Roadmap to Recovery - January 2021 Dashboard

DASHBOARD

January 2021

The Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic.

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

2

Taxable Retail Sales See Year-Over Growth Despite the impacts of the pandemic, taxable retail sales have grown year-over. September 2020 saw $3.5 million in taxable retail sales compared to $2.8 million in September 2019.

Unemployment Claims Rise Slightly Continued unemployment claims have steadily fallen since early May. Toward the end of November, claims rose slightly in the wake of a surge in coronavirus cases.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 21, 2020 – December 12, 2020 140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

3

Utah’s job change ranks second in the nation November year-over job change shows job losses in nearly every state. Utah’s job change of -0.2% ranks second in the nation with job change nearing neutral.

Utah Job Change by Industry October 2019 – November 2020 Total

2019 Average

-0.2%

Construction

4.5%

Manufacturing

100,000

2.7%

Information

80,000

-5.4%

Financial Activities

60,000

Leisure & Hospitality

40,000

4.4% -12.6%

Other Services

5.0%

20,000

Government

-0.7%

0

Education/Health Services

-0.8%

21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 2229 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 2128 5 12

Mar.

Apr.

3.8% 10.4%

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

Dec.

Natural Resources

4.3% NA

Professional/Business Services

Nov.

Unemployment Rate

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

4%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

3.6%

-0.2%

-4%

-6.0%

-6%

S A -8% LT L A K E C H A M B E R $1,000 -12%

-1.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% -2%

$1,200 -10%

-12.6%

990,732,146 896,628,754

1,109,473,192 998,016,752 749,947,333

1,138,540,188 1,122,148,652

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Unemployment Rate November 2020

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, November 2020 -5.5% -5.5%

6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

4.9%

4.5%

4.8% 4.8%

10.1% 10.1%

5.0% 5.0%

6.4% 6.4%

8.2% 8.2%

5.6% 5.6% 5.9% 5.9%

7.5% 7.5%

6.6% 6.6%

5.7% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2%4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 5.6% 4.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 6.2% 4.4% 6.2% 4.4% 5.7% 6.4% 6.4% 4.4% 4.4% 5.7% 6.9% 5.0% 6.9%5.0%

8.1% 8.1%

8.3% 8.3%

8.1% 8.1%

-2.8% -2.8%

-6.1% -6.1%

6.4% 6.4%

-7.6% -7.6%

USA USA 6.7% 6.7% VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE

3.1% 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 6.7% 6.7% 8.2% 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 10.2% 10.2% 76.8% 76.8% 7.5% 7.5% 5.1% 5.1%

-2.7% -2.7%

-0.2% -0.2%

-4.9% -4.9%

-7.6% -7.6% -2.8% -2.8%

-4.7% -4.7% -3.8% -3.8%

-5.6% -5.6%

3.1% 3.1%

Job JobGrowth Growth

10.2% 10.2%

0.7% 0.7%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Unemployment Rate November 2020

Pro

6.0% 9.9% Wasatch Duchesne 4.3% Utah

11.3% Uintah

6.1% Carbon 4.4% Sanpete

-0.2%

-4% 20,000 -6%

-6.0%

-8% 0 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 2229 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 2128 5 12 -10%Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. -12% 3.8% 10.4% 8.6% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 4.1% 4.3% NA -14% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment Rate 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US

5.1% Emery

8.4% Grand

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - October 2020 $1,200

7.2% Wayne 9.7% Garfield

11.2% San Juan

1,109,473,192 998,016,752

1,138,540,188 1,122,148,652

749,947,333 707,711,597

$600 $400 $200 6.0%

Unemployment Rate

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

896,628,754

$800

$0

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

990,732,146

$1,000

5.4% Kane

2.7%

Utah

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.8% Sevier 6.4% Piute

2% 0.5% 60,000 0% 0.1% 40,000 -2%

$ Millions

5.7% Salt Lake

Tra

80,000 4%

6.8% Summit

3.1% Juab

5.7% Washington

2019 Average

Year-Over Percent Change, November 2020 100,000 3.2% Cache 2.7% Rich 5.3% Weber 4.4% Davis 3.4% Morgan 5.1% Dagget

3.3% Millard

Continued Claims

120,000 Job Change

4.0% Box Elder

4.7% Iron

-7.4% -7.4% -6.1% -6.1% USA USA -6.0% -6.0% -6.8% -6.8%-3.3% -3.3% -6.1% -6.1% -8.6% VT -4.4% -3.6% -8.6% VT -4.4% -3.6% -5.2% -5.2% NH -8.0% NH -8.0% -4.9% -4.9% -3.7% -3.7% MA -9.1% MA -9.1% -2.8% -2.9% -2.8% CT -2.9% -5.6% CT -5.6% -2.4% -2.3% RIRI -7.3% -2.3%-1.9% -7.3% -1.9% -2.4% NJ -7.6% NJ -7.6% -4.9% -4.9% MD -4.4% MD -4.4% DC -6.3% DC -6.3% DE -4.7% -8.0% DE -8.0% -4.7%

-15.2% -15.2%

140,000

4.2% Beaver

-9.9% -9.9%

-9.3% -9.3% -5.1% -5.1%

-15.2% -15.2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

5.4% Tooele

-6.9% -6.9%

-4.0% -4.0%

-6.7% -6.7%

-7.0% -7.0%

-6.4% -6.4%

-2.9% -2.9%

-4.9% -4.9%

10.1% 10.1%

Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate

-7.0% -7.0%

0.7% 0.7%

8.4% 8.4%

6.9% 6.9%

3.6% 3.6%

3.1% 3.1%

4.3% 4.3%

7.8% 7.8%

4.4% 4.4%

3.5% 3.5%

5.1% 5.1%

5.0% 5.0%

11.3%

6.0%

Mar-20

Apr-20 May-20

4.9% Total 4.8%

Jun-20

Residential 4.5%

4.4%

Jul-20 Aug-20

Nonresidential

Sep-20 Oct-20

Other 5.0%

5.0% 3.5% 8.4% 6.9% 5.1% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 6.6% 3.6% 3.1% 10.1% 5.7% USA 6.7% 4.3% 6.9% 5.0% 6.2% 6.4% 8.2% R O A D M A P5.6% T O 4.4% R E C O V 5.6% E R Y C4.9% O A L VT I T 3.1% ION NH 3.8% 6.2% 5.3% MA 6.7% 7.8% 5.9% 6.2% 4.4% CT 8.2% 7.5% 6.4% 4.4% 5.7% RI 7.3%

-

-7.

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20

2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 3,000,000 2019 - October 2020 3,000,000 2,500,000 January 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 2,483,505 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,006,725 2,000,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000

1,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

1,000 1,000 1,000

600 800 800 600 600

0 200 200 0 0

00

599 599 599

599 599

400 600 600 400 400

Source: Downtown Alliance

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R 1,089,536 1,089,536 1,089,536

500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 500,000

176,5241,089,536 1,089,536 176,524 176,524 176,524 176,524

0 500,000 500,000 0 0

899 899 899

899 899 545 545 545

545 545

200 400 400 200 200

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Downtown SLC Snapshot – Week of October 30, 2020

Workforce – 25% of downtown SLC office workers are working from their offices this week.

Restaurants/Bars – 141 restaurants and bars are offering take-out and/or dine-in service – a slight increase since September 18 and up 88% since May 12 (75 open).

Visitor Economy – Convention district hotel occupancy is at approximately 43% of 2019 levels.

Retail – 90% of downtown retail stores are open. Traffic has been growing each week, with a high percentage of shoppers purchasing products.

$4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 Utah Taxable Retail Sales (millions) $4,000 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 January 2019 - September 2020 $3,500 $3,500 $4,000 $4,000 $2,453 $3,500 $2,453 $3,000 $3,000 $2,453 $3,500 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,453 $2,453 $2,500 $3,000 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,000 $1,500 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $500 $1,000 $1,000 $500 $0 $0 $500 $500 $0 $0 $0

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2019 - November 2020 Cumulative Case Fatality Rate March 15, 2020 - November 29, 2020

120,000 120,000 2019 2020 2019 2020 120,000 100,000 2019 2020 100,000 120,000 120,000 100,000 2019 2019 2020 2020 80,000 80,000 100,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 80,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 20,000 20,000 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 00 Jan. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jun. Feb. Mar. Apr. May

May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20

Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20

Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20

Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19

Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19

00

3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/29/20 11/29/20 11/29/20 11/29/20 11/29/20

800 1,000 1,000 800 800

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Nov-20

3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,483,505 2,006,725 Airport SLC International Passengers $3,832 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832

$3,458 $3,458 $3,458 $3,458 $3,458

7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%

0% 0%

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Department of Health and John Hopkins University Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. U.S.Cumulative CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center Utah UtahCumulative CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate

Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees January 2019 - December 2020

Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Source: Visit Salt Lake

Jul. Jul. Aug. Nov. Dec. Dec. Sep. Oct. Oct. Nov. Aug. Sep.

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors

“As 2020 comes to a close, Utah continues to lead the way in economic recovery.

I am confident that prosperous times lie ahead.”

Scott Parson, Co-Chair

“While Utah continues to improve, some face greater hardship than others.

As Utahns we should continue to support one another as we recover to better.”

Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair

Roadmap to Recovery Investor

Protect the Hive Investor

Innovate Investors

Convener Investor

Collaborator Investor

Rio Tinto Kennecott

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute