PREDICTED ATAR SCENARIOS

Seton Catholic College uses the ATAR predictor engine which makes predictions based on the last 5 years of Seton data. Its takes into consideration how Seton students' scores have been moderated and scaled in the last 5 years across the courses we offer. Moderation is the process whereby a student’s mark from school is compared with their mark from the SCSA ATAR exam and with the rest of the students doing that course in their school and beyond. Their final combined score (school mark & ATAR exam mark) can be adjusted up or down. Different courses are then scaled as not all courses are seen as equal (70 in Outdoor Education is not seen as the same as a 70 in Physics). The example below shows how final scores might be moderated and scaled (adjusted score).

The table below shows the final predicted ATAR rank with scores of 55% across all courses

At ATAR level a pass is not enough in each course to achieve a useful ATAR rank In more challenging courses it may be acceptable, however, not in some of the most popular and widely chosen courses An ATAR rank of 55 would mean a student does not gain direct entry into university In this case, the student would need to complete a bridging course in Year 13 (the year post school)

Our analysis of years of data on student performance and student counselling has shown a student tracking at a predicted ATAR of 70 or below needs to improve or consider another option at the end of Year 11. These predictions do not include the impact of the ATAR exam. If a predicted ATAR of 70 or below is coupled with below average exam results the final ATAR rank could be much lower.