Grain Update

Mark White Grain Division Manager

Most of our area saw decent planting conditions this spring as most of the crops got planted in a timely manner. The weather played with us as we saw a great start in early April with warm and dry ground conditions. Then we went backwards temperature wise for about 10 days and many people were somewhat confused how to proceed. In the end it appears most of the stands are above average and the fields are evening out as the crop has rooted down. Now we need to put some thought and effort into what we will do with this year’s crop. Some of you still have old crops to market. Basis levels for old corn and beans are still better than normal at this time of year. However there has been a big inverse in board pricing ever since last fall. The spreads have been led by the nearby month in both corn and beans which is causing grief among the end users. Recently most of the interior terminals we deal with have rolled their corn bids to the September contract, and bean bids to the August contract. When doing so they kept about 14 cents of the basis. They may have to give some of this back if sellers get stubborn about selling. It will be the normal give and take of the game and the farmer will end up in the middle as always. New crop bids are discouraging when you compare them to the prices, we have been receiving for the past 2 years. Weather will be the major driver in price discovery in the coming weeks. The USDA still predicts record yields for both corn and soybeans and in order to achieve this we need perfect weather throughout the corn belt and beyond. May was one of the driest Mays on record and though it is nice to plant into dry dirt, it cannot stay dry long term. In order to get these high national yields, the fringe areas need to produce an above average crop, and that doesn’t look likely at this time. World politics and fighting will continue to play a large role as we now deal with a global economy, what we do in America is important, but it is only a piece of the puzzle. Back on new crop pricing, we would all like to sell 6.00 plus corn again this fall. However, it looks like 5.25 might be a good place to start and ramp up sales if the price increases. Today 13.00 beans might be out of reach for fall pricing, but 12.00 is a possibility and would be a starting place. As always, we would be glad to visit with anyone about their grain marketing. We do not have all the answers, but we feel we know the right questions to ask and can assist you in making some decisions.