Bears vs Colts SINCE 1967
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6, 2016
Lion tamers
Way We Hear It CHARGERS’ McCOY IN A TOUGH PLACE
Fantasy
BRIAN HOYER LEADS THE BEARS TO THEIR FIRST WIN OF THE SEASON
IT’S TIME TO TRADE TODD GURLEY
Arkush
Take 2
PACE EARNS POSITIVE GRADE
THE LANGFORD VS HOWARD DEBATE
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
Ryan Pace’s draft classes continue to show positive returns
T
here is a narrative around these 2016 Chicago Bears that the reason they are in the second year of a complete rebuilding program is due more than anything to the miserable job of drafting done by the Jerry Angelo and Phil Emery regimes before them. While he inherited second-year players Brian Urlacher and Mike Brown upon his arrival in Chicago in June 2001, Angelo’s drafts from 2002 through 2006 produced a number of solid players that formed the nucleus of the 2006 NFC title team. It was after that Super Bowl loss that the Bears extended the contract of Lovie Smith. According to multiple sources, Smith began to flex his muscles with the personnel department from that point on and was as or more responsible for the poor drafts that followed as Angelo was. Regardless, there is no question that the roster Ryan Pace inherited in 2015 included three players he could build a contender around: Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long. Four if
you count Kyle Fuller – so for now he’s half a depending on who you miss. talk to and how they valThat’s a very good hit rate by league stanue Cutler and Fuller. For purposes of this dards. conversation, all we The second is how need to agree on is Pace many picks are conwas deeded a massive tributing, and here construction project in Pace scores very well. which even if he nailed All of his five remainevery draft, he would ing picks from 2015 need at least three years – Kevin White, Eddie to get the job done. Goldman, Hroniss GraTrying to evaluate su, Jeremy Langford right now how the build and Adrian Amos – have HUB ARKUSH is coming is truly im- harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com become starters, losing jobs only to injury. possible, as there is no @Hub_Arkush Of the 2016 group, way to evaluate a draft Leonard Floyd, Cody Whitehair, Nick in less than two and preferably three Kwiatkoski and Jordan Howard have seasons. already started games – although only But there are two things we can look Whitehair and Howard have really at and, in those regards, Pace might be earned those jobs with Kwiatkoski worthy of high marks. The first is how getting a start due to injury and Floyd many picks has he missed on, and the simply being deeded a spot. answer to date is one-and-a-half. It is also worth noting that just 25 Sixth-rounder Tayo Fabuluje from percent of the way into the season, 2015 is gone and 2016 seventh-rounder Jonathan Bullard, Deiondre’ Hall and Daniel Braverman was cut but is still DeAndre Houston-Carson are also with the team on the practice squad,
making contributions, and only Deon Bush has struggled to get on the field. Pace has also added undrafted rookie free agents Bryce Callahan, Jacoby Glenn, Cameron Meredith and Ben Braunecker, and found rookie Cre’Von LeBlanc on the waiver wire from New England and second-year starter Harold Jones-Quartey from Arizona last offseason. So far, the young GM is doing a commendable job of finding potential NFL-caliber talent, but there is a bigger test he must pass. How many of these kids are potential stars, the kind you win playoff games with? Perhaps they all are, perhaps none. That’s why it takes two or three years to figure out. But from what we’ve seen so far, I think White, Goldman, Callahan, Whitehair, Hall and Howard have all flashed some special traits. Only time will tell, but if Pace has in fact found three or four eventual Pro Bowlers already – and that is a huge ‘if’ – the Bears might have something special in the front office as well as on the field.
Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.
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Getting a little better each week
Nice win over Pats, but a rookie QB in a cast
Solid at 4-0, but victims a combined 5-11
Still time to bounce but has Palmer hit the wall?
With Brady back, now we’ll see who they are
May have saved Bradley’s job in London, for now
Week off to heal on ‘D’, offense coming around
Off the schneid but it took a gift from Chargers
Top 5 at least until somebody beats them
Colts have fallen and they can’t get up
Huge bounce back from Eagles debacle Jets beatdown easily best game so far
On the cusp, but better figure out the red zone How good can they be in life after Watt? The ‘D’ is for real but where’s the offense? NFL’s Jekyll & Hyde through first four weeks Winning but barely beating mediocre teams Do we find out who they really are on Sunday?
20. BUFFALO BILLS 21. ARIZONA CARDINALS 22. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 24. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 25. CHICAGO BEARS 26. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 27. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 28. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 29. MIAMI DOLPHINS 30. TENNESSEE TITANS 31. DETROIT LIONS 32. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Now they have a running back, what about QB?
Paxton Lynch filled in for an injured Trevor Siemian in the Broncos win over the Buccaneers on Sunday
14. DALLAS COWBOYS 15. LOS ANGELES RAMS 16. CAROLINA PANTHERS 17. NEW YORK JETS 18. WASHINGTON 19. NEW YORK GIANTS
Haven’t beaten winning team; Bengals, Pack next What’s gotten into Case Keenum? Where’s Gurley? Struggling but recent history says they’ll be back 4 quarterbacks and none better than Fitzpatrick? Handling Browns doesn’t quite move the needle Need OBJ more visible on the field, less off
Saints loss was about as ugly as it gets
Where’s Lovie Smith when they need him? No ‘D’ Kelly defends Gabbert, you have to wonder why Gase drew line in sand, now who does he bench? Why is Mularkey better for Mariota than Whiz? Caldwell might want to think about packing bags Sad but this is what Haslam asked for
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
1. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 2. DENVER BRONCOS 3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 4. GREEN BAY PACKERS 5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 6. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 7. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 8. CINCINNATI BENGALS 9. HOUSTON TEXANS 10. BALTIMORE RAVENS 11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 12. OAKLAND RAIDERS 13. ATLANTA FALCONS
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
Colts passing offense vs Bears pass defense By
KEVIN FISHBAIN
Bears rushing offense vs Colts run defense In three of four games this season, the Colts have allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Last week against Jacksonville, T.J. Yeldon averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but Indy is stronger against the run than the pass with veteran inside linebacker D’Qwell Jackson. The Bears are coming off their best rushing performance of the season when Jordan Howard went for 111 yards, averaging 4.8 yards a pop. Howard has good feet and vision to go along with a strong build that allows him to avoid going down after first contact. The Bears’ O-line is starting to play like the strength it should be with two Pro Bowlers at guard and a second-round pick at center who is off to a solid start to his NFL career. The Colts’ run defense, on paper, isn’t as bad as Detroit’s, but the Bears saw how advantageous it was to establish the run, and they’ll aim to do it again on the Lucas Oil Stadium turf with a very confident rookie back.
EDGE u BEARS
Bears passing offense vs Colts pass defense With the ground game going, Dowell Loggains was able to dial up some play-action passes against Detroit and Brian Hoyer completed them with high efficiency. Eddie Royal had a monster game, and before he got hurt, Kevin White was having the best game of his young NFL career. Maybe most importantly, the offensive line did a solid job protecting Hoyer for the second week in a row, helping him complete 77.8 percent of his passes. Even if White can’t go because of his ankle injury, this is a matchup the Bears should win. Opposing quarterbacks have a 100.4 passer rating against the Colts this season, completing 68.1 percent of their passes. The Colts have only one interception through
AP PHOTO
Filling in for an injured Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer has thrown for over 300 yards for two straight games three games and seven sacks. Their pass rush hasn’t been very effective and Indianapolis’ pass defense is a big reason the Colts are allowing 31.2 points per game, third-highest in the NFL. Having Vontae Davis back helps, and the former University of Illinois corner will use his physicality to man up Alshon Jeffery, but Hoyer did a fine job making plays even when Jeffery has been doubled.
EDGE u BEARS
Colts rushing offense vs Bears run defense
What’s working for the Colts? Well, they have Andrew Luck, who is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game. To go along with a strong arm and smarts, Luck can extend plays with his legs to beat defenses down field. He has eight touchdowns to only three picks through four games. With T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett, Luck has a pair of electric receivers. Each has a 60-plusyard touchdown reception this season. What is going wrong? Luck is getting hit a ton – the Colts have allowed a league-high 15 sacks. Jacksonville sacked Luck six times and hit him an absurd 13 times at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. The offensive tackles aren’t doing their job, but lucky for Indianapolis, a pass rush isn’t the Bears’ forte thus far. They had only two hits of Matthew Stafford last Sunday and if Leonard Floyd can play, he may not be at 100 percent. This will be a key game for safeties Adrian Amos and Harold Jones-Quartey to avoid getting beat deep. The Bears will have an opportunity to generate pressure, but can they do it consistently and effectively enough to offset what Luck can do with his wideouts? That’s a big ask.
EDGE u COLTS
Ageless wonder Frank Gore leads a Colts rushing attack that is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. Gore is a bruising back who can wear down defenses, even in his 12th NFL season. He had his best game last week, averaging 4.3 yards a touch against the Jaguars. The Colts run most of their plays up the middle behind 1st-round center Ryan Kelly, the bright spot on the O-line, where they’re averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Even without Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman, the Bears are coming off their best performance against the run, holding the Lions to 66 yards on 18 carries. Will Sutton had a strong game at nose and Jerrell Freeman, the former Colt, is the team’s best run stuffer. He will want to stick it to his former team. This is the closest battle, on paper, and it’s hardly either team’s strength. Can an undermanned Bears front seven be stout for the second week in a row?
The Colts have some similarities to the Lions in the most basic terms that their strength is in the passing game, and their weakness is on defense. The Colts have been prone to slow starts this season, relying on Luck to will them back. The Bears have had real issues scoring points, and the Colts are putting up 27 a game with the league’s second-best red-zone offense. However, they are returning from London without the luxury of a bye and looked the part of a bad football team, while the Bears should have confidence following their first win. In the end, home-field advantage, and a potential sense of urgency with a 1-3 record, should side with the Colts.
EDGE u EVEN
EDGE u COLTS
Sunday’s overall edge
7:30 p.m. Thursday, NBC
Raise your hand if you thought Drew Stanton could be responsible for saving the Cardinals’ season in Week Five.
WASHINGTON AT RAVENS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Washington back at .500 after escaping trap vs. Cleveland; Ravens’ ‘D’ back to earth, but West has run game headed north.
PATRIOTS AT BROWNS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Brady and Ninkovich return to give Pats just the firepower they need to survive a trip to the NFL’s last winless team.
EAGLES AT LIONS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Jim Schwartz returns to Detroit, where not much has changed since he left; Wentz epitomizes game-changer in Philly.
TITANS AT DOLPHINS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
The honeymoon didn’t last long in Nashville; Adam Gase has to go back to drawing board with Tannehill.
TEXANS AT VIKINGS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
With strong ‘D,’ even sans Watt, Osweiler seeking Bradford’s efficiency; Vikings look like NFC’s most complete team.
JETS AT STEELERS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Andrew Luck was sacked 6 times in the loss to the Jaguars in London
AP PHOTO
Steelers offense might be invincible; Jets undoubtedly in big trouble.
FALCONS AT BRONCOS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Alert traffic conrol: High-flying Julio and No. 1 scoring offense soaring toward Denver’s “No Fly Zone.”
BENGALS AT COWBOYS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Reinforcements on way for Bengals’ 31st-ranked red-zone offense (Eifert) and Dallas’ 25th-ranked pass rush (Lawrence).
BILLS AT RAMS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Rex Ryan and Jeff Fisher doing their best to ensure the jokes are on us.
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
San Diego is 1-3 with a plus-13 point differential, while Oakland is 3-1 with a plus-2 point differential.
LIONS AT COLTS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX
It’s possible Indy will miss Vontae Davis more than Detroit will miss Calvin Johnson in this one.
GIANTS AT PACKERS 7:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC
OBJ’s lack of discipline rubbing off on G-Men; Pack emerge from early bye with offensive optimism, healthier ‘D.’
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS 7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Jameis more than halfway to rookie INT total at quarter-pole; Carolina has tripled 2015 loss total.
TEAMS ON BYE
Eddie Royal had 7 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Lions on Sunday
AP PHOTO
Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
CARDINALS AT 49ERS
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
(-4½) Hub
Kevin
Arthur
Bob
Adam
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Daily Herald
Chicago Sun-Times
ARKUSH
FISHBAIN
ARKUSH
LEGERE
JAHNS
Bears 27 Colts 34
Bears 24 Colts 26
Bears 22 Colts 27
Bears 23 Colts 20
Bears 20 Colts 24
Would love to take Bears, but Colts need it more, both ‘D’s’ shaky, Luck has to be pick over Hoyer.
No confidence in Bears’ pass rush doing enough to keep Luck from getting Colts on track on their home turf.
Bears’ pass rush hasn’t been opportunistic enough to believe it’ll have Luck on their (and his) side.
Can a team that wins one game be on a roll? We’ll find out.
I liked what Bears did vs. Lions, but I’m not convinced they’re over their rough start. Luck is better than Stafford.
SEASON RECORD: 3-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-2
SEASON RECORD: 3-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-3
SEASON RECORD: 2-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-2-1
SEASON RECORD: 3-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-1
SEASON RECORD: 1-3 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-3-1
Jon
Kristin
Eric
Dan
Kyle
Northwest Herald
Kendall County Record
Daily Chroncile
Pro Football Weekly
Kankakee Daily Journal
STYF
SHARP
OLSON
McCALEB
NABORS
Bears 20 Colts 28
Bears 22 Colts 20
Bears 24 Colts 21
Bears 20 Colts 27
Bears 21 Colts 24
Last week’s win left Bears fans more confident in their QB and RB combo. This week, that hope will be deflated.
Red-hot Hoyer has one more win in him this week against a slow Colts defense.
Bears go 2-0 all-time at Lucas Oil Stadium against a mistake-prone, beatable Indy squad with a London hangover.
Bears are better with Hoyer at QB, but I don’t see Luck’s Colts falling to 1-4.
The Colts can’t possibly be as undisciplined as the Lions were last weekend.
SEASON RECORD: 4-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 4-0
SEASON RECORD: 2-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-2
SEASON RECORD: 2-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-3
SEASON RECORD: 2-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-2
SEASON RECORD: 3-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-1
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Bears have winnable games on the schedule
W
e’re at the quarter point of the NFL season, which means we have a better idea of which teams are good, bad or just plain ugly. As usual, the NFL is an unpredictable, mediocre mess. No one predicted 1-3 starts for the Cardinals and Panthers. The Bears? Sure. But the Cardinals and Panthers were widely considered Super Bowl contenders. So what’s ahead for the Bears? Here’s a look at some winnable games, using the first four weeks as reference. Week 5 at the Colts (1-3): Quarterback Andrew Luck has been good, but not great. Protection continues to be a problem with Luck being sacked a league-high 15 times. The Colts’ defense has struggled. Quarterbacks have a combined 100.4 passer rating against them. Week 6 vs. the Jaguars (1-3): The young and talented Jaguars haven’t met high expectations, starting with
Marcus Mariota (four QB Blake Bortles, who touchdowns, five inhas thrown six interceptions and has a 79.4 terceptions) hasn’t passer rating. Their detaken the next step in his second season. His fense might be ranked options in the passing sixth in total yards, game are limited. The but they’ve allowed Titans are tied for last the eighth most points, in the NFL in scoring 27.8 per game. with the Bears. But Week 10 at the Bucthe Titans’ defense caneers (1-3): QB Jamis in good hands with eis Winston’s sopholegendary coordinator more season has been Dick LeBeau. a struggle. His eight ADAM JAHNS interceptions trail only Week 13 vs. the 49ers ajahns@ww.com Jets QB Ryan Fitzpat(1-3): Coordinator Chip @ajahns Kelly doesn’t have the rick’s 10. They haven’t right quarterback for run the ball well, eihis offensive system. Blaine Gabbert ther. Opposing quarterbacks have (73.1 passer rating) has floundered fared well, too, posting a combined despite running back Carlos Hyde’s 106.5 passer rating against the Bucs. success. Their offense and defense Week 11 at the Giants (2-2): Receivare currently ranked 30th and 26th in er Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t been the total yards, respectively. game-breaking star he can be, as opponents have gotten inside his head Week 14 at the Lions (1-3): With and frustrated him. Similar to the the Bears’ win on Sunday as eviBears, they’ve dealt with some nodence, the Lions remain the Lions. They can produce big points, but QB table injuries, especially on defense. Matthew Stafford can be inconsisQB Eli Manning has been erratic. Week 12 vs. the Titans (1-3): QB tent. Another coaching change ap-
pears in their future if their struggles continue. The Lions can’t run the ball, and injuries have hindered the defense’s effectiveness. Week 16 vs. Washington (2-2): Back-to-back wins have improved QB Kirk Cousins’ standing in the locker room, which was reportedly shaky. He still directs a potent passing attack. But they’ve given up plenty of points on defense. Cornerback Josh Norman, their big freeagent addition, hasn’t paid off yet.
•••
You’ll surely notice that the Bears’ games against the Vikings and Packers weren’t included in the above listing. That’s because they’re among the NFL’s elite, not the mangled mess of mediocrity. Surprises can happen. Let’s not forget the Bears ruined Brett Favre Night last year when no one gave them a chance. And their matchups will be important division games, especially if the Bears beat some of the aforementioned teams. But let’s see the Bears do that first.
Hoyer giving the Bears the best chance to win
B
ears fans, as much as anyone, appreciate a good quarterback controversy, and they’ve “enjoyed” plenty of them. Maybe that’s because the Bears have had so few quality quarterbacks over the years. There haven’t been as many QB debates since Jay Cutler arrived in 2009, with the exception of Josh McCown’s phenomenal 2013 relief job. But there’s a full-fledged quarterback controversy now. And as long as eight-year veteran Brian Hoyer continues to play as well as he did in the Bears’ first victory last week, it appears he’ll hang on to the job. “It’s performance-based,” coach John Fox said the day after the 1714 victory over the Lions. “Anybody that’s performing well, I don’t think we’re going to be likely to change.” And why would they? There’s no doubt Hoyer is performing well. His 120.1 passer rating Sunday was the second highest of his eight-year career, as he improved his career win-loss record to 16-12.
about it.” He completed 77.8 percent of his passes (28The Lions game of-36) for 302 yards, was Hoyer’s second two touchdowns and straight with over 300 no interceptions. passing yards. He had 317 in the 31-17 Week Hoyer has yet to 3 loss to the Cowboys, be intercepted while most of which came throwing 97 passes, after the verdict was four of which have no longer in doubt. been for touchdowns. Hoyer’s back-to-back Cutler has one touch300-yard games were down and two interthe first by a Bears ceptions on 46 passes, quarterback in almost and he’s been sacked BOB LeGERE three years. eight times. Hoyer rlegere@dailyherald.com has been sacked just The last Bears quar@BobLeGere three times and has terback to do it was demonstrated superiMcCown, who topped 300 three times in a row against the or mobility. Rams (352), Vikings (355) and Cow“He’s a pro,” Fox said. “He works hard at it. He studies. He’s been boys (348) in Games 11-13 in 2013. there before.” Hoyer, who closed out the Week But will he be there in the starting 2 loss after Cutler was injured, now lineup next week, or whenever Cuthas a higher passer rating in each of his three games than Cutler has in ler’s sprained right thumb is comeither of his two. pletely healed? Looking down the road, the Bears “My role is to do whatever is asked no longer have a financial obligation of me,” Hoyer said after the game. to Cutler, who has already been paid “I’m going to enjoy the victory. all of the $54 million that was guarWhatever they say to me (later in the week), then that’s what I’m prepared anteed in his seven-year, $126.7 milto do. That’s being a professional lion deal that runs through 2020.
If he’s not the clear-cut starter, the Bears are unlikely to incur the $15 million cap hit he’ll cost them next year, and it gets higher after that. But 2017 is a long ways off and, even if the Bears aren’t playoff contenders, Fox won’t easily accept a step back from last year’s disappointing 6-10. So the quarterback who gives his team the best chance to win each week will be under center. Right now, that’s Hoyer, though Fox will reassess the situation when Cutler is ready to roll – possibly this week but more likely in Week 6. “We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it,” Fox said Sunday night. “I’d like to enjoy this win at least for a few hours.” The following day, Fox expounded – a bit: “We’ll evaluate it just like we do every position on the football team,” he said. “Jay has played a lot of good football. We’ll evaluate it like everything. Right now, I don’t like getting into speculation and predictions because we’ll know more on Wednesday (at practice).” What they know so far is that, in his three games, Hoyer has a 103.3 passer rating, and Cutler is at 75.7.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |
Time to unload Todd Gurley if you haven’t already By J.C.
spectable. The 49ers stink on both sides of the ball. San Fran’s 30th-ranked offense has been especially wretched. Is this the week the 49ers turn to Colin Kaepernick at QB? Who cares? WORTH A LOOK: Carlos Hyde LAST RESORT: Garrett Celek STAY AWAY: Blaine Gabbert, Jeremy Kerley, Torrey Smith, Phil Dawson, 49ers D/ST
TALON
W
Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com
hat is 3-1, sits atop the NFC West, and has scored a grand total of 63 points in four weeks? Your 2016 Los Angeles Rams … we’re still not buying them on either side of the ball. Ranked dead last in offense and 23rd in defense, this undisciplined team has somehow managed to defeat Arizona and Seattle. L.A. is too poorly coached and too undermanned on offense to keep winning. Todd Gurley owners should be open to trade offers while the second-year RB still (possibly) has some value left. And it’s probably time to adjust our expectations of Arizona’s offense and Carolina’s defense. Through four games, neither unit seems anywhere close to its level of play in 2015. Carolina is no longer a defense to steer clear of, and Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd will move down fantasy boards, especially if Carson Palmer (concussion) misses much time. Even with a healthy Palmer, the Cards look out of sync. On to Week 5 …
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT New England Patriots
OPPONENT: AT CLEVELAND BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON It’s rare to see a fantasy matchup with this much obvious upside. The Browns are clearly the worst team in the league and the Patriots not only get Tom Brady back, they will be looking to make a statement after getting shut out for the first time since 1993. Maybe this is too good to be true, the proverbial “trap game.” Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth – start your Pats. Gronk played more snaps last week and is getting closer to 100 percent. We’re going to hold off, for now, on calling him a “must start.” Martellus Bennett will continue to get targets with Brady under center. MUST START: Brady, Stephen Gostkowski SOLID PLAY: LeGarrette Blount, Julian Edelman, Gronkowski, Patriots D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Chris Hogan, Bennett LAST RESORT: James White, Danny Amendola
Philadelphia Eagles
OPPONENT: AT DETROIT LIONS, SUNDAY, NOON The Lions just gave up 408 yards of offense to a Bears unit that had previously been averaging 310. Detroit’s defense is 25th in yards allowed and is dealing with significant injuries. Philadelphia counters with an efficient offense that will be well rested after a bye. Zach Ertz returns from injury and should see a good number of targets. MUST START: Ertz* SOLID PLAY: Jordan Matthews, Eagles D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Carson Wentz, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews*, Caleb Sturgis LAST RESORT: Wendell Smallwood, Nelson Agholor
Oakland Raiders
OPPONENT: VS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, SUNDAY, 3:25 PM This contest features the highest over/under of the week (50) and is a favorable fantasy matchup for both teams. San Diego is much better against the
Houston Texans
AP PHOTO
Todd Gurley
run (7th) than against the pass (27th). That’s great news for owners of Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree. Cooper, in general, has been quiet this season. Crabtree has more receptions (26 to 20) and TDs (4 to 0). Cooper will go off one of these weeks – and this week is as good a bet as any. MUST START: Carr SOLID PLAY: Latavius Murray, Cooper, Crabtree, Sebastian Janikowski WORTH A LOOK: Clive Walford LAST RESORT: DeAndre Washington, Seth Roberts STAY AWAY: Raiders D/ST
Green Bay Packers
OPPONENT: VS NEW YORK GIANTS, SUNDAY, 7:30 PM Fantasy owners will have to decide if the Packers currently being ranked 29th in offense is an ominous sign of things to come, or simply a threegame anomaly. The Giants (11th in fewest yards allowed) have played solid defense, but Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will challenge their mediocre secondary. MUST START: Rodgers, Nelson SOLID PLAY: Eddie Lacy, Cobb, Mason Crosby WORTH A LOOK: Packers D/ST LAST RESORT: Davante Adams, Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers
ALSO CONSIDER Pittsburgh Steelers
OPPONENT: VS NEW YORK JETS, SUNDAY, NOON Thus far, the Jets’ defense has been decidedly middle of the road. After delivering a clunker in Week 3, Pittsburgh’s offense erupted against Kansas City. Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown are must starts.
Denver Broncos
OPPONENT: VS ATLANTA FALCONS, SUNDAY, 3:05 PM The Falcons are clearly better than we expected … on offense. Their 30th-ranked defense is still rather porous and Denver should score some points in this one. Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is likely to start at QB. Demaryius Thomas owners can breathe a sigh of relief – it looks like he’s back to being a legitimate fantasy WR1.
MATCHUPS TO AVOID San Francisco 49ers
OPPONENT: VS ARIZONA CARDINALS, THURSDAY, 7:25 PM Arizona has not been particularly productive on offense, but its 8th-ranked defense has been re-
OPPONENT: AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS, SUNDAY, NOON Minnesota’s defense is seventh in yards allowed and second in points allowed. Opponents are averaging just 12.5 ppg against the Vikes. That’s impressive enough on the surface, but considering the competition, it’s a remarkable feat. During Weeks 2 through 4, Minnesota faced Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning, respectively. Brock Osweiler will be scaring no one wearing purple. It’s hard to get too excited about any Texan in this game. The Vikings are proficient against the run (8th) and the pass (9th). Houston has a solid D/ ST, but Minnesota is so conservative on offense, it’s hard to see the Texans generating any defensive scoring plays. We’re calling Lamar Miller a solid play, but this matchup is well below average. Hopkins owners in smaller leagues may want to look elsewhere. The Vikings held Odell Beckham to a career-low three catches for 23 yards. SOLID PLAY: Miller WORTH A LOOK: Hopkins, Will Fuller, Texans D/ ST LAST RESORT: Ryan Griffin STAY AWAY: Osweiler, Nick Novak
Los Angeles Rams
OPPONENT: VS BUFFALO BILLS, SUNDAY, 3:25 PM Hovering around 40, this game features a season-low over/under. It’s hard to get excited about fantasy options on either team. Buffalo is allowing a lower-than-average 3.6 yards per carry, which could mean another dud for Todd Gurley. You probably have to play him, but yards are going to be hard to come by. SOLID PLAY: Gurley WORTH A LOOK: Rams D/ST LAST RESORT: Tavon Austin* STAY AWAY: Case Keenum, Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, Lance Kendricks, Greg Zuerlein
ALSO BEWARE Washington
OPPONENT: AT BALTIMORE RAVENS, SUNDAY, NOON Washington has been up and down on offense. They are more likely to be down against a very good defense. The Ravens are yielding a league-fewest 256 yards per game.
Buffalo Bills
OPPONENT: AT LOS ANGELES RAMS, SUNDAY, 3:25 PM This should be an offensive game – it will most likely offend any fans hoping to see touchdowns. The Rams’ defense (23rd in yards allowed) is overrated, but – outside of LeSean McCoy – the Bills don’t offer much in the way of fantasy options.
* — Check injury status
By JOHN
SAHLY
E
jsahly@shawmedia.com
arly on in the fantasy football season is one of the more volatile times when it comes to roster construction. The reason is simple: We don’t have enough data yet to know who these teams are. And while we’re still not there yet, four weeks is enough time and enough of a sample size that we can begin to get away from our reliance on 2015 data. It’s old, and starting to bust in certain places. So, after four weeks, what can we reasonably say about good opportunities for your fantasy football team, and how can we use that data with some certainty. Here are a couple of situations I feel confident about after four weeks:
1) The Lions still can’t defend tight ends My colleague Arthur Arkush wrote about this in detail, but it’s worth pointing out again. The Lions are historically bad against tight ends, taking over from last year’s Raiders and Saints debacles against the position. Injuries to the linebacking corps and a reliance on blitzing to pressure the quarterback have left tight ends wide open against the Lions, with no signs of slowing down. Detroit has allowed six (six!) touchdowns to tight ends through four games. Tight ends have averaged six receptions for 64 yards and 1.5 touchdowns a game. But you know who has been even worse? The Falcons, who have given up five touchdowns and an average of 85 yards a game to tight ends. Atlanta gets Denver and a banged-up Virgil Green this week, so I’m still looking
at the returning Zach Ertz, but look for Jimmy Graham to potentially be in a monster spot in Week 6 against the Falcons.
2) The Packers, Jets, Titans are funnel defenses So let’s define funnel defense first: A defense that is great against the run, but weak against the pass. In other words, these defenses are so good at stopping the run, that offenses are forced to go to the air, where they find success because those defenses don’t have the personnel to stop both the run and the pass. Green Bay has especially proven that to be true in the first month, allowing just 128 rushing yards and one touchdown in three games. Meanwhile, the Packers give up an average of 227 yards to receivers, and have allowed four touchdowns on just 42 receptions. That’s why in DFS for Week 4, I’m not afraid to target Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr., despite their struggles. Beckham especially won’t be popular after another meltdown on national TV, which makes him a great contrarian option this week. As for the Jets, their fearsome front seven has forced teams to go the air, where Darrelle Revis and company have been roasted for 797 yards on just 66 catches by receivers. Antonio Brown is expensive, but don’t be afraid of a matchup with Revis. Sammie Coates makes a great sleeper play this week, too. The Titans have been bad and trailing, so they’re seeing a lot of rushing attempts against them. But they aren’t allowing RBs into the end zone, with just one TD allowed on the ground. Look to that burnable secondary for fantasy goodness.
AP PHOTO
Fantasy owners should stick with Odell Beckham Jr. even tough he has yet to score a touchdown this season
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
DFS: Four weeks in, what do we know? And how can we use it?
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
By
ARTHUR ARKUSH Jim Caldwell benched Golden Tate following a critical gaffe in Detroit’s third consecutive defeat, 17-14, to the Bears, begging the question: Is rookie GM Bob Quinn considering making changes of his own? Caldwell’s Lions are a combined 1-7 in Weeks 1-4 from 2015-16, and repeat mistakes including penalties and defensive breakdowns, not to mention Matthew Stafford showing signs of his former turnover-prone self with four interceptions during Detroit’s skid, mean Caldwell’s job security is once again a hot topic After playing three of four to begin the season away from Ford Field, the Lions return home for three straight, beginning Sunday versus Philadelphia, which is coming off a Week 4 bye. Unlike the Lions, who desperately miss their two best defenders, DE Ezekiel Ansah and WLB DeAndre Levy, the Eagles are healthy – though they could be without RT Lane Johnson, whose 10-game PED ban is slated to begin this week. Jim Schwartz brings his No. 1 scoring ‘D’ to his old stomping grounds, where the Lions’ offense, held out of the end zone in nine of the past 12 quarters, is searching for answers. Schwartz’s aggressive upfield ‘D’ won’t be new to Stafford, but reigning Defensive Player of the Month Fletcher Cox will be a nuisance for C Travis Swanson and
After dominating the Giants in all three phases, the NFC’s last undefeated club extended its regular-season win streak to an NFL-best seven games, yielding an average of just 14.6 points per along the way. Indeed, it’s all clicking for Mike Zimmer’s club, from former firstround flameout Cordarrelle Patterson’s evolving role on offense and special teams to the masterful efficiency of Sam Bradford to a defense every bit as dominant as Super groups in Denver and Seattle. Not only are the Vikings the new team to beat in the NFC, Mike Zimmer has positioned himself as the favorite for Coach of the Year honors at the quarter-pole. Zimmer’s staff has put on a coaching exhibition while adjusting on the fly with Bradford and after injuries to Adrian Peterson and LT Matt Kalil. The run game appears diversified, the O-line is ascending and the defense, well, it’s been dominant for a while now and only getting better. If we’re Zimmer, the one current concern we’d have is PK Blair Walsh, who’s far too erratic to again be allowed to spoil his team’s special roll. Houston has eight giveaways (six by Brock Osweiler), more than all but two teams – the NFL’s most disappointing pair, Arizona and Carolina. The Vikings are up to 11 takeaways and a ridiculous plus-10 turnover differential. Can Osweiler find his dangerous perimeter threats, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, while remaining out of harm’s way, i.e., the NFL’s best CB
Fresh off the bye, Green Bay continues with the second of a four-game stretch at Lambeau Field, where the offense found its groove against Detroit two weeks ago. Their performance after the layoff against a much stouter Giants defense, albeit with a banged-up secondary and lack of opportunism, should provide a better measuring stick for the Packers’ offense. Any way it’s measured, Green Bay’s run defense has been nothing short of sensational, permitting a paltry 128 yards through three games – the fewest by a Packers club over such a span since at least 1933. When Mike McCarthy welcomes old friend Ben McAdoo, who served on McCarthy’s staff from 2006-13, back to Green Bay for the first time since leaving for New York, he’ll be familiar with McAdoo’s West Coast scheme. But it’s hard to simulate seeing Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard, making their Lambeau Field debuts. Speaking of OBJ, he’ll likely line up across from Sam Shields, whose absence the past two games with a concussion has stressed Damarious Randall and the secondary. Shields’ fabulous recovery speed is critical against a home run hitter like Beckham, who’s too easily unraveled when big and aggressive corners Shields and Randall bang him around early and often.
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hargers owner Dean Spanos has the weight of the entire city of San Diego and Chargers fans everywhere on his shoulders at the moment and, The Way We Hear It, no good answers as to what to do about it. Unlike Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who couldn’t wait to ditch his fans and the city of St. Louis to put down roots in Los Angeles, Spanos has done everything humanly possible to be loyal to the fans of San Diego and avoid joining Kroenke as his tenant in Tinseltown. On Nov. 8, San Diegans will go to the polls to vote yay or nay on Proposition C to provide $1.2 billion in taxpayer dollars to build a new multi-use stadium in downtown San Diego and expanded convention facilities. With the odds stacked heavily against the vote succeeding, Spanos has spent over $5 million of his family’s money campaigning for votes and expects to spend still significantly more in the coming weeks. The problem at the moment, however, is his football team is breaking its fans’ hearts almost every Sunday. It reached a new low in Week 4 with two fumbles inside its own 31-yard line in the final seven minutes to blow a 13-point lead for the Chargers third loss in four weeks. All three losses this year have come after the Chargers led with just five minutes remaining in the game. Reviewing these games, you’ll find that head coach Mike McCoy hasn’t really made any tough calls or controversial decisions to contribute to these meltdowns, but as the head coach, he is still responsible for everything his players do. McCoy was actually thought to be a dead man walking at the end of last season after going 4-12 with nine of the 12 losses by one score or less, but Spanos decided the glass was still half full on the heels of a 9-7 2014 slate and instead extended McCoy’s contract. The problem now is this year’s troubles appear to be part of a trend. McCoy’s Chargers are 3-12 in games decided by eight points or less, have lost 15 of their past 20 and appear to be looking for new ways to lose. There is growing pressure on Spanos to make a change, but according to our sources he has no idea how Chargers fans will react if he does and what impact it might have on the stadium vote. Then there is the issue of general manager Tom Telesco, who was hired as one of the youngest GMs in the league following the 2012 season and made McCoy his first hire as head coach. Telesco also received a contract extension following the 2015 season and is still a respected talent evaluator around the NFL, even if his last two drafts have yielded little production to date. Part of the Chargers’ problem is, after a preseason-long holdout, No. 3 overall draft choice Joey
HEAT ON IN THE ‘BIG APPLE?’
N
AP PHOTO
Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy has seen his team lose three times after holding the lead with just five minutes left in the game
Bosa really hasn’t contributed yet and they’ve lost their two best offensive players other than quarterback Philip Rivers – wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Danny Whitehead – for the season to injuries. There is not enough young talent in the pipeline to replace them. Should Spanos stick with McCoy and he gets the Chargers turned and winning over the next five weeks leading up to the vote, it could have a very positive impact. Of course, a coaching change that would result in a winning streak could also really help encourage voters to support the new stadium. But should Spanos either stick with McCoy or make a change and the Chargers continue to lose, his dream of keeping the Chargers in San Diego could be toast. Normally a coach on the bubble can have some impact on his own future, but McCoy’s chances of keeping his job are most likely being driven by circumstances well beyond his control, and Spanos and his son John, who oversees the football operations, are left to hope their current predicament is not a no-win situation.
FL observers would have to be deaf, dumb and blind to have missed the cold shoulder Tom Coughlin offered Giants owner John Mara after his firing following the 2015 season. The reasons why are starting to leak out of the Giants’ front office. Coughlin has been around too long, is too smart and has been too successful to not have known he was on the chopping block and that his firing – we know, it was reported as a mutual separation – was justified and perhaps even necessary. Following 7-9, 6-10 and 6-10 seasons from 2013 on, and with his 70th birthday approaching this past August, Coughlin knew his time had come and it was justified. What we’re hearing now, however, is that at least part of what Coughlin was miffed about was his having to take the fall while general manager Jerry Reese, who was facing his own free agency and drafting slumps, not only wasn’t taking the fall with him, but was sticking around to name his replacement. Dating back to the 2012 draft, the only significant additions the Giants added were Justin Pugh and Johnathan Hankins in 2013, Odell Beckham Jerry Reese Jr. and Weston Richburg in 2014 and Ereck Flowers, Landon Collins and Bobby Hart in 2015. With no help from 2012 and just seven meaningful contributors from 2013 through 2015, and OBJ the only star power, it’s easy to see why it was getting harder and harder for Coughlin to win. Reese’s free agency classes from 2012 through 2015 were even less productive, yielding Martellus Bennett for one season in 2012 and Cullen Jenkins in 2013 before Reese went wild and brought in 25 free agents in 2014 with the best the group had to offer turning out to be Rashad Jennings, Jon Beason, Geoff Schwartz and Josh Brown. In 2015, we’re sure Reese and Coughlin hoped for a lot more from Marshall Newhouse, Dwayne Harris, Jonathan Casillas, Kenrick Ellis, J.T. Thomas, George Selvie and Shane Vereen than what they’ve gotten. Is it fair Coughlin got the axe while Reese was brought back to break the bank in free agency this year on players like Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins? We’re hearing Coughlin didn’t think so, and we’re also hearing now that Reese’s retention came with a caveat: “Fix this mess fast or you’re next.” Reese’s 2016 draft class got solid early grades for value, and certainly Vernon, Harrison and Jenkins all possess star power, but that doesn’t have any impact on Reese’s job security in New York. The Way We Hear It, if the Giants aren’t at the very least serious playoff contenders this season, they could be in the market for a new GM.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
Chargers’ McCoy between a rock and a hard place
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
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What will the Bears do at RB when Langford returns? NATE KEVINATKINS FISHBAIN fans. Remember, they’ve seen Martellus Bennett, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte leave in the last two years, watched Kevin White miss last season and Alshon Jeffery struggle with injury. When was the last time they had reason to be excited about a skill position position player? So Sunday was important from a football and PR perspective. Is there a controversy? In John Fox’s perfect world, the Bears are playing a wave of running backs anyway. So does it matter? Fishbain: We live in a fantasy football world, Patrick, of course it matters! Fans want to know who is going to get the most fantasy points each week. What will be interesting
PATRICK FINLEY FINLEY PATRICK
is when Langford comes back – and I’ll throw Ka’Deem Carey in this conversation, too – what Dowell Loggains does in goal-line and short-yardage situations. Howard has the build, Carey has that forward push with all his runs and Langford has the experience. So, to pander to our loyal fantasy football players, it matters who will get the most touches and the ones that can lead to touchdowns. How would you divvy out those carries? Finley: Well, I wouldn’t stop giving Howard the ball until he gives me a reason to. Do you realize, Kevin, that he had the Bears’ first 100-yard rushing game since the season opener last year? Or that his 111 yards
almost doubled the Bears’ single-game high this year, which was Langford’s 57? Blame the opponent all you want, but those are numbers I like. If Howard’s still hot in a month, I think Langford makes for a perfect third-down back – he’s their best pass blocker and, despite last year’s struggles, can catch. We all know that the running back is only part of the equation, though; if the offensive line has truly gelled, would the Bears be running a risk of messing up a good thing by swapping in a new starting rusher? Fishbain: With upcoming games against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, Howard will have more opportunities to
win the hearts of Bears fans and coaches as the lead back. Green Bay will be the ultimate test, the way they’re stopping the run, but Fox has always talked about sticking with the ‘hot hand.’ If Howard has two more good games, I don’t think they would want to change things up. Remember, this is a staff that had no issue benching players last season. I do think we need to remember that even if Howard is the No. 1 back, we won’t see him getting 93 percent of the snaps when Langford returns, right? Finley: I’d hope not. It would be unfair to Howard to put him in that situation – and bad news for the Bears, too. Not everyone is Matt Forte. The good news is, they don’t have to be. Coach John Fox and GM Ryan Pace have spent the past two years swearing that they didn’t need a do-everything back, and actually preferred a stable of players with specific strengths. Until those guys get healthy, though, they’re certainly permitted to get excited about Howard, one of the season’s few bright spots.
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n this week’s edition of ‘Take 2,’ Patrick Finley of the Chicago SunTimes and Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly go back and forth on the Bears’ situation at running back after Jordan Howard’s big game. Fishbain: Do we have a running back controversy on our hands? Jordan Howard won the hearts of Bears Nation with his 111 yards in the first win of the season, Patrick, and he certainly looked pretty darn good as a pure runner. But before we completely forget about Jeremy Langford, who is still expected to be out for a month or so with his ankle injury, let’s remember that Howard did that against a bad run defense behind an offensive line that has continued to improve. Still, though, isn’t this setting up a good problem for the Bears to have, a team that wants to run it a ton with multiple backs? Finley: Yes: Bingo, Kevin. Howard was both good and exciting, and that’s a fascinating combination for Bears
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016