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Sleepers and Busts
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PFW ranks the top players overall and by position
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Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones
head of the class wide receivers have replaced backs at the top of the draft Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown
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Is fantasy football the biggest game in town? By the
That fantasy sports and fantasy football in particular are a big part of the sports entertainment landscape in America is an accepted fact, but getting our arms around just how big the market has become is tricky. What we know for sure is – to steal a trending adjective from today’s political lexicon – fantasy football has become ‘Yuge’. The Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) was founded in 1999. It is a collection of companies and individuals in the fantasy sports business and it has become a go-to source for information and data on the industry. The FSTA reports that 56.8 million people played fantasy football in 2015 and projects that number will grow to 57.4 million this season. The FSTA also tells us a lot about who is playing the game and what many of their habits are. For instance, it reports the average age of a fantasy devotee is 38.6 and the audience is more gender-balanced than you might think, with 66 percent being male and 34 percent female. Fantasy folks are likely to be well educated and affluent, with 66 percent of participants owning a col-
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lege degree, 67 percent having a full-time job and 51 percent earning $75,000 a year or more. The FSTA also tells us that players 18 years or older spend on average $556 a year on their fantasy pursuits, and 70 percent pay entry fees to participate in leagues. While fantasy football is not a new pursuit – Pro Football Weekly actually organized and operated its first fantasy football league in 1980 with more than 2,000 participants from across the U.S. – its growth in just the past five years is stunning. The FSTA reports that in 2003,
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there were about 15.2 million people playing fantasy football. By 2009, it had grown to 28.4 million. Over the past six seasons, that number doubled to last year’s 56.8 million. A great deal of that growth has been spurred by the arrival of the daily fantasy industry, led most notably by two companies, DraftKings and FanDuel. Traditional fantasy football is small groups of friends or business associates playing in what amount to house leagues of eight, 10 or 12 people competing weekly against each other for 14 or 15 weeks to make the playoffs, which occur over the last two or three weeks of the NFL regular season – most often competing for prize money generated by annual entry fees. ESPN, CBS Sports and Yahoo! Sports all built significant business units around supplying league management, statistics, analysis and information to these leagues for an annual fee. The DraftKings and FanDuel models established them as open leagues in which thousands of people can play against each other in a number of different formats for a weekly entry fee and with weekly payouts
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totaling in the tens of millions of dollars. While many of those daily fantasy folks are the same people playing season-long games in their own house leagues, many others are new to the sport. That fantasy is good for the NFL is not a debatable point, and it hasn’t exactly hurt the mobile phone business either. Sixty-four percent of fantasy participants say they are watching more live sports because of fantasy, and 61 percent say they read more about the game because of fantasy. The kicker, no pun intended, is that 39 percent of fantasy sports players primarily use a mobile device to participate. Is fantasy football just for fun, or is it gambling without the point spreads? According to the FSTA, only 29 percent of fantasy football players do not wager, and that does not speak to the debate raging in state legislatures around the country over whether the daily games are gambling or games of skill. Call it what you will, fantasy football is clearly here to stay. The next big question is, how big can it be?
By the
NUMB3RS
money spent on fantasy sports in the U.S. and Canada in 2015, according to NBC News.
$60 million Estimated combined entry fees for DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 1 last season, per Eilers research.
389.09
2015 fantasy points scored by standard scoring leader Cam Newton, 45.38 points ahead of No. 2 Tom Brady (343.70). Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times.
Changing of the guard WRs have replaced RBs at the top of most draft boards By ARTHUR ARKUSH Pro Football Weekly writer
Odell Beckham Jr.
AP file photo
sition) – broke down or busted en route to finishing outside the top-10 scorers. Thus, this year’s Pro Football Weekly Fantasy Magazine and our updated rankings included
a seismic shift: just four backs appeared in our top 10 overall rankings, and in Round One of our mock draft. The question, then, is whether it’s an overreaction or over-
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As the NFL continues rapidly morphing into a game its forefathers barely recognize, where quarterbacks don bulletproof vests and specialty running backs outweigh special bellcows, fantasy football is following suit. For fantasy owners, it used to be death, taxes and spending your first two picks on running backs – the anchors of your make-believe squads. 2015 figured to be no different, as many outlets, including this one, had as many as nine backs ranked in the top 12 fantasy football players regardless of position. Owners who stuck to their tried-and-true method and drafted Jamaal Charles or Eddie Lacy or Marshawn Lynch more often saw the death and/ or taxing of their teams, as an inordinate amount of top-10 backs – 80 percent according to ESPN’s ADP (average draft po-
due. And the answer just may be both. History tells us that the first wideouts off the board tend to be safer bets, albeit only marginally, than the first group of running backs selected over the past decade. It’s easy to scan the top 12 scorers at each position in recent years and see more consistent representation – Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown – than their running back counterparts. (Moreover, the three most consistent backs, Adrian Peterson notwithstanding – Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte – are retired, coming off another ACL surgery and having just turned 30 and joined a new team this offseason, respectively.) According to ESPN, more than 51 percent of top-10 scoring wide receivers over the past nine years were among the first 10 wideouts off the board. For running backs, ESPN data
pro football weekly | Thursday, August 25, 2016 •
$26 billion Estimated total amount of
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Jamaal Charles reveal that number falls below 46 percent. Just as NFL decision-makers have struck gold in draft and free-agent bargain bins (David Johnson and DeAngelo Williams in 2015; C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett in ’14; Alfred Morris in ’12), fantasy owners are more likely to do the same in their backfield than their WR corps, even if both remain long shots. As the game continues trending toward valuing quarterbacks, receivers and pass rushers much more than running backs, fullbacks (what’s a fullback?) and runstuffers, it stands to reason this new fantasy landscape should have stay-
AP file photo
ing power. Speaking of staying power, not only are we in the golden era of young wideouts, the position historically suffers from a lot less attrition than backs – just don’t tell that to the owners who drafted Alshon Jeffery and Keenan Allen, or hoped to welcome Jordy Nelson or Kelvin Benjamin onto their rosters, last summer. Remember, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins – 23, 23 and 24, respectively – made grand arrivals to the WR1 party in 2015, but they still looked up at Brown (28), Jones (27) and Marshall (32). As good as Williams (33) was last year, and as good as Frank Gore
Matt Forte (33) can be in 2016, fantasy owners aren’t entrusting backs at 30 or on the cusp like they do receivers of similar age. It’s not that there aren’t a number of insanely talented young running backs in the league, too. Todd Gurley looks like the next Peterson, David Johnson the next Forte and good luck finding a back in a better situation than No. 4 overall pick Ezekiel Elliott. But they each have one or zero seasons of fantasy dominance, whereas Brown, Beckham Jr. and Jones have already stacked epic campaigns, making the receivers more comfortable choices for many. If they’re not for you, that’s OK. A fantasy owner
AP file photo
can have the most dominant wideout trio in the league and it probably won’t matter if they don’t also find consistent production out of the backfield – it’s simply a matter of where they choose to look. Indeed, don’t mistake all of this as us portending the demise of Round One fantasy backs. In addition to Peterson and Le’Veon Bell, we think rising stars like Gurley, Johnson and perhaps Elliott can be solid firstround investments, where, more often than not, the Alpha No. 1 backs are still found. By our count, that’s four or five, and seemingly gone are the days in which seven-to-eight backs in the top 10 was the norm.
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AP file photos
By ARTHUR ARKUSH
Pro Football Weekly writer
Sleepers Robert Griffin III QB / Cleveland Browns
Don’t misinterpret this as a QB1 endorsement. But for someone going undrafted (ADP 225 overall), his immense upside, paired with creative Hue Jackson, who’ll command the former No. 2 pick’s respect and maximize his special athleticism, is fascinating. If you’re buying what Griffin and Terrelle Pryor are selling this preseason, and think Josh Gordon can stay clean, RG3’s resources are far superior to those he finished No. 5 in scoring with in 2012.
Frank Gore RB / Indianapolis Colts
Inconvenient truth: Even amid Indy’s 2015 Dumpster fire, Gore was RB12 overall. Andrew Luck is healthy, his offensive line improved in the draft, and don’t discount Gore’s ability to protect Luck. That should keep him on the field for three downs. ... Gore’s been around the block – a lot – but each trip since ’09 was no worse than RB13 overall. So why are 25 RBs going before him? 30 is the new 50 for RBs … unless they’re Gore.
DeAndre Washington RB / Oakland Raiders
If you draft replaceable Latavius Murray, this is automatic, but even if you don’t, the fifth-rounder from Texas Tech has spent the offseason building intrigue by the Bay. That’s because
Washington, not Murray, is the best fit for the wide-open attack that Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Co. were born to run. A mismatch piece on passing downs, with the guts to run inside where Murray struggles, Washington will get plenty of chances behind Kelechi Osemele and perhaps the AFC’s best O-line.
Marvin Jones WR / Detroit Lions
Detroit might’ve overspent on Jones to replace Megatron, but you won’t have to. Being drafted well behind Golden Tate, Jones might outpace him. Someone must take Calvin Johnson’s 149 targets, and Jones, a red-zone warrior (16 touchdowns in 21 starts) and deep-ball specialist, is that someone. He’s clicked quickly with Matthew Stafford, an erratic thrower used to a big No. 1. Increased tempo on offense, and plenty of passing until the ground game awakens is a great situation for Jones. A WR38 in 2015, Jones’ ADP is somehow now WR39.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Funny thing about this year’s TEs: we like several who’ve been in this sleeper category before, including Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen and, yes, Seferian-Jenkins. The headlines that likely caught fantasy players’ eyes this offseason read, “ASJ kicked out of practice” and “ASJ demoted,” but it appears Dirk Koetter’s tough love might pay off. Seferian-Jenkins has reclaimed his starting gig and boasts the always-tantalizing size-speed ratio, in between a pair of fellow monster targets for Jameis Winston on
an upstart attack. Welcome to the TE1sphere, ASJ.
Busts Thomas Rawls RB / Seattle Seahawks
It’s not like there haven’t been warnings, namely Seattle triple-dipping in the draft and re-signing Christine Michael, who we barely resisted designating a sleeper. Rawls was special in his UDFA season, but we don’t know if his violent style can withstand NFL rigors, nor are we sure he’ll have the chance to prove it in a bellcow role. That’s what he’s being drafted to be, though, as RB13.
Matt Jones RB / Washington
Despite failing to display big-play ability, strong ball security and durability as a rookie – other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? – Jones was endorsed in Washington as a feature back. Seriously. Fumbling and frequenting the training room are the two biggest detriments for any aspiring back – and Jones, who struggled with both in key moments, is again on the shelf with a shoulder injury as speedy Chris Thompson and Keith Marshall loom.
Larry Fitzgerald WR / Arizona Cardinals
The beauty of Fitzgerald’s brilliant renaissance in 2015 for owners was his parlaying an average draft position of WR34 into a No. 10 scoring finish. Now they’ll expect the same production, driving up his price tag to WR27
(admittedly, still not totally unreasonable) despite Fitzgerald dealing with a knee injury and falling behind Michael Floyd and John Brown in the two seasons prior to 2015. It’s difficult putting such an easy guy to root for here, but he set the bar awfully high, even by his own Hall of Fame standards, last season.
Jordan Matthews WR / Philadelphia Eagles It hasn’t gone well for most of the Chip Kelly holdovers in Philly, and after a knee injury suffered in practice courtesy of Howie Roseman guy Jalen Mills’ vicious hit, it just feels like Matthews is next. That the Eagles acquired problem child Dorial Green-Beckham doesn’t inspire confidence that Matthews will be himself, at least early in the season, and DGB, Rueben Randle, Nelson Agholor and others could impact his large target share.
Ladarius Green TE / Pittsburgh Steelers Whether it’s his ankle or the reported headaches that kept him on the PUP list as of press time, Green has yet to practice with Ben Roethlisberger and Co. since signing a four-year, $20 million pact this spring. Yet it doesn’t seem his price tag has dropped accordingly. Sure, it’s an explosive offense, albeit one that’s absorbed some offseason blows, but Green has missed critical time learning the system and building a rapport with Roethlisberger. It’s hard to envision a seamless transition, whenever that might occur.
ProFootballWeekly.com
sleepers and busts
pro football weekly | Thursday, August 25, 2016 •
Browns QB Robert Griffin III (left) might just surprise fantasy players, whereas time and injuries are finally catching up with Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald
Game selection is critical to success in DFS By JOHN SAHLY Pro Football Weekly DFS writer Adam Levitan is one of the smartest people I’ve spoken to when it comes to daily fantasy sports. The DraftKings and Fantasy Labs analyst was a recent guest on the PFW Fantasy Football podcast, and one of the first questions I had for him was about the biggest lessons he’s learned after playing DFS for a few years. Levitan said it was game selection. “Let’s be honest, the vast, vast, vast, vast majority of us, including myself, aren’t going to turn $20 into a million. We’re not going to turn $3 into $100,000,” Levitan said. “It’s just really unlikely to happen, especially if you’re following this stuff closely and you’re playing players that a lot of other people might be on.” That’s part of the marketing hook from the big DFS companies. Turn $3 into a million. Take $20 and win hundreds of thousands back. This is not going to happen to you. At least, I’d place much better odds on it not happening than happening. Which is why what games you select when you’re in the lobby for these sites matters. Do you choose a cash game, where you can double your entry fee, or do you
high amount of prize money, and about 10 percent get paid. DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker tournament is an example of a GPP. Qualifier: A tournament where the winner or winners come away with a ticket to another larger contest, typically a GPP. The payout structure is similar to a GPP. In our conversation, Levitan said his suggestion for players new to DFS is to set a smaller goal. Can you cash in on 65 percent of your 50/50s? Can you squeeze out a 15 percent return on your investment in head-to-heads? Sprinkle that in with an occasional shot in a big tournament, Levitan said, and you’re going to AP file photo have a much better experience. An employee of DraftKings, a daily fantasy sports company, walks past screens displayGame selection, coupled with realing the company’s online system stats in Boston. istic expectations and goals, is critical to your DFS experience. You may percent of entrants are paid, typically a take the marketing hook and go for the little less than double the entry fee, and have more fun on Sundays if you are big money? the bottom 50 percent do not cash. 50/50 throwing a few bucks into a big tourBefore we go any further, a brief nament, but it’s just as easy to lose all leagues aren’t as safe as head-to-head primer on the difference between cash of your investment doing so. If you can leagues because a bad lineup can still games and tournaments: spend about 10 percent of your bankroll win a head-to-head, but they are safer per week, and do most of that in cash CASH GAMES than tournaments. games, you’ve got a much better shot of Head-to-head: The safest version of being able to afford a big tournament. a cash game, where entrants face each TOURNAMENTS Stay disciplined, focus on growing GPP: Guaranteed Prize Pool. The other in a one-on-one contest. It’s conyour bankroll, and don’t spend it all in sidered the safest because even a poor prizes are guaranteed, no matter if the one weekend. That starts in the lobby lineup is capable of cashing in. contest fills or not. Often substituted 50/50: A league in which the top 50 with tournament, GPPs typically have a on whatever site you play.
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READ OPTIONS Kevin White has the tools; when will he be a star? By Adam
Jahns
ajahns@suntimes.com @adamjahns
“Come on Kev!” is a common refrain that can be heard at nearly every Bears practice. New receivers coach Curtis Johnson bellows it loud and clear as he gets on Kevin White’s case. Even when one of White’s routes look perfect and a catch is made, Johnson is there to address the most minute of details. “He’s a work in progress right now,” Johnson says. “But he’s going to be a really, really good player for us.” But how soon? Bears fans and fantasy owners need to know. White’s physical tools are elite – he is 6-3 and 216 pounds with sprinter’s speed – but will elite production come with them in 2016? The message from the team is this:
believe in the seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft, but be patient with him. White and star Alshon Jeffery could be the best tandem in the league, but White’s best individual Kevin White days may not arrive until a month or so into the season. White is essentially a rookie after missing all of last season after requiring surgery for a stress fracture in his shin. His limited route-running in college at West Virginia was a concern on draft day, and it remains one. He may have been around the Bears last season, but “mental reps” aren’t the same as actual reps at practice. As Johnson said, “Kevin had a year off.” In that regard, camp has been a grind for White. His chemistry with quarterback Jay Cutler is coming along, but still developing. He’s be-
coming a more precise route-runner under Johnson. And he’s learning from Jeffery to use his size as a major advantage. “He’s taking coaching well and learning,” Jeffery said. “He missed the whole year last year, so this year, he’s progressing right where we need him to be. He listens to the coaches, he’s making plays and he’s having fun.” vvv The 2014 draft class of receivers changed expectations for everyone. It was a special group led by Sammy Watkins (No. 4, Bills), Mike Evans (No. 7, Buccaneers) and Odell Beckham Jr. (No. 11, Giants). There were 15 receivers drafted in the first three rounds. The five firstround selections averaged 70 catches, nearly 980 yards and more than eight touchdowns. Jordan Matthews, the Eagles’ second-round selection, made 67 receptions for 872 yards and eight touchdowns.
Some evaluators expected similar results for the 2015 class, which included White, but the production wasn’t the same. The 2015 class was more like previous ones. The rookies struggled to adjust. Only Amari Cooper (No. 4, Raiders) took off, catching 72 passes for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. The second-best receiver was Vikings fifth-round pick Stefon Diggs, who had 52 receptions for 720 yards and four touchdowns. vvv When it comes to fantasy football, Jeffery is the Bears’ best player. There is risk involved because of his durability, but he’s in a contract year, and that’s a fact of life that should move him up draft boards. The bottom line is that Jeffery produces when he plays. The Bears were below average offensively last season, but Jeffery still averaged 89.7 receiving yards per game, the eighthbest mark in the NFL.
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OPINION
By Bob
LeGere
rlegere@dailyherald.com @BobLeGere
6-foot-5, 243-pound Miller has the most security he’s ever had, but he can’t coast. “You get complacent, you get left,” Miller said. “You have no time to relax in this league. I got a message from one of my old teammates the other day that said, ‘Prepare like you’re a rookie.’ ” Miller won’t let up because he knows there are still questions about him. He came into the 2015 season with an injury-marred career total of 45 receptions for 470 yards and four touchdowns. And even in the first
half of last season, when Bennett was healthy, Miller caught just 5 passes for 58 yards. But over the next seven games, with Bennett hobbled (he played in just four games and had eight catches) and the offense going in another direction, Miller stepped up. He caught 29 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns before missing the season finale with a minor toe injury. Now, it’s all about the encore, and Miller knows there are skeptics. “It’s just one of those things where they want to see if I can do it again,” Miller said. “People want to see if I can put together that half-season for a full season. If [there’s] doubt, I don’t care. It doesn’t matter to me. I have to do what I have to do regardless of what other people say. “I know they’re wondering if the position can survive. But I think we did just fine at the end of last year, the last six or seven games. I just have to go make plays, that’s it.” As the Bears’ new No. 1, Miller will be asked to block more than he ever had in the past prior to taking over for Bennett late last year. It’s a relatively new task for him. As a quarterback at Nebraska-Omaha, Miller never played tight end until
a postseason all-star game after his senior season. “I didn’t know how to play tight end,” he admitted. “I played quarterback my whole life.” Miller will never have the bulk that made the 6-foot-6, 265-pound Bennett a force in the run game. But blocking is a learned skill, and the desire to do it is Zach half the battle, so Miller Miller should be fine. He says tight ends coach Frank Smith helped him make huge strides in that part of his game late last season, but there’s more work to be done. “I finally felt comfortable to where I’m not a liability (as a blocker), as I carried on through the end of the year,” Miller said. “I actually felt like I improved and was playing pretty well in the run game, graded out well, so it was something that improved. But I still have to continue to work on it. You have to work on your weaknesses more than anything, so that’s one of those things I work on.” A healthy Miller will get more time this year than he’s ever had to hone all of his tight end skills.
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For the first time since he entered the NFL as a sixth-round draft pick in 2009, the Bears’ Zach Miller has a chance to enter the season as his team’s undisputed No. 1 tight end – if he’s healthy. That’s always been a big “if” for Miller, who has been slowly working his way back from a July 31 concussion. Miller practiced last weekend, but wore a red jersey, meaning he was “hands-off” to defensive players. He appears close to 100 percent, a status that eluded him for many seasons. Miller didn’t play a game in more than three years from late 2011 through 2014 due to a variety of injuries (foot, calf, knee, shoulder). Last year, healthy at long last, he enjoyed a breakout season with career-bests of 34 catches, 439 yards, 12.9 yards per catch and five touchdowns. The Bears were so pleased with Miller’s work, they traded away Martellus Bennett, their No. 1 tight end the previous three seasons, to the New England Patriots for next to nothing in return. Miller received a two-year contract for $5.5 million, including a $1 million signing bonus and $3 million in guaranteed money based on his strong second half last year. Now the
9 pro football weekly | Thursday, August 25, 2016 •
Zach Miller finally gets opportunity as a No. 1
OLD FACES, NEW PLACES
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OPINION
By J.C.
PFW ranks fantasy value of vets on new teams
Talon
PFW Fantasy writer @jc_talon
The 2016 offseason included several key fantasy players switching NFL teams. Accurately predicting how these players will fit – or not fit – in their new environments could be the difference between a fantasy championship and missing your playoffs. Here’s a look at our top 10 fantasy veterans who will be donning new uniforms in 2016.
1. Lamar Miller Running Back, Texans (from Dolphins) This one seems almost too easy. Last season in Miami, Miller finished 13th in rushing with 872 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, including an 85-yarder. Inexplicably, the Dolphins’ former coaching staff gave him just 12 carries a game. Miller carried the ball fewer than 10 times in six of his 16 starts. He joins a Houston club that will better utilize his considerable talents. Besting his 2014 career high of 1,099 yards and a 5.1 YPC is well within reach.
2. Matt Forte Running Back, Jets (from Bears) At age 30, Forte is five years older AP file photo than Miller and has 2,522 career (regular season) touches, compared to Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller, left, carries the ball past San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks, Miller’s 755. Still, Forte keeps himself right, during both teams first preseason game. Miller expects to receive more carries with the Texans than he did with the in terrific shape and should be a bet- Dolphins, increasing his fantasy value in 2016.) ter-than-average dual-threat running back. Despite the mileage, Forte has 4. DeMarco Murray season with an ankle injury, Jones more impressive. The 26-year-old answered the bell all but eight times Running Back, Titans (from Eagles) bounced back last season to post speedster will enjoy a much more stain his eight-year career, and he has This would look a whole lot bet- career bests in receptions (65) and ble QB situation in San Diego. It might played in all 16 games in five of those ter, fantasy-wise, if the Titans hadn’t yards (816). He had only four TDs, but be worth taking a flier on this flyer. seasons. drafted Derrick Henry in the second found the end zone 10 times – on just round of this year’s draft. Murray 51 catches – in 2013. He joins a De- 7. Robert Griffin III 3. Coby Fleener was a disappointment last season in troit squad that finished last season Quarterback, Browns (from Washington) Tight End, Saints (from Colts) Philly, posting just 702 rushing yards with the league’s ninth-rated passing We will not blame you if you want to Last year with the Colts, Fleener and six TDs on the ground. Perhaps attack. Serving mostly in a complisteer clear of RGIII. He has not played recorded a career-high 54 catches. more discouraging was his 3.6 YPC, mentary role in Cincinnati to A.J. Throughout his Indy career, Fleener especially considering teammate Green, Jones should get plenty of op- in a regular season game since 2014. His routinely shared snaps with Dwayne Ryan Mathews generated 5.1 YPC. portunities this year with the Lions. career-best season totals of 3,203 yards passing (2013) and 20 TD passes (2012) Allen, which undoubtedly limited his The Titans were 25 th last season in are pedestrian, at best. After scoring sevproduction. He still managed to post rushing yards. Still, Murray is just en rushing TDs in his breakout rookie 183 receptions, 2,154 yards and 17 TDs one season removed from his 1,845 6. Travis Benjamin Wide Receiver, Chargers (from Browns) season, he has scored just once since. in four seasons. Fleener has missed yard, 13-TD performance in Dallas. In his first three NFL seasons, Ben- Oh, and the Browns … well, they stink. only four games in his career, and If he falls in your draft, he’s a decent jamin never caught more than 18 balls, BUT … if anyone can get Griffin back none in the last three seasons. Hav- RB3 or RB4 option. but in 2015 he emerged with 68 catches on track it’s new coach Hue Jackson. If ing signed a five-year $36 million deal for 968 yards and five scores. Consider- you have room on your roster, Griffin in New Orleans, Fleener should get 5. Marvin Jones ing he was playing in Cleveland’s ane- might be worth a late-round selection. If his chance to shine as the main TE Wide Receiver, Lions (from Bengals) After missing the entire 2014 mic offense, those numbers are all the nothing else, he’s well rested. option.
8. Martellus Bennett Tight End, Patriots (from Bears) Fantasy owners who want to think big can look back to the 2011 season when the TE combo of Gronk and Aaron Hernandez combined for 169 receptions, 2,237 yards and 24 TDs. The Patriots again have a Dynamic Duo at tight end, this time with Bennett playing Robin to Gronk’s Batman. Bennett’s best season was 2014 with Chicago when he led all tight ends with 90 catches and 910 yards. Bennett is a top-end TE2, but a certain TE1 if Gronk misses any time to injury.
9. Dorial Green-Beckham
10. BROCK OSWEILER QUARTERBACK, TEXANS (FROM BRONCOS) The Texans paid a boatload to sign the fifth-year QB away from the Broncos. It was a pretty big gamble considering Osweiler has started all of seven games in his career. In 2015, he threw for 10 TDs and 1,967 yards in those seven starts (eight appearances). It is hard to glean much from the first two preseason games, but early indications are that Osweiler is comfortable in Houston’s offense.
Best of the Rest: Chris Ivory, RB, Jaguars (from Jets); Mohamed Sanu, WR Falcons (from Bengals); Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins (from Texans); Jared Cook, TE, Packers (from Rams).
AP file photo
New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith, left, hands off the ball to running back Mat Forte during a preseason practice. Even at 30 years old, Forte projects to be a better-than-average, dual-threat fantasy running back this season.
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Wide Receiver, Eagles (from Titans) The Titans selected DGB with the 40th pick of the 2015 Draft. He entered the league with enormous potential and considerable off-the-field baggage. His rookie season was somewhat disappointing (32549-4), but he seemed to be coming on later in the season, post-
ing 100-yard games in Weeks 13 and 15. Tennessee grew tired of DGB’s inconsistency and traded him to Philly. The second-year receiver has the physical ability to be productive. It’s the rest of the equation that remains in question.
pro football weekly | Thursday, August 25, 2016 •
Gronkowski, Bennett make a nice TE1-2 combo
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| pro football weekly
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2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS PFW staff ranks the top players by position
AP file photos
quarterbacks 1. Cam Newton/Panthers 2. Aaron Rodgers/Packers 3. Russell Wilson/Seahawks 4. Ben Roethlisberger/Steelers 5. Andrew Luck/Colts 6. Drew Brees/Saints 7. Carson Palmer/Cardinals 8. Tom Brady/Patriots 9. Blake Bortles/Jaguars 10. Eli Manning/Giants 11. Philip Rivers/Chargers 12. Derek Carr/Raiders 13. Tyrod Taylor/Bills 14. Tony Romo/Cowboys 15. Kirk Cousins/Washington 16. Matthew Stafford/Lions 17. Andy Dalton/Bengals 18. Jameis Winston/Buccaneers 19. Marcus Mariota/Titans 20. Matt Ryan/Falcons 21. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jets 22. Jay Cutler/Bears 23. Robert Griffin III/Browns 24. Ryan Tannehill/Dolphins 25. Brock Osweiler/Texans 26. Joe Flacco/Ravens 27. Alex Smith/Chiefs 28. Sam Bradford/Eagles 29. Teddy Bridgewater/Vikings 30. Colin Kaepernick/49ers
Running backs 1. Todd Gurley/Rams 2. David Johnson/Cardinals 3. Le’Veon Bell/Steelers 4. Adrian Peterson/Vikings 5. Ezekiel Elliott/Cowboys 6. Devonta Freeman/Falcons 7. Jamaal Charles/Chiefs 8. Lamar Miller/Texans 9. Doug Martin/Buccaneers 10. Mark Ingram/Saints 11. LeSean McCoy/Bills 12. Eddie Lacy/Packers
13. C.J. Anderson/Broncos 14. Matt Forte/Jets 15. Thomas Rawls/Seahawks 16. Carlos Hyde/49ers 17. Jeremy Hill/Bengals 18. DeMarco Murray/Titans 19. Jeremy Langford/Bears 20. Latavius Murray/Raiders 21. Jonathan Stewart/Panthers 22. Ryan Mathews/Eagles 23. Frank Gore/Colts 24. T.J. Yeldon/Jaguars 25. Giovani Bernard/Bengals 26. Jay Ajayi/Dolphins 27. Melvin Gordon/Chargers 28. DeAngelo Williams/Steelers 29. Danny Woodhead/Chargers 30. Matt Jones/Washington 31. Ameer Abdullah/Lions 32. Derrick Henry/Titans 33. Rashad Jennings/Giants 34. Arian Foster/Dolphins 35. Chris Ivory/Jaguars 36. Duke Johnson/Browns 37. Justin Forsett/Ravens 38. Isaiah Crowell/Browns 39. Charles Sims/Buccaneers 40. LeGarrette Blount/Patriots 41. Christine Michael/Seahawks 42. Tevin Coleman/Falcons 43. Bilal Powell/Jets 44. DeAndre Washington/Raiders 45. Dion Lewis/Patriots 46. Kenneth Dixon/Ravens 47. Theo Riddick/Lions 48. James Starks/Packers 49. Devontae Booker/Broncos 50. Javorious Allen/Ravens
wide receivers
1. Antonio Brown/Steelers 2. Odell Beckham Jr./Giants 3. Julio Jones/Falcons 4. DeAndre Hopkins/Texans 5. Dez Bryant/Cowboys
6. A.J. Green/Bengals 7. Allen Robinson/Jaguars 8. Alshon Jeffery/Bears 9. Jordy Nelson/Packers 10. Brandon Marshall/Jets 11. Mike Evans/Buccaneers 12. Demaryius Thomas/Broncos 13. Amari Cooper/Raiders 14. Brandin Cooks/Saints 15. Keenan Allen/Chargers 16. Sammy Watkins/Bills 17. T.Y. Hilton/Colts 18. Eric Decker/Jets 19. Jeremy Maclin/Chiefs 20. Julian Edelman/Patriots 21. Kelvin Benjamin/Panthers 22. Jarvis Landry/Dolphins 23. Doug Baldwin/Seahawks 24. Randall Cobb/Packers 25. Michael Floyd/Cardinals 26. Emmanuel Sanders/Broncos 27. Golden Tate/Lions 28. Donte Moncrief/Colts 29. Allen Hurns/Jaguars 30. John Brown/Cardinals 31. Tyler Lockett/Seahawks 32. DeSean Jackson/Washington 33. Michael Crabtree/Raiders 34. Larry Fitzgerald/Cardinals 35. Marvin Jones/Lions 36. Jordan Matthews/Eagles 37. Kevin White/Bears 38. DeVante Parker/Dolphins 39. Stefon Diggs/Vikings 40. Corey Coleman/Browns 41. Vincent Jackson/Buccaneers 42. Josh Gordon/Browns 43. Sterling Shepard/Giants 44. Willie Snead/Saints 45. Michael Thomas/Saints 46. Markus Wheaton/Steelers 47. Torrey Smith/49ers 48. Devin Funchess/Panthers 49. Phillip Dorsett/Colts 50. Travis Benjamin/Chargers
Cam Newton
Todd Gurley
Antonio Brown
tight ends
Top 200 regardless of position WR1 WR2 WR3 RB1 RB2 WR4 WR5 RB3 WR6 RB4 TE1 WR7 RB5 WR8 WR9 RB6 RB7 RB8 WR10 RB9 RB10 WR11 WR12 QB1 WR13 RB11 WR14 WR15 RB12 RB13 QB2 QB3 WR16 RB14 RB15 TE2 TE3 WR17 WR18 WR19 RB16 QB4 QB5 QB6 RB17 RB18 WR20 WR21 RB19 RB20 WR22 WR23 WR24 WR25 WR26 RB21 RB22 RB23 QB7 TE4 WR27 WR28 WR29 WR30 QB8 TE5
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1. Antonio Brown/Steelers 2. Odell Beckham Jr./Giants 3. Julio Jones/Falcons 4. Todd Gurley/Rams 5. David Johnson/Cardinals 6. DeAndre Hopkins/Texans 7. Dez Bryant/Cowboys 8. Le’Veon Bell/Steelers 9. A.J. Green/Bengals 10. Adrian Peterson/Vikings 11. Rob Gronkowski/Patriots 12. Allen Robinson/Jaguars 13. Ezekiel Elliott/Cowboys 14. Alshon Jeffery/Bears 15. Jordy Nelson/Packers 16. Devonta Freeman/Falcons 17. Jamaal Charles/Chiefs 18. Lamar Miller/Texans 19. Brandon Marshall/Jets 20. Doug Martin/Buccaneers 21. Mark Ingram/Saints 22. Mike Evans/Buccaneers 23. Demaryius Thomas/Broncos 24. Cam Newton/Panthers 25. Amari Cooper/Raiders 26. LeSean McCoy/Bills 27. Brandin Cooks/Saints 28. Keenan Allen/Chargers 29. Eddie Lacy/Packers 30. C.J. Anderson/Broncos 31. Aaron Rodgers/Packers 32. Russell Wilson/Seahawks 33. Sammy Watkins/Bills 34. Matt Forte/Jets 35. Thomas Rawls/Seahawks 36. Jordan Reed/Washington 37. Greg Olsen/Panthers 38. T.Y. Hilton/Colts 39. Eric Decker/Jets 40. Jeremy Maclin/Chiefs 41. Carlos Hyde/49ers 42. Ben Roethlisberger/Steelers 43. Andrew Luck/Colts 44. Drew Brees/Saints 45. Jeremy Hill/Bengals 46. DeMarco Murray/Titans 47. Julian Edelman/Patriots 48. Kelvin Benjamin/Panthers 49. Jeremy Langford/Bears 50. Latavius Murray/Raiders 51. Jarvis Landry/Dolphins 52. Doug Baldwin/Seahawks 53. Randall Cobb/Packers 54. Michael Floyd/Cardinals 55. Emmanuel Sanders/Broncos 56. Jonathan Stewart/Panthers 57. Ryan Mathews/Eagles 58. Frank Gore/Colts 59. Carson Palmer/Cardinals 60. Travis Kelce/Chiefs 61. Golden Tate/Lions 63. Donte Moncrief/Colts 63. Allen Hurns/Jaguars 64. John Brown/Cardinals 65. Tom Brady/Patriots 66. Coby Fleener/Saints
134. Eric Ebron/Lions TE16 135. Seattle Seahawks D-ST D-ST1 136. Sammie Coates/Steelers WR53 137. Jameis Winston/Buccaneers QB18 138. Marcus Mariota/Titans QB19 139. Kamar Aiken/Ravens WR54 140. Mohamed Sanu/Falcons WR55 141. Anquan Boldin/Lions WR56 142. Jared Cook/Packers TE17 143. Zach Miller/Bears TE18 144. Arizona Cardinals D-ST D-ST2 145. Denver Broncos D-ST D-ST3 146. Matt Ryan/Falcons QB20 147. Terrance Williams/Cowboys WR57 148. Mike Wallace/Ravens WR58 149. Dorial Green-Beckham/Eagles WR59 150. Clive Walford/Raiders TE19 151. Ladarius Green/Steelers TE20 152. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jets QB21 153. Jay Cutler/Bears QB22 154. Houston Texans D-ST D-ST4 155. Robert Griffin III/Browns QB23 156. Ryan Tannehill/Dolphins QB24 157. Javorious Allen/Ravens RB50 158. Shane Vereen/Giants RB51 159. Rishard Matthews/Dolphins WR60 160. Ted Ginn/Panthers WR61 161. Chris Thompson/Washington RB52 162. Tyler Boyd/Bengals WR62 163. Will Fuller/Texans WR63 164. Pierre Garcon/Washington WR64 165. Austin Seferian-Jenkins/Buccaneers TE21 166. Brock Osweiler/Texans QB25 167. Joe Flacco/Ravens QB26 168. Alex Smith/Chiefs QB27 169. Josh Doctson/Washington WR65 170. New York Jets D-ST D-ST5 171. Darren McFadden/Cowboys RB53 172. Jerick McKinnon/Vikings RB54 173. Cameron Artis-Payne/Panthers RB55 174. Chris Johnson/Cardinals RB56 175. Bruce Ellington/49ers WR66 176. Rueben Randle/Eagles WR67 177. Jaelen Strong/Texans WR68 178. Darren Sproles/Eagles RB57 179. Kansas City Chiefs D-ST D-ST6 180. Minnesota Vikings D-ST D-ST7 181. Chris Hogan/Patriots WR69 182. Nelson Agholor/Eagles WR70 183. C.J. Prosise/Seahawks RB58 184. James White/Patriots RB59 185. Carolina Panthers D-ST D-ST8 186. Charles Clay/Bills TE22 187. Kyle Rudolph/Vikings TE23 188. Benjamin Watson/Ravens TE24 189. Sam Bradford/Eagles QB28 190. Cincinnati Bengals D-ST D-ST9 191. Los Angeles Rams D-ST D-ST10 192. New England Patriots D-ST D-ST11 193. Charcandrick West/Chiefs RB60 194. Green Bay Packers D-ST D-ST12 195. Pittsburgh Steelers D-ST D-ST13 196. Breshad Perriman/Ravens WR71 197. Paul Perkins/Giants RB61 198. Terrelle Pryor/Browns WR72 199. Will Tye/Giants TE25 200. Tajae Sharpe/Titans WR73
pro football weekly | Thursday, August 25, 2016 •
placekickers 1. Stephen Gostkowski/Patriots 2. Steven Hauschka/Seahawks 3. Justin Tucker/Ravens 4. Graham Gano/Panthers 5. Chandler Catanzaro/Cardinals 6. Mason Crosby/Packers 7. Dan Bailey/Cowboys 8. Brandon McManus/Broncos 9. Adam Vinatieri/Colts 10. Blair Walsh/Vikings 11. Josh Brown/Giants 12. Cairo Santos/Chiefs 13. Matt Prater/Lions 14. Mike Nugent/Bengals 15. Chris Boswell/Steelers 16. Dan Carpenter/Bills 17. Dustin Hopkins/Washington 18. Robbie Gould/Bears 19. Josh Lambo/Chargers 20. Roberto Aguayo/Buccaneers defense/special teams 1. Seattle Seahawks 2. Arizona Cardinals 3. Denver Broncos 4. Houston Texans 5. New York Jets 6. Kansas City Chiefs 7. Minnesota Vikings 8. Carolina Panthers 9. Cincinnati Bengals 10. Los Angeles Rams 11. New England Patriots 12. Green Bay Packers 13. Pittsburgh Steelers 14. Buffalo Bills 15. Jacksonville Jaguars 16. Oakland Raiders 17. Baltimore Ravens 18. Washington 19. Philadelphia Eagles 20. Detroit Lions 1. Rob Gronkowski/Patriots 2. Jordan Reed/Washington 3. Greg Olsen/Panthers 4. Travis Kelce/Chiefs 5. Coby Fleener/Saints 6. Delanie Walker/Titans 7. Zach Ertz/Eagles 8. Gary Barnidge/Browns 9. Tyler Eifert/Bengals 10. Antonio Gates/Chargers 11. Julius Thomas/Jaguars 12. Martellus Bennett/Patriots 13. Jason Witten/Cowboys 14. Jimmy Graham/Seahawks 15. Dwayne Allen/Colts 16. Eric Ebron/Lions 17. Jared Cook/Packers 18. Zach Miller/Bears 19. Clive Walford/Raiders 20. Ladarius Green/Steelers 21. Austin Seferian-Jenkins/ Buccaneers 22. Charles Clay/Bills 23. Kyle Rudolph/Vikings 24. Benjamin Watson/Ravens 25. Will Tye/Giants
67. Delanie Walker/Titans TE6 68. Tyler Lockett/Seahawks WR31 69. DeSean Jackson/Washington WR32 70. Michael Crabtree/Raiders WR33 71. Blake Bortles/Jaguars QB9 72. Eli Manning/Giants QB10 73. Larry Fitzgerald/Cardinals WR34 74. Marvin Jones/Lions WR35 75. Jordan Matthews/Eagles WR36 76. T.J. Yeldon/Jaguars RB24 77. Giovani Bernard/Bengals RB25 78. Jay Ajayi/Dolphins RB26 79. Zach Ertz/Eagles TE7 80. Melvin Gordon/Chargers RB27 81. DeAngelo Williams/Steelers RB28 82. Danny Woodhead/Chargers RB29 83. Matt Jones/Washington RB30 84. Gary Barnidge/Browns TE8 85. Tyler Eifert/Bengals TE9 86. Kevin White/Bears WR37 87. DeVante Parker/Dolphins WR38 88. Stefon Diggs/Vikings WR39 89. Ameer Abdullah/Lions RB31 90. Philip Rivers/Chargers QB11 91. Derek Carr/Raiders QB12 92. Antonio Gates/Chargers TE10 93. Julius Thomas/Jaguars TE11 94. Derrick Henry/Titans RB32 95. Rashad Jennings/Giants RB33 96. Corey Coleman/Browns WR40 97. Arian Foster/Dolphins RB34 98. Chris Ivory/Jaguars RB35 99. Duke Johnson/Browns RB36 100. Justin Forsett/Ravens RB37 101. Vincent Jackson/Buccaneers WR41 102. Josh Gordon/Browns WR42 103. Isaiah Crowell/Browns RB38 104. Tyrod Taylor/Bills QB13 105. Tony Romo/Cowboys QB14 106. Kirk Cousins/Washington QB15 107. Martellus Bennett/Patriots TE12 108. Sterling Shepard/Giants WR43 109. Willie Snead/Saints WR44 110. Michael Thomas/Saints WR45 111. Markus Wheaton/Steelers WR46 112. Charles Sims/Buccaneers RB39 113. LeGarrette Blount/Patriots RB40 114. Christine Michael/Seahawks RB41 115. Torrey Smith/49ers WR47 116. Devin Funchess/Panthers WR48 117. Tevin Coleman/Falcons RB42 118. Bilal Powell/Jets RB43 119. Jason Witten/Cowboys TE13 120. Jimmy Graham/Seahawks TE14 121. Matthew Stafford/Lions QB16 122. Phillip Dorsett/Colts WR49 123. DeAndre Washington/Raiders RB44 124. Dion Lewis/Patriots RB45 125. Travis Benjamin/Chargers WR50 126. Kenneth Dixon/Ravens RB46 127. Theo Riddick/Lions RB47 128. Andy Dalton/Bengals QB17 129. Tavon Austin/Rams WR51 130. James Starks/Packers RB48 131. Devontae Booker/Broncos RB49 132. Laquon Treadwell/Vikings WR52 133. Dwayne Allen/Colts TE15
ProFootballWeekly.com • Thursday, August 25, 2016
| pro football weekly
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TAKE TWO Kevin Fishbain
Patrick Finley
Bears are mostly a fantasy gamble in 2016 With it being fantasy football draft season, Kevin Fishbain of Pro Football Weekly and Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times discuss how fantasy owners should view key Chicago Bears skill players in their drafts.
FINLEY: I’m glad you said recreational, Kevin. Playing for money is both morally wrong and fiscally irresponsible. (Looks around nervously. The coast is clear?) OK, here’s the deal: Kevin White will be the one of those three to own. He’ll benefit from having Alshon Jeffery on the other side of the formation, and is certainly more explosive than either Langford or Miller. The Bears’ starting tight end will get his Alshon targets – I mean, they Jeffery have no one else – so I’m fine putting him in the second tier, league-wide. I don’t like Langford as a fantasy play; the Bears drafted Jordan Howard to eventually take over a goal line role,
FINLEY: Braverman’s probably the best low-risk, high-reward sleeper, followed by Marc Mariani, who wide receivers coach Curtis Johnson said he loved during camp. Let’s not forget either Josh Bellamy or Cam Meredith: in the likely (inevitable?) case that Jeffery or White get hurt, they’re the ones who will play out-
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FISHBAIN: One important rule of thumb – fantasy football can be a crapshoot. Maybe you lose a championship because Austin Seferian-Jenkins caught a meaningless Hail Mary against the Bears in Week 16 ... not that I’m bitter or anything ... This seems to be the year of the wide receivers, though. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. can carry a fantasy team, but I always feel good if I get one of the top three quarterbacks to get some consistent points. What’s your secret? FINLEY: You’re a quarterbacks guy? I’m not, actually – I don’t think No. 12 is any different than No. 8 in most years, so I usually end up playing a game I like to call Andy Dalton Roulette. And this isn’t a secret, but a strategy nonetheless: as the league has become more pass-friendly in the last decade, I find wide receivers to be more of a sure thing than running backs. I’ll take them high and fill my bench with running back gambles that I hope will pay off. It’s amazing: after years of Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett being close to fantasy sure things, I have a feeling I’ll find more and more Bears in my “gamble” pile.
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FISHBAIN: Patrick, last time we met in this forum, we discussed the common summer question about what the Bears’ record will be this season. Now, it’s August, and that question remains. But so do the lingering fantasy questions: “When should I take Jeremy Langford in my fantasy draft?” And, “Will Kevin White be a good fantasy football player?” In past years, fantasy owners could feel pretty comfortable drafting Matt Forte or Martellus Bennett or (a healthy) Alshon Jeffery. This year, the questions all surround Langford, White and Zach Miller. Do you have any sage advice for these recreation-
al fantasy football players?
FISHBAIN: I’m excited to see fantasy owners groan the first time the Bears send Carey or Howard onto the field in a goal-line situation, or put Jacquizz Rodgers in the backfield for third down. I still think Langford is the best bet of the group at least to get the most touches, but his fantasy expectations are lower now than they were the day we knew Forte wasn’t returning. Carey or Howard would be the “sleeper” in the Bears’ backfield, but I think there’s more value trying to find the extra pass catcher outside the big three. At this time last year, fantasy owners were ready to pounce on Eddie Royal, and he disappointed. If healthy, he’s completely under the radar. If not, do you take a chance on one of the reserve wideouts in a deeper league? (Fans race to draft Daniel Braverman.)
side. Got any general rules of thumb this year, Kevin? Or fantasy plays you want to stick your name to?
pro football weekly | Thursday, August 25, 2016 •
and Ka’Deem Carey could do that in the meantime. Which Bears running back is worth a flyer, Kevin? Also, got any sleeper ideas?
ProFootballWeekly.com • Thursday, August 25, 2016
| pro football weekly
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