25ﺁﻭﺭﻳــﻞ 2011
ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻭﻳــﮋﺓ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎﻯ ﺷــﻤﺎﻟﻰ ،ﺑﺤــﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ »ﺭﻫﺒﺮ« ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ ﺗــﺎ ﻛﺠﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ؟ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ« ﺻﺮﻓﺎً ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺸﻪﻫﺎﻯﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻠﻨﻰ ﺷــﺪﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺗﻰ ﺟﺴــﺘﺠﻮ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﻭﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ .ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺷﺘﺎﺑﺰﺩﺓ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺗﻰ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺁﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ
ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﻔﻞ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻯ 22ﺑﻬﻤﻦ 57ﺑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳــﺘﺎ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﭽﻪ ﻭ ﺩﻻﺋﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ!« ﺭﻭﺯﻯ ﻛــﻪ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕﻫــﺎﻯ ﺭﺃﻯ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻛﺸــﻴﺪﻩ ﺷﺪ ،ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ ،ﻭﻯ ﺗﻨﻬــﺎ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑــﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ »ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﮕﺎﻥ« ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ،ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺣﻀﻮﺭﺵ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻗﻮﺓ ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻛﻨﺪ .ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺷــﺪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺍﺯﺍ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺸــﺎﻧﺪ .ﭘﺲ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺳﺮﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ،ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ،ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ
ﻛﻪ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺷــﻬﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﺵ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺴﻰ ﺑﻪ »ﻣﺴﺠﺪ« ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﺋﻰﺍﺵ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ .ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻛﺮﻣﻠﻴﻦ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺧﺮﺩﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺑــﻰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺁﻣﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ »ﻣﺜﺒﺖ« ﭘــﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺍﺷــﺘﻪ ،ﻓﻀــﺎﻯ »ﺩﻳﻦﺧﻮﺋﻰ« ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﺨﺴــﺖﻭﺯﻳﺮﻯ ﻣﻴﺮﺣﺴــﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺳﻮﻯ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺳــﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﺳﺎﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻯ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻢ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﺎﻧﻨﺪ. ﻭﻟﻰ ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳــﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻏــﺮﺏ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ـ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺍﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ« ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﻧﻤﺎﻳــﺪ ـ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ
ﻧﺮﺳﻴﺪ! ﺭﺍﻳﺰﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎ ﻧﺎﻛﺎﻡ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩ ،ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺒﻌﺎﺕ »ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ« ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﺌﻠﻪ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﻩﺑﻨﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﺷــﻮﺩ .ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﺳــﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺳﺎﻯ ﻗﻮﺍﻯ ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻘﻨﻨﻪ ،ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻭﺑﻰ ،ﺑﺠﺎﻯ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺯﻣﻴﻨــﺔ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳــﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ »ﺩﻳﻦﺧﻮﺋﻰ« ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺸــﻰ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ،ﻣﺴــﺎﺋﻞ ﺟﺎﺭﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﻭﺍژﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺪﺍﻳﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ،ﺑﻪ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺏ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻰ ﺷــﻬﺮﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﺍﻧﺪﻧﺪ! ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ، ﻧﺎﻣﺔ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺮﻭﺑﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺏ »ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻯ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺕ« ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﺨﺮﻩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ »ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﮕﺰﺍﺭﻯ« ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﻓﻨﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﻮﺩ .ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻧﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺁﺏ ﻓﺮﺍﻭﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻳﺪﻧﺪ ،ﻧﺎﺧﺸﻨﻮﺩﻯ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ﻛﺎﻣ ً ﻼ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﻮﺩ. ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻭﺍﭘﺲﮔﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧــﻮﻉ »ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ«، ﻛﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﺻﻠﻰﺍﺵ »ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ« ﺑﻬﻴﻨﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻪ ﺩﻫﺔ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴﻮﻥﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ ،ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻫــﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫــﺎﻯ »ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺗﻰ« ﻭ »ﻫﻨﺮﻯ« ﻭ ...ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺷــﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺣﺪﺕ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﭘﻴﮕﻴﺮﻯ ﺷــﺪ .ﻭﻟــﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ،ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﻃﻰ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺸﺎﺕ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺗﻰ« ﺳﺎﻝ 1388ﺑﻪ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﻴﺮﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺳــﻮﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻨﺼﺮﻯ ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺑﮕﺮ ﻭ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻜﻴﻢ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﻫﺎﻯ »ﺩﻳﻦﺧﻮﺋــﻰ« ﺩﺭ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻋﻠﻨﻰ ﺷــﺪ .ﺍﻳﻨﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻚ »ﻣﺮﺩﻡﺩﻭﺳــﺘﻰ« ﺍﺯ ﭼﻬــﺮﺓ ﻛﺮﻳــﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒــﺎﻥ ﻓﺮﻭ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺷﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺴــﺨﺮﺓ »ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﻮﺭﺍﻧﻰ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ ﺭﻭﺷــﻦﺿﻤﻴﺮ« ﻭ ﻋﺮﺑﺪﺓ »ﺍﷲﺍﻛﺒــﺮ« ﻭ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺰﺧﺮﻓﺎﺗﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ »ﺍﺳــﺘﻘﻼﻝ ،ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻯ ،ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ« ﻳﺎ
»ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ« ﺗﻮﺳــﻂ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﺵ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺷــﻬﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺷﺒﺎﻉ ﻛﺮﺩ. ﺑﻪ ﻃــﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻــﻪ» ،ﺩﺭ« ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺎﺷــﻨﻪ ﻣﻰﭼﺮﺧﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒــﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻫــﺮ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺍﮔــﺮ ﻇﺎﻫــﺮﺍ ً ﺣﻜﻮﻣــﺖ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻣﻰﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻧﺪ ،ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺳــﺮﻛﻮﺑﮕﺮﺍﻧﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺸــﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺷــﺮﻛﺎء ﺭﺍ ﺍﻳﻨﺒﺎﺭ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺧﻮﺍﺳــﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻣﻰ« ﺍﺯ ﭘﻨﺠﺮﻩ »ﻭﺍﺭﺩ« ﻛﻨﻨﺪ! ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺍﺳــﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﺍﻯ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺷﺎﻣﻮﺭﺗﻰﺑﺎﺯﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺲ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺑﺠﺎﺋﻰ ﻧﻤﻰﺑﺮﺩ .ﻓﺸــﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺗﺎ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﺑﺎﻻ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ »ﺳــﻔﻴﺮ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎ« ،ﻳﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺳــﺎﻳﻤﻮﻥ ﮔﺎﺱ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻑ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﺸــﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻮﺍﺭﻧﺎﻣﺔ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ ،ﺗﻮﺳــﻂ ﺳــﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺁﺗﻼﻧﺘﻴﻚ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺷﺪ! ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺁﻣﺪ ﻓﺸﺮﺩﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﺮ ﻗﻮﺓ ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﻮﺩ .ﻭﻟــﻰ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﮔﻔﺘﻪﺍﻳﻢ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻛﺸــﻴﺪﻥ ﮔﻠﻴﻢ ﺧــﻮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺏﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻣﺘﻼﻃﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ .ﻭ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﺸــﻜﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻗﺪ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﮕﻰ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﺤﻔﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨــﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴــﻦ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ .ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ ،ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﺻﻮﻟﮕﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ »ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﺭﮔﺮﻯ« ﺑﻪ ﺷــﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ ،ﻓﻘﻂ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺣﻴﺎﻯ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ؛ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺗﺨﺮﻳﺐ ﭘﻞﻫــﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻯ 22ﺑﻬﻤﻦ 57ﺭﺍ ﺷــﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﻤﻰﺷﺪ ،ﻭ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ .ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ،ﺩﻳﺮ ﻳﺎ ﺯﻭﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺴــﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﻭﺩﺭﺭﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨــﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺍﺗﺐ ﺑــﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚﺗﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭ.
ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳــﺪ »ﻣﻴﻌــﺎﺩ« ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺷــﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩ! ﻃﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺡ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑــﺎﺕ« ،ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻫــﺎﻯ ﺁﺧﻮﻧــﺪﻯ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﮕﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺍﺻﻮﻟﮕﺮﺍﺋــﻰ« ﻭ »ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻣﺮ« ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻛﻨﺘــﺮﻝ ﺧﻮﺩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻨﺰﻭﻯ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ .ﻋﻤﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺁﺏ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﺏ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻧﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻳﺨــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﺰﺩﻳــﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ .ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺳــﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ ،ﺍﮔﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﺍﻣﺘــﺪﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ،ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑــﺎﺕ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻚ »ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻣﺮ« ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤــﺖ ﺍﻧﻘﻴﺎﺩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺰﻭﺍ ﻣﻰﻛﺸــﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺟﺰ ﻫﻴﺎﻫﻮﺳﺎﻻﺭﻯ ﻣﻔﺮﻯ ﻧﻤﻰﺟﻮﻳﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎً ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ »ﻣــﺎﺭﻙﺩﺍﺭ« ﻓﺮﺍﻫــﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ .ﺑــﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺑﺎﻃﻞ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺳﻴﺪﺧﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﻳﻢ ،ﺭﻭﺯ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮ ،ﺭﻭﺯﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮ ،ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺏ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮ! ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺧﻮﺍﺏ ﺧﻮﺷــﻰ« ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﻳﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ .ﺑــﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ،ﺍﮔﺮ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﭼﺮﺧﺸﻰ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮ ﻣﻰﺑﻮﺩ ﺳﻔﻴﺮ ﻣﻠﻜﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺘﻀــﺎﺡ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ .ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺪﺍﺭ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺪ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﻴﺪﻩ ،ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺎً ﺩﻟﻴﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚﺷــﺒﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺯﺳــﺎﺯﻯ ﺷﻮﺩ، ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ .ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔــﻊ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ .ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﻫﻪ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﻯ ﻓﺮﺳﺎﻳﺸﻰ ﺳﻪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻨﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻟﻴﺒﻰ ،ﺳﻮﺍﺣﻞ ﺑﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭ ﻛﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﺮﺑﻪﻓﻠﻚ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﺓ ﻳﻤﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ؛ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ »ﻛﺎﺥ ﺑﺎﻛﻬﻴﻨﮕﻬﺎﻡ« ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻪ ﺗﻨﮕﺔ
ﻫﺮﻣﺰ ،ﺷﺎﺥ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﻭ ﺟﺒﻞﺍﻟﻄﺎﺭﻕ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ .ﺟﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻳﻨﻜــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎ ،ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑــﻪ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺭﻭﺍﻝ ﻣﻌﻬﻮﺩ، ﺣﺎﺿــﺮ ﺑــﻪ ﻧﻘﺶﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ! ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠــﻪ ،ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛــﻪ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﻨﺪﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﻩ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻻﺋﻞ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ .ﺭﻭﻳﺎﺭﻭﺋﻰﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﺎﺭﻳﻜﺎﺗﻮﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﻴــﻢ ،ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ﻣﻠﻜﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﺰﺍﺑــﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺎﻫﺮگﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓــﻼﺱ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ ،ﻏﻼﻡ ﺟﺎﻥﻧﺜﺎﺭﺵ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﻩ ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ. ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺎ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳــﻦ »ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ« ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻗﻄﻌﻰ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺑﻰﺍﻋﺘﺒــﺎﺭﻯ ﻭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ .ﺷﻖ ﺩﻭﻣﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ؛ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻔﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﻴﺖ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ »ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ« ﺭﺍ ﻣﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ .ﺩﺭ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﻨﺎﺭﻩﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ،ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ،ﻋﻠﻰﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺳــﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺴﺎﻁ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ« ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﺩ؛ ﻭﻟﻰ ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺗﻰ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎً ﺧﻨﺪﻩﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻃﺮﻓﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻳﺎﻓــﺖ ﻭ ﺑــﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺷــﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﻧﮕﻬﺒﺎﻥ ﺑــﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ ،ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﻣﻮﺳــﻮﻡ ﺑﻪ »ﻓﺘﻨﻪ« ،ﻳﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ »ﻣﺎﺭﻙﺩﺍﺭ« ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻖ ﺷــﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺤﺮﻭﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ؛ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ »ﻋﻠﻰ« ﻣﻰﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺣﻮﺽﺍﺵ! ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﻄﻊ ﺳــﻌﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﻓﺸﺮﺩﻩﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﭼﺸــﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ .ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﻧﺰﻭﺍﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ» ،ﺩﻭﺭ« ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻔﺘﺪ .ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﻣﻰﺗــﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﻣﺬﻛــﻮﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳــﺘﻴﻦ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﺷــﺘﻪ .ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ
ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﭼﺸﻢ ﺍﻣﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻼﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ،ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻮﺕﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺳــﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪﻥ ﺧﺮ ﻟﻨﮓﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮ ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ »ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺖﺟﻮﻳﺎﻧﺔ« ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺧﻼﺹ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ ﺁﻗﺎﺑﺎﻻﺳــﺮﻯ »ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ« ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﺩ، ﻭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺩﺳــﺖﺍﺵ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳﻨﮓ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ. ﻭﻟــﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﺒﻨــﺪﻯ ﺩﻭﻡ ،ﻳﻌﻨــﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﻭﺍﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﻛﻨﺪ، ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻫﻢ ﺑﺮﭼﺴﺐ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻰﻗﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺷــﺮﻁ ﺍﺯ ﻭﻟﻰﻓﻘﻴﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺸــﺎﻧﻰﺍﺵ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﺩ ،ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻴﻒ »ﺍﭘﻮﺯﻳﺴــﻴﻮﻥ« ﺑﻨﺸــﻴﻨﺪ .ﺑــﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺭﻭ ﺷــﺪﻩ ،ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﭘﻨﻬﺎﻥﺷﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻴﺖﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﺷــﻜﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ .ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻀﻌﻴﻒ ﭼﺸــﻤﮕﻴﺮ »ﺟﻨﺒﺶﺳــﺒﺰ« ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴــﻢ ﺑــﻮﺩ ،ﻭ ﺑﺎﻧــﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻟﺘﺮﻧﺎﺗﻴــﻮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ! ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻔﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ،ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺑﺎ »ﺍﺥﻭﺗﻒ« ﻭ ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎً ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ »ﺑﻴﺦﺩﻳﻮﺍﺭﻯ« ﺑﺎ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﺩﺭﺍﻥ ﻻﺭﻳﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﺮ ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﺳﺮ ﻫﻢ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ .ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﻜﺴﺖ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺗﻰ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺑﺮ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺠﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﺄﺻﻠﻰ ﺳﻬﻞ ﻭ ﺁﺳﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﺁﻣﺪﻥ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯ ﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺷﻖ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﻮﺩ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻖ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯﺍﺵ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﺋﻞ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻴﻢ؛ ﺑــﺎﺯﻯ ﺟــﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﻮﺵﻭﮔﺮﺑﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻡ ﻣﻰﺑﺨﺸــﺪ .ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣــﺎ ﭼﻨﻴــﻦ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻠﻰ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻪ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﻯ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑــﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺶ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ .ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺲ ﭘﺮﺩﻩ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺷــﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑــﺎﻻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ ﺑﺮ
ﺭﺍﺑﻄﺔ »ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ـ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ« ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ ،ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺍﺻﻄﻜﺎﻙﻫﺎﻯ ﺷــﺪﻳﺪﺗﺮ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﻢ. ﺑــﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ،ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻨﺠــﺎ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺷﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ. ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﺍﺳــﺮ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ،ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﻭ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﻯ ﻣﺮﻛــﺰﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻧﻮﺭﺩﻳﺪﻩ ،ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻪ .ﻫﻴﭽﻜﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺯﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﺴــﺎﺋﻞ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ »ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻯ« ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ ،ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﺳــﻌﻰ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻫﻢﭘﺎﻟﻜﻰﻫﺎﻯﺷﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟــﻰ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﺍﺏ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ »ﺳــﺎﻟﻢ« ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﺑﻜﺸــﻨﺪ .ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻘﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺻﺤﻨﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻣﻨﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻨﺎﺡﺑﻨﺪﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺗﺎ ﭼﻪ ﺣﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻳﺖﺷﺎﻥ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺰﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻘــﺶ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻳﺨﻮﺍﻩ ﻭ ﻃﺮﻓــﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳــﻰ ﻛﻠﻴﺪﻯ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ .ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺳــﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ ،ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻴﻜــﻪ ﻗﻴﭽــﻰ ﺳﺎﻧﺴــﻮﺭ ﻛﻨــﺪ ﺷــﺪ ،ﻭ ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺏﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻰ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺩ ،ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﭘﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻰ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺑﺮﺧﺎﺳﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﻣﻠﺖ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ .ﺩﺭ ﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺄﺳﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺧﻮﺵﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ،ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻃﻰ ﺳــﻪ ﺩﻫﺔ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ، ﺗﺸــﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻭﭘﻮﺯﻳﺴــﻴﻮﻥ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ، ﺩﺭ ﺳــﻜﻮﻥ ﻭ »ﺍﻳﺴﺘﺎﺋﻰ« ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻭ ﭘﺎ ﺯﺩﻩ ،ﺳﻜﻮﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺮﺩﻩﺭﻳﮕﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ »ﺟﻨﮓﺳﺮﺩ« .ﺍﻳﻨﻬﻤﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻣﻮﺍﺝ ﺧﺮﻭﺷﺎﻥ ﺩﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﻓﻮﺭﺍﻥ ﺁﺗﺶﻓﺸﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺪﺍﻋﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ،ﺗﺎ ﺳﻜﻮﻥ ﻭ ﺁﺭﺍﻣﺶ ﻣﺮﺩﺍﺏ ﺭﺍ.