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DEFINE YOUR SUCCESS WITH US AT COMPEER.COM/YOU OR CALL (844) 426-6733 Ag of rain in two days, Lake Bluff had 6 inches in six hours and Seneca got 6 inches in three hours,” Ford said.

“These are the events we’re seeing more frequently.”

Receiving 5-plus inches of rain in six hours, the state climatologist said, will flood almost anyone’s field.

“Anything over 2 inches in less than 12 hours will result in standing water,” he said. “Above the 4-inch mark will cause standing water that’s running even off the healthiest soils on the flattest ground.”

Even the nuisance rainfall events that keep farmers out of the field or cause farmers to replant crops are increasing in frequency, Ford said.

“These patterns are becoming more frequent and likely will continue to increase,” he said.

There will be variability in rainfall amounts.

“We may go an entire year without an intense rainfall event in northern Illinois,” Ford said. “I think it’s doubtful, but it could happen.”

More intense rainfall events cause problems like runoff.

“Heavier rainfall produces more runoff because the same amount of rain in a shorter period more intensely results in less return to the soil,” Ford said.

“That creates problems with soil erosion and nutrient runoff and both issues are economic problems because you have to replace the nutrients and the soil you can’t replace.”

In 1989, Ford said, a five-year storm in one hour resulted in 1.75 inches of rainfall.

“A five-year storm today produces 2.2 inches of rain in an hour,” Ford said.

“Over 100 acres that produces a peak runoff that’s 6 to 7 cubic feet per second higher and about 200,000 more gallons running off that field with a tremendous amount of additional energy,” he said. “So, there is more energy to dig deeper in the soil to carry those nutrients and soil with it.”

Last year was a weird year in northern Illinois, Ford said.

“In this area there were 18 to 20 days with measurable rainfall, but still this area was about a quarter of an inch drier,” he said. “It rained just enough to keep you out of the field, but it was not giving you a lot of moisture.”

The goal is to get rain down into the deeper layer of soil.

“Ideally you want to get the water to the tile system if you have excess moisture without carrying a lot of nutrients in your soil with it,” Ford said.

“You want the water off the top couple inches of soil, but you also want to get the water down to the deeper layer where the crop can use it later in the growing season.”

Drought is a complicated topic, Ford said, when it comes to changing rainfall rates.

“Overall our risk of long-term drought carrying from one growing season to another is decreasing,” Ford said. “Since the 1970s and 1980s we’ve had pretty prolonged periods of wetness.”

“You have to go back to the 1960s where we carried drought into multiple, consecutive growing seasons,” he said. “That doesn’t mean we don’t see drought impacts or we won’t get drought in the future, but it’s likely it won’t be as persistent.”

As summers continue to warm, evaporation is increasing.

“In Rockford, the trend for evaporation is about a half-inch increase per decade,” Ford said. “Over four decades, we’re now evaporating 2 inches more of water out of the soil, so that means even with additional rainfall this could cause drought issues a little faster.”

For example, in the Champaign County last year it went from no drought around Memorial Day to severe drought by Independence Day.

“We got a half inch rain in June and 6 inches of evaporation,” Ford said. “What happened in June in Champaign is not a climate change effect. It’s natural weather variability. We missed the storms.”

With more rain events, farmers need to watch for increased fungal diseases in their crops like tar spot.

“Tar spot is well correlated with leaf wetness,” Ford said. “Humidity makes a welcoming environment for fungal diseases.”

Northern Illinois had a pretty significant dry spell in 2021.

“Yet it was still humid outside because the flow from the Gulf of Mexico was working fine,” the state climatologist said. “There was dry soil with humid air on top of it, so we still needed a lot of fungal disease management.”

The increasing and more intensive rainfall events in Illinois makes decisions about soil and water management more important, Ford said.

“Environmental sustainability is important, but sustainability is also economic,” he said. “You need to make decisions to be both profitable and environmentally friendly.”

Martha Blum can be reached at 815410-2254, or mblum@shawmedia. com. Follow her on Twitter at: @AgNews_Blum.