خواب و خزان

‫‪ 25‬ﺳﭙﺘـﺎﻣﺒﺮ ‪2011‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺻﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ »ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ« ﻟﻴﺒﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻻﻳﻨﺤﻞ ﻣﻰﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ‬ ‫ﻭ ﮔﺮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﺓ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﻯ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻯ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺶ ﮔﺮﻭﻫﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫»ﻃﺎﻟﺒﺎﻥ« ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻫﺮ ﺭﻭﺯ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪﺗﺮ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﻧﻘﺶﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯﻫﺎﻯ«‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻳــﻦ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ »ﺍﺳــﻼﻡﺁﺑﺎﺩ ـ ﻭﺍﺷــﻨﮕﺘﻦ«‪ ،‬ﺩﻭ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﺟﺪﺍﺋﻰﻧﺎﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺩﻳﺮﻳــﻦ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺎﻣﺖ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻘﺸﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ »ﻧﺌﻮﻃﺎﻟﺒﺎﻥ« ﺑﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ »ﻧﺎﻣﺸــﺨﺺ« ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍﻳﻔﺎ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﻧﺎﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ؟ ﻭﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺮ‬ ‫ﺧﺘﻢ ﻧﻤﻰﺷــﻮﺩ؛ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻓﺮﺍﮔﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻫﺴﺘﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﮓ ‪ 33‬ﺭﻭﺯﻩ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﻰ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﮕﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻨﺘﻰ ﺗﻞﺁﻭﻳﻮ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻴﺮﻯ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﺎ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻣﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻦﺑﺴﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ‬

‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺳــﻜﻮﻯ ﭘﺮﺵ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﻧﺎﺗﻮ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎﻟﻴﺴــﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﻗــﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﺮﺯﺓ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻰ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻨﺘﻰ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻳﻜﻰ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻢ ﻓﺮﻭﻣﻰﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺩﻳﺮﻯ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺎﻡﺁﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﻭﺍﺯﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻧﻜﺎﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺳــﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟــﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺶ ﭼﻨﺪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺴــﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺒﻬﻤﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺎﺥﺳــﻔﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﻓــﻮﻕ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ »ﻧﻘﺶﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯ« ﻭﺍﺷــﻨﮕﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﻯ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻯ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﺔ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺰ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻛﺪﺍﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﻛﺮﺩ‪،‬‬

‫ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻧﻜﺘﺔ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻮﻁ »ﺭﺍﻫﺒﺮ« ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪» .‬ﻧﻜﺘﺔ ﻧﺨﺴــﺖ«‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﺎ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﺓ »ﺳــﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﺘﺨﺖ«‪ ،‬ﻣﺴــﻜﻮ‪ ،‬ﭘﻜﻦ ﻭ ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﻭ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﻘﺸﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫»ﺳــﻜﻮﺕ« ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖﺍﺵ ﺳﺮﭘﻮﺵ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪» .‬ﻧﻜﺘﺔ ﺩﻭﻡ« ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻂ »ﺭﺍﻫﺒﺮ« ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎ ﻣﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻨﻰ ﺭژﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺳﺖﻧﺸﺎﻧﺪﺓ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺴــﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺳﻌﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻛﺸﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ »ﺑﻬﺎﺭﺯﺩﻩ« ﺭﺍ‪،‬‬

‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﺓ »ﺳــﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﺘﺨﺖ« ﺩﺳﺖﻧﺨﻮﺭﺩﻩ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻛﺸﻰﻫﺎ ﺣﺘﻰﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻭﺭ »ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ« ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺸﻮﺩ! ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﺭﺧﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﮔﻨﮓ ﻭ ﺑﻰﭘﺎﻳﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ »ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﻋﺮﺏ« ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺰﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫»ﺑﻴﺪﺍﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ« ﻧﺎﻡ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻪ ﺑﻬﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺪﺍﺭﻯﺍﻯ؛ ﻫﻴﺎﻫﻮﺋﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﺮﺏﺯﺑﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺷــﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻧﻮﺭﺩﻳﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ »ﺧﻮﺍﺏ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻥ« ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻧﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ »ﻧﻜﺘــﺔ ﺁﺧــﺮ« ﺍﻳﻨﻜــﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺒــﺎﻁ ﮔﻨﮓ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺸــﻜﻞﺁﻓﺮﻳﻨﻰ ﺑﭙــﺮﺩﺍﺯﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻢ ﻣﺴــﻜﻮ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﻭﺍﺷــﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻣــﺎﺕ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻰ ﺗﻮﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﭘﺎﻳﺘﺨﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﻮﺷــﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺐ ﺷﺎﻫﻮﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺩﻡﭘﺴﻨﺪ »ﺍﺳﻼﻡ« ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊﺷﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺁﺧﻮﺭ ﻭﻳﮋﺓ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺸﺖﺍﺵ »ﻗﺸﻮ« ﺑﻜﺸﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻴﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫»ﺣﻴﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﺠﻴﺐ«‪ ،‬ﻫﻢ ﺩﻝ ﺗﻮﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺳــﺘﻰ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻭﮔﻮﺵ »ﺩﻳﻦﻓﺮﻭﺷﺎﻥ« ﺭﺳﻤﻰ ﻭ ﺳﻨﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺣﻮﺯﻭﻯ ﺑﻜﺸﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﺟﺎﻟﺐﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻻﻳﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﺻﺮ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻴــﻦ »ﻧﻜﺘﺔ ﺁﺧﺮ«‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭﻯ ﺳــﻨﺘﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﻭﺑﻪ ﺭﺷــﺪ »ﻧﻮﻳﻦ« ﺑﺎ ﺩﻳﻦﺑﺎﻭﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞﮔﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺎﺳــﻰ ﻭ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﺓ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺩﺍﺭﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻮﭘﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴــﻜﻮ‪ ،‬ﭘﻜﻦ ﻭ ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺴــﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﻘﺎﻃــﻊ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ؛ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻧﻘﺶ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺩﺓ ﺍﻣﭙﺮﺍﺗﻮﺭﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺁﺳــﻴﺎﻯ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻯ ﻭ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎﻯ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺭﻳﺸــﻪﺍﻯ ﻳﻜﺼﺪﻭﭘﻨﺠﺎﻩ ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻰ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﺍﻯ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺩﺳــﺖ‬ ‫ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺩﻭ ﻗﻄﺐ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ‪ ،‬ﭘﻜﻦ ﻭ ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻳﻚﺳــﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﺑﺎ ﺩﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻳﺴــﺘﺎﺋﻰ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞﺷﺎﻥ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﮔﻤﺎﻧﻪﺯﻧﻰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺑﻼگ »ﻛﺮﺑﻼﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩﺍﻧﻞ«‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﺴــﻜﻮ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺻــﺖ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻣﻮﻛﻮﻝ ﻛﺮﺩﻳــﻢ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺑﻼگ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺳــﻌﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺋﻰ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻮﻳﻦ‬ ‫»ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ـ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ« ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﺔ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻰ ﻧﺨﺴــﺖ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ‪ ،‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﺩﺭ ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺪﺍﺯﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻰ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴﻮﻥﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﻮﺳــﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ »ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﺟﺎﻧﺒﺪﺍﺭﻯ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺳــﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﻩﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﭙﺮﺍﺗﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻫﻨﺪﻭﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﭘﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻦ »ﻣﺬﻫﺐ« ﺍﻗﻮﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺬﻫﺐ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪» ،‬ﻣﺨﺮﺏ« ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻧﺸــﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺬﻫﺐ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﻤﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫»ﺍﺣﺘﺮﺍﻡ« ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺷــﺖ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺗﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻢ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺒﺔ »ﺩﻭﺳــﻮﻳﻪ« ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺷــﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﺎﻝ »ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻴﻜﻦﻫﺎ« ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻳﺎﻧﻜﻰﻫﺎ ﻧﺸــﺪ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻦﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺧــﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻔــﺎﻯ »ﺟﺎﻥﭘﻨﺎﻩﻫــﺎﻯ« ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺳــﻨﮕﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘــﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﭽﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻣﻠﻤﻮﺳﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃــﻖ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻧﺪﺍﺷــﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ »ﺟﻨﮓ‬ ‫ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﻣﻔﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﻣﻰﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴــﻮﻥﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻨــﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺗﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺟﻨﮓ« ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﺣــﺪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﻣﻦ ﺯﺩﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳــﺎﻥ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﺮﺍﻉ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﭘﺎﻛﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤ ً‬ ‫ﻼ ﺩﺳــﺖﺍﻧﺪﺭﻛﺎﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﭘﺪﻳﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﻫﻨﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻡ »ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ـ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺬﻫﺐ« ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑــﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺟﻨﮓﺳــﺮﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﭘﺪﻳﺪﻩ« ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻣﻮﻯ ﺩﻣﺎﻍ ﻫﻨﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﺘﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﺸــﻮﻳﻚﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺎﺋﻮﺋﻴﺴــﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﻯ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ ﻭ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﻯ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻀﺎﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ »ﺩﻳﻦﻓﺮﻭﺷﻰﻫﺎ« ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻧﻤﻰﮔﺮﻓﺖ؛ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻏﺮﺑﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﻣﻦ ﺯﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﺗﺶ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺍﺑﺎﺋﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺷــﺘﻨﺪ! ﻭﻟﻰ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﻰ ﺩﻳﻮﺍﺭﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺘﻰ »ﺟﻨﮓﺳﺮﺩ« ﻭ ﭘﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﻭ ﭘﻜﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺷــﺒﻜﺔ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺩﺍﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻏﺮﺏ ﻃﻰ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺳــﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﺍﺳﺮ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﻨﻴﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺷــﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ »ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻝﺁﻓﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻰﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻧﺨﺴــﺘﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﻰ »ﺩﻳﻮﺍﺭ ﺑﺮﻟﻦ« ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻢ ﺑﺮﻧﺪﺍﺷﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﻯ‬

‫ﭼﺮﻳﻜﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎﻥﻧﺸــﻴﻦ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎً‬ ‫ﺷــﻮﺭﺍﺋﻰ ﺩﻟﻴﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺿﺢ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻡ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻤﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻢ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻴﻜﻪ ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﻴﻤﺎً ﻣﻨﺎﻓــﻊ ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻫﺪﻑ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﺪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ ﺳﻮﺍﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺐ ﺷﺎﻫﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﺎﺕ »ﺑﻴــﻦﺩﻭﻝ« ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﺮﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻴﻜﻪ ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﻭ ﻣﺴــﻜﻮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﺋﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺻﺮﻑ ﺍﺯ »ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﺮﺍﻯﺷــﺎﻥ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ »ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻰ«‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻳﺖﺷﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ ‪ 11‬ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﻧﻴﻮﻳﻮﺭﻙ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭﭘﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺧﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭼﺮﺧﺶ ﻭﺳﻴﻌﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺣﺎﻣﻰ »ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭ ﻧﻨﺸﺴﺘﻨﺪ؛ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺭﺳــﻴﺪﻥ ﺩﻳﻤﻴﺘﺮﻯ ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻼﺷﻰ ﺟﻬﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻋﻰ »ﺩﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ« ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﻼﺷﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺘﺎً ﺩﺍﻣﻦ ﺯﺩﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ »ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺣﻀﻮﺭ »ﺭﺳــﻤﻰ« ﺍﺳﻘﻒ ﺍﻋﻈﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺴﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﺗﺪﻭﻛﺲ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻠﺴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً ﺑﺎ ﺗﺼﺎﻭﻳﺮ‬ ‫»ﺩﻟﭙﺬﻳﺮ« ﺍﻳﺸــﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻤﺮﺩﺍﻥ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻫــﺪﻑ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﺔ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ »ﻣﺴــﻴﺤﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺪﻭﻛﺲ«‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫــﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻌﻀﻰﻫــﺎ ﻣﻰﭘﻨﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺭﺳــﺎﺯ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ؛ ﻣﮕﺮ ﺍﺳﻘﻒ ﻛﺎﻧﺘﺮﺑﺮﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻠﺴﺎﺕ ﺭﺳﻤﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬ ‫ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﮕﺮ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﺍﻥ ﻛﻠﻴﺴــﺎﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺟﻠﺴــﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷــﺮﻛﺖ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ؟ ﭘﺎﺳــﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺮﺳــﺶﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻧﻘﺶﺁﻓﺮﻳﻨﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﺸــﺖﭘﺮﺩﺓ »ﺩﻳﻦﻓﺮﻭﺷــﺎﻥ« ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻏــﺮﺏ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﮕﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﻴﺴــﺘﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﭘﺲ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳــﺪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻋﻤ ً‬ ‫ﻼ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻭ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫»ﺩﻭﻟــﺖ ـ ﻣﺬﻫﺐ« ﺑﻪ ﺑﻴﺮﺍﻫﻪ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺷــﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻻﺋﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﻭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺑﺮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﻴﻦ »ﻧﺎﻛﺎﻣﻰﻫﺎ« ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖﻫــﺎﻯ ﻏــﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺭﻭﺳــﻰ ﻭ ﭼﻴﻨﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺍﺗــﺐ ﭘﻴﺶﺭﻭﺗﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺘــﺮ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻏﺮﺑﻰﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺵ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻠﺐ ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊﺷﺎﻥ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ »ﺩﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺩﺍﺭﻯ« ﺭﺍ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ ﻛﻬﻦ ﻭ ﺷــﻴﻮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺮﻭﻥﻭﺳــﻄﺎﺋﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪ؛ ﺧﻼﺻﺔ ﻛﻼﻡ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺴﺎﺯﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻚ‬

‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ »ﺳﻜﻮﻻﺭ« ﺳــﺨﻦ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ »ﺩﻳﻦ« ﻧﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﻴﺮ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ »ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻰ« ﻭ »ﺣﻘﻮﻗﻰ« ﺑﺎﻗــﻰ ﻣﻰﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺩﻋﺎﻯ »ﺗﻘﺪﺱ« ﻭ »ﻓﺮﺍﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻰﺍﺕ« ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳــﺌﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﮔﺮﻳﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﻘﻒ ﻛﻠﻴﺴﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺪﻭﻛﺲ ﻭ ﻛﺸﺎﻧﺪﻥ ﻭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺭﺳﻤﻰ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ ﭼﻪ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻓﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﮔﻤﺎﻧﻪﺯﻧﻰ ﺑــﻪ ﻓﺮﻳﺎﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺭﺳــﺪ؛ ﻭ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﻴﻢ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﻏــﺮﺏ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﺔ »ﺟﻨــﮓ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ« ﻣﺘﻜﻰ‬ ‫ﻛــﺮﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻧﻜــﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﺎﺱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ »ﺻﻠﺢ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ«‬ ‫ﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩﻩ! ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﻜﻴﻪﻛﻼﻡ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫»ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ« ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸــﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺐ ﺷﺎﻫﻮﺍﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺻﻠﺢ ﻭ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﻣﻴــﺎﻥ ﺍﺩﻳﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺣﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻴــﺶ ﺭﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻭﻳﮋﻩﺍﻯ »ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ« ﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ »ﺩﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ« ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸــﻜﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺻﻮﻻً ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ »ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﺪﻭﻛﺲ« ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﺸــﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻯ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﻭﻳﮋﻩﺍﺵ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﻧﺎﻙ ﻭ »ﺍﻧﺰﻭﺍﺁﻓﺮﻳﻦ« ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺘﻤﺪﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﮕﺰﺍﺭ ﺁﻧﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻰ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﻰ ﻫﻤﺨﻮﺍﻧﻰ ﺩﺍﺷــﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻫﻤﺨﻮﺍﻧﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﻧــﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴــﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﺔ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ ﻭ ﻧﻘﺶ »ﺩﻳﻦ« ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻃﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺎﺳــﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑــﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻭﺩﻑ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤــﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﺼــﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳــﻖ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭﻯ ﺭﻭﺍﺑــﻂ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ »ﻓﺮﺍﺩﻳﻨﻰ«‪ ،‬ﻭ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺵ ﻻﻳﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮﻗــﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍژﺓ »ﺷــﻬﺮﻭﻧﺪ« ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺧــﻮﺩ ﻣﻌﻨﺎ ﻭ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻫﺪ؛ ﭘﺮ ﻭﺍﺿﺢ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﻏــﺮﺏ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎً ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻒ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺵ »ﺗﻘﺪﺱ« ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎﻥﻧﺸــﻴﻦ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺑــﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻥ ﺟﻨﺒﺶﻫﺎﻯ »ﺧﻠﻖﺍﻟﺴــﺎﻋﻪ« ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻮﻝﻭﻭﻻﻯ ﭘﺎﻳﺘﺨﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ »ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳﻰ« ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﻟﻘﺐ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻫﻢ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺶ »ﭼﻨﺪﮔﺎﻧﺔ« ﻛﺎﺥﺳﻔﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪﺳــﺎﺯ ﺷــﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸــﺖ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 1967‬ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ ﻛﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﺋﻰ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﺸــﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻠﻞ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﭼﻮﺏ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ »ﻭﺗﻮ«‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻣﻰﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳــﺘﻔﻬﺎﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﺎﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮓ« ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻳﻚ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﺍﺩ؛ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻰﻫﺮﺍﺳﺪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ »ﺻﻠﺢ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ«‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ﻭ ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻔﺎﻯ ﺁﻥ ﻧﺸﺴﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﺍﻫﺮﻡﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﮕﺰﺍﺭﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺮﻭﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻗﻤﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺒﺎﺯﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷــﺎﻫﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺸــﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺻﻠﺢﻃﻠﺐ ﺑﺮ ﺟﻨــﺎﺡ »ﻧﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎﻫﻮ« ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ »ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﺮﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳــﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﺕ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻯ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺕﻫﺎﻯ »ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ«‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺕ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﻯ ﺳــﺎﺑﻘﺎً ﺷﻮﺭﺍﺋﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺷﺎﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬ ‫»ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ« ﻧﻴﺴﺖ! ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻫﺮﻡﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻌﻴﻒ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ »ﺑﻦﺑﺴﺖ« ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺗﻰ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺭﺳــﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﻋﺮﺏ« ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺑﻬﺎﺭ«‬ ‫ﻛــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺑــﺎ ﺟﻨﮓ ﻭ ﺩﺭﮔﻴــﺮﻯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﻣــﺰﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻏﺮﺑــﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺖ ﻣﺴــﻜﻮ‪ ،‬ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧﻮ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺖ ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻰ ﭘﻜﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻦﺑﺴــﺖ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ‪ .‬ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﺨﺎﺻﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﻃﻠﺒﺪ!‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻝ »ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﻰ« ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﺍﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﺸــﺪﻩ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻰ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺟــﺰ ﻣﺎﻧــﺪﻩ؛ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﺠﺰ ﺿﻌﻒ ﻏــﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﻰﺭﺳــﺎﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻃﻰ ﻳﻜﺼﺪﻭﭘﻨﺠﺎﻩ ﺳــﺎﻝ ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩﻫﺎﻯ »ﺗﺤﺖﺍﻟﺤﻤﺎﻳﺔ« ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻻﺋﻞ »ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ« ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺻﺮﻓﺎً »ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ«‬ ‫ﻏﺮﺏ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻀﻮﻳﺖ ﻓﻠﺴــﻄﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳــﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻠﻞ ﭘﻰ ﺑﺒﺮﻳﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷﻨﺎﺳــﺎﺋﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻓﻠﺴــﻄﻴﻦ‪» ،‬ﺷﻨﺎﺳــﺎﺋﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺳــﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ« ﺭﺍ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻣﻰ‬

‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﺋﻰ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻛﺎﻧﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ »ﺗﻘﺪﺱﭘﺮﻭﺭ«‬ ‫ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﻰ »ﺍﺳﻼﻡ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ« ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻛﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺭﺩﻭﻏﺎﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻴﺮﻏﻢ ﻫﺎﻯﻭﻫﻮﻯ ﻓﺮﺍﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﺮﻋﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺄﻣﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﻨﺎﻫــﮕﺎﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻳﺎﻧﻜﻰﻫﺎ ﭘﻨﺪﺍﺷــﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﻦ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎﻥ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻧﺎﺑﻮﺩﻯ ﭘﻰﺩﺭﭘﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻭ ﻣﻬﺮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴــﺘﺎﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﭘﺎﻛﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻫﺮﻡﻫﺎﺋــﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻯ‬ ‫‪ 22‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪ 57‬ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺷﺎﻫﻨﺸــﺎﻫﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯﺍﺵ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻫﻤﺠﻮﺍﺭﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻮﺍﺣﻞ ﺧﺰﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﭼﺎﺭﻩﺍﻯ ﺟﺰ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺷــﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻯ »ﻣﺴﻜﻮ‬ ‫ـ ﺩﻫﻠﻰﻧــﻮ« ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻳــﺪ ﺑﺒﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﭘﺮﻭژﺓ‬ ‫»ﺻﻠﺢ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻰﺍﻓﺘﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﺎ ﺑﺎ ﭼﺮﺧﺸﻰ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺍﻣﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ »ﺟﻨــﮓ ﻣﺬﺍﻫﺐ« ﻓﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺍﻧﺴﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬