Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2024/25

Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2024/25 (1st October 2024 – 30th September 2025)

February 2024

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HEADER TEXT Contents 1. Licence obligation to publish a draft statement of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement ........................................................................................................................ 3 2. Determining the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2024/2025 .... 3 3. Conclusion and Recommendation .................................................................................. 4

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HEADER TEXT 1. Licence obligation to publish a draft statement of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement As per licence condition 2.19.2 of the Evolve conveyance licence, Evolve book and hold exit capacity on the Postalised Transmission Network for all Suppliers who operate within our Licenced Area.

The licence requires Evolve to hold capacity to meet the daily firm demand from network consumers on a 1 in 20 peak day.

To facilitate the determination of the required capacity, the licence requires Evolve to produce and publish an annual draft statement of its best estimate of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for the following Gas Year and to consult interested parties. A draft network capacity statement was issued in January 2024 inviting interested parties to make representations on the content.

As per the Northern Ireland Network Gas Transmission Code, Evolve may revise the amount of capacity booked and held on the Postalised Transmission Network during the Gas Year.

2. Determining the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2024/2025 To determine the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for the Evolve network we have considered a number of factors including current network development, forecast future connections and the level of temperature dependent load (current and future).

Alongside this we look at historic volume data and temperature data to determine a sufficient amount of Exit Capacity for the daily firm demand from network consumers on a 1 in 20 peak day.

Network Development Evolve was awarded the distribution conveyance licence on 11th February 2015 for the Gas to the West project to develop low pressure gas infrastructure to convey gas to the towns specified within the licence.

The first phase of the project, which is the development of the gas network in Strabane, is complete with gas flowing to the first customer in January 2017. The network in Strabane was further expanded since 2017 and additional phases of the overall Gas to the West network were commissioned in July and December 2019. This development and the continued gas network expansion has been assessed to calculate the capacity requirement for connected customers during Gas Year 2024/25.

1 in 20 Peak Day Demand The forecast 1 in 20 peak day demand for Gas to the West network for Gas Year 2024/25 is based on our current network development plan – i.e., the forecast number and 3

HEADER TEXT category of gas connections and the corresponding estimate of gas use by those consumers. While historical weather data has been considered as part of the forecasting process, the impact of this is limited. This is due to the relatively low level of heat dependant load connected to the network currently and the additional load expected to be connected during Gas Year 2024/25.

Our current actual capacity booking held with GMO NI is 3,500 MWh. Based on the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement and corresponding daily firm exit capacity for Gas Year 2024/25, Evolve forecast that a booking of 3,500 MWh will be required at the beginning of Gas Year 24/25. We forecast this booking will need to be increased to 3,961 MWh during the Gas Year to facilitate additional connections to the network during this period. The booking amount will be monitored on a monthly basis and incrementally increased as required.

This estimate is reflective of consumption patterns of existing connections, the current build schedule and projected network growth under the GD23 Price Control. Should there be any amendments to our build plan or any amendments to the connection timescales, we will adjust the amount of capacity booked and held. It is our intention to book exit capacity for 1 year.

3. Conclusion and Recommendation The methodology used to produce this draft statement of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2024/25 is considered fit for purpose.

Therefore, Evolve recommends an initial booking of 3,500 MWh, increasing to 3,961 MWh of firm daily exit capacity during Gas Year 2024/25 to facilitate additional connections to the network in line with the build plan.

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