Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard - Sept. 2020

DASHBOARD

9/21/2020

The Road to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks 10 timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic.

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

The Utah economy continues to improve, but has a long way to go.

2

Utah’s Unemployment rate of 4.1% is the second lowest in the country.

Continued weekly

unemployment claims peaked at 126,192 on May 2, 2020 and have now declined for 19 consecutive weeks. Continued claims for the week of September 12, 2020 tallied 35,649, showing the Utah economy still has a long way to go. Average weekly claims in 2019 were 8,856.

This positive news means many furloughed and laid off Utahns are returning to work. Pay close attention, however, as it’s likely during COVID-19 that many Utahns have dropped out of the labor market and are not included in this rate. Economists also warn about estimation difficulties during a pandemic and an economic shock.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 21, 2020 – September 12, 2020 140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

3

Construction employment surges as Leisure and Hospitality suffer.

Job change by industry varies dramatically. Year-over job growth for August 2020 shows the Leisure/ Hospitality industry suffering through a 16.8% contraction and Natural Resources (energy and mining) declining by 11.5%. Utah’s construction industry, which increased by 7.4%, continues to be Utah’s fastest growing major industry over the past 12 months.

Utah Job Change by Industry August 2019 – August 2020 2019 Average

Natural Resources

-11.5% 7.4%

Construction

100,000

-0.9%

Manufacturing

80,000

1.8%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

60,000

-3.9%

Information

40,000

Financial Activities

20,000

Professional/Business Services

0

-1.6%

Total

1.5% -2.6% -0.6%

Education/Health Services 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12

March

April

May

June

July

August

Sept.

3.6%

10.4%

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

NA

2%

0.4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 0%

-2%

0.0%

S A L T-4%L A K E C H A M B E R -6% -8% -10% $1,200

-16.8%

Other Services Government

Unemployment Rate

4%

Leisure/Hospitality Services

3.4% -1.7%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

-1.6%

-7.0%

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Unemployment Rate August 2020

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, August 2020

8.5% 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 4.2% 4.2%

5.0% 5.0%

4.1% 4.1%

11.4% 11.4%

6.7% 6.7%

5.9% 5.9%

6.2% 6.2%

4.8% 4.8%

6.6% 6.6%

6.9% 6.9% 5.7% 5.7%

11.3% 11.3%

6.9% 6.9%

7.4% 7.4%

4.0% 4.0%

13.2% 13.2%

-6.1% -6.1%

U.S. 8.4%

5.6% 5.6%

10.3% 10.3% 8.9% 8.9% 11.0% 6.4% 11.0%6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 7.0% 7.6% 7.0% 7.6% 6.5% 6.5% 8.5% 8.5% 7.4% 6.3% 7.4% 6.3%

6.8% 6.8%

7.4% 7.4%

7.9% 7.9% 7.6% 7.6%

VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ WV WV MD MD DC DC DE DE

5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%

7.4% 7.4%

-9.3% -9.3%

4.8% 4.8% 6.5% 6.5% 11.3% 11.3% 8.1% 8.1% 12.8% 12.8% 10.9% 10.9% 8.9% 8.9% 6.9% 6.9% 8.5% 8.5% 8.9% 8.9%

-9.3% -9.3%

-1.6% -1.6%

-3.4% -3.4%

7.1% to 9.0% 13.0% 9.1% to 13.0%

13.0%+ 13.0%+

-5.4% -5.4% -8.2% -8.2%

-11.3 -11.3

Trade/T

JobGrowth Growth Job -2.0%to to0% 0% -2.0% -2.1%to to-5.0% -5.0% -2.1%

-5.1%toto-8.0% -8.0% -5.1% -8.1%toto-11.0% -11.0% -8.1%

Continued Claims

80,000 4% 60,000 2% 0.4% 0% 0.0% 40,000 -1.6% -2% 20,000 -4% -6% -7.0% 0 -8% 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 April May June July August Sept.

-10% March

6.6% Summit

5.9% 7.6% 3.4% Wasatch Duchesne Utah

8.5% Uintah

-12% 3.6% -14%

10.4%

8.6%

5.3%

5.0% Carbon 3.6% Sanpete

9.8% Grand

$1,000

8.1% Wayne $ Millions

10.1% San Juan

8.5%

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

$998,016,752

$896,628,754 $707,711,597

$749,947,333

$600 $400 $200

Unemployment Rate Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah

$990,732,146

$800

5.6% Kane

2.9%

NA

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - July 2020 $1,200

10.3% Garfield

4.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.6% Emery

4.2% Sevier

4.5%

Unemployment Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US

3.0% Juab

6.3% Piute

Edu

Leisu

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, August 2020

4.8% Box Elder

3.1% Millard

2019 Average

100,000

2.9% Cache 3.3% Rich 4.7% Weber 3.9% Davis 3.2% Morgan 4.3% Dagget 4.9% Salt Lake

-11.1%toto-14.0% -14.0% -11.1% -14%orormore more -14%

Professi

120,000

Utah Unemployment Rate August 2020

4.9% Washington

-7.7% -12.2% -7.7% -12.2% -10.2% -10.2% -8.3% -5.8% -8.3% -3.7% -5.8% -3.7% -7.9% -7.1% -10.8% -7.9% -7.1% VTVT-10.8% -3.5% -3.5% -8.0% NH-8.0% -5.4% NH -4.5% -5.4% -4.8% -4.5% -4.8% -6.3% -6.3% MA -10.6% -6.9% MA -10.6% -6.9% -4.7% -4.7% -6.9% CTCT-6.9% -4.6% -3.6% -4.7% -4.6% -4.7% -3.6% -7.3% RIRI-7.3% -2.7% -2.7% -4.2% -9.1% NJNJ-9.1% -4.2%-4.2% -4.2% -6.9% WV-6.9% -4.9% WV -4.9% -6.8% -6.4% MD-6.4% -6.8% MD -6.7% DC-6.7% DC -5.1% -5.1% -8.8% DEDE-8.8%

-4.5% -4.5%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 140,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.7% Iron

-8.9% -8.9%

-16.3% -16.3%

Unemployment Unemployment Rate 0% to 4.9% 5.0% to 7.0%

4.0% Beaver

-6.8% -7.3% -6.8% -7.3%

-6.9% -6.9%

12.5%

4.8% Tooele

U.S. -7.0%

-4.6% -4.6% -0.5% -0.5%

12.5% 12.5%

8.7% 8.7%

6.0% 6.0%

-7.3% -7.3%

10.3%

7.7%

0

Mar-20 5.6% Total

Apr-20 7.4% Residential

5.0%

May-20 Jun-20 6.9%Jul-20 Nonresidential Other

-7

6.2%

4.2% 4.8% 12.5% 6.6% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 8.7% 6.0% 10.3% 4.0% VT 4.8% 13.2% 8.9% 11.0%6.4% 4.1% NH 6.5% 6.7% R O A D M A P T O R E C O V E R Y C O A L I11.3% TIO 6.9% 6.1% 11.4% MA 7.0% 7.6% CT 8.1% 6.5% 8.5% 5.9% 5.7% 7.4% RI 12.8% 6.3% 11.3% NJ 10.9% 5.6% 5.6%

N

-9.3

2,483,505 2,006,725Airport Passengers SLC International 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 3,000,000 January 2,500,0002019 - July 2020 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 874,975 874,975 176,524 176,524 874,975

1,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1,000,000 500,000

176,524

Jan-19 Jan-19Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20

0 500,000 0

$4,500 $4,500 $4,000 Utah Taxable Retail Sales (millions) $4,000 $4,500 January 2019 - June 2020 $3,500 $3,500 $4,000 $2,453 $3,000 $2,453 $3,000 $3,500 $2,500 $2,453 $2,500 $3,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,500 $500 $500 $1,000 $0 $0 $500

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2019 - August 2020

Cumulative Case Fatality Rate March 15, 2020 - September 6, 2020

800 600 600

599 599

899

628 628 628

599

600 400 400

200 0 0 0

Jan-19 Jan-19Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19Apr-19 May-19 May-19May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20Apr-20 May-20 May-20May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20Aug-20

400 200 200

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Downtown SLC Snapshot

Workforce

23% of downtown SLC office workers are working from their offices this week.

Restaurants/Bars

135 restaurants and bars offering take-out and/or dine-in service—a slight increase since August 7 and up 69% since May 12 (75 open).

$3,633

7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1%

3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/5/204/5/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 5/3/20 5/3/205/3/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 6/7/206/7/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 7/5/20 7/5/207/5/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 8/2/20 8/2/208/2/20 8/9/20 8/9/208/9/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 9/6/20 9/6/209/6/20

1,000 800 800

899 899

$3,832

$3,633 $3,633

$0

0

1,000 1,000

$3,832 $3,832

Jan-19 Jan-19Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20Jun-20

3,000,000 3,000,000

0%

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Cumulative Case Case Fatality Fatality Rate Rate Utah Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Department of Health and John Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

Week of September 18, 2020

Visitor Economy

Convention district hotel occupancy at approximately 30% of 2019 levels, a 3% bump up from July 22.

Retail

90% of downtown retail stores are open. Traffic has been growing each week, with a high percentage of shoppers purchasing products.

Source: Downtown Alliance

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

“Utah is leading the country in both health and economic recovery; we must keep working together to ensure we continue to do both!”

“Pandemics do end.

I’m confident we will get through this and emerge even stronger.”

Brandon Fugal , Co-Chair

“The COVID-19 recession places an uneven impact on people, industries and places. Let’s keep working together to rebuild and restore Utah’s full economic diversity and vibrancy for every Utahn.”

Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair

Scott Parson, Co-Chair

Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors Roadmap to Recovery

Protect the Hive Investors

Innovator, Convener and Collaborator Levels

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute