2.0%
Total
2.6%
Construction 0.1%
Manufacturing
6.2%
Information 0.6%
Financial Activities
6.0%
Other Services 3.0%
Government
3.7%
Education/Health Services
6.2%
Leisure/Hospitality Services Natural Resources -1.0%
DASHBOARD
1.0% December 2023
Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities -1.2%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
2.0%
The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. 1.8% The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators.
1
THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS: 2012 2014 2016 US
2
2018 2020 Utah
Utah consumer sentiment leaps to highest level in over two years.
Consumers expressed more optimism in December both nationally and in Utah. Utah’s consumer sentiment jumped 8.4% while national sentiment increased 13.7% from November to December.
2022
2024
Utah and U.S. employment growth continues to moderate. Year-over job growth reached unprecedented highs during the post-pandemic economic recovery and continued to moderate throughout 2023. Job growth nationally and in Utah remains strong by historical standards.
Unemployment Rate November 2023
3.6% 3.6%
1.9% 1.9%
3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
3.3% 3.3%
4.9% 4.9% 4.3% 4.3%
3.9% 3.9%
3.3% 3.3%
2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 3.3%
0.8% 4.3% 4.3%
4.3% 4.3% 3.4% 3.4%
3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 2.9% 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 4.3% 4.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5%
4.4% 4.4%
1.6%
3.0% 3.0%
3.1% 3.1%
2.3% 2.3%
5.4% 5.4%
2.9% 2.9%
3.0%
3.6%
USA 3.7% 3.7% USA VT 2.1% 2.1% VT NH 2.3% 2.3% NH 2.9% MA 2.9% MA CT 3.6% 3.6% CT RI 2.9% 2.9% RI NJ 4.7% 4.7% NJ MD 1.8% 1.8% MD DC 5.0% 5.0% DC DE 4.2% 4.2% DE
1.9% 2.9%
2.0%
1.2%
1.4% 1.9%
2.2%
1.8% 1.8%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
1.9% 1.6% 2.6%
1.7% 1.1%
1.0% 0.7%
0.6%
1.0% 2.2%
1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 2.6% 1.7% 2.1% -0.5% 3.0% 1.8% 2.8%
1.0% 1.0%
2.9% 2.9%
Unemployment Rate
Salt Lake City International Airport served 2.1 million passengers in November, a drop from July’s 2.5 million passenger peak. Despite falling from summer, November’s passenger count represents a 5% year-over growth rate.
Year-Over Job Change November 2023
4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%
3
Airport passengers increase 5% from year prior.
USA 1.8% 1.8% USA VT 1.2% 1.2% VT NH 1.2% 1.2% NH MA 1.9% 1.9% MA CT 1.5% 1.5% CT RI -0.3% -0.3% RI NJ 1.5% 1.5% NJ MD 1.4% 1.4% MD DC 0.9% 0.9% DC DE 1.9% 1.9% DE
0.6% 0.6% 5.4% 5.4%
Job Growth
-0.5% -0.5%
3.6% 3.6%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Le
Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – November 2023
Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry November 2023 2.0%
Total
2.6%
Construction 0.1%
Manufacturing
6.2%
Information 0.6%
Financial Activities
6.0%
Other Services 3.0%
Government
3.7%
Education/Health Services
6.2%
Leisure/Hospitality Services Natural Resources -1.0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities -1.2%
2014
2016 US
2018 2020 Utah
2022
2024
Utah Unemployment Rate November 2023
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 –June 2023
3.2% Sanpete
$ Millions
3.5% Emery
1.9%
0.8%
3.1% 3.0% Washington
2.9%
6.0% Garfield 1.9% 1.6%
3.0% 2.6% Kane
1.1%
2.0%
1.0% 0.7%
0.6%
2.8%
1.0%
1.0%
MD 1.4% DC 0.9% DE 1.9%
68.3%
68%
-0.5%
4.1%
3.5% 3.0%
3.5%
2.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 2.9%
65%
2.9%
$30063.4% 64% Unemployment Rate
1.8%
63%
$200
60%
0$
USA 3.7% VT 2.1% NH 2.3% MA 2.9% CT 3.6% RI 2.9% 69.5% NJ 4.7% $490,000 MD 1.8% DC 5.0% DE 4.2%
5.4%
62.8%
62%
61% $100
$20
3.0%
3.1%
60.2%
U.S.
Utah
J F MA MJ J A S ONDJ F MA MJ J A S ONDJ F MA MJ J A S ONDJ F M AM J J A S O N 2021 2022 2023 $02020 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S OO 2020 2021 2022 2023
1.4 900
800 600
400 Job G 200 0
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
5
0.6%
S70% A LT L A K E C H A M B E R Job 69%Growth
1.9%
66% $400
4.3% San Juan 1.7%
2.2% 1.8% USA 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% Unemployment Rate 2.4% 1.2% 1.5% VT 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% NH 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 6.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% MA 1.9% 2.6% 2.2% $0 CT 1.5% 1.7% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services -0.5%2022 2.1% 2020 2021 3.0% ‘23 RI -0.3% NJ 1.5% 1.8%
$500 3.6%
3.0%
$600 69% 68.3% 68% $500 4.4% 67.4% 67%
Wayne
$30
M A 3.3% M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 3.3% 2022 4.3% ‘23 2020 2021 2.0%
Utah Median Home Sales Price 4.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9% January 2020 – November 2023 70%
Other 4.0%
Non-residential 5.0% Piute
$40
$10
4.0%
4.3% 3.0% 3.4% 2.3% 3.3% 5.4% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 3.7% 3.6% 2.8% 4.7% 4.2% 2.9% 3.3% 2.9% 4.9% 4.3% 3.2%
3.5% Grand
3.0% Sevier 3.3% Residential Beaver
$500
3.4% Uintah
4.0% Carbon
2.6% Millard
$1,000 2.8% 1.6% Iron
$1,000
$0 3.6%
2.8% Juab
$ Millions
3.1% Duchesne
Other Sales Price ($ Thousands)
2.7% Wasatch
Non-residential
$50
2.7% Summit
2.9% Utah
$1,500
Residential
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
2.9% Salt Lake
3.1% Tooele
$60
$1,500
2.5% Cache 2.7% Rich 3.1% Weber 2.7% Davis 2.4% Morgan 4.1% Dagget
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
900 3.6% 69.5%
4
ions)
2024
5.4%
2012
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.8% Box Elder
T 2.1% H 2.3% A 2.9% T 3.6% I 2.9% J 4.7% D 1.8% C 5.0% E 4.2%
1.8%
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.8%
A 3.7%
Tra
2.0%
1.0%
Professional/Business Services
2.0%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
Profe
800
2.5
2.0
Oct-2
Dec-2
Jun-2
Aug-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Oct-2
Dec-2
Jun-2
Aug-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Oct-2
Dec-2
Jun-2
Aug-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Dec-2
U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Year-Over Change January 2000 - November 2023
Consumer Sentiment October 2020 – December 2023 100 79.8
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
60 $1,000 $1,000 40 $1,000 $1,000
69.7
Oct-23
Dec-23
Jun-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Oct-22
Dec-22
Aug-22
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
$0 $0 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D ‘23J F M A M J 2021 2022 ‘23 J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J MM AAC.MMGardner J J J J AA SS Policy OO NN DD JInstitute Source: Kem 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 ‘23‘23
$02020 $0 2020
Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – November 2023
3.1%
$200 $200 -2.0% $100 $100
2003
2008
2013
69.5% 69.5% 69.5% 69.5%
3.1%
Recession $100 $100 $0 $0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O O
F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAM J J A S OO 2020 F M A M J ofJ Labor A S O NStatistics D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S OO Source: Bureau 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
2021 2022 2023 $0 2020 $0 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S OO
900 900 900 900 800 800 800 800 600 600
2003
2008
2013
62.8%
62.8% 2023
2018
400 400 200 200 200 200 0 0 J F MAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A S O ND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAMJ J A SON J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAMJ J A SON 2020 2021 2022 2023 00 2020 J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN Note: The to better illustrate changes in the labor force 2020y-axis starts at 60%2021 2021 2022 2023 participation rate 2020 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Utah Taxable Retail Sales 5 January 2020 - October 2023 5
SLC International Airport Passengers 2.5 January 2020 - November 2023 2.5
2020 2020
55 4 4
2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
44 3 3
2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Millions Millions Millions Millions
Retail Sales Billions) Retail ($($Billions) Retail Sales ($ Retail SalesSales ($ Billions) Billions)
2023
600 600 400 400
62.8% 62.8% Recession 61% 62% 62% 61% U.S. Utah 60.2% U.S. Utah 60% 61% J F M A M60.2% 61% J J A S ONDJ F MA MJ J A S ONDJ F MA MJ J A S ONDJ F M AM J J A S O N 60% J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A U.S. MU.S.J J A SUtah O N D 2023 J F M AM J J A S O N Utah 2020 60.2% 60.2% 2021 2022 2023 60% 2020 60%
33 2 2
1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
22 1 1 11 0 0
2018
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - November 2023
8.0% 70% 70% 69% 70% 68.3% 70% 69% 6.0% 68.3% 68% 69% 69% 68% 68.3% 68.3% 4.0% 67.4% 67% 68% 68% 67.4% 67% 66% 67.4% 67.4% 67% 67% 66% 2.0% 65% 66% 66% 65% 0.0% 64% 65% 63.4% 65% 64% 63.4% 63% 64% 64% 63% 63.4% 63.4% -2.0%
$490,000 $490,000
$500 $500 4.0% $400 $400
$300 $300 0.0% $200 $200
Utah Aug-23
Millions $$Millions $$ Millions Millions
U.S.
62% 63% 63% 62%
$490,000 $490,000
$600 $600 $500 6.0% $500
$400 $400 2.0% $300 $300
20 $500 $500 $500 0$500
$600 8.0% $600
Sales Price Thousands) Sales ($($Thousands) Sales Price ($ Sales PricePrice ($ Thousands) Thousands)
$1,500 $1,500 80 $1,500 $1,500
1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5
J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A MJ J A S O
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A MJ J A S O 00 2020
0.5 0.5 0 0 J FMAMJ J A S OND J FMAMJ J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND JF MAM J J AS ON
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J A S O N 2020 2021 2022 2023
2020
2021
2022
2023
00 2020
2020 2020
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
2020 2020
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO
Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN 2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION