Roadmap to Prosperity Economic Dashboard - August 2021

DASHBOARD

August 2021

The Roadmap to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic.

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

2

Utah ranks 2nd for two-year

Utah air travel spikes.

job growth.

May 2021 shows a significant spike in air travel with more than 2.0 million passengers.

This mirrors pre-pandemic levels with 2.1 million passengers in February 2020.

Utah’s 2-year job growth of 2.8% ranks second highest in the nation.

Utah is one of only three states to see growth by this metric, all other states still suffer job losses.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – July 2021

3

More than half of eligible Utahns are fully vaccinated.

As of July 19th, 55.7% of Utahns age 12+ were fully vaccinated with more than 60% having received at least one dose. As vaccination rates increase, many activities can safely resume.

Utah Job Change by Industry June 2019 - June 2021 Total

140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

2019 Average

3.3%

Construction

11.7%

Manufacturing

100,000

Information

6.0% -2.0%

80,000

Financial Activities

60,000

Leisure & Hospitality

-4.4%

Other Services

-4.2%

40,000

Government

20,000 Mar

Apr

3.8% 10.4%

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

4.3%

Unemployment Rate 12% 10% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.5% S A0% L T0.1% LAKE CHAMBER -2% -4% -6% -8%

3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% NA

0

Education/Health Services

7.0% 5.8%

8.3%

-1.8% 1.8%

Natural Resources -14.6% Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities

8.0% 5.7%

Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Unemployment Rate June 2021

Job Change Two-Year Percent Change, June 2021

5.2% 4.0%

3.7%

5.6% 5.6% 3.0% 3.0% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7%

2.7% 2.7%

3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0%

2.5% 2.5%

6.2% 6.2%

6.8% 6.8%

4.0% 4.0%

2.9% 2.9%

5.4% 5.4%

3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%

7.9% 7.9%

6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6%

-2.8% -2.8%

4.8% 4.8%

-4.9% -4.9% 5.0% 5.0%

7.7% 7.7%

-0.9% -0.9% -6.3% -6.3% -6.6% -6.6%

6.9% 6.9%

USA USA 5.9% 5.9%

5.2% 4.1% 4.1% 5.2% 7.2% 7.2% 5.3% 5.3%4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 3.3% 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.9% 6.9%

VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE

5.0% 5.0%

-1.6% -1.6%

3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 4.9% 4.9% 7.9% 7.9% 5.9% 5.9% 7.3% 7.3% 6.2% 6.2% 7.0% 7.0% 5.8% 5.8%

-5.7% -5.7% -0.9% -0.9%

2.5% 2.5%

7.9% 7.9%

-2.8% -2.8%

USA USA -3.3% -3.3% VT -4.1% VT -4.1% NH -6.2% NH -6.2% MA -3.6% MA -3.6% CT -6.0% CT -6.0% RIRI -6.4% -6.4% NJ -6.3% NJ -6.3% MD -4.9% MD -4.9% DC -4.3% DC -4.3% -6.5% DE DE -6.5%

-13.4% -13.4%

4.1% 4.1%

2.5% Salt Lake

2.4% Summit

4.6% 2.5% Duchesne 2.2% Wasatch Utah

5.4% Uintah

2019 Average

Profe

Trad

100,000 12% 10% 80,000 8% 7.0% 6% 5.8% 60,000 4% 2% 40,0000.5% 0% -2% 0.1% 20,000 -4% -6% 0 -8% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul -10% 3.8% 10.4% 8.6% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 4.1% 4.3% -12% -14% Unemployment Rate 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 US Utah Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.7% Carbon 2.7% Sanpete

E

3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% NA

1.9% Cache 2.1% Rich 2.7% Weber 2.3% Davis 1.9% Morgan 3.8% Dagget

3.9% Grand

4.2% Emery

3.2% Sevier

2.6% Washington

Job JobGrowth Growth

Job Change Continued Claims 120,000 Year-Over Percent Change, June 2021

2.0% Juab

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - May 2021 $1,000

4.7% Wayne

4.2% Piute 6.4% Garfield

6.1% San Juan

$ Millions

2.6% Iron

-6.0% -6.0%

-4.9% -4.9% -3.2% -3.2% -4.1% -3.8% -3.8% -4.1% -6.9% -2.1% -6.9% -3.2% -2.1% -3.2% -4.0% -4.0% -1.7% -1.7% -1.1% -1.1% -4.1% -3.2% -4.1% 0.5% -3.2% 0.5% -8.6% -8.6% -2.0% -3.0% -2.0% -3.0% -1.3% -1.3% -7.6% -7.6%

140,000

2.2% Box Elder

2.7% Beaver

-5.9% -5.9%

-7.0% -7.0%

4.1% 4.1%

Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Unemployment Rate June 2021

2.3% Millard

-5.0% -5.0%

-13.4% -13.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2.7% Tooele

-9.2% -9.2%

-6.7% -6.7% -5.4% -5.4%

-1.0% -1.0% -4.1% -4.1%

-2.5% -2.5%

-2.5% -2.5%

7.7% 7.7%

Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate

2.8% 2.8%

-5.6% -5.6%

$500

2.8% Kane

$0 5.2%

Unemployment Rate 1.9% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

6.4%

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 2021 Residential

Non-residential

-2

Other

4.8% 4.0% 3.7% 5.6% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 4.0% 2.9% 3.9% 3.0% 7.7% 5.0% 5.4% 4.0% 6.9% 2.5% USA 5.9% 7.8% 4.1% 5.2% 2.7% R O6.2% A D M A P T O R7.2% E C O V E5.3% R Y C O A VT L I 3.1% TIO 4.3% 3.7% 7.7% 4.3% 2.9% NH 4.4% 4.6% MA 4.9% 4.9% 6.8% 3.7% 4.4% 4.5% CT 7.9% 7.9%

-4.9

N

-1

-5.7%

1,000,000 $0

$5,000 $5,000

Confidence Index Confidence IndexIndex Confidence 600

0

200

400

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019

Oct. Nov. Dec. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 21 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 21

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 21 100,000 2019 120,000 0 80,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A2020 M J 2020 2021 100,000 2019 2021 120,000 60,000 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 80,000 2020 100,000 40,000 2019

120,000 200

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

60,000 80,000 20,000

40,000 S60,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R

2020 2021

J

2021

F

M

A

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality1.0 Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

M J A F MM JA

6/7/21

5/24/21

5/10/21

M 0.5J J M J J

M A M A

2021

4/26/21

0%60 0

O N D J F UtahN D J2021F O 4/12/21

1%

A S AU.S. S

3/29/21

20200

J J

3/1/21

M J M J

3/15/21

M50 A M2020A

6/21/21

100

0

MF AM M J J JA JS AO S N O D N J D F J 6 days.

A M Note:2020 Number 2021 2021 2020 of vaccines includes date listed and the following 2.5 40 Utah Department of Health Source:

JM

2.5

200

200 CEO 20 Confidence 150

1.5

Index, Q1 2017 – Q1 2021

1.5

150 100

1.0 2.5

060

100 J F 200 50 50 2020

M A

M J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

2021

F

1.5

0.5 0

J

1.0 $3,901

7/5/217/5/21

6/21/21 6/21/21

6/7/216/7/21

5/24/21 5/24/21

5/10/21 5/10/21

4/26/21 4/26/21

$3,00050

4/12/21 4/12/21

20

3/29/21 3/29/21

$4,0001000

1.0 M 0.5

M A

50 150

40 0 $5,000

0

0.5

7/5/21

6/21/21

6/7/21

2019

5/24/21

2018

5/10/21

2017

4/26/21

40 $1,000

4/12/21

60 00 $2,000 50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 0Q4 Q1

2020

21

Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the $0 20 will improve economy J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 120,000 2020 Source: Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute,2021 and Utah 2019 Average Retail Sales Bureau0of Labor Statistics 100,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 21 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000 80,000

January 2019 - June 2021

40,000 120,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 20,000 6% 100,000 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate 0 5% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. 2020 Nov. Dec. 80,000 4% 2021 60,000 3% 7%

2% 40,000 1%

20,000

0%

M0 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. 2021 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more.

Source: Visit Salt Lake

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

U.S. Utah Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

D

2.5 200 1.5

Cum

20,000 40,000 100 20,0000

2021

N

1.5

3/29/21

7/5/21

6/7/21

6/21/21

5/24/21

5/10/21

4/26/21

4/12/21

3/29/21

3/1/21

3/15/21

2/1/21

2/15/21

1/4/21

0 0 120,000 J F J M F A M MA J M J J AJ SA OS NO DN JD FJ M A A M M J F M 2020 2021 100,000 2020 2021 2019 60 2019 Average Airport Passengers Source: State of Utah Unified Response Scorecard 80,000 2020 50 60 2021 60,000 40 Utah 50 Bankruptcy Cases 40,000 40 January 2019 - June 2021 60 20 20,000

80

2%20

eek

4 Q1 21

1/18/21

12/21/20

Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)

Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Index (Thousands)

U.S. Utah Utah Consumer ConfidenceU.S. 80 2.5 80 January 2020 - June 2021 200 6060 100 1.5 60 50 U.S. Utah 150 40 80 40 1.0 40 100 2,008,498 2,000,000 2020 60 0.5 20 50 1,500,000 400 00 J Q1 F Q2 M Q3 A Q4 M Q1 J Q2 J Q3 A Q4 S Q1 O Q2 N Q3 D Q4 J Q1 F Q2 M Q3 A 0 Q4 M Q1 J 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2021 2020 21 0 2020 20 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2020 2021 500,000

3%

O

Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)

100

S

$3,000

$2,000

7%

$0

6%

150

3/15/21 3/15/21

0J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Department F M A ofM J and J John A Hopkins S O University N D 2021 J FCoronavirus M A M J Source: 2020 Utah Health (JHU) 2021 100 2020 Resource Center 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed

A

3/15/21

J

200

2/15/21

J

2020

3/1/213/1/21

M

J

3/1/21

A

5% 5% 4% 80 4% 3% 3% 7% 2% 60 2% 6% 1% 1% 5% 0% 100 40 0% 4%

2/1/21

M

J

2/15/21 2/15/21

2021

F

$3,901 $3,901 M A M

F

2021

$4,000 $0

$1,000

Retail Sales U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate O U.S. N Cumulative D J FCase M Fatality A MRate J Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 2021 Case Fatality Utah Cumulative 2.5 Rate U.S. Utah 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed

2/1/212/1/21

J

M

2/1/21

D

A

2/15/21

N

M

1/4/21

O

F

1/18/21

S

A

Airport Passengers

7% Utah Vaccine Doses2019

by Week 7% Average 0 6% M 2020 A M - July J J 5, A S 6% December 2021 100 J F 14, 2020

1/18/21 1/18/21

A

J

1/18/21

2%040 J2020 F M A M J J A S O N D J2021 F M A M J J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 400 2020 1% 2019 Average Bankruptcy 2021 Cases Filed 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0%20

$0 200

12/21/20

3%

J

J

M

Note: As marketplace with were Cases FiledArequired Mof October A M 2019, J 2019 J Average A S facilitators O NBankruptcy D a Utah J nexus F M M to J pay J $1,000 2020 2021 sales increasing taxable retail sales.

400 tax, Source: Utah State Tax Commission

1/4/211/4/21

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

600 0

J

O N D

F

$3,901

12/21/20 12/21/20

Airport Passengers

20060

M

Retail Sales

2019 Average

1/4/21

2021

200 800 4%

A

J

2021

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

12/21/20

Utah

D

Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)

U.S.

6% 400 40080 5%

20 800 40 0

S

N

J

Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands)

600 100 7% 600

50

A

O

M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA JJ2020FF M 2021 2020 2021 F M A M J2019 J Average A S O NRetail D Sales J F M A M J 2019 Average Retail Sales 600 2020 2021 $2,000 0% 1%

(Thousands) (Thousands) (Thousands)

AirportPassengers Passengers Airport

Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 2019 Average 800 800 March, 2020 - July 2021

J

J

M A M

$4,000 200 3% $0 $0 800 2% $3,000 0

Vaccines Doses

by Week Vaccines Doses

by Week Confidence Index Confidence Index Vaccines Doses

by Week

2021

2019Average Average 2019

2020

2020

M A M J

F

J

2021

$1,000 $1,000 4%

J F F M M A A M MJ J J JA AS O S NO DN J D F J M F A MM A J 500,000J2020 2020 2021 2021 2019 Average Retail Sales Source: Salt Lake City International Airport 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

0

F

2020

5% 400 $5,000

M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M JJ2020FF M 2021

$0 0

M

J

600

2,008,498

2020

O N D

Airport Passengers

$2,000

1,000,000

J

S

6% $2,000

$3,000 600 500,000 500,000 2,000,000 $2,000 400 0 1,500,0000 $1,000 200

200

0

800

$4,000 800 1,000,000 1,000,000

A

2019 Average

$3,000 $3,000 7%

$3,901

J

Utah Taxable J F Retail M A Sales M J (millions) J A S 2020 500,000 2019 - April 2021 January 2019 Average

$4,000 $4,000

$5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000

M A M J

7/5/21

M

2,008,498 2,008,498

2,000,000 2,000,000

M

A

F

2020

5% 4% 3%

2% 7% 1% 6% 0% 5% M 4%

2

3% 2% 1% 0%

M

22

Vaccines Doses by Week Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)

0

J

$1,000

SLC International J F MAirport A M JPassengers J A S O N D J F M 2020 2021 January 2019 - May 20212019 Average Airport Passengers

98

M

500,000

2,000,000 $2,000 0 1,500,000

1,000,000

1

1

2

1

1

Special thanks to the Roadmap to Prosperity Coalition Investors

“Utah is one of only two states showing two-year job growth. In addition to the progress we’ve made combating COVID-19, Utah’s economy continues to thrive.”

Roadmap to Prosperity Investor

Protect the Hive Investor

Scott Parson, Co-Chair

“As the vaccination rate rises, Utahns are able to enjoy many activities that they’ve missed for the past year. With continued vigilance we will reach health and economic prosperity for all.”

Innovate Investors

Convener Investor

Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair

Collaborator Investor

Rio Tinto Kennecott

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute