سه صورتک

‫‪ 26‬ﺩﺳـﺎﻣـﺒﺮ ‪2011‬‬

‫ﺻﺪﻭﺭ ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻥ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺭﺳﻤﻰ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﺯﻣﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺗﺎﺏ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﮔﺮﻭﻫﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﺭﺍﻙ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﻭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻘﺐﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺗﻨﺪﺭﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍ ﻣﺘﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻧــﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻓــﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺭﺋﻴﺲﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﺷــﻮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﺎﻣ ً‬ ‫ﻼ ﻣﺘﺨﺎﻟﻒ ﺯﺑﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺠﻴﺰﮔﻮﺋﻰ ﻭ‬

‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ »ﺿﺪﺟﻨﮓ« ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﮔﺸﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄــﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﭘﻴــﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻭﺑﻼگ ﺑــﻪ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻳﻜﺴــﻮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻘﺐﻧﺸــﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺳﻠﺐ ﻣﺴــﺌﻮﻟﻴﺖ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺒﺎﻝ ﺭﺧﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺳــﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤــﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ ﺧﺎﻙ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺮﻙ‬ ‫ﮔﻔﺘــﻪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ 15‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺗﻔﻨﮓﭼﻰ ﻣﺴــﻠﺢ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ‬ ‫»ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ« ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻐﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ‪،‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻋــﺮﺍﻕ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺧــﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﻳﺎﻧﻜﻰﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻚ »ﺭﺧﺪﺍﺩ« ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﺭﺳــﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺧﻠﻖﺍﷲ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ‪ 15‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻛﻮﻳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄــﺮ ﻭ ﺑﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺍﺷــﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﺭﺗﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻋﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺧﻠﻴﺞﻓﺎﺭﺱ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺳــﻌﻮﺩﻯ ﻋﻤ ً‬ ‫ﻼ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﭘﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭘﺮﺳﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬

‫ﺗﺎ ﻣﻐﺰ ﺍﺳــﺘﺨﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ »ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴﻮﻥ« ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺩﻟﻴﻞ »ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺳﺖ« ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻛﺎﺥﺳﻔﻴﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ »ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ« ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺍﺵ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﭼﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ؟ ﺧﻼﺻﺔ ﻛﻼﻡ‪ ،‬ﻃﻰ ﺳــﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻧﻪ ﺻﺪﺍﻡ ﺣﺴــﻴﻦ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺭﻳﻜﺔ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺣﺰﺏ ﺑﻌﺚ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻳﺎﻧﻜﻰﻫﺎ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﻣﻰﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ؟‬ ‫ﭘﺎﺳــﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ »ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﺟﻨﮓ« ﻛﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺎً‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﭘﻨﺘﺎﮔﻮﻥ ﺭﺍﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷــﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻧﺒﺮﺩ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴــﻢ! ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻋــﺮﺍﻕ ﻟﻨﮕﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺘﻪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ »ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴــﺖﻫﺎ« ﺭﺍ ﺩﺳــﺘﮕﻴﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺑﺮﺳــﺎﻧﺪ؛ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﺎﺱ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ! ﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺩﻳﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻪ »ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴــﻢ« ﻃﻰ ﺍﻳﻨﻤﺪﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ‪ ،‬ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺷــﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺸﺨﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴــﺖ ﺩﺳــﺘﮕﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﻤﻪ ﻭ ﻣﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫»ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴــﺖﻫﺎ« ﻫﺮ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻫﻢ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﺎﺷﻨﺎﺱﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ﻫﻴﭽﻜﺲ ﻫﻢ ﻣﺰﺍﺣﻢﺷﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ »ﺑﺴﺎﻣﺎﻧﻰ« ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻧﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ‪ :‬ﺗﻼﺵ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺟﻬــﺖ ﭼﭙﺎﻭﻝ ﻧﻔﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ‬ ‫»ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ« ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﺷــﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻗــﺪﺭﺕ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖﻧﺸــﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﺎﺳﻮﺳﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﺒﺮﭼﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﺓ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳــﻨﺘﻰ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥﻫﺎ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﭼﺸﻢﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺳﺘﭙﺎﭼﮕﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗــﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻛﺸــﺎﻧﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳــﺪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﭼﭙﺎﻭﻝ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺳــﻴﺮ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﭘﻨﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ »ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ« ﺟﺰ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻋﻘﺐﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻰ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺧﻠﻴﺞﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻧﻤﻰﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻋﻘﺐ ﻣﻰﻧﺸــﻴﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴــﻠﻤﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﻴﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﻭ »ﺑﻰﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﻴﺘﻰ« ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺭﺧﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺘﻦ‬

‫ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺻﺪﻫﺎ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻨﮕﭽﻰ ﻧﺘﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻛﺴﺐ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﺴــﺌﻠﺔ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﻴﺪﺭﻭﻛﺮﺑﻮﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴــﺖ ﻓــﺮﺍﻭﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺁﻳﻨﺪﺓ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ »ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻋــﺮﺏ« ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﭼﺸــﻢ ﻛﺎﺥﺳﻔﻴﺪ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻧﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ »ﺁﺷﻮﺏﺳــﺎﺯﻯ« ﺩﺭ ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﻟﻴﺒﻰ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻦ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﻘﻖﺍﺵ ﺧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴــﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﺑﺎ »ﺧﻮﺵﺑﻴﻨﻰ« ﺑﻴــﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫»ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ« ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ؛ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﺔ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴــﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻌﻀــﻞ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤــﺪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﻄﻊ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺚ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﻭ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰﻫﺎﻯ »ﺭﺷﺪ« ﻭ ﺷﻜﻞﮔﻴﺮﻯ »ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳﻰ«‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷــﺖ؛ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﻠﺐ ﺟﺪﺍﮔﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴــﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴــﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻳــﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤــﻮﻻﺕ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨــﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻧﺸــﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ »ﺁﺷﻮﺏﻫﺎﻯ« ﺑﺮﺧﺎﺳــﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ« ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻭ ﻧﺸﺴــﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳــﺌﻮﺍﻝ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻓﻮﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳــﺘﻴﻦ »ﺁﺷﻮﺏﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻰ« ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﭘﺎﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﻭﻳﮋﻩﺍﻯ ﮔــﺬﺍﺭﺩﻩ؛ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴــﻞ »ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺗﻴــﻚ« ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤــﻮﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫»ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ« ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳــﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﻫﺮﻡﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﮕﺰﺍﺭﻯ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻳﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ »ﭘﻮﺗﻴﻦ ـ ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ« ﻓﺮﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﺣﺬﻑ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺮﻣﻠﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺟــﺎﺯﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﭽﻨــﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻓﺸــﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﺎﻳﺴــﺘﺪ ﻭ ﺑــﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺳــﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻤﻨﺪ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻰ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ »ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ« ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺟﻨﺠﺎﻝ ﭘﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ« ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻫﺮﻡﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﮕﺰﺍﺭﻯ ﻛﺮﻣﻠﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﻭ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺷﺪﺓ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺎً ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﺳــﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳــﺎﺱ »ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻏﺮﺏ«‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻫﺠﻤــﺔ »ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ـ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ« ﻛﺮﻣﻠﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳــﻮﻯ ﺁﺏﻫﺎﻯ ﮔﺮﻡ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺴــﺎﻳﮕﺎﻥ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺳﺪ‬ ‫»ﻧﻔﻮﺫﻧﺎﭘﺬﻳﺮ« ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳــﺪ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺍ ً ﻧﻔﻮﺫﻧﺎﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺗﺮﻙ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻋﻀﻮ ﺭﺳــﻤﻰ ﭘﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ »ﺁﺗﻼﻧﺘﻴﻚ ﺷــﻤﺎﻟﻰ«‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﻭ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﺍﺳﺎﺳــﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑــﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﻬــﺪﺍﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﻭ »ﻋﻠﻨــﻰ«‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺬﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍﺋﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺖ ﻧﻈﺮﻯ ﻭ ﻋﻘﻴﺪﺗﻰ ﺍﻳﻔﺎ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﻟﻴــﻞ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳــﻦ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰ »ﻇﺎﻫﺮﻯ« ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫»ﺿﺪﻳــﺖ ﺑــﺎ ﻏﺮﺏ« ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﺷــﺪﻩ؛ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨــﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺍﺳــﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺟﺰ ﺷﻮﺧﻰ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺁﻧﻜﺎﺭﺍ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺣﻀــﻮﺭ ‪ 500‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺗﺮﻙ ﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﻧﺎﺗﻮ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ »ﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭ« ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺴــﺎﻁ »ﻏﺮﺏﺳــﺘﻴﺰﻯ« ﺑــﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺛﺎﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻫﺴــﺖ؛ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﭘﺎﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﻬﻘﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﮔﺬﺍﺷــﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﺍﺷﻴﺐ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﻭﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ‪ .‬ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳﻰ »ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻠﻰ«‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺸﺘﻰ ﻣﻼﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﭽﻪﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴــﺖ »ﺍﺑﺪﻣﺪﺕ« ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﺮﺩ؟ ﻣﻰﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ‬ ‫ﺩﺳــﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺑــﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﺪﻑ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺥ ﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﻜﻴــﻢ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺷﻴﺴــﻢ ﺩﻳﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺮﺩﻳﺪﻯ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺻﺤﻨﻪﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﻯﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫»ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺗﻴﻚ ـ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ« ﻭﺍﺷــﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﺑﺰﻭﺩﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻜﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘــﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎً ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﮔﻮﻫﺎﻯ ﺳــﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺳــﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺯﺑﺎﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﻓﺎﺭﺳــﻰ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﻛــﻰ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺑﻰ ﺯﻭﺯﻩ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺑﺪﻩ ﺑــﺮ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ »ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﻨﻰ« ﺳــﺮ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ؛ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻌﺒﻮﺩ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﺑــﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ ﺗﺎ ﻗﺎﺗﻞ ﺟﺎﻥﺍﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺗــﺎﺏ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﭘﺮﻭژﺓ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻧﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ« ﺭﻭﺷــﻦ ﺍﺳــﺖ؛ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻻﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺸــﺨﺺ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﻻﻳﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﺤﻴﺮﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﻝ »ﻣﻘﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻈــﻢ« ﻭ ﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻭﺑــﺎﺵ ﺑﻴﺖﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺷــﺎﻫﺪﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨــﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ‬

‫ﻣﻌﻤــﻮﻝ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺰﺧﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺷــﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﭘــﻮچ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﺣﻘﻮﻗﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻴﺎﻥ ﺟﺒﻬﻪ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻕﻭﻕﺻﺎﺣﺎﺏﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺒﻌﺚ ﺍﺯ »ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ« ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺷــﻮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍژﮔﺎﻧــﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻤﺎﺵ »ﺣﻖ«‪» ،‬ﻋﺪﺍﻟﺖ«‪» ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻜﺒﺎﺭﺳــﺘﻴﺰﻯ«‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ ...‬ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺯﺑﺎﻥ ﺗﻮﺣﺶ ﺩﻳﻦ ﻭ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺳﻮﺳﻤﺎﺭﺧﻮﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺻﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﻼﻡ‪ ،‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﻰ ﺟﺰ‬ ‫ﺳــﺮﻛﻮﺏ ﻣﺮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﻭ ﭘﺎﻳﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺟﻬﺖ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ‬ ‫»ﻋﺪﺍﻟﺖ ﺻﺤﺮﺍﺋﻰ« ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﺍﺫﻝ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﺑﺎﺵ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ »ﭘﻴﺎﻡ« ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﺩﻳﻮ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﻠﻮﻳﺰﻳﻮﻥ »ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ«‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺎﻧﻨﺪ‪ :‬ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺯ ‪ 22‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ﺳــﺎﻝ ‪ 57‬ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﭼﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﻨﺸــﺎﻫﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺷــﺨﺺ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﻭ ﻻﺕﻭﻟﻮﺕﻫﺎﻯ »ﻧﻬﻀﺖ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻇﺎﺩﻯ« ﻭ ﻟﺸــﻮﺵ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﻳﻜﺘﻪ ﺷــﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﻣﺴﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ ﺟﻔﻨﮕﻴﺎﺗــﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻤﺎﺵ »ﻧﺒﺮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ« ﻭ »ﺿﺪﻳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻏﺮﺏ« ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺫﻋﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺳﻖ ﻣﻰﺯﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻮپ ﻭ ﺗﻔﻨﮓ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﺸــﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺎﺩﻯﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻠﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻜﺮﺧﻮﺭﻯﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎً ﻣﻀﺤﻚ ﻭ ﺧﻨﺪﻩﺩﺍﺭ ﺷﺪﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ »ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ« ﻭ ﻻﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﺖﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﺿﻊ »ﺻﺪﺭﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ«‬ ‫ﭼﺎﺩﺭ ﺯﺩﻩﺍﻧــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺑﺎﺑــﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻧﺪﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﻓﻜﺮ ﺭﻭﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺳــﺨﺖﺗﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ! ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ »ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩﻧﮕﺮﻯﻫﺎ« ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻤﺎﺵ ﻛﺮﻭﺑﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺳﻮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﻭ ‪ ...‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ«‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺖ ﺑﺮﺧﺎﺳــﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ! ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻛﻪ ﻛﺎﻣ ً‬ ‫ﻼ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﺍﮔﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻴــﺮ ﺍﻭﻝ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺴــﺖ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈــﻢ ﻣﻰﺟﻬﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻫــﺪﻑ ﺍﺻﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﻜﻨﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺗﻴﺮﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﻋﻤﻮﺳﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻒ ﻣﻮﺳﻮﻯ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻭﺑﻰ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭙﺎﻟﻜﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﺎﻳﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷــﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﺒﺎﺭ ﺗﻴﺮﺵ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻗﻠﺐ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺍﺻﺎﺑﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻬﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﻮﺳﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﺑﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺦ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﻓﻮﺕ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﺒﺮﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﻳﺎﻧﻜﻰﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻟﻨﺪﻧﻰﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﺘﻴﻦ ﺭﺿﺎ ﭘﻬﻠﻮﻯ ﺑﻮﺩﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺩ‬

‫ﻛــﻪ ﻃﻰ ﺳــﺎﻟﻴﺎﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺯ ﻋﻤ ً‬ ‫ﻼ ﺟﺰ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻟﻪﺭﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺷﻮﺏﺳــﺎﺯﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻧﺪﺍﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚﺑــﺎﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻮﻕﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺑﻪ »ﺳﺘﺎﺭﺓ« ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺩﺑﻴﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺑﺴــﺘﺎﻧﻰ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ »ﺍﺟﻤﺎﻉ« ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﺍﻫــﺪﺍﻑ ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺗﻴﻚ ﻗﺪ ﻋﻠﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺭﺿﺎ ﭘﻬﻠﻮﻯ ﺍﺷــﻜﺎﻝ ﻋﻤﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ؛ ﺍﻳﺸــﺎﻥ ﺍﺻــﻮﻻً ﻧﻤﻰﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﭼﻴﺴــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ »ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ« ﺭﻧﮕﺎﺭﻧﮓ ﻫﻤﻨﺸﻴﻦﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﺸــﺎﻭﺭﺍﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﮔﺰﻳﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻚ »ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺕ« ﻫﻢ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺎﻓــﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠــﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻋﻠﻴﺤﻀﺮﺕ‪ ،‬ﻫﻢ ﺩﺑﺴــﺘﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻭ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺷﻴﺴــﺖ ﻭ ﺿﺪﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺗﻴﻚ‪ .‬ﺳﺮﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻓﻰ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺭﺓ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻭ ﭼﻮﻥ »ﻧﻈﺮﻯ«‪» ،‬ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻰ«‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﺑﻌــﺎﺩ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﻰ ﺁﻥ ﻛﺴــﺐ ﺍﻃﻼﻉ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﺷــﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺭﺿﺎ ﭘﻬﻠــﻮﻯ ﺍﺻﻮﻻً ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓــﺮﺩﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﻧﺎﺟﻰ ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳــﻰ« ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑــﺎ ﺍﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﺣﻘﻮﻗﻰ‬ ‫»ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥﻣﺤﻮﺭﻯ« ﺑﻴﮕﺎﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﻼﺻــﺔ ﻛﻼﻡ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻴﺎﻥ ﺳــﻪ ﻻﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺘﮕﺰﺍﺭﻯ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﺳــﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻚ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭﻯ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﺻﻮﻟﮕﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﻉ »ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ«؛ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﻉ »ﺟﻨﺒﺶ ﺳــﺒﺰ«‬ ‫ﻭ ﻻﺕﻫﺎﻯ »ﺧﻂﺍﻣﺎﻡ«؛ ﻭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ »ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳــﻰ«‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺍﺳــﺖ ﺍﻣﺜﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﺸﺒﺪ ﻧﺼﻴﺮﻯ! ﺑﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺎﺯﻳﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻪ ﻻﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﻌﺎﺭ »ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ« ﻣﻰﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﻴﮕﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﻴﺴــﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﺭﮔﺎﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﺮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺻﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣــﺮ ﻣﻘﺪﺱ »ﻧﺎﻥ ﻗﺮﺽ« ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺑــﻪ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻛﺎﺭﺩ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻐﺰ ﺍﺳــﺘﺨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺴــﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻥ »ﺍﺭﺑﺎﺏ« ﮔﻮﺵ ﻓﺮﺍﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻃﺮﻓﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﻨﺪ »ﺧﺎﻟﻰ« ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﺎﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪﻳﺴﻢ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺭﺿﺎﻣﻴﺮﭘﻨﺞ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺟﺎﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻤﺪﺭﺿﺎ ﭘﻬﻠﻮﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪﻙﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﻳــﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺰﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻫــﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻥ ﻳﻜﻰ »ﻧﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺁﺏ« ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟــﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻰ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﺳــﺖ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﺘﺤﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﻧﻘﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻏــﺮﺏ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻻﺕﻭﻟﻮﺕﻫــﺎ ﻫﻤﻪ »ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺮ ﺁﺏ« ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘــﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠــﻰ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻳﺎﻓﺘــﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺣﻀﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﺮﻏــﻢ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﻔﻠﻰ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻢ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﻡﻭﺍﺭ ﺧــﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ »ﻋﻠﻨﻰ«‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﻓﻜﺎﺭﻋﻤﻮﻣﻰ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎﺋﻰ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻰ »ﻣﺴــﺌﻮﻟﻴﺖ« ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴــﺌﻮﻟﻴﺖ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ ﺑــﺮﺍﻯ ﻓﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﭘﺸــﺖ ﺍﺭﺑﺎﺏﺷــﺎﻥ ﺳــﻨﮕﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻠﻰ‪» ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑــﺎﺕ« ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻧﻪ‬ ‫»ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖﺳــﺎﺯ«‪ .‬ﭼﻪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻛــﻪ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﻰ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺐ ﻭ ﺳــﻠﻄﻨﺖﻃﻠﺐ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺴــﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﻳﺮﻳﻨــﺔ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺶ ﻣﻬــﻮﻉ ﻭ ﺿﺪﺍﻧﺴــﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺎﺱ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺻﺤﻨﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺩﻣﻚﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻭﺍﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﭼﻨــﺪ ﺭﻭﺯ »ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻃﻠﺒﻰ« ﺑﻪ ﮔﺪﺍﺋــﻰ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻳﻮﺯﮔﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺭﮔﺎﻩ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻮﻟﮕﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺴــﺎﺏ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﻭﺳــﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻒﻧﻤﺎﻯﺷــﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺷﻦﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﺓ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺯﻧﻨﺪ‪.‬‬