Lions vs Bears SINCE 1967
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
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Cutler injury, offensive struggles spotlight future at QB
I
n just two seasons, Phil Emery and Marc Trestman took a 10-6 Lovie Smith-coached Bears team and turned it into one of the laughingstocks of the NFL. As punishment, Emery and Trestman were banished and Ryan Pace and John Fox were brought in to rebuild the franchise. Considering the damage done by their predecessors and the near total barren cupboards left behind, it was always going to be, at best, a three-year job. Nobody panicked when the new guys opened their inaugural campaign with a competitive loss to Green Bay, a whipping at home from Arizona and then an embarrassment on the road at Seattle far more disturbing than what happened to the Bears last week in Dallas. Have you all forgotten that the Bears came home in Week Four to knock off the Oakland Raiders, a comparable group then to the Lions team that visits this Sunday, won again the following week at Kansas City and then finished 4-7 but lost only one by more than six points the rest of the way and five of the losses were by four points or less
it on Jay’ chatter started by a team with less talent again all over town. than this year’s group? This is what rebuildTo any knowledgeable observer, the choice being feels like, folks. Let’s take a breath, maybe tween a healthy Cutler have a beer or two and and Hoyer is no choice settle down and let these at all, but things really kids grow. got hinky when Fox was There is one noticeasked in his postmortem of the Cowboys debacle able difference, however, if it was a given Cutler this year. would get his job back. Last year, Pace and Fox went underground “I don’t think there are for almost six weeks in any givens, and that’s no HUB ARKUSH evaluation of Jay Cutler harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com indictment on anybody,” before deciding he’d be he said. “This is a day-to@Hub_Arkush their guy. day, week-to-week, whatWhile Cutler has always been a have-you-done-for-me-lately league flashpoint here in Chicago, Jimmy and so we’re just trying to get the best Clausen was so ungodly awful in relief 11 guys out there, regardless of the poin Seattle that Bears fans couldn’t wait sition, to where we can play a full 60 to get Cutler back for Oakland and he minutes and get a victory.” went on to have his best year as a Bear If the topic were any other Bear, the with Adam Gase. answer would have been deemed unThis year, Gase is gone, the offense remarkable, but because it’s Cutler ... has been particularly slow out of the There was another tidbit that went gate under Dowell Loggains and Brian somewhat unnoticed, but culled out it Hoyer wasn’t bad in Dallas. He wasn’t stirs the pot a bit more. good, but he did compete, so the ‘blame During the Sunday night broadcast
in Dallas, Cris Collinsworth talked about Hoyer’s mop-up duty versus the Eagles, saying, “He brought a little energy to that game the other night. “That pace carried through into practice. His quick release is going to help Chicago’s offensive line. More than anything, the Bears need a leader, and they hope it’s Brian Hoyer.” We, the local media, aren’t allowed to watch practice, but the national TV guys get special access. Was Collinsworth just speculating, or were his lips moving and Fox’s words coming out? To blame Cutler for what appears to be Loggains’ failures to date would only hurt the team’s ability to compete now if Cutler is to be the scapegoat. Two weeks ago, nobody was even talking about Cutler anymore, but circumstances change quickly on major construction projects and Jay long ago used up his last get-out-of-jail-free card. It would be completely foolish to suggest Hoyer is the future for the Bears at quarterback. But it could very well be we now have the first hard evidence that Fox wants to pour a new foundation at quarterback starting next March.
Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.
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Can Jamie Collins play QB? He does everything else
Luck and Hilton wouldn’t let Colts drop to 0-3
Showing championship caliber ‘D’ and mental toughness
Could easily be 3-0 but emotional losses taxing
Siemian the reason for victory, not roadblock, Sunday
New offensive coach, same old defensive issues
That’s more like it for Aaron Rodgers and offense
For one week at least, Rex’s decision paid off
Credit rookie QB, but also rookie coach, his great staff
Credit Cousins for delivering with distractions swirling
QBs should stop throwing Marcus Peters’ way Le’Veon Bell back at right time after dud in Philly ‘D’ great as always but Russell Wilson injuries mounting Can get three straight in division but must protect Cam Mini bye much needed for Watt, Miller and morale Credit ‘D’ for being stout while offense finds footing Run game showed a pulse in tough home opener OBJ’s outbursts a detriment to himself, team in bad loss
20. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 21. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 22. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23. BUFFALO BILLS 24. WASHINGTON 25. MIAMI DOLPHINS 26. TENNESSEE TITANS 27. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 28. DETROIT LIONS 29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 30. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 31. CHICAGO BEARS 32. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Deserved to lose against worst team in football
In his debut, rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett led the Patriots over the Texans last Thursday
14. ARIZONA CARDINALS 15. OAKLAND RAIDERS 16. NEW YORK JETS 17. ATLANTA FALCONS 18. DALLAS COWBOYS 19. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Carson Palmer’s playoff hangover a cause for concern Defense played better but stopping the run still a problem Usually good enough to get you beat, Fitz awful in K.C. 45 points with little help from Julio bodes well for offense 30 carries, 140 yards — that’s the Zeke we remember Big offensive plays great but need to get Gurley going
Strong run game means little if Mariota doesn’t progress Call to bullpen for Kap could come this week Stafford-to-Jones is real but so are defensive deficiencies High-priced ‘D’ finally delivers but Bortles couldn’t ‘D’ predictably bad but Brees’ struggles surprising 0-3 with much bigger tests for shorthanded ‘D’ coming What other positions can Terrelle Pryor play?
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 3. DENVER BRONCOS 4. GREEN BAY PACKERS 5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 6. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 7. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9. CAROLINA PANTHERS 10. HOUSTON TEXANS 11. BALTIMORE RAVENS 12. CINCINNATI BENGALS 13. NEW YORK GIANTS
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
yards per carry) and that’s where the Bears are giving up a league-worst 6.7 yards a carry and will be without their middle-of-the-‘D’ pluggers. By
EDGE u LIONS
KEVIN FISHBAIN
Bears rushing offense vs Lions run defense Against a mediocre Cowboys defense, the Bears did get a 36-yard run from Jordan Howard and a 23-yard run from Jeremy Langford. However, take out those two carries and the duo combined for 17 yards on 10 carries. Langford is battling an ankle sprain, which opens the door for Howard to be the lead back on Sunday vs. Detroit. That’s good news for those who have been clamoring for more of the rookie, and the offensive line is going to continue to improve. The Lions let Eddie Lacy rumble for 103 yards on 17 carries last week (6.1-yard average) and are last in the league, allowing 5.1 yards a tote. Detroit struggles most against runs off right tackle and up the middle, where the Bears should thrive. This a matchup the Bears have to win if they want to get their first victory. As obvious as that sounds, it wasn’t the game plan in September. It’s time to feature Howard and take advantage of a weak Lions front, especially if Detroit is without linebacker DeAndre Levy. It’s not a huge advantage for the Bears, but enough for Sunday.
EDGE u BEARS
Bears passing offense vs Lions pass defense Aaron Rodgers got back in the groove last week, tossing four touchdowns against the Lions. The secondary in Detroit isn’t deep, but corner Darius Slay and ball-hawking safety Glover Quin are quality players. The Bears’ air attack will get a big boost if Lions edge rusher Ziggy Ansah remains out with a quad injury. Detroit is not flush with edge rushers, but Ansah is a game-wrecker. The Bears did have some bright spots in the passing game in Dallas, from an O-line that kept Brian Hoyer from being sacked, and Zach Miller putting up
Lions passing offense vs Bears pass defense
Lions pass rusher Ziggy Ansah has missed time this season with a high ankle sprain.
AP PHOTO
big numbers. Kevin White also had a sensational catch, maybe gaining some confidence. Opposing quarterbacks have a 120.2 rating against Detroit this season, tossing 10 TDs to only one pick. This is a defense that Brian Hoyer (or Jay Cutler, if he recovers) should make plays against, even more so if Alshon Jeffery is healthier. Like the run game, this matchup is dictated more by what Detroit can’t do on ‘D’ compared to what the Bears can do on offense, because we haven’t seen it consistently yet.
EDGE u BEARS
Lions rushing offense vs Bears run defense The absences of Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan were apparent Sunday night, when Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 140 yards on 30 carries and Dak Prescott added 36 yards. Will Sutton can’t plug the middle like Goldman can and the Jonathan Anderson-Nick Kwiatkoski-Christian Jones combination doesn’t make up for a loss like Trevathan. This week is a much different foe, as the Lions don’t have the blue-chip offensive line that Dallas featured and Theo Riddick is not Elliott. Riddick has been effective as a receiver against the Bears of late. Rookie Dwayne Washington has the ability to break off long runs and will be a factor, too. This is a weakness vs. weakness matchup, but the Lions have been best running the ball up the middle (5.3
The Bears probably sent Calvin Johnson some nice retirement gifts, but they won’t get a reprieve against the Lions’ pass catchers this week. Marvin Jones is off to a hot start to his Lions career with a league-leading 408 receiving yards. Golden Tate has been quiet, but the Bears know full well what he can do in the middle of the field. The ageless Anquan Boldin has two touchdown catches already and Eric Ebron is an effective tight end. Matthew Stafford is completing 67.5 percent of his passes through three games, well above his career average. The Bears are coming off losses to back-to-back rookie quarterbacks and Stafford is well acquainted with playing at Soldier Field. The pass rush did nothing to rattle Dak Prescott last week and the corners too often gave Cowboys receivers more than enough room to make plays. The Lions have more than enough playmakers and the signal-caller to attack a Bears ‘D’, especially if the pass rush stays grounded.
EDGE u LIONS
Sunday’s overall edge
Nearly a year ago Sunday, the Bears beat the Raiders at home to notch their first win of the season. That’s the last time they won at Soldier Field. Can they end both losing skids against the Lions? Detroit has the league’s second-worst third-down defense and worst red-zone ‘D’, but the Bears haven’t been able to show much of anything on offense to sustain drives and score points with the league’s lowest time of possession. The Bears should have ‘sense of urgency’ on their side, but we thought that last week and they went down 24-3 at halftime. The Lions have done more on offense to have the ultimate leg up.
EDGE u LIONS
7:30 p.m. Thursday, CBS
One of these teams will be .500, the other staring at a huge division deficit. Picture Burfict for Cincinnati.
COLTS AT JAGUARS 8:30 a.m. Sunday, CBS (LONDON)
Gus Bradley might need a season-saver similar to Colts’ Week Three victory to avoid being left across pond.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
The Falcons might know the recipe to beat Cam but they lack the ingredients; how will Carolina respond to 1-2?
RAIDERS AT RAVENS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Road-weary Raiders get defensive boon in Nashville; Baltimore riding ‘D’ to 3-0 start but needs more offense.
TITANS AT TEXANS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Two young QBs, both enduring growing pains, but Mariota trying to do too much while Osweiler might need to do more.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Rex says he’s coming after TBD Patriots QB, so this should go well.
SEAHAWKS AT JETS In Week 3 against the Packers, Marvin Jones had 205 yards receiving and two touchdowns
AP PHOTO
12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Fortunately for Gang Green, Wilson’s knee, not Fitzpatrick’s six INTs, will garner most discussion this week.
BROWNS AT WASHINGTON 12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS
No RG3 homecoming, but we’re all excited to see what Terrelle Pryor and Kirk Cousins do for encores.
BRONCOS AT BUCCANEERS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS
If Case Keenum led four TD drives against Bucs, what will Trevor Siemian, after his four-TD road win, put up?
RAMS AT CARDINALS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX
The division-leading Rams visit the reigning division champs, who can’t afford too many more duds from Palmer.
SAINTS AT CHARGERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Bolts could easily be 3-0 after another squandered lead late; Saints close to wasting another prime Brees year.
COWBOYS AT 49ERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Dallas hoping it landed on next Aikman in Prescott, but no one will mistake Gabbert for Young in SF.
CHIEFS AT STEELERS 7:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC
Le’Veon Bell suspension over; is Jamaal Charles done rehabbing? Round One between Brown and Peters.
GIANTS AT VIKINGS 6:10 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Jordan Howard came off the bench against the Cowboys and averaged 5.0 yards per carry
AP PHOTO
Two teams that firmly believe defense still wins titles; Big Blue begins two-game road primetime stint in NFC North.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
DOLPHINS AT BENGALS
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
(+3) Hub
Kevin
Arthur
Bob
Adam
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Pro Football Weekly
Daily Herald
Chicago Sun-Times
ARKUSH
FISHBAIN
ARKUSH
LEGERE
JAHNS
Bears 27, Lions 26
Bears 23, Lions 22
LIONS 30, BEARS 21
Bears 27, Lions 24
Lions 24, Bears 20
How do I justify this one? It feels just like the Raiders coming to town exactly one year ago.
The Lions’ ‘D’ is bad enough, can the Bears play desperate enough to finally get a win?
The offense plays its best game, but just too much Stafford and Jones for undermanned ‘D.’
Two bad teams with injury concerns, so take the home team, I guess.
It doesn’t matter who plays QB, the Bears are too banged up and bewildered. Their tough ride continues.
SEASON RECORD: 2-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-2
SEASON RECORD: 2-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-3
SEASON RECORD: 2-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-1-1
SEASON RECORD: 2-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-1
SEASON RECORD: 1-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-2-1
Jon
Kristin
Eric
Dan
Kyle
Northwest Herald
Kendall County Record
Daily Chronicle
Pro Football Weekly
Kankakee Daily Journal
STYF
SHARP
Bears 24, Lions 21
Lions 32, Bears 16
OLSON Bears 24, Lions 20
McCALEB
NABORS
Lions 26, Bears 21
Lions 34, Bears 17
Just when you think they can’t win, they’ll do it. This can’t get worse. John Fox gets win No. 2 at Soldier Field.
This Bears defense is going to make Matthew Stafford look even better than he did vs Green Bay.
At home against a beatable opponent, look for the Bears to finally catch a couple breaks.
Until the Bears prove it on the field, there’s no reason to think they’ll win, or cover.
The Bears’ lackluster pass rush better find a way to pressure Matthew Stafford.
SEASON RECORD: 3-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-0
SEASON RECORD: 2-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-1
SEASON RECORD: 1-2 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-3
SEASON RECORD: 2-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 2-1
SEASON RECORD: 3-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 3-0
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
Cutler shouldn’t rush back even though Bears are in desperation mode
J
ohn Fox is full of coach-isms, clichés and clever sayings. But every now and then the Bears coach, who protects players’ injuries as if they were nuclear codes, gives you a little something that might be significant. It happened earlier this week when Fox was asked about quarterback Jay Cutler and whether he’ll be the starter once he returns from his sprained right throwing thumb. “I don’t think there are any givens,” Fox said. Then he said more. But those were the seven most important words of his first press conference this week. And it was a peculiar choice of words. It was not so much a message to Cutler, but a challenge. These are desperate times. The Bears need wins, and every player needs to perform better, regardless of position, contract or status. All the goodwill that Cutler built up last season when he was the Bears’ best player only goes so far. The Bears need results today. Cutler, though, shouldn’t take Fox’s words as motivation to rush his return. He’s already proven to be a quick
man took the ball away healer. His Bears teamfrom a red-hot Josh Mcmates also don’t doubt his toughness regardless of Cown and gave it back to what all the misinformed Cutler, who returned eartalking heads say on naly from a groin injury. It’s a predicament that tional networks. Cutler’s might force Cutler to rush toughness is his most enhis return. But he needs dearing quality. to be mindful of what he’s But again, it’s in doing. Fox said he doesn’t Culter’s best interests to want any setbacks, either, be patient with his recovbut his medical staff did ery. No one is saying that clear Cutler to return from Brian Hoyer is a better a hamstring ailment after quarterback than him. ADAM JAHNS he missed one game at the But the one distinct adajahns@ww.com @ajahns same point last season. vantage Hoyer has right Cutler is smart. He now is that he’s healthy. knows the guaranteed portion of his Hoyer can firmly grip the football and contract is up after this season. He throw at full strength. Cutler couldn’t should know that he’s playing for more do that against the Eagles. than this year. Fox may like him, but But Fox’s comments do open the he’s not bound to him. door for the idea of sticking with HoyJohn Fernandez, a hand, wrist and er if plays well. Fox was pleased with elbow orthopedic surgeon at Rush UniHoyer’s performance against the Cowboys, even though he produced his big versity Medical Center, told the Chicastats while playing catch-up. go Sun-Times last week that thumb ligWith his own record to worry about, aments are “super, super important” Fox likely won’t do what former coach for quarterbacks. Marc Trestman did (or was forced to “This is the ‘Tommy John’ of the do) during the 2013 season, when Trestfootball quarterback, basically,” Fer-
nandez said. “You do not want this injury. ... For one, it puts you out. Two, it’s very unpredictable in terms of how it’s going to recover.” An early return could turn into a lengthy absence. Cutler is one bad sack or bad-luck break where his hand strikes an opponent’s helmet away from serious trouble.
•••
Rookie running back Jordan Howard’s production against the Cowboys was deceiving. He had long runs of 36 and 14 yards, but finished with 45 yards on nine carries. So let’s do the math. That means Howard’s other seven carries went for minus-five yards. He’s a talented young runner, but consistency matters.
•••
The Bears’ offensive line desperately needed a good game together, and they had one against the Cowboys, who didn’t sack Hoyer. In fact, press-box statisticians had the Cowboys down for one quarterback hit. The Cowboys lack playmakers on defense, but Hoyer did attempt 49 passes. The question now is whether the line can build off that performance against the Lions.
OPINION
Rookies giving the Bears positives during 0-3 start
W
ith the Bears’ playoff hopes already farfetched and the Cubs poised for a historic postseason run, why pay attention to an 0-3 Bears team that appears will be hard-pressed to match last year’s 6-10 mark? Because, if you look through the cloud of disappointment that currently shrouds John Fox’s team, there are young players who will be the foundation when the rebuilding job is complete. Clearly that construction job has a long way to go. But not all the developments in another winless September have been negative, even though it seems like a lock that the Bears will miss the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 years. No team since the 1998 Buffalo Bills has started a season 0-3 and made it to the postseason. Only two other teams – the 1995 Detroit Lions and the 1992 San Diego Chargers – have managed that resurrection since the current, 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990. But enough about this year; we’re looking ahead here. Kevin White was much more in-
volved in the offense Kwiatkoski.” vs. the Cowboys than in The 6-foot-2, the first two weeks and 242-pound Kwiatkoski, the first of the appears to be playing Bears’ three fourthcloser to his 4.35 timed round picks this year, speed. The 2015 seventh flashed power and overall draft pick had run-stopping ability a game-high 14 targets vs. the Cowboys in and season-bests of 6 his first start. On one catches and 62 yards blitz, he bull-rushed Sunday night. He had the Cowboys’ La’el 7 catches for 70 yards Collins and knocked in the first two games the 6-foot-5, 322-pound combined. BOB LeGERE guard into the backWhite, who missed rlegere@dailyherald.com field and then tramhis rookie season fol@BobLeGere lowing shin surgery, pled a running back couldn’t hold a deep before chasing quarterback Dak Prescott. ball that glanced off his outstretched Whitehair, this year’s sechands. But he atoned when he came ond-round draft pick, is already down with a 32-yard jump ball with showing improvement after three a one-handed grab while reaching starts at center, where he had nevaround Cowboys cornerback Morris er started a game until the season Claiborne. “They’re figuring it out on the opener. First-round pick Leonard fly, and I think Kevin had his best Floyd has also started all three game,” John Fox said. “All young games and is one of the leading tacklers but has just started to flash his players, the more they do it, the pass-rush potential with half a sack. better they’re going to get. We’ve “Cody did a great job with Brian got a lot of young ones out there. (Hoyer) setting the ‘Mike’ (linebackWhether you’re talking about Cody er) and setting the protections,” Whitehair or Kevin White or Nick
three-time Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long said after the loss to the Cowboys. “I thought we did a better job in pass pro(tection), but we’ve got to do a better job on the run game.” Jordan Howard, who could turn out to be a fifth-round steal, could help in that regard. The euphoria over his 36-yard romp on his first carry Sunday night dissipated as his other 8 carries produced a total of 9 yards. Nevertheless, Howard is a big, strong back who can make tacklers miss with subtle moves, and he could be the future at the position. Fox said he was not surprised by Howard’s performance. “It’s the same thing I have seen,” the coach said. “A young guy, learning how to figure out our system and play better. I think he’s done well, and he’ll continue to improve.” Howard has earned more opportunities on merit, but he should also get more touches out of necessity. Starter Jeremy Langford left Sunday night’s game with a sprained ankle and did not return. Backup Ka’Deem Carey didn’t make the trip to Texas because of a hamstring injury. The future begins now.
9 PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
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ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |
Week 4 matchups to exploit, avoid By J.C.
MATCHUPS TO AVOID
TALON
Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com
H
Tennessee Titans
opefully you did not take our advice and start Marcus Mariota (17 for 33, 214 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) last week. And we were as surprised as anyone by the clunkers delivered by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Perhaps the return of Le’Veon Bell will get the Steelers back on track. We saved a little face by recommending you pick up Jordan Howard. He could pay modest dividends this week against a soft Detroit run defense. Don’t be surprised if he keeps the starting job – albeit for a very bad Bears team – even after Jeremy Langford returns. On to Week 4 …
OPPONENT: AT HOUSTON TEXANS, SUNDAY, NOON Tennessee managed just 10 points at home against a league-worst Raiders defense. It’s hard to imagine the Titans having much success on the road against a significantly better Texans squad. The Titans have a solid run game, but are 24th in passing, averaging just 229 yards per game through the air. That ranking is likely to drop this week in what should be a tough day for Mariota. Houston’s defense is ranked No. 1 versus the pass. At 40.5, this game is tied with Jets/Seahawks for the lowest over/under of the week. SOLID PLAY: DeMarco Murray WORTH A LOOK: Delanie Walker* LAST RESORT: Derrick Henry, Jace Amaro (if no Walker), Titans D/ST STAY AWAY: Mariota, Tajae Sharpe, Rishard Matthews, Ryan Succop
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT Cincinnati Bengals
OPPONENT: VS DOLPHINS, THURSDAY, 7:25 This is an excellent matchup for Jeremy Hill, and, perhaps, Giovani Bernard. Miami’s defense is 31st in rushing yards allowed. The Dolphins are a more respectable 18th versus the pass, but this is still a plus matchup for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Conversely, this is not a good week to start your Dolphins. The Bengals have played a brutal schedule thus far and have been in every game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had to go to overtime to beat the Browns last week for their first win. Tyler Eifert is practicing again, but he is unlikely to play on a short week. If he does play, beware of a “Gronk-line” situation from last Thursday (limited snaps, no targets). MUST START: Hill, Green SOLID PLAY: Dalton, Mike Nugent, Bengals D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Bernard LAST RESORT: Tyler Boyd, Brandon LaFell
Washington
OPPONENT: VS BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON Just when it looked like Washington’s season was destined to become a dumpster fire, the team rallies for a big win in the Big Apple. Banking on Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense carries risk for fantasy owners, but if you are going to roll the dice, this is the week to do it. Kirk and the boys are unlikely to face a better matchup than Cleveland at home. A problem for fantasy owners: Washington is distributing the ball to four receivers. Jordan Reed (16/190/0), Jamison Crowder (16/175/2), DeSean Jackson (14/238/1) and Pierre Garcon (13/135/0) are all capable of having big games. On the other hand, they are all (except maybe Reed) capable of being shut out. Matt Jones left last Sunday’s game to be evaluated for a concussion, but was able to return. MUST START: Reed SOLID PLAY: Cousins, Jackson*, Dustin Hopkins WORTH A LOOK: Jones, Crowder LAST RESORT: Garcon STAY AWAY: Washington D/ST
Carolina Panthers
OPPONENT: AT FALCONS, SUNDAY, NOON Atlanta is giving up 433 yards per game – only New Orleans and Oakland have yielded more. Their 30.3 points allowed per game is fifth-worst in the league. The Panthers are seventh in offensive
AP PHOTO
Panthers QB Cam Newton should put up big numbers against a poor Falcons defense
yards, generating 389.3 yards per game … and that’s after being limited to 306 yards against a tough Minnesota defense. Carolina will have plenty of motivation to play well; they’re trailing Atlanta by one game in the NFC South. With Jonathan Stewart still sidelined, Cameron Artis-Payne should get the bulk of the RB touches, but expect most of the offense to run through Cam Newton. MUST START: Newton, Greg Olsen, Graham Gano SOLID PLAY: Artis-Payne, Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Fozzy Whittaker LAST RESORT: Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn
Denver Broncos
OPPONENT: AT BUCCANEERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 L.A. had not scored a touchdown prior to its Week Three visit to Tampa. The Rams offense found the end zone four times in a 37-32 victory over the Bucs. Trevor Siemian is coming off a 312-yard, four-TD performance against a Cincy defense that is stingier than the unit he’ll face this week. Tampa’s defense is better against the run (14th) than the pass (20th), but we still like C.J. Anderson in this game. MUST START: Anderson, Broncos D/ST SOLID PLAY: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon McManus LAST RESORT: Devontae Booker, Virgil Green*
ALSO CONSIDER Detroit Lions
OPPONENT: AT CHICAGO BEARS, SUNDAY, NOON The fourth-ranked Lions offense squares off against a decimated Bears defense, currently ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed.
San Diego Chargers
OPPONENT: VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, 4:25 San Diego should move the ball up and down the field in this game. New Orleans’ defense is right where it’s been for three consecutive seasons: 31st in yards allowed. Be sure to also take a good look at your Saints. The over/under on this game is around 53 – by far the biggest number of the week.
Oakland Raiders
OPPONENT: AT BALTIMORE RAVENS, SUNDAY, NOON Something will have to give when the Raiders and their second-ranked offense (producing 436 yards per game) travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens’ second-ranked defense (yielding just 254 yards per game). After watching Arizona struggle in Buffalo last week, we’re betting the long trip/early start tips the scales in Baltimore’s favor. SOLID PLAY: Latavius Murray WORTH A LOOK: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree LAST RESORT: Derek Carr, DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, Clive Walford, Sebastian Janikowski STAY AWAY: Raiders D/ST
New York Giants
OPPONENT: AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS, MONDAY, 7:30 The Vikings have faced the Packers and Panthers in consecutive weeks and are still ranked sixth in fewest yards allowed. They are even tougher on points – only Seattle and Philadelphia have allowed fewer than the Vikes’ 13.3 per game. New York is ranked sixth in total offense and should be able to muster some yards in the passing game. The Giants face a strong pass rush, however. Minnesota leads the NFL with 15 sacks. If the Giants fall behind early, it could be a long night for Eli Manning. MUST START: Odell Beckham Jr. WORTH A LOOK: Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Giants D/ST LAST RESORT: Orleans Darkwa STAY AWAY: Will Tye, Larry Donnell, Josh Brown
ALSO BEWARE Chicago Bears
OPPONENT: AT VS DETROIT LIONS, SUNDAY, NOON Right now, the Bears are a reflection of their coach: a rambling, incoherent mess. Jordan Howard could, however, find reasonable success on the ground.
Los Angeles Rams
OPPONENT: AT ARIZONA CARDINALS, SUNDAY, 3:25 Despite scoring 37 points in Tampa, the Rams remain dead last in offense. They’ll run into an angry team in Arizona this week.
* — Check injury status
By JOHN
SAHLY
A
jsahly@shawmedia.com
sk most DFS players where they begin their week of research and the answer is uniform: Las Vegas. There’s a reason Vegas sports books continue to thrive and profit. They’re good at forecasting the over/ unders, the favorites, the underdogs and the point spreads. So when you see a game with a 50-point over/ under total, it’s a good idea to roster a multitude of players from that game. If you see a game with a 40-point over/under total, it’s usually a good idea to stay away from most players in those games. After all, fewer actual points = less potential for fantasy points. It seems simple, and there are plenty of DFS players who follow Vegas lines and choose their rosters as such. Some players go as deep as the individual player propositions put out on Sunday mornings by the sports books. There’s a school of thought that Vegas is overvalued in the DFS world, that we put too much stock into it, and just go for the 50-point games when a game with a 47-point over/under could be just as good. Fantasy Labs co-founder Jonathan Bales addressed that point in a PFW fantasy football podcast a month ago, and it’s hard to disagree with him.
AP PHOTOS
Carson Palmer was sacked five times and was intercepted four times Sunday against the Bills But line movement is another matter, and that is something we should pay attention to for big swings. And a perfect example occurred this past weekend. If you listened to Wednesday’s PFW game-by-
game fantasy football podcast, you know I was all over the Arizona Cardinals against the Buffalo Bills. I thought it was a potential chance to be sneaky in DFS tournaments as well, considering the Bills were coming off the mini-bye of a Thursday night game, and it was a west coast team traveling to the east coast for the early start, a spot which traditionally hurts west coast teams. When I said all of that, the Cardinals were sixpoint favorites, a nice sweet spot where plenty of points are expected but it’s not such a blowout that you risk offensive studs being benched. By Saturday, the Cardinals were down to threepoint favorites, despite multiple reports saying that as much as 80 percent of the bets taken were on the Cardinals to cover. Quite simply, it was textbook reverse line movement, where the line moves in the opposite direction of the public betting. In other words, some sharp Vegas gamblers who know way more than you or I were betting heavily on the Bills and the six points. Seeing this, I didn’t end up with one Cardinal on my roster this past week. The result? Bills 33, Cardinals 18. The only fantasy player worth rostering from the Cardinals was matchup (and apparently Vegas) proof David Johnson, who scored twice. Carson Palmer had four interceptions and no touchdown passes. Vegas knows. And if it doesn’t, it learns quick and acts even quicker. Don’t forget to take a second look at the lines before you hit submit on Sunday.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
DFS: Where Vegas can help us when setting our lineup
ARTHUR ARKUSH
OVERVIEW
Sunday, the Vikings’ road triumph over Carolina, and New York’s collapse at home against Washington, covered both ends of the emotional gamut. Mike Zimmer, in a dead heat with New England’s Bill Belichick for Coach of the Year, led his Vikings into Charlotte, where the Panthers last lost in Week 11 of 2014, and oversaw a beating on Cam Newton that would make Wade Phillips’ Broncos proud. Indeed, Cam Newton’s kryptonite continues to be unrelenting pressure from the edges and up the middle, this time courtesy of Everson Griffen, Tom Johnson and Brian Robison instead of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Derek Wolfe. The Vikings also received another sharp Sam Bradford showing against a great defense, plus a punt return touchdown from Marcus Sherels, resulting in a complete team win to culminate another week of adversity that just as easily could’ve quickly went south along with the charter
flight to Carolina. Southbound is the best way to describe Big Blue’s team discipline in a staggering self-destruction versus Washington that featured penalties, picks and Odell Beckham Jr. getting punked on the sideline by a stationary kicking net.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Beckham missed last year’s meeting due to a suspension making this his first bout with Zimmer’s feisty CBs. After dominating Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess Sunday, they’ll try and curtail one of the league’s most dangerous, and volatile, playmakers. The return of Xavier Rhodes, inactive in Weeks 1-2 with a knee injury, and growth of Trae Waynes mean the rich have gotten richer in Minnesota.
BY THE NUMBERS
Minnesota rung up eight sacks and 12 QB hits on Newton a week ago, eerily similar to Denver’s seven-sack, 13hit super slaughtering in February.
QB: Aaron Rodgers snapped his 14-game, sub-100.0 passer rating slide with a deadly efficient gem versus Detroit. Grade: B RB: Eddie Lacy is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and, while he doesn’t look slimmer, his production has been impressive; he just needs more work. Grade: B+ WR: Jordy Nelson has frequented the end zone and the explosiveness is returning. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have been more dependable. Grade: B TE: Jared Cook has yet to add a downfield element and is now injured. Richard Rodgers and Justin Perillo have made the most of their chances. Grade: C+ OL: Given the abrupt release of Josh Sitton, it’s adjusted admirably with two strong outings and a dud against a Vikings ‘D’ that makes most feeble. Grade: B+ DL: Hard to ask for more from Mike Daniels, Letroy Guion and the NFL’s No. 1 run ‘D,’ which gets reinforce-
ments with Mike Pennel returning in Week Five. Grade: A ILB: Ted Thompson knew something we didn’t in waiting until Round Four to find Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez. Grade: A OLB: Nick Perry has starred for this unit, whose strong depth was tested Sunday with injuries to Clay Matthews and Datone Jones. Grade: A CB: Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins have missed Sam Shields, sidelined in Weeks 2-3 after a fabulous showing in Jacksonville. Grade: B S: When healthy, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde might be NFL’s best trio. Grade: B+ ST: New P Jacob Schum has been average, Mason Crosby has been automatic and Ty Montgomery’s heady play illustrates improved coaching. Grade: BCOACHES: Dom Capers has been masterful, mixing in youngsters with his stalwarts. Mike McCarthy’s adaptability must continue for an offense not yet out of the woods. Grade: B+
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
By
O
ver the past two weeks the Buffalo Bills have fallen to 0-2 at home with a sloppy mess of a loss to the Jets on a Thursday night, fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman the next day, bounced back 10 days later with a huge and impressive upset of the Arizona Cardinals and then immediately seen head coach Rex Ryan begin taunting and poking the biggest, baddest bear on the block as they ready for this Sunday’s trip to New England. Ryan may not be the best coach in the NFL, but he never fails to entertain. That said, how much longer the show goes on in Buffalo remains to be seen. As badly as the Bills needed that win over the Cardinals, it really didn’t answer many questions and Ryan is a long way from out of the woods. Bills fans would like to believe the firing of Roman and installation of Anthony Lynn in his place was all the Bills needed, but that would be naïve at best. In the Jets game that triggered Roman’s firing, the Bills put up 31 points, although seven came on a defensive score, while the defense overseen by coordinator Dennis Thurman, assistant head coach defense and twin brother of Rex, Rob Ryan and Rex himself gave up 497 yards and 37 points. In 2015, Roman’s first season running the Bills’ offense, the team was average at best but the 23.7 points per game, 360.9 yards per game and 5.68 yards per play the offense managed was the best of any of the seven Jets and Bills teams Ryan had been the head coach of. Lynn was Ryan’s running backs and assistant head coach with the Jets and followed him to Buffalo to take the same job. He is now in his first offensive coordinator job and the pressure is squarely on Ryan for him to succeed. Lynn is Ryan’s fifth offensive coordinator in eight years as a head coach following Brian Schottenheimer, Tony Sparano, Marty Mornhinweg and Roman, suggesting hiring one is not Ryan’s strong suit. Adding to the intrigue are the circumstances surrounding Roman’s firing. It has been reported in the Buffalo area it was a move from the top, pushed for by relatively new owners Terry and Kim Pegula, who
AP PHOTOS
Paul DePodesta’s future may be in doubt with the Browns after passing on Carson Wentz in this year’s Draft
AP PHOTO
Anthony Lynn replaced Greg Roman as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator purchased the Bills just two years ago and made Ryan their first head coach at the end of the 2014 season. The Way We Hear It, that was not the case, as it was Rex’s doing all along and he merely sought approval from the Pegulas who had made Roman one of the highest paid offensive coordinators in the league and will now continue to pay him not to work for them. Our sources are telling us that the Pegulas are taking a page from their experience purchasing the Buffalo Sabres in 2011, settling in, and trying to learn the NFL and then moving slowly. It is highly unlikely they told their head coach to fire his coordinator. The perception has been that with Ryan still due $22 million for the remainder of this season and the next three after, the Pegulas felt stuck with Ryan, so looked to find improvement elsewhere. Our sources say that after paying roughly $1.7 billion in cash to buy the Bills, ownership’s last concern is over saving $22 million if they decide
Ryan isn’t the guy they hoped. Ryan is still very much on the coaching bubble in Buffalo and the wins better keep on coming if he hopes to be there after this season.
NERVES BEGINNING TO FRAY IN CLEVELAND AS BROWNS KEEP LOSING?
Cleveland Browns first-year head coach Hue Jackson has received somewhere between solid and rave reviews for the way he is handling his young Browns team so far, as the club has gone from losing big to just blowing games they might have won. But at the end of the day, 0-3 is 0-3, and some of the moves the Browns have made to get there have insiders scratching their heads, and we’re hearing could be beginning to strain the relationship between Jackson and front-office honchos Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown. With DePodesta being a baseball sabermetrics guy and Brown a salary cap guru with no NFL talent evaluation experience between them, it’s
unclear who is making final calls in the war room on draft day. It is also unclear whose idea it was to let Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, Tashaun Gipson, Donte Whitner and Karlos Dansby all walk via free agency, releases which yielded little in return – Cleveland could receive compensatory draft picks next spring for Mack, Schwartz, Benjamin and Gipson – and with no proven talent waiting in the wings to replace them. And that’s just where the story starts. The Way We Hear It, Cleveland dealt the second overall pick in the draft this year in part to load up more picks, but also as much because they didn’t believe Carson Wentz could be their quarterback of the future. Our sources are telling us the Browns were reasonably sure the Rams were taking Jared Goff with the first overall pick before trading their pick to Philadelphia, but the Browns’ “talent people” didn’t see Wentz as an eventual top-20 passer in the NFL. Is it possible the Browns are so smart that they see a better prospect than Wentz coming in 2017 and can grab him and still have plenty of extra picks? Jackson has been around too long to buy that. We’re hearing nothing is imminent in Cleveland, but don’t be surprised if there is a minor coup of sorts after the season and before the draft that leaves Jackson with a clear hold on personnel power in Cleveland and DePodesta or/and Brown in different positions, in Cleveland or perhaps even elsewhere.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
Bills battles to keep jobs just beginning?
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
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When will the Bears’ front seven, a supposed strength, start generating pressure? NATE KEVINATKINS FISHBAIN ly not stopping the run — the Cowboys carried the ball 41 times for 199 yards. There was an expectation when the season began that the front seven would be the Bears’ biggest strength, a tempo-setter to pace the defense – and the team. Injuries or not, it simply hasn’t been that way this season. Willie Young told us that he could feel the burden of Houston not being in the Sunday rotation; is the problem as simple as that? I sense that it’s not. Fishbain: Young and some of the other Bears defenders also commented on how quickly Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz got rid of the football, but that can’t be an excuse, can
PATRICK FINLEY FINLEY PATRICK
it? All quarterbacks are going to try to throw it early, it’s on the Bears’ defense to get there faster. We know by now that Vic Fangio is not one for blitzing – we’ve seen a couple from the corner position that haven’t been too effective. I think the onus has to fall on Young and Leonard Floyd, but it certainly would be helpful if one of the defensive linemen got pressure from the interior. Akiem Hicks, Mitch Unrein and Jonathan Bullard each have one QB hit and have combined for zero sacks. Finley: A quarterback gets rid of the ball fast? That’s like a lion saying he would have caught the cheetah if only he’d
slow it down to a nice, easy mosey. I was surprised how little Leonard Floyd rushed the passer Sunday, but he’s also their best coverage linebacker, so it appears the Bears were content to play him there. We knew this already, but the Bears’ line sorely missed Goldman, and will continue to. My question for you, Kevin: if the Bears can’t get pressure the old-fashioned way, will Vic Fangio dial up a few blitzes to try to manufacture a little sizzle? Or is that just exposing the weaker part of the defense — the backfield — to further trouble? Fishbain: Ineffective pass rushes bring out the best lion metaphors! Through the first
two games, I would’ve said, ‘Sure, Vic, I know it’s not your style, but dial it up!’ because the corners had been playing well, but did you see how wide open the Cowboys’ receivers were on Sunday night? Still, with an 0-3 record, aren’t we in the, ‘Why not?’ part of the season? I expected to see quite the sense of urgency in Dallas, then didn’t. Maybe we’ll see it at home vs. Detroit and a QB who isn’t mobile and prone to turnovers? Finley: Noodle this one, Fishbain: Matthew Stafford is the most proven quarterback the Bears have faced thus far. He’s third in the league with 985 passing yards, sixth among starters with a passer rating of 105 and tied for third with seven passing touchdowns. One more thing to ponder, Kevin: you and I are in our fourth season covering the team everyday. We’ve never seen them beat the Lions. Not once. The way this is headed, Kevin, I’m thinking that on Sunday, the Lions will be the, um, lions – and the Bears will be the prey.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
I
n this week’s edition of ‘Take 2,’ Patrick Finley of the Chicago SunTimes and Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly discuss a Bears pass rush that was ineffective against the Cowboys and needs to get going to help turn things around. Fishbain: There was a big goose egg in the box score for the Bears under sacks in Sunday night’s loss to the Cowboys, Patrick (though to be fair, the Bears’ offensive line didn’t allow a sack, either). John Fox will tell us that we can’t simply judge based on sacks – OK, the Bears had one quarterback hit. One! And they only had one tackle behind the line of scrimmage. I know this is a front seven that was missing Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Lamarr Houston (and Pernell McPhee), so am I being too hard on the group for not putting more pressure on a rookie quarterback? Finley: Because if they can’t rush the passer, then what are they doing? They’re certain-
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
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