Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard - Oct. 2020

DASHBOARD

October 2020

The Road to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic.

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

2

While COVID-19 cases rise, the cumulative case-fatality rate declines.

Utah’s unemployment rate increases for the first time since April’s peak.

While both Utah and the U.S. have seen an increase in COVID-19 cases over the past several weeks, the cumulative case-fatality rate continues to fall. Utah has a 0.6% case-fatality rate compared to the U.S. rate of 3%. It will be important to watch in the weeks ahead to see if an increase in deaths follows the surge in cases.

Utah’s unemployment rate reached 10% in April 2020 but has declined each month to reach as low as 4.2% in August.

September’s unemployment increased to 5.0%, the first increase since April’s peak. Utah’s ranking also fell to 7th in the nation compared to its rank of 2nd in August and 1st in July.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 21, 2020 – October 10, 2020 140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

3

Utah’s job change nears neutral.

Utah has been seeing a year-over decline in jobs every month since April’s 7% year-over job loss.

September continues to show a decline but of less than 1%. Job growth has continued to improve each month and is nearing neutral.

If the rate of improvement continues, Utah should see overall job growth soon!

Utah Job Change by Industry September 2019 – September 2020 2019 Average

Natural Resources

-11.6% 6.6%

Construction

100,000

-1.2%

Manufacturing

80,000

2.4%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

60,000

-2.2%

Information

40,000

Financial Activities

20,000

Professional/Business Services

0

-0.9%

Total

3.2% -2.0% -2.5%

Education/Health Services 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 19 26 3 10

March April

May

June

July

August

Sept. Oct.

3.6% 10.4%

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0% NA

2% Department 0.5% Source: Utah of Workforce Services 0%

-2%

0.1%

S A L -4% T LAKE CHAMBER -6% -8% -10% $1,200

-0.9%

-6.4%

-15.7%

Other Services Government

Unemployment Rate

4%

Leisure/Hospitality Services

7.8% 0.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Unemployment Rate September 2020 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.0%

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, September 2020 U.S. 7.9%

5.3% 5.3%

6.1% 6.1%

12.6% 12.6% 11.0% 11.0%

4.1% 4.1%

6.1% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4%

9.4% 9.4%

5.4% 5.4%

4.7% 4.7%

7.6% 7.6%

-0.5% -0.5%

-8.8% -8.8%

VT 4.2% VT 4.2% NH 6.0% NH 6.0% MA 9.6% MA 9.6% CT 7.8% CT 7.8% RIRI 10.5% 10.5% NJ 6.7% NJ 6.7% WV 8.6% WV 8.6% MD 7.2% MD 7.2% DC 8.7% DC 8.7% 8.2% DE DE 8.2%

7.2% 7.2%

U.S. -6.4%

-8.4% -8.4%

-3.1% -3.1%

-6.5% -6.5%

-3.1% -3.1%

-5.6% -5.6%

-0.9% -0.9%

-7.9% -7.9%

-6.8% -6.8% -6.8% -6.8%

-3.3% -3.3%

-6.8% -6.8%

9.7% 9.7%

8.5% 8.5%

8.1% 8.1% 8.4% 8.4% 10.2% 10.2%6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 4.9% 5.6% 4.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.9% 7.3% 7.3% 6.3% 6.3% 5.3% 5.1% 5.3% 7.3% 5.1% 7.3% 6.6% 6.6% 6.4% 6.4% 7.1% 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% 8.1% 8.1%

3.5% 3.5%

5.0% 5.0%

6.7% 6.7%

4.4% 4.4% 6.0% 6.0%

-5.7% -5.7%

6.1% 6.1%

-4.6% -4.6%

-4.4% -4.4% -5.1% -5.1%

-6.6% -6.6%

-7.8% -7.8% -7.1% -7.1% -6.8% -6.8% -4.1% -4.1% -5.0% -4.1% -5.0% -4.1% -5.9% -5.9% -5.8% -4.3% -5.8% -4.3% -3.7% -3.7% -3.5% -3.5% -3.4% -3.4% -3.5% -3.5% -2.5% -2.5% -6.6% -6.6%

-5.6% -5.6%

-2.6% -2.6%

-4.5% -4.5% -9.6% -9.6%

-11.0% -11.0%

-9.5% -9.5%

VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ WV WV MD MD DC DC DE DE

-4.9% -4.9%

-9.9% -9.9% -7.6% -7.6% -9.3% -9.3% -6.1% -6.1% -7.0% -7.0% -7.8% -7.8% -6.5% -6.5% -5.9% -5.9% -6.8% -6.8% -8.0% -8.0%

-18.4% -18.4%

15.1% 15.1%

Unemployment UnemploymentRate Rate 0% 0%toto4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%toto7.0% 7.0%

7.1% 7.1%toto9.0% 9.0% 9.1% 9.1%toto13.0% 13.0%

13.0%+ 13.0%+

Trade/T

Job JobGrowth Growth -2.0% -2.0%or orLower Lower -2.1% -2.1%to to-5.0% -5.0%

-5.1% -5.1% to to -8.0% -8.0% -8.1% -8.1% to to -11.0% -11.0%

Professio

140,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Continued Claims

120,000

Utah Unemployment Rate September 2020

-14.1% or Higher

2019 Average

Educ

Leisur

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, September 2020

100,000 80,000

2.9% Cache 3.3% Rich 4.7% Weber 3.9% Davis 3.2% Morgan 4.3% Dagget

4.8% Box Elder

4.9% Salt Lake

8.5% Uintah

-12%

-0.9%

-6.4%

21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 19 26 3 10

March April

May

June

July

August

Sept. Oct.

3.6% 10.4%

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0% NA

-14%

Unemployment Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US

3.6% Sanpete

6.3% Piute

9.8% Grand

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - August 2020 $1,200 $1,000

8.1% Wayne 10.3% Garfield

10.1% San Juan

5.6% Kane

$600 $400 $200

Unemployment Rate Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

1,109,473,192 998,016,752 749,947,333 707,711,597

990,732,146 896,628,754

$800

7.8% $0

2.9%

Utah

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.6% Emery

4.2% Sevier

4.9% Washington

-10%

5.0% Carbon

3.1% Millard

4.7% Iron

-8%

5.9% 7.6% 3.4% Wasatch Duchesne Utah

3.0% Juab

4.0% Beaver

-6% 0

6.6% Summit

$ Millions

4.8% Tooele

4% 60,000 2% 0.5% 40,000 0% 0.1% -2% 20,000 -4%

Mar-20 5.3%

10.3%

8.0%

Total

Apr-20

May-20

4.4% Residential 6.0%

Jun-20 Nonresidential

Jul-20

Aug-20

Other

5.4% 6.1% 9.7% 4.1% 8.5% Source: Ivory-Boyer6.1% Construction Database 4.7% 8.1% 3.5% 8.4% 12.6% 10.2% 6.2% 5.0% 6.4% R O A D M A5.9% P T O 4.9% R E C O5.6% V E R Y 6.2% CO 11.0% 7.3% 6.3% 6.7% 5.3% 5.1% 7.3% 9.4% 6.6% 6.4%

-

6.1%

-6.8

VT 4.2%

ANHL 6.0% ITION MA CT RI NJ

9.6% 7.8% 10.5% 6.7%

-8.4%

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2019 - September 2020

Cumulative Case Fatality Rate March 15, 2020 - October 4, 2020

800 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 800 800 600 600

899 899 899 599 599 599

899 899 633 633 633

599 599

633 633

400 600 600 400 400

00

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20

0 200 200 0 0

Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20

200 400 400 200 200

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Downtown SLC Snapshot – Week of October 16, 2020 Workforce – 25% of downtown SLC office workers are working from their offices this week.

Restaurants/Bars – 141 restaurants and bars are offering take-out and/or dine-in service – a slight increase since September 18 and up 88% since May 12 (75 open).

Visitor Economy – Convention district hotel occupancy at approximately 51% of 2019 levels, a 21% bump up from September 18 – likely due to the Vice Presidential Debate held at the University of Utah.

Retail – 90% of downtown retail stores are open. Traffic has been growing each week, with a high percentage of shoppers purchasing products.

Source: Downtown Alliance

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

$3,832 $3,832

Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20

Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20

$3,461 $3,461

7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%

3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20

1,000 1,000 1,000

$3,461 $3,461 $3,461

Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20

$0 $0

$3,832 $3,832 $3,832

Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20

00

Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19

176,524 176,524

0 500,000 500,000 0 0

Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19

500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 500,000

May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19

1,008,942 1,008,942 1,008,942 176,524 176,524 1,008,942 1,008,942 176,524

1,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19

2,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000

$4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 Utah Taxable Retail Sales (millions) $4,000 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 January 2019 - July 2020 $3,500 $3,500 $4,000 $4,000 $2,453 $3,500 $2,453 $3,000 $3,000 $2,453 $3,500 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,453 $2,453 $2,500 $3,000 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,000 $1,500 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $500 $1,000 $1,000 $500 $0 $0 $500 $500 $0

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19

3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,483,505 2,006,725 Airport Passengers SLC International 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2019 January - August 2020 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 2,483,505 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,006,725 2,000,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,000,000

0% 0%

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Department ofCumulative Health and John University Utah CaseHopkins Fatality Rate (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center U.S. U.S.Cumulative Cumulative Case Case Fatality Fatality Rate Rate Utah UtahCumulative CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate

Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees January 2019 - September 2020 120,000

120,000 2019 2020 2019 2020 120,000 100,000 2019 2020 100,000 120,000 120,000 100,000 2019 2019 2020 2020 80,000 80,000 100,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 80,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 20,000 20,000 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 00 Jan. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jun. Feb. Mar. Apr. May

Jul. Jul. Jul.

Aug. Sep. Aug. Sep. Aug. Sep.

Jul. Jul.

Aug. Aug.

Sep. Sep.

Source: Visit Salt Lake

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors Roadmap to Recovery

Protect the Hive Investors

Innovator, Convener and Collaborator Levels

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute