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PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONIZATION

Australia’s per capita GHG emissions are among the highest in the world, above that of the United States and other European countries.

Failure to prevent a 2C warming could lead to catastrophic destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and a significant increase in the incidence of heat-related deaths Between 1990 and 2010 Australia’s emissions increased by around 30%.

An 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 is possible by action in three key areas: land use (by boosting reforestation efforts), energy efficiency, and low-carbon electricity

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Average global per capita emissions need to be 1.7 tonnes to keep warming within 2C; current per capita emissions in Canada are 21 tonnes.

Unwinding subsidies for the oil and gas sector and a hybrid carbonpricing system are key policies to support decarbonization in Canada.

A gradually rising carbon tax ought to be introduced, starting at CDN $50 by 2020 and rising $10 incrementally each month, with funds being recycled half to lower income households and half to lower corporate income taxes.

Canada has pledged a 30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.

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Because of rapid economic growth, carbon emissions per capita have nearly quadrupled since 1990, but still remain much lower than average emissions in rich countries.

China’s rapid increase in energy consumption has predominantly come from coal, which is a cheap fuel but pollutes the local environment and harms health.

Ongoing urbanization and industrialization in China mean it expects its energy use to grow considerably – by 2030, an additional 330m people will into urban areas.

The decarbonization of the economy stems from huge, planned improvements in energy efficiency (reduction in energy intensity of 73% by 2050) and in decarbonizing electricity (91% fall in electricity emissions intensity by 2050).

China has pledged it will peak its emissions by 2030 and that its carbon intensity will fall 60-65% over the same period.

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Low emission scenarios include the adoption of a carbon tax, ranging between â‚Ź90-120 per ton of CO2 in 2030 and â‚Ź280-360/ton in 2050.

By 2030, GHG emissions are to be cut by 40%; 75% by 2050, all compared to 1990 levels.

Recognizing the benefit of promoting energy-saving techniques, France aims to reduce demand for energy by 50% by 2050, based on 2012 levels.

The share of nuclear in overall electricity generation is projected to decrease to 50% by 2025, from roughly 75% today, while the share of renewables will jump up to 32% by 2030.

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Germany aims for a 80-95% reduction in GHG by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, one of the most ambitious goal across all countries. From 1990 and 2014, emissions have been reduced by 27%.

Electricity demand is expected to be reduced dramatically by 2050: 40-47% lower than 2010 levels, mostly through improvements in efficiency and behavioral changes.

Germany plans for a substantial uptake in the share of electric vehicles being used, from current market share of near zero percent to between 50-80% by 2050.

By 2050, the majority of electricity generation will be derived from wind (on and offshore), with nuclear energy being phased out in all scenarios.

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For India, the eradication of poverty remains a top priority; deep decarbonization is not expected to come at the expense of economic growth.

Electricity generation and energy demand are projected to grow rapidly as electricity infrastructure expands and people become wealthier.

Key to India’s reduction in emissions is to achieve decarbonization of the electricity sector. The government target is to reduce carbon dioxide intensity of electricity.

Coal is, and will remain, the biggest contributor to CO2 emissions in India; therefore, long-term efforts into carbon capture and storage (CCS) are being encouraged.

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Almost one half of Indonesia’s GHG emissions come from land use, land use change, and forestry.

The energy sector is responsible for around one-third of Indonesia’s emissions, and will continue to grow in the future as the country develops.

Low emission strategies revolve around three pillars: enhanced energy efficiency, decarbonisation of electricity generation, and switching to low-carbon fuels.

This can be achieved while still maintaining economic growth of between 5.4-5.8% per year.

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Compared to neighbouring EU countries, coal forms a smaller portion of its electricity generation, but Italy still relies heavily on imported fuels.

Italy aims for a 96% reduction in emissions by from power generation in 2050 compared to the 2010 level.

Renewables are expected capture a growing share of power generation each year, reaching a high level above 90% by mid-century.

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Japan has the target of reducing emissions by 80% in 2050 and to reduce its dependence on nuclear power.

Overarching objective is to reduce per capita emissions of CO2 from current levels of 8.8 tons per capita to 2.1 tons per capita by mid-century.

This requires a large reduction in energy demand by increasing energy efficiency and increasing the share of low-carbon energies.

Total final energy consumption in 2050 is projected to be half of the 2010 level.

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Mexico is a growing economy, and energy consumption has been steadily growing in the past two decades at an annualized rate of 2.5% -- this trend will continue until mid-century.

Approximately 60% of current emissions originate from the combustion of fossil fuels.

A low emission strategy depends on better energy efficiency across all sectors, rapid deployment of carbon capture & storage (CCS) technologies and zero-emission vehicles, and the development of smart grids.

The long term goal of the country is to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050 based on 2000 levels.

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A challenge for the country is how to lower emissions while still maintaining a growing economy; GDP is expected to increase by around 170% between 2010 and 2050, with large decreases in the poverty rate.

The electricity sector currently accounts for just under half of all total greenhouse gas emissions.

Lower emissions can be achieved through the phasing out of coalfired generation, replacing it with a large introduction of photovoltaic solar and concentrated solar power, as well as wind.

Key to reducing emissions for South Africa is the gradual increase in the share of renewables and biomass in contributing to the overall primary energy supply of the country by 2050, to replace the current large share currently held by coal.

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82% of current emissions in the UK are related to fuel combustion, presenting one main target area for reducing future emissions.

The UK aims to reduce emissions from power generation between 80-95% by 2030, relative to current levels.

Given immediate policy steps, it is possible to reduce emissions by 80% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels.: Achieving these reductions requires developing lowcarbon technologies, such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS); such technologies are to be supported by the right policies to help investors.

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PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONIZATION The long-term target set by the US government is to reduce emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 and lower CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, dropping to a level of 1.7 tons per capita by 2050.

Low emission strategies will greatly affect the structure and characteristics of the energy economy in the US, with the majority of energy costs going to the set-up of low-carbon infrastructure.

These strategies foresee fossil fuel use decreasing by nearly twothirds by mid-century, with decarbonized energy supplies expanding by a factor of four or five.

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