Should You Try To Win 60% Or 54%?

Before I get to some ways to try to beat this game, let’s think about what your goal should be. Should you try to win 60% of your 50-50 bets? Or 54%? Or less? Seems like a stupid question. Who doesn’t want to win more often?

But which percentage wins you more overall money?

When I was in grade school, I dreamed of making money betting sports. I’d sit in class and calculate how many bets it would take me to get rich depending on the chances to win each bet. “Okay, if I win 55% of my bets and make 100 bets of $100 each (all at -110 of course), I’ll win $550. But wait, what if I win 2 out of every 3 bets? How hard could that be anyway? I’ll be rich in no time!”

I had a lot to learn. But it wasn’t just that winning 67% of bets was unobtainable. An even more important concept is that winning 67% of your bets is undesirable. How can that be?

The short answer is that if you can identify bets that win 67%, you can also identify bets that win 60% and 55% and 53%. And there will be many, many more of the lower edge ones. Who wants to pass on a 55% bet? No one trying to make money.

Do you want to bet five 67% bets, or five 67% bets plus fifty 55% bets? Including the 55% bets clearly makes you more money, but it also lowers your overall winning percentage.

So what percentage should you go for? Make every bet that you think will show a profit. Every bet that you’re fairly confident has an edge. Whatever your winning percentage is at that point, it’s the right one. As for the guy on the internet claiming he wins 60% of his bets, ask him why he doesn’t bet the 55% winners.