Trends

February 3-16, 2022 The Business Times News Page 15 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Jobless rate retreats t New business filings in Colorado, 38,211 in the third quarter, down 1.2% from the third quarter of 2020. Opinion 2021 ends with lowest unemployment level of the year in Mesa County Phil Castle The Business Times n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 113.8 for January, down 1.4. s Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs The monthly unemployment rate continues to retreat in Mesa County, edging down in December to end 2021 at the lowest Business People Index for Colorado, 58 for the first quarter, up 1.9. s National Federation of Independent Business Small level of the year and offering encouragement the trend will continue in 2022. “It’s a really good sign as we continue on Almanac Business Optimism Index the road to recovery,” said Curtis Englehart, 98.9 for December, up 0.5. director of the Mesa County Workforce Center n Foreclosures in Mesa County. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment s Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 6 in January, up from 0 in January 2021. rate edged down a tenth of a point to 4.6 percent in December, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.s Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 1 in January, up from 0 in January 2021. The jobless rate declined in nine out of 12 months in 2021, falling from a high of 8 percent in January. At this time last year, the rate stood at 7.2 percent. The unemployment rate traditionally spikes in Mesa County n Indexes in January to the highest level of the year with layoffs following s Conference Board Employment the holidays and winter weather affecting outdoor work. Trends Index, 116.63 for Englehart said he still expects an increase in January 2022, December, up 0.99. but perhaps not as severe. The January labor estimates aren’t s Conference Board Leading scheduled for release until March 14 because of annual revisions Economic Index 120.8 for to statistics for the previous year. December, up 0.8%. Between November and December 2021, Mesa County t Institute for Supply Management payrolls decreased 140 to 73,539. But the number of people counted Purchasing Managers Index among those unsuccessfully looking for work also decreased — for manufacturing, 57.6% for 115 to 3,518. January, down 1.2%. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, n Lodging fell 255 to 77,057. That ended a streak of four months of gains. Compared to a year ago, payrolls increased 2,507 even as the s Lodging tax collections in ranks of the unemployed decreased 1,983. The labor force grew 524. Grand Junction, $219,599 Englehart said labor market demand as measured by the for December, up 60.3% from November 2020. number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center has increased to the highest levels he’s seen during his five years n Real estate as director. AREA JOBLESS RATES For December, 991 job orders were posted. That’s a nearly 49 percent increase t Delta County t Garfield County t Mesa County t Montrose County t Rio Blanco County Dec. 4.0 3.8 4.6 4.0 4.4 Nov. 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.3 4.7 over the same month last year. For all of 2021, 11,799 orders were posted. That’s an increase of more than 77 percent over 2020. “It’s a job seeker’s market,” he said. While employers have struggled to fill openings, they’ve also changed hiring processes, emphasized benefits and company cultures and raised wages, he said. The Mesa County Workforce Center will join with the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce to present a free webinar on expediting hiring processes. The online event is set for 10 to 11 a.m. Feb. 8. Registration is available through the chamber website at https://gjchamber.org. For the program year running from July 1, 2020 through June 30, 2021, 7,938 people were employed within six months of Curtis Englehart seeking services at the center, Englehart said. Moreover, 741 local employers also received assistance during that span. “They are really good numbers.” Looking ahead to 2022, Englehart said he expects the unemployment rate to continue to decline even as the Mesa County economy recovers. But the pace likely will be gradual. Seasonal unadjusted unemployment rates also retreated between November and December in neighboring Western Colorado counties — four-tenths of a point to 3.8 percent in Garfield County and three-tenths of a point to 4 percent in Delta and Montrose counties and 4.4 percent in Rio Blanco County. The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell three-tenths of a point to 4.8 percent as nonfarm payrolls grew 9,000. Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls increased 152,000 with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; business and professional services; and trade, transportation and utility sectors. Over the past 20 months, Colorado has regained 335,500 of the 375,800 jobs lost between February and April 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls decreased three-tenths of an hour to 33.2 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $2.08 to $33.28. F

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 376 in January, down 3.8% from January 2021. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $163 million in January, up 40.5% from January 2021. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.6 million for December, up 22% from December 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4 million for December, up 24.3% from December 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 4.6% for December, down 0.1

t Colorado — 4.8% for December, down 0.3. t United States — 3.9% for December, down 0.3.

Consumer Confidence Index declines

A measure of consumer confidence has retreated on less upbeat expectations for business and labor conditions.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 113.8 in January. A component of the index tracking current conditions increased. But a component tracking the short-term outlook dropped.

“Expectations about short-term growth prospects weakened, pointing to a likely moderation in growth during the first quarter of 2022,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

Still, a growing proportion of consumers said they plan to buy homes, automobiles and major appliances over the next six months, Franco said.

The Conference Board bases the index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

More upbeat assessments of current conditions pushed up the present situation component of the index 3.4 points from December to 148.2.

The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the January index was based who said business conditions were “good” rose 1.7 points to 21.1 percent. The share of those who said conditions were “bad” dropped 1.5 points to 25.6 percent. The proportion of those who said jobs were “plentiful” fell eight-tenths of a point to 55.1 percent. But the share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” also fell — four-tenths of a point to 11.3 percent. Less optimistic outlooks for the next six months pulled down the expectations component of the index 4.6 points to 90.8. The share of consumers who said they expect business Lynn Franco conditions to improve fell 1.6 points to 23.8 percent. The proportion of those who said they expect conditions to worsen rose four-tenths of a point to 19 percent. The share of those who expected more jobs to become available in the months ahead fell 1.5 points to 22.7 percent. The proportion of those anticipated fewer jobs rose a point to 15.7 percent. While 16.7 percent of consumers said they expected their incomes to increase — down eight-tenths of a point — 12.4 percent said they anticipated their incomes will decrease. That’s up 1.2 points.

The Business Times

February 3-16, 2022

Leading index forecasts U.S. growth

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) advanced eight-tenths of a percent to 120.8 in December. Separate measures of current and past conditions also increased. “The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, the senior director of economic research at Ataman Ozyildirim the Conference Board. The COVID-19 pandemic, labor shortages, rising inflation and expected interest rate increases could moderate growth during the first quarter of 2022, Ozyildirim said, but the expansion should accelerate after that to above the pre-pandemic trend.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 35 percent for 2022, he said.

Over the past six months, the LEI has increased 4 percent, less than the 4.4 percent over the six months before that. Strengths among the leading indicators remain widespread, however,

For December, eight of 10 components of the LEI advanced, including building permits, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for both consumer and capital goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Consumer expectations for business conditions worsened. The average weekly manufacturing work week remained unchanged.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 107.4. The index has increased 1.3 percent over the past six months.

For December, three of four indicators advanced: nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 109.4. The index has increased six-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For December, three of seven components advanced, including commercial and industrial financing and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also boosted the index. Labor and services costs declined, as did consumer credit. The average prime rates charged by banks held steady. F