Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard - December 2020

DASHBOARD

December 2020

The Road to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic.

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

2

While COVID-19 cases rise, the cumulative case-fatality rate declines.

While both Utah and the U.S. have seen an increase in COVID-19 cases over the past several weeks, the cumulative case-fatality rate continues to fall. Utah has a 0.5% case-fatality rate compared to the U.S. rate of 3.0%. It will be important to watch in the weeks ahead to see if an increase in deaths follows the surge in cases.

Utah’s unemployment ranks 5th in the nation.

Utah’s unemployment rate reached 10% in April 2020 but declined each month to 4.1% in August. September’s unemployment increased to 5.0%, the first increase since April’s peak. Utah currently ranks 5th with an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 21, 2020 – November 14, 2020 140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

3

Utah’s job change nears neutral.

Utah has been seeing a year-over decline in jobs every month since April’s 7.0% year-over job loss.

October continues to show a decline but of less than 1.0%.

Job growth has continued to improve each month and is nearing neutral. If the rate of improvement continues, Utah should see overall job growth soon!

Utah Job Change by Industry October 2019 – October 2020

Natural Resources

100,000

Construction

80,000

Manufacturing

-11.6% 4.4% 1.0% 3.6%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

60,000

-5.2%

Information

40,000

3.3%

Financial Activities

20,000 0

-0.5%

Total

2019 Average

-1.8%

Professional/Business Services

March

April

3.6% 10.4%

May

June

July

August

Sept.

October Nov.

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

Leisure/Hospitality Services

NA

-14.1%

Other Services

Unemployment Rate

Government

4%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

6.2% 0.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% -2%

-0.5%

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

-4%

-6.0%

-6% -8% $1,200

-0.9%

Education/Health Services

21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14

1,122,148,652

Unemployment Rate October 2020

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, October 2020

6.0% 6.0% 4.9% 4.9%

6.9% 6.9% 5.5% 5.5%

4.8% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6%

12.0% 12.0% 4.1% 4.1% 9.3% 9.3%

5.9% 5.9%

5.5% 5.5%

3.6% 3.6%

U.S. -6.0%

-7.4% -7.4% -6.6% -6.6% -6.2% -6.2% -6.8% -6.8% 0.5%0.5% -10.2% -10.2% -2.9% -2.9% -4.4% -4.4% -8.6% -8.6% -7.4% -7.4% -8.0% -8.0% -4.7% -4.7% -2.5% -2.5% -6.3% -6.7% -6.7% -6.3% -9.5% -9.5% VT VT -0.5% -0.5% -4.2% -3.1% -3.1% -4.2% -8.2% -8.2% -4.3% -4.3%NH NH -3.6% -3.6% -7.7% -7.7% -4.1% -4.1% -5.1% -5.1% -9.2% MA MA -9.2% -5.2% -5.2% -3.5% -3.5% -2.5% -2.5% -5.2% -5.2% CT CT -5.0% -5.0% -3.4% -3.4% -3.3% -3.3% -6.3% -6.3% RI -7.3% -7.3% RI -2.5% -2.5% -7.6% NJ NJ -7.6% -2.8% -2.3% -2.3% -2.8% -6.3% WV WV -6.3% -3.9% -3.9% -5.6% -5.6% -5.2% MD MD -5.2% -6.2% -6.2% -6.3% DC DC -6.3% -4.5% -4.5% -7.7% DE DE -7.7%

5.4% 5.4%

-2.7% -2.7%

-6.0% -6.0%

9.6% 9.6%

7.3% 7.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 3.2% VT VT 3.2% 6.8% 6.8% 4.2% NH NH 4.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 4.6% 4.6% 7.4% MA MA 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 6.3% 6.3% CT CT 6.1% 6.1% 7.4% 7.4% 6.1% 6.1%6.2% RI 7.0% RI 7.0% 6.2% 4.2% 4.2% 8.2% NJ NJ 8.2% 5.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.5% 7.4% 7.4% 6.4% WV WV 6.4% 6.9% 6.9% 7.8% MD MD 7.8% 9.4% 9.4% 8.2% DC DC 8.2% 5.6% DE DE 5.6% 6.5% 6.5%

3.0% 3.0% 6.4% 6.4%

8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 8.1%

5.7% 5.7%

3.6% 3.6%

5.5% 5.5%

-5.6% -5.6%

U.S. 6.9%

-17.4% -17.4%

14.3% 14.3%

Trad

7.1% to 9.0% 7.1% to 9.0% 9.1% to 13.0% 9.1% to 13.0%

13.0%+ 13.0%+

2.8% Cache 3.0% Rich 4.7% Weber 3.9% Davis 3.1% Morgan 4.6% Dagget 5.2% Salt Lake

6.0% Wasatch

3.1% Juab

-8%

9.2% Duchesne

10.7% Uintah

4.0% Sanpete

5.4% Piute

9.6% Grand

4.8% Emery

March

April

3.6% 10.4%

May

June

July

August

Sept.

October Nov.

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

NA

Unemployment Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-14%

Utah

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - September 2020 $1,200 $1,000

11.3% San Juan 5.5% Kane

1,122,148,652 1,109,473,192 998,016,752 749,947,333 707,711,597

990,732,146 896,628,754

$800 $600 $400 $200 $0

Unemployment Rate

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

-6.0%

21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

10.8% Garfield

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

-0.5%

US

7.7% Wayne

2.8%

-12%

E

Le

0.5% 0% 40,000 0.1% -2% 20,000 -4%

-10%

5.4% Carbon

4.3% Sevier

5.2% Washington

2019 Average

80,000 4% 60,000 2%

-6% 0

6.5% Summit

3.6% Utah

4.3% Iron

Profe

Job Change 100,000 Year-Over Percent Change, October 2020

3.7% Box Elder

4.0% Beaver

-14.1% or Higher -14.1% or Higher

Continued Claims

120,000

Utah Unemployment Rate October 2020

3.2% Millard

-5.1% to -8.0% -5.1% to -8.0% -8.1% to -11.0% -8.1% to -11.0%

140,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.8% Tooele

JobJob Growth Growth -2.0% or Lower -2.0% or Lower -2.1% to -5.0% -2.1% to -5.0%

$ Millions

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate 0%0% to 4.9% to 4.9% 5.0% to 7.0% 5.0% to 7.0%

11.3%

6.0%

Mar-20

Apr-20

Total

May-20

Residential

Jun-20

Jul-20

Nonresidential

4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 6.9% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 5.7% 5.5% 3.6% 5.5% 5.5% 3.6% 3.0% 12.0% R O A D M A P T O R E 6.8% C O5.0% V E5.6% RY 4.1% 6.4% 5.3% 4.6% 9.3% 7.4% 7.4% 8.0% 6.1% 8.1%

Aug-20

Sep-20

Other

5.4%

-

9.6% 7.3%

C O A LVTI T3.2% ION 5.3% 6.3%

NH MA CT RI

4.2% 7.4% 6.1% 7.0%

-7

2,000,000

1,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 500,000

600 800 800 600 600

0 200 200 0 0

00 981,944 981,944 981,944 176,524 176,524 981,944 981,944 176,524 176,524 176,524

0 500,000 500,000 0 0

1,000 1,000 1,000

899 899 899

599 599 599

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Source: Downtown Alliance

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R 899 899

599 599 575 575 575

400 600 600 400 400 575 575

200 400 400 200 200

Downtown SLC Snapshot – Week of October 30, 2020

Workforce – 25% of downtown SLC office workers are working from their offices this week.

Restaurants/Bars – 141 restaurants and bars are offering take-out and/or dine-in service – a slight increase since September 18 and up 88% since May 12 (75 open).

Visitor Economy – Convention district hotel occupancy is at approximately 43% of 2019 levels.

Retail – 90% of downtown retail stores are open. Traffic has been growing each week, with a high percentage of shoppers purchasing products.

$4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 Utah Taxable Retail Sales (millions) $4,000 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 January 2019 - September 2020 $3,500 $3,500 $4,000 $4,000 $2,453 $3,500 $2,453 $3,000 $3,000 $2,453 $3,500 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,453 $2,453 $2,500 $3,000 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,000 $1,500 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $500 $1,000 $1,000 $500 $0 $0 $500 $500 $0 $0 $0

120,000 2019 2019 120,000 100,000 2019 100,000 120,000 120,000 100,000 2019 2019 80,000 80,000 100,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 80,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 Jan. Feb. 20,000 20,000 0 Jan. Feb. Jan. Feb. 00 Jan. Jan. Feb. Feb.

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2019 - October 2020 Cumulative Case Fatality Rate March 15, 2020 - November 1, 2020

Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20

Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20

Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19

Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19

Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19

Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19

00

3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20

1,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000

Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20

800 1,000 1,000 800 800

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20

3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,006,725 Airport2,483,505 SLC International Passengers 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2019 January - September 2020 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 2,483,505 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,006,725 2,000,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832

$3,588 $3,588 $3,588 $3,588 $3,588

7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%

0% 0%

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Department ofCumulative Health and John Hopkins University Utah Case Fatality Rate (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center U.S. U.S.Cumulative CumulativeCase Case Fatality Fatality Rate Rate Utah UtahCumulative CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate

Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees January 2019 - October 2020 120,000

2020 2020 2020

2020 2020

Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct.

Source: Visit Salt Lake

Mar. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jun. Jul. Jul. Aug. Apr. May Sep. Oct. Oct. Aug. Sep.

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

“Utah continues to lead the country with a strong economic recovery; with continued persistence we will recover to thrive!”

Scott Parson, Co-Chair

“As the battle with COVID-19 rages on we must continue to work together to protect our health and our economy long-term.”

Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair

“While no one has escaped the impacts of this pandemic, the impacts have not been equal.

Let’s continue to support one another and remember that the pandemic will end and we can emerge even stronger.”

Brandon Fugal, Co-Chair

Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors Roadmap to Recovery

Protect the Hive Investors

Innovator, Convener and Collaborator Levels

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute