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Ag Mag 3

CONTENTS

Ag Mag

Farm-to-Fork with Valley Fresh Harvest �� 6 Training day �� 9 Agriculture’s talent pool must reach beyond farms �� 13 Weather, mechanical issues delay planting �� 16 Thin margins amid economic growth �� 19 War hits oil, grain markets �� 21

Bureau County Republican P.O. Box 340 Princeton, IL 61356-0340 815-220-6948 Publisher Dan Goetz Editor Jim Henry Regional Advertising Director Jeanette Smith jmsmith@shawmedia.com

Writers Martha Blum Tom C. Doran Miriam Hoffman Jeannine Otto Katlyn Sanden Photographers Martha Blum Miriam Hoffman Jeannine Otto Designer Liz Klein

Articles are the property of AgriNews. No portion of the North Central Illinois Ag Mag may be reproduced without the written consent of the publisher. Ad content is not the responsibility of the Bureau County Republican. The information in this magazine is believed to be accurate; however, the Bureau County Republican cannot and does not guarantee its accuracy. The Bureau County Republican cannot and will not be held liable for the quality or performance of goods and services provided by advertisers listed in any portion of this magazine.

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Ag Mag 5

Farm-to-Fork with Valley Fresh Harvest Story by Katlyn Sanden

magine a service where you can order wholesome, organic food directly to your doorstep. Even better, how about knowing the farmer who grew that food, and better yet, what if that farmer was your neighbor and the food was grown in your home county. Wouldn’t that be a tasty and environmentally-friendly way to get your food? That’s exactly what Tony Stirling of Valley Fresh Harvest thought too. Stirling grew up in a family grain operation and went on to receive a master’s degree in agronomy. He then spent a number of years doing corn research, so the importance of growing and consuming fresh food is not lost on him. “The nice thing about what we’re doing is giving someone local a chance to buy local products to help out farmers in a one-stop shop,” Stirling said. Valley Fresh Harvest is a farm-to-table online market serving the Illinois Valley area, as well as the Milton, Wisconsin area. The difference between this online market and the local farmers market is that they can serve customers throughout the entire year, versus being tied to specific growing seasons. Working with 60 different farms across central Illinois and south-central Wisconsin gives Valley Fresh Harvest the ability to offer produce, meat, dairy, and other specialty seasonal items. They currently offer citrus, cheese, and a variety of greens, including kale, arugula,

6 Summer 2022

PHOTO CONTRIBUTED

Tony Stirling of Valley Fresh Harvest with his wife, Leah; daughter, Nelia; and son, Brooks. swiss chard, and spinach. In addition, they offer red and yellow potatoes, purple radishes, heirloom tomatoes, a variety of herbs including cilantro and basil, eggs, quail eggs, honey, coffee, maple syrup, sunflower oil, popcorn, mushrooms, flour, wheat, rye, oats, rice, a variety of milks, Greek yogurt, sour cream, beef sticks as well as cuts of

Left: Here is some of the produce that customers can choose from on a weekly basis. Above: Besides fresh produce, Valley Fresh Harvest also offers specialty items that include honey, flour, and other seasonal items. PHOTOS CONTRIBUTED

beef, cuts of pork, chicken, duck, turkey, and cuts of lamb. All of the produce is either certified organic or raised with organic practices, and all the meats are pasture-raised and fed non-GMO feed if grain-finished. All the milk is non-homogenized. The specialty items that aren’t grown within a 150-mile radius of Ladd come from groups of farmers in other states, but Stirling said it gets shipped directly to him from farm-to-farm. The idea of Valley Fresh Harvest dawned on Stirling when he was delivering produce he grew in his greenhouse to a group of buyers that stock city restaurants. He wanted to be able to bridge the gap from farmer to consumer directly. And if by filling a need on the consumer side with fresh food, he could help out local farmers on the other side, that sounded like a win during his long delivery routes. “Our whole goal is to let people order whatever they want,” said Stirling. “There are no membership fees, no minimums. So if you

want a gallon of milk, you can do that. We try to make it as easy and simple for everyone as possible.” Prices vary, but order forms are sent out Friday evenings, with orders being due at noon on Sundays. Stirling said that way customers can get whatever they want, when they want. If they don’t need anything one week, they can get back on the next week. “Whatever we can do to help out our local community is what we do,” Stirling said. “We work with 10-20 farmers from the Illinois Valley to supply daily needs.” In the future, Stirling hopes more local farmers can get involved in order to offer a larger variety. He also has high hopes to add green beans, bell peppers, jalapeno peppers, habanero peppers, snap peas, watermelon, cantaloupe, and honeydew in the coming year. For more information or to get on Valley Fresh Harvest mailing list, visit valleyfreshharvest.com.

“The nice thing about what we’re doing is giving someone local a chance to buy local products to help out farmers in a one-stop shop.” Tony Stirling

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A YEAR IN THE LIFE OF A FARMER

AGRINEWS PHOTO/MARTHA BLUM

John Mitchell prepares to administer aspirin to a cow in the fresh pen on the farm near Winnebago, Illinois. Mitchell identifies cows that are not feeling well based off their rumination collars, which track how many minutes per day the cows are ruminating and their activity compared to the baseline normal for each cow.

Training day Phibro interns get hands-on lessons at farm Follow the Mitchell family throughout the entire year. Each month, look for updates about the family members and the decisions they make on their farm. By Martha Blum

AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

WINNEBAGO, Ill. — Summer interns for Phibro Animal Health prepared for their summer work during an on-farm training day at the Mitchell dairy farm. The Phibro Animal Health interns traveled to northern Illinois from across the United States.

“We have interns from New York to California here to teach them Phibro’s approved method for being on farm, handling cows and safety along with industry standards for farm management,” said Erica Varner, senior account manager for Phibro Animal Health. The two-day training session started with day of instructions at a hotel. “We went through safety, educated them on products, expectations in the field and some sales training so they know how to talk to people on the farms,” Varner said. “We also gave them an overview of Phibro — who we are and why we do what we do.” At the dairy farm, the interns observed the cows and the dairy facilities to learn about a variety of management criteria such as body condition

scoring, manure scoring, cud chewing, cow comfort, stocking density, respiration rates, proper TMR consistency and urine pH testing. “Our interns are hands-on with cows and we give them projects,” Varner said. “We help them, but we allow them to run their projects independently.” The Phibro interns will do projects such as heat stress assessments or overall farm stress assessments. “All the interns will come together in August to present their projects and all the information they found to the intern group and the Phibro leadership team,” said Varner, who is also the intern coordinator. “They asked me for some tips about being courteous on See TRAINING page 10

Ag Mag 9

Training FROM PAGE 9

a farm,” said John Mitchell, who together with his brother, Aaron, are partners in Mitchell Dairy and Grain LLC. “I don’t think I’ve encountered any other company that sends interns out to train on a farm.” Phibro’s interns not only receive valuable job experience, they also are paid for their work during the summer. “Our goal since we started this program was to be the best, most sought-after internship in the dairy industry,” Varner said. “We go to the best ag schools across the U.S. and we interview a lot of students,” she said. “We’re only picking the top-tier students to be part of our program and we expect a lot out of them.” Roommates at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls, Katie Yahnke and Rachel Skinner are two of the Phibro interns for the summer. “We found out in November AGRINEWS PHOTO/MARTHA BLUM that we were interns and I’ve been looking forward to it for Phibro Animal Health interns Rachel Skinner (from left) and Katie Yahnke learn how to take a proper feed the whole spring semester,” sample from Tommie Loken during a training day at the Mitchell dairy farm. A group of college students said Yahnke, who will be a se- spent a day at the dairy operation to learn a variety of skills they will utilize during their summer internships.

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nior in the fall studying dairy science and ag business. “We’re both friends with one of last year’s interns and she highly recommended the position and talked about all the great things she did last summer so I’m excited,” said Skinner, who will also enter her senior year in the fall to complete her dairy science degree. “The great thing about internships is you can try it for three months and see of it’s really for you or not and you see all the different parts of the dairy industry without fully committing to them.” “John is so welcoming, he has allowed us to come through and work with the cows,” Varner said. “We really appreciate him opening the farm to us.” ANIMATE FED TO DRY COWS Mitchell has fed a Phibro product, Animate, to his dry cows for about three years. “Animate is an all-natural mineral product that is fed for a minimum of 21 days to prefresh cows,” said Varner, who provides on-farm support for the product with the Mitchells and their nutritionist. Animate is blended into the TMR. “It is an anionic salt and its purpose is to help the cows achieve the correct calcium metabolism,” Mitchell said. “The goal is to prevent milk fever and it has an effect on retained placentas and metritis.” Research shows that even if a cow is not down with milk fever, a subclinical problem with calcium levels after the cows calve, can cause them to have a slow start in milk production, Mitchell said. “In general, with this type of product, it’s not very palatable, so if you overfeed it, cows won’t eat,” he said. “Getting it perfectly dialed in is important, so Erica comes to the farm and measures urine pH to determine if we’re feeding it properly.” Varner visits the northern Illinois farm every one to two months. “Generally by the time you see a problem in fresh cows, the problem was really a couple of weeks ago,” Mitchell said. “So, we try to keep on top of it.” Phibro offers an Animate app to help dairymen track the performance of their pre-fresh cows. “The app is cool, my nutri-

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tionist uses it to look at urine pH,” Mitchell said. “We can track trends, look at standard deviations or averages. It has historical data, so we can look at successes or failures.” The several days of 90-degree temperatures in May had an impact on the 400-cow registered Holstein herd. “Milk production dropped about five pounds per cow,” Mitchell said. “After that, the cows went through the spring flush that we normally see when it warms up, so we had higher production, but lower components. Milk production was at 91 pounds, it went down to 86 pounds and now the cows are back up to 92 to 93 pounds.” However, the warm, dry days also provided the opportunity to complete the first cutting of alfalfa, as well as the harvesting of cereal rye. “The alfalfa quality was pretty good, the first test we got back from the green sample was 182 RFV and my nutritionist took some more samples today,” said Mitchell about the haylage that was put into a bunker. “The yield was pretty good considering about half of the acres were seeded in the fall.” The yield from the cereal rye was more than Mitchell expected. “It was probably the best yields we’ve had for the six years we’ve done it,” he said. “The cereal rye went into our smallest bunker and filled almost three bags.” Last year the cereal rye filled two storage bags that were not as long as the bags this year. “We did have an extra 20 acres of cereal rye this year,” Mitchell said. “So, hopefully we’re sitting pretty strong on that inventory.” Martha Blum can be reached at 815-410-2254, or mblum@ shawmedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at: @AgNews_Blum.

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Agriculture’s talent pool must reach beyond farms By Miriam Hoffman

y mother exemplifies the ethos of the ideal American farmer: a thoughtful steward of the land, an acute decision-maker and a relentlessly hard worker. Watching her work cattle is like watching Gordon Ramsay cook a gourmet dinner or Brad Paisley play an electric guitar riff. It seems obvious she’s been doing it all her life, she’s so good at it. Except, she hasn’t. Is agriculture so different from other fields that you can’t ever understand it without being raised by a farmer? Can we afford to exclude the talent, ideas and perspectives of those not agriculturally

minded from birth and still remain a competitive modern industry? I recently saw a Twitter thread which asked a question along the lines of, “Is it possible for someone not born into agriculture to understand the industry?” As an “ag kid” myself, it’s tempting to think the answer is a resounding no. I mean, just look at all the ways agriculture is different from other industries — from being at the mercy of volatile weather, to the often generations-deep emotional attachment to land and livestock, to the fact we produce one of the necessities of life for every human being. It’s clear agriculture is cut from a different cloth. Yet, as unique as agriculture is, I can’t help but feel we’re

missing something if we only look to ourselves and our own offspring for ideas, talent and good people. Consider my mother’s experience. Other than the occasional elementary school field trip, my mother didn’t step foot on a farm until she was 21 and several years into college. The daughter of two doctors, she wasn’t the typical agricultural engineering student. She didn’t study agriculture because she was raised in it, wanted to continue a family tradition, or any of the reasons most of us born-and-raised farm kids continue down an agricultural career path. She studied agriculture because she found it fascinating. See TALENT page 14 Ag Mag 13

Talent FROM PAGE 13

She worked on a diversified crop and livestock farm in north-central Illinois for several summers to get hands-on experience and conveniently, at least for the sake of my existence, she married the farmer. Over 40 years later, she’s still farming. The last 17 years since my father’s passing, she’s continued on. Along with several of my siblings, she’s continuing to streamline our cattle genetics business. She’s helped diversify our operation into organic grain and produce markets. My mother is a leader in purebred dairy cattle associations, a source of sage wisdom on caring for cattle and keenly aware of how and why agriculture is — and must continue — focusing on people. Sure, being born into a

farming family lends advantages in pursuing an agricultural career. You have a head start in understanding the unique quirks of the industry and are likely have family friends who double as members of your professional network. Yet, I believe our greatest disadvantage is a bent toward feeling superior simply because of our background. If we’re not careful, our very love for the industry of agriculture could become its downfall. Why would we curtail the talent pool in our industry because of the notion that you have to be born an agriculturist to become one? Just because farm kids have a foot in the door already doesn’t give us an excuse to exclude those who don’t. As the economy continues to integrate, with more overlap among sectors like agriculture, food science, financial technology and others, we must pursue re-

lentless innovation to remain relevant. But it’s more than just staying relevant. The best tables for developing strong ideas are those filled with people who don’t all think the same thing. National Football League player-turned-farmer Jason Brown has cultivated his own success on a North Carolina farm in part because of his newness to agriculture, bringing his ideas to all types of industry tables at conferences across the country. His classroom consisted of YouTube videos, a 1,000-acre farm and a willingness to fail and try again. People like my mother and Jason bring a freshness to agriculture that people like me cannot. Those of us “insiders” are blind to some of our own inconsistencies and weaknesses. I know I certainly take many things for granted. Individuals with a fresh perspective on agriculture, like my mother, bring awareness

to our blind spots in ways those of us born into the industry simply cannot see. We can’t limit our talent and idea pool because of a misplaced belief that we’re better because we were here first. My mother wasn’t born on a farm. She didn’t hang out with farmers when she was a kid. She didn’t simply marry a farmer. She became one. It seems the ethos of the American farmer is less about where you were born and more about how you choose to embrace your curiosity, invest your talent and step into the unknown. Born into it or not, these are the attitudes agriculture needs. Miriam Hoffman, 21, is an Illinois Farm Bureau member who loves agriculture, people and learning new things about the world. She moved from the family farm in La Salle County to Southern Illinois University Carbondale and studies agribusiness economics.

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Ag Mag 15

FROM THE FIELDS

Wet weather has slowed planting down for farmers throughout Illinois, including in southern Illinois. Nick Harre, district director for the Illinois Soybean Association, said he and his family have their full-season soybeans all in the ground and are about half done with corn planting. They also raise double-crop soybeans following their wheat crop.

Weather, mechanical issues delay planting By Jeannine Otto

AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

NASHVILLE, Ill. — Nick Harre is a doctor, having earned his Ph.D. from Purdue University in 2017. But he’s also a carpenter, electrician, dairy cow breeder and heifer barn herdsman. But when it’s time to plant or harvest the crops that go to feed the farm’s dairy herd, his job description expands. “We all have certain things that are our specialty, but when it’s go time, all bets are off and anybody can do anything,” he said. Harre farms with his family in Washington County, in rural Nashville. Wilra Farms is a combination 400-cow dairy and grain farm that currently is operated by two generations of Harres. Nick and his brother, Clint; their cousins, Lucas and Matt; Nick and Clint’s father, Doug; and Doug’s brother, Curt; and their three farm employees operate the farm. Nick, Clint, Lucas and Matt are the fifth generation 16 Summer 2022

throughout Illinois, Harre and his family have faced weather challenges in getting corn and full-season soybeans This spring has been a chalplanted. They were further lenge. We’re probably halfway delayed by mechanical issues there on corn planting. Full that made them turn to a new season soybeans, those are all in planting style. the ground. Typically everything “We have one planter, so would be in the ground and out convention has typically been We got the hay put up. We were of the ground by this time of to get the corn in the ground able to get all the manure knifed year. We are definitely several first, especially with having in, so we have manure storage weeks behind. the cows. We need to make now for the summer. You just sure we get the corn silage Thankfully, we’ve been able to planted early. Our main tillget stuff that’s absolutely neces- have to roll with the punches. age tractor went down and Nick Harre sary done. You’d like to have all it was more than we could NASHVILLE, ILL. the corn planted by now, but at repair. It looked like we weren’t going to have that tractor at all this spring, so delicate balance, especially as of the family to farm. The after about half of the corn the family gets extended. My farm raises corn, soybeans, was in, we decided to switch wheat, alfalfa and other silage generation is me, my brother to beans and no-till beans crops and they currently milk and cousins. We’re all having this year, which we don’t norkids, too, so you start looking 460 Holstein cows, sending mally do. But we decided to at what the next generation is the milk to Prairie Farms for try to no-till the beans in and going to be like,” he said. processing. use the other tractor to put Harre and his wife, Andrea, on anhydrous, then, when it Harre said each member of who teaches seventh grade the team has their own spewas done with anhydrous, math at Franklin Park Middle make it the tillage tractor,” cialty area of focus. “Each person has kind of School in Salem, have a son, Harre said. their own niche. When you Declan, 2, and they are exHaving a lot of hungry get a lot of family involved, I pecting their second child in Holstein mouths to feed think that’s probably the best right on the farm means that November. way to make it work. It’s a putting up feed to keep the Like many farmers

Roll with the punches

least we got enough corn in the ground that we know we’re going to have feed for the coming year.

cows fed throughout the year is the priority. To that end, Harre and his family have tried out different kinds of crops to chop for silage. This year, triticale and pearl millet are in the mix. “First cutting hay was done a couple of weeks ago. We got that off in a pretty timely fashion and that was in good shape, not much weevil damage. We also then put up triticale and got that chopped two weeks ago,” Harre said. Pearl millet is a drought-re-

sistant silage crop that also is highly digestible. “We are able to get three cuttings throughout the summer. It’s highly digestible and it’s more water efficient than corn or even hay is. It’s a bit of an insurance feed throughout the summer. You know you are going to get something should a drought hit,” Harre said.

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18 Summer 2022

FEDERAL RESERVE SURVEY

Thin margins amid economic growth By Tom C. Doran

AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

CHICAGO — The trend of slight to moderate economic growth continues across the Federal Reserve districts. Survey-based findings of the current economic temperature were reported in the Beige Book released on June 1, based on information collected on or before May 23. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic conditions in its district through reports from bank and branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by businesses, community organizations, economists, market experts and other sources. Here are the agriculture-related comments from districts in the Corn Belt. CHICAGO “Farm net income expectations for 2022 were little changed overall during the reporting period, as prices and costs increased by similar amounts. Corn, soybean and wheat prices were all up, as were prices for diesel and propane,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Cool, wet weather slowed spring planting for corn

and soybeans. In addition, concerns lingered about whether fertilizer would arrive at farms on time. Strong dairy exports helped boost milk prices. Bird flu continued to ravage poultry farms, pushing up egg prices. Hog prices moved sideways, while cattle prices were lower. As with crop farmers, livestock producers also faced higher input costs. Agricultural land prices continued to rise strongly. The Chicago district includes the northern two-thirds of Illinois and Indiana, all of Iowa, the southern two-thirds of Wisconsin and Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. ST. LOUIS Agriculture conditions in the 8th Federal Reserve District have improved slightly since the previous report. Contacts reported thin margins despite increased commodity prices due to rising input and labor costs, but remain optimistic due to persistent high demand. Contacts noted that rising energy prices have created an unprecedented opportunity for alternative energy products and other new technologies in the sector. The percentage of row crops planted has increased since the previous reporting period, but is down from

this time in 2021. Progress of acres planted is down this year for every crop and all states in the district, which reflects production issues due to staffing and supply chain concerns. The St. Louis Federal Reserve District includes the southern parts of Illinois and Indiana and eastern half of Missouri, as well as parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi. MINNEAPOLIS The 9th Federal Reserve District agricultural conditions remained strong. According to the first-quarter survey of agricultural credit conditions, 87% of respondents reported increased farm incomes relative to the same period a year earlier. Farmland values increased briskly. However, due to an exceptionally cold and wet spring, crop planting and progress were well behind schedule in much of the district, except for Montana and western portions of the Dakotas, where drought conditions were rampant. The Minneapolis-based district includes all of Minnesota, the Dakotas and Montana, the northern one-third of Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

KANSAS CITY “Agricultural commodity prices remained at multiyear highs, providing ongoing tailwinds to the 10th Federal Reserve District farm economy. Market conditions remained favorable for prices of all major commodities in the region and prices of wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton and cattle increased modestly from the previous month,” the Beige Book reported. Farm income and credit conditions also improved further during the most recent survey period. However, contacts expected conditions to soften slightly in the coming months and many cited concerns about rising input costs, broad inflationary pressures and severe drought. The western and southern portions of the region have been most exposed to drought, affecting wheat, hay and grazing conditions that could reduce profit opportunities for both crop and livestock producers in those areas. The Kansas City district includes the western part of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado and the northern New Mexico. Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-410-2256 or tdoran@shawmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @AgNews_Doran.

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20 Summer 2022

War hits oil, grain markets Fed Reserve Bank reports on impact By Tom C. Doran

AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had swift and substantial effects on commodity markets that could be long-lasting, according to Federal Reserve Bank researchers. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City researchers Cortney Cowley, senior economist; David Rodziewicz, senior economist specialist; and Thomas R. Cook, data scientist, released their findings May 23. “Disruptions associated with the invasion have contributed to increases in commodity prices, which could support commodity-producing regions and businesses. However, higher prices for agricultural inputs,

energy and food have created additional challenges for net-importing regions, supply chains and consumers,” the researchers stated. The report was issued following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s world supply and demand estimates that included a look at the potential impact of war in Ukraine to production and trade. USDA reduced Ukraine corn exports by 550 million bushels. Ukrainian wheat production is forecast at 21.5 million tons in 2022-2023, 11.5 million lower than last year due to the ongoing war. Ukraine’s wheat export forecast is 10 million tons, down sharply from last year’s 19 million tons on reduced production and significant logistical constraints for exports. Here are highlights of the research. Historical monthly oil, wheat price movements: The average price of oil increased 18%

from February to March, which was one of the more significant monthly increases on record. The surge in the price of wheat was perhaps even more historically significant. Wheat prices increased 29% in March, which was among the highest price increases over the past century. Other price escalations of this magnitude had not occurred since the oil embargo and Russian grain deal of the 1970s or the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Oil, farm production expenses: Although costs associated with extracting oil rose sharply in 2021, the pace of increase accelerated in 2022, rising almost 60% through the first quarter. Other costs associated with oil production, such as parts and equipment, well services and wages, were stagnant or declining in the previous four years, but rose in the first

quarter of 2022. Farm production expenses, which had already been on the rise, increased even more sharply in the first quarter. Most notably, fertilizer and diesel expenses rose 90% and 60%, respectively, from the previous year in February. Feed expenses also climbed 15% alongside higher prices for grains and oilseeds. Profit opportunities for U.S. producers: Although the costs of producing crude oil rose from $48 a barrel in 2020 to $62 a barrel in the first quarter of 2022, oil prices rose faster, creating wider profit margins for energy producers. Unlike in 2020, in the first months of 2022, the average price of oil was $95 a barrel., or 53% higher than the profitable price. Similarly, although production expenses for wheat farmers have increased, prices See WAR page 22 Ag Mag 21

War

and wheat rose 23% and 36%, respectively. Although futures prices for FROM PAGE 21 these commodities declined slightly through April, they producers receive for their are still elevated compared wheat were higher than the with pre-invasion. costs of production, creating Additionally, forecasts better opportunities for posifor energy and agricultural tive profit margins. commodities in 2022 also Consumer prices: Inflation increased, suggesting higher in several energy and food prices through the end of the categories in the first four year. months of 2022 was well Global inventories: Limited above longer-term trends. In inventories of energy and ag particular, prices increased products prior to the conflict in major categories like gasalso contributed to the recent oline and cereals, but also in surge in prices. Inventories smaller categories like home provide a buffer to supply heating and pet food. shocks, so commodity marGasoline and food account kets are less able to absorb for 15% to 21% of total household expenditures in the the disruption emanating United States. Consumers pur- from the Ukrainian conflict chase gasoline and food more while inventories are low or declining. often than other goods, and Entering 2022, world petroprice increases in these prodleum and wheat inventories ucts can have a significant were almost 10% below the effect on household budgets previous five-year average. and inflation expectations. Declining global petroleum Futures prices: Futures inventories have been driven markets suggest commodity by underinvestment in global prices may remain high even oil production during the toward the end of 2022. In less than two weeks following pandemic and a resurgence Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, of demand as economies recover and reopen. futures prices for crude oil

Lower wheat inventories were driven by strong global demand, lower planted area in the United States and adverse weather conditions in other parts of the world, which limited production. Commodity production, exports: Russia is the world’s third largest producer of crude oil and second largest producer of natural gas, accounting for 11% of global oil production and almost 18% of natural gas production. Although Ukraine is not a major producer of energy commodities, Russia and Ukraine produce and export large quantities of agricultural products, such as wheat and corn. Russia and Ukraine combined are the second largest producers of wheat in the world, after China, and export more wheat globally than any other country, accounting for about 29% of global wheat exports. Global commodity price increases: Countries with direct trade exposures to Russia and Ukraine have experienced the most substantial increases in prices in the immediate after-

math of the invasion. For example, natural gas prices in the European Union have increased 665% from the previous year in March, whereas U.S. natural gas prices have increased about 85%. Although natural gas production is distributed across the globe, markets are primarily regional. For example, more than 70% of Russian gas exports go to Europe, and Russian imports make up roughly 40% of the EU’s consumption. In addition, 90% of Russian wheat exports and about 55% of wheat exports from Ukraine are typically destined for countries in Africa, the Middle East, or the EU. Therefore, wheat prices in the EU and in countries such as South Africa and Turkey rose even more sharply than wheat prices in the United States, which does not traditionally trade agricultural commodities with Russia or Ukraine. Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-410-2256 or tdoran@shawmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @AgNews_Doran.

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Ag Mag 23

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24 Summer 2022

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