CROSSROADS

By Anne Manning Redstone Review

FORT COLLINS – Colorado State University hurricane researchers have intensified their forecast and now predict a well above average Atlantic hurricane season in 2022. The odds of El Niño for this year’s hurricane season are now quite low, and the odds of La Niña conditions have increased relative to what was projected with the initial outlook in early April.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are now warmer than normal, while the eastern Atlantic is much warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration is considered quite favorable for an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions: that is, the water temperatures there are somewhat below average. CSU researchers anticipate that these waters will likely remain slightly (e.g., cool neutral ENSO) to somewhat below normal (e.g., La Niña) for the Atlantic hurricane season.

The scientists believe that El Niño is extremely unlikely this year. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The tropical Atlantic currently is warmer than normal, while the eastern Atlantic from the subtropics to the midlatitudes is much warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 20 named storms in 2022. Of those, researchers expect 10 to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. This forecast is an increase from the early April outlook which predicted 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The team bases its forecasts on statistical models, including three models that use a combination of statistical information and forecasts from dynamical models from the U.K. Meteorological Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. These models are built on 25 to 40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions including: Atlantic sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, vertical wind shear (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.

So far, the 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 and 2021. “1996, 1999, 2008 and 2021 had above-average activity, while 2000 and 2011 had near-average activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

The team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 145 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2021’s hurricane activity was about 120 percent of the average season. The 2021 hurricane season had eight continental U.S. named storm and two continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. The CSU team will issue forecast updates on August 4. This is the 39th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued an Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The Tropical Meteorology Project team also includes Michael Bell, professor in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science, and Alex DesRosiers, graduate research assistant in the same department. Bill Gray, who originated the seasonal forecasts, launched the report in 1984 and continued to author them until his death in 2016.

The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season –not an exact measure.

As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall, including a 76 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent), a 51 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent), a 50 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida

panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent), and a 65 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent).

The forecast team also provides probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of each county or parish along the Gulf and U.S. East Coast, as well as hurricane-prone coastal states, Mexican states, Canadian provinces and countries in Central America and the Caribbean. These probabilities for regions and countries are adjusted based on the current seasonal forecast and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season.

Anne Manning works in the News and Media Relations Dept. at Colorado State University in Fort Collins.

Summertime fun at LaVern Johnson Park.

PHOTO BY CATHY RIVERS

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sion on whether to accept a proposal from Spirit Hound Distillers to take a cash payment of $26,000 in lieu of two water shares which Spirit Hound owes to the town for its increased water use.

Spirit Hound, 4196 Ute Hwy., expanded its production, which increased its water use from a ¾-inch water tap to a 1inch water tap; this then required the purchase of two water shares owed to Lyons. As a business, Spirit Hound is allowed to use Lake McIntosh water shares which are cheaper than the Colorado Big Thompson (CBT) water shares normally used for water share dedication. The Lake McIntosh shares are about $13,000 per share or a little less.

Neil Sullivan, one of the owners of Spirit Hound, said that he was not able to find any water share brokers who had only two shares of water to sell.

The board discussed the matter and decided to accept the “cash in lieu of shares” offer and then purchase one share of water when it came available and put the rest of the money in the water fund.

• Personalized Responsive Service from an Experienced & Dedicated Arborist • All Phases of Tree & Shrub Pruning & Removal • Licensed & Insured

✔ Water & Sewer

✔ Mold Testing

✔ Hail & Storm Damage ✔ Structural Drying ✔ Wood Floor Drying

clude these five no-cost or low-cost programs: Lyons Community Food Pantry, Lyons Meals on Wheels, Basic Needs & Resource Matching, Mental Wellness & Addiction Recovery and Lyons Volunteers. The LEAF teams have been busy every day, bringing help and hope to people through these services. We want to offer a heartfelt thank you to those in the community who have responded to the call to support LEAF’s work in this season. Your donations of dollars and food are muchneeded and greatly appreciated. Here is the unique situation: We are grateful to report that new families are coming to the Pantry each week (No shame, just come), but this also means that LEAF needs to purchase or receive more food than ever.

The source for most of our donated Food Pantry supplies, Community Food Share, hasn’t been able to provide meat, or sufficient bread or produce for weeks now because of supply chain issues. Our team scours sales to source these items, but we are all aware that prices are high. In fact, Pantry leaders recently spent $1,104.88 in one week just to keep the Pantry stocked for local people who need food. This level of need far outpaces LEAF’s budget. We recently learned that even nonperishables like pasta, tomato sauce, canned foods, beans, and more will be unavailable now, too.

We have all heard that the rising costs of living are hitting home for many people across our country, and this reality is no different in Lyons. Requests for help from our Basic Needs & Resource Matching program are up, too. In fact, in the month of June, LEAF provided the same amount of direct financial assistance as was needed for all of the previous months this year combined. Primarily, households are struggling with utilities or rent, as they see more and more dollars going for food, gas, and increased housing costs. LEAF directly served 264 local people in the first quarter of this year, and we expect second quarter trends to look very similar. This is a lot of help and hope, in the form of food, mental health care, and housing, utilities, and transportation support.

Unfortunately, individual and business giving has been way down so far this entire year. LEAF is a community-based organization, and we do depend on our community’s generosity to continue providing local human services. If you are able to share, please consider donating to LEAF. If you are a business leader, please consider joining our corporate giving family of LEAF Believers. LEAF is a communitybased organization, and we want to ensure LEAF is available and ready to serve every day, in every season.

So what can you do? • If you are able to give financially, please do so on our website (leaflyons.org), or mail a check, or stop by with a donation on Wednesdays between 9:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. Your gift will allow us to source protein and produce, and to take advantage of sales and discounted food items. • If you are able to donate food, please do so. Currently, we need snacks (chips, crackers, cookies), tomato products (sauce, paste, rotel, Manwich), pickles, mayo, pasta, cereal, baked beans, canned meals (ravioli, chili, stew, hash). You can drop food off at LEAF on Wednesdays between 9:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. We are in the lower level of Lyons Community Church, 350 Main Street. • If you need help or hope in the form of food, community, mental health care, or other human services assistance, reach out. No shame, just come. Visit our website at leaflyons.org to learn more about what we do. Or stop by any Wednesday afternoon. Indeed, there is plenty of help and hope happening at LEAF every day, this summer, and year ‘round. LEAF isn’t just an organization. LEAF is people. Whether you are a donor, a volunteer, or a participant, we are grateful for you. You are the heart of LEAF, and we love growing healthy community with you. If you have questions or want to learn more, please email me at lory@leaflyons.org, or stop in on a Wednesday afternoon.

LYONS! Classic ‘30s 2-story on a spacious lot backing up to the Lyons Elementary School playground. The home is substantially remodeled and features a kitchen open to the living and dining areas, new carpet, main floor master, and a partially finished basement. Mature yard includes towering trees, storage shed, chicken coop, and beautiful landscaping—an amazing entertaining space! South-facing sandstone deck + a shaded north-facing private deck off of the primary bedroom for the hot summer days. You do not want to miss this one. Adjacent lot available also for $275K.

HOMES CONSTRUCTION HAS BUILT! A truly like-new gem in a fabulous neighborhood near schools, parks, river, and open space! Expansive great room floorplan with plenty of light from the large windows thoughtfully placed throughout. Spacious, remodeled kitchen with quartz countertops, newer appliances and hardwood floors. The generouslysized 1/4 acre lot bordering greenbelt and walk/bike path leading to neighborhood park exudes a feeling of spaciousness and relative privacy.

SALE PENDING DON’T MISS THIS AMAZING OPPORTUNITY TO LIVE IN THIS DESIRABLE LYONS NEIGHBORHOOD! This fantastic cedar-sided, 2-story home is perfectly situated on a quiet, dead-end street and borders open space and local trails. With both a large front and back deck, you have your choice of amazing views! Interior features include 3 bed/3 bath, an additional den/office, wood-burning fireplace, and vaulted ceilings. Attached two-car garage with an additional workshop or studio space in the loft.

LOVELY TOWN OF LYONS! This unbelievably solid home features an open floor plan with soaring ceilings, huge windows framing the amazing views, spacious gourmet kitchen with antique and eclectic cabinetry, + huge luxury master suite. Basement includes family and exercise rooms, 2 bedrooms + bath, ample storage. Fab 60x40 barn/shop, 24x12 loafing shed/tack room, cross-fenced pastures, corral.

DOWNTOWN LYONS! Also known as “Lyons’ Front Porch” where you see and hear what is happening and actively make things happen! Cafe business and all fixtures, furnishings, equipment and inventory is included in price—truly a “turnkey” operation! Huge lot for parking, events, storage, etc. Separate retail space currently rented for $1,000/mo. Loads of outdoor seating with custom stonework and ironwork.

THOMPSON RIVER FRONTAGE! Easy access just 10 minutes from Town of Lyons with all of its highly rated schools, music and art festivals, restaurants, parks and trails. Electricity and shared well at the lot. Views of amazing geological features, river valley, and abundant wildlife! Sunship is a small community sharing a vision of peaceful & sustainable living.

Lory Barton is the Executive Director at LEAF, Lyons Emergency & Assistance Fund. Having previously served with local and international non-profit organizations, she’s glad and grateful to partner with so many at LEAF to change our small corner of the world in the Greater Lyons area.

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gration, which follows two paths on either side of the Rockies. Eastern Colorado sees more of the orange beauties. Still, it’s always worth checking the leaves of a milkweed plant to see if there’s one of the stunning black, white, and yellow striped caterpillars.

Milkweed flowers produce abundant (and non-toxic) nectar to attract pollinators. While adult monarchs certainly feast on milkweed flowers and help pollinate them, so do many other species of butterflies, as well as moths, bees, and hummingbirds.

It’s worth another visit to the milkweeds in the fall to see their pods. When they split open, masses of fluffy seeds tumble out to catch the wind. Milkweed silk is highly buoyant and a good insulator. During WWII, when life vest stuffing materials became unavailable, community-collected milkweed fluff was used instead. Currently, the textile industry is experimenting with milkweed silk as an alternative to down.

Milkweeds make a lovely, bold addition to gardens. Volunteers at the RMBG recently planted dozens of swamp milkweeds (Asclepias incarnata). Stay tuned for perky pink flowers on tall stems next year. The native milkweeds are perennials that die back to the ground each winter. Showy milkweed spreads underground by rhizomes, though not as aggressively as its Eastern cousin the common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca). Swamp milkweed and butterfly weed grow as tidier clumps. Swamp milkweed, unsurprisingly, requires more water than the other species, a good choice for sites with poor drainage or clay.

These are just a few of the many native milkweed species readily available, as plants or seeds. This Asclepias abundance for gardeners is the result of educational efforts to help monarchs by encouraging milkweed planting. Habitat loss and chemical use reduced monarch populations severely over the 20th century, and conservationists are closely monitoring their status today.

Milkweed seeds can be planted outdoors in the fall, as a winter cycle in the ground provides the right signals to encourage sprouting. Their first year, the plants are small and don’t to flower. The second year, and beyond, they come charging out of the ground with a show of flowers and buzzing, flapping, flittering life.

ASCLEPIAS TUBEROSA, BUTTERFLY WEED

Jessie Berta-Thompson studied algae in school, and loves gardening and learning about plants. She has a degree in Biology. She currently serves as Treasurer on the Rocky Mountain Botanic Gardens board and as an Adjunct Researcher at the Denver Botanic Gardens, where she works on the diversity and evolution of Colorado mushrooms.

Tortuga This sweet boy is looking for his new family. Tortuga is a very social boy. He comes running to you when called, loves his big cheeks getting scratched, and will cuddle in your lap for the day. He will thrive in a home where he can shine as the only cat. He has so much love to give. Come in today and set up a visit with this fella. For more information visit our website www.longmonthumane.org or give us a call at 303-772-1232.

More than 200 animals are waiting for forever families at Longmont Humane Society. Visit them at www.longmonthumane.org, and then come meet them at the shelter at 9595 Nelson Road.