Trends

September 30-OctOber 13, 2021 The Business Times News page 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Unemployment rate retreats s New business filings in Colorado, 39,252 in the second quarter, up 25.7% from the second quarter of 2020. Opinion Mesa County job orders hit record levels as labor demand increases Phil Castle The Business Times n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 109.3 in September, down 5.9. s Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs The Mesa County labor market hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic conditions, but a decreasing unemployment rate and growing labor force constitute what Curtis Englehart Business People Index for Colorado, 67.3 for the third quarter, up 2.9. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 100.1 for August, up 0.4. considers progress. “We’re going to get there,” said Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. Moreover, one measure of labor demand Almanac n Foreclosures has surged to record levels that not only surpass t Foreclosure filings in lagging supplies, but also exceed levels before Mesa County, 6 in the onset of the COVID pandemic, Englehart August, down from 4 in said. “The jobs are back. The demand is back.” August 2020. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment t Foreclosure sales in rate fell eight-tenths of a point to 5.7 percent Mesa County, 0 in in August, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado August, down from 2 in Department of Labor and Employment. That matches the lowest August 2020. level since October. At this time last year, the rate stood at 6.8 percent. n Indexes For August 2021, Mesa County payrolls increased 1,359 to 72,309. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully s Conference Board Employment looking for work decreased 568 to 4,357. The labor force, which Trends Index, 110.37 for includes the employed and unemployed, grew 791 to 76,666. August, up 0.48. Compared to a year ago, payrolls have increased 1,331. The s Conference Board Leading ranks of the unemployed have decreased 791. The labor force has Economic Index 117.1 for August, up 0.9%. grown 540. Englehart said the jobless rate has steadily decreased and the s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 59.9% for August, up 0.4%. labor force grown, although at a slower pace than he anticipated. A federal stipend added to unemployment benefits was among the factors that’s made some people reluctant to rejoin the work force, he said. But other factors also have played roles, including n Lodging difficulty finding child care and anxiety over going back to work s Lodging tax collections in in a pandemic. Grand Junction, $211,635 for August, up 75.9% from August 2020. Index: U.S. consumers shaken, not stirred

AREA JOBLESS RATES Labor demand has surged, however. The number of job orders posted at the Mesa t Delta County t Garfield County t Mesa County t Montrose County t Rio Blanco County Aug. 5.0 4.6 5.7 5.1 5.2 July 5.2 5.1 6.5 5.4 5.3 County Workforce Center has doubled compared to a year ago, Englehart said. For August, 1,038 orders were posted, up from 536 for the same month a year ago. Through the first eight months of 2021, 7,597 job orders were posted. That’s up from 3,988 orders for the same span in 2020. While the gains reflect in part the effects of the pandemic in 2020, they also surpass the 5,300 orders posted in the same span in 2019 and what was at that time a strong economy with low unemployment, Englehart said. “The demand is there, we just need to make sure the supply is there to fill it.” He expects more supply to become available, driving down the jobless rate and bolstering the labor force through the reminder of the year. “We’re still seeing progress.” Curtis Englehart Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also declined in neighboring counties in August: a half point to 4.6 percent in Garfield County, three-tenths of a point to 5.1 percent in Montrose County, two-tenths of a point to 5 percent in Delta County and a tenth of a point to 5.2 percent in Rio Blanco County. The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell two-tenths of a point to 5.9 percent, dropping below 6 percent for the first time since March 2020. Nonfarm payrolls increased 5,600 between July and August with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sectors. Over the past year, payrolls have increased 117,400. Over the past 16 months, Colorado has regained 293,400 of the 375,800 jobs lost between February and April 2020 because of the pandemic and related restrictions. The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls remained unchanged over the past year at 34.3 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $1.50 to $32.19. F

n Real estate

s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 544 in August, up 0.37% from August 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $221 million in August, up 39.9% from August 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.9 million for August, up 18.2% from August 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.2 million for August, up 15.7% from August 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 5.7% for August, down 0.8.

t Colorado — 5.9% for August, down 0.2. t United States — 5.2% for August, down 0.2.

A measure of consumer confidence continues to decline as concerns mount over the COVID-19 pandemic as well as business and labor conditions.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell 5.9 points to 109.3 in September. Components of the index tracking assessments of current conditions as well as short-term outlooks retreated. With declines in each of the last two months, the Consumer Confidence Index has dropped 19.6 points from a recent peak of 128.9 in June “These back-to-back declines suggest consumers have grown more cautious and are likely to curtail spending going forward,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

Franco said consumer confidence dropped in September as the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 continued to dampen optimism. Consumers also worried about the economy and the prospects for short-term growth. Concerns over inflation eased, but remained elevated.

While the Consumer Confidence Index remains high enough by historical standards to suggest continued growth over the short term, spending plans for autos, homes and major appliances retreated, she said.

The business research and membership group bases the index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Less upbeat assessments of current conditions pulled down the present situation component of the index 5.5 points to 143.4.

The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the September index was based who described business conditions as ‘good” fell nine-tenths of a point to 19.3 percent. The share of those who called conditions “bad” rose 1.3 points to 25.4 percent.

The proportion of those who said jobs are “plentiful” rose three-tenths of a point to 55.9 percent. But the share of those who said jobs are “hard to get” rose 2.2 points to 13.4 percent.

Less optimistic outlooks pushed down the expectations component of the index down 6.2 points to 86.6.

The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months fell 1.9 points to 21.5 percent. The proportion of those expected worsening conditions rose two-tenths of a point to 17.6 percent.

The share of consumers who expected more jobs to become available in coming months fell 1.6 points to 21.5 percent. The proportion of those anticipating fewer jobs increased 2.3 points to 20.3 percent.

While 17.3 percent of consumers said they expected their incomes to increase — a drop of nine-tenths of a point — another 11.5 percent anticipated earning less. That’s an increase of 1.6 points.

Lynn Franco

The Business Times

SePtember 30-OctOber 13, 2021

Leading index signals U.S. growth through 2021

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth for the remainder of the year.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose nine-tenths of a percent to 117.1 in August. Separate measures of current and past performance also increased.

Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic reserch at the Conference Board, said the Leading Economic Index remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. “While the Delta variant — alongside rising inflation fears — could create headwinds for labor markets and the consumer spending outlook in the near term, the trend in the LEI is consistent with robust economic growth in the remainder of the year,” he said.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, is expected to increase on a year-over-year basis 6 percent in 2021 and 4 percent in 2020, Ozyildirim said.

GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the second quarter and 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021.

The Leading Economic Index has increased 6.4 percent over the past six months with widespread strengths among the indicators.

For August, eight of 10 indicators advanced, including building permits, interest rate spread, new orders for both consumer and capital goods, a new orders index and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits and a leading credit index also bolstered the index. Consumer expectations for business conditions declined.

Averagely weekly manufacturing hours held steady. The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 105.9. The index has increased 2.8 percent over the past six months. For August, all four indicators advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. The Lagging Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 106.3. The index has increased a half of a percent over the past three months. Ataman Ozyildirim For August, three of seven components advanced: consumer credit, labor costs and inventories. Commercial and industrial financing and the cost of services retreated. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks remained unchanged.

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