Bolts turn a win into a loss this week?
49ERS AT BILLS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, FOX
Finally, a chance to discuss Colin Kaepernick the player, not protester. LeSean McCoy’s play is expected, but Lorenzo Alexander leading resurgent Bills ‘D.’
JAGUARS AT BEARS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
London win will be forgotten fast if Gus Bradley’s club doesn’t make it two straight; Bears will have tough time forgetting missed chances in Indy.
RAMS AT LIONS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, FOX
Rams came down to earth in mind-numbing loss to Buffalo, while Jim Caldwell bought himself time with upset of Eagles.
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
Antonio Brown has a new dance partner in Sammie Coates; the ‘Phins have a lot of problems and no clear solutions.
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
Blake Bortles
AP PHOTOS
Brian Hoyer
is coming off a 397-yard, two-touchdown career performance … but the Bears lost and managed only 23 points, and he missed an open Alshon Jeffery on the last play. Hoyer has to balance his efficient ball distribution with taking chances to Jeffery. What has been working, too, is his pass protection – the O-line has allowed only three sacks in the past three weeks, and zero in Indianapolis, and that will be key against Jacksonville. Rookie Yannick Ngakoue has three of the team’s 12 sacks, while Dante Fowler has two. Those edge rushers, plus high-priced three-technique Malik Jackson (four QB hits) can get after Hoyer. Opposing QBs have a 92.7 rating against the Jags. Rookie corner Jalen Ramsey leads a secondary that includes Tashaun Gipson and fresh-off-the-suspended list Aaron Colvin. With Hoyer running the offense the way he has, the Bears will get theirs in this matchup.
EDGE u BEARS
Jaguars rushing offense vs Bears run defense This may be the most important matchup if the Bears want to get the victory on Sunday. The Jaguars struggled mightily running the ball the first three weeks before T.J. Yeldon went off for 5.1 yards per carry against Indianapolis. He and Chris Ivory are tough backs to bring down, so the Bears’ front seven will need to be sure tacklers. Getting Danny Trevathan back was a boost vs. the Colts, but the run ‘D’ let Frank Gore average 5.4 yards a pop last week. The Jaguars are last in the league on third down, due in part to the issues running the ball behind a shaky offensive line. Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Will Sutton and Akiem Hicks can help the Bears get a win if they make stops on early downs, putting the Jaguars into third-and-long situations they haven’t converted at a good rate. This is far from a strength vs. strength battle, but a significant one for both teams.
EDGE u EVEN
Jaguars passing offense vs Bears pass defense With help from a better rushing attack, Blake Bortles played turnover-free ball against the Colts while throwing two touchdowns in the 30-27 win. The third-year signal-caller got off to a shaky start with six picks in his first three games. He has good size, a strong arm and can move the pocket, not to mention an outstanding receiver to throw to – Allen Robinson. Maybe the Jaguars’ best player, Robinson leads the team in receiving and will stress the secondary with his size and ability to catch anything thrown in his direction. Robinson, Bortles, receiver Allen Hurns and tight end Julius Thomas probably have enjoyed watching the way Andrew Luck picked apart the Bears’ secondary last week, putting up near-perfect numbers when throwing to T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen. Bortles has the weapons, but is mistake-prone and does not have a blue-chip O-line. The Bears have to be consistent in the pass rush and the onus will be on Tracy Porter and the corners and safeties to be tighter in coverage against a high-octane group.
EDGE u JAGUARS
Sunday’s overall edge For the third week in a row, the Bears face a potentially prolific offense that is paired with a below-average defense – the Jaguars are giving up 27.8 points per game. Chicago is 1-1 in these games and should have learned last week that they cannot continue to leave points on the field. The Jaguars are well rested off their bye and confident after a win over Indianapolis. The Bears remain banged-up, but should feel good about the offense. Home-field doesn’t mean much, but with the Packers and Vikings up next, the Bears have to understand the premium on beating the Jaguars.
EDGE u BEARS
A must-win in Foxborough is an unpleasant place for Marvin Lewis; what, you expected Tom Brady to be rusty?
PANTHERS AT SAINTS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, FOX
Cam Newton and Drew Brees deserve better, but the loser in this one can start making vacation plans for January.
RAVENS AT GIANTS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
John Harbaugh hoping another in-season coordinator change spurs Super Bowl run; tantrum-free OBJ game still spells another loss.
BROWNS AT TITANS 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
Cleveland could use Carson Wentz right about now; Titans finally get a strong, winning performance from Mariota.
EAGLES AT WASHINGTON 12:00 P.M. SUNDAY, FOX
Mathews’ fumble, not Wentz’ first pick, halted Eagles’ win streak; Washington benefited from bad NFL rule but also good ‘D’ for third victory.
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS 3:05 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
Did Chiefs find a pass rush during the bye week? Raiders’ 4-1 start great, but not sustainable without defense.
COWBOYS AT PACKERS 3:25 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
NFL’s best rushing attack meets NFL’s top rushing defense in another collision of strength against strength.
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS 3:25 P.M. SUNDAY, CBS
Could these be the NFC’s top two teams outside the NFC North? Seattle’s speed at LB means Atlanta could turn from RBs back to Julio.
COLTS AT TEXANS 7:30 P.M. SUNDAY, NBC
Something tells us this clash of middling AFC South clubs won’t be the primetime ratings boost NFL covets.
JETS AT CARDINALS 7:30 P.M. SUNDAY, ESPN
Is it possible Todd Bowles and Bruce Arians need each other? Gang Green’s season appears lost but Cardinals get Palmer back after mini-bye.
TEAMS ON BYE Vikings, Buccaneers
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
(+2.5) Hub
Kevin
Arthur
Bob
Adam
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Daily Herald
Chicago Sun-Times
ARKUSH
FISHBAIN
Bears 26 Jaguars 24 I’ve got the same logic third straight week: two even/bad teams in must-win game, Bears at home. SEASON RECORD: 4-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-2
ARKUSH
Bears 29 Jaguars 28 Hard to fathom Bears being 1-7 at the bye, but a loss here would make it likely. SEASON RECORD: 4-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-4
LEGERE
Bears 20 Jaguars 27 Bears are reeling just as Jags getting re-energized; Hoyer is due for a letdown against talented Jacksonville ‘D.’ SEASON RECORD: 3-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-2-1
JAHNS
Bears 24 Jaguars 21 If they don’t win this one, the season’s over for the Bears – if it isn’t already. SEASON RECORD: 3-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-2
Bears 24 Jaguars 21 Might as well pick the Bears this week. Can’t the next two weeks vs. Vikings, Packers. Plus, the Jags aren’t good. SEASON RECORD: 2-3 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-4-1
Jon
Kristin
Eric
Dan
Kyle
Northwest Herald
Kendall County Record
Daily Chroncile
Pro Football Weekly
Kankakee Daily Journal
STYF
SHARP
OLSON
McCALEB
NABORS
Bears 24 Jaguars 28
Bears 29 Jaguars 20
Bears 28 Jaguars 16
Bears 20 Jaguars 24
My string of luck on these picks has to run out eventually, but it won’t this week against a rested Jaguars team.
Brian Hoyer is playing turnover-free football, and Alshon Jeffery is due for an end zone celebration (or two).
Bears should be able to run against Jags’ defense, opening things up for passing game.
Coming off their bye, Blake Bortles, Jags steal one at Soldier Field.
SEASON RECORD: 5-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 5-0
SEASON RECORD: 2-3 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-3
SEASON RECORD: 2-3 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-4
SEASON RECORD: 3-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-2
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Howard has ideal blend of power, speed, vision
B
ears running back Jordan Howard should have kept running. But he didn’t. Colts safety Mike Adams approached, and Howard tried to fight him off with a stiff arm and failed. “I definitely feel like I still should have just kept running,” Howard said. “I felt like I had an angle on him and he got behind me.” That’s how a 57-yard run turns into a learning moment for a rookie back. “In the games, I just have to trust my speed sometimes,” he said. As impressive as Howard has been in two starts, it’s thought that he’s got more to show. He thinks it. The Bears think it. And the rest of the NFL is starting to think it. With the Bears at 1-4 and this season more about development than anything else, Howard is their most intriguing player to watch. “He has a bright future,” coach John Fox said. The Bears drafted Howard because of his power. It would be the perfect complement to Jeremy
ing what he’s seeing. Langford’s speed. Now Howard is setting up it’s looking like Langthose who want to ford’s speed will be tackle him. best used as a compleHis 57-yard run inment to Howard, who cluded a bad fit by has run for 296 yards Colts cornerback Paton 51 carries. rick Robinson. Howard Langford probamade his cut inside of bly scores on the run guard Kyle Long, who Howard turned into reached the second leva 57-yard gain. He’s el and swallowed linefaster. There is no backer D’Qwell Jackdisputing that. But son. Robinson filled a Howard is proving ADAM JAHNS hole outside of Long. to be faster than the ajahns@ww.com “I definitely feel @ajahns scouting world initiallike my vision has imly thought. If Howard proved,” Howard said. keeps his focus on the end zone, “I know what I’m doing just knowthere is a good chance he still outing the blocking schemes and knowraces Adams for the points. Howard ing how to set up blocks.” actually slowed up in an attempt to Some teams will have answers for fend him off. Howard. And he’ll have to scale the Offensive coordinator Dowell rookie wall at some point. Loggains said bigger backs can But over the past two weeks, Howstruggle in outside zone runs, but ard has looked like the ideal blend that’s not the case with Howard. His of power, speed and vision behind feet are quick enough to handle inan offensive line that’s built strongly from the inside out. side and outside zone runs. “[Howard has] better feet, better Howard’s vision might be his best vision and even better speed than attribute. It helps him be patient. And he’s getting better at diagnoswhat you would see in a back that
size,” Loggains said.
•••
Pro Football Focus’ grades for offensive linemen are often disputed. Sometimes there is just too much going on up front as far as assignments to know exactly what linemen are trying to do on plays. But their latest grade for rookie center Cody Whitehair is important to point out. PFF ranked Whitehair as their 10th best player in Week 5 as far as individual performances. Others on that list included Broncos star pass rusher Von Miller and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. The Bears have something in Whitehair. He’s been that good. Everyone is starting to see it.
•••
Since Fox is concerned about press-box menus these days, let’s point out who tops our power rankings for the best grub in the league. It’s Lambeau Field and the Packers. Go figure. There always are cheese curds. Heck, they’ve been known to add a carving station. A brat station also is a staple.
Time for the Bears to be a run-first team
C
riticism of the Bears’ offense may seem misplaced after it accumulated 522 yards in Week 5, the most ever in franchise history in a defeat. But the key word in that statistic is the last one, “defeat.” It’s no coincidence that the Bears’ only victory in five tries this year was also the only game in which they ran the ball more than 20 times. By running 29 times in the Week 4 17-14 victory over the Lions, the Bears built a 33:14-26:46 advantage in time of possession, keeping a dangerous Detroit offense at bay. In the three previous games, all losses, the Bears lost the time-of-possession battle by a whopping average of 35:54-24:06. Coach John Fox came to Chicago with a reputation for prioritizing the ground game. But, in the Bears’ four defeats, they have called for run plays 18 times in three of them and just 12 in the other. The 522 yards were impressive, but ultimately irrelevant when the
scoreboard read: opponent, and Fox reColts 29, Bears 23. alizes as much. “Obviously, we “He’s a good, young ended up with a little player,” said the bit less [on the scoreBears’ coach. “He is board] than they did,” big and physical. He Fox said. “I don’t know has good vision. He if you’re ever pleased has a bright future.” The future is now, with that. I think we and the Bears would did some good things be wise to ride Howard but not quite enough as often as possible. good things.” Howard is the only That could have rookie in franchise been different if offenBOB LeGERE sive coordinator Dowhistory with 100-yard rlegere@dailyherald.com ell Loggains called games in each of his @BobLeGere more than eight run first two starts, going plays in the second for 111 yards on 23 half. carries in the Week 4 victory over And it’s not as if the Bears haven’t the Lions and 118 on just 16 attempts shown the ability to pound it sucin Sunday’s loss to the Colts. He avcessfully. In the previous two weeks, eraged 5.9 yards per carry in those they’ve given fifth-round rookie Jortwo games. dan Howard the keys to the car, and That’s not to take anything away he’s driven like a pro. Now it’s time from quarterback Brian Hoyer, who to let him get behind the wheel more has played more than well enough to often. retain the starting job after Jay CutHoward looks like a player who ler returns to full health. But that’s can help his team control the tempo another story. An increased workload for Howof a game and impose its will on an
ard keeps a shaky defense on the sidelines, where it cannot be exposed as it was against the Colts. That might be the most effective argument for a stronger commitment to the run game. In the Bears’ last three losses, they allowed 89 points, playing with a defense that is short-handed and inexperienced due to injuries. If six Hoyer kneel-downs are eliminated, the Bears have just 94 run plays through five weeks, compared to 197 pass plays, counting 11 sacks. That ratio is way too lopsided unless your quarterback is Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, etc. And now that Ka’Deem Carey is back from a hamstring injury, the Bears don’t have to rely completely on the rookie. Add opening day starter Jeremy Langford, who should be back from an ankle injury soon, and the Bears have three runners who present defenses with different styles and strengths. It doesn’t matter how the Bears run it, as long as they do it more frequently.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |
High-flying Steelers vs. lowly Dolphins a fantasy dream By J.C.
TALON
W
Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com
hat do you do when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? That is the dilemma facing fantasy owners as Atlanta and their No. 1 offense travels to face the No. 1 defense in Seattle. We’ve been slow to come around on Atlanta, but after dominating the previously undefeated Broncos in Denver, Falcons doubters should be reconsidering their position. Atlanta is averaging a mammoth 457 yards per game – 60 yards more than the second-ranked Cowboys. On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defense is allowing just 264 yards per game. Our advice? Obviously, this is a better fantasy matchup for Seattle. Atlanta’s defense is ranked 26th and Russell Wilson is a lot better than Paxton Lynch. But even though this is a tough matchup for Atlanta’s ‘O’, Julio Jones remains a must start every week, and it would be very difficult to sit Matt Bryant or Devonta Freeman. Tevin Coleman is worth a look, especially in PPR leagues, but avoid Matt Bryant and the Falcons D/ST. Go ahead and play your Seahawks, including their D/ST. On to the rest of Week 6 …
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT Pittsburgh Steelers
OPPONENT: AT MIAMI DOLPHINS, SUNDAY, NOON Miami’s 28th-ranked defense is giving up more than 400 yards of offense per game. The Steelers counter with the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense. The Dolphins have given up the most rushing yards in the league and look like a team on the verge of collapse. Since getting pantsed by the Eagles in Week 3, the Steelers have gained 869 yards and scored 74 points in the past two weeks. Sammie Coates is finally emerging as the No. 2 option in Pittsburgh, but he is still dropping too many passes. MUST START: Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown SOLID PLAY: Coates, Chris Boswell, Steelers D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Jesse James LAST RESORT: Markus Wheaton STAY AWAY: DeAngelo Williams
Carolina Panthers
OPPONENT: AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, NOON The enduring incompetence of the Saints’ defense is equal parts comical and baffling. Yielding 423 yards of offense per game, New Orleans is ranked 31st in defense for the third consecutive season. You would think, at some point, improving the defense might become a priority for Saints brass. Until someone in the bayou gets the memo, fantasy owners should take advantage. It’s been a nightmare of a season for the Panthers, but this would be a good time to right the ship, for one week anyway. Cam Newton (concussion) should be back and he’s the best QB play of the week. Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) should also return, but be sure to check the status of both players. This is also a good matchup for Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense. As of this writing there was no over/under on the game, but it’s likely to be around 50. Carolina’s defense is not what it used to be. MUST START: Newton*, Greg Olsen
SOLID PLAY: Stewart*, Kelvin Benjamin, Graham Gano WORTH A LOOK: Cameron Artis-Payne (if no Stewart) LAST RESORT: Fozzy Whitaker, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn STAY AWAY: Panthers D/ST
Tennessee Titans
OPPONENT: VS CLEVELAND BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON Tennessee is no offensive juggernaut, but Cleveland is giving up right around 30 points and 400 yards per game. The Titans rolled up 398 yards last week in Miami and they should enjoy similar success this week. Marcus Mariota has limited fantasy value over the season, but he’s worth considering this week. He threw for only 163 yards in Miami, but notched three TD passes and ran for 60 yards and a score. DeMarco Murray is coming off a 127-yard performance and is one of the best RB plays of the week. MUST START: Murray, Delanie Walker SOLID PLAY: Mariota, Titans D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Derrick Henry, Ryan Succop LAST RESORT: Tajae Sharpe, Rishard Matthews
Houston Texans
OPPONENT: VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, SUNDAY, 7:30 Is it too early to “flex” the Sunday night game? Though this game is meaningful to the standings in a bad AFC South, the two teams featured have been outscored a combined 252-219. Houston has been terrible on offense, averaging just 16.4 points per game – tied with the Rams for dead last in the NFL. They’ve not been much better with yardage, producing 310 yards (27th) per game. Wait a minute – this is listed as a matchup to exploit, so let’s change gears here. If Houston were ever going to get things going – and if Brock Osweiler were ever going to begin to live up to the bajillion dollars (might need to fact check his contract) he got last offseason – this would be the week. The Colts and their 30th ranked ‘D’ just allowed Brian Hoyer to throw for 397 yards. Yes, the same Brian Hoyer who was ridden out of Houston on a rail after he was intercepted 47 times in a playoff loss (again, fact check that INT stat). DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller should produce much better than last week when they faced a ferocious Minnesota defense. Because Houston trailed the entire game, Lamar Miller got just nine touches in the loss to the Vikings. Miller should get a heavy workload this week and it would be an excellent time for his first TD as a Texan. MUST START: Miller, Hopkins SOLID PLAY: Fuller, Nick Novak, Texans D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Osweiler LAST RESORT: Jaelen Strong, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ryan Griffin
ALSO CONSIDER Denver Broncos
OPPONENT: AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, THURSDAY, 7:25 San Diego’s defense is giving up 375 yards of total offense and 28.4 points per game. Assuming Trevor Siemian returns from his shoulder injury, the Broncos should be able to reach those numbers.
Philadelphia Eagles
OPPONENT: AT WASHINGTON, SUNDAY, NOON Fantasy owners might be surprised to learn
that the Eagles and their 12th-ranked offense have outgained and outscored Arizona and Indianapolis – teams that were expected to produce a lot of yardage and points. The season is still young and it remains to be seen if Philadelphia can maintain the pace. Facing Washington’s 27th-ranked defense, they have an opportunity to keep it going for one week, at least.
MATCHUPS TO AVOID San Francisco 49ers
OPPONENT: AT BUFFALO BILLS, SUNDAY, NOON There’s not much to like about SF on any given week, but traveling across country to play an early game against a feisty defense … well, matchups don’t get much worse than this one. Buffalo is a middle-of-the-road 15th in yards allowed, but only four teams have allowed fewer points than the Bills’ 17.4 per game. MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: None WORTH A LOOK: Carlos Hyde LAST RESORT: Jeremy Kerley, Vance McDonald* STAY AWAY: Colin Kaepernick, Torrey Smith, Phil Dawson, 49ers D/ST
Cincinnati Bengals
OPPONENT: AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, SUNDAY, NOON It’s not been a good season thus far for Cincinnati. Since a close victory over the Jets in Week 1, the Bengals have just one victory (against a bad Miami team). Cincy has yet to score more than 23 points in a game. Their offense is ranked fifth in passing, but just 26th in rushing. They are gaining a meager 3.4 yards per attempt. The Pats have the league’s 13thranked defense (9th against the run, 18th against the pass). Jeremy Hill (chest) appeared on last week’s injury report but was removed from the list on Friday. However, he did not start the game and had only four carries in the second half when he aggravated the injury and did not return. If Hill is inactive, Giovani Bernard is worth a look, especially in PPR. MUST START: A.J. Green SOLID PLAY: None WORTH A LOOK: Andy Dalton, Bernard, Brandon LaFell LAST RESORT: Hill*, Mike Nugent STAY AWAY: C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Kroft, Bengals D/ ST
Dallas Cowboys
OPPONENT: AT GREEN BAY PACKERS, SUNDAY, 3:25 Probably the most interesting game of the week, this looks like a well-below-average matchup for the Cowboys and their second-ranked offense. Green Bay is allowing just 2 yards per rush attempt. If Ezekiel Elliot is contained, the Cowboys will be forced out of their comfort zone. On the other hand, Dallas seems to rise to the challenge each week, and Elliot is an elite RB. Bryant is likely to be sidelined until after next week’s bye – but monitor his status. MUST START: Elliot SOLID PLAY: None WORTH A LOOK: Dak Prescott, Bryant*, Jason Witten LAST RESORT: Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Dan Bailey* STAY AWAY: Cowboys D/ST *Check injury status
By JOHN
SAHLY
E
jsahly@shawmedia.com
arly on in the fantasy football season is one of the more volatile times when it comes to roster construction. The reason is simple: We don’t have enough data yet to know who these teams are. And while we’re still not there yet, four weeks is enough time and enough of a sample size that we can begin to get away from our reliance on 2015 data. It’s old, and starting to bust in certain places. So, after four weeks, what can we reasonably say about good opportunities for your fantasy football team, and how can we use that data with some certainty. Here are a couple of situations I feel confident about after four weeks:
1) The Lions still can’t defend tight ends My colleague Arthur Arkush wrote about this in detail, but it’s worth pointing out again. The Lions are historically bad against tight ends, taking over from last year’s Raiders and Saints debacles against the position. Injuries to the linebacking corps and a reliance on blitzing to pressure the quarterback have left tight ends wide open against the Lions, with no signs of slowing down. Detroit has allowed six (six!) touchdowns to tight ends through four games. Tight ends have averaged six receptions for 64 yards and 1.5 touchdowns a game. But you know who has been even worse? The Falcons, who have given up five touchdowns and an average of 85 yards a game to tight ends. Atlanta gets Denver and a banged-up Virgil Green this week, so I’m still looking
at the returning Zach Ertz, but look for Jimmy Graham to potentially be in a monster spot in Week 6 against the Falcons.
2) The Packers, Jets, Titans are funnel defenses So let’s define funnel defense first: A defense that is great against the run, but weak against the pass. In other words, these defenses are so good at stopping the run, that offenses are forced to go to the air, where they find success because those defenses don’t have the personnel to stop both the run and the pass. Green Bay has especially proven that to be true in the first month, allowing just 128 rushing yards and one touchdown in three games. Meanwhile, the Packers give up an average of 227 yards to receivers, and have allowed four touchdowns on just 42 receptions. That’s why in DFS for Week 4, I’m not afraid to target Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr., despite their struggles. Beckham especially won’t be popular after another meltdown on national TV, which makes him a great contrarian option this week. As for the Jets, their fearsome front seven has forced teams to go the air, where Darrelle Revis and company have been roasted for 797 yards on just 66 catches by receivers. Antonio Brown is expensive, but don’t be afraid of a matchup with Revis. Sammie Coates makes a great sleeper play this week, too. The Titans have been bad and trailing, so they’re seeing a lot of rushing attempts against them. But they aren’t allowing RBs into the end zone, with just one TD allowed on the ground. Look to that burnable secondary for fantasy goodness.
AP PHOTO
Fantasy owners should stick with Odell Beckham Jr. even tough he has yet to score a touchdown this season
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
DFS: Four weeks in, what do we know? And how can we use it?
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
By
ARTHUR ARKUSH OVERVIEW
They call him ‘Big Play’ for a reason. Darius Slay, Detroit’s No. 1 corner and best defender as long as Ezekiel Ansah and DeAndre Levy remain sidelined, is the man most responsible for extending the Lions’ season in Week 5. In a twoplay span late in the fourth quarter against the Eagles, Slay generated two takeaways – which tripled the season total for coordinator Teryl Austin’s group and helped snap the Lions’ threegame slide. Slay’s crunch-time performance salvaged a strong first half by Matthew Stafford and the offense one week after it laid an egg in Chicago. The win also takes the heat off Jim Caldwell – for now – as illustrated by the usually stoic boss’ animated sideline celebration following Slay’s forced fumble. The Rams remain surprisingly atop the NFC West despite falling to the Bills at home, 30-19.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Aaron Donald’s 14 QB hits are tied with Vikings DT Tom Johnson for the NFL lead. He’ll tussle with RG Larry Warford and struggling Lane Tech graduate Laken Tomlinson, who was benched twice from his left guard post in Week 5. Donald had a pair of sacks in Detroit’s 21-14 road defeat to the Rams last December.
OVERVIEW
Another uneven offensive showing and unrelenting defensive outing propelled the Packers to 3-1 following their 23-16 home victory over the Giants. Despite missing its top corners, Sam Shields (concussion) and Damarious Randall (groin), Dom Capers’ group grounded a sputtering Giants offense with a steady pass rush that capitalized against turnstile LT Ereck Flowers. Aaron Rodgers and Co. emerged from the bye with another methodical start on offense, powered by balance, superb protection and ball control to build a 17-6 halftime lead they wouldn’t relinquish. But Rodgers’ blockers and receiver Randall Cobb, not Rodgers, looked like the best players on the field – a sight we’re still not used to seeing, as increasingly often as it appears. Dallas’ sensational rookie backfield of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott led the Cowboys to a dominating win over Cincinnati.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
It’s a far cry from immobile Eli Manning and middling Orleans Darkwa and Bobby Rainey to Prescott and Elliott. The NFL’s stoutest run ‘D’ – and it’s not close – faces a step up in class when Dallas rides its young horses into Lambeau. Nick Perry and Clay Matthews will be tested by rushers who can gain the edge instantly, and Mike Daniels and Letroy Guion versus Pro Bowl C Travis Frederick and All-Pro RG Zach Martin should make for terrific battles.
QB: In purple for just over a month, Sam Bradford’s 109.7 passer rating ranks No. 2 in the NFL and is more than 20 points higher than his career mark. Grade: A+ RB: With Adrian Peterson out, Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata are gaining just 3.0 yards a pop behind a makeshift O-lin e. Grade: C+ WR: Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Cordarrelle Patterson have relegated top pick Laquon Treadwell to the sidelines. Grade: B TE: Kyle Rudolph, deployed more creatively by Norv Turner, has been arguably Bradford’s most invaluable resource. Grade: AOL: This group deserves a lot of credit for its resilience, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations after offseason renovations. Grade: C+ DL: From Everson Griffen to
Linval Joseph and everywhere in between, this is the engine that keeps the NFL’s best ‘D’ dominant. Grade: A+ LB: Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks have been excellent – and there’s still ample room for improvement. Grade: A CB: Welcome to superstardom, Xavier Rhodes. The ageless Terence Newman, underrated Captain Munnerlyn and ascending Trae Waynes round out the NFL’s best CB stable. Grade: A+ S: Harrison Smith gives Mike Zimmer so much flexibility. Andrew Sendejo has been nothing if not solid. Grade: A ST: Blair Walsh won’t last without vast improvement, but Marcus Sherels, Cordarrelle Patterson and P Jeff Locke have been great. Grade: B COACHES: Aggressive and adaptable, Zimmer’s staff is the NFL’s best. Grade: A
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T
he Way We Hear It, San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly is absolutely telling the truth when he says his decision to switch from Blaine Gabbert to Colin Kaepernick is a football decision only and has nothing to do with reports Kaepernick’s contract was recently restructured to limit the team’s exposure to guaranteed money. But that doesn’t make Kelly the most honest guy in the world, he’s just telling the truth now. As proof of his honesty, Kelly made the reasonable argument that if he was not playing Kaepernick to avoid the risk of injury and the team owing him money he might not earn on the field, why has Kaepernick been his No. 2 in recent weeks while Christian Ponder has remained inactive, leaving Kaepernick just one hit away from having to take the field anyway and being exposed to the mayhem? It’s a reasonable explanation. But Kelly has not been consistently straightforward in the early weeks of the season, according to our sources, letting it leak to the media that Kaepernick wasn’t getting a shot because he had been slow recovering from three offseason surgeries and that he just wasn’t ready yet. Kelly can’t have it both ways. If Kaepernick had not been physically ready to give it a go until now, by Kelly’s own logic, why has he been the No. 2 and one hit to Gabbert away from being forced onto the field? One other note on why Kaepernick hasn’t been on the field: sources close to both Kelly and general manager Trent Baalke are certain Kaepernick’s time as an observer has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not he stands at attention with his hand over his heart or takes a knee during the National Anthem. First of all, let’s be honest: with his 58.0 completion percentage, 5.9 yards per attempt, 5 TDs, 6 INTs and 69.6 passer rating, it is probably past the time for Gabbert to grab some pine. Like so many great college quarterbacks, and Gabbert was that, he is at his best a quality backup
Colin Kaepernick
AP PHOTO
at the next level. Kelly’s program cannot progress without more at the most important of all positions. Christian Ponder isn’t as good as Gabbert, and the fact that the Jaguars wasted the 10th pick overall on Gabbert and the Vikings blew a 12th overall on Ponder is no reason for the 49ers and their fans to continue to suffer. We should point out that pretty much every source we talk to agrees the 49ers offer a good lead
back in Carlos Hyde and are reasonably able at tight end, but their offensive line and wide receiver corps have done Gabbert no favors and are unlikely to be much kinder to anyone else. But Kaepernick is one of the best athletes ever to play the position in the NFL and he was one of the dominant offensive threats in the game starting at quarterback for the Niners under Jim Harbaugh from 2012-2014. His career 59.9 completion percentage is acceptable, and his 88.5 passer rating is well above average. Where Kaepernick has been extremely strong is with his career 56-to-26 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and during his two-plus seasons as a starter, Kaepernick averaged 526 yards a season rushing and 6.0 yards per attempt. His résumé also includes six postseason starts and a 4-2 record in those games. So why has Kelly been so reluctant to put him on the field? Rumors of Kaepernick’s “different” personality began to surface shortly after he became the fulltime starter in 2013, and he is not everyone’s cup of tea. He can be distant and quiet more often than not at a position that almost always yields a team leader, not a loner. But we are told that also had little to do with Kelly’s reluctance to date. According to our sources, and as was pretty clearly demonstrated in his time in Philadelphia, Kelly values his system on offense more than he necessarily values the players who run it. What we’re hearing is Kaepernick has just been slow to adapt to what Kelly wants to do and has shown little willingness to run the offense at the rapid-fire pace that Kelly believes is necessary for success. Kelly wants his offense lined up and ready to go with 20-to-25 seconds left on the play clock and the ball snapped before it reaches 15. That takes a commitment Gabbert was willing to make and that Kaepernick will now have to show if he wants to stay on the field for long.
Are Packers flying under the radar?
C
Jake Ryan
learly, the Minnesota Vikings are the flavor of the month in the National Football League, no one can take their eyes off the Falcons, Cowboys and Raiders, Pete Carroll appears to be doing that voodoo only he does so well again with 15 rookies on his roster, and the lineage, heritage and talent on the Patriots, Steelers and Broncos are impossible to ignore. But multiple sources are telling us the Green Bay Packers may be the team folks should be keeping an eye on each week, as they just get better and better. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are just fine and now coming off solid back-to-back outings. We have no idea what Eddie Lacy weighs or if he’s even lighter than he
was last season at all, but he’s off to an excellent start with 54 carries for 295 yards and a 5.5-yard rushing average. And the offensive line that struggled so badly last season and was rocked by the surprising release of Pro Bowler Josh Sitton at the end of training camp has played some of its best football in years the past two games, including strong efforts from Lane Taylor, Sitton’s replacement at left guard. But what is most impressive about the Packers is Dom Capers’ defense that is dominating against the run in a way not seen in the NFL in years. Capers’ unit is also playing multiple new faces and its secondary is seriously beat up. The Packers have been particularly susceptible to the run for years now and
have targeted beefing up the middle of the field. Young linebackers Jake Ryan, Blake Martinez and Kyler Fackrell, who plays on the outside spelling Julius Peppers, are all playing like real keepers, and Mike Daniels and Letroy Guion have been especially stout, allowing first round pick Kenny Clark time to grow into the position. So why the second-half letdowns? Defensive backs Morgan Burnett and Demarious Randall have both been battling groin issues while corner Sam Shields has been out since Week Two with a concussion. When the back end is fully ready to go, our sources think the Packers could be ready to play with anybody.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
Time for Kaepernick to stand up
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
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What does Cameron Meredith’s big day mean for the Bears’ WRs? NATE KEVINATKINS FISHBAIN to think that Meredith has always been this good, but it was just a crowded receivers room? Bad defense or not, he played very well, and having depth at that position is not a bad thing. Meredith has more experience than White in the offense and with Brian Hoyer, but does his big day mean a ton for the long-term? Are Bears fans supposed to get excited about a Jeffery-Meredith-White trifecta at some point? Finley: I dunno about that, Kev. There are a lot of moving parts: Jeffery’s contract situation at the end of his oneyear franchise tag and White’s return this season – or not – from a fractured fibula and
PATRICK FINLEY FINLEY PATRICK
high ankle sprain. There’s only one football, as the saying goes. Here’s what concerns me about the Bears’ offense against the Colts: Meredith had 12 targets, Jeffery six. I understand that Brian Hoyer is a skilled rhythm passer who distributes that ball all over the field, albeit on short routes. But if he can’t find Jeffery, is he qualified to run the Bears’ passing attack? Are the catches good for Meredith, but bad for the Bears? Fishbain: To quote Jeffery himself, “All I know is we didn’t win the game.” Meredith looked good, Hoyer looked good, Eddie Royal made some plays despite missing a week
of practice, but the Bears lost to a bad Colts team. Hoyer has to get more comfortable putting the ball up for Jeffery. It’s one thing to elevate Meredith, Royal and Zach Miller, but it doesn’t mean anything if the Bears lose while their highest-paid player isn’t getting the targets. Bears fans may laugh, Pat, but there’s one more receiver to think about moving forward: Marquess Wilson, who could enter the mix next week! Finley: You’re right: Wilson can come off the PUP list following Sunday’s game against the Jaguars. While he can conceivably play that Thursday in Green Bay, color me skeptical
that he’ll be ready to return. After breaking his foot — again — in June minicamp, he’ll return to practice Friday, six days before the game. That leaves him exactly two full practices. There’s no way he’ll be ready to play well. In the second half of the season, maybe he can compete with Meredith. But he’s in the last year of his deal; Meredith is in his second season. Isn’t it the Bears’ obligation to give preference to those who might be on their next good team? Or will they play the one who helps them win? Fishbain: Meredith is this regime’s guy, Wilson isn’t, so that’s noteworthy for the future – plus Wilson will be a free agent next year. Time flies! The Bears like their depth at receiver and it’s only boosted by the performance of Meredith, plus, we have yet to see this year’s draft pick, Daniel Braverman. For now, fans can get excited about a young receiver, even if it’s not the one everyone was expecting.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
I
n this week’s edition of ‘Take 2,’ Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times and Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly go back and forth on the Bears’ wide receiver developments, and what they mean: Finley: Kevin, I have two stats for you: only four players posted more receiving yards than Cam Meredith’s 130 on Sunday. Also, the Bears’ former undrafted free agent now has 182 receiving yards – five fewer than former No. 7 overall pick Kevin White had before leaving his fourth game with a high ankle sprain and spiral-fractured fibula. My questions for you: is Meredith a revelation, or the beneficiary of playing an inept Colts defense? And what does that say about the Bears’ passing attack, and of White? Fishbain: Meredith’s performance, minus the fumble, was certainly a bright spot for the Bears, but an undrafted guy who barely saw the field until Kevin White got hurt? Are we
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, ODTOBER 13, 2016
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