Roadmap to Recovery April 2021 Economic Dashboard

DASHBOARD

April 2021

The Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic.

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

2

Utah’s unemployment rate drops to 3.0%.

Utah Job change is neutral.

After 11 consecutive months of decline, Utah’s job change is neutral at 0.0%. Utah’s job change has continually improved indicating job growth is likely coming soon!

Utah’s 3.0% unemployment rate nears pre-pandemic levels and ranks 2nd in the nation. This marks the sixth consecutive month of decline.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – March 2021 140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

More than one million vaccines had been administered in Utah as of mid-March. Utah’s COVID-19 cases have been declining or remaining steady for the last several weeks.

Utah Job Change by Industry February 2020 - February 2021 2019 Average

Total

0.0%

Construction

5.0%

Manufacturing

100,000

1.4%

Information

80,000

-3.5%

Financial Activities

60,000

Leisure & Hospitality

40,000

4.8% -8.5%

Other Services

20,000

-1.4%

Government

3.8% 10.4%

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

Nov Dec Jan Feb 4.3%

Unemployment Rate

4%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% -2% -4%

S A -6% LT L A K E C H A M B E R -8% -10% $1,000 -12%

-3.7%

Education/Health Services Mar

Apr

NA

Mar

3.5% 3.3% 3.0%

0

3

Utah surpasses one million vaccine doses.

Natural Resources

-2.8% -10.0%

Professional/Business Services

3.8%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

3.8%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

-6.0%

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

Unemployment Rate February 2021

Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, February 2021

5.6% 4.7% 4.7%

3.3% 3.3%

3.1% 3.1% 6.6% 6.6%

8.5% 8.5% 6.9% 6.9%

3.2% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4%

8.3% 8.3%

5.0% 5.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 5.2% 4.2% 5.2% 4.2% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.7% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.2% 5.2% 6.3% 6.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 7.4% 4.0% 7.4%4.0%

6.9% 6.9%

USA USA 6.2% 6.2% VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE

7.6% 7.6%

6.6% 6.6%

0.9% 0.9%

4.7% 4.7%

-10.7% -10.7%

3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 7.1% 7.1% 8.5% 8.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.8% 7.8% 6.2% 6.2% 8.1% 8.1% 6.3% 6.3%

-9.5% -9.5%

-3.0% -3.0%

-4.1% -4.1%

-5.4% -5.4%

-9.2% -9.2%

-7.2% -7.2%

-5.5% -5.5% -5.2% -5.2%

2.9% 2.9%

9.2% 9.2%

-5.7% -7.5% -7.5%-4.5% -4.5% -5.7% -5.5% -5.5% -4.6% -4.6% -5.0% -5.0% -5.3% -5.3% -3.9% -3.9% -3.6% -3.6% -5.7% -5.7% -3.2% -3.2% -3.9% -3.9% -4.6% -4.6% -4.0% -4.0% -3.2% -3.2% -4.6% -4.6% -7.9% -7.9% -6.3% -6.3%

Job JobGrowth Growth

-17.6% -17.6%

E Continued Claims

2019 Average

Profe

Year-Over Percent Change, February 2021 100,000 2% 60,000 0.5% 0% 0.1% 40,000 -2% -4% 20,000 -6% -8%0

5.5% Summit

-10% -12%

4.2% 6.7% Wasatch Duchesne 2.9% Utah

7.7% Uintah

4.2% Emery

5.6% Grand

3.6% Sevier 5.1% Piute

Mar

Apr

3.8% 10.4%

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

Unemployment Rate

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US

7.0% Garfield

8.0% San Juan

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - February 2021

$500

$0

3.8% Kane

Mar Apr May Jun 2020 Residential

Unemployment Rate

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

Utah

$1,000

5.4% Wayne

2.3%

Nov Dec Jan Feb 4.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.6% Carbon 3.4% Sanpete

0.0%

-6.0%

-14%

$ Millions

3.6% Salt Lake

Trad

80,000 4%

2.4% Cache 3.0% Rich 3.6% Weber 3.1% Davis 2.7% Morgan 4.0% Dagget

2.3% Juab

3.7% Washington

VT -8.7% VT -8.7% NH -5.7% NH -5.7% MA -9.0% MA -9.0% CT -7.3% CT -7.3% RIRI -9.2% -9.2% NJ -8.4% NJ -8.4% MD -5.9% MD -5.9% DC -9.0% DC -9.0% DE -5.3% DE -5.3%

0.9% 0.9%

120,000 Job Change

2.9% Box Elder

3.5% Iron

USA USA -6.0% -6.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Unemployment Rate February 2021

3.4% Beaver

-11.0% -11.0% -7.3% -7.3%

-5.1% -5.1%

140,000

2.8% Millard

-7.6% -7.6%

-17.6% -17.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.7% Tooele

-5.2% -5.2%

-7.3% -7.3%

-2.3% -2.3%

-5.5% -5.5%

0.0% 0.0%

9.2% 9.2%

Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate

-6.7% -6.7%

Mar

3.0% 3.0%

8.9% 8.9% 7.3% 7.3%

5.2% 5.2%

3.6% 3.6%

-2.3% -2.3%

-7.9% -7.9%

NA

8.3% 8.3%

3.8% 3.8%

2.9% 2.9%

5.3% 5.3%

-6.1% -6.1%

4.8% 4.8%

4.3% 4.3%

3.5% 3.3% 3.0%

6.1% 6.1%

3.9%

8.0%

Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2021 Non-residential

Other

5.6% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction 4.8% 3.9% 4.7%Database 4.3% 6.1% 3.3% 3.8% 2.9% 8.9% 5.2% 5.3% 7.3% 3.6% 3.1% 8.3% 5.0% USA 6.2% 3.0% 7.4% 4.0% 6.2% 6.6% VT 3.1% 8.5% R O A D M A 3.2% P T O 4.2% RECOV E R Y 5.2% C O A LNHI T3.3% IO 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% MA 7.1% 6.9% 4.4% 4.5% CT 8.5% 5.2% 8.3% RI 7.3% 6.3% 4.0% 4.8%

-

-7.9

-

N

-9.5%

80,000

100,000 40,000

Source: 60,000United States Bankruptcy Court

80,000 20,000

60,000 S40,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R

2020 2021

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

U.S. MayUtah Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Jan-19 Apr Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jun Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Jul Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Aug Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Sep May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Oct Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov Oct-20 Dec Nov-20 Jan Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb Feb-21 Mar

Mar

Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar

Oct Oct

Sep Sep

Aug Aug

Jul Jul

Jun Jun

May May

Apr Apr

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Mar Mar

Feb Mar

3/15

Jan

Dec

3/8 Nov

3/1

2/22

Oct

Sep 2/15

2/8

Aug 2/1

1/25

1/18 Jul

Jun 1/11

1/4 2021

May12/28

3/15

3/8

3/1

2/22

2/15

40,000

20,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 100,000 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate 0 5% Nov. Dec. 80,000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. 2020 4% 2021 60,000 6%

3%

40,000 2% 0%

0

Feb Mar

1% 20,000

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2020

2021

Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more.

Source: Visit Salt Lake

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 150

1,200

Cumula

20,000 40,000 100 0 20,000

2020 2019 2021

January 2019 - March 2021

7% 120,000

Jan

2020

2021

Dec

2019

2020

2019 Average Retail Sales Bureau0of Labor Statistics 100,000 2019Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 80,000 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000

Nov

2018

the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the 20 $0 economyJan will improve Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 120,000 Source: Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, and Utah

Oct

2017

4000 120,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 200 100,000 2019 120,000 0 80,000 2020 100,000 2019 2021 120,000 60,000

60

400 60 $3,000 300 50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 $2,000 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 40 $1,000 Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe

Sep

3/15

3/8

3/1

2/22

2/15

2/8

2/1

1/25

1/18

1/11

1/4 2021

12/28

12/21

0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Jan 120,000 Dec Jan 2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2021 60 2021 100,000 2020 2019 2019 Average Airport Passengers Source: 50State of Utah Unified Response Scorecard 60 80,000 2020 5040 2021 60,000 Utah Bankruptcy Cases 40 60 40,000 January 20 2019 - February 2021 50 20,000 1,000 20 899 40 0 0 Q1 Q3Mar. Q4 Q1 Q3 Jun. Q4 Q1 Q3 Sep. Q4 Q1 Q3Dec. Q4 Jan. Q2 Feb. Apr.Q2May Jul. Q2 Aug. Oct. Q2 Nov. 800 2018 2019 2020 599 2017 20 0 600 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 365

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

3 Q4

0

Confidence Index Confidence Index Confidence Index

Feb

12/14 2020

1,066,382 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 0 0JanQ1Feb Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22021 Q3 0 Q4 1,000,000 0 2020 2017 Apr May Jun 2018 2020Feb Jul Aug Sep2019 Oct Nov Dec Jan 20 Jan Feb Mar 2020 2021 500,000

2/8

400

40

2/1

800

Aug

Utah

1/25

Confidence Index

U.S.

1/18

Vaccines Doses by Week (thousands)

60 120 50 40 80 40 4090 2,000,000 20 60 6020 20 1,500,000 0 30

Cumulative Vaccines (thousands)

1,200

150 60 100 60

2021 2021

1,200 150 1,200 150 CEO 20 120Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q4 2020 800 120 90 060 800 90 60Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1,200 150 50 400 2021 60 2020 30 400 40 120 $5,000 800 30 $3,293 0 90 0 $4,000 0 020

1/11

2021

U.S. Utah Consumer Confidence 80 U.S. Utah 80 January 2020 - February 2021

Jun

2020

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Note: Number of vaccines includes date listed and the following 6 days.

2020 402020 Source: Utah Department of Health

1/4 2021

100

0 0%60

May

Source: Utah Department of Health and John Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 100 Jan Resource Center

1%

0

Cumulative Vaccines (thousands) Cumulative Vaccines (thousands) Cumulative Vaccines (thousands)

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

0

2021

0

Apr

2020 0

2%20

12/14 Apr 2020

Mar

0% 200 20

12/14 12/14 2020 2020 12/21 12/21 12/28 12/28 1/4 2021 1/4 2021 1/11 1/11 1/18 1/18 1/25 1/25 2/1 2/1 2/8 2/8 2/15 2/15 2/22 2/22 3/1 3/1 3/8 3/8 3/15 3/15

Jan-19 Jan-19 Apr Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jun Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Jul Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Aug Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Sep May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Oct Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Nov Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec Nov-20 Jan Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar Feb-21

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1,000 2020 Case Fatality Rate 2021 Cumulative 1,000 899 2019 Average 899Airport Passengers 800 2020 - March 2021 March, 800 599 7%600 599 100 365 600 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality 365 Rate 6% U.S. Utah Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 400 1,000 5% 400 80 899 200 4% 800 200 3%60 599 0 600 2% 0 365 40 1% 400

12/14 2020

Retail Sales

Vaccines Doses by Week (thousands)

2019Airport Average Source: Salt Lake City International

Mar

2021

$3,293

4% $4,000 1,000 200 899 3%$0$0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan $3,000 800 2020 2021 2% 0 2020 2021 2019Average Average RetailSales Sales 599 2019 Retail 1% $2,000 600 Note: pay 365 0% As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to $1,000 sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales.

400 Source: Utah State Tax Commission 2021 $02020 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 7% 2020 2021 Utah Vaccine Doses2019

by Week 7% Average Retail Sales U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% 0 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% 100 December 14, 2020 - March 15, 2021Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 5% 5% U.S. Utah 4% 4%80 1,200 150 3% 3% 7% 2% 120 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 60 2% 6% 800 1% Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 90 1% 5% 0% 100 0% 4%4060 400 U.S. Utah 3% 2020 2021 30 802020 2021

Mar

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

0 500,000 2020

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality 365 Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

Cumulative Vaccines (thousands)

Jan-21 Feb-21

2021

AirportPassengers Passengers Airport

$3,000

$1,000

$0

7% 6% 5%

$5,000

Vaccines Doses by Week (thousands)

2019Average Average 2019

2021

Airport Passengers

400 5% $1,000 $1,000

by Week (thousands) Confidence ConfidenceVaccines Index Doses VaccinesIndex Doses by Week (thousands)

2020

2019 Average

$2,000 $2,000 6%

ousands)

800 $3,000 500,000 500,000 2,000,000 599 600 $2,000 365 00 1,500,000 Jan Feb FebMar MarApr AprMay MayJun Jun Jul Jul Aug AugSep SepOct OctNov NovDec DecJan Jan 400 Jan $1,000 1,066,382 2021 2020

2021

Retail Sales

599

7% 600

899

0

365

$3,000 $3,000

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Jan 2021

800

$3,293 1,066,382 1,066,382

1,000 $4,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

2020

$4,000 $0

$2,000 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

$3,293 $3,293 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 899 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

0

1,000

$4,000 $4,000

$5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000

$0

2019 Average

$5,000 $5,000

2,000,000 2,000,000

1,000,000 200

Utah $0 Taxable Retail Sales (millions) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 500,0002020 January 2019 - January 2021

12/21

2021

Airport Passengers

2021

1,066,382 Airport Passengers

2019 Average

12/28

2019 Average

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

12/21

SLC International Airport Passengers 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug January 2019 2020 - February 2021

82

2020

$1,000

1,000,000

Jul

500,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

4% 3% 2% 7% 1% 6% 0% 5% 4%

20

3% 2% 1% 0%

Doses by Week (thousands) Vaccines Doses by WeekVaccines (thousands)

2,000,000 0 $2,000 1,500,000

1,066,382 1,000,000

15020

120

90

60

30 150

0 120

90

60

30

0

Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors

“Utah’s unemployment rate of 3.0% nears pre-pandemic levels, showing Utah’s economic strength.

We continue to lead the nation in economic recovery.”

Roadmap to Recovery Investor

Protect the Hive Investor

Scott Parson, Co-Chair

“With Utah surpassing one million vaccine doses we are approaching both a health and economic recovery for our community.

With continued perseverance, we can emerge stronger.”

Innovate Investors

Convener Investor

Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair

Collaborator Investor

Rio Tinto Kennecott

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute