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2016 will be a year to test Bears fans’ patience While football is the ultimate team sport, games are most often won by the team with the most individuals winning their matchups. Or as Bill Belichick would say, “Just do your job.” That becomes problematic for the 2016 Chicago Bears because this team is trying to rebuild with young talent. It will not always have its best players on the field and the occasional winnable game will get away in exchange for developing talent that will make the team more competitive in the future. This was not a factor in the opener against the Texans. Houston was just the better team. It would have taken a unique performance from the Bears to win that game. But with Philadelphia coming to town this Monday night for the Bears home opener, the dynamic is different. These two teams match up fairly well talent-wise, making it a winnable game for both. Will the Bears go all out to win the game or will they continue to prioritize developing younger players at the risk of losing a game?
ton’s snap totals were The best example reversed. of this is the Bears’ top Kevin White’s story pick, Leonard Floyd. is similar. His ceiling He is a dynamic athlete may be higher than with a chance to be a any other player on great player. But he the team, but he is well is currently inexperienced, immature behind any reasonable physically and badly expectation of where in need of a year in the the seventh overall weight room. pick in the draft should A quick look at be at the beginning of the tape of the Texans his second year in the game or any of the preleague. HUB ARKUSH harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com season action will tell Of course, not @Hub_Arkush you that Willie Young, playing his rookie year Lamarr Houston and hurt his development, Sam Acho are all more complete and but if in fact he ran the wrong route probably better NFL players right on Jay Cutler’s lone interception in now. Houston, that’s really something that Yet in the Texans game, Floyd was shouldn’t still be happening. on the field for 60 snaps while Young In that Texans game, White was on had 48, Houston just 27, and Acho 15. the field for 56 snaps, Alshon Jeffery Clearly, Floyd needs reps to get bet54, Eddie Royal 37, Deonte Thompson ter, but it is more than fair to suggest 2, Josh Bellamy 0. Cameron Meredith the Bears would have a better chance was inactive. of winning now if Floyd’s and HousThe Bears prefer to use Royal in
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three-receiver sets. The same is probably true for Thompson, but Bellamy and Meredith should be interchangeable pieces with White. It would be foolish to bench White, but sharing some of his snaps with Bellamy and Meredith just might give the Bears a better chance of winning now. It is a dilemma for Ryan Pace and John Fox that can cut both ways. Jeremy Langford is still a young talent trying to define his ceiling at running back and he shows promise. We have seen flashes from Jordan Howard, suggesting his ceiling could even be higher. Which talent gets game reps and what will that do to the development of the one who doesn’t? 2016 will be a year to test Bears fans’ patience. It is easy to know what you’re looking at when the only measurement is wins and losses, but a much tougher experience when you’re trying to rebuild something that doesn’t come with a clear blueprint for success.
C’mon, W in Arizona with no Brady, Gronk or Nink?
They paid what for Norman?
What a difference a Nelson makes
Hmmm, who saw Rams beating coming?
Better than we thought, still questions at QB
Not awful, not very good, OTs need some help
Newton can’t take that beating 16 times
Dalton’s a winner, can they keep him upright? If that’s all A.P.’s got left, they have a problem
Saved the W, how did it get that bad in 1st place? That’s the Jadeveon Clowney we thought he was Kids need to develop, let’s check back Week 14 Fitz is fine, David Johnson great, but Palmer? Del Rio wins big ones of the week award Is the defense back in the Giants?
20. DALLAS COWBOYS 21. WASHINGTON 22. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 23. CHICAGO BEARS 24. MIAMI DOLPHINS 25. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 26. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27. ATLANTA FALCONS 28. BUFFALO BILLS 29. LOS ANGELES RAMS 30. TENNESSEE TITANS 31. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 32. CLEVELAND BROWNS Mediocre on their best day with that lineup
Fully loaded without Bell and Green
They showed up ready, give Gase’s guys that
With their win in Arizona, Jimmy Garoppolo and the Patriots take over the top spot in our rankings
14. N.Y. JETS 15. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 16. DETROIT LIONS 17. BALTIMORE RAVENS 18. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 19. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES L, but how many sacks when Richardson’s back? Move over guys, Jameis Winston is here
So Stafford likes spreading the ball around
Nice, but won’t get depleted Bills every week Can see them coming but not there yet
Looks like Wentz is ready to us
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 3. GREEN BAY PACKERS 4. DENVER BRONCOS 5. CAROLINA PANTHERS 6. CINCINNATI BENGALS 7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 8. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 9. HOUSTON TEXANS 10. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 11. ARIZONA CARDINALS 12. OAKLAND RAIDERS 13. N.Y. GIANTS
Same old story, plenty of ‘O’ but just no ‘D’
Speaking of no ‘D,’ what are Colts thinking?
Need a week or two here, how good are Bucs?
Suspicions confirmed, this is a bad football team
And Jared Goff was where? You can buy players but you can’t buy wins
Allen injury a shame, no excuse for meltdown You expected something else?
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
AT
By
and will want to set up more behind-the-line stops for Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. The key will be limiting Mathews on first and second down, a struggle against Miller in the first half last week.
KEVIN FISHBAIN
EDGE u EVEN
Bears rushing offense vs Eagles run defense The Bears would have liked to do a better job controlling the time of possession with the ground game against Houston, but the game didn’t go that way. When they got Jeremy Langford in space on some stretch running plays, they started to have success, but then the offense would stall. Ka’Deem Carey got only one carry and Jordan Howard didn’t play, while Langford averaged 3.4 yards a pop. They’ll try to get back on track against Jim Schwartz’s Eagles defense that allowed Isaiah Crowell to rush for 5.2 yards a carry last week on 12 touches. Philadelphia has some new linebackers, led by Nigel Bradham, a strong, downhill run defender. Fletcher Cox is one of the best three-techniques in the game and can stop the run as well as get after the passer. The Bears might be able to get some success bouncing it outside to test Philadelphia on the edge, which will keep Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin from being hellbent on getting after Jay Cutler. We’ll remain in wait-and-see mode with Langford, giving a slight advantage to Philly.
EDGE u EAGLES
Bears passing offense vs Eagles pass defense On two drives vs. the Texans, Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery were unstoppable. Eddie Royal also had a few clutch catches. That was in the first half, though. When the Texans rolled their safeties over to Jeffery, Cutler couldn’t connect with other receivers, including Kevin White, who had a tough NFL debut. This week, they’ll face Philadelphia’s group of veteran corners Nolan Carroll and Ron Brooks, both of whom have the speed to stay with Bears receivers, but not necessarily the size to compete with any jump balls against Jeffery and White. The Eagles can gain an advantage here up front, as
Eagles passing offense vs Bears pass defense
AP PHOTO
Jerrell Freeman had 17 tackles in Week One
the Bears allowed five sacks last week. Cox sparks the interior pass rush and will have great battles with Josh Sitton or Kyle Long. Barwin and Graham are effective off the edge, and all three had a sack last week. If the Bears lose in the trenches, it won’t matter if the receivers get open. The assumption here is the O-line is shored up enough with an extra day to work to give Cutler the time needed to make more plays.
EDGE u BEARS
Eagles rushing offense vs Bears run defense Lamar Miller gashed the Bears in the first half to the tune of 83 yards, but they held him to 1.7 yards per carry after halftime, thanks in part to stout play from Eddie Goldman and Jerrell Freeman. Philadelphia has a better O-line than Houston’s, with former Texans guard Brandon Brooks, impressive tackles Lane Johnson and Jason Peters and center Jason Kelce. Ryan Mathews had 77 yards on 22 carries, and they’ll want to take some pressure off Wentz. Philadelphia uses zone-read concepts to run the football, and got some explosive runs from Kenjon Barner. Mathews isn’t as good as the Bears’ Week 1 opposing back, Miller, but could have more holes behind a more impressive offensive line. The Bears can build off how they finished the game with their run ‘D’
Wentz put together a nice performance in his debut, completing 22-of-37 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns and no picks, good for a 101.0 rating. He connected with Jordan Matthews seven times for 114 yards, so look for Tracy Porter to try to lock Matthews down. Wentz dropped two beautiful passes for his touchdowns, but also had some rookie-like errant throws. The Eagles have Brent Celek, but will be without their more effective tight end, Zach Ertz, who has a rib injury. Darren Sproles could cause problems for the linebackers in the passing game. The Bears’ pass rush got going after halftime against Brock Osweiler, but didn’t get home enough. The aforementioned bookends at tackle, Johnson and Peters, will be tough for Willie Young and Leonard Floyd to get past consistently, so the Bears may have to generate pressure up the middle. Wentz is a rookie in his first road game in prime time, playing against Vic Fangio’s defense. He also put up solid numbers against a mediocre Browns ‘D’ last week.
EDGE u BEARS
Sunday’s overall edge There’s a lot going for the Bears in terms of intangibles, outside the X’s and O’s. It’s their home opener, and there should be a sense of urgency to win at Soldier Field after last year’s dismal home record of 1-7. Getting a rookie quarterback as an opponent this early in the season is a gift, and John Fox has been around long enough to know how much an 0-2 start can set a team back. The Bears showed flashes on both sides of the ball in Houston against the AFC South champs and face a foe this week closer to their level.
EDGE u BEARS
THIS WEEK IN THE NFL Darrelle Revis vs. Sammy Watkins doesn’t have its usual luster, but that won’t curtail Rex Ryan’s bluster.
49ERS AT PANTHERS Noon Sunday, FOX
Something tells us an angry Carolina team with extra rest isn’t what the well-traveled but not well-rested Niners need.
RAVENS AT BROWNS Noon Sunday, CBS
After a hard-fought Week 1 win, the Ravens might be longing for RG3 after what Josh McCown did to them last time.
TITANS AT LIONS Noon Sunday, CBS
The battle of coaches whose interim tags were removed by rookie GMs; Mularkey needs Mariota on track fast.
CHIEFS AT TEXANS Noon Sunday, CBS
Bill O’Brien can’t wait for this playoff rematch with a newlook offense; Chiefs’ furious comeback sign of things to come?
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS Noon Sunday, CBS
What did Adam Gase do to deserve Miami’s start? Jimmy Garoppolo looks like he’s been paying attention in class.
SAINTS AT GIANTS Noon Sunday, FOX
Still shell-shocked by Raiders, Saints head to New York, where ‘D’ improved and coverage plan for OBJ unclear.
In his NFL debut, Eagles QB Carson Wentz threw two touchdown passes against the Browns
AP PHOTO
BENGALS AT STEELERS Noon Sunday, CBS
It’s more likely we’ll see a lot points scored than any pleasantries being exchanged between Joey Porter and Adam Jones.
COWBOYS AT WASHINGTON Noon Sunday, FOX
Dak Prescott looks pretty good but will Dez Bryant pick it up against Josh Norman assuming he sees him?
BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX
Fans of vertical offense rejoice; Bucs hope Dirk Koetter can be the next Bruce Arians.
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX
An ankle injury puts Russell Wilson’s streak of 74 consecutive starts to begin career in jeopardy.
COLTS AT BRONCOS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Luck couldn’t have done any more, yet 0-1 Colts head to Denver, where franchise QBs aren’t safe.
FALCONS AT RAIDERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Jack Del Rio is playing with house money; pressure already rising on Dan Quinn’s Falcons and banged-up WR corps.
JAGUARS AT CHARGERS 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS
It’s hard to say which of these desperate teams can least afford an 0-2 start.
PACKERS AT VIKINGS 7:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC
WR Alshon Jeffery caught four passes for 105 yards against the Texans on Sunday
AP PHOTO
Vikes cut ribbon on U.S. Bank Stadium against team they cut ahead of for NFC North superiority.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
JETS AT BILLS
7:30 p.m. Thursday, NBC
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
(-3) Hub
Kevin
Arthur
Bob
Adam
Pro Football Weekly
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ARKUSH
FISHBAIN
ARKUSH
LEGERE
JAHNS
Bears 24, Eagles 20
Bears 27, Eagles 26
Bears 23, Eagles 20
Bears 21, Eagles 17
Bears 23, Eagles 16
Fangio, Bears ‘D’ break out blitz, Carson Wentz wilts. Cutler and Jeffery put on a Monday night show.
The Bears can’t afford to start 0-2 and lose again at home. Vic Fangio’s schemes vs. rookie QB makes the difference.
Philly lacks size/speed outside. Alshon should feast, Fangio has added flexibility to fluster rookie QB.
Philly rookie QB Carson Wentz looked great last week, but Bears defense is better than Browns – I think.
Carson Wentz’s debut was ideal. It was at home vs. the lowly Browns. Vic Fangio’s defense is a tougher test.
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-1
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
SEASON RECORD: 0-1 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-1
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Eric
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Northwest Herald
Kendall County Record
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NABORS
Eagles 24, Bears 17
Bears 23, Eagles 20
Bears 26, Eagles 24
Bears 20, Eagles 16
Eagles 27, Bears 20
Still not buying this team is ready to win football games.
A rookie QB in the Monday night spotlight, against a QB who struggles in prime time. I’ll go with home field advantage.
The Bears will build on a decent road performance; Eagles already banged up.
Vic Fangio, Bears ‘D’ don’t let rookie QB Carson Wentz march up and down field as Browns did.
The Bears need to show a much better pass rush before you can feel confident in a win.
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 0-1
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
SEASON RECORD: 1-0 SEASON VS. SPREAD: 1-0
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S
o much for that wave of running backs the Bears promised to have. Their running back-by-committee started and ended Sunday with Jeremy Langford in Houston. And he wasn’t happy with his performance. “I left a lot of yards out there on the table,” said Langford, who had 57 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries in the Bears’ 23-14 loss to the Texans. “I could have made a lot more out of the carries that I did have.” Coach John Fox felt so, too. He said the offensive Jeremy Langford line “blocked up some runs pretty well” against the Texans. “That’s not an easy defense to run against,” Fox said. “But there were some yards there – yards after contact.” Because of that, it will be interesting to see how the carries play out Monday night against the Eagles at Soldier Field. Langford can turn his speed into power, but Ka’Deem Carey and Jordan Howard provide
It’s Langford’s backfield, for now, and he can do more with it against the Eagles. more physicality from Browns running back the start. Isaiah Crowell ran for The Bears rotated 62 yards and a touchpossessions last year down on 12 carries in between Langford and Week 1 against them. Matt Forte. But that was One more week of after Langford emerged work behind center and earned former Cody Whitehair and offensive coordinator guard Josh Sitton will Adam Gase’s backing. help the backfield, too. Carey and Howard need But will Langford to emerge in Dowell capitalize this time? Loggains’ offense. “Once I get into the Neither player saw a ADAM JAHNS open field, I have to do first-team snap in the ajahns@ww.com a better job of getting preseason. @ajahns those yards after conAgainst the Texans, tact and getting yards Langford was on the on my own,” Langford said. field for 54 of 56 offensive plays. Carey got only two offensive snaps with one carry. Howard was the only Where was Zach’s attack? Receiver active player not to take the field Kevin White’s low output in Houston against the Texans, aside from backdeserves attention, but so does tight up quarterback Brian Hoyer. end Zach Miller’s. Miller made three catches on four There might be more room to run
FIRST NATIONAL
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•••
targets for 14 yards. One of his receptions came on a screen play in the fourth quarter. When the Texans pass rush picked up in the second half, Miller didn’t become a quick option for quarterback Jay Cutler. It’s too early to worry, but the Bears’ offense requires more from Miller, who missed the preseason with a concussion, to function. Miller is the Bears’ best all-around tight end. And he needs to establish himself as an option for Cutler in the early going, especially with White looking as if he’ll need more time to acclimate.
•••
Cornerback Kyle Fuller shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting spot when he returns. It will be in the Bears’ best interests to make him earn it back. Fuller’s uneven play has led to doubts at Halas Hall. His study habits and confidence level also have come into question. Benching Fuller and making him beat out Jacoby Glenn and rookie Deiondre’ Hall might be the final motivation that’s needed to turn the former first-round pick into a trustworthy player.
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OPINION
9
The protection the Bears’ offensive line provided quarterback Jay Cutler in the season-opening, 23-14, loss to the Texans wasn’t very impressive, but there is reason for optimism. Cutler was sacked five times and hit so hard and so often that, after the game, he admitted: “I don’t feel great.� He added: “I’ll bounce back pretty quickly, though.� The Bears are counting on the same type of rebound from an offensive line that had a major shakeup just six days before the opener. Pro Bowler Josh Sitton, the former Packer, started at left guard after signing as a free agent the previous Sunday night. He had just one week to learn the offense and to mesh with his line mates, who included rookie Cody Whitehair. The second-round draft pick from Kansas State ceded his spot to Sitton and was transplanted to center, where he had almost no practice time with the starters before the opening week. “I think he did pretty remarkable,� Bears coach John Fox said of the nineyear veteran Sitton, “especially on the road, silent count, all the things that go
of making the line calls, into playing in an indoor, in addition to the presnoisy stadium on foreign soil. He did an outstandence of Vince Wilfork. The mammoth nose ing job, and he’ll just get tackle had three-time better. He’s everything as defensive player of the advertised.� year J.J. Watt on one Whitehair had his side and 2014 No. 1 overstruggles, including a bungled exchange with all draft pick, Jadeveon Cutler that led to a failed Clowney, on the other. quarterback sneak on “(That’s) a pretty fourth-and-1 at the Textalented front,� Fox said. “They’ve been together, ans’ 31-yard line that left they obviously have points on the field. BOB LeGERE created some havoc over True to form, the dilirlegere@dailyherald.com the last few years. All-ingent Whitehair accepted @BobLeGere all, we got our quarterthe blame. “That’s the type of guy back hit more than we’d he is,� Cutler said. “He’s a team guy. like. We need to clean that up, and I The game means a lot to him.� think we will.� The 6-foot-4, 310-pound Whitehair is As the O-line continues to jell, it certain to benefit down the road from should be better at handling stunts being bookended by Sitton and right that veteran defensive fronts utilize to guard Kyle Long, who have three Pro their advantage, as the Texans demonBowl appearances apiece. strated. But despite being cobbled “It’s great,� Whitehair said. “Josh together at the last minute, the Bears’ brings the experience. He’s a smart front did a better job run-blocking than player, and he’s where he needs to be it would appear from the stats. at all times.� The Bears had 73 yards on 20 The rookie had the extra challenge rushing attempts, a 3.7-yard average.
Starter Jeremy Langford (57 yards on 17 carries, 3.4-yard average) admitted he left some yards on the field, and Fox agreed. “I think we blocked up some runs pretty well,� the coach said. “That’s not an easy defense to run against, but I think there were some yards there, yards after contact that we can get, and I’m sure that’s what (Langford) was referring to.� Of the five sacks the Bears allowed, four came in the second half. That’s when the Texans got more creative with their pass rushes and they grabbed the lead, which forced the Bears into more obvious passing situations. “Those struggles occurred more in the second half,� Fox said, “especially when you get into backyard football, where you’ve got to throw it to catch up. Whenever you get one-dimensional like that, it’s problematic for most anybody.� With more time together, Sitton’s talent and experience and Whitehair’s on-the-job training, the Bears’ O-line expects to do a better job of solving its problems in the future.
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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
Bears O-line expects to mesh with time together
ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |
Don’t overreact after Week 1 fantasy duds By J.C.
TALON
I
Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com
f you are a fantasy football owner, you overreact … it’s what you do. But be careful not to read too much into Week 1. Remember in 2015 the Vikings traveled to San Francisco in Week 1 and got waxed. Minnesota won the NFC North and the 49ers were a train wreck the rest of the way. Owners of Todd Gurley have reason to be concerned – the Rams were bad, almost inconceivably so – but it’s too soon to panic. Likewise for owners of Devonta Freeman, Brandon Marshall, Coby Fleener and Tyrod Taylor. For Browns fans … it’s never too soon to panic. Interesting factoid of Week 1: Only two rushers (DeAngelo Williams, Lamar Miller) gained 100 yards or more. On to Week 2 …
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT New York Giants
OPPONENT: VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, NOON New York opened against a Dallas defense that most observers consider to be mediocre, at best. This week, the G-Men draw a New Orleans defense that is arguably the worst in the NFL. Eli Manning now has a variety of reliable targets, which makes any receiver after Odell Beckham a bit of a hit-or-miss proposition. Still, this is a premier fantasy matchup for the Giants. MUST START: Manning, Beckham SOLID PLAY: Rashad Jennings, Victor Cruz, Josh Brown WORTH A LOOK: Sterling Shepard LAST RESORT: Will Tye, Larry Donnell STAY AWAY: Giants D/ST
Detroit Lions
OPPONENT: VS. TENNESSEE TITANS, SUNDAY, NOON Detroit’s offense looked pretty darn good in Indianapolis, racking up 39 points, 448 yards, and averaging seven yards per play. Of course, the Lions defense gave up 450 yards and 35 points, so Detroit fans might want to hold off on Super Bowl plans, for now anyway. The Lions did a nice job of spreading the ball around with five players getting at least one carry, and eight players catching at least one pass (six Lions had at least three receptions). If that distribution of touches continues, it could limit the value of several Lions. Based on an extremely small sample size, however, Matthew Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron look like good bets to outperform their 2016 draft position. Tennessee’s defense seems to have improved this year, but this remains an above-average matchup for Detroit. SOLID PLAY: Stafford, Abdullah, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Matt Prater WORTH A LOOK: Riddick, Ebron LAST RESORT: Lions D/ST
Arizona Cardinals
OPPONENT: VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 Arizona came up short last week in a hard-fought game against New England. In general, the Cards still look like one of the better teams in the NFC, al-
Todd Gurley is still a solid play this week
AP PHOTO
though Carson Palmer looked shaky at times. David Johnson had a 45-yard run, but gained just 44 yards on his other 15 carries. For about five years in a row, the general consensus has been that Larry Fitzgerald would no longer be the primary receiver in Arizona. Maybe that happens in 2017. Tampa’s defense held Atlanta to just 52 yards rushing in Week 1, but yielded 334 yards in the air. MUST START: Johnson SOLID PLAY: Palmer, Michael Floyd, Chandler Catanzaro WORTH A LOOK: John Brown, Jermaine Gresham, Cardinals D/ST
Oakland Raiders
OPPONENT: VS. ATLANTA FALCONS, SUNDAY, 3:25 The Raiders handed the ball off to five different RBs in Week 1. Most teams don’t even have five backs active in a given week. While this has to concern owners of Latavius Murray, the featured back did get the lion’s share of the carries (14 of 24). Atlanta proved in Week 1 its defense can be exploited, especially through the air. MUST START: Amari Cooper SOLID PLAY: Derek Carr, Murray, Michael Crabtree, Sebastian Janikowski WORTH A LOOK: Clive Walford LAST RESORT: Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Seth Roberts STAY AWAY: Raiders D/ST
ALSO CONSIDER Carolina Panthers
OPPONENT: VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, SUNDAY, NOON The 49ers shut out the anemic Rams, but you can bet the scoreless streak will end here. Cam Newton and the Panthers have had an extra three days to prepare. They will be stinging from their opening-week loss.
New Orleans Saints
OPPONENT: AT NEW YORK GIANTS, SUNDAY, NOON This is trending to be the highest over/under betting line of the week. New York’s defense has improved from last year, but that’s not saying much.
MATCHUPS TO AVOID Buffalo Bills
OPPONENT: VS. NEW YORK JETS, THURSDAY, 7:25 As mentioned at the beginning of this column,
you don’t want to panic after one week. On the other hand, you also don’t want to double down on bad bets. In their opener – against a Ravens defense that no one was confusing with the ’85 Bears – the Bills managed a grand total of 160 yards in total offense. That’s about a quarter’s worth of passing yards for Drew Brees. Sammy Watkins is struggling with a foot injury. He says he’ll play, but he’s unlikely to be anywhere near 100 percent. The Jets secondary looked pretty suspect against the Bengals, but if the Bills play like they did last week, it won’t matter. SOLID PLAY: LeSean McCoy, Watkins* WORTH A LOOK: Robert Woods LAST RESORT: Tyrod Taylor, Charles Clay, Bills D/ST STAY AWAY: Dan Carepenter
Miami Dolphins
OPPONENT: AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, SUNDAY, NOON Miami gave Seattle all it could handle for 59 minutes, but fell just short of victory. The Dolphins can build on that defensive performance, but are going to need to a lot more than 10 points, 11 first downs and 214 yards on offense if they want to compete in this game. The Patriots might not be as stout as Seattle on defense, but they’re better than average. Assuming he has concluded his pouting fit, Jay Ajayi should return this week to back up Arian Foster. SOLID PLAY: Jarvis Landry WORTH A LOOK: Foster LAST RESORT: Ajayi, Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Stills STAY AWAY: Andrew Franks, Dolphins D/ST
Los Angeles Rams
OPPONENT: VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, SUNDAY, 3:05 In the opening week in San Francisco, the Rams managed a grand total of zero points, 185 net offensive yards and had as many penalties (10) as first downs. Hey, if the Rams continue playing like that, management will probably double the length of Jeff Fisher’s proposed contract extension. That’s a snarky way of saying that L.A. is a very poorly run team. Although it would be nearly impossible for the Rams to continue playing as bad as they did Monday night, a date with Seattle doesn’t exactly scream “bounce-back game.” The Seahawks yielded just 214 yards and 10 points in their opener against Miami. SOLID PLAY: Todd Gurley WORTH A LOOK: Rams D/ST LAST RESORT: Tavon Austin STAY AWAY: Case Keenum, Kenny Britt, Lance Kendricks, Greg Zuerlein
ALSO BEWARE
Kansas City Chiefs
OPPONENT: AT HOUSTON TEXANS, SUNDAY, NOON Do you remember Houston’s opening-round playoff loss to Kansas City that ended their 2015 season? The Texans do.
San Francisco 49ers
OPPONENT: AT CAROLINA PANTHERS, SUNDAY, NOON Carlos Hyde is a solid play here, but (in most leagues) we recommend sitting any other Niners this week.
* — Check injury status
By JOHN
E
SAHLY
jsahly@shawmedia.com
arly-season DFS might be my favorite time in fantasy football. We had our preseason projections all sussed out. We thought we knew who the studs were, who was ready to fall flat, and who the big sleepers were. Pricing came out a month early, so we knew the value plays that would open up the opportunity to roster the big-money players. And then, you didn’t roster Willie Snead (9 receptions, 172 yards, 1 TD). Because Michael Thomas was the hot rookie. And Saints coach Sean Payton even said to get Thomas on your fantasy team. Never forget that Payton hates your fantasy team, both season-long and DFS. And then you didn’t roster A.J. Green, either. Even though I told you don’t be worried, even about his Week 1 matchup with Darrelle Revis. Now, we have an entire one week’s worth of data. It’s the very definition of small sample size, and the race to
overreact to that one week has started. The question is, how do you find the correct signal among all of the noise created by one week? This is a question I posed last week to Fantasy Labs’ co-founder Jonathan Bales on the PFW Fantasy Football podcast. He said that in Week 2 and the early part of the season, when we don’t have the pricing inefficiencies created in Week 1 by salaries being released on DFS sites a month early, he typically sees people overreact to Week 1. That creates a higher ownership of moderately valued players. “The first month of the season, we’re going to see ownership on chalk that’s going to be roughly the same as in Week 10, but in Week 10 we have so much more data,” Bales said. “We know so much more about these teams and these players. So I think that the data is still valuable, but you use it in a different way and there’s just way more value in getting away from chalk I think in tournaments.” Bottom line: Pay attention to ownership for the next few weeks. If you’re in a tournament, especially a
large-field tournament, an easy way to get ahead of the field is to make a leverage play against what you believe will be a highly owned player. Here are two such examples for Week 2: Gary Barnidge might be the most popular Week 2 tight end, at least as of the early part of the week. I’m projecting him at about 20 percent ownership this week in tournaments. There are good reasons for this: Barnidge with Josh McCown last year: 600 yards and six touchdowns. Cleveland’s QB this week: Josh McCown. Barnidge vs. Baltimore last year in two games: 15 receptions on 21 targets for 230 yards and a touchdown. Barnidge is just $4,000 on DraftKings and priced as the 11thmost expensive tight end in the main slate. See? Good reasons to play Barnidge, and I’m all over him in my cash games. But in tournaments, I’m looking to leverage against Barnidge and say those targets go elsewhere against an inconsistent Ravens’ secondary that added Eric Weddle – one of the best safeties that can cover a tight
end – and is likely more focused on stopping Barnidge this time. Corey Coleman is just $4,700 and Terrelle Pryor is just $3,500. Boy, Drew Brees looked great against the Raiders, didn’t he? He’s healthy. Brandin Cooks was phenomenal. Willie Snead was great on your bench. And the Giants were bad last year on defense and got to face a rookie QB last week. I’m not saying go out of your way to avoid Brees, but depending on the site you play, Brees is about 4-5 points worse on the road vs. at home. The Giants’ defense looks legitimately better and now doesn’t have to face the best offensive line in football. In the same game, Eli Manning is $600 cheaper on DraftKings, and makes for a nice stack with Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,500) and either Sterling Shepard ($5,200) or Victor Cruz ($4,300) against a Saints defense that just gave up 35 points and looks every bit as awful as last season. Plus, top Saints CB Delvin Breaux is out six weeks. Thinking about ownership and leveraging yourself away from the chalkiest of plays can go a long way, especially this early in the season.
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DFS: We have one week of data, now what?
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
OVERVIEW
Calvin and Barry who? OK. No Lions fan likely said that this week, but they’re feeling pretty smitten about their still-mega attack sans Megatron after an offensive explosion in a Week 1, 39-35 win over the Colts. QB Matthew Stafford and coordinator Jim Bob Cooter picked up where they left off late last season, except they appear to have discovered a run game and offensive line along the way – at least against the hapless Colts defense. Theo Riddick, days after receiving a contract extension, put forth his best effort as a Lion, totaling 108 yards and two touchdowns. Not to be outdone, Ameer Abdullah added 120 scrimmage yards and a score en route to a 448-yard eruption to help the Lions avoid blowing a 21-10 halftime lead. Without his mega crutch, Stafford spread the ball around to eight different targets, including six with at least three receptions while enjoying sound protection
– a luxury he was rarely afforded last season. As for the defense…
MATCHUP TO WATCH
The return of WLB DeAndre Levy galvanized the group, even if it’s not easily apparent after permitting 35 points and 450 total yards. But much of the production came with vintage Andrew Luck in furious comeback mode. Levy and Tahir Whitehead (teamhigh 10 tackles) form a fast and physical second-level tandem, about to be tested by Marcus Mariota and Tennessee’s two-headed monster, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Tennessee’s trio averaged just 2.9 yards on 22 carries in a 25-16 home loss to Minnesota, which turned the game on its own trio – of takeaways – courtesy of Mariota and Murray.
BY THE NUMBERS
Over his past nine games, Stafford is 7-2, having tossed 22 touchdowns to two interceptions, with a passer rating of 112.5.
OVERVIEW
A division title won’t be on the line like in the previous meeting, a 20-13 Vikings’ triumph in Week 17 at Lambeau Field whose highlights were namely of the defensive and special teams variety. Yet a share of first place in the NFC North and plenty of bragging rights are available in the regular-season unveiling of U.S. Bank Stadium. Whether it’ll be Shaun Hill, coming off a workmanlike outing wherein the defense did most of the tough work, or Sam Bradford unveiled by Minnesota remains unclear. “I just think it’s good for sports talk radio,” Mike Zimmer quipped Monday when asked about the impending decision. Three takeaways and a pair of defensive touchdowns were good – vital, actually – for the Vikings in Week 1, when they overcame another lackluster debut from Adrian Peterson
by outscoring the Titans 25-6 after intermission. The Packers sweated out a heart-pounding 27-23 win in swampy Jacksonville, getting a surprisingly clean outing from their retooled O-line in addition to a ho-hum three-touchdown, zero-turnover game from Aaron Rodgers. Defensively, Dom Capers’ group, young and shorthanded up front, limited the Jaguars to just 1.9 yards per carry, or threetenths of a yard better than Peterson last week.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
With Xavier Rhodes’ status up in the air due to a knee injury, the Vikings could again call on 2015 first-round cornerback Trae Waynes, who notched a game-high 10 tackles last week and has the size and speed to stick with Jordy Nelson. Green Bay’s best wideout returned for his first meaningful action since the 2014 playoffs.
Despite showing clear rust early, Nelson caught Rodgers’ first touchdown after – what else? – improvisation from the game’s most artistic quarterback. Ironically, Rodgers scrambled in and out of the pocket largely due to instinct after last season’s frequent O-line breakdowns. He had solid protection more often than not behind a unit featuring a new center (J.C. Tretter) and left guard (Lane Taylor). While Jacksonville’s D-line remains one of potential, the Vikings hang their hats on production. Expect dominant NG Linval Joseph and three-techniques Sharrif Floyd and Tom Johnson to get Rodgers moving out of necessity.
BY THE NUMBERS
Rodgers is 11-5 in his career against the Vikings with a 34:5 TD-to-INT ratio, compared to Hill and Bradford combining for a 2-5 mark with a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
R
umors have been flying for weeks now that significant contract extensions are in store for Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher, and several folks reported they would be done before the Rams’ season opening embarrassment in San Francisco Monday night. The way we hear it, Rams owner Stan Kroenke may very well have been considering extending his two top lieutenants, but that decision was never really final and it was pretty easy to see why Monday night. After all, shouldn’t it take a little more than looking good for HBO’s “Hard Knocks” to justify giving your top football people multi-million dollar deals? Kroenke is among the NFL’s most “buttoned-up” owners, so it’s hard to know exactly what’s on his mind, but according to our sources, the results of Fisher’s and Snead’s labors are pretty plain to see, and they’re as plain to Kroenke as anyone else. In four-plus years with the Rams, Fisher has never made it to .500, winning 7, 7, 6 and 7 games for a 27-37-1 mark. While Fisher did take over a 2-14 football team, four-year rebuilding plans with zero signs of progress are rarely tolerated, and many believe the Rams have had the most talented defense in the league the last two seasons, which yielded a 13-19 mark. For Snead’s part, after also arriving in 2012, he kicked things off with a bang by hiring Fisher, and with Sam Bradford already in place from a No. 1 overall pick, Snead traded the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft to Washington for three first-rounders and a second-rounder. Some thought it was the steal of the century, but the yield in terms of wins has been disappointing. After Fisher’s and Snead’s blockbuster deal that sent Bradford to the Eagles for Nick Foles was a colossal bust, they turned around last spring and gave the Tennessee Titans two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders for the No. 1 overall pick and a fourth- and sixth-rounder. As you all know by now, the Rams chose Jared Goff over Carson Wentz, who went to the Eagles at No. 2 and had a strong debut starting Week 1 of his rookie season and bringing home a win for the Eagles. Goff had a frontrow view – in street clothes – to the stunningly awful opening night per-
Carolina was willing to let him get away in the first place. This is what happens when team owners and executives with no real football experience like Bruce Allen get involved in football decisions. Don’t get us wrong, Norman had a great year in 2015 and is a good cornerback. But he excelled in mostly zone schemes in Carolina that allowed him to freelance and pick spots to make big plays on the ball, as opposed to being asked to lock down a receiver the way a Patrick Peterson does or Darrelle Revis at least used to do. Put another way, Norman has never done what you’d expect a $75 million cornerback to do, and that’s why with a franchise famous for short honeymoons, this one could be a record-setter.
EAGLES GOT MORE THAN WENTZ AND THEIR FIRST-ROUND PICK BACK IN THE BARGAIN
The future is uncertain for Jeff Fisher (left) and Les Snead formance of Case Keenum, who beat Goff out for the starting job. There are many miles to go before we have any idea whether the Rams got it right on Goff. But where Kroenke finds himself right now is with a public relations problem, at best, in Goff and a black hole at the quarterback position, no first- or third-round picks in the 2017 draft, a team that appeared disinterested in the second half in San Francisco, and the coach and GM who engineered the mess looking for expensive new guarantees. For an owner who just spent nearly $3 billion to woo a brand new fan base in an NFL market where the game has failed twice before, how does he sell that to his new followers? What we’re hearing is Kroenke is thinking long and hard about it, and Fisher and Snead may have to get used to being lame ducks needing to do something to earn a change in that status.
WASHINGTON PAID WHAT FOR JOSH NORMAN?
There was a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington after the Steelers took the locals to the woodshed on “Monday Night Football,” mainly over the decision to
Josh Norman
AP PHOTO
AP PHOTO
keep mega-million dollar free agent cornerback Josh Norman on one side of the field and away from Antonio Brown, the NFL’s best receiver. Washington fans screamed loudly and long into the night after Brown put up eight catches for 126 yards and two touchdowns: “Isn’t that what we signed Norman for, to take away the other guys’ top receiver?” Apparently the answer is no, and the way we hear it, it’s not because Washington defensive coordinator Joe Barry is smart enough to know it’s not something Norman ever did in Carolina – it’s something he may not be able to do, period, which is why
Much like it’s way too early to write off Jared Goff in Los Angeles and Josh Norman in Washington, it’s way too early to anoint Carson Wentz as the savior in Philadelphia. But here are two things we’re hearing from the smart folks around the league who should not be ignored. Most scouts we talked to prior to the 2016 NFL Draft liked Goff, Wentz and Paxton Lynch, and the bulk of the conversation about which one to take centered around which would best translate to the NFL game and which one would be ready the quickest. It should have been clear to everyone that was Wentz. Sure, Wentz played FCS competition, but he did it in a pro-style offense in which he was calling plays in the huddle, regularly under center, checking off and making calls and audibles at the line of scrimmage, and constantly reading the field while dropping into the pocket. Goff and Lynch spent almost their entire college careers in the shotgun, end of discussion. Here is a second important note for the Eagles that a top NFL scout pointed out to us: Philadelphia was probably less than thrilled when Bradford initially whined about the drafting of Wentz, and by dealing him when they did, the Eagles unloaded almost the entire $35 million contract they gave him a few months back. That’s $24 million off their 2017 cap that should allow the Eagles to add at least two or even three top free agents, should they choose to. If we were Howie Roseman, we’d be buying lottery tickets over the next couple of months.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
How expensive was 49ers loss for Fisher, Snead?
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Fishbain: In Houston, Alshon Jeffery reminded everyone he’s Alshon Jeffery. And Kevin White reminded everyone he hadn’t played in a meaningful game in nearly two years. Patrick, if a defense watches that game, they’ll roll their coverages to Jeffery, which should open things up for last year’s top pick, someone the Bears haven’t been shy about pumping up all offseason. So where should the concern meter be with White? Is he always going to have rookie hiccups? Finley: You bet defenses are going to worry about Jeffery. And it will be interesting to see how he performs as the center of attention for 16 weeks for the first time in his pro career. Jeffery was good-to-great last year – when he was healthy – but that was the first time he played
How concerned are Bears about Kevin White? NATE KEVINATKINS FISHBAIN without a better receiver on the other side of the field. As for White, it was fair to expect some growing pains – he’d never played an NFL game before. His limited route tree at West Virginia, though, means the learning curve is even steeper. Here’s my three-part question, Kevin, and I think it’s a gigantic one: Why should Jay Cutler trust White? Will he? And what happens if he doesn’t? Fishbain: Oh man, could you imagine not being in Jay’s ‘Trust Tree’? Quite the disparity from the honor of being one of his trusted receivers. Cutler doesn’t have much of a choice but to make it work with White, and he’s
PATRICK FINLEY FINLEY PATRICK
been around the game long enough to know White has raw abilities that need to be honed. White obviously has to take it upon himself to earn that trust and improve his route running to be more precise, but Dowell Loggains also has to draw up plays that put White in position to succeed, right? Will we see some more screens next week, or simple go patterns from White? Or should it not be on Loggains and Cutler to be so careful with a No. 7 pick? Finley: In a perfect world, Loggains and Cutler wouldn’t have to treat him with kid gloves. But in each of the two most relevant NFL games he’s ever played – Sunday and the
third preseason game – White ran a route that scuttled a drive. What choice do they have now? I’d love to see a bubble screen or two against the Eagles. Shoot, how about a fly sweep? An end around? Success will only build on itself, though, so the fastest way to shake his funk is to catch passes. The garbage-time catch against the Texans was a start. Think he can continue that momentum into Monday night? Fishbain: I’m not sure how much of a believer I am in the momentum, but I think there’s something to be said for confidence, and White needs some. Any he received from that garbage-time catch
was probably wiped away after he re-watched the film. Simple screens are a great way to build confidence, allowing White to make some plays in the open field. I think it’s fair to overreact to White’s debut, especially because mostly everything else was somewhat predictable. At least Jeffery looked dominant, and don’t forget about Eddie Royal! Those two can continue to keep the pressure off White. Finley: They can, for sure – Royal looked better Sunday than at any point in his Bears career – but let’s not discount White’s importance. When the Bears traded Martellus Bennett and let Matt Forte walk via free agency, they seemed to be screaming out for an offensive star to take their place. It wasn’t Zach Miller or Jeremy Langford against the Texans; they combined to catch five balls for 20 yards. For the Bears to make the strides they want, White must fill that void, sooner or later. The Bears are hoping for the former.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
In this week’s edition of Take 2, Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times and Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly discuss the Bears’ situation at wide receiver heading into Week Two.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2016
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