saeed saman

‫‪ 25‬ﺁﻭﺭﻳــﻞ ‪2011‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻭﻳــﮋﺓ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎﻯ ﺷــﻤﺎﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤــﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ »ﺭﻫﺒﺮ«‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ ﺗــﺎ ﻛﺠﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ؟ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ« ﺻﺮﻓﺎً ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺸﻪﻫﺎﻯﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻠﻨﻰ ﺷــﺪﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺗﻰ ﺟﺴــﺘﺠﻮ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﻭﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺪﻩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺷﺘﺎﺑﺰﺩﺓ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺗﻰ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺁﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﻔﻞ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻯ ‪ 22‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪ 57‬ﺑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳــﺘﺎ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﭽﻪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﻻﺋﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ!«‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺯﻯ ﻛــﻪ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕﻫــﺎﻯ ﺭﺃﻯ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﺸــﻴﺪﻩ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻬــﺎ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑــﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ »ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﮕﺎﻥ« ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ‬ ‫ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺣﻀﻮﺭﺵ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻗﻮﺓ ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺷــﺪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺍﺯﺍ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺸــﺎﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﭘﺲ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺳﺮﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺷــﻬﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﺵ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺴﻰ ﺑﻪ »ﻣﺴﺠﺪ« ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﺋﻰﺍﺵ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻛﺮﻣﻠﻴﻦ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺧﺮﺩﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺮﺑــﻰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺁﻣﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ‬ ‫»ﻣﺜﺒﺖ« ﭘــﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺍﺷــﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀــﺎﻯ »ﺩﻳﻦﺧﻮﺋﻰ« ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﺨﺴــﺖﻭﺯﻳﺮﻯ ﻣﻴﺮﺣﺴــﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺳﻮﻯ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺳــﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﺳﺎﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻯ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻢ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﺎﻧﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳــﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻏــﺮﺏ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ـ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺍﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ«‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﻧﻤﺎﻳــﺪ ـ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ‬

‫ﻧﺮﺳﻴﺪ! ﺭﺍﻳﺰﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻛﺎﻡ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺒﻌﺎﺕ »ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ« ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﺌﻠﻪ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻩﺑﻨﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﺳــﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺳﺎﻯ ﻗﻮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻘﻨﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻭﺑﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﺠﺎﻯ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺯﻣﻴﻨــﺔ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳــﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ »ﺩﻳﻦﺧﻮﺋﻰ«‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺸــﻰ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴــﺎﺋﻞ ﺟﺎﺭﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﻭﺍژﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺪﺍﻳﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺏ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻰ ﺷــﻬﺮﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﺍﻧﺪﻧﺪ! ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﺔ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺮﻭﺑﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺏ »ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻯ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺕ« ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺳــﺨﺮﻩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ »ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﮕﺰﺍﺭﻯ« ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻓﻨﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻏﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺁﺏ ﻓﺮﺍﻭﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻳﺪﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﺎﺧﺸﻨﻮﺩﻯ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ﻛﺎﻣ ً‬ ‫ﻼ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻭﺍﭘﺲﮔﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧــﻮﻉ »ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ«‪،‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﺻﻠﻰﺍﺵ »ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ« ﺑﻬﻴﻨﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﻫﺔ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺁﻧﮕﻠﻮﺳﺎﻛﺴﻮﻥﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻫــﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫــﺎﻯ »ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺗﻰ« ﻭ‬ ‫»ﻫﻨﺮﻯ« ﻭ ‪ ...‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺷــﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺣﺪﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﭘﻴﮕﻴﺮﻯ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟــﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﻃﻰ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺸﺎﺕ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺗﻰ« ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 1388‬ﺑﻪ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺮﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺳــﻮﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻨﺼﺮﻯ ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺑﮕﺮ ﻭ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻜﻴﻢ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﻫﺎﻯ »ﺩﻳﻦﺧﻮﺋــﻰ« ﺩﺭ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻋﻠﻨﻰ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻚ‬ ‫»ﻣﺮﺩﻡﺩﻭﺳــﺘﻰ« ﺍﺯ ﭼﻬــﺮﺓ ﻛﺮﻳــﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒــﺎﻥ ﻓﺮﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺷﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺴــﺨﺮﺓ »ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﻮﺭﺍﻧﻰ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺷــﻦﺿﻤﻴﺮ« ﻭ ﻋﺮﺑﺪﺓ »ﺍﷲﺍﻛﺒــﺮ« ﻭ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺰﺧﺮﻓﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ »ﺍﺳــﺘﻘﻼﻝ‪ ،‬ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻯ‪ ،‬ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ« ﻳﺎ‬

‫»ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ« ﺗﻮﺳــﻂ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﺵ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺷــﻬﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺷﺒﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻃــﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻــﻪ‪» ،‬ﺩﺭ« ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺎﺷــﻨﻪ ﻣﻰﭼﺮﺧﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒــﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻫــﺮ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺍﮔــﺮ ﻇﺎﻫــﺮﺍ ً ﺣﻜﻮﻣــﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻣﻰﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺳــﺮﻛﻮﺑﮕﺮﺍﻧﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺸــﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺷــﺮﻛﺎء ﺭﺍ ﺍﻳﻨﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺧﻮﺍﺳــﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻣﻰ« ﺍﺯ ﭘﻨﺠﺮﻩ »ﻭﺍﺭﺩ« ﻛﻨﻨﺪ!‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺍﺳــﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺭﻭﺳــﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﺍﻯ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺷﺎﻣﻮﺭﺗﻰﺑﺎﺯﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺲ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺑﺠﺎﺋﻰ ﻧﻤﻰﺑﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﺸــﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﺑﺎﻻ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ »ﺳــﻔﻴﺮ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎ«‪ ،‬ﻳﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺳــﺎﻳﻤﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﮔﺎﺱ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻑ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﺸــﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻮﺍﺭﻧﺎﻣﺔ ﺧﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺳــﻂ ﺳــﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺁﺗﻼﻧﺘﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﺷﺪ!‬ ‫ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺁﻣﺪ ﻓﺸﺮﺩﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﺮ ﻗﻮﺓ ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻟــﻰ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﮔﻔﺘﻪﺍﻳﻢ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻛﺸــﻴﺪﻥ ﮔﻠﻴﻢ ﺧــﻮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺏﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻣﺘﻼﻃﻢ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﺸــﻜﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﮕﻰ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﺤﻔﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨــﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴــﻦ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﺻﻮﻟﮕﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ »ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﺭﮔﺮﻯ« ﺑﻪ ﺷــﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﺟﻬﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺣﻴﺎﻯ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺗﺨﺮﻳﺐ ﭘﻞﻫــﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻛﻮﺩﺗﺎﻯ‬ ‫‪ 22‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ‪ 57‬ﺭﺍ ﺷــﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﻤﻰﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﺮ ﻳﺎ ﺯﻭﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺴــﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﻭﺩﺭﺭﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨــﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺍﺗﺐ ﺑــﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳــﺪ »ﻣﻴﻌــﺎﺩ« ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺷــﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩ! ﻃﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺡ‬ ‫»ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑــﺎﺕ«‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻫــﺎﻯ ﺁﺧﻮﻧــﺪﻯ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﮕﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫»ﺍﺻﻮﻟﮕﺮﺍﺋــﻰ« ﻭ »ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻣﺮ« ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺘــﺮﻝ ﺧﻮﺩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻨﺰﻭﻯ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻋﻤﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺁﺏ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﺏ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻳﺨــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﺰﺩﻳــﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺳــﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ ﺍﻣﺘــﺪﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑــﺎﺕ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻚ »ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻣﺮ« ﻣﺠﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤــﺖ ﺍﻧﻘﻴﺎﺩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺰﻭﺍ ﻣﻰﻛﺸــﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺟﺰ ﻫﻴﺎﻫﻮﺳﺎﻻﺭﻯ ﻣﻔﺮﻯ ﻧﻤﻰﺟﻮﻳﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎً ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫»ﻣــﺎﺭﻙﺩﺍﺭ« ﻓﺮﺍﻫــﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑــﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺑﺎﻃﻞ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺳﻴﺪﺧﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺯ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻧﻮ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺯﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺏ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﻜﻮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮ!‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ »ﺧﻮﺍﺏ ﺧﻮﺷــﻰ« ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﻳﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑــﻪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺖ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﭼﺮﺧﺸﻰ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮ ﻣﻰﺑﻮﺩ ﺳﻔﻴﺮ ﻣﻠﻜﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﻀــﺎﺡ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺪﺍﺭ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺪ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷــﻴﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺎً ﺩﻟﻴﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚﺷــﺒﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺯﺳــﺎﺯﻯ ﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﻔــﻊ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻫﻪ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴــﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﻯ ﻓﺮﺳﺎﻳﺸﻰ ﺳﻪﮔﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺷﻨﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻟﻴﺒﻰ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺣﻞ ﺑﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭ ﻛﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻥﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﺑﻪﻓﻠﻚ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﺓ ﻳﻤﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ؛ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺷﺮﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ »ﻛﺎﺥ ﺑﺎﻛﻬﻴﻨﮕﻬﺎﻡ« ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻪ ﺗﻨﮕﺔ‬

‫ﻫﺮﻣﺰ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﺥ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﻭ ﺟﺒﻞﺍﻟﻄﺎﺭﻕ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﺎﻟﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﻜــﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﮓﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑــﻪ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺭﻭﺍﻝ ﻣﻌﻬﻮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺿــﺮ ﺑــﻪ ﻧﻘﺶﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ! ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠــﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛــﻪ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﻨﺪﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﻩ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻻﺋﻞ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‪ .‬ﺭﻭﻳﺎﺭﻭﺋﻰﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﺷﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﺎﺭﻳﻜﺎﺗﻮﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﻴــﻢ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ ﻣﻠﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﺰﺍﺑــﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺎﻫﺮگﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓــﻼﺱ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻏﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻥﻧﺜﺎﺭﺵ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﻩ ﺟﻤﻜﺮﺍﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺎ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳــﻦ »ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ« ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻗﻄﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺑﻰﺍﻋﺘﺒــﺎﺭﻯ ﻭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﺷﻖ ﺩﻭﻣﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ؛ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻔﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺖ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ »ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ« ﺭﺍ ﻣﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻛﻨﺎﺭﻩﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺳــﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺴﺎﻁ »ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ« ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﺩ؛ ﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺗﻰ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎً ﺧﻨﺪﻩﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻓﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﺎﻓــﺖ ﻭ ﺑــﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺷــﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﻧﮕﻬﺒﺎﻥ ﺑــﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻔﻆ‬ ‫ﻇﺎﻫﺮ‪ ،‬ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﻣﻮﺳــﻮﻡ ﺑﻪ »ﻓﺘﻨﻪ«‪ ،‬ﻳﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫»ﻣﺎﺭﻙﺩﺍﺭ« ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻖ ﺷــﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻣﺤﺮﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ؛ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ »ﻋﻠﻰ« ﻣﻰﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺣﻮﺽﺍﺵ!‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﻄﻊ ﺳــﻌﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﻓﺸﺮﺩﻩﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﻭ ﭼﺸــﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺰﻭﺍﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ‪» ،‬ﺩﻭﺭ« ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻔﺘﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﻣﺸــﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗــﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﻣﺬﻛــﻮﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳــﺘﻴﻦ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﺷــﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ‬

‫ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﭼﺸﻢ ﺍﻣﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻼﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻮﺕﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﺳﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺳــﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪﻥ ﺧﺮ ﻟﻨﮓﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮ ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫»ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺖﺟﻮﻳﺎﻧﺔ« ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺧﻼﺹ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺁﻗﺎﺑﺎﻻﺳــﺮﻯ »ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ« ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺩﺳــﺖﺍﺵ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳﻨﮓ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟــﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﺒﻨــﺪﻯ ﺩﻭﻡ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻨــﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧــﮋﺍﺩ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﻭﺍﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﻛﻨﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻫﻢ ﺑﺮﭼﺴﺐ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻰﻗﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺷــﺮﻁ ﺍﺯ ﻭﻟﻰﻓﻘﻴﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺸــﺎﻧﻰﺍﺵ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻴﻒ »ﺍﭘﻮﺯﻳﺴــﻴﻮﻥ« ﺑﻨﺸــﻴﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑــﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺭﻭ ﺷــﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﭘﻨﻬﺎﻥﺷﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺖﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﺷــﻜﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻀﻌﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﭼﺸــﻤﮕﻴﺮ »ﺟﻨﺒﺶﺳــﺒﺰ« ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴــﻢ ﺑــﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻧــﺪ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﺘﺮﻧﺎﺗﻴــﻮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ! ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﺳــﺘﻌﻔﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺑﺎ »ﺍﺥﻭﺗﻒ« ﻭ ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎً ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ »ﺑﻴﺦﺩﻳﻮﺍﺭﻯ« ﺑﺎ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﺩﺭﺍﻥ ﻻﺭﻳﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺳﺮ ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﺳﺮ ﻫﻢ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‪ .‬ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﻜﺴﺖ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﺑﺮ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺠﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﺄﺻﻠﻰ ﺳﻬﻞ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺁﺳﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﺁﻣﺪﻥ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯ ﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺷﻖ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻖ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯﺍﺵ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﺋﻞ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻴﻢ؛‬ ‫ﺑــﺎﺯﻯ ﺟــﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﻮﺵﻭﮔﺮﺑﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻡ ﻣﻰﺑﺨﺸــﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﻣــﺎ ﭼﻨﻴــﻦ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻠﻰ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻪ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑــﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺶ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﭘﺲ ﭘﺮﺩﻩ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺷــﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑــﺎﻻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ ﺑﺮ‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﺔ »ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ـ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ« ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺍﺻﻄﻜﺎﻙﻫﺎﻯ ﺷــﺪﻳﺪﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑــﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻨﺠــﺎ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺯﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺷﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﺍﺳــﺮ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ ﻭ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛــﺰﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻧﻮﺭﺩﻳﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﭘﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻫﻴﭽﻜﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺯﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﺴــﺎﺋﻞ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ »ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻯ«‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﺳــﻌﻰ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻫﻢﭘﺎﻟﻜﻰﻫﺎﻯﺷﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟــﻰ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﺍﺏ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ »ﺳــﺎﻟﻢ« ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻜﺸــﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻘﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﻨﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺻﺤﻨﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻨﺎﺡﺑﻨﺪﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺗﺎ ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺣﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻳﺖﺷﺎﻥ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺰﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻘــﺶ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻳﺨﻮﺍﻩ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻃﺮﻓــﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﻣﻜﺮﺍﺳــﻰ ﻛﻠﻴﺪﻯ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺳــﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ‪ ،‬ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻴﻜــﻪ ﻗﻴﭽــﻰ ﺳﺎﻧﺴــﻮﺭ ﻛﻨــﺪ ﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻛﻮﺏﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻰ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﭘﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻰ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺑﺮﺧﺎﺳﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﻣﻠﺖ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺄﺳﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺁﻧﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺧﻮﺵﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻃﻰ ﺳــﻪ ﺩﻫﺔ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﺸــﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻭﭘﻮﺯﻳﺴــﻴﻮﻥ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺳــﻜﻮﻥ ﻭ »ﺍﻳﺴﺘﺎﺋﻰ« ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻭ ﭘﺎ ﺯﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﻜﻮﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺩﻩﺭﻳﮕﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ »ﺟﻨﮓﺳﺮﺩ«‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨﻬﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻣﻮﺍﺝ ﺧﺮﻭﺷﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﻓﻮﺭﺍﻥ ﺁﺗﺶﻓﺸﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺪﺍﻋﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﺳﻜﻮﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍﻣﺶ ﻣﺮﺩﺍﺏ ﺭﺍ‪.‬‬